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At least 991 records · Page 55

On the perihelion precession as a Machian effect

A Lagrangian is constructed which gives Newtonian gravity in the lowest-order approximation in an isotropic universe and also predicts the correct advance of the perihelion with the proper choice of a constant governing the ratio of inertial to gravitational mass. The situation considered is that of a test particle orbiting a central body with external mass at rest and distributed isotropically at large distances from the central body. In the theory developed, the perihelion advance is due to a small contribution to the test-particle inertial mass by the central attracting body rather than to a failure of the inverse-square law of attraction. Some interesting Machian features of this theory are that: (1) the local value of the gravitational constant is determined by the mass distribution of the external matter; (2) the orbits are fixed, and the perihelion advances unambiguously with respect to the external-mass distribution; (3) there are no vestiges of absolute space; (4) the perihelion precession arises from the inertial interaction of the test particle with the central mass; (5) the local rest mass is really determined by the mass distribution of the rest of the universe; and (6) a limited form of the equivalence principle is inherent in one of the equations.

Eby, P. B.↗

On the rotation rate in the solar convection zone

Recently Gough et al. (1993) have argued that the rotation rate in parts of the solar convection zone may be constant on cylinders as predicted by models of the convection zone, contrary to the inferences generally made from helioseismology. Here we consider models similar to those suggested by Gough et al. and show that they are either inconsistent with observations made by Fourier Tachometer or require unphysical rotation rates in other parts of the Sun. These observations use a more detailed model of the effects of the solar rotation on the observed frequencies than that used in reducing previous observations. We also show the results of an inversion of the Fourier Tachometer observations and compare it with an inversion of data similar to that used previously. The result of this inversion generally confirms the conclusions from previous inversions.

Schou, Jepser↗

Effects of Gravity on the Double-Diffusive Convection during Directional Solidification of a Non-Dilute Alloy with Application to the HgCdTe

General 2-D and 3-D finite element model of non-dilute alloy solidification was used to simulate growth of HgCdTe in terrestrial and microgravity conditions. Parametric research was undertaken to investigate effects of gravity level, gravity vector orientation and growth velocity on the pattern of melt convection, shape of crystal/melt interface and radial thermal gradient. Verification of the model was undertaken by comparison with previously published results. For low growth velocities plane front solidification occurs. The location and the shape of the interface was determined using melting temperatures obtained from the HgCdTe liquidus curve. The low thermal conductivity of the solid HgCdTe causes thermal short circuit through the ampoule walls, resulting in curved isotherms in the vicinity of the interface. Double-diffusive convection in the melt is caused by radial temperature gradients and by material density inversion with temperature. Cooling from below and the rejection at the solid-melt interface of the heavier HgTe-rich solute each tend to reduce convection. Because of these complicating factors dimensional rather then non-dimensional modeling was performed. For gravity levels higher then 10(exp -7) of terrestrial one it was found that the maximum convection velocity is extremely sensitive to gravity vector orientation and can be reduced at least by 50% by choosing proper orientation of the ampoule. The predicted interface shape is in agreement with one obtained experimentally by quenching.

Bune, Andris↗

Analytical Algorithms to Quantify the Uncertainty in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decisionmaking. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliability method (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

Sankararaman, Shankar↗

Field evaluation of semi‐automated moisture estimation from geophysics using machine learning

Geophysical methods can provide three-dimensional (3D), spatially continuous estimates of soil moisture. However, point-to-point comparisons of geophysical properties to measure soil moisture data are frequently unsatisfactory, resulting in geophysics being used for qualitative purposes only. This is because (1) geophysics requires models that relate geophysical signals to soil moisture, (2) geophysical methods have potential uncertainties resulting from smoothing and artifacts introduced from processing and inversion, and (3) results from multiple geophysical methods are not easily combined within a single soil moisture estimation framework. To investigate these potential limitations, an irrigation experiment was performed wherein soil moisture was monitored through time, and several surface geophysical datasets indirectly sensitive to soil moisture were collected before and after irrigation: ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and frequency domain electromagnetics (FDEM). Data were exported in both raw and processed form, and then snapped to a common 3D grid to facilitate moisture prediction by standard calibration techniques, multivariate regression, and machine learning. A combination of inverted ERT data, raw FDEM, and inverted FDEM data was most informative for predicting soil moisture using a random regression forest model (one-thousand 60/40 training/test cross-validation folds produced root mean squared errors ranging from 0.025–0.046 cm 3 /cm 3 ). This cross-validated model was further supported by a separate evaluation using a test set from a physically separate portion of the study area. Machine learning was conducive to a semi-automated model-selection process that could be used for other sites and datasets to locally improve accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The prediction of zenith range refraction from surface measurements of meteorological parameters

In the last two decades, increasingly sophisticated deep space missions have placed correspondingly stringent requirements on navigational accuracy. As part of the effort to increase navigational accuracy, and hence the quality of radiometric data, much effort has been expended in an attempt to understand and compute the tropospheric effect on range (and hence range rate) data. The general approach adopted has been that of computing a zenith range refraction, and then mapping this refraction to any arbitrary elevation angle via an empirically derived function of elevation. The prediction of zenith range refraction derived from surface measurements of meteorological parameters is presented. Refractivity is separated into wet (water vapor pressure) and dry (atmospheric pressure) components. The integration of dry refractivity is shown to be exact. Attempts to integrate wet refractivity directly prove ineffective; however, several empirical models developed by the author and other researchers at JPL are discussed. The best current wet refraction model is here considered to be a separate day/night model, which is proportional to surface water vapor pressure and inversely proportional to surface temperature. Methods are suggested that might improve the accuracy of the wet range refraction model.

Berman, A. L.↗

Sequential estimation and satellite data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography

The central theme of this review article is the role that dynamics plays in estimating the state of the atmosphere and of the ocean from incomplete and noisy data. Objective analysis and inverse methods represent an attempt at relying mostly on the data and minimizing the role of dynamics in the estimation. Four-dimensional data assimilation tries to balance properly the roles of dynamical and observational information. Sequential estimation is presented as the proper framework for understanding this balance, and the Kalman filter as the ideal, optimal procedure for data assimilation. The optimal filter computes forecast error covariances of a given atmospheric or oceanic model exactly, and hence data assimilation should be closely connected with predictability studies. This connection is described, and consequences drawn for currently active areas of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences, namely, mesoscale meteorology, medium and long-range forecasting, and upper-ocean dynamics.

Ghil, M.↗

On the Rotation Rate in the Solar Convection Zone

Recently is has been argued that the rotation rate in parts of the solar convection zone may be constant on cylinders as predicted by models of the convection zone, contrary to the inferences generally made from helioseismology. Here we consider models similar to those suggested by Gough et al. and show that they are either inconsistent with observations made by the Fourier Tachometer or require unphysical rotation rates in other parts of the Sun. These observations use a more detailed model of the effects of the solar rotation on the observed frequencies than that used in reducing previous observations. We also show the result of an inversion of the Fourier Tachometer observations and compare it with an inversion of data similar to that used previously. The result of this inversion generally confirms the conclusions from previous inversions.

Schou, Jesper↗

The Evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) evaluated the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) contained within the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS). ERDAS provides emergency response guidance for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center operations in the event of an accidental hazardous material release or aborted vehicle launch. The RAMS prognostic data are available to ERDAS for display and are used to initialize the 45th Space Wing/Range Safety dispersion model. Thus, the accuracy of the dispersion predictions is dependent upon the accuracy of RAMS forecasts. The RAMS evaluation consisted of an objective and subjective component for the 1999 and 2000 Florida warm seasons, and the 1999-2000 cool season. In the objective evaluation, the AMU generated model error statistics at surface and upper-level observational sites, compared RAMS errors to a coarser RAMS grid configuration, and benchmarked RAMS against the nationally-used Eta model. In the subjective evaluation, the AMU compared forecast cold fronts, low-level temperature inversions, and precipitation to observations during the 1999-2000 cool season, verified the development of the RAMS forecast east coast sea breeze during both warm seasons, and examined the RAMS daily thunderstorm initiation and precipitation patterns during the 2000 warm season. This report summarizes the objective and subjective verification for all three seasons.

Case, Jonathan↗

High-Energy Emission From Millisecond Pulsars

The X-ray and gamma-ray spectrum of rotation-powered millisecond pulsars is investigated in a model for acceleration and pair cascades on open field lines above the polar caps. Although these pulsars have low surface magnetic fields, their short periods allow them to have large magnetospheric potential drops, but the majority do not produce sufficient pairs to completely screen the accelerating electric field. In these sources, the primary and secondary electrons continue to accelerate to high altitude and their Lorentz factors are limited by curvature and synchrotron radiation reaction. The accelerating particles maintain high Lorentz factors and undergo cyclotron resonant absorption of radio emission, that produces and maintains a large pitch angle, resulting in a strong synchrotron component. The resulting spectra consist of several distinct components: curvature radiation from primary electrons dominating from 1 - 100 GeV, synchrotron radiation from primary and secondary electrons dominating up to about 100 MeV, and much weaker inverse-Compton radiation from primary electrons a t 0.1 - 1 TeV. We find that the relative size of these components depends on pulsar period, period derivative, and neutron star mass and radius with the level of the synchrotron component also depending sensitively on the radio emission properties. This model is successful in describing the observed X-ray and gamma-ray spectrum of PSR J0218+4232 as synchrotron radiation, peaking around 100 MeV and extending up to a turnover around several GeV. The predicted curvature radiation components from a number of millisecond pulsars, as well as the collective emission from the millisecond pulsars in globular clusters, should be detectable with AGILE and GLAST. We also discuss a hidden population of X-ray-quiet and radio-quiet millisecond pulsars which have evolved below the pair death line, some of which may be detectable by telescopes sensitive above 1 GeV. Subject headings: pulsars: general - radiation mechanisms: nonthermal - stars: neutron - gamma rays: theory

Harding, Alice K.↗

A TOPAS model for lens-based proton radiography

Abstract Objective. Proton Radiography can be used in conjunction with proton therapy for patient positioning, real-time estimates of stopping power, and adaptive therapy in regions with motion. The modeling capability shown here can be used to evaluate lens-based radiography as an instantaneous proton-based radiographic technique. The utilization of user-friendly Monte Carlo program TOPAS enables collaborators and other users to easily conduct medical- and therapy- based simulations of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). The resulting transport model is an open-source Monte Carlo package for simulations of proton and heavy ion therapy treatments and concurrent particle imaging. Approach. The four-quadrupole, magnetic lens system of the 800-MeV proton beamline at LANSCE is modeled in TOPAS. Several imaging and contrast objects were modelled to assess transmission at energies from 230–930 MeV and different levels of particle collimation. At different proton energies, the strength of the magnetic field was scaled according to βγ, the inverse product of particle relativistic velocity and particle momentum. Main results. Materials with high atomic number, Z, (gold, gallium, bone-equivalent) generated more contrast than materials with low-Z (water, lung-equivalent, adipose-equivalent). A 5-mrad collimator was beneficial for tissue-to-contrast agent contrast, while a 10-mrad collimator was best to distinguish between different high-Z materials. Assessment with a step-wedge phantom showed water-equivalent path length did not scale directly according to predicted values but could be mapped more accurately with calibration. Poor image quality was observed at low energies (230 MeV), but improved as proton energy increased, with sub-mm resolution at 630 MeV. Significance. Proton radiography becomes viable for shallow bone structures at 330 MeV, and for deeper structures at 630 MeV. Visibility improves with use of high-Z contrast agents. This modality may be particularly viable at carbon therapy centers with accelerators capable of delivering high energy protons and could be performed with carbon therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Shape Changes in the N = 28 Island of Inversion: Collective Structures Built on Configuration-Coexisting States in 43 S

The neutron-rich nuclei in the N = 28 island of inversion have attracted considerable experimental and theoretical attention, providing great insight into the evolution of shell structure and nuclear shape in exotic nuclei. In this study, for the first time, quadrupole collectivity is assessed simultaneously on top of the 3/2 - ground state and the 7/2 - shape-coexisting isomer of 43 S, putting the unique interpretation of shape and configuration coexistence at N = 27 and 28 in the sulfur isotopic chain to the test. From an analysis of the electromagnetic transition strengths and quadrupole moments predicted within the shell model, it is shown that the onset of shape coexistence and the emergence of a simple collective structure appear suddenly in 43 S with no indication of such patterns in the N = 27 isotone 45 Ar.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The atmosphere of Saturn - An infrared perspective

A model of the radiative portion of the equatorial atmosphere of Saturn, constrained by the infrared data of various observers, has been constructed using a technique which includes the variation of thermal flux with depth. The model has a high-altitude temperature inversion due to the absorption of ultraviolet sunlight. The inversion causes the observed infrared emission peaks at 8 microns (methane) and 12 microns (ethane). Mixing ratios of these gases to hydrogen are computed from these emission features. The bottom of the modeled region occurs at the radiative convective boundary. At this level, an opaque cloud consisting of solid ammonia condensation particles is postulated. Above the cloud is a thin haze, also composed of ammonia particles. The haze is required to match infrared observations near 9.5 microns and hydrogen quadrupole equivalent widths near 0.64 micron. Predictions of the model are given for further observational tests.

Caldwell, J.↗

A computer program for thermal radiation from gaseous rocket exhuast plumes (GASRAD)

A computer code is presented for predicting incident thermal radiation from defined plume gas properties in either axisymmetric or cylindrical coordinate systems. The radiation model is a statistical band model for exponential line strength distribution with Lorentz/Doppler line shapes for 5 gaseous species (H2O, CO2, CO, HCl and HF) and an appoximate (non-scattering) treatment of carbon particles. The Curtis-Godson approximation is used for inhomogeneous gases, but a subroutine is available for using Young's intuitive derivative method for H2O with Lorentz line shape and exponentially-tailed-inverse line strength distribution. The geometry model provides integration over a hemisphere with up to 6 individually oriented identical axisymmetric plumes, a single 3-D plume, Shading surfaces may be used in any of 7 shapes, and a conical limit may be defined for the plume to set individual line-of-signt limits. Intermediate coordinate systems may specified to simplify input of plumes and shading surfaces.

Reardon, J. E.↗

Behavior and mechanisms of Doppler wind lidar error in complex terrain: stable flow case study at Perdigão

A numerical experiment is carried out investigating the magnitude of biases in ground-based lidar measurements in complex flow conditions. Biases assessed include those arising from flow curvature and from the interaction of turbulence with the wind field reconstruction (WFR) algorithms used by a WindCube lidars and anemometers. RANS-CFD and WRF-LES simulations were performed for the Perdig˜ao Field Experiment site for a range of atmospheric conditions. Virtual anemometer and lidar data were generated for four locations: two near exposed ridge tops and two in low-speed regions in the valley. The LES data at these four locations show that the scalar inflation terms (the relation between scalar and vector averaged wind speed) for virtual lidar and virtual cups agree very well with predictions using perturbation theory. While the lidar errors vary greatly with location and height, the contribution from the flow curvature tends to be larger than the differences arising from scalar inflation. For one lidar/mast pair near the ridge top, comparisons between simulations and measurements are carried out for a resonant mountain wave event on June 14th, 2017, and for the whole duration of the Perdigão campaign for winds perpendicular to the ridges. The lidar error during the mountain wave, a period of strong stability and low inversion height, is significantly larger than the campaign average. The sensitivity of the lidar error to atmospheric stability is confirmed by the RANS simulations, which suggests strong sensitivity of flow curvature error to stability conditions and to the shape of the wind speed profile near the top of the boundary layer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Bimodal Diagnostic Cloud Fraction Parameterization. Part I: Motivating Analysis and Scheme Description

Cloud fraction parameterizations are beneficial to regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction. For its operational regional midlatitude forecasts, the Met Office uses a diagnostic cloud fraction scheme that relies on a unimodal, symmetric subgrid saturation-departure distribution. This scheme has been shown before to underestimate cloud cover and hence an empirically based bias correction is used operationally to improve performance. This first of a series of two papers proposes a new diagnostic cloud scheme as a more physically based alternative to the operational bias correction. The new cloud scheme identifies entrainment zones associated with strong temperature inversions. Additionally, for model grid boxes located in this entrainment zone, collocated moist and dry Gaussian modes are used to represent the subgrid conditions. The mean and width of the Gaussian modes, inferred from the turbulent characteristics, are then used to diagnose cloud water content and cloud fraction. It is shown that the new scheme diagnoses enhanced cloud cover for a given gridbox mean humidity, similar to the current operational approach. It does so, however, in a physically meaningful way. Using observed aircraft data and ground-based retrievals over the southern Great Plains in the United States, it is shown that the new scheme improves the relation between cloud fraction, relative humidity, and liquid water content. An emergent property of the scheme is its ability to infer skewed and bimodal distributions from the large-scale state that qualitatively compare well against observations. A detailed evaluation and resolution sensitivity study will follow in Part II.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Arctic Alaska

Abstract Despite a need for accurate weather forecasts for societal and economic interests in the U.S. Arctic, thorough evaluations of operational numerical weather prediction in the region have been limited. In particular, the Rapid Refresh Model (RAP), which plays a key role in short-term forecasting and decision-making, has seen very limited assessment in northern Alaska, with most evaluation efforts focused on lower latitudes. In the present study, we verify forecasts from version 4 of the RAP against radiosonde, surface meteorological, and radiative flux observations from two Arctic sites on the northern Alaskan coastline, with a focus on boundary layer thermodynamic and dynamic biases, model representation of surface inversions, and cloud characteristics. We find persistent seasonal thermodynamic biases near the surface that vary with wind direction, and may be related to the RAP’s handling of sea ice and ocean interactions. These biases seem to have diminished in the latest version of the RAP (version 5), which includes refined handling of sea ice, among other improvements. In addition, we find that despite capturing boundary layer temperature profiles well overall, the RAP struggles to consistently represent strong, shallow surface inversions. Further, while the RAP seems to forecast the presence of clouds accurately in most cases, there are errors in the simulated characteristics of these clouds, which we hypothesize may be related to the RAP’s treatment of mixed-phase clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Combined Numerical/Analytical Perturbation Solutions of the Navier-Stokes Equations for Aerodynamic Ejector/Mixer Nozzle Flows

In spite of rapid advances in both scalar and parallel computational tools, the large number of variables involved in both design and inverse problems make the use of sophisticated fluid flow models impractical, With this restriction, it is concluded that an important family of methods for mathematical/computational development are reduced or approximate fluid flow models. In this study a combined perturbation/numerical modeling methodology is developed which provides a rigorously derived family of solutions. The mathematical model is computationally more efficient than classical boundary layer but provides important two-dimensional information not available using quasi-1-d approaches. An additional strength of the current methodology is its ability to locally predict static pressure fields in a manner analogous to more sophisticated parabolized Navier Stokes (PNS) formulations. To resolve singular behavior, the model utilizes classical analytical solution techniques. Hence, analytical methods have been combined with efficient numerical methods to yield an efficient hybrid fluid flow model. In particular, the main objective of this research has been to develop a system of analytical and numerical ejector/mixer nozzle models, which require minimal empirical input. A computer code, DREA Differential Reduced Ejector/mixer Analysis has been developed with the ability to run sufficiently fast so that it may be used either as a subroutine or called by an design optimization routine. Models are of direct use to the High Speed Civil Transport Program (a joint government/industry project seeking to develop an economically.viable U.S. commercial supersonic transport vehicle) and are currently being adopted by both NASA and industry. Experimental validation of these models is provided by comparison to results obtained from open literature and Limited Exclusive Right Distribution (LERD) sources, as well as dedicated experiments performed at Texas A&M. These experiments have been performed using a hydraulic/gas flow analog. Results of comparisons of DREA computations with experimental data, which include entrainment, thrust, and local profile information, are overall good. Computational time studies indicate that DREA provides considerably more information at a lower computational cost than contemporary ejector nozzle design models. Finally. physical limitations of the method, deviations from experimental data, potential improvements and alternative formulations are described. This report represents closure to the NASA Graduate Researchers Program. Versions of the DREA code and a user's guide may be obtained from the NASA Lewis Research Center.

DeChant, Lawrence Justin↗