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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Learning Heterogeneous Features Jointly: A Deep End-to-End Framework for Multi-Step Short-Term Wind Power Prediction

Leveraging multiple heterogeneous measurements to predict wind power has long been a challenging task in the electrical community. In this paper, a deep architecture incorporated with multitask learning and multimodal learning for wind power prediction, termed predictive stacked autoencoder (PSAE), is presented. PSAE is a unified framework integrating multiple stacked autoencoders (SAEs), one feature fusion layer, and one prediction terminal layer, which expands the architecture from two spatial dimensions, including the depth and width, compared to conventional prediction models. Initially, the SAEs at the bottom of PSAE extracted features from multiple kinds of measurements respectively. Following, the feature fusion layer encodes the high-order features extracted by different SAEs into a unified feature that is more informative and representative for wind power prediction. Finally, the prediction terminal layer functions as a regression machine which generates the predicted targets based on the fusion features. Trained in an end-to-end (E2E) manner, PSAE is capable of learning heterogeneous features jointly and achieving the prediction task of sequence-to-sequence (S2S). Experiments for multi-step short-term predictions are conducted on real-world data, and the results demonstrate the superiority of PSAE to prior methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Reinforced double-threaded slide-ring networks for accelerated hydrogel discovery and 3D printing

Traditionally, slide-ring gels are stretchable but soft as a result of an elasticity-stretchability trade-off. Herein, we introduce a new approach to breaking this trade-off and creating reinforced slide-ring networks with mobile crosslinkers. Our approach involves the construction of a polyethylene glycol double-threaded γ-cyclodextrin-based pro-slide-ring crosslinker that serves as a modular component for 3D printing and copolymerization. The resulting crystalline-domain-reinforced slide-ring hydrogels, or CrysDoS-gels, exhibit both high elasticity and high stretchability. The modular synthesis allows for high-throughput synthesis of CrysDoS-gels, generating a large amount of data for structure-property analysis. Here, by employing data science techniques, such as machine learning and linear regression, not only were we able to identify which chemical components influence the mechanical properties of CrysDoS-gels, but this analysis also aided in the discovery of better-performing CrysDoS-gels. Finally, we demonstrate the potential application of the newly discovered CrysDoS-gels as sensing devices by 3D printing them as stress sensors with high sensitivity and a broad detection range.

3D-printing↗

Skopi: a simulation package for diffractive imaging of noncrystalline biomolecules

X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) have the ability to produce ultra-bright femtosecond X-ray pulses for coherent diffraction imaging of biomolecules. While the development of methods and algorithms for macromolecular crystallography is now mature, XFEL experiments involving aerosolized or solvated biomolecular samples offer new challenges in terms of both experimental design and data processing. Skopi is a simulation package that can generate single-hit diffraction images for reconstruction algorithms, multi-hit diffraction images of aggregated particles for training machine learning classifiers using labeled data, diffraction images of randomly distributed particles for fluctuation X-ray scattering algorithms, and diffraction images of reference and target particles for holographic reconstruction algorithms. Skopi is a resource to aid feasibility studies and advance the development of algorithms for noncrystalline experiments at XFEL facilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assurance of Reasoning Enabled Systems (ARES)

ARES was in part motivated by the determination of President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) on May 13th, 2023 that published a set of inquiries: In an era in which convincing images, audio, and text can be generated with ease on a massive scale, how can we ensure reliable access to verifiable, trustworthy information? How can we be certain that a particular piece of media is genuinely from the claimed source? What technologies, policies, and infrastructure can be developed to detect and counter AI-generated disinformation? In an effort to automatically analyze and patch/optimize code the work in this report describes various neural Machine Learning (ML) analysis engine implementations to assist in situations where source code is deficient or completely lacking to decompile (lift) binary code to ’C’. The goal is to gradually reduce human intervention. To this end, two Large Language Model (LLM) variants (Code LLama 2, LLama 3.1 and Starcoder1, Starcoder 2) where finetuned with ’before/after’ code pairs on the OpenBLAS library. LLama trained on the lowering process, Starcoder trained on the lifting process with National Security Agency’s (NSA) open-source Ghidra decompiler assist. The inferencing test results indicate correctness for only very short sequences for Starcoder 2. Moving forward, the experiments conclude with a set of recommendations of required resources and technologies

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A global DSCOVR/EPIC-based hourly/daily shortwave radiation/PAR dataset

Accurate characterization of the global downward shortwave (SW) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) is fundamental for Earth system modeling and global change research. Combined with a machine-learning method, we used the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) data onboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) to generate the global SW/PAR dataset at both hourly and daily temporal scales and 0.1degree×0.1degree spatial resolution. Covering a period from June, 2015 to June (about 4 years), 2019, the dataset consists of total SW/PAR and their direct and diffuse components. Our dataset will be valuable for understanding the diurnal cycles and seasonal patterns of ecosystem processes, as well as the solar energy utilizations

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data reduction through optimized scalar quantization for more compact neural networks

Raw data generation for several existing and planned large physics experiments now exceeds TB/s rates, generating untenable data sets in very little time. Those data often demonstrate high dimensionality while containing limited information. Meanwhile, Machine Learning algorithms are now becoming an essential part of data processing and data analysis. Those algorithms can be used offline for post processing and post data analysis, or they can be used online for real time processing providing ultra low latency experiment monitoring. Both use cases would benefit from data throughput reduction while preserving relevant information: one by reducing the offline storage requirements by several orders of magnitude and the other by allowing ultra fast online inferencing with low complexity Machine Learning models. Moreover, reducing the data source throughput also reduces material cost, power and data management requirements. In this work we demonstrate optimized nonuniform scalar quantization for data source reduction. This data reduction allows lower dimensional representations while preserving the relevant information of the data, thus enabling high accuracy Tiny Machine Learning classifier models for online fast inferences. We demonstrate this approach with an initial proof of concept targeting the CookieBox, an array of electron spectrometers used for angular streaking, that was developed for LCLS-II as an online beam diagnostic tool. We used the Lloyd-Max algorithm with the CookieBox dataset to design an optimized nonuniform scalar quantizer. Optimized quantization lets us reduce input data volume by 69% with no significant impact on inference accuracy. When we tolerate a 2% loss on inference accuracy, we achieved 81% of input data reduction. Finally, the change from a 7-bit to a 3-bit input data quantization reduces our neural network size by 38%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Fast Framework for Generating Radioactive Mixture Spectra and Its Application to Remote High-Performance Mixture Identification

Remote detection of radioactive materials in mixtures using handheld or portal detectors remains a challenge because of factors such as low concentration, environmental interference, sensor noise, and other complications. This work introduces a fast framework for generating realistic mixture spectra. Moreover, we present mixture isotope identification using data generated by the fast framework. Researchers have examined a range of conventional and recent algorithms within the fields of machine learning and deep learning. An application to uranium enrichment-level prediction has been included. Extensive simulation experiments validated the efficacy of the proposed framework.

GADRAS↗

Perspective on Solar Energy Materials, Design and Discovery, Defects, Disorder, and Interfaces

The energy transition still faces a daunting math. Currently, more than three quarters of final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels vs less than one quarter in electricity. On the other hand, renewable energy additions come almost exclusively in the form of electricity (dominantly photovoltaics and wind). Thus, meeting the terawatt challenge requires enormous growth in renewables, sufficient to convert excess electricity into fuels, as well as the development of non-electricity based solar fuel technologies, for example via solar thermochemical routes. In this presentation, we will review successes and challenges in photovoltaic materials from silicon to CdTe to halide perovskites and potential emerging materials, with a particular perspective on the role of first principles calculations and predictions. Materials design and discovery is evolving to incorporate defects, disorder, and interfaces. These phenomena play also an important role in the thermochemical generation of hydrogen, allowing to utilize synergies between renewable electricity and fuels in computational research. At the same time, machine learning approaches are increasingly geared toward properties of non-ideal materials, for example defect formation, allowing the screening for more complex material behavior as needed for the respective applications.

fuels↗

Surrogate-driven Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Storage Tanks in Integrated Energy Systems

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification are essential steps for enhancing the accuracy of computational models by identifying and mitigating uncertainties. This study focuses on these steps for the Thermal Energy Delivery System at Idaho National Laboratory, specifically targeting the thermocline tank. Using a Modelica/Dymola simulation model, the study perturbed various design parameters and boundary conditions, including shape factor, porosity, outlet temperature, inlet mass flow rate, and system pressure, to predict and quantify uncertainty in the tank’s ax- ial temperature. A dataset of over 1,000 simulations was generated, and surrogate models were developed using the pyMAISE (Michigan Artificial Intelligence Standard Environment) library, which is an Automatic Machine Learning library for nuclear engineering applications. The optimal model, a feedforward neural network with two hidden layers, achieved an R2 score above 0.99 and a mean absolute error below 1 Kelvin. Sensitivity analyses using Sobol indices and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing methods on this surrogate model revealed that the inlet mass flow rate at initial timestamps and porosity significantly impacts predicted temperatures across all sensors and time steps.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Machine-learning-informed scattering correlation analysis of sheared colloids

We have carried out theoretical analysis, Monte Carlo simulations and machine-learning analysis to quantify microscopic rearrangements of dilute dispersions of spherical colloidal particles from coherent scattering intensity. Both monodisperse and polydisperse dispersions of colloids were created and underwent a rearrangement consisting of an affine simple shear and non-affine rearrangement using the Monte Carlo method. We calculated the coherent scattering intensity of the dispersions and the correlation function of intensity before and after the rearrangement and generated a large data set of angular correlation functions for varying system parameters, including number density, polydispersity, shear strain and non-affine rearrangement. Singular value decomposition of the data set shows the feasibility of machine-learning inversion from the correlation function for the polydispersity, shear strain and non-affine rearrangement using only three parameters. A Gaussian process regressor is then trained on the data set and can retrieve the affine shear strain, non-affine rearrangement and polydispersity with relative errors of 3%, 1% and 6%, respectively. Altogether, our model provides a framework for quantitative studies of both steady and non-steady microscopic dynamics of colloidal dispersions using coherent scattering methods.

Gaussian process regression↗

Deep learning of dynamically responsive chemical Hamiltonians with semiempirical quantum mechanics

Conventional machine-learning (ML) models in computational chemistry learn to directly predict molecular properties using quantum chemistry only for reference data. While these heuristic ML methods show quantum-level accuracy with speeds several orders of magnitude faster than traditional quantum chemistry methods, they suffer from poor extensibility and transferability; i.e., their accuracy degrades on large or new chemical systems. Incorporating quantum chemistry frameworks into the ML models directly solves this problem. Here we take the structure of semiempirical quantum mechanics (SEQM) methods to construct dynamically responsive Hamiltonians. SEQM methods use empirical parameters fitted to experimental properties to construct reduced-order Hamiltonians, facilitating much faster calculations than ab initio methods but with compromised accuracy. By replacing these static parameters with machine-learned dynamic values inferred from the local environment, we greatly improve the accuracy of the SEQM methods. Trained on molecular energies and atomic forces, these dynamically generated Hamiltonian parameters show a strong correlation with atomic hybridization and bonding. Trained with only about 60,000 small organic molecular conformers, the resulting model retains interpretability, extensibility, and transferability when testing on much larger chemical systems and predicting various molecular properties. Overall, this work demonstrates the virtues of incorporating physics-based descriptions with ML to develop models that are simultaneously accurate, transferable, and interpretable.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine Learning for Thermal Transport Analysis of Aluminum Alloys with Precipitate Morphology

A large number of microstructural parameters and a wide range of transport physics impose challenges on thermal transport analysis of alloy. Herein, modern data science techniques are employed to overcome the challenges, pursuing effective calculation of thermal transport properties. This emerging approach is tested for precipitate-hardened aluminum (Al) alloy with consideration of precipitate morphology. The finite element method (FEM) is employed to create a database of effective thermal conductivity of hypothetical Al alloys with varying precipitate morphological and thermal transport features. Using the FEM-generated data sets, the correlation analysis is conducted to qualitatively evaluate the importance of various precipitate features. The correlation analysis identifies the surface area, average diameter, and volume fraction of precipitates as the most descriptive features for determining the thermal conductivity of alloys. Afterward machine learning (ML) models are trained to accurately predict the effective thermal conductivity. Comparing the ML predictions with effective thermal conductivity and microstructural information from experiments, precipitate thermal transport properties can be calculated, such as interfacial conductance between Al matrix and precipitate, without atomistic simulations. This research demonstrates the feasibility of data-driven approaches for effective thermal transport calculation and the promise of the FEM-generated data analysis for more comprehensive evaluation of metallic alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Post-2026 Environmental Impact Statement Rate Analysis for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a principal power-generating asset within the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP), accounting for approximately 70–80% of CRSP power production over the past two decades. In June 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) issued a Notice of Intent to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) outlining operational guidelines and strategies for Colorado River Basin reservoirs after 2026 (Reclamation, 2023). Power generation is among CRSP’s statutory purposes under the Colorado River Storage Project Act of 1956 (U.S. Congress, 1956). Assessing how alternative policy frameworks affect CRSP power production and the resulting electricity rates for U.S. customers is therefore essential to inform decision-making. This report evaluates projected electricity rates and the market value of electricity from the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) CRSP GCD under multiple post-2026 policy scenarios to support Reclamation’s EIS development. Results from advanced econometric and machine learning models indicate that the Enhanced Coordination alternative (EnhanCoor), Maximum Operational Flexibility alternative (CCA), and Supply Driven - 55 alternative (SD55) alternatives yield more favorable hydropower generation and capacity outcomes, which are objectives outlined in Reclamation’s documentations (Reclamation, 2007; Reclamation, 2016). Specifically, these scenarios are associated with higher electricity production, lower projected rate trajectories, and greater economic value to the U.S. power system from CRSP generation. The remaining five scenarios generally produce lower generation, higher rate trajectories, and reduced long-term market values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Machine Learning of Bacterial Transcriptomes Reveals Responses Underlying Differential Antibiotic Susceptibility

In vitro antibiotic susceptibility testing often fails to accurately predict in vivo drug efficacies, in part due to differences in the molecular composition between standardized bacteriologic media and physiological environments within the body. Here, we investigate the interrelationship between antibiotic susceptibility and medium composition in Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 as contextualized through machine learning of transcriptomics data. Application of independent component analysis, a signal separation algorithm, shows that complex phenotypic changes induced by environmental conditions or antibiotic treatment are directly traced to the action of a few key transcriptional regulators, including RpoS, Fur, and Fnr. Integrating machine learning results with biochemical knowledge of transcription factor activation reveals medium-dependent shifts in respiration and iron availability that drive differential antibiotic susceptibility. By extension, the data generation and data analytics workflow used here can interrogate the regulatory state of a pathogen under any measured condition and can be applied to any strain or organism for which sufficient transcriptomics data are available.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning-Based Investigation of the Associations between Residential Power Consumption and Weather Conditions

Machine learning feature selection analyses were conducted to understand the impact of various weather attributes on power electricity demand and its components in the northwest United States. Load profiles data were obtained from the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) and processed to yield hourly load profiles with the same temporal resolution as the weather conditions data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for representative weather stations. The data were divided into five seasons; for each season, for each load component, the influences of weather factors were evaluated and quantified using cross-correlation, principal component analysis, and mutual information evaluation; then predictive models were developed based on the ranked/screened factors using the regression tree (RT) approach. After multi-fold cross-validation, the optimal complexity/depth of the regress tree models is found to vary for different load components, and the prediction accuracy using RT and weather data can be higher than 80% for heating and refrigeration, or lower than 30% for vent and cooking. The study provides guidance on improvement of load profile generation, or even serves as a standalone predictive tool for approximating load profiles in balance authorities or climate zones where load profile data is absent.

load composite, load profiling, NEEA, mutual infor↗

Quantum graph learning and algorithms applied in quantum computer sciences and image classification

Graph and network theory play a fundamental role in quantum computer sciences, including quantum information and computation. Random graphs and complex network theory are pivotal in predicting novel quantum phenomena, where entangled links are represented by edges. Quantum algorithms have been developed to enhance solutions for various network problems, giving rise to quantum graph computing and quantum graph learning (QGL). Here, in this review, we explore graph theory and graph learning methods as powerful tools for quantum computers to generate efficient solutions to problems beyond the reach of classical systems. We delve into the development of quantum complex network theory and its applications in quantum computation, materials discovery, and research. We also discuss quantum machine learning (QML) methodologies for effective image classification using qubits, quantum gates, and quantum circuits. Additionally, the paper addresses the challenges of QGL and algorithms, emphasizing the steps needed to develop flexible QGL solvers. This review presents a comprehensive overview of the fields of QGL and QML, highlights recent advancements, and identifies opportunities for future research.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Parallel hybrid quantum-classical machine learning for kernelized time-series classification

Supervised time-series classification garners widespread interest because of its applicability throughout a broad application domain including finance, astronomy, biosensors, and many others. Here, in this work, we tackle this problem with hybrid quantum-classical machine learning, deducing pairwise temporal relationships between time-series instances using a timeseries Hamiltonian kernel (TSHK). A TSHK is constructed with a sum of inner products generated by quantum states evolved using a parameterized time evolution operator. This sum is then optimally weighted using techniques derived from multiple kernel learning. Because we treat the kernel weighting step as a differentiable convex optimization problem, our method can be regarded as an end-to-end learnable hybrid quantum-classical-convex neural network, or QCC-net, whose output is a data set-generalized kernel function suitable for use in any kernelized machine learning technique such as the support vector machine (SVM). Using our TSHK as input to a SVM, we classify univariate and multivariate time-series using quantum circuit simulators and demonstrate the efficient parallel deployment of the algorithm to 127-qubit superconducting quantum processors using quantum multi-programming.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗