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At least 991 records · Page 55

System Level Uncertainty Assessment for Collaborative RLV Design

A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.

Charania, A. C.↗

Summary of the key features of seven biomathematical models of human fatigue and performance

BACKGROUND: Biomathematical models that quantify the effects of circadian and sleep/wake processes on the regulation of alertness and performance have been developed in an effort to predict the magnitude and timing of fatigue-related responses in a variety of contexts (e.g., transmeridian travel, sustained operations, shift work). This paper summarizes key features of seven biomathematical models reviewed as part of the Fatigue and Performance Modeling Workshop held in Seattle, WA, on June 13-14, 2002. The Workshop was jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command, Office of Naval Research, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, and U.S. Department of Transportation. METHODS: An invitation was sent to developers of seven biomathematical models that were commonly cited in scientific literature and/or supported by government funding. On acceptance of the invitation to attend the Workshop, developers were asked to complete a survey of the goals, capabilities, inputs, and outputs of their biomathematical models of alertness and performance. Data from the completed surveys were summarized and juxtaposed to provide a framework for comparing features of the seven models. RESULTS: Survey responses revealed that models varied greatly relative to their reported goals and capabilities. While all modelers reported that circadian factors were key components of their capabilities, they differed markedly with regard to the roles of sleep and work times as input factors for prediction: four of the seven models had work time as their sole input variable(s), while the other three models relied on various aspects of sleep timing for model input. Models also differed relative to outputs: five sought to predict results from laboratory experiments, field, and operational data, while two models were developed without regard to predicting laboratory experimental results. All modelers provided published papers describing their models, with three of the models being proprietary. CONCLUSIONS: Although all models appear to have been fundamentally influenced by the two-process model of sleep regulation by Borbely, there is considerable diversity among them in the number and type of input and output variables, and their stated goals and capabilities.

Fatigue/physiopathology↗

A Framework for Mesh-Geometry Associativity during Mesh Adaptation

A framework has been developed for describing how a computational mesh is associated to the geometry model it discretizes. The target application of this framework is surface mesh adaptation in a CFD flow solver. The framework, called MeshLink, consists of two components. First, a schema has been defined for describing the one-to-many associativity of a surface mesh to the geometry model entities to which it is attached. Second, a high-level library provides a kernel-agnostic wrapper for providing the necessary geometry queries to an application (e.g., mesher, flow solver). Both the schema and library are provided freely and openly. MeshLink’s ability to support solution mesh adaptation on linear and curved meshes for a high-order flow solution is demonstrated on several test cases relevant to the aerospace and automotive industries.

mesh adaptation↗

Modeling the radiant transfers of sparse vegetation canopies

The scattering dynamics of sparse vegetation canopies were studied within the framework of the three-dimensional radiative transfer model of Kimes (1984). The model was upgraded by including an algorithm for the anisotropic scattering of a soil boundary. Validation of the model was carried out using measured directional reflectance data for two canopies exhibiting typical scattering behavior with low and intermediate vegetation density. The canopies were: an orchard grass canopy; and a hard wheat canopy. A number of factors were found contributing to the final reflectance distribution of the canopies, including: (1) the strong anisotropic scattering properties of the soil; (2) the geometric effect of the vegetation probability gap function on the soil anisotropy and solar irradiance; and (3) the anisotropic scattering of vegetation which is controlled by the phase function and the layering of leaves. The application of the theoretical results to the development of earth-observing sensor systems is discussed.

Kimes, D. S.↗

Study of liquid-solid transition for materials processing in space. Analysis of field effects on dense liquid materials

The behavior of dense liquids near the solidification point under the influence of magnetic fields or near-zero gravity conditions were analyzed within the framework of existing liquid state models and classical field theory. The dynamic body forces which are an effect of the magnetic field on liquids are discussed. It is concluded that both magnetic fields and low gravity conditions produce an increase in the diffusion coefficient which result in an increased growth rate of crystals, and time varying magnetic fields induce eddy currents in the liquid which produce body forces and tend to disrupt convection.

Miller, R. I.↗

The Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment

Determination of wheat acreages in the central U.S., as well as the development and testing of yield models, is discussed in the framework of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Particular attention is given to the goal of obtaining a 90% accuracy in yield forecasts in nine out of ten years. Current results of LACIE indicate that Landsat remote sensing data, in conjunction with information from agricultural meteorological surveys, can provide highly accurate early-season and at-harvest yield estimates in the principal wheat-growing regions of the world.

Macdonald, R. B.↗

The role of polar regions in global climate, and a new parameterization of global heat transport

The effects of the transport of heat between polar regions and other latitudes on climate sensitivity and stability are examined within the framework of simple energy balance models. New heat transport parameterizations adjust radiative equilibrium distributions of temperature with latitude on the basis of Hadley cells and baroclinically unstable eddies; including the effects of static stability changes with latitude eliminates the possible error in estimating the pole-equator temperature difference. It is found that climate sensitivity and stability for the new transport parameterizations can differ from other models, and is capable of simulating the sensitivity required by existing climate data.

Lindzen, R. S.↗

Abundance enhancements in cosmic rays produced by collisionless shocks

It is shown that shocks preferentially accelerate partially ionized heavy elements over protons. Within the framework of a previously published model of injection, the spectra of different ion species are calculated from thermal to ultrarelativistic energies. For typical astrophysical parameters, the predicted enhancement is in qualitative agreement with observations for a 10 to the 6th K preshock plasma; ions with Z greater than 10 are enhanced by about an order of magnitude or so. The continuing increase with energy of the heavy-element abundances into the air-shower regime is discussed.

Eichler, D.↗

Can we detect antimatter from other galaxies

A novel particle detection technique employing well established principles of high order quantum electrodynamics for searching for antimatter in cosmic rays is described, and shown to have both collecting power and resolution superior to conventional alternatives. By taking into account various estimates of the metagalactic cosmic-ray energy density, and the possible modulation of metagalactic cosmic rays by a galactic wind within the framework of the dynamical halo model, it is shown that the experiment proposed would be the first to be sensitive to the presence of extragalactic antimatter.

Ahlen, S. P.↗

The energy spectrum of electrons and cosmic-ray confinement A new measurement and its interpretation

Measurements of the cosmic ray flux and electron energy spectrum from 5 GeV to 300 GeV, with an absolute uncertainty in the flux level of + or - 10 percent at low energies and + or - 30 percent at 100 GeV, are described. The measured spectrum appears to represent the competing processes of radiative energy loss in the interstellar medium and leakage out of the Galaxy. In the framework of the leaky box model and diffusion models, the result is most consistent with the picture of cosmic ray electrons spending an average of 10 million years in the Galaxy independent of electron energy, probably propagating in a halo as well as in the galactic disk.

Tang, K.-K.↗

Spectral shape variation of interstellar electrons at high energies

The high energy electron spectrum analysis has shown that the electron intensity inside the H2 cloud region, or in a spiral arm, should be much lower than that outside it and the observed electron energy spectrum should flatten again at about 1 TeV. In the framework of the leady box model the recently established rigidity dependence of the escape pathlength of cosmic rays would predict a high energy electron spectrum which is flatter than the observed one. This divergence is explained by assuming that the leaky box model can only apply to cosmic ray heavy nuclei, and light nuclei and electrons in cosmic rays may have different behaviors in the interstellar propagation. Therefore, the measured data on high energy electrons should be analyzed based on the proposed nonuniform galactic disk (NUGD) mode.

Tan, L. C.↗

On the halo events observed by Mount Fuji and Mount Kanbala Emulsion Chamber Experiments

The intensity of big gamma-ray families associated by halo is obtained from Mt. Fuji experiment (650 g/sq.cm. atmospheric depth) and Mt. Kanbala experiment (515 g/sq.cm.). The results are compared with Monte Carlo calculation based on several assumptions on interaction mechanisms and the primary cosmic ray composition. The results suggest more than 3 times lower proton abundance among primaries than that of 10 to the 12th to 10 to the 13th eV region within the framework of quasi-scaling model of multiple production.

Ren, J. R.↗

Escape of suprathermal O(+) ions in the polar cap

Instruments on board the Dynamics Explorer (DE) 1 and 2 spacecraft have been used to investigate the characteristics of a very low-energy (less than 10 eV) outflow of O(+) ions at high altitudes over the polar cap. The measured O(+) outflow has a relatively high Mach number (2-6) and a flux of about 2 x 10 to the 8th/(sq cm s). A statistical study using 50 orbits of retarding ion mass spectrometer data indicates that the outflows occur during active magnetic conditions, lasting for several hours over large areas of the polar cap. The observations are then discussed and analyzed in a framework based on polar wind models with particular attention paid to the new information obtained by the DE 2 Fabry-Perot interferometer, and the impact these flows have on the composition of the magnetosphere. The observed suprathermal outflow of O(+) suggests a scenario requiring both significant compositional changes in the high latitude thermosphere and significant heating of the ions and electrons in the topside ionoshpere.

Waite, J. H., Jr.↗

A statistical-dynamical study of empirically determined modes of atmospheric variability

The observed wintertime intraseasonal variability of the northern hemisphere midtropospheric circulation is analyzed within the framework of an equivalent barotropic model. The data set and the form of the eigenvalue/vector problem in the wave domain are described, and the statistical significance of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is discussed, and some selected modes are briefly described. The anomaly model and the transformation to the EOF domain are presented together with a discussion of the model coefficients and forcing term. The fitting procedure for the parameterized terms are described and the level of correspondence between the modelled and observed streamfunction tendencies as a function of the EOFs is examined. The stability of the time mean flow and other base states is investigated.

Schubert, S. D.↗

The dissociation of subjective measures of mental workload and performance

Dissociation between performance and subjective workload measures was investigated in the theoretical framework of the multiple resources model. Subjective measures do not preserve the vector characteristics in the multidimensional space described by the model. A theory of dissociation was proposed to locate the sources that may produce dissociation between the two workload measures. According to the theory, performance is affected by every aspect of processing whereas subjective workload is sensitive to the amount of aggregate resource investment and is dominated by the demands on the perceptual/central resources. The proposed theory was tested in three experiments. Results showed that performance improved but subjective workload was elevated with an increasing amount of resource investment. Furthermore, subjective workload was not as sensitive as was performance to differences in the amount of resource competition between two tasks. The demand on perceptual/central resources was found to be the most salient component of subjective workload. Dissociation occurred when the demand on this component was increased by the number of concurrent tasks or by the number of display elements. However, demands on response resources were weighted in subjective introspection as much as demands on perceptual/central resources. The implications of these results for workload practitioners are described.

Yeh, Y. H.↗

Coronal X-ray activity preceding solar flares

The characteristics of coronal emplacements preceding solar flares were investigated based on a comprehensive survey of Skylab soft X-ray images. A search interval of 30 min before flare was used in the X-ray observations. X-ray images with preflare enhancements were compared with high resolution H-alpha images and photospheric magnetograms and preflare enhancements were found in a statistically significant number of the observed preflare intervals. The enhancement events consisted of loops, kernels, and sinuous features with one to three separate preflare structures appearing in each interval. Typical gas pressures in the preflare X-ray features were estimated on the order of a few dyne per sq cm and densities were 4-10 x 10 to the -9th per cu cm for assumed average temperatures. H-alpha brightenings in the form of knots and patches were found in conjunction with the X-ray preflare features in nearly all of the intervals. It is concluded that H-alpha emission is characteristic of preflare emission processes. The observational data are interpreted within the framework of existing loop preheating models, and the results are discussed in detail.

Webb, D. F.↗