SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “geologic model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 991 records · Page 55

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Three‐Dimensional Permeability Inversion Using Convolutional Neural Networks and Positron Emission Tomography

Abstract Quantification of heterogeneous multiscale permeability in geologic porous media is key for understanding and predicting flow and transport processes in the subsurface. Recent utilization of in situ imaging, specifically positron emission tomography (PET), enables the measurement of three‐dimensional (3‐D) time‐lapse radiotracer solute transport in geologic media. However, accurate and computationally efficient characterization of the permeability distribution that controls the solute transport process remains challenging. Leveraging the relationship between local permeability variation and solute advection behavior, an encoder‐decoder based convolutional neural network (CNN) is implemented as a permeability inversion scheme using a single PET scan of a radiotracer pulse injection experiment as input. The CNN can accurately capture the 3‐D spatial correlation between the permeability and the radiotracer solute arrival time difference maps in geologic cores. We first test the inversion accuracy using synthetic test datasets and then test the accuracy on a suite of experimental PET imaging datasets acquired on four different geologic cores. The network‐predicted permeability maps from the geologic cores are used to parameterize forward numerical models that are directly compared with the experimental PET imaging data. The results indicate that a single trained network can generate robust 3‐D permeability inversion maps in seconds. Numerical models parameterized with these permeability maps closely capture the experimentally observed solute arrival time behavior. This work provides an unprecedented approach for efficiently characterizing multiscale permeability heterogeneity in complex geologic samples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F1 Final Report

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F is a comparison of models and methods for post-closure performance assessment (PA) of a deep geologic repository for radioactive waste. The general aims of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for PA and to stimulate additional research and development in PA methodologies. The task objectives are to motivate development of PA modelling skills and capabilities, to examine the influence of model choices on calculated repository performance, and to compare the uncertainties introduced by model choices to other sources of uncertainty. Task F involves no actual experiment or site. It is a PA modelling exercise that requires the conceptual development of hypothetical repository designs and geologic settings. Because three of the teams were interested in salt and the rest of the teams were interested in crystalline rock, Task F was split into two branches: Task F1 for crystalline rock and Task F2 for salt. This report is for Task F1, crystalline rock. Teams from seven countries (Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, and United States) participated in Task F1. The teams worked together to define the features, events, and processes of the reference case repository and established a set of performance measures. In addition, they defined a set of benchmark problems designed to test and compare modelling capabilities for fracture flow and transport at different scales. The repository design and benchmark problems are documented in a Task Specification that evolved over time as the group honed the specifications. The benchmark problems verified that each team can aptly model flow and transport in fractured media in 1-, 2-, and 3-dimensions. Two general approaches were used for the 3-dimensional benchmarks: discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM). DFN modelling involves explicit meshing of each fracture while ECPM modelling aims to capture the effective porosity and directional permeability of each cell in a space-filling mesh as affected by intersecting fractures. In some models, a combination of the two is used, i.e., DFN for large known fractures and ECPM for the rest of the domain. Transport is solved by using either the advection-dispersion equation or particle tracking. Although some variation is observed among model breakthrough curves in the benchmark problems, there is strong agreement in breakthrough behaviour up to at least the 75 th percentile for all benchmarks. At the 90 th percentile, breakthrough results show larger differences, suggesting several models retain substantially higher fractions of tracer in regions of slower moving water. In addition to the flow and transport benchmarks, several teams completed the source term benchmark, verifying capabilities for modelling radionuclide decay and ingrowth, waste package breach, instant release fractions, fuel matrix degradation rates, and radionuclide solubility limitations. The reference case is conceptualized as a generic spent fuel repository at a depth of 450 m in fractured crystalline rock. The repository has 50 parallel backfilled drifts, each with 50 deposition holes 6 m apart. Each deposition hole contains a 4-PWR waste package and bentonite buffer. The rock domain is 5 km in length, 2 km in width, and 1 km in depth. It has 6 deterministic fractured deformation zones and a multitude of stochastic fractures. Teams generally used the ECPM approach for the entire rock or a hybrid approach in which the deterministic fracture zones are modelled with a DFN and the rest of the rock is modelled by ECPM. Of the reference case problems specified, only the results of the initial reference case problem are compared in this report. The initial problem focuses on transport from the deposition holes to the surface, i.e., it neglects waste package performance. Tracers are released at all waste package locations at time zero and tracked for their releases to the near field and ground surface. The water fluxes calculated at the ground surface entry and exit regions of the domain are similar for all models except for two that have considerably lower fluxes. For tracer transport, large differences are observed among models in the magnitude of tracer transported. Much of the difference appears to be due to how the repository is implemented and hence the different degrees of repository simplification. Models that exclude the drifts, buffer, and backfill from the domain tend to show greater release of tracers and radionuclides from the repository. The initial study presented here indicates that major differences in modelling important processes within the repository (e.g., diffusion through buffer and backfill) can produce broadly different release and transport results, especially when those processes are excluded. Even for the models that included all specified features, events, and processes, the results show significant differences and demonstrate the importance of examining multiple modelling approaches in performance assessment. The differences in results observed in this study are expected to motivate teams to either increase complexity in future versions of the reference case models or to improve methods to account for the effects of simplified features and processes. Either way, future improvements in these models are expected to produce results that more closely agree.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Impact of Three-Phase Relative Permeability and Hysteresis Models on Forecasts of Storage Associated With CO 2 -EOR

Geological CO 2 sequestration in conjunction with enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) includes complex multiphase flow processes compared to CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Two of the most critical factors affecting multiphase flow in CO 2 -EOR are three-phase relative permeability and associated hysteresis, both of which are difficult to measure and are usually represented by numerical interpolation models. The purpose of this research is to improve understanding of (1) the relative impacts of different three-phase relative permeability models and hysteresis models on CO 2 trapping mechanisms, and (2) uncertainty associated with these two factors. Four different three-phase relative permeability models and three hysteresis models were applied to simulations of an active CO 2 -EOR site, the SACROC unit located in western Texas. To eliminate potential bias of deterministic parameters, we utilized a sequential Gaussian simulation technique to generate 50 realizations to describe heterogeneity of porosity and permeability, based on data obtained from well logs and seismic survey. Simulation results of forecasted CO 2 storage suggested that (1) the choice of three-phase relative permeability model and hysteresis model led to noticeable impacts on forecasted CO 2 sequestration capacity; (2) impacts of three-phase relative permeability models and hysteresis models on CO 2 trapping are small during the CO 2 -EOR injection period, and increase during the post-EOR CO 2 injection period; (3) the specific choice of hysteresis model is more important relative to the choice of three-phase relative permeability model; and (4) using the recommended three-phase WAG (Water-Alternating-Gas) hysteresis model may increase the impact of three-phase relative permeability models and uncertainty due to heterogeneity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1981

The excavation stage of basin formation - A qualitative model

One of the most complex problems in planetary geology and geophysics is the determination of the nature of the impact cratering processes at scales of tens to thousands of kilometers that produce the complex morphological structures of multiring basins. The cratering process is frequently considered to be divided into three stages, including a short high-pressure stage of initial contact between the projectile and the planetary crust, a longer excavation or cratering flow stage culminating in the formation of a transient crater, and a still longer modification stage during which the transient crater is modified into the observed final geologic form. The transient crater may be considered as the initial boundary condition of the modification stage. In the present investigation, the nature of the transient crater is indicated by the cratering flow field determined from numerical simulations of the excavation stage. Attention is given to empirical and theoretical scaling.

Croft, S. K.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Modeling Background Radiation Using Geochemical Data

Aerial gamma ray surveys have many applications in geology and science in general, such as locating mining prospects, defining radioactive plumes, and detecting nuclear weapons. Unfortunately there is currently no simple way to separate the natural gamma radiation of soil and rocks from that of contaminants such as radioactive plumes. This project used geochemical data (uranium, potassium and thorium concentrations) collected from national databases, private companies, and the NURE (National Uranium Resource Evaluation) Survey, to create forward models of exposure rates measured by aerial gamma ray surveys. We developed these techniques using an area in north central Arizona known as the Navajo Mines area, chosen for its optimal conditions for aerial gamma ray surveys and readily available survey data. Models based on geochemical analyses from databases were not found to be successful, in part due to lack of data for some units. Models based on NURE data sorted by geologic unit were successful at replicating the aerial gamma ray survey, though units with Uranium mineralization proved difficult. ASTER visualizations were effectively used to create subunits of similar exposure rate within the Chinle Formation which contains multiple lithologies. For alluvial units, models based on drainage basin were attempted with success. With these models we are developing techniques to estimate the natural radiation generated by the rocks and soils of an area, making aerial ray surveys more effective.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Performance Assessment of a Generic Nuclear Waste Repository in Shale - 18392

A performance assessment (PA) is an important component of a comprehensive safety analysis for a nuclear waste repository. In a PA, probabilistic simulations of the total repository system are performed, and results are evaluated against performance metrics. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses help prioritize additional research and model development. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has been developing a state of the art PA simulation software tool-kit, Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework, that couples increasingly higher fidelity models of subsystem processes into total system PA simulations. Over the past several years, PAs of generic repositories in three geologic media (salt, shale, and crystalline rock) have demonstrated ongoing developments in capability. The current PA of a nuclear waste repository in a generic shale formation showcases GDSA Framework, including capabilities in domain discretization (Cubit), multi-physics simulations (PFLOTRAN), uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (Dakota), and visualization (Paraview). The generic shale reference case considers the disposal of 22,000 metric tons heavy metal of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in a generic shale formation. PA simulations account for the thermal load and radionuclide inventory of the waste form, components of the engineered barrier system including waste package and buffer, and components of the natural barrier system including the host rock shale and underlying and overlying stratigraphic units. Two repository layouts are considered, one for emplacement of waste packages containing 12 pressurized water reactor (PWR) assemblies, and one for 4-PWR waste package emplacement. Model domains are half-symmetry and contain between 7 and 22 million grid cells. Grid refinement captures the detail of individual waste packages, emplacement drifts, access drifts, and shafts. Simulations are run in a high-performance computing (HPC) environment on 512 or 2048 processes. The governing equations describing coupled heat and fluid flow and reactive transport are solved with PFLOTRAN, an open-source, massively parallel multiphase flow and reactive transport code. Additional simulated processes include waste package degradation; waste form dissolution; radioactive decay and ingrowth in aqueous, solid, and adsorbed phases; and a simple biosphere based on a pumping well. Simulations are run to 106 y; dose and radionuclide concentrations are observed within aquifers at a point approximately 5 km downgradient of the repository. Dakota is used to sample likely ranges of input parameters including waste form and waste package degradation rates and properties of engineered and natural materials to quantify uncertainty in predicted concentrations and sensitivity to input parameters. Given the assumptions of the reference case, results of 12-PWR and 4-PWR simulations are very similar. Dose at the pumping well 5-km downgradient of the repository does not exceed 10-9 Sv/y. I-129 is the largest contributor to dose. The dose due to Cl-36, the next largest contributor, is orders of magnitude smaller. At the pumping well, the concentration of I-129 5-km downgradient does not exceed 10-14 mol/L. Rank correlation coefficients indicate that the maximum concentration of I-129 within the aquifer is sensitive to shale (repository host rock) porosity and aquifer permeability. These results affirm that HPC-capable codes can be used to simulate important multi-physics couplings directly in a total system performance assessment of a geologic repository, and can be used in prioritization of future research and model development. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

International Collaboration on Spent Fuel Disposition in Crystalline Media: FY17 Progress Report

Active participation in international R&D is crucial for achieving the Spent Fuel Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) long-term goals of conducting “experiments to fill data needs and confirm advanced modeling approaches” and of having a “robust modeling and experimental basis for evaluation of multiple disposal system options” (by 2020). DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has developed a strategic plan to advance cooperation with international partners. The international collaboration on the evaluation of crystalline disposal media at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in FY17 focused on the collaboration through the Development of Coupled Models and their Validation against Experiments (DECOVALEX-2019) project. The DECOVALEX project is an international research and model comparison collaboration, initiated in 1992, for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. SNL has been participating in three tasks of the DECOVALEX project: Task A. Modeling gas injection experiments (ENGINEER), Task C. Modeling groundwater recovery experiment in tunnel (GREET), and Task F. Fluid inclusion and movement in the tight rock (FINITO).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Final Report on Update and Enhancement of Shale Gas Outlooks

The study performed by an interdisciplinary team of the Bureau of Economic Geology (Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin) presents an improved production outlook assessments for the major U.S. shale gas plays, including the Barnett, Fayetteville, Haynesville, and Marcellus. The team of geoscientists, engineers, statisticians, and economists has reviewed and analyzed developments in the understanding of geologic, production-technology, and economic factors and has developed a model to run various scenarios with respect to energy prices, costs, technological advances, changes in geologic attributes, and physical and regulatory constraints.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Vadose and Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Package Report for the Active Trenches of the Low-Level Burial Grounds, Hanford Site, Washington

This model package report (MPR) documents the development of the integrated vadose and saturated zone flow and transport model developed for the performance assessment of Trenches 31 and 34 in the low-level burial grounds (LLBGs). This modeling capability is intended for use in addressing the analysis requirements outlined in DOE O 435.1, Chg 1, Radioactive Waste Management1. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed disposal decisions pertinent to Trenches 31 and 34. The purpose of the MPR is to document the development of the three-dimensional numerical vadose zone and saturated flow and transport model test case and evaluate its adequacy to support the LLBG performance assessment. The purpose is not to present results for DOE 435.1 decision making. The use of the model to perform base case and sensitivity analysis for the LLBG performance assessment, including inputs and results, is documented separately in subsequent environmental calculation files. This report discusses the development and translation of the conceptual model for flow and contaminant transport into the LLBG performance assessment three-dimensional numerical flow and transport model evaluated using the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP©) simulator. The development of representative geologic framework is described along with the implementation of waste release models used to represent contaminant release from waste disposed in the trenches. The report also provides the technical basis for specific model parameters and boundary conditions, along with description of modeling assumptions. This MPR includes certain calculations that are necessary to demonstrate the soundness of the model. Results provided by the model include vadose zone and saturated zone flow fields, and estimates of the possible future concentration in groundwater of technetium-99 and iodine-129 as example test cases. As an evaluation of the test cases, the model estimates of current vadose conditions are compared to available and analogous field and laboratory data, and compared to the results from the original performance assessment model (WHC-EP-0645, Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds 2 ). The features, events, and processes applicable to vadose zone and saturated zone flow and transport model are identified, and representative initial estimates for various parameters are documented. Note that the parameter estimates presented in this MPR are for illustration purposes, and may or may not reflect values selected for eventual performance assessment. Several key topical discussions (i.e., basis for recharge estimates, basis for vadose zone modeling, basis for saturated zone model development, and calibration) are included, which serve as the groundwork for confidence building for the groundwater pathway modeling and results. Numerical simulation results based on an example test case are included to illustrate the use of the combined saturated-unsaturated model in performance assessment calculations. Sensitivity and uncertainty results are not included in this MPR. Those results will be included in future environmental calculation files. The inclusion of the trapezoidal trench geometry and construction details in the finite difference grid introduces some gross simplifications regarding the trench and liner systems. The model test case presented in this MPR includes the assumption that the trench liner system does not affect flow through or around the trenches after the liner system is assumed to fail. This MPR also includes results of other test cases that involve alternate assumptions about how to incorporate the hydraulic effects of the trenches into the vadose zone of the model. These alternate cases do not attempt to account for the presence of the liner system after its assumed failure either. None of these cases is considered to be the base case at this time. Analysis and alternate cases that attempt to account for the presence of the liner system in greater detail, and its effect on flow through and around it, are to be documented in subsequent environmental calculation files. Depending on the results of those analyses and alternate cases, the eventual base case may involve more detailed inclusion of the effects of the liner system hydraulics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

On the impact of temperatures up to 200°C in clay repositories with bentonite engineer barrier systems: A study with coupled thermal, hydrological, chemical, and mechanical modeling

One of the most important design variables for a geological nuclear waste repository is the temperature limit up to which the engineered barrier system (EBS) and the natural geologic environment can be exposed. Up to now, almost all design concepts that involve bentonite-backfilled emplacement tunnels have chosen a maximum allowable temperature of about 100°C. Such a choice is largely based on the consideration that in clay-based materials illitization and the associated mechanical changes in the bentonite (and perhaps the clay host rock) could affect the barrier attributes of the EBS. However, existing experimental and modeling studies on the occurrence of illitization and related performance impacts are not conclusive, in part because the relevant couplings between the thermal, hydrological, chemical, and mechanical (THMC) processes have not been fully represented in the models. This work presents a fully coupled THMC simulation of a nuclear waste repository in a clay formation with a bentonite-backfilled EBS for 1000 years. Two scenarios were simulated for comparison: a case in which the temperature in the bentonite near the waste canister can reach about 200°C and a case in which the temperature in the bentonite near the waste canister peaks at about 100°C. The model simulations demonstrate some degree of illitization in both the bentonite buffer and the surrounding clay formation. Other chemical alterations include the dissolution of K-feldspar and calcite, and precipitation of quartz, chlorite, and kaolinite. In general, illitization in the bentonite and the clay formation is enhanced at higher temperature. However, the quantity of illitization is affected by many chemical factors and therefore varies a great deal. The most important chemical factors are the concentration of K in the pore water as well as the abundance and dissolution rate of K-feldspar; less important ones are the concentration of sodium and the quartz precipitation rate. In our modeling scenarios, the calculated decrease in smectite volume fraction in bentonite ranges from 1 to 8% of the initial volume fraction of smectite in the 100°C scenario and 1–27% in the 200°C scenario. Chemical changes in the 200°C scenario could also lead to a reduction in swelling stress up to 15–18% whereas those in the 100°C scenario result in about 14–15% reduction in swelling stress for the base case scenario. Model results also show that the 200°C scenario results in a much higher total stress than the 100°C scenario, mostly due to thermal pressurization. While cautions should be taken regarding the model results due to some limitations in the models, the modeling work is illustrative in light of the relative importance of different processes occurring in EBS bentonite and clay formation at higher than 100°C conditions, and could be of greater use when site specific data are available.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Well–based monitoring of CO 2 geological sequestration operations in saline aquifers: Critical insights into key questions

Geological carbon sequestration in saline aquifers is one of the most promising strategies to help mitigate emissions of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Significant challenges in ensuring the security of the sequestration process rest in the evolution and expansion of the CO 2 plume in the subsurface. The ability to track the movement of the injected CO 2 poses another challenge. Critical questions related to the integrity of the sequestration operations in saline aquifers relate to plume characteristics that can we monitor using well-based variables. We addressed this and related questions using an integrated modeling framework through a numerical investigation of carbon sequestration in saline aquifers during long-term and post-injection periods. This modeling paradigm incorporates the effect of structural, geological, and petrophysical characteristics. That way, we can account for critical physicochemical processes, rock-fluid interactions, and lithology dependencies. The well fluid variables investigated include fluid composition, pH, fluid density, and ion activity. We learned that fluid property analytics and diagnostics can be powerful tools to estimate the movement of CO 2 and its storage in different trapping mechanisms. These analytics can help optimize operational aspects and simplify reservoir-scale models while still reflecting the complex nature of the CO 2 interactions underground and offering insights into plume evolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Resource Analysis for Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study in East Texas

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory, Eastman Chemical, Turbine Air Systems, and the Electric Power Research Institute are evaluating the feasibility of using geothermal heat to improve the efficiency of natural gas power plants. The area of interest is the Eastman Chemical plant in Longview, Texas, which is on the northwestern margin of the Sabine Uplift. The study is focused on determining the potential for a geothermal reservoir within a 10 km radius of the site as defined by data from existing geological studies and cross-sections within the depths of 2,100 to 3,400 meters. Wells within a 20 km radius are included for broader geological comparison to determine the heat flow, temperature-at-depth, and oil and gas field porosity and permeability. The geothermal reservoir model is based on the multiple formation top data sources, published literature data, and well log interpretations within the 10 km radius. Area thickness estimates, reservoir extent bounding parameters, potential flow rates, and temperatures are combined to calculate a reservoir productivity index and develop a reservoir production model. Historical fluid volumes production data are used as an independent check for the reservoir productivity index and production model results. The reservoir parameters calculated here are being used for the surface engineering model to determine the economic viability of using geothermal fluids for a deep direct use application at this site. The data files are submitted as separate workbooks in 'content model' format, including: Well Fluid Production, Heat Flow, and Geologic Reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Report to the National Park Service for Permit LAKE-2014-SCI-002

The overall purpose of the study is to determine how to use existing geologic data to predict gamma-ray background levels as measured during aerial radiological surveys. Aerial radiological surveys have typically been for resource exploration purposes but are now also used for homeland security purposes and nuclear disaster assessment as well as determining the depth of snowpack. Foreknowledge of the background measured during aerial radiological survey will be valuable for all the above applications. The gamma-ray background comes from the rocks and soil within the first 30 cm of the earth’s surface in the area where the survey is being made. The background should therefore be predictable based on an understanding of the distribution and geochemistry of the rocks on the surface. We are using a combination of geologic maps, remote sensing imagery and geochemical data from existing databases and the scientific literature to develop a method for predicting gamma-ray backgrounds. As part of this project we have an opportunity to ground truth our technique along a survey calibration line near Lake Mojave that is used by the Remote Sensing Lab (RSL) of National Security Technologies, LLC (NSTec). RSL makes aerial measurements along this line on a regular basis, so the aerial background in the area is well known. By making ground-based measurements of the gamma-ray background and detailed observations of the geology of the ground surface as well as local topography we will have the data we need to make corrections to the models we build based on the remote sensing and geologic data. Our project involves collaborators from the Airborne Geophysics Section of the Geological Survey of Canada as well as from NSTec’s RSL. Findings

Burnley, Pamela C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Martian tension fractures and the formation of grabens and collapse features at Valles Marineris

Simple models of the Martian crust are summarized that predict extensional deformation style on the basis of depth, material friction and strength, and hydraulic conditions appropriate to the planet. These models indicate that tension fractures may be common features on Mars, given adequate differential stress conditions. Examples of tension fractures on Mars inferred from morphological criteria are examined based on the probable geologic conditions in which they formed and on model constraints. It is proposed that the grabens and collapse features of Valles Marineris are controlled by tension fractures in intact basement rocks that lie below impact ejecta.

Tanaka, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Coronado National Memorial Disasters: Investigating Geohazards & Slope Failure Susceptibility Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

The Coronado National Memorial (CORO), located in Hereford, Arizona, is situated along the United States' southern border, featuring recently established but still incomplete border barrier roads. This landscape is inherently prone to geohazards, and debris flow due to the steep mountainous topography, complex terrain, monsoonal rains, and freeze/thaw action - and the new infrastructure has exhibited these processes in the form of rockfall, embankment failure, and debris flow. NASA DEVELOP partnered with CORO to conduct a feasibility assessment of Earth observations for identification of geohazards and slope failure susceptibility. Leveraging Earth observations (United States Geological Survey 3D Elevation Program Digital Elevation Model and a locally obtained Light Detection And Ranging-derived Digital Elevation Model) from 2019 to 2023, and geospatial datasets starting from 2008, the study was able to provide tools to determine the focus for damage mitigation, identify areas most susceptible to slope failures, and prioritize at risk assets through three products: change detection maps, slope failure susceptibility maps, and a slope failure prioritization model. With an emphasis on monitoring high-risk areas and prioritizing mitigation efforts, the project addresses a critical gap in remediation strategies and aims to enhance preservation and safety of the region. Results of this study found that (i) the most identifiable areas of change were the road cuts and debris directly adjacent to the roads created for border construction, (ii) areas of highest slope failure susceptibility are located in mountainous areas with erosive geology, and (iii) roads resulting from border construction have approximately twice the risk of slope failure as roads created by the national park service.

Geohazard↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of flow and transport in a fracture network at the EGS Collab field experiment through stochastic modeling of tracer recovery

Energy extraction from subsurface reservoirs is important for addressing the increasing energy demand and environmental concerns such as global warming. However, the characterization of subsurface reservoirs, particularly reservoirs dominated by fracture networks remains a challenge due to the lack of means to directly observe subsurface processes. This study explores the feasibility and efficacy of characterizing fracture flow and transport processes in an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) testbed through stochastic tracer modeling. There are two enabling factors that allow application of stochastic modeling to characterize a subsurface reservoir. First, an abundance of geological and geophysical measurements enables the development of a high-fidelity and well-constrained fracture network model. Second, high-performance computing (HPC) allows running massive realizations efficiently. Six conservative tracer tests were stochastically modeled and produced satisfactory realizations that successfully reproduce field tracer recovery data from each tracer test. The evolution of flow and transport processes in the fracture network was then analyzed from these satisfactory realizations. This work demonstrates that stochastic tracer modeling on a high-fidelity fracture network model is feasible and can provide important insights regarding flow and transport characteristics in subsurface fractured reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prescreening-Based Subset Selection for Improving Predictions of Earth System Models With Application to Regional Prediction of Red Tide

We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, a toxic single celled protist. We present ensemble method for improving red tide prediction using the high resolution ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reanalysis data. The study results highlight the importance of prescreening-based subset selection with decision relevant metrics in identifying non-representative models, understanding their impact on ensemble prediction, and improving the ensemble prediction. These findings are pertinent to other regional environmental management applications and climate services. Additionally, our analysis follows the FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship such that data and analysis tools are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. As such, the interactive Colab notebooks developed for data analysis are annotated in the paper. This allows for efficient and transparent testing of the results’ sensitivity to different modeling assumptions. Moreover, this research serves as a starting point to build upon for red tide management, using the publicly available CMIP, Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and reanalysis data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Co-optimization of CO 2 -EOR and Storage Processes under Geological Uncertainty

This paper presents an integrated numerical framework to co-optimize EOR and CO 2 storage performance in the Farnsworth field unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. The framework includes a field-scale compositional reservoir flow model, an uncertainty quantification model and a neural network optimization process. The reservoir flow model has been constructed based on the field geophysical, geological, and engineering data. A laboratory fluid analysis was tuned to an equation of state and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP). A history match of primary and secondary recovery processes was conducted to estimate the reservoir and multiphase flow parameters as the baseline case for analyzing the effect of recycling produced gas, infill drilling and water alternating gas (WAG) cycles on oil recovery and CO 2 storage. A multi-objective optimization model was defined for maximizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The uncertainty quantification model comprising the Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis, was used to study the effects of uncertain variables on the defined objective functions. Uncertain variables such as bottom hole injection pressure, WAG cycle, injection and production group rates, and gas-oil ratio among others were selected. The most significant variables were selected as control variables to be used for the optimization process. A neural network optimization algorithm was utilized to optimize the objective function both with and without geological uncertainty. The vertical permeability anisotropy (Kv/Kh) was selected as one of the uncertain parameters in the optimization process. The simulation results were compared to a scenario baseline case that predicted CO 2 storage of 74%. The results showed an improved approach for optimizing oil recovery and CO 2 storage in the FWU. The optimization process predicted more than 94% of CO 2 storage and most importantly about 28% of incremental oil recovery. The sensitivity analysis reduced the number of control variables to decrease computational time. A risk aversion factor was used to represent results at various confidence levels to assist management in the decision-making process. The defined objective functions were proved to be a robust approach to co-optimize oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The Farnsworth CO 2 project will serve as a benchmark for future CO 2 –EOR or CCUS projects in the Anadarko basin or geologically similar basins throughout the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗