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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55

Temporal sequence transformer to advance long-term streamflow prediction

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial for understanding climate change impacts on water resources and for effective management of extreme hydrological events. While Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have been the dominant data-driven approach for streamflow forecasting, recent advancements in transformer architectures for time series tasks have shown promise in outperforming traditional LSTM models. This study introduces a transformer-based model that integrates historical streamflow data with climatic variables to enhance streamflow prediction accuracy. We evaluated our transformer model against a benchmark LSTM across five diverse basins in the United States. Results demonstrate that the transformer architecture consistently outperforms the LSTM model across all evaluation metrics, highlighting its potential as a more effective tool for hydrological forecasting. This research contributes to the ongoing development of advanced AI techniques for improved water resource management and climate change adaptation strategies.

Singh, Ruhaan [Farragut High School]↗

Considerations for Long-Term Load Forecasting in Morocco

There are many factors that determine how demand for electricity may change over time. These factors include GDP, population size, and technology diffusion and adoption. We employ a simple extrapolation of current trends in Morocco GDP to estimate how the peak demand and annual consumption may change through the year 2030. We discuss the many factors that this approach does not take into account (such as adoption of air conditioning, electric vehicles, and distributed generation).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time-temperature-superposition analysis of diverse datasets by the minimum-arclength method: long-term prediction with uncertainty margins

In a recent publication, we carried out an extensive analysis of an unsupervised method of determining optimum shift factors in time-temperature-superposition of accelerated-aging data that involves minimizing the vertical arclength to obtain the master curve. For synthetic Arrhenius data with a variety of noise distributions, the work showed that, in conjunction with bootstrap-resampling, the method can produce reliable estimates of the mean activation energy along with uncertainty quantification. Here, we apply the above method to six different datasets taken from the published literature and demonstrate accurate prediction of mean activation energy from the data as-is without the need for any pre-processing or fitting. We also compare uncertainty margins computed by second-order bootstrap with that by linear regression theory and show that the former appears to provide consistent margins in the presence of common noise types in real data, including intra-isotherm measurement-errors, sample-to-sample variations, and intrinsic deviation from perfect Arrhenius behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Long-term thermal aging of parylene conformal coating under high humidity and its effects on tin whisker mitigation

Usage of pure tin (Sn) or Sn-rich alloy in electronics industry is growing, which makes them more susceptible to the spontaneous growth of tin whiskers. The risk of having these whiskers can be dramatically mitigated by applying a conformal coating provided that it not only possesses excellent mechanical and adhesion properties but also maintains these properties throughout their service. Parylene C is commonly used as a conformal coating because of its favorable mechanical and physical properties, as well as superior conformal coverage. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the degradation of parylene C coating during the thermal aging in high humidity environment (85°C/85% relative humidity for up to 5000hrs) and its effect on the tin whisker mitigation capacity. It was observed that during aging at high temperature and high humidity (HTHH) environment, the oxidation occurs at early times, followed by bond scission, resulting in the loss of strength of the coating. Thinner parylene coating (12.5-μm-thick) had better coating adhesion on the silane-treated tin surface, so provided the better protection for tin whisker penetration than the thicker counterpart (25-μm-thick). After 2500hrs of aging, due to the degradation of the silane agent at the tin/parylene interface, the adhesion of the parylene coating was significantly weakened on the tin surface, which resulted in extensive corrosion of the tin solderpads. The loss of adhesion of the coating, along with the corrosion of the tin surface facilitated the tin whisker nucleation at the interface while the loss of mechanical strength and the brittleness made the coating easily penetrated by the growing whiskers. Tin whiskers with a smaller diameter were buckled and grew along the delaminated region while those with a larger diameter penetrated and continued to grow through the coating. Hence, the effectiveness of the parylene coatings on tin whisker mitigation is significantly reduced under long exposure to such high temperature and high humidity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interfacial stabilization for inverted perovskite solar cells with long-term stability

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) commonly exhibit significant performance degradation due to ion migration through the top charge transport layer and ultimately metal electrode corrosion. Here, we demonstrate an interfacial management strategy using a boron chloride subphthalocyanine (Cl 6 SubPc)/fullerene electron-transport layer, which not only passivates the interfacial defects in the perovskite, but also suppresses halide diffusion as evidenced by multiple techniques, including visual element mapping by electron energy loss spectroscopy. As a result, we obtain inverted PSCs with an efficiency of 22.0% (21.3% certified), shelf life of 7000 h, Τ 80 of 816 h under damp heat stress (compared to less than 20 h without Cl 6 SubPc), and initial performance retention of 98% after 2000 h at 80 °C in inert environment, 90% after 2034 h of illumination and maximum power point tracking in ambient for encapsulated devices and 95% after 1272 h outdoor testing ISOS-O-1. Our strategy and results pave a new way to move PSCs forward to their potential commercialization solidly.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Performance Restoration of Iron Electrodes by Polarity Reversal after Long-Term Surface Fouling in Wastewater Electrocoagulation

Iron electrocoagulation (Fe-EC) performance often declines with time, producing lower contaminant removal efficiencies and higher energy requirements due to formation of a fouling layer on the electrodes. Here, we investigate the formation of the fouling layer and the effectiveness of polarity reversal to restore the Fe-EC performance. A thin, porous iron oxide layer initially forms on the anode, thickening into a dense, over 150-μm thick crystalline layer after extended operation. This fouling layer restricts dissolution and diffusion of Fe ions into the bulk solution, thus increasing the anode potential required to maintain a desired electrical current and decreasing Faradaic efficiency. Polarity reversal applied when performance decline is observed effectively removes the fouling layer, thereby restoring Faradaic and contaminant removal efficiencies and decreasing energy consumption. Our findings suggest that gas generation at the cathode surface after polarity reversal causes removal of the fouling layer. This study enhances the current understanding of fouling-layer formation in Fe-EC and offers a practical approach, involving polarity reversal, to maintain electrode reactivity and optimal Fe-EC performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

GES DISC Long-Term Data Analysis Services Using AIRS and CMS Methane Data as an Example

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) archives and distributes rich collections of data on atmospheric greenhouse gases from multiple satellite missions and model results. Among those greenhouse gases, atmospheric methane is a powerful greenhouse gas contributing ~0.5 (W/m^2) to total radiative forcing, and its concentration has increased by about 150% since 1750. Observations or estimates of methane emissions typically have sparse spatial and temporal coverage. The lack of comprehensive spatial and temporal coverage of methane source and sink observations has made analyzing atmospheric methane trends challenging. In this study the GES DISC aims to provide the community with the resources to better understand changes in atmospheric methane concentrations and the underlying causes. We will utilize methane datasets from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved methane concentration and three Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) methane emission datasets (in regions of North America, Canada, and Mexico) to compare AIRS methane growth with corresponding CMS regional methane emissions. Comparisons of AIRS methane growth rates and CMS methane emissions suggests wetland emissions may impact methane growth rate trends over North America. As the record for CMS methane data is extended, both datasets can be used in conjunction to better understand impacts on atmospheric methane trends. GES DISCs new anomaly tool can also be used on select datasets to further quantify trends in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

long-term data analysis↗

Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans

This guide was developed to improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening dialogue between electricity system planners and stakeholders throughout the process. This document was created for anyone who is first getting exposed to scenario results from power system planning models, or for those who are beginning to interact with power system modelers. It does not assume any experience with power system modeling, or familiarity with electricity planning concepts. This guide can be helpful to a wide range of people, including but not limited to state utility commissioners and commission staff, state energy offices, and intervenors in the planning process. It is targeted to those who are evaluating or reviewing model results presented by a utility, which typically span utility-scale generation and storage (and associated transmission) assets. This guide is designed to provide enough background and guidance that stakeholders can formulate and ask questions to evaluate model results through a deeper understanding of the key assumptions, data, and methods that drive decision outcomes. The ultimate purpose of this work is to increase transparency in the electricity planning process by enabling stakeholders to better engage and evaluate model results. A follow-on guide will provide a deeper dive into emerging topics, which are expected to become more prominent in the electricity planning process, but whose methods and approaches are still being refined.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Associating Long-term Gamma-ray Variability with the Superorbital Period of LS I + 61 Deg. 303

Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems for which the spectral energy distribution (discounting the thermal stellar emission) peaks at high energies. Detected from radio to TeV gamma rays, the gamma-ray binary LS I + 61◦303 is highly variable across all frequencies. One aspect of this system's variability is the modulation of its emission with the timescale set by the approx. 26.4960 day orbital period. Here we show that, during the time of our observations, the gamma-ray emission of LS I + 61 deg. 303 also presents a sinusoidal variability consistent with the previously known superorbital period of 1667 days. This modulation is more prominently seen at orbital phases around apastron, whereas it does not introduce a visible change close to periastron. It is also found in the appearance and disappearance of variability at the orbital period in the power spectrum of the data. This behavior could be explained by a quasi-cyclical evolution of the equatorial outflow of the Be companion star, whose features influence the conditions for generating gamma rays. These findings open the possibility to use gamma-ray observations to study the outflows of massive stars in eccentric binary systems.

Be↗

Long-Term Monitoring of the High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission from LS I +61 deg 303 and LS 5039

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) reported the first definitive gigaelectron volts detections of the binaries LS I +61 deg 303 and LS 5039 in the first year after its launch in 2008 June. These detections were unambiguous as a consequence of the reduced positional uncertainty and the detection of modulated gamma-ray emission on the corresponding orbital periods. An analysis of new data from the LAT, comprising 30 months of observations, identifies a change in the gamma-ray behavior of LS I +61 deg 303. An increase in flux is detected in 2009 March and a steady decline in the orbital flux modulation is observed. Significant emission up to 30 gigaelectron volts is detected by the LAT; prior data sets led to upper limits only. Contemporaneous terraelectron volt observations no longer detected the source, or found it-in one orbit-close to periastron, far from the phases at which the source previously appeared at terraelectron volt energies. The detailed numerical simulations and models that exist within the literature do not predict or explain many of these features now observed at gigaelectron volt and terraelectron volt energies. New ideas and models are needed to fully explain and understand this behavior. A detailed phase-resolved analysis of the spectral characterization of LS I +61 deg 303 in the gigaelectron volt regime ascribes a power law with an exponential cutoff spectrum along each analyzed portion of the system's orbit. The on-source exposure of LS 5039 is also substantially increased with respect to our prior publication. In this case, whereas the general gamma-ray properties remain consistent, the increased statistics of the current data set allows for a deeper investigation of its orbital and spectral evolution.

High-energy↗

Providing Long-term Solar and Meteorological Resource Information from NASA Research through the GIS-Enabled POWER Web Services Portal

Solar and other renewable energy systems are optimized using geophysical parameters describing information about the solar resource and meteorological environments and how those environments may be changing in time. The Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy Resource (POWER) team at the NASA LaRC Research Center deployed its first version of the revitalized POWER geophysical parameter website that employs Esri Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. This web application provides access to both time series and climatological data sets spanning from a few days behind real-time back to the early 1980’s with a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree, thus extending over 30 years. The GIS tools enable, generate and store climatological averages using spatial queries and calculations in a spatial database resulting in greater accessibility to government agencies, industry and individuals. There is an API that provides data through a URL coding and can also invoked inside user software packages. Output data formats now include ASCII, CSV, geoTiff, JSON and .netCDF. Since May 2018, over 10.4 TB of data have been delivered to fulfill over 110 million data requests from 240,000 unique user IPs (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). This presentation provides an overview of this project and the current version of the new POWER web capabilities through to the end usage. Surface solar parameters are adapted from both the NASA/GEWEX (Global and Energy Water Cycle Exchange) SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) project and the CERES (Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System) data products. The meteorological parameters are adapted from NASA’s MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). We review uncertainty of various basic parameters using surface measurements. After the introduction, we specifically discuss various clusters of parameters for equator pointing tilted surfaces that provide for the estimation of optimal tilt angle by month and year. The discussion will emphasize a few examples of how solar and building engineers are using the data products. We will then preview the capabilities of Version 2 featuring examples of hourly solar and meteorological data products, customized user reports and expanded web mapping services from CERES data products. The web services provide a unique, expandable resource for renewable energy systems engineers to design, evaluate and optimize to environments worldwide.

Solar Resource↗

Long-term survival of bacterial spores in space

On board of the NASA Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), spores of Bacillus subtilis in monolayers (10(exp 6)/sample) or multilayers (10(exp 8)/sample) were exposed to the space environment for nearly six years and their survival was analyzed after retrieval. The response to space parameters, such as vacuum (10(exp -6) Pa), solar electromagnetic radiation up to the highly energetic vacuum-ultraviolet range 10(exp 9) J/sq m) and/or cosmic radiation (4.8 Gy), was studied and compared to the results of a simultaneously running ground control experiment. If shielded against solar ultraviolet (UV)-radiation, up to 80% of spores in multilayers survive in space. Solar UV-radiation, being the most deleterious parameter of space, reduces survival by 4 orders of magnitude or more. However, up to 10(exp 4) viable spores were still recovered, even in completely unprotected samples. Substances, such as glucose or buffer salts serve as chemical protectants. With this 6 year study in space, experimental data are provided to the discussion on the likelihood of 'Panspermia'.

Horneck, G.↗

Long-term exposure of bacterial spores to space

With the NASA mission of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), the authors have obtained the opportunity to expose Bacillus subtilis spores for nearly six years to the space environment and to analyze their responses after retrieval. The experiment was mounted onto a side tray of LDEF facing space. Data shows that the chances of microorganisms surviving in free space will be greatly increased by adequate shielding against solar ultraviolet light.

Horneck, G.↗

Predicting Team Functioning in Long Term Space Missions Using Acoustic and Linguistic Measures

Maintaining optimal team functioning is critical for long-duration space exploration missions, yet traditional monitoring methods, such as self-reports and wearable sensors, often impose operational burdens or suffer from bias. This paper investigates a non-intrusive speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) framework to predict degradations in team functioning using data from the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using acoustic features, linguistic descriptors, and semantic embeddings, we evaluate static non-linear and temporal machine learning models to predict both objective (task accuracy) and subjective (self-reported efficacy and cohesion) team functioning outcomes. Results indicate that temporal models outperform static approaches, with prediction of objective task accuracy in Team Interaction Battery (TIB) improving from near chance to 71%. Self-reported outcomes, including team efficacy and cohesion, are predicted more reliably than task performance, achieving balanced accuracies of up to 85.56% and 78.12%, respectively, and are found to be most strongly associated with acoustic features. In a second interdependent task, the MMSEV–EVA, accuracies of up to 78% are achieved using temporal models with acoustic features. Furthermore, incorporating just 1–2 days of team-specific historical data systematically improved performance, and acoustic markers from informal pre-task interactions provided modest predictive gains. Finally, while automated preprocessing yielded viable accuracy, humancorrected data provided moderate performance gains, though transcription error rates did not significantly correlate with model performance. These findings highlight the potential of speech as a passive, high-fidelity monitoring tool for autonomous habitats.

Temporal modeling↗

Long-term cement hydration studies with isothermal calorimetry

The purpose of this study was to investigate for how long the thermal power of hydration can be measured with isothermal calorimetry, which is a general measurement technique with stable properties that, in many cases, can detect low rates of processes. Measurements were conducted for 365 days on cement paste with Portland cement, fly ash blended Portland cement and different water-to-binder ratios. The results showed that all the tested systems still produced a measureable signal after one year. The samples with Portland cement were also analyzed by XRD after 365 days, and phase composition calculations were made with GEMS. Together with the calorimetric results, these results were used to determine the degree of hydration by five methods, the results of which showed good agreement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effects of long term exposure on optical substrates and coatings (SOO50-2)

Kodak included 12 substrate and coating samples on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) structure. There were 3 fused silica and 3 ultra low expansion (ULE(tm)) uncoated glass samples, 2 ULE(tm) samples with a high reflectance silver coating, 2 fused silica samples with an antireflectance coating, and 2 fused silica samples with a solar rejection coating. The sample dimensions were 32 mm diameter by 1 mm thick. A set of duplicate control samples was also manufactured and stored in a controlled environment for comparison purposes. A preliminary evaluation of the flight samples for effects from the 5 year mission showed that a contaminant was deposited on the samples, a micrometeroid impact occurred on one of the samples, and the radiation darkening which was expected for the glass did not occur. The results are presented in more detail.

John Vallimont↗