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DOE OSTI2020

Development and Clustering of Rate-Oriented Load Metrics for Customer Price-Plan Analysis

One of the few methods electric utilities can use to motivate and change customer energy consumption is through retail rate structures. Utilities are increasingly moving toward more dynamic rate plans to encourage energy conservation, utilization of onsite renewable generation, peak demand reduction and flattening of demand profiles. This paper creates a set of rate-oriented load metrics that are the determinants of customers' bills under four unique rate plans. These metrics are not only indicative of which rate structure can provide customer bill reductions based on their load profile characteristics, but also convey useful information about load consumption behavior. With these metrics, utilities can analyze their customers and identify classes that are rewarded under each rate plan. This can help inform utilities whether the customers rewarded under each rate plans are meeting their original objectives. To develop these customer classes, we calculate these rate-oriented load metrics for each customer and perform k-means clustering. The analysis is conducted on a set of 300 customer profiles, examining four different rate plans, different numbers of clusters, customer bills and cluster load profile characteristics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2004

National Airspace System Delay Estimation Using Weather Weighted Traffic Counts

Assessment of National Airspace System performance, which is usually measured in terms of delays resulting from the application of traffic flow management initiatives in response to weather conditions, volume, equipment outages and runway conditions, is needed both for guiding flow control decisions during the day of operations and for post operations analysis. Comparison of the actual delay, resulting from the traffic flow management initiatives, with the expected delay, based on traffic demand and other conditions, provides the assessment of the National Airspace System performance. This paper provides a method for estimating delay using the expected traffic demand and weather. In order to identify the cause of delays, 517 days of National Airspace System delay data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration s Operations Network were analyzed. This analysis shows that weather is the most important causal factor for delays followed by equipment and runway delays. Guided by these results, the concept of weather weighted traffic counts as a measure of system delay is described. Examples are given to show the variation of these counts as a function of time of the day. The various datasets, consisting of aircraft position data, enroute severe weather data, surface wind speed and visibility data, reported delay data and number of aircraft handled by the Centers data, and their sources are described. The procedure for selecting reference days on which traffic was minimally impacted by weather is described. Different traffic demand on each reference day of the week, determined by analysis of 42 days of traffic and delay data, was used as the expected traffic demand for each day of the week. Next, the method for computing the weather weighted traffic counts using the expected traffic demand, derived from reference days, and the expanded regions around severe weather cells is discussed. It is shown via a numerical example that this approach improves the dynamic range of the weather weighted traffic counts considerably. Time histories of these new weather weighted traffic counts are used for synthesizing two statistical features, six histogram features and six time domain features. In addition to these enroute weather features, two surface weather features of number of major airports in the United States with high mean winds and low mean visibility are also described. A least squares procedure for establishing a functional relation between the features, using combinations of these features, and system delays is explored using 36 days of data. Best correlations between the estimated delays using the functional relation and the actual delays provided by the Operations Network are obtained with two different combinations of features: 1) six time domain features of weather weighted traffic counts plus two surface weather features, and 2) six histogram features and mean of weather weighted traffic counts along with the two surface weather features. Correlation coefficient values of 0.73 and 0.83 were found in these two instances.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of Digital Twin Predictive Model for PWR Components: Updates on Multi Times Series Temperature Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network, DMW Fatigue Tests, System Level Thermal-Mechanical-Stress Analysis

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plant (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years, can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Frequent NDE requirement may lead to frequent shutdown of the NPP. This in turn can lead to power outage and additional NDE-inspection-cost related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing more digital approach such as by using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. Towards this goal Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is working on the development of a DT framework that can be used for real time environmental fatigue prediction of reactor components. The DT framework is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics such as finite element (FE) based modeling tools. Towards this overall goal, following are some of the major contributions made during the FY21: 1) Multiple 82/182 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) specimens (both solid-weld and joint-weld representing the actual reactor multi-metal nozzles) were fatigue tested. The resulting fatigue lives were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. Additionally, the results of 52/152 DMW fatigue specimens (which were recently tested at Republic of Korea under the sponsorship of International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative - INERI program) were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. From the comparison of 82/182 and 52/152 DMW test data with NUREG-6909 best-fit curve, most of the reported test data fall way away from the NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit or mean curve. The NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit curve is the best-fit curve of austenitic stainless steel and due to lack of enough data on Nickel-based welds, this is currently being used for predicting the life of Nickel-alloy-based welded components. However, the above observation may require higher scaling factor (e.g., ASME suggested factor of 20 on cycles rather than the current NUREG-6909 suggested factor of 12 on cycles) for scaling the austenitic-stainless-steel best-fit-curve for estimating the design or safe-life of a welded component. Accordingly, for example, if a DMW component experience a strain amplitude of 0.6% the PWR-water life of the component would be 52 cycles instead of 85 cycles. However, more DMW tests are required to further ascertain the above-mentioned observations. 2) A system level CAD and finite element model were developed which consists of reactor pressure vessel (RPV), part of steam generator (SG), part of pressurizer (PRZ), hot leg (HL), and surge line (SL). This is with detailed nozzle geometry and thermal-mechanical material properties of different metals to simulate realistic thermal-mechanical stress under connected system global thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. 3) Different system level heat transfer analyses were performed with estimation of relevant heat transfer coefficients. The resulting data were used in subsequent system level thermal-mechanical stress analysis and for generating spatial-temporal training and validation data for a system level digital-twin based temperature predictor. Transient heat transfer analyses were performed considering thermal boundary condition under design-basis (DB) loading and EDF (Électricité de France) data-based grid-load-following (EDF-GLF) loading cycles. 4) System level thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed for identifying damage-prone hotspots and for future extension of the model for cyclic state prediction. From the system-level model simulation under DB loading cycle it is found that HL and the SL nozzle that connect to the HL can experience significant stress and strain and could be one of the weakest links in the overall reactor coolant system (RCS). 5) An AI/ML based DT model was developed for multi-time-series temperature prediction at any inside/outside thickness locations of PWR pressure boundary components. This is by using Recurrent-neural-network (RNN) and keras machine learning libraries. The RNN model was validated against two laboratory test-based data sets with one obtained through ANL’s in-air fatigue test system and other through PWR-water test loop. The experimentally validated DT model further validated against FE model results to predict thermal scarification related spatialtemporal temperatures at random locations of a component. The well validated DT model was then used for demonstrating spatial-temporal temperature prediction under 100+ years of reactor operation subjected to combined DB, EDF-GLF and randomized grid-load-following (RANDOMGLF) loading Cycles. The expert-elicitation DT model framework was developed assuming field/input/process measurements can be available from a few existing plant sensors and can readily be used by the NPP operators. The above temperature prediction model will feed to the next-step stress analysis model based on which the life of a component can be predicted in realtime, which is one of our future works.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1981

Comparisons of global ozone trends inferred from the BUV experiment on Nimbus 4 and the ground-based network

Preliminary comparisons between global ozone burdens derived from the backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) experiment on Nimbus 4 and those inferred from an analysis of ground-based network data seem to indicate significant differences in the inter-annual variability of ozone. Some of the observed differences may be due to improper weighting of the ground-based network data, slowly changing planetary wave structure over the fixed station, of small inter-annual changes in meridional transport parameters. There is also some evidence which indicates that the polar stratosphere at high latitudes may represent an important ozone storage resevoir which tends to compensate for large scale changes observed in the regions outside of the polar stratosphere. Possible consequences of this are that the global trends derived from ground based ozone measurements may not be valid and furthermore that the current satellite techniques by themselves may be sufficient. An ozone monitoring system which includes observations from satellites, ground-based stations, balloons and rockets may be necessary.

Heath, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

Model Error↗

NASA NTRS1991

High resolution ultrasonic spectroscopy system for nondestructive evaluation

With increased demand for high resolution ultrasonic evaluation, computer based systems or work stations become essential. The ultrasonic spectroscopy method of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) was used to develop a high resolution ultrasonic inspection system supported by modern signal processing, pattern recognition, and neural network technologies. The basic system which was completed consists of a 386/20 MHz PC (IBM AT compatible), a pulser/receiver, a digital oscilloscope with serial and parallel communications to the computer, an immersion tank with motor control of X-Y axis movement, and the supporting software package, IUNDE, for interactive ultrasonic evaluation. Although the hardware components are commercially available, the software development is entirely original. By integrating signal processing, pattern recognition, maximum entropy spectral analysis, and artificial neural network functions into the system, many NDE tasks can be performed. The high resolution graphics capability provides visualization of complex NDE problems. The phase 3 efforts involve intensive marketing of the software package and collaborative work with industrial sectors.

Chen, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A genomic regulatory network for development

Development of the body plan is controlled by large networks of regulatory genes. A gene regulatory network that controls the specification of endoderm and mesoderm in the sea urchin embryo is summarized here. The network was derived from large-scale perturbation analyses, in combination with computational methodologies, genomic data, cis-regulatory analysis, and molecular embryology. The network contains over 40 genes at present, and each node can be directly verified at the DNA sequence level by cis-regulatory analysis. Its architecture reveals specific and general aspects of development, such as how given cells generate their ordained fates in the embryo and why the process moves inexorably forward in developmental time.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2021

Persistent Acoustic Sensing for Monitoring A Reactor Facility

Measurements over the past few years, taking place within the Multi-Informatics for Nuclear Operations Scenarios project, show that infrasound and low-frequency acoustic monitoring can detect, and often quantify, activities that occur on-site at the High Flux Isotope Reactor. Observable activities include: crane translation, lifting, and lowering; differentiation between loaded and unloaded crane operations; access door opening and closing; vehicle operations; and cooling tower fan operations. Advanced data analytic and spectral feature extraction methods can be used to interpret selected signatures to reach a deeper understanding of different reactor activities. These measurements are being conducted using a network of smartphones that continuously operate in conjunction with cloud-based architectures. A recent addition to the system is the development and deployment of a real-time, cloud-based analytic framework that supports near-real-time alarming which can facilitate tip-and-cue protocols. This paper presents recent research in this area including the use of low-frequency acoustics to tip-off transfer operations and cue a more comprehensive analysis by other sensor networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

End-to-end Analytics for Grid Arch Design & All-hazard Assessment

Resiliency, reliability, and security of the next-generation smart grid depend upon leveraging advanced communication and computing technologies, integrating them with physical power systems, and developing real-time, fast, data-based applications to help in wide-area monitoring and control of the grid. Using a high sampling data rate from phasor measurement units (PMUs) to develop applications has opened the door to achieving the next-generation grid requirements. The North American Synchrophasor Initiative Network (NASPlnet) was developed in 2007-09 to create a standard and guide for PMU data exchanges. With the advancement in both networking and grid requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of different NASPInet versions and their impact on applications. Therefore, we need a cyber-power cosimulation framework that supports very large-scale co-simulation capable of running in parallel, high-performance computing platforms and capturing real-life network behavior. This work presents a cyber-physical co-simulation testbed using NS3 to model the communication network, GridPACK to model the power grid, and HELICS as a co-simulation engine. Comparative analysis of latency in synchrophasor networks and a performance evaluation of a power system stabilizer application based on PMU data in an Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 39-bus test system is presented using this co-simulation testbed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1993

Applications of CCSDS recommendations to Integrated Ground Data Systems (IGDS)

This paper describes an application of the CCSDS Principle Network (CPH) service model to communications network elements of a postulated Integrated Ground Data System (IGDS). Functions are drawn principally from COSMICS (Cosmic Information and Control System), an integrated space control infrastructure, and the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Core System (ECS). From functional requirements, this paper derives a set of five communications network partitions which, taken together, support proposed space control infrastructures and data distribution systems. Our functional analysis indicates that the five network partitions derived in this paper should effectively interconnect the users, centers, processors, and other architectural elements of an IGDS. This paper illustrates a useful application of the CCSDS (Consultive Committee for Space Data Systems) Recommendations to ground data system development.

Mizuta, Hiroshi↗

NASA NTRS1996

Distributed Large Data-Object Environments: End-to-End Performance Analysis of High Speed Distributed Storage Systems in Wide Area ATM Networks

We have developed and deployed a distributed-parallel storage system (DPSS) in several high speed asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) wide area networks (WAN) testbeds to support several different types of data-intensive applications. Architecturally, the DPSS is a network striped disk array, but is fairly unique in that its implementation allows applications complete freedom to determine optimal data layout, replication and/or coding redundancy strategy, security policy, and dynamic reconfiguration. In conjunction with the DPSS, we have developed a 'top-to-bottom, end-to-end' performance monitoring and analysis methodology that has allowed us to characterize all aspects of the DPSS operating in high speed ATM networks. In particular, we have run a variety of performance monitoring experiments involving the DPSS in the MAGIC testbed, which is a large scale, high speed, ATM network and we describe our experience using the monitoring methodology to identify and correct problems that limit the performance of high speed distributed applications. Finally, the DPSS is part of an overall architecture for using high speed, WAN's for enabling the routine, location independent use of large data-objects. Since this is part of the motivation for a distributed storage system, we describe this architecture.

Johnston, William↗

NASA NTRS2009

Flight Test Comparison of Different Adaptive Augmentations for Fault Tolerant Control Laws for a Modified F-15 Aircraft

This report describes the improvements and enhancements to a neural network based approach for directly adapting to aerodynamic changes resulting from damage or failures. This research is a follow-on effort to flight tests performed on the NASA F-15 aircraft as part of the Intelligent Flight Control System research effort. Previous flight test results demonstrated the potential for performance improvement under destabilizing damage conditions. Little or no improvement was provided under simulated control surface failures, however, and the adaptive system was prone to pilot-induced oscillations. An improved controller was designed to reduce the occurrence of pilot-induced oscillations and increase robustness to failures in general. This report presents an analysis of the neural networks used in the previous flight test, the improved adaptive controller, and the baseline case with no adaptation. Flight test results demonstrate significant improvement in performance by using the new adaptive controller compared with the previous adaptive system and the baseline system for control surface failures.

Burken, John J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Resilience Planning for Networked Microgrids: A Case Study of Puerto Rico

Microgrids can be designed to enhance the energy resilience of communities and critical infrastructures, such as hospitals, data centers, and communication networks, which are vulnerable to frequent weather-related disruption. Coordinating multiple microgrids in a network can leverage the geographical diversity of load and generation resources while enabling resilient and cost-effective planning of the distribution system. Designing a networked microgrid is complex, involving intricate technical assessment, cost-benefit analysis, site-specific requirements, and the evaluation of existing resources. Therefore, this paper proposes a hierarchical resilience planning framework and performs an extensive techno-economic analysis for the design of a networked microgrid. Hierarchical resilience planning involves technology sizing at an individual community level to meet the critical load and satisfy resilience criteria, and resource optimization at networked microgrid level to provide a higher level of resilience and energy adequacy. A real-world case of Puerto Rico's cooperative microgrid “Microrred de la Montaña” is investigated considering localized electricity tariffs, site-specific demand profiles, solar generation, and existing hydro resources. Multiple optimization scenarios are developed based on the resiliency requirement to estimate the capacity of solar photovoltaic and battery energy storage (BES) to be installed at each substation. The results provide the optimal sizing for individual community and networked microgrid to withstand 1day and 3-day outages along with the criteria for critical load.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2004

Intelligent Control for the BEES Flyer

This paper describes the effort to provide a preliminary capability analysis and a neural network based adaptive flight control system for the JPL-led BEES aircraft project. The BEES flyer was envisioned to be a small, autonomous platform with sensing and control systems mimicking those of biological systems for the purpose of scientific exploration on the surface of Mars. The platform is physically tightly constrained by the necessity of efficient packing within rockets for the trip to Mars. Given the physical constraints, the system is not an ideal configuration for aerodynamics or stability and control. The objectives of this effort are to evaluate the aerodynamics characteristics of the existing design, to make recommendaaons as to potential improvements and to provide a control system that stabilizes the existing aircraft for nominal flight and damaged conditions. Towards this several questions are raised and analyses are presented to arrive at answers to some of the questions raised. CART3D, a high-fidelity inviscid analysis package for conceptual and preliminary aerodynamic design, was used to compute a parametric set of solutions over the expected flight domain. Stability and control derivatives were extracted from the database and integrated with the neural flight control system. The Integrated Vehicle Modeling Environment (IVME) was also used for estimating aircraft geometric, inertial, and aerodynamic characteristics. A generic neural flight control system is used to provide adaptive control without the requirement for extensive gain scheduling or explicit system identification. The neural flight control system uses reference models to specify desired handling qualities in the roll, pitch, and yaw axes, and incorporates both pre-trained and on-line learning neural networks in the inverse model portion of the controller. Results are presented for the BEES aircraft in the subsonic regime for terrestrial and Martian environments.

Krishnakumar, K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning of structural morphology imaged by scanning X-ray diffraction microscopy

Scanning X-ray nanodiffraction microscopy is a powerful technique for spatially resolving nanoscale structural morphologies by diffraction contrast. One of the critical challenges in experimental nanodiffraction data analysis is posed by the convergence angle of nanoscale focusing optics which creates simultaneous dependency of the far-field scattering data on three independent components of the local strain tensor-corresponding to dilation and two potential rigid body rotations of the unit cell. All three components are in principle resolvable through a spatially mapped sample tilt series; however, traditional data analysis is computationally expensive and prone to artifacts. In this study, we implement NanobeamNN, a convolutional neural network specifically tailored to the analysis of scanning probe X-ray microscopy data. NanobeamNN learns lattice strain and rotation angles from simulated diffraction of a focused X-ray nanobeam by an epitaxial thin film and can directly make reasonable predictions on experimental data without the need for additional fine-tuning. We demonstrate that this approach represents a significant advancement in computational speed over conventional methods, as well as a potential improvement in accuracy over the current standard.

Luo, Aileen [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lavoisier: A Low Altitude Balloon Network for Probing the Deep Atmosphere and Surface of Venus

The in-situ exploration of the low atmosphere and surface of Venus is clearly the next step of Venus exploration. Understanding the geochemistry of the low atmosphere, interacting with rocks, and the way the integrated Venus system evolved, under the combined effects of inner planet cooling and intense atmospheric greenhouse, is a major challenge of modern planetology. Due to the dense atmosphere (95 bars at the surface), balloon platforms offer an interesting means to transport and land in-situ measurement instruments. Due to the large Archimede force, a 2 cubic meter He-pressurized balloon floating at 10 km altitude may carry up to 60 kg of payload. LAVOISIER is a project submitted to ESA in 2000, in the follow up and spirit of the balloon deployed at cloud level by the Russian Vega mission in 1986. It is composed of a descent probe, for detailed noble gas and atmosphere composition analysis, and of a network of 3 balloons for geochemical and geophysical investigations at local, regional and global scales.

Chaasefiere, E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Shaping of Grid Response of Multi-Machine Multi-Inverter Systems Through Grid-Forming IBRs

We consider the problem of controlling the frequency response of weakly-coupled multi-machine multi-inverter low-inertia power systems via grid-forming inverter-based resources (IBRs). In contrast to existing methods, our approach relies on dividing the larger system into multiple strongly-coupled subsystems, without ignoring either the underlying network or approximating the subsystem response as an aggregate harmonic mean model. Rather, through a structured clustering and recursive dynamic shaping approach, the frequency response of the overall system to load perturbations is shaped appropriately. We demonstrate the proposed approach for a three-node triangular configuration and a small-scale radial network. Furthermore, previous synchronization analysis for heterogeneous systems requires the machines to satisfy certain proportionality property. In our approach, the effective transfer functions for each cluster can be tuned by the IBRs to satisfy such property, enabling us to apply the shaping control to systems with a wider range of heterogeneous machines.

frequency-shaping control↗

DOE OSTI2022

Online Learning and Pricing for Network Revenue Management with Reusable Resources

We consider a price-based network revenue management problem with multiple products and multiple reusable resources. Each randomly arriving customer requests a product (service) that needs to occupy a sequence of reusable resources (servers). We adopt an incomplete information setting where the firm does not know the price-demand function for each product and the goal is to dynamically set prices of all products to maximize the total expected revenue of serving customers. We propose novel batched bandit learning algorithms for finding near-optimal pricing policies, and show that they admit a near-optimal cumulative regret bound of $O(J\sqrt{XT})$, where J, X, and T, are the numbers of products, candidate prices, and service periods, respectively. As part of our regret analysis, we develop the first finite-time mixing time analysis of an open network queueing system (i.e., the celebrated Jackson Network), which could be of independent interest. Our numerical studies show that the proposed approaches perform consistently well.

42 ENGINEERING↗