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At least 991 records · Page 55

Electrochemical Performance of Mixed Redox-Active Organic Molecules in Redox Flow Batteries

Designing electrolytes based on mixture of different organic redox active molecules brings the opportunity of enhancing the volumetric energy density of flow batteries and removes the requirement of high solubility for individual organic species in the mixture. Here, in the present work, we conduct computational and experimental analysis to investigate the electrochemical performance of mixed redox-active organic molecules. A zero-dimensional transient model is employed to investigate the changes in the half-cell potential and the concentrations and partial currents of individual redox reactions in a mixture of organic molecules over time. The model demonstrates the effects of individual properties of species such as kinetic rate constants, mass transfer coefficients, concentration ratios and standard redox potentials and reports the effect of energy-losing homogenous chemical redox reaction on the voltage efficiency and concentration ratios of the mixed species. Pairs of anthraquinone negolyte species were selected for an experimental case study. A mixture of 2,6-N-TSAQ and 2,6-DHAQ showed 40% increase in the volumetric energy density compared to the performance of 2,6-DHAQ alone. Based on the results of the experimental and computational analysis, we propose guidelines for the design of suitable mixed redox-active organic species.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

SUHMO: an adaptive mesh refinement SUbglacial Hydrology MOdel v1.0

Abstract. Water flowing under ice sheets and glaciers can have a strong influence on ice dynamics, particularly through pressure changes, suggesting that a comprehensive ice sheet model should include the effect of basal hydrology. Modeling subglacial hydrology remains a challenge, however, mainly due to the range of spatial and temporal scales involved – from subglacial channels to vast subglacial lakes. Additionally, networks of subglacial drainage channels dynamically evolve over time. To address some of these challenges, we have developed an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) model based on the Chombo software framework. We extend the model proposed by Sommers et al. (2018) with a small but significant change to accommodate the transition from unresolved to resolved flow features. We handle the strong nonlinearities present in the equations by resorting to an efficient nonlinear full approximation scheme multigrid (FAS-MG) algorithm. We outline the details of the algorithm and present convergence analysis results demonstrating its good performance. Additionally, we present results validating our approach, using test cases from the Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP) (de Fleurian et al., 2018). We finish by presenting a more complex, 100 km-by-100 km synthetic test case with peaks and valleys that we use to investigate the effective pressure distribution as the number of AMR levels increases. These preliminary results suggest that a minimum spatial resolution is needed to properly capture channel features, but additional work is required to precisely quantify this and its impact on accurately modeling the coupled ice sheet–hydrology system. The efficiency of our approach, relying on localized refinement, is also demonstrated. Future work will include coupling the SUbglacial Hydrology MOdel (SUHMO) with the BISICLES AMR ice sheet model (Cornford et al., 2013), both built on the same numerical framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simple Statistical Models for Predicting Overpressure Due to CO2 and Low-Salinity Waste-Fluid Injection into Deep Saline Formations

Deep saline aquifers have been used for waste-fluid disposal for decades and are the proposed targets for large-scale CO2 storage to mitigate CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Due to relatively limited experience with CO2 injection in deep saline formations and given that the injection targets for CO2 sometimes are the same as waste-fluid disposal formations, it could be beneficial to model and compare both practices and learn from the waste-fluid disposal industry. In this paper, we model CO2 injection in the Patterson Field, which has been proposed as a site for storage of 50 Mt of industrial CO2 over 25 years. We propose general models that quickly screen the reservoir properties and calculate pressure changes near and far from the injection wellbore, accounting for variable reservoir properties. The reservoir properties we investigated were rock compressibility, injection rate, vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio, average reservoir permeability and porosity, reservoir temperature and pressure, and the injectant total dissolved solids (TDS) in cases of waste-fluid injection. We used experimental design to select and perform simulation runs, performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the important variables on pressure build-up, and then fit a regression model to the simulation runs to obtain simple proxy models for changes in average reservoir pressure and bottomhole pressure. The CO2 injection created more pressure compared to saline waste-fluids, when similar mass was injected. However, we found a more significant pressure buildup at the caprock-reservoir interface and lower pressure buildup at the bottom of the reservoir when injecting CO2 compared with waste-fluid injection.

Ansari, Esmail↗

An analysis of fluff formation in metallic fuel via data analyzes from EBR-II experiments and BISON fuel code modeling

During the operation of EBR-II, it was found that a highly porous structure (over 40% area fraction) formed at the top of several fuel columns. Previous work has shown that this structure, designated fluff in this paper, contains a significant fraction of fuel elements (e.g., U and Pu) which could potentially impact neutronics. This work aims in analyzing the formation mechanism of this microstructure so its impact can be incorporated into future metallic fuel modeling codes and algorithms. This paper details a preliminary examination into the formation mechanisms of fluff by performing qualitative and statistical analysis of EBR-II experimental data. Additionally, the operating conditions that have the greatest impact on fluff formation were determined based on this data set. Also, BISON fuel code simulations were used to help postulate potential fluff formation mechanisms. From this analysis it was found that the largest contributors to fluff formation were fuel burnup and composition, with fluff formation exhibiting a roughly linear positive correlation with increasing burnup and a negative correlation with increasing Pu content. It was also found that higher pin operating temperatures decreased fluff formation but only for U-10Zr fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources

Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impact of new d(p,γ)3 rates on Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

We consider the effect on Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) of new measurements of the d(p,γ) 3 He cross section by the LUNA Collaboration. These have an important effect on the primordial abundance of D/H which is also sensitive to the baryon density at the time of BBN. We have re-evaluated the thermal rate for this reaction, using a world average of cross section data, which we describe with model-independent polynomials; our results are in good agreement with a similar analysis by LUNA. We then perform a full likelihood analysis combining BBN and Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) likelihood chains using the new rate combined with previous measurements and compare with the results using previous rates. Concordance between BBN and CMB measurements of the anisotropy spectrum using the old rates was excellent. The predicted deuterium abundance at the Planck value of the baryon density was (D/H) BBN+CMB old = (2.57 ± 0.13) × 10 –5 which can be compared with the value determined from quasar absorption systems (D/H) obs = (2.55 ± 0.03) × 10 –5 . Using the new rates we find (D/H) BBN+CMB = (2.51 ± 0.11) × 10 –5 . We thus find consistency among BBN theory, deuterium and 4He observations, and the CMB, when using reaction rates fit in our data-driven approach. We also find that the new reaction data tightens the constraints on the number of relativistic degrees of freedom during BBN, giving the effective number of light neutrino species N ν = 2.880 ± 0.144 in good agreement with the Standard Model of particle physics. Lastly, we note that the observed deuterium abundance continues to be more precise than the BBN+CMB prediction, whose error budget is now dominated by d(d,n) 3 He and d(d,p) 3 H.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A parametric finite element study for determining burst strength of thin and thick-walled pressure vessels

To accurately predict the burst strength of both thin and thick-walled pressure vessels (PVs), a parametric study of PV burst strength was performed for a wide range of vessel geometries and materials using elastic-plastic finite element analysis (FEA). A valid FEA model was established through a detailed study of 2D versus 3D FEA models, the critical stress failure criterion versus the limit load criteria, and the thick-wall effect on the FEA simulations. Here, the results show that the stresses and strains at the mean diameter, rather than outside diameter, determines a more accurate burst strength for both thin and thick-walled PVs. On this basis, a parametrized FEA script using the ABAQUS Python application programming interface (API) was used to create a large database of PV burst strengths for a variety of vessel geometries and materials, demonstrating that Python scripting is a powerful technique for performing parametric studies or generating large databases. From the FEA results, using the regression method, a new burst pressure model was developed as a function of the vessel geometry (D/t ratio) and material properties (UTS and n). As validated by a large number of full-scale burst test data, the proposed burst model can very accurately predict the burst strength for both thin and thick-walled PVs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling gas migration through clay-based buffer material using coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics with stress-dependent gas permeability

A model for gas migration through clay-based buffer material is developed for modeling gas generation and migration associated with deep geologic nuclear waste disposal. The model is based on a multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics simulator that is adapted to consider enhanced gas flow when gas pressure is high enough to approach the confining stress magnitude. A key feature in the model is a direct coupling between gas permeability and stress, through a non-linear stress-dependent permeability function. The model was first tested and calibrated by modelling two different laboratory gas migration tests on Wyoming (MX-80) bentonite samples. The calibrated model was then applied to model gas migration through a bentonite buffer of a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) conducted at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden. Observed preferential gas migration along interfaces (between compacted blocks and along the canister surface) required explicit representation of such interfaces in the model. The model with the stress-dependent gas permeability accurately captured observed experimental responses in terms of gas breakthrough time, peak gas pressure, and cumulative gas flow rates. The calibrated model was finally applied to simulate migration of hydrogen gas generated within a breached nuclear waste canister over 10,000 years, involving migration of much larger gas volumes. For the considered gas generation rate and host rock properties, the generated gas could migrate through the bentonite buffer and released into the surrounding host rock at a maximum gas pressure somewhat higher than the initial total stress, though a significant amount of hydrogen remained within the buffer. This modelling sets the stage for further detailed analysis of the impact of hydrogen gas generation on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Quantifying optical loss of high-voltage degradation modes in photovoltaic modules using spectral analysis

The direct current bias for photovoltaic (PV) modules interconnected in series-strings may include both high voltage negative (“HV-”) and positive (“HV+”) polarity with respect to the electrical ground. Multiple degradation modes, resulting in quantifiable optical loss, were found to occur during HV-/HV+ sequential stress, including corrosion of the external glass surface, encapsulant delamination (at its interfaces with the glass and the PV cell), internal haze formation (resulting from a chemical interaction between the glass and the encapsulant), corrosion and migration of the gridlines, and corrosion of the silicon nitride (Si x N y ) antireflective coating on the cell. The effects of these separate modes were examined using monolithic (e.g., glass or PV cell) and laminated-coupon (glass/encapsulant/glass or glass/encapsulant/cell/encapsulant/backsheet) specimens. Characterizations during and after unbiased accelerated testing at 85°C/85% relative humidity included spectrophotometry, optical microscopy, electron microscopy, and ellipsometry. For some module components (i.e., the glass and the Si x N y coating), the optical performance was determined through iterative analysis of empirical measurements. Concentrating on just their spectral effect, a novel model was then developed to estimate the transfer of light to the PV cell and the return of light from the PV module with simultaneous degradation mechanisms, which was compared with a mini-module previously subjected to HV-/HV+ stress. Here the model suggests that one third of the current loss observed for the mini-module can be attributed to the optical degradation of the packaging materials. The dominant degradation modes include encapsulant delamination and corrosion of the Si x N y coating. Recommendations are given so that the optical model may be improved relative to accelerated testing and validated relative to field aging.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50-Year Life Module

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 years. Furthermore, research efforts aim for up to 50 years of service life while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades of outdoor weathering - putting additional pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. Here there is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. Our repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry.

degradation↗

AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF EVENT TREES AND FAULT TREES: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH

In the past few decades, increasing complexity in modern engineering systems has been driven by the integration of a large number of components and by the fact that the system operations involve many disciplines (e.g., thermal-hydraulics, plant operations, cyber-security). Current safety/reliability modeling approaches to such systems are labor intensive, difficult to learn, and rely heavily on simplistic Boolean logic to depict failure propagation and accident progression. While these methods serve well for simple systems (i.e., linear causal systems with limited small inter- and intra-system interactions), their results are difficult to verify when modeling complex systems (typically performed through the extensive use of modeling assumptions). The development of new methods is addressed to meet these challenges through a model-based system engineering (MBSE) lens. Under MBSE philosophy, every aspect of the system (form or function) is represented by a model that completely characterizes its architecture or behavior. MBSE approach greatly improves the management of design, analysis and verification of complex systems. An integration of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) methods with MBSE models is proposed to perform safety/reliability analyses of engineering systems. In particular, MBSE representation of the system (performed using Systems Modeling Language [SysML]) is coupled with DPRA methods to automatically generate event trees and fault trees.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dispersion Validation for Flow Involving a Large Structure Revisited: 45 Degree Rotation

The atmospheric dispersion of contaminants in the wake of a large urban structure is a challenging fluid mechanics problem of interest to the scientific and engineering communities. Magnetic Resonance Velocimetry (MRV) and Magnetic Resonance Concentration (MRC) are relatively new techniques that leverage diagnostic equipment used primarily by the medical field to make 3D engineering measurements of flow and contaminant dispersal. SIERRA/Fuego, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code at Sandia National Labs is employed to make detailed comparisons to the dataset to evaluate the quantitative and qualitative accuracy of the model. This work is the second in a series of scenarios. In the prior work, a single large building in an array of similar buildings was considered with the wind perpendicular to a building face. In this work, the geometry is rotated by 45 degrees and improved studies are performed for simulation credibility. The comparison exercise shows conditionally good comparisons between the model and experiment. Model uncertainties are assessed through parametric variations. Various methods of quantifying the accuracy between experiments and data are examined Three-dimensional analysis of accuracy is performed. The effort helped identify deficiencies in the techniques used to make these comparisons, and further methods development therefore becomes one of the main recommendations for follow-on work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantifying Optical Loss of High-Voltage Degradation Modes in PV Modules Using Spectral Analysis [Slides]

The direct current bias for photovoltaic (PV) modules interconnected in series-strings may include both high voltage negative ("HV-") and positive ("HV+") polarity with respect to the electrical ground. Multiple degradation modes, resulting in quantifiable optical loss, were found to occur during HV-/HV+ sequential stress, including: corrosion of the external glass surface, encapsulant delamination (at its interfaces with the glass and the PV cell), internal haze formation (resulting from a chemical interaction between the glass and the encapsulant), corrosion and migration of the gridlines, and corrosion of the silicon nitride (SixNy) antireflective coating on the cell. The effects of these separate modes were examined using monolithic (e.g., glass or PV cell) and laminated-coupon (glass/encapsulant/glass or glass/encapsulant/cell/encapsulant/backsheet) specimens. Characterizations during and after unbiased accelerated testing at 85 degrees C/85% relative humidity included: spectrophotometry, optical microscopy, electron microscopy, and ellipsometry. For some module components (i.e., the glass and the SixNy coating), the optical performance was determined through iterative analysis of empirical measurements. Concentrating on just their spectral effect, a novel model was then developed to estimate the transfer of light to the PV cell and the return of light from the PV module with simultaneous degradation mechanisms, which was compared to a mini-module previously subjected to HV-/HV+ stress. The model suggests one-third of the current loss observed for the mini-module can be attributed to the optical degradation of the packaging materials. The dominant degradation modes include encapsulant delamination and corrosion of the SixNy coating. Recommendations are given so that the optical model may be improved relative to accelerated testing and validated relative to field aging.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Internship Presentation: Integrating Safety and Cybersecurity: Security-by-Design with SOWT Analysis for Reactor Testing

This study covers leveraging reactor testing facilities that are primarily designed with a focus on safety to enhance cybersecurity testing. By incorporating reactor security-by-design with reactor safety-by-design principles and adopting defense-in-depth strategies that emphasize both safety and security, the research evaluates applicable cyber tools, models, and solutions. This includes simulating specific cyber-attack scenarios using reactor simulators and performing SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis to improve the cybersecurity of reactor systems.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Modeling Buried Object Brightness and Visibility for Ground Penetrating Radar

Comparing the observed brightness of various buried objects is a straightforward way to characterize the performance of a ground penetrating radar (GPR) system. However, a limitation arises. A simple comparison of buried object brightness values does not disentangle the effects of the GPR system itself from the system's operating environment and the objects being observed. Therefore, with brightness values exhibiting an unknown synthesis of systemic, environmental, and object factors, GPR system analysis becomes a convoluted affair. In this work, we use an experimentally collected dataset of over 25,000 object observations from five different multistatic radar arrays to develop models of buried object brightness and control for these various effects. Additionally, our modeling efforts provide a means for quantifying the relative brightness of GPR systems, the objects they detect, and the physical properties of those objects that influence observed brightness. To evaluate the models' performance on new object observations, we repeatedly simulate fitting them to half the dataset and predicting the observed brightness values of the unseen half. In addition, we introduce a method for estimating the probability that individual observations constitute a visible object, which aids in failure analysis, performance characterization, and dataset cleaning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sequential Learning of Active Subspaces

This study shows that in recent years, active subspace methods (ASMs) have become a popular means of performing subspace sensitivity analysis on black-box functions. Naively applied, however, ASMs require gradient evaluations of the target function. In the event of noisy, expensive, or stochastic simulators, evaluating gradients via finite differencing may be infeasible. In such cases, often a surrogate model is employed, on which finite differencing is performed. When the surrogate model is a Gaussian process (GP), we show that the ASM estimator is available in closed form, rendering the finite-difference approximation unnecessary. We use our closed-form solution to develop acquisition functions focused on sequential learning tailored to sensitivity analysis on top of ASMs. We also show that the traditional ASM estimator may be viewed as a method of moments estimator for a certain class of GPs. We demonstrate how uncertainty on GP hyperparameters may be propagated to uncertainty on the sensitivity analysis, allowing model-based confidence intervals on the active subspace. Our methodological developments are illustrated on several examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗