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At least 991 records · Page 55

Recovery of Deep Moonquake Focal Mechanisms

Deep moonquakes are clustered not only in space but also in time: their recurrence times correspond to the durations of the anomalistic and draconic months, with some clusters preferring one of the two periods, while others are active with both periods. A key constraint for the understanding of the connection between the orbital motion of the Moon and its seismic activity is the focal mechanism: the orientation of the fault surface on which failure occurs during the quake. Due to the small aperture of the Apollo seismic network and the strong scattering of seismic waves within the lunar crust, the evaluation of P wave first motions to constrain the strike and dip of the fault planes is not feasible. Instead we evaluate the amplitude ratios of P and S waves. Seismograms are rotated into the P-SV-SH coordinate frame and amplitudes are determined as averages over short time windows after the arrival to reduce the impact of the scattering coda, which is independent of the source orientation. We allow for reversals of the fault motion, as observed for some clusters in previous studies, by taking into account the absolute amplitude only, without sign. An empirical site correction factor is applied to correct for amplitude distortions in the crust. We construct ensembles of fault plane solutions using an exhaustive grid search by accepting all orientations that reproduce the measured amplitude ratios within the observed standard deviations. Since all events of a given cluster are supposed to share the same fault plane, the combination of the individual inversion results further constrains the orientation. We evaluate 106 events from 25 different moonquake clusters. The most active cluster A001 contributes 37 events, while others contribute 1 to 9 events per cluster. Comparison of fault orientations with the variation of the tidal stress results in preferred orientations.

Weber, Renee C.↗

Probabilistic evaluation of fuselage-type composite structures

A methodology is developed to computationally simulate the uncertain behavior of composite structures. The uncertain behavior includes buckling loads, natural frequencies, displacements, stress/strain etc., which are the consequences of the random variation (scatter) of the primitive (independent random) variables in the constituent, ply, laminate and structural levels. This methodology is implemented in the IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) computer code. A fuselage-type composite structure is analyzed to demonstrate the code's capability. The probability distribution functions of the buckling loads, natural frequency, displacement, strain and stress are computed. The sensitivity of each primitive (independent random) variable to a given structural response is also identified from the analyses.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Probabilistic Evaluation of Fuselage-Type Composite Structures

A methodology is developed to simulate computationally the uncertain behavior of composite structures. The uncertain behavior includes buckling loads, natural frequencies, displacements, stress/strain, etc., which are the consequences of the random variation (scatter) of the primitive (independent random) variables in the constituent, plv. laminate and structural levels. This methodology is implemented in a computer code integrated probabilistic assessment of composite structures (IPACS). A fuselage-type composite structure is analyzed to demonstrate the code's capability . The probability distribution functions of the buckling loads, natural frequency, displacement, strain and stress are computed. The sensitivity of each primitive (independent random) variable to a given structural response is also identified from the analyses.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

PRACA Enhancement Pilot Study Report: Engineering for Complex Systems Program (formerly Design for Safety), DFS-IC-0006

This technology evaluation report documents the findings and recommendations of the Engineering for Complex Systems Program (formerly Design for Safety) PRACA Enhancement Pilot Study of the Space Shuttle Program's (SSP's) Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) System. A team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) performed this Study. This Study was initiated as a follow-on to the NASA chartered Shuttle Independent Assessment Team (SIAT) review (performed in the Fall of 1999) which identified deficiencies in the current PRACA implementation. The Pilot Study was launched with an initial qualitative assessment and technical review performed during January 2000 with the quantitative formal Study (the subject of this report) started in March 2000. The goal of the PRACA Enhancement Pilot Study is to evaluate and quantify the technical aspects of the SSP PRACA systems and recommend enhancements to address deficiencies and in preparation for future system upgrades.

Korsmeyer, David↗

Shadow Molecular Dynamics and Atomic Cluster Expansions for Flexible Charge Models

Here, a shadow molecular dynamics scheme for flexible charge models is presented where the shadow Born–Oppenheimer potential is derived from a coarse-grained approximation of range-separated density functional theory. The interatomic potential, including the atomic electronegativities and the charge-independent short-range part of the potential and force terms, is modeled by the linear atomic cluster expansion (ACE), which provides a computationally efficient alternative to many machine learning methods. The shadow molecular dynamics scheme is based on extended Lagrangian (XL) Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD). XL-BOMD provides stable dynamics while avoiding the costly computational overhead associated with solving an all-to-all system of equations, which normally is required to determine the relaxed electronic ground state prior to each force evaluation. To demonstrate the proposed shadow molecular dynamics scheme for flexible charge models using atomic cluster expansion, we emulate the dynamics generated from self-consistent charge density functional tight-binding (SCC-DFTB) theory using a second-order charge equilibration (QEq) model. The charge-independent potentials and electronegativities of the QEq model are trained for a supercell of uranium oxide (UO 2 ) and a molecular system of liquid water. The combined ACE+XL-QEq molecular dynamics simulations are stable over a wide range of temperatures both for the oxide and for the molecular systems and provide a precise sampling of the Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surfaces. Accurate ground Coulomb energies are produced by the ACE-based electronegativity model during an NVE simulation of UO 2 , predicted to be within 1 meV of those from SCC-DFTB on average during comparable simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comprehensive Detection of Single Amino Acid Variants and Evaluation of Their Deleterious Potential in a PANC-1 Cell Line

Identifying single amino acid variants (SAAVs) in cancer is critical for precision oncology. Several advanced algorithms are now available to identify SAAVs but attempts to combine different algorithms and optimize them on large datasets to achieve a more comprehensive coverage of SAAVs have not been implemented. Herein we report an expanded detection of SAAVs in the PANC-1 cell line using three different strategies, which results in identification of 540 SAAVs in the mass spectrometry data, the most comprehensive coverage yet reported. Among the set of 540 SAAVs, 79 are evaluated as deleterious SAAVs based on analysis using novel AssVar software in which one of the driver mutations found in each protein of KRAS, TP53 and SLC37A4 is further validated using independent selected reaction monitoring (SRM) analysis. Our study represents the most comprehensive discovery of SAAVs to date and the first large-scale detection of deleterious SAAVs in the PANC-1 cell line. This work may serve as the basis for future research in pancreatic cancer and personal immunotherapy and treatment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Robust and scalable uncertainty estimation with conformal prediction for machine-learned interatomic potentials

Abstract Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions. Established a-posteriori UQ methods, including ensemble methods, the dropout method, the delta method, and various heuristic distance metrics, have limitations such as being computationally challenging for large models due to model re-training. In addition, the uncertainty estimates are often not rigorously calibrated. In this work, we propose combining the distribution-free UQ method, known as conformal prediction (CP), with the distances in the neural network’s latent space to estimate the uncertainty of energies predicted by neural network force fields. We evaluate this method (CP+latent) along with other UQ methods on two essential aspects, calibration, and sharpness, and find this method to be both calibrated and sharp under the assumption of independent and identically-distributed (i.i.d.) data. We show that the method is relatively insensitive to hyperparameters selected, and test the limitations of the method when the i.i.d. assumption is violated. Finally, we demonstrate that this method can be readily applied to trained neural network force fields with traditional and graph neural network architectures to obtain estimates of uncertainty with low computational costs on a training dataset of 1 million images to showcase its scalability and portability. Incorporating the CP method with latent distances offers a calibrated, sharp and efficient strategy to estimate the uncertainty of neural network force fields. In addition, the CP approach can also function as a promising strategy for calibrating uncertainty estimated by other approaches.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

New constraint on the Np 237 ( n , γ ) Np 238 integral cross section using the Godiva-IV critical assembly

Accurate knowledge of the 237 Np(n, γ) 238 Np cross section at fast neutron energies is important for applied nuclear science. The presently available experimental data has large disagreements in the fast neutron region. Perform a model-independent measurement of the 237 Np(n, γ) 238 Np integral cross section using a well characterized fast neutron source and compare the result with previous measurements and current nuclear data evaluations. Provide an integral measurement that can be used as a benchmark for current evaluations. Multiple samples of 237 Np were irradiated in the Godiva-IV critical assembly. Following the irradiation, the samples placed in a γ-ray counting setup and the γ-rays emitted from the decay of 238 Np were measured over a time period of approximately 7 days. Multiple γ-ray decay branches of 238 Np were observed. The observed activity of 238 Np was used to calculate the amount of 238 Np produced during the irradiation via the 237 Np(n, γ) 238 Np reaction and an integral cross section of 342(11) mb was measured for the Godiva-IV neutron spectrum. Further, the 238 Np half-life has been measured with a result of 50.31(5) hours. The 237 Np(n, γ) 238 Np integral cross section measured in this work is in agreement with overlapping 1σ error bands to ENDF/B-VIII.0. However, the measured value is 3σ away from the calculated integral cross section using JENDL-5. This measurement offers a reliable benchmark for future 237 Np(n, γ) 238 Np cross section evaluations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Development of an MC&A toolbox for liquid-fueled molten salt reactors with online reprocessing (Final Report)

A critical barrier to the deployment of MSRs is the absence of a well-defined nuclear material control and accounting (MC&A) approach, a vital prerequisite to meet NRC licensing requirements as well as facilitating future international exports. Liquid-fueled MSR variants (especially those incorporating online refueling or reprocessing) present a unique set of challenges to traditional nuclear material control and accountancy. Unlike solid-fueled light-water reactors, traditional item-counting methods cannot be applied as an accountancy strategy. Rather, MC&A approaches to MSR variants (including both uranium and thorium fueled designs) are more analogous to bulk material handling facilities (e.g., enrichment and reprocessing); yet further complicating matters is the fact that fuel medium is also highly radioactive. Meanwhile, the space of MSRs covers a broad range of design parameters, including thermal and fast spectra designs; operation in actinide breeder or burner modes, choice of actinide fuel used (e.g., 235 U, 232 Th / 233 U, denatured 233 U, etc.), pool or loop-type configuration, and even different salt chemistry. Each of these design choices introduce significant challenges to MC&A approaches within MSR facilities. We propose to bridge this gap for liquid-fueled MSRs by developing a modular, component-based test framework for evaluating viable process monitoring and MC&A techniques specifically suited to liquid-fueled MSR system variants employing online refueling or reprocessing. This test platform will consist of a toolbox of independent process modules representing discrete physical units (such as the reactor core, off-gas processing, decay tanks, and actinide separation units), each with its own self-contained physics responsive to the input mass flow, along with appropriate measurement models that can be coupled to key flow points. These dynamic physical signatures thus afford the ability to test the viability and efficacy of potential accountancy techniques under the full range of reactor operating conditions. As process modules are connected via mass flows, the result is a reconfigurable, generic MSR mass flow model capable of serving as an MC&A test platform for a broad spectrum of possible MSR configurations. The resulting MSR MC&A toolbox will enable robust assessment of accountancy strategies for this unique facility type, including analysis of physical feedbacks arising both from depletion of the fuel over time as well as from potential off-normal events, including those introduced by equipment failures (e.g., a pump failure) as well as by malicious action (i.e., attempts to divert material). The proposed toolbox both addresses a critical needs area for the MPACT analysis toolkit while leveraging existing MPACT-sponsored tools, especially with respect to simulation of measurement and accountancy techniques for advanced fuel cycle facilities. Beyond enabling new analysis capabilities for MSR systems, the design of this toolbox will be to such to maximize compatibility with existing MPACT tools, such to enhance existing facility MC&A analysis capabilities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Lidar probing of the atmosphere: Some quantitative aspects

Lidar uses laser energy in radar fashion to observe atmospheric backscattering as a function of range. Because of the short optical and near-optical wavelengths used, very small particles and even the gaseous molecules cause significant scattering. This can complicate the evaluation of the observations by introducing attenuation along the path as a second unknown into the lidar equation. In many cases, however, the observations may be interpreted directly on a qualitative basis and show the distribution of particulate matter in clear air or enable the dimensions of visible cloud to be measured accurately. In other cases, particularly where additional data are available, quantitative solutions can provide useful information on remote targets such as tenuous smoke clouds or haze layers. Examples of such observations are given, illustrating the computational approach to the evaluation of the volume concentration of natural dust and haze layers in the lower atmosphere and the mass concentration of a smoke plume. In both cases lidar data are related to independently obtained data on the particulate concentrations involved.

Collis, R. T. H.↗

Advanced supersonic propulsion study, phase 2

A continuation of the NASA/P and WA study to evaluate various types of propulsion systems for advanced commercial supersonic transports has resulted in the identification of two very promising engine concepts. They are the Variable Stream Control Engine which provides independent temperature and velocity control for two coannular exhaust streams, and a derivative of this engine, a Variable Cycle Engine that employs a rear flow-inverter valve to vary the bypass ratio of the cycle. Both concepts are based on advanced engine technology and have the potential for significant improvements in jet noise, exhaust emissions and economic characteristics relative to current technology supersonic engines. Extensive research and technology programs are required in several critical areas that are unique to these supersonic Variable Cycle Engines to realize these potential improvements. Parametric cycle and integration studies of conventional and Variable Cycle Engines are reviewed, features of the two most promising engine concepts are described, and critical technology requirements and required programs are summarized.

Howlett, R. A.↗

Preliminary summary of the ETF conceptual studies

Power plant studies have shown the attractiveness of MHD topped steam power plants for baseload utility applications. To realize these advantages, a three-phase development program was initiated. In the first phase, the engineering data and experience were developed for the design and construction of a pilot plant, the Engineering Test Facility (ETF). Results of the ETF studies are reviewed. These three parallel independent studies were conducted by industrial teams led by the AVCO Everett Research Laboratory, the General Electric Corporation, and the Westinghouse Corporation. A preliminary analysis and the status of the critical evaluation of these results are presented.

Seikel, G. R.↗

Nonlinear interactions among solar acoustic modes

The rates at which nonlinear interactions transfer energy among the normal modes of a plane-parallel, stratified atmosphere are evaluated. It is shown that every p-mode in the 5-minute band is involved in many near-resonant triplets, and, as a consequence, the energy transfer rates are independent of the mode line widths. It is also found that nonlinear mode coupling cannot limit the growth of overstable p-modes, which favors the hypothesis that the sun's p-modes are stochastically excited by turbulent convection.

Kumar, Pawan↗

A mixed element for laminated plates and shells

Formulation and numerical evaluation of a simple shear-flexible four-noded quadrilateral laminated composite plate/shell finite-element is presented. The element developed is based on a generalized mixed variational principle with independently assumed displacement and laminate internal strain fields. For the latter, a layer-number-independent polynomial interpolation is utilized, together with a judicious selection of the in-plane (spanwise) distributions for the strain components. This was facilitated by the use of a set of bubble functions as additional kinematic degrees of freedom, which was shown to be crucial for eliminating the locking phenomenon. For dynamic applications, a simplified lumped mass matrix is employed. Finally, an extensive number of critical test cases are given to access the element's preformance and to illustrate its effectiveness in static as well as vibration problems for anisotropic laminated plates and shells.

Wilt, T. E.↗

The multiple-function multi-input/multi-output digital controller system for the AFW wind-tunnel model

A real time multiple-function digital controller system was developed for the Active Flexible Wing (AFW) Program. The digital controller system (DCS) allowed simultaneous execution of two control laws: flutter suppression and either roll trim or a rolling maneuver load control. The DCS operated within, but independently of, a slower host operating system environment, at regulated speeds up to 200 Hz. It also coordinated the acquisition, storage, and transfer of data for near real time controller performance evaluation and both open- and closed-loop plant estimation. It synchronized the operation of four different processing units, allowing flexibility in the number, form, functionality, and order of control laws, and variability in the selection of the sensors and actuators employed. Most importantly, the DCS allowed for the successful demonstration of active flutter suppression to conditions approximately 26 percent (in dynamic pressure) above the open-loop boundary in cases when the model was fixed in roll and up to 23 percent when it was free to roll. Aggressive roll maneuvers with load control were achieved above the flutter boundary. The purpose here is to present the development, validation, and wind tunnel testing of this multiple-function digital controller system.

Hoadley, Sherwood T.↗

The impact of initial and recurrent cockpit resource management training on attitudes

It is noted that previous analyses of the boomerang effect (attitude change as a result of training in the direction opposite of that intended) in aviation training environments were limited in that each subscale of the cockpit management attitudes questionnaire (CMAQ) was examined independently. This study develops and utilizes a new algorithm for grouping subjects such that a global attitude change score is derived from the attitude change scores on each CMAQ subscale. By evaluating global attitude change in addition to the more specific attitude change on each subscale, it might be possible to better comprehend the effects of crew resource management training on pilot attitudes.

Irwin, Cheryl M.↗

Wavelet Analysis of Turbulent Spots and Other Coherent Structures in Unsteady Transition

This is a secondary analysis of a portion of the Halstead data. The hot-film traces from an embedded stage of a low pressure turbine have been extensively analyzed by Halstead et al. In this project, wavelet analysis is used to develop the quantitative characterization of individual coherent structures in terms of size, amplitude, phase, convection speed, etc., as well as phase-averaged time scales. The purposes of the study are (1) to extract information about turbulent time scales for comparison with unsteady model results (e.g. k/epsilon). Phase-averaged maps of dominant time scales will be presented; and (2) to evaluate any differences between wake-induced and natural spots that might affect model performance. Preliminary results, subject to verification with data at higher frequency resolution, indicate that spot properties are independent of their phase relative to the wake footprints: therefore requirements for the physical content of models are kept relatively simple. Incidentally, we also observed that spot substructures can be traced over several stations; further study will examine their possible impact.

Lewalle, Jacques↗

Monte Carlo Simulation of Sudden Death Bearing Testing

Monte Carlo simulations combined with sudden death testing were used to compare resultant bearing lives to the calculated hearing life and the cumulative test time and calendar time relative to sequential and censored sequential testing. A total of 30 960 virtual 50-mm bore deep-groove ball bearings were evaluated in 33 different sudden death test configurations comprising 36, 72, and 144 bearings each. Variations in both life and Weibull slope were a function of the number of bearings failed independent of the test method used and not the total number of bearings tested. Variation in L10 life as a function of number of bearings failed were similar to variations in lift obtained from sequentially failed real bearings and from Monte Carlo (virtual) testing of entire populations. Reductions up to 40 percent in bearing test time and calendar time can be achieved by testing to failure or the L(sub 50) life and terminating all testing when the last of the predetermined bearing failures has occurred. Sudden death testing is not a more efficient method to reduce bearing test time or calendar time when compared to censored sequential testing.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗