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DOE OSTI2014

Dynamic Model Validation with Governor Deadband on the Eastern Interconnection

This report documents the efforts to perform dynamic model validation on the Eastern Interconnection (EI) by modeling governor deadband. An on-peak EI dynamic model is modified to represent governor deadband characteristics. Simulation results are compared with synchrophasor measurements collected by the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). The comparison shows that by modeling governor deadband the simulated frequency response can closely align with the actual system response.

dynamic↗

NASA NTRS1992

Mass loss in main-sequence A-type stars?

We present new observations of the H-alpha line profile for five main-sequence A-type stars, where very high SNRs were achieved. A search for weak asymmetries was carried out to detect a stellar wind, but the many telluric absorption lines in this range prevent us from taking the full benefit of the high SNRs. This situation was improved by modeling the telluric absorptions to remove them from the observed spectra, but the H-alpha profiles were nevertheless found to be quite symmetric. We calculated the profile of the H-alpha line for a grid of model atmospheres of an A-type star including a weak wind, in order to assess an upper limit on the mass loss rate. The asymmetry is found to be sensitive to the velocity law and to the turbulent velocity of the wind, but its first moment depends much less on them. The upper limits deduced on the mass loss rate are between 1 and 2 x 10 exp -10 solar mass/yr. An improvement up to a factor 10 could be anticipated if new observations could be secured from a much drier location, achieving similar SNRs.

Lanz, T.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗

DOE OSTI2014

A parametric modeling approach to measuring the gas masses of circumstellar disks

The disks that surround young stars are mostly composed of molecular gas, which is harder to detect and interpret than the accompanying dust. Disk mass measurements have therefore relied on large and uncertain extrapolations from the dust to the gas. We have developed a grid of models to study the dependencies of isotopologue CO line strengths on disk structure and temperature parameters and find that a combination of {sup 13}CO and C{sup 18}O observations provides a robust measure of the gas mass. We apply this technique to Submillimeter Array observations of nine circumstellar disks and published measurements of six well studied disks. We find evidence for selective photodissociation of C{sup 18}O and determine masses to within a factor of about three. The inferred masses for the nine disks in our survey range from 0.7 to 6 M {sub Jup}, and all are well below the extrapolation from the interstellar medium gas-to-dust ratio of 100. This is consistent with the low masses of planets found around such stars, and may be due to accretion or photoevaporation of a dust-poor upper atmosphere. However, the masses may be underestimated if there are more efficient CO depletion pathways than those known in molecular clouds and cold cores.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

A New Precision Measurement of the Small-scale Line-of-sight Power Spectrum of the Ly α Forest

We present a new measurement of the Lyα forest power spectrum at 1.8 < z < 3.4 using 74 Keck/HIRES and VLT/UVES high-resolution, high-signal-to-noise-ratio quasar spectra. We developed a custom pipeline to measure the power spectrum and its uncertainty, which fully accounts for finite resolution and noise and corrects for the bias induced by masking missing data, damped Lyα absorption systems, and metal absorption lines. Our measurement results in unprecedented precision on the small-scale modes $k\gt 0.02\,{\rm{s}}\,{\mathrm{km}}^{-1}$, inaccessible to previous SDSS/BOSS analyses. It is well known that these high-k modes are highly sensitive to the thermal state of the intergalactic medium, but contamination by narrow metal lines is a significant concern. We quantify the effect of metals on the small-scale power and find a modest effect on modes with $k\lt 0.1\,{\rm{s}}\,{\mathrm{km}}^{-1}$. As a result, by masking metals and restricting to $k\lt 0.1\,{\rm{s}}\,{\mathrm{km}}^{-1}$, their impact is completely mitigated. We present an end-to-end Bayesian forward-modeling framework whereby mock spectra with the same noise, resolution, and masking as our data are generated from Lyα forest simulations. These mock spectra are used to build a custom emulator, enabling us to interpolate between a sparse grid of models and perform Markov chain Monte Carlo fits. Our results agree well with BOSS on scales $k\lt 0.02\,{\rm{s}}\,{\mathrm{km}}^{-1}$, where the measurements overlap. The combination of the percent-level low-k precision of BOSS with our 5%–15% high-k measurements results in a powerful new data set for precisely constraining the thermal history of the intergalactic medium, cosmological parameters, and the nature of dark matter. Lastly, the power spectra and their covariance matrices are provided as electronic tables.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Grid generation research at OSU

In the last two years, effort was concentrated on: (1) surface modeling; (2) surface grid generation; and (3) 3-D flow space grid generation. The surface modeling shares the same objectives as the surface modeling in computer aided design (CAD), so software available in CAD can in principle be used for solid modeling. Unfortunately, however, the CAD software cannot be easily used in practice for grid generation purposes, because they are not designed to provide appropriate data base for grid generation. Therefore, we started developing a generalized surface modeling software from scratch, that provides the data base for the surface grid generation. Generating surface grid is an important step in generating a 3-D space for flow space. To generate a surface grid on a given surface representation, we developed a unique algorithm that works on any non-smooth surfaces. Once the surface grid is generated, a 3-D space can be generated. For this purpose, we also developed a new algorithm, which is a hybrid of the hyperbolic and the elliptic grid generation methods. With this hybrid method, orthogonality of the grid near the solid boundary can be easily achieved without introducing empirical fudge factors. Work to develop 2-D and 3-D grids for turbomachinery blade geometries was performed, and as an extension of this research we are planning to develop an adaptive grid procedure with an interactive grid environment.

Nakamura, S.↗

DOE OSTI2015

LES of Diesel and Gasoline Sprays with Validation against X-Ray Radiography Data

This paper focuses on detailed numerical simulations of direct injection diesel and gasoline sprays from production grade, multi-hole injectors. In a dual-fuel engine the direct injection of both the fuels can facilitate appropriate mixture preparation prior to ignition and combustion. Diesel and gasoline sprays were simulated using high-fidelity Large Eddy Simulations (LES) with the dynamic structure sub-grid scale model. Numerical predictions of liquid penetration, fuel density distribution as well as transverse integrated mass (TIM) at different axial locations versus time were compared against x-ray radiography data obtained from Argonne National Laboratory. A necessary, but often overlooked, criterion of grid-convergence is ensured by using Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) for both diesel and gasoline. Nine different realizations were performed and the effects of random seeds on spray behavior were investigated. Additional parametric studies under different ambient and injection conditions were performed to study their influence on global and local flow structures for gasoline sprays. It is concluded that LES can generally well capture all experimental trends and comes close to matching the x-ray data. Discrepancies between experimental and simulation results can be correlated to uncertainties in boundary and initial conditions such as rate of injection and spray and turbulent dispersion sub-model constants.

Wang, Zihan↗

DOE OSTI2022

tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States

The purpose of the Total ELectricity Load (tell) model is to generate 21st century profiles of hourly electricity load (demand) across the Conterminous United States (CONUS). tell loads reflect the impact of climate and socioeconomic change at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for input to an electricity grid operations model. tell uses machine learning to develop profiles that are driven by projections of climate/meteorology and population. tell also harmonizes its results with United States (U.S.) state-level, annual projections from a national- to global-scale energy-economy model. This model accounts for a wide range of other factors affecting electricity demand, including technology change in the building sector, energy prices, and demand elasticities, which stems from model coupling with the U.S. version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA). tell was developed as part of the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. IM3 explores the vulnerability and resilience of interacting energy, water, land, and urban systems in response to compound stressors, such as climate trends, extreme events, population, urbanization, energy system transitions, and technology change

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2010

Direct CFD Predictions of Low Frequency Sounds Generated by a Helicopter Main Rotor

The use of CFD to directly predict helicopter main rotor noise is shown to be quite promising as an alternative mean for low frequency source noise evaluation. Results using existing state-of-the-art grid structures and finite-difference schemes demonstrated that small perturbation pressures, associated with acoustics radiation, can be extracted with some degree of fidelity. Accuracy of the predictions are demonstrated via comparing to predictions from conventional acoustic analogy-based models, and with measurements obtained from wind tunnel and flight tests for the MD-902 helicopter at several operating conditions. Findings show that the direct CFD approach is quite successfully in yielding low frequency results due to thickness and steady loading noise mechanisms. Mid-to-high frequency contents, due to blade-vortex interactions, are not predicted due to CFD modeling and grid constraints.

Sim, Ben W.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Mesa isochrones and stellar tracks (mist). I. Solar-scaled models

This is the first of a series of papers presenting the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST) project, a new comprehensive set of stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones computed using MESA, a state-of-the-art open-source 1D stellar evolution package. In this work, we present models with solar-scaled abundance ratios covering a wide range of ages (5⩽log(Age) [year]⩽10.3), masses (0.1⩽M/M{sub ⊙}⩽300), and metallicities (−2.0⩽[Z/H]⩽0.5). The models are self-consistently and continuously evolved from the pre-main sequence (PMS) to the end of hydrogen burning, the white dwarf cooling sequence, or the end of carbon burning, depending on the initial mass. We also provide a grid of models evolved from the PMS to the end of core helium burning for −4.0⩽[Z/H]<−2.0. We showcase extensive comparisons with observational constraints as well as with some of the most widely used existing models in the literature. The evolutionary tracks and isochrones can be downloaded from the project website at http://waps.cfa.harvard.edu/MIST/.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Multiphase Large Eddy Simulation of a Pulsed Sieve-Plate Extraction Column - 18125

Presented here is research resulting from a framework of single-phase and multiphase modelling trials. These are intended to accurately simulate the internal flow phenomena arising in pulsed sieve-plate extraction columns representative of those found in industry. Three-dimensional unsteady flow calculations using large eddy simulation coupled with dynamic sub-grid scale modelling have been used to capture the transient effects of sinusoidal flow conditions using the open source CFD code OpenFOAM{sup R}. Multiphase interface interactions are modelled using the volume of fluid method with appropriate heavy and light phase fluidic properties capturing surface tension, density and viscous effects. The system studied consists of a 150 mm diameter column with two perforated plates with a fractional free area of 25 %, operational under 1 Hz pulsing frequency at a 50 mm amplitude and plate spacing of 300 mm. The materials simulated include water (single-phase) and 3 M nitric acid and dodecane / tributyl phosphate mixture at 30 vol% (multiphase). Results are compared with appropriate correlations from literature. The dispersive mixing efficiency of the system was also evaluated via a mixing index value which allows quantification of the ratio of rotational and irrotational flow components. This study has found that the predictive methods employed are effective at capturing the different scales of turbulence present within pulsed sieve-plate extraction columns, and its influence on their operation. As such, the work highlights the ability of large eddy simulation-based modelling to predict the complex flows in such column geometries. Furthermore, the techniques employed provide valuable insight into the hydrodynamic flow characteristics and mixing mechanisms arising within pulsed sieve-plate extraction columns. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

NREL Capabilities for TMCES

This is a panel presentation covering NREL's capabilities in the thermal-mechanical energy storage space, including ARIES, component R&D, and modeling tools and datasets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations

Knowledge about long-term changes in climate extremes is vital to better understand multidecadal climate variability and long-term changes and to place today's extreme events in a historical context. While global changes in temperature and precipitation extremes since the midtwentieth century are well studied, knowledge about century-scale changes is limited. This paper analyses a range of largely independent observations-based data sets covering 1901–2010 for long-term changes and interannual variability in daily scale temperature and precipitation extremes. We compare across data sets for consistency to ascertain our confidence in century-scale changes in extremes. We find consistent warming trends in temperature extremes globally and in most land areas over the past century. For precipitation extremes we find global tendencies toward more intense rainfall throughout much of the twentieth century; however, local changes are spatially more variable. While global time series of the different data sets agree well after about 1950, they often show different changes during the first half of the twentieth century. In regions with good observational coverage, gridded observations and reanalyses agree well throughout the entire past century. Finally, simulations with an atmospheric model suggest that ocean temperatures and sea ice may explain up to about 50% of interannual variability in the global average of temperature extremes, and about 15% in the global average of moderate precipitation extremes, but local correlations are mostly significant only in low latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Co-Simulation Framework for Steady-State Analyses of Multiple Droop-based MTdc Grids in Continental-Scale Systems

The growing scale and complexity of planning continental hybrid ac and multi-terminal dc (MTdc) systems require scalable steady-state modeling and analysis approaches not currently available in commercial tools. This paper presents a comprehensive multi-fidelity model-conversion framework that enables the efficient transition of MTdc grid models from production cost modeling (PCM) and approximated ac power flow to detailed ac–MTdc power flow for large-scale planning studies. The core of this framework is a scalable co-simulation approach that, for the first time, enables power flow analysis in continental-scale ac–MTdc systems. It seamlessly couples commercial ac solvers with a detailed MTdc grid model that incorporates droop-based control and current-limiting strategies of multiple meshed MTdc grids. Leveraging this capability, an evaluation framework to systematically assess and compare different MTdc power redispatch strategies under ac and dc contingencies is introduced. The proposed framework and algorithm are evaluated using a combined Western and Eastern Interconnection system with 11 MTdc grids of various sizes, showing a coherent transition from PCM to detailed ac–MTdc power flow and improved system performance in voltage regulation and line overload mitigation following typical contingencies.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

An unstructured C-grid type variational formulation for the sea ice dynamics

Historically, B-grid formulations of sea ice dynamics have been dominant because they have matched the grid type used by ocean models. The reason for the grid match is simple – it facilitates penetration of the curl of ice-ocean stress into the deep ocean with minimal numerical diffusivity because sea ice and ocean velocity are co-located. In recent years, as ocean models have increasingly progressed to C-grids, sea ice models have followed suit on quadrilateral meshes, but the implementation of an unstructured C-grid sea ice models is new. We present an unstructured C-grid discretization of the Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) rheology, where the velocity unknowns are discretized at the edges of the mesh cells with n-sides, where typically n is greater than or equal to four, rather than at the vertices, as in the B-grid. Our framework of choice is the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) within E3SM, the climate model of the U.S. Department of Energy, although our approach is general and could be applied to other models as well. While MPAS-Seaice is currently defined on a B-grid, MPAS-Ocean runs on a C-grid, hence interpolation operators are heavily used when coupled simulations are performed. In this work, we describe a mathematical formulation to transition the dynamics of MPAS-Seaice to a C-grid, in order to ultimately facilitate the coupling with MPAS-Ocean and reduce numerical errors associated with this communication. Numerical results are reported to highlight the features of the method.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate studies - Models I and II

Climate modeling based on numerical solution of the fundamental equations for atmospheric structure and motion permits the explicit modeling of physical processes in the climate system and the natural treatment of interactions and feedbacks among parts of the system. The main difficulty concerning this approach is related to the computational requirements. The present investigation is concerned with the development of a grid-point model which is programmed so that both horizontal and vertical resolutions can easily be changed. Attention is given to a description of Model I, the performance of sensitivity experiments by varying parameters, the definition of an improved Model II, and a study of the dependence of climate simulation on resolution with Model II. It is shown that the major features of global climate can be simulated reasonably well with a horizontal resolution as coarse as 1000 km. Such a resolution allows the possibility of long-range climate studies with moderate computer resources.

Russel, G.↗

DOE OSTI2014

A high-performance workflow system for subsurface simulation

Subsurface modeling applications typically neglect uncertainty in the conceptual models, past or future scenarios, and attribute most or all uncertainty to errors in model parameters. In this contribution, uncertainty in technetium-99 transport in a heterogeneous, deep vadose zone is explored with respect to the conceptual model using a next generation user environment called Akuna. Akuna provides a range of tools to manage environmental modeling projects, from managing simulation data to visualizing results from high-performance computational simulators. Core toolsets accessible through the user interface include model setup, grid generation, parameter estimation, and uncertainty quantification. The BC Cribs site at Hanford in southeastern Washington State is used to demonstrate Akuna capabilities. At the BC Cribs site, conceptualization of the system is highly uncertain because only sparse information is available for the geologic conceptual model, the physical and chemical properties of the sediments, and the history of waste disposal operations. Using the Akuna toolset to perform an analysis of conservative solute transport, significant prediction uncertainty in simulated concentrations is demonstrated by conceptual model variation. This demonstrates that conceptual model uncertainty is an important consideration in sparse data environments such as BC Cribs. It is also demonstrated that Akuna and the underlying toolset provides an integrated modeling environment that streamlines model setup, parameter optimization, and uncertainty analyses for high-performance computing applications.

Akuna↗

NASA NTRS2014

Coupled Fluid-Structure Interaction Analysis of Solid Rocket Motor with Flexible Inhibitors

Flexible inhibitors are generally used in solid rocket motors (SRMs) as a means to control the burning of propellant. Vortices generated by the flow of propellant around the flexible inhibitors have been identified as a driving source of instabilities that can lead to thrust oscillations in launch vehicles. Potential coupling between the SRM thrust oscillations and structural vibration modes is an important risk factor in launch vehicle design. As a means to predict and better understand these phenomena, a multidisciplinary simulation capability that couples the NASA production CFD code, Loci/CHEM, with CFDRC's structural finite element code, CoBi, has been developed. This capability is crucial to the development of NASA's new space launch system (SLS). This paper summarizes the efforts in applying the coupled software to demonstrate and investigate fluid-structure interaction (FSI) phenomena between pressure waves and flexible inhibitors inside reusable solid rocket motors (RSRMs). The features of the fluid and structural solvers are described in detail, and the coupling methodology and interfacial continuity requirements are then presented in a general Eulerian-Lagrangian framework. The simulations presented herein utilize production level CFD with hybrid RANS/LES turbulence modeling and grid resolution in excess of 80 million cells. The fluid domain in the SRM is discretized using a general mixed polyhedral unstructured mesh, while full 3D shell elements are utilized in the structural domain for the flexible inhibitors. Verifications against analytical solutions for a structural model under a steady uniform pressure condition and under dynamic modal analysis show excellent agreement in terms of displacement distribution and eigenmode frequencies. The preliminary coupled results indicate that due to acoustic coupling, the dynamics of one of the more flexible inhibitors shift from its first modal frequency to the first acoustic frequency of the solid rocket motor. This insight could have profound implications for SRM and flexible inhibitor designs for current and future launch vehicles including SLS.

Yang, H. Q.↗