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At least 991 records · Page 55

A Prognostics Framework Development for Swarm Satellite Formations

Prognostics is the science of predicting the failure(s) of a component or a system and understanding how the performance will change in the event of a failure or degradation mechanism. With accurate predictions of possible failures, autonomous mitigative actions can be taken to correct/repair any issues or alert human operators of a failure threshold exceedance requiring condition-based maintenance. Although there is extensive research on failure predictions for a component or a system, there are significantly more opportunities to foray into failure predictions and prognostics for a system of systems such as an airspace consisting of multiple aircraft, a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, and a swarm of intelligent satellite systems. Failure prediction and mitigation are particularly important in autonomous systems such as satellite swarm systems that need effective resource management and minimal human interactions. Based on NASA's decadal survey, there is a clear need to prioritize the development of satellite swarm technology for studies of space physics and Earth science. The science community will propose future missions that return in-situ measurements from a 3-D (three-dimensional) volume of space, with relative spacecraft motion and inter-satellite baselines controlled according to the mission objectives. For such multi-spacecraft missions, it is required that ground operations resources do not scale with the number of satellites, thus compromising the swarm or leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation. Swarms of tens or hundreds of small satellites will require autonomy in attitude control, navigation and failure. Although significant research has been conducted in the areas of autonomous formation flying algorithms, less attention has been given to the development of resilient systems robust to failures.The focus of this research paper is the integration of model-based prognostics into the swarm dynamics control and decision-making algorithms. We simulate swarm management strategies for a subsystem failure to demonstrate the importance of failure predictions by comparing two cases: (i) no health information is provided to the system and utilized in the decision-making process and (2) system health information is obtained using prognostics and employed by the control system. One example scenario presented is for the GPS (Global Positioning System) system of an individual satellite to perform off-nominally due to increasing estimated error. In this scenario, the keep-out zone for that satellite would become more conservative, thereby decreasing the risk of collision. This is achieved via tuning the individual artificial repulsive functions assigned to each satellite.This paper is structured as follows. First we provide an overview of current swarm technology development, where we specifically use the term swarm to define multiple satellites flying in formation in similar orbits, with cross-link communication and station-keeping capabilities. Second, we give an introduction to the Swarm Orbital Dynamics Advisor (SODA), a tool that accepts high-level configuration commands and provides the orbital maneuvers required to achieve the prescribed formation configuration. Third, we provide the details of the model-based prognostics algorithm implementation in SODA. Finally, we present different case studies for potential component/subsystem failures and the swarm responses based with and without failure prediction information.

prognostics↗

A fast multi-fidelity method with uncertainty quantification for complex data correlations: Application to vortex-induced vibrations of marine risers

Here we develop a fast multi-fidelity modeling method for very complex correlations between high- and low-fidelity data by working in modal space to extract the proper correlation function. We apply this method to infer the amplitude of motion of a flexible marine riser in cross-flow, subject to vortex-induced vibrations (VIV). VIV are driven by an absolute instability in the flow, which imposes a frequency (Strouhal) law that requires a matching with the impedance of the structure; this matching is easily achieved because of the rapid parametric variation of the added mass force. As a result, the wavenumber of the riser spatial response is within narrow bands of uncertainty. Hence, an error in wavenumber prediction can cause significant phase-related errors in the shape of the amplitude of response along the riser, rendering correlation between low- and high-fidelity data very complex. Working in modal space as outlined herein, dense data from low-fidelity data, provided by the semi-empirical computer code VIVA, can correlate in modal space with few high-fidelity data, obtained from experiments or fully-resolved CFD simulations, to correct both phase and amplitude and provide predictions that agree very well overall with the correct shape of the amplitude response. We also quantify the uncertainty in the prediction using Bayesian modeling and exploit this uncertainty to formulate an active learning strategy for the best possible location of the sensors providing the high fidelity measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica

Accurate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling in the cryosphere is required for interpreting satellite, geophysical and geological records and for assessing the feedbacks of Earth deformation and sea-level change on marine ice-sheet grounding lines. GIA modelling in areas of active ice loss in West Antarctica is particularly challenging because the ice is underlain by laterally varying mantle viscosities that are up to several orders of magnitude lower than the global average, leading to a faster and more localised response of the solid Earth to ongoing and future ice-sheet retreat and necessitating GIA models that incorporate 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure. Improvements to GIA models allow for computation of the viscoelastic response of the Earth to surface ice loading at sub-kilometre resolution, and ice-sheet models and observational products now provide the inputs to GIA models at comparably unprecedented detail. However, the resolution required to accurately capture GIA in models remains poorly understood, and high-resolution calculations come at heavy computational expense. We adopt a 3-D GIA model with a range of Earth structure models based on recent seismic tomography and geodetic data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of GIA in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica. Through idealised sensitivity testing down to sub-kilometre resolution with spatially isolated ice loading changes, we find that a grid resolution of ~$\frac{1}{3}$ of the radius of the load or higher is required to accurately capture the elastic response of the Earth. However, when we consider more realistic, spatially coherent ice loss scenarios based on modern observational records and future ice-sheet model projections and adopt a viscoelastic Earth, we find that predicted deformation and sea-level change along the grounding line converge to within 5 % with grid resolutions of 7.5 km or higher, and to within 2% for grid resolutions of 3.75 km and higher, even when the input ice model is on a 1 km grid. Furthermore, we show that low mantle viscosities beneath the ASE lead to viscous deformation that contributes to the instrumental record on decadal timescales and equals or dominates over elastic effects by the end of the 21st century. Our findings suggest that for the range of resolutions of 1.9–15 km that we considered, the error due to adopting a coarser grid in this region is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous effects and the uncertainty in the adopted mantle viscosity structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A biologically-inspired approach for adaptive control of advanced energy systems

Here in this article, a novel approach is proposed for integrating a Biologically-Inspired Optimal Control Strategy (BIOsingle bondCS) with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based adaptive component for advanced energy systems applications. Specifically, BIOsingle bondCS employs gradient-based optimal control solvers in a biologically-inspired manner, following the rule of pursuit for ants, to simultaneously control multiple process outputs at their desired setpoints. Also, the ANN component captures the mismatch between the controller and the plant models by using a single-hidden-layer technique with online learning capabilities to augment the baseline BIOsingle bondCS control laws. The resulting approach is a unique combination of biomimetic control and data-driven methods that provides optimal solutions for dynamic systems. The applicability of the proposed framework is illustrated via an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) process with carbon capture as an advanced energy system example. In particular, a multivariable control structure associated with a subsystem of the IGCC plant simulation in DYNSIM® is addressed. The proposed control laws are derived in MATLAB®, while the plant models are built in DYNSIM®, and a previously developed MATLAB®-DYNSIM® link is employed for implementation purposes. The proposed integrated approach improves the overall performance of the process up to 85% in terms of reducing the output tracking error when compared to stand-alone BIOsingle bondCS and Proportional-Integral (PI) controller implementations, resulting in faster setpoint tracking. The proposed framework thus provides a promising alternative for advanced control of energy systems of the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Transformer Neural Networks with Spatiotemporal Attention for Predictive Control and Optimization of Industrial Processes

In the context of real-time optimization and model predictive control of industrial systems, machine learning, and neural networks represent cutting-edge tools that hold promise for enhancing dynamic modeling. This work presents a novel transformer neural network architecture for real-time optimization and model predictive control. This network design includes a modified attention mechanism inspired by positional embedding attention from vision transformers and task-specific modifications to the input-output structure of the transformer’s decoder stack. Experiments were conducted using data from a 450 MW coal-fired power plant to evaluate this approach's effectiveness. The transformer neural network was compared with conventional recurrent models, including GRU and LSTM. The transformer exhibited a 6% increase in the R-squared (R2) value of predictions and an 83% reduction in mean squared error (MSE). Computation time was also reduced by 84% compared to conventional recurrent models.

Gallup, Ethan R.↗

Cognitive engineering models in space systems

NASA space systems, including mission operations on the ground and in space, are complex, dynamic, predominantly automated systems in which the human operator is a supervisory controller. The human operator monitors and fine-tunes computer-based control systems and is responsible for ensuring safe and efficient system operation. In such systems, the potential consequences of human mistakes and errors may be very large, and low probability of such events is likely. Thus, models of cognitive functions in complex systems are needed to describe human performance and form the theoretical basis of operator workstation design, including displays, controls, and decision support aids. The operator function model represents normative operator behavior-expected operator activities given current system state. The extension of the theoretical structure of the operator function model and its application to NASA Johnson mission operations and space station applications is discussed.

Mitchell, Christine M.↗

Proper Motion of Components in 4C 39.25

From a series of simultaneous 8.4 and 2.3 GHz VLBI observations of the quasar 4C 39.25 phase referenced to the radio source 0920+390, carried out in 1990-1992, we have measured the proper motion of component b in 4C 39.25: mu(sub alpha) = 90 +/- 43 (mu)as/yr, mu(sub beta) = 7 +/- 68 (mu)as/yr, where the quoted uncertainties account for the contribution of the statistical standard deviation and the errors assumed for the parameters related to the geometry of the interferometric array, the atmosphere, and the source structure. This proper motion is consistent with earlier interpretations of VLBI hybrid mapping results, which showed an internal motion of this component with respect to other structural components. Our differential astrometry analyses show component b to be the one in motion. Our results thus further constrain models of this quasar.

Guirado, J. C.↗

The NASA Aviation Safety Program: Overview

In 1997, the United States set a national goal to reduce the fatal accident rate for aviation by 80% within ten years based on the recommendations by the Presidential Commission on Aviation Safety and Security. Achieving this goal will require the combined efforts of government, industry, and academia in the areas of technology research and development, implementation, and operations. To respond to the national goal, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed a program that will focus resources over a five year period on performing research and developing technologies that will enable improvements in many areas of aviation safety. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is organized into six research areas: Aviation System Modeling and Monitoring, System Wide Accident Prevention, Single Aircraft Accident Prevention, Weather Accident Prevention, Accident Mitigation, and Synthetic Vision. Specific project areas include Turbulence Detection and Mitigation, Aviation Weather Information, Weather Information Communications, Propulsion Systems Health Management, Control Upset Management, Human Error Modeling, Maintenance Human Factors, Fire Prevention, and Synthetic Vision Systems for Commercial, Business, and General Aviation aircraft. Research will be performed at all four NASA aeronautics centers and will be closely coordinated with Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and other government agencies, industry, academia, as well as the aviation user community. This paper provides an overview of the NASA Aviation Safety Program goals, structure, and integration with the rest of the aviation community.

Shin, Jaiwon↗

GEMS

The prime scientific objectives of the Gravity and Extreme Magnetism SMEX, GEMS, are to determine the effects of the spin of black holes, the configurations of the magnetic fields of magnetars, and the structure of the supernova shocks which accelerate cosmic rays. In the cases of both stellar black holes and supermassive black holes, sensitivity to 1% polarization is needed to make diagnostic measurements of the net polarizations predicted for probable disk and corona models. GEMS can reach this goal for several Seyferts and quasars and measure the polarizations of representatives of a variety of other classes of X-ray sources, such as rotation-powered and accretion-powered pulsars. GEMS uses foil mirrors to maximize the collecting area achievable within the SMEX constraints. The polarimeters at the mirror foci are Time Projection Chambers which use the photoelectic effect to measure the polarization of the incident photon. We have built laboratory models with good efficiency and modulation in the 2-10 keV range. An attached small student experiment would add 0.5 keV sensitivity for bright soft sources. The instrument has a point spread function which allows measurement of structures in the brighter nearby supernova remnants. GEMS' Orbital Sciences spacecraft will rotate at a rate of 0.1 revolutions per minute during observations, so that systematic errors due to the detector can be detected and corrected. A program of 35 sources can be observed in 9 months. GEMS is designed for a two year lifetime which will allow a General Observer program that would more than double the number of sources measured. For subsets of black holes, neutron stars and supernova remnants, GEMS will measure the polarization of several sources, solving important questions while establishing the sensitivity required for future missions.

Swank, Jean↗

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗

Predictive links between microbial communities and biological oxygen utilization in the Arctic Ocean

Microbial metabolism influences rates of net community production (NCP), exerting a direct biological control on marine oxygen and carbon fluxes. In the Arctic, it is increasingly important to understand and quantify this process, as ecological and oceanographic conditions shift due to changing climate. Here, we describe potential ecological links between pelagic microbial diversity and an NCP precursor, biological oxygen utilization, using machine learning and paired observations of community structure and metabolic activity from a seasonally and spatially variable transect of the Arctic Ocean (2019–2020 MOSAiC Expedition). Community structure was determined using 16S (prokaryotic) and 18S (eukaryotic) rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and metabolic activity was derived from ΔO 2 /Ar. Using self-organizing maps, we identified clear successional patterns in observed microbial community structure that were seasonally driven in the upper ocean and vertically stratified with depth. Metabolic activity was also stratified, with a primarily net heterotrophic water column (median −1.5% biological oxygen saturation), excepting periodic oxygen supersaturation (maximum: 13.6%) within the mixed layer. Using DNA sequences as predictor variables, we then constructed a random forest regression model that reliably reconstructed biological oxygen concentrations (root mean squared error = 4.14 μmol kg −1 ). Top predictors from this model were from heterotrophic (bacteria) or potentially mixotrophic (dinoflagellate) taxa. These analyses highlight biologically driven diagnostic tools that can be used to expand biogeochemical datasets and improve the microbial perspectives and metabolisms represented in ecological models of net productivity and carbon flux in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Chamberlain, Emelia J. [Univ. of San Diego, San Di↗

Life cycle assessment based environmental impact estimation model for pre-stressed concrete beam bridge in the early design phase

The late rise in global concern for environmental issues such as global warming and air pollution is accentuating the need for environmental assessments in the construction industry. Promptly evaluating the environmental loads of the various design alternatives during the early stages of a construction project and adopting the most environmentally sustainable candidate is therefore of large importance. Yet, research on the early evaluation of a construction project's environmental load in order to aid the decision making process is hitherto lacking. In light of this dilemma, this study proposes a model for estimating the environmental load by employing only the most basic information accessible during the early design phases of a project for the pre-stressed concrete (PSC) beam bridge, the most common bridge structure. Firstly, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the data from 99 bridges by integrating the bills of quantities (BOQ) with a life cycle inventory (LCI) database. The processed data was then utilized to construct a case based reasoning (CBR) model for estimating the environmental load. The accuracy of the estimation model was then validated using five test cases; the model's mean absolute error rates (MAER) for the total environmental load was calculated as 7.09%. Such test results were shown to be superior compared to those obtained from a multiple-regression based model and a slab area base-unit analysis model. Henceforth application of this model during the early stages of a project is expected to highly complement environmentally friendly designs and construction by facilitating the swift evaluation of the environmental load from multiple standpoints. - Highlights: • This study is to develop the model of assessing the environmental impacts on LCA. • Bills of quantity from completed designs of PSC Beam were linked with the LCI DB. • Previous cases were used to estimate the environmental load of new case by CBR model. • CBR model produces more accurate estimations (7.09%) than other conventional models. • This study supports decision making process in the early stage of a new construction case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Redshift-space streaming velocity effects on the Lyman- α forest baryon acoustic oscillation scale

The baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale acts as a standard ruler for measuring cosmological distances and has therefore emerged as a leading probe of cosmic expansion history. However, any physical effect that alters the length of the ruler can lead to a bias in our determination of distance and expansion rate. One of these physical effects is the streaming velocity, the relative velocity between baryons and dark matter in the early Universe, which couples to the BAO scale due to their common origin in acoustic waves at recombination. In this work, we investigate the impact of streaming velocity on the BAO feature of the Lyman- α forest auto-power spectrum, one of the main tracers being used by the recently commissioned Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). To do this, we develop a perturbative model for Lyman- α flux fluctuations which is complete to second order for a certain set of fields, and applicable to any redshift-space tracer of structure since it is based only on symmetry considerations. We find that there are 8 biasing coefficients through second order. We find streaming velocity-induced shifts in the BAO scale of 0.081%–0.149% (transverse direction) and 0.053%–0.058% (radial direction), depending on the model for the biasing coefficients used. These are smaller than, but not negligible compared to, the DESI Lyman- α BAO error budget, which is 0.46% on the overall scale. Overall, the sensitivity of these results to our choice of bias parameters underscores the need for future work to measure the higher-order biasing coefficients from simulations, especially for future experiments beyond DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Glass formulation and composition optimization with property models: A review

Abstract Glass is a versatile material with a remarkable history and many practical applications. It plays a critical role in our everyday lives, the advancement of science, and the development of many technologies. The Edisonian type trial‐and‐error method was commonly used for conventional design of glass compositions, which was time‐consuming and costly. With the urgent need to develop new glass compositions for technology applications rapidly, it has become necessary to develop precise property models with predictive powers using large databases and efficient formulation approaches. This paper reviews the design of glass compositions using these analytical and numerical models of composition–structure–property relations of glasses, some based on large databases and machine learning approaches. Aspects of data collection, model fitting, feature extraction, model evaluation, and uncertainty quantification will be covered. Furthermore, advances in the glass optimization framework and available tools are summarized with examples. The outlook and perspective for further glass property model development and formulation approaches are discussed.

Lu, Xiaonan↗

WSBP/NWBP small-world neural network and its performance for wind power forecasting

A small-world neural network has stronger generalization ability with high transfer efficiency than that of the regular neural networks. This paper presents two novel small-world neural networks, the Watts-Strogatz small-world based on a BP neural network (WSBP) and a Newman-Watts small-world neural network based on a BP neural network (NWBP), related to previous research of complex networks. The algorithms are developed separately by adopting WS and NW small-world networks as their topological structures, and their derivation and convergence criterion are progressively discussed. After that, the proposed models are subsequently tested by two typical nonlinear functions which confirm their significant improvement over the regular BP networks and other algorithms. Finally, a wind power prediction system is advanced to verify their generalization abilities, and show that the models are practically feasible and effective with improved accuracy and acceptable forecasting errors caused by wind fluctuation and randomness with a time scale up to 24 h.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Simulation of a navigator algorithm for a low-cost GPS receiver

The analytical structure of an existing navigator algorithm for a low cost global positioning system receiver is described in detail to facilitate its implementation on in-house digital computers and real-time simulators. The material presented includes a simulation of GPS pseudorange measurements, based on a two-body representation of the NAVSTAR spacecraft orbits, and a four component model of the receiver bias errors. A simpler test for loss of pseudorange measurements due to spacecraft shielding is also noted.

Hodge, W. F.↗

Response of the mobile VLBI design to error sources

The response of Mobile VLBI design to error sources is addressed. The sensitivity of the hydrogen maser to variations in ambient temperature is discussed, with an example of drifts in the frequency system causing excursions in the time-delay observable exceeding + or - 200 cm. It is shown that baselines determined only from S-band data can contain errors in excess of 30 cm during periods of high ionospheric activity. The effect of the troposphere on baseline solutions is examined by comparing calibrations from the Water Vapor Radiometer (WVR) to those from a surface model. The apparent ability of the WVR to track relatively short-period fluctuations in water vapor is noted. Finally, consideration is given to the effects of source structure and the technique of monitoring closure of the time-delay observable around a closed figure of baselines.

Trask, D. W.↗

Subgrid Treatment of Spacer Grids in the 2D/1D Subplane Approach

Recent efforts have focused on improving the performance of the 2D/1D subplane implementation in MPACT. One of the developments recently added, presented here, focuses on treating spacer grids using a subgrid approach within each subplane, avoiding the extra computation and potentially improving stability issues that can be present by explicitly modeling the spacer grid with a separate MOC plane. From the cases analyzed, it seems that the approach does a sufficient job of maintaining the accuracy of explicitly meshing the spacer grid (<10 pcm and <1% max pin power error) while offering relatively modest performance gains. Overall, the success of the approach with spacer grids opens up possibilities to apply similar approaches to other structural components, particularly those in the axial reflectors to reduce the number of MOC planes and overall computational burden.

Stimpson, Shane G.↗