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At least 991 records · Page 55

Cost-Benefit Assessment of Additive Manufacturing for Injection Molds

This report presents an additive-manufacturing (AM) technology, where AM Cyclic Olefin Resin (COR) molds would be used for injection molding. The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) team has focused on the costs and economics of this developing technology. This report presents a cost-benefit analysis of using the polySpectra AM COR molds made of COR, at the start of the project (Present') and the potential lifetime, cost-effectiveness, and performance by the end of the project period (Period 3'). The analysis of the AM COR molds is compared to traditional Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machined aluminum molds across the time periods. A cost-benefit model framework has been developed to evaluate AM COR molds. This model accounts for mold delivery to customers, current and future levels of technology readiness, the type of material injected, and various business cases. AM COR molds offer a major advantage in lead time, reducing production setup from weeks or months (with CNC machining) to as little as two to five days. This enables faster prototyping, quicker design cycles, and accelerated time-to-market, critical in industries like electronics, aerospace, medical devices, and automotive. Even modest improvements in the durability of polySpectra AM COR molds show the potential for these molds to complement traditional tooling. With further development, AM COR mold technology could provide significant time and cost savings while supporting increased domestic manufacturing capacity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluating Technology Adoption Risks in Early-Stage Materials Research

Development of new technologies often begins with fundamental materials science research. Decisions at this stage can shape factors related to the eventual adoption readiness of the technology, such as process scalability or materials availability. Here we present the early-Stage Technology Evaluation for Adoption Risks (STEAR) framework as a method for qualitatively assessing metrics spanning four categories of adoption risks: value proposition, market acceptance, resource maturity, and license to operate. We conduct a case study applying STEAR to different methanol production processes at a range of technology readiness levels and demonstrate how the assessment identifies key challenges related to adoption readiness. Finally, we discuss efforts to expand the applicability and utility of STEAR, including focus group feedback and complementary quantitative analysis methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Waterjet Impeller

North American Marine Jet (NAMJ), Inc. received assistance from Marshall Space Flight Center engineers in the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) branch of the Structure and Dynamics Laboratory in improving the proposed design of a new impeller for their jet-propulsion systems. Marshall used advanced CFD techniques, which included creating a three-dimensional computer model of the impeller for analysis. With Marshall input, the company modified the design, then Marshall used a computer model to make a solid polycarbonate model. The rapid prototyping allowed the company to avoid many time- consuming and costly steps in creating the impeller model. NAMJ is now able to compete with Pacific-area and European manufacturers who have traditionally dominated the market.

Source record↗

Streamlining Payload Integration

Payload integration onto space transport vehicles and the International Space Station (ISS) is a complex process. Yet, cargo transport is the sole reason for any space mission, be it for ferrying humans, science, or hardware. As the largest such effort in history, the ISS offers a wide variety of payload experience. However, for any payload to reach the Space Station under the current process, Payload Developers face a list of daunting tasks that go well beyond just designing the payload to the constraints of the transport vehicle and its stowage topology. Payload customers are required to prove their payload s functionality, structural integrity, and safe integration - including under less than nominal situations. They must also plan for or provide training, procedures, hardware labeling, ground support, and communications. In addition, they must deal with negotiating shared consumables, integrating software, obtaining video, and coordinating the return of data and hardware. All the while, they must meet export laws, launch schedules, budget limits, and the consensus of more than 12 panel and board reviews. Despite the cost and infrastructure overhead, payload proposals have increased. Just in the span from FY08 to FY09, the NASA Payload Space Station Support Office budget rose from $78M to $96M in attempt to manage the growing manifest, but the potential number of payloads still exceeds available Payload Integration Management manpower. The growth has also increased management difficulties due to the fact that payloads are more frequently added to a flight schedule late in the flow. The current standard ISS template for payload integration from concept to payload turn-over is 36 months, or 18 months if the payload already has a preliminary design. Customers are increasingly requiring a turn-around of 3 to 6-months to meet market needs. The following paper suggests options for streamlining the current payload integration process in order to meet customer schedule needs and reduce costs for both the integration support teams and the developers, without reducing quality or compromising safety. Issues for the key integration areas of planning, training, verification, and safety are presented in a Root-Cause Analysis study, with plausible solutions provided that involve technology and tools already available to the ISS community. Although based upon the ISS process, the payload integration techniques outlined herein also offer an integration template for any space transport endeavor.

Lufkin, Susan N.↗

Life cycle analysis of dedicated energy crops for fuel production in the United States

Dedicated energy crops are promising feedstocks to make biofuels including jet fuels. This study applies life cycle analysis (LCA) to estimate direct well-to-wake (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (g CO 2 e/MJ) for jet fuel derived from five energy crops-biomass sorghum, miscanthus, switchgrass, poplar, and willow-via Fischer-Tropsch-to-Jet (FTJ) and Ethanol-to-Jet (ETJ) pathways. The WTW boundary includes direct emissions from biomass production, fuel production, and fuel combustion. The R&D GREET model is expanded to conduct the LCA, using national average biomass yields and farming inputs from the 2023 Billion-Ton Study. In addition, this study estimates emissions from market-mediated effects, including induced land-use change, induced other crop (non-feedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes using global economic and emissions factor models. On a per-dry U.S. ton basis, cultivation and harvest emissions are lowest for willow (51,565 g CO 2 e) and highest for biomass sorghum (104,488 g CO 2 e). Per-acre results show similarly high emissions for sorghum and lowest values for poplar and willow. Direct WTW emissions are substantially lower for FTJ (biomass sorghum: 5.5; miscanthus: 10.3; switchgrass: 11.7; poplar: 11.9; and willow: 8.7 g CO 2 e/MJ) than ETJ (33.2; 33.8; 34.8; 36.2; and 31.7 g CO 2 e/MJ, respectively). When market-mediated emissions are included, miscanthus exhibits the lowest total emissions across energy crop pathways. Although results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, they indicate that high-yielding perennial and woody crops, particularly when planted on marginal land, could significantly reduce WTW emissions for bio-jet fuels by combining low direct emissions with soil carbon gains and favorable market-mediated effects.

Billion-Ton Study↗

Business Models for Coal Plant Decommissioning

Aging coal-fired power plants are retiring across the United States. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory studied coal-fired power plant decommissioning business models to support program development for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) to engage with communities affected by power plant retirement processes. Evaluating and reducing the impact on coal-dependent communities from phasing out coal production is a crucial piece of nationwide economic development and community-directed engagement in the clean energy future. This report describes the steps in the typical coal-fired power plant decommissioning process, including analysis of the following key factors: Drivers including policy and regulations, competition with other fuels, and corporate responsibility goals; Types of coal plant decommissioning including plant retirement without full decommissioning, repurposing with fuel switch, redeveloping to utilize existing transmission, and decommissioning and repurposing with other commercial activities; and, Costs of coal plant decommissioning, including variations across regulated and deregulated markets and the funding resources to support decommissioning activities. The details described in this report relied heavily on the availability of local news reports and communications regarding plant retirements, as the researchers identified a lack of formal literature surrounding business models for coal plant decommissioning and a need for a more robust source material collection. In addition, a lack of oversight entities responsible for decommissioning processes may have led to this shortfall of information. Future research regarding coal plant decommissioning can include quantitative studies on power plant retirement drivers, procedures, and costs, qualitative assessments on affects decommissioning has on surrounding communities, investors, and other stakeholders, and identifying best practices to engage community stakeholders in the decommissioning process.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Depowering of Batteries to Reduce Cost of Ownership

(1) Executive Summary: End of life batteries (EOLBs) present a cost and safety liability for their owners and stakeholders. This is due flammability, energy, and power with EOLBs. Current approaches include cumbersome, expensive packaging, specialized shipping, regulated storage, and they are responsible for over half of the cost of recycling. They all expensively and inadequately address symptoms. OnTo has developed and proven a simple way to resolve the problem systemically, through depowering of lithium-ion batteries (and most any battery other than lead). The low-cost process removes flammability, power, and energy in EOLBs through non-toxic chemical processing. The opportunity for commerce of inert scrap is at least $5 billion greater than the commerce in hazardous scrap, all made possible through OnTo’s technology for efficiency and safety. (2) Depowering Improves Safety and Decreases Cost of Battery Ownership: OnTo’s depowering technology will remove half of the cost of EOLB management and recycling. Without this technology, EOLB recycling will always be a liability. EOLB is hazardous due to inherent flammability of electrolyte and lithium. The shipping and commerce of EOLBs is costly and dangerous all along the chain of custody from owner, dealership/shop, shipper, second-life sorter, (shipper again), and finally to the destination facility recycler. OnTo’s depowering service renders inert most any EOLB packs, modules, and cells. The technology uses a brief, non-toxic treatment applicable to most any chemistry. The industry needs a safe, simple, modular, and inexpensive method to render EOLBs as inert scrap. OnTo’s deactivation system is scalable to the needs of any customer along the EOLB chain of custody. (3) Evidence of Successful Depowering: Untreated batteries will catch fire and explode under abuse conditions such as heat or crush. Slide 2 below shows that untreated batteries will blow-up and expel their internal components with heating, after OnTo’s depowering treatment, the same battery is inert with the same heat treatment (Fig. 7 in the slide). Depowering also removes electrolyte reactivity, eliminating the production of HF and other toxins (Fig 6. in the slide) The depowering process is applicable to large, 26 Ah cells. Fig. 5 in the slide shows the removal of all the electrolyte from whole cells. Removal of flammable material from an EOLB contributes to the inert behavior. OnTo developed this technology through a project supported by the US Department of Energy EERE program, with partners including Seattle King County Metro Transit. While OnTo has generated evidence of successful depowering of batteries, in 2020, a follow-on voucher opportunity for third party analysis of depowered cells and materials was approved through CalTestBed. The expertise of the battery and materials research groups at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory will characterize these depowered cells to provide better understanding of the materials level changes in depowering. (4) Pilot Plant for Depowering EOLBs: Making the spoke work in hub-and-spoke While other companies are marketing the hub-and-spoke approach for recycling EOLBs, they rely on dangerous, expensive shredding methods with flimsy IP protection. OnTo offers the only patented, proven ability to depower EOLBs from most any chemistry – at half of the capital cost required for shredding, while eliminating the liability, danger, and waste streams inherent with shredding. The proposed commercial pilot facility is (5) OnTo Technology LLC Company: OnTo develops advanced battery recycling innovations that produce manufacturing quality electrode materials from recycled batteries. Their patented Cathode-healing™ and Deactivation/Depowering processes improve safety and reduce the cost of recycling. OnTo’s breakthrough technologies produce advanced materials for manufacturing batteries useful in applications from portable power to electric vehicles. Contact: Steve Sloop OnTo Technology LLC, 63221 Service Road, STE F, Bend, OR 97703, ssloop@onto-technology.com , 541-389-7897

deactivation↗

Signal Decomposition for Intrusion Detection in Reliability Assessment in Cyber Resilience (Summary Report)

The complexity of assuring cyber resilience for physical process interactions in connected systems such as energy grids increases dramatically as the coupling between processes becomes more direct and responsive. An example of this growing complexity is provided by Integrated Energy Systems (IES), in which various processes such as nuclear heat generation and commodity production are being directly coupled for increased responsiveness to highly variable signals such as market pricing or electricity demand. As such, the potential attack surface of the coupled processes is larger than the two processes independently. Securing these complex systems requires two-fold monitoring: cybersecure monitoring for potential malicious incursion, and physics monitoring for system tampering. Physics monitoring includes analyzing the behavior of the signals within the system for anomalous behavior. This analysis has been shown to be insufficient if approached by only data-driven machine learning and artificial intelligence (MLAI) techniques or only low-level model comparison. Previous efforts at Purdue University suggested combining high-fidelity models with MLAI algorithms as a basis for a software tool for detecting anomalies in physical processes. This work built on that suggestion, developing an advanced library for signal decomposition and analysis using both MLAI and high-fidelity physics algorithms for greatly improved anomaly detection, especially false data injection. This software can be used as part of a secure imbedded intelligence (SEI) system designed under Consequence-driven Cyber-informed Engineering (CCE) for complex coupled systems. This library established a foundation for online and posteriori analysis of digital signals for the purpose of detecting potential malicious tampering in digital signals representing physical processes. Demonstrations carried out throughout the development highlight the effective use of characterization algorithms to detect signal perturbations, particularly triangle attack-style perturbations, in three wide-ranging applications: seismic monitoring, nuclear thermal hydraulics system simulation, and custom manufacturing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

California air transportation study: A transportation system for the California Corridor of the year 2010

To define and solve the problems of transportation in the California Corrider in the year 2010, the 1989 California Polytechnic State University Aeronautical Engineering Senior Design class determined future corridor transportation needs and developed a system to meet the requirements. A market study, which included interpreting travel demand and gauging the future of regional and national air travel in and out of the corridor, allowed the goals of the project to be accurately refined. Comprehensive trade-off studies of several proposed transporation systems were conducted to determine which components would form the final proposed system. Preliminary design and further analysis were performed for each resulting component. The proposed system consists of three vehicles and a special hub or mode mixer, the Corridor Access Port (CAP). The vehicles are: (1) an electric powered aircraft to serve secondary airports and the CAP; (2) a high speed magnetic levitation train running through the CAP and the high population density areas of the corridor; and (3) a vertical takeoff and landing tilt rotor aircraft to serve both intercity and intrametropolitan travelers from the CAP and city vertiports. The CAP is a combination and an extension of the hub, mode mixer, and Wayport concepts. The CAP is an integrated part of the system which meets the travel demands in the corridor, and interfaces with interstate and international travel.

Source record↗

Escalation: How Much is Enough?

Determining the escalation percentage to an estimate is often the subject of fierce debate. Cost increases are determined by dynamic relati onships between many factors, including acts of nature, interest rate s, oil prices, global commodity markets, wars, wage rates, and the ov erall health of the economy, as well as supply and demand for the required goods or services. How much escalation is enough? Are the recen t price increases temporary aberrations, or will they continue to pla gue us? This paper examines historical escalation rates, as well as i ndications of trends. Various analysis methods -- Monte Carlo simulations, neural networks, trend impact analysis, and the Delphi method -- are examined in an attempt to determine future trends.

Butts, Glenn↗

Computational Study of the Side-By-Side Urban Air Taxi Concept

High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics simulations of NASA’s Side-by-side air taxi concept have been carried out. The three-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are solved on overset grids using high-order accurate schemes, dual-time stepping, and a hybrid turbulence model. The flow solver has been loosely coupled with a helicopter comprehensive analysis code in order to get the trimmed flight solution. The vehicle simulated is a six-passenger side-by-side intermeshing rotor helicopter with hybrid propulsion for air taxi operations, also known as urban air mobility applications. This concept vehicle is intended to focus and guide NASA research activities in support of aircraft development for emerging aviation markets, in particular vertical take-off and landing air taxi operations.

Ventura Diaz, Patricia↗

Performance analysis of integrated Nuclear-Solar Energy system sharing same molten salt thermal energy storage

Advanced nuclear reactors may be deployed with integrated thermal energy storage to improve flexibility and maximize revenue. This presents opportunities for thermal integration with concentrating solar power (CSP) to generate component synergies and/or improve performance. Here in this study, a computational model is developed for an integrated nuclear and CSP system that both share the same molten salt thermal energy storage (TES). Optimized dispatch schedules are developed subject to various market conditions, and the ratio of the nuclear to CSP thermal output is also varied. Performance of the combined system is compared to separate nuclear and solar plants, to determine if there is an overall benefit that can be derived from sharing the TES. Given sufficient volatility in electricity prices (e.g., under CAISO market conditions), synergies of up to 8% in net revenue are observed as a result of sharing the same TES, primarily due to improved revenue from enabling operation of the turbine closer to its design point, as well as being able to better take advantage of higher electricity prices. The synergy benefits are largest when the nuclear and solar plants have similar thermal output. However, when prices are less volatile the opposite behavior can be observed and it can be preferable to operate the nuclear plant as a baseload generator.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

Distributed clean energy opportunities for US oil refinery operations

The oil and gas industry is increasingly seeking operational improvements to reduce costs and emissions while improving resilience. This study describes techno-economic analysis of opportunities for distributed energy resources that could be integrated to support oil and gas companies’ economic, environmental, and energy resiliency goals. Specifically, the analysis evaluates solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, battery energy storage, landfill gas, biomass, municipal solid waste-to-energy, solar steam for process heat, combined heat and power, and electrolyzers for hydrogen production at two hypothetical refineries, one located in Louisiana and the other in southern California. These technologies could reduce the sites’ consumption of grid electricity and/or natural gas and thus can help reduce emissions. This study employs the ReOPT tool and System Advisor Model to evaluate the techno-economic potential for clean energy technologies to support refineries in achieving energy goals, including energy cost savings, resiliency, and emissions reductions. Results indicate that the associated costs of emissions reductions via several distributed clean energy technologies are competitive with other emissions reduction strategies such as energy efficiency, reducing flaring, direct carbon capture and sequestration, and markets under certain conditions. There are also cost beneficial opportunities for the use of renewable energy for refining, especially for resilience, depending on local conditions such as resources and utility costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fundamental insights on ignition and combustion of natural gas in an active fueled pre-chamber spark-ignition system

Pre-chamber spark-ignition (PCSI), either fueled or non-fueled, is a leading concept with the potential to enable diesel-like efficiency in medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) natural gas (NG) engines. However, the inadequate scientific base and simulation tools to describe/predict the underlying processes governing PCSI systems is one of the key barriers to market penetration of PCSI for MD/HD NG engines. To this end, experiments were performed in a heavy-duty, optical, single-cylinder engine fitted with an active fueled PCSI module. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal progress of ignition and subsequent combustion of lean-burn natural gas using PCSI system were studied using optical diagnostic imaging and heat release analysis based on main-chamber and pre-chamber pressure measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Operational awareness in future space transportation system concepts and technology selections

An analysis of operations for a two-stage, fully reusable future space transportation system has been performed, and the results are discussed. The value of conducting an analysis of operations in the conceptual design phase to produce a highly productive system was demonstrated by obtaining estimated reductions in resources and ground turnaround time and comparing them with estimated mature Shuttle program requirements. Cooperative efforts by users, future vehicle designers, and operations analysts during the conceptual design phase are shown to produce an efficient vehicle design with broad market potential. The synergistic effects of vehicle design configuration, subsystems, and procedures can enhance productivity of the transportation system as measured by flexibility, availability, and viability. Advanced technologies and subsystems beneficial to such a system are identified.

Eide, D. G.↗

Cost characteristics of tilt-rotor, conventional air and high speed rail short-haul intercity passenger service

The cost analysis done to support an assessment of the potential for a small tilt-rotor aircraft to operate in short-haul intercity passenger service is described in detail. Anticipated costs of tilt-rotor air service were compared to the costs of two alternatives: conventional air and high speed rail (HSR). Costs were developed for corridor service, varying key market characteristics including distance, passenger volumes, and minimum frequency standards. The resulting cost vs output information can then be used to compare modal costs for essentially identical service quality and passenger volume or for different service levels and volumes for each mode, as appropriate. Extensive sensitivity analyses are performed. The cost-output features of these technologies are compared. Tilt-rotor is very attractive compared to HSR in terms of costs over the entire range of volume. It also has costs not dramatically different from conventional air, but tilt-rotor costs are generally higher. Thus some of its other advantages, such as the VTOL capability, must offset the cost disadvantage for it to be a preferred or competitive mode in any given market. These issues are addressed in the companion report which considers strategies for tilt-rotor development in commercial air service.

Schoendorfer, David L.↗

An analysis of long and medium-haul air passenger demand, volume 1

A basic model was developed which is a two equation pair econometric system in which air passenger demand and airline level-of-service are the endogenous variables. The model aims to identify the relationship between each of these two variables and its determining factors, and to identify the interaction of demand and level-of-service with each other. The selected variable for the measure of air passenger traffic activity in a given pair market is defined as the number of passengers in a given time that originate in one region and fly to the other region for purposes other than to make a connection to a third region. For medium and long haul markets, the model seems to perform better for larger markets. This is due to a specification problem regarding the route structure variable. In larger markets, a greater percentage of nonlocal passengers are accounted for by this variable. Comparing the estimated fare elasticities of long and medium haul markets, it appears that air transportation demand is more price elastic in longer haul markets. Long haul markets demand will saturate with a fewer number of departures than will demand in medium haul markets.

Eriksen, S. E.↗