Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “evaluation framework”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Insights on sources and formation mechanisms of liquid-bearing clouds over MOSAiC examined from a Lagrangian framework

Understanding Arctic stratiform liquid-bearing cloud life cycles and properly representing these life cycles in models is crucial for evaluations of cloud feedbacks as well as the faithfulness of climate projections for this rapidly warming region. Examination of cloud life cycles typically requires analyses of cloud evolution and origins on short time scales, on the order of hours to several days. Measurements from the recent Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition provide a unique view of the current state of the central Arctic over an annual cycle. Here, we use the MOSAiC radiosonde measurements to detect liquid-bearing cloud layers over full atmospheric columns and to examine the cloud-generating air masses’ properties. We perform 5-day (120 h) back-trajectory calculations for every detected cloud and cluster them using a unique set of variables extracted from these trajectories informed by ERA5 reanalysis data. This clustering method enables us to separate between the air mass source regions such as ice-covered Arctic and midlatitude open water. We find that moisture intrusions into the central Arctic typically result in multilayer liquid-bearing cloud structures and that more than half of multilayer profiles include overlying liquid-bearing clouds originating in different types of air masses. Finally, we conclude that Arctic cloud formation via prolonged radiative cooling of elevated stable subsaturated air masses circulating over the Arctic can occur frequently (up to 20% of detected clouds in the sounding data set) and may lead to a significant impact of ensuing clouds on the surface energy budget, including net surface warming in some cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing Bloom Filters for Web Archives’ Holdings (Final Project Report)

The main goal of the project was to develop a framework for web archives to create Bloom filters based on their holdings of archived web resources. A Bloom filter (BF) is a data structure that, in our scenario, contains hash values of all (or a subset of) URLs, of which an archive has one or more archival copies. Two main use cases fall in scope for this project and are supported by a BF implementation: 1) Sharing of an archive’s holdings (URLs) and 2) Querying the holdings of one or more archives. Since URL strings are hashed before ingested into the BF, the index of an archive is not shared in plain text when the BF is shared with trusted parties. On the other hand, a BF implementation does allow queries for a URL to confirm if an archive indeed has one or more archival copies of that URL. This collaborative project between Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the Croatian Web Archive (HAW), from the National and University Library in Zagreb (NSK), developed by NSK and University of Zagreb University Computing Center SRCE), aimed at developing software to create BFs, evaluate the scalability of the approach, pilot a search service based on BFs, and design a framework for archives to share their filters with trusted parties. In the remainder of this document, we will report on the work completed with respect to the individual deliverables, outline aspects of future work, and conclude with our recommendations for the use of BFs for the web archiving community.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy Model to Evaluate Thermal Energy Storage Integrated with Air Source Heat Pumps: Preprint

Full decarbonization in buildings requires the replacement of combustion appliances with electric ones, and air source heat pumps (ASHP) are a candidate alternative. However, technical limitations, such as the efficiency decrease when operating in cold weather, limit their adoption in the global heating market. Among several options to improve ASHP efficiency operating in colder climates, thermal energy storage (TES) has been considered, as it may provide heating when it is cold and shift ASHP operation to times when the weather is warmer. It may also take advantage of time of use electricity rates and support defrosting when necessary. The evaluation of ASHP-TES systems, however, is still limited because traditional metrics do not capture their full economic and environmental benefits. In this work, a python framework is presented to model the ASHP with and without the presence of TES. Metrics are proposed to analyze the system performance in terms of costs, equivalent CO2 emission, and efficiency metrics to evaluate and compare alternative systems. Model validation against experimental data obtained for a commercial heat pump is provided, as well as an application example using Denver, Colorado, to highlight the model capabilities.

cold climate↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid Energy-Powered Electrochemical Direct Ocean Capture Model

Offshore synthetic fuel production and marine carbon dioxide removal can be enabled by direct ocean capture, which extracts carbon dioxide from the ocean that then can be used as a feedstock for fuel production or sequestered underground. To maximize carbon capture, plants require a variety of low-carbon energy sources to operate, such as variable renewable energy. However, the impacts of variable power on direct ocean capture have not yet been thoroughly investigated. To facilitate future deployments, a generalizable model for electrodialysis-based direct ocean capture plants is created to evaluate plant performance and electricity costs under intermittent power availability. This open-source Python-based model captures key aspects of the electrochemistry, ocean chemistry, post-processing, and operation scenarios under various conditions. To incorporate realistic energy supply dynamics and cost estimates, the model is coupled with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s H2Integrate tool, which simulates hybrid energy system performance profiles and costs. This integrated framework is designed to provide system-level insights while maintaining computational efficiency and flexibility for scenario exploration. Initial evaluations show similar results to those predicted by the industry, and demonstrate how a given plant could function with variable power in different deployment locations, such as with wind energy off the coast of Texas and with wind and wave energy off the coast of Oregon. The results suggest that electrochemical systems with greater tolerances for power variability and low minimum power requirements may offer operational advantages in variable-energy contexts. However, further research is needed to quantify these benefits and evaluate their implications across different deployment scenarios.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Centralized AI Lakehouse Framework for Brain Tumor MRI Classification and Segmentation, University KPI Forecasting, and Water Potability Prediction

In many university and healthcare projects, models are built for very different data types such as tables, institutional time series, and medical images, but they are deployed as separate applications. In this work, that separation made testing and maintenance difficult because each module had its own pipeline and runtime requirements. This paper presents an integrated AI lakehouse-style implementation that runs three model pipelines inside one containerized backend. For medical imaging, we used MRI datasets from IEEE DataPort: a four-class classification set with 7012 images (5708 train/1304 test) and a segmentation set with 3063 image–mask pairs. The classification model (ResNet50 transfer learning) is evaluated using a proper train–validation–test protocol across multiple splits (80/10/10, 70/10/20, 60/10/30, and 10/30/60), achieving a test accuracy of 99.00% under the standard 80/10/10 split. Additionally, a patient-level evaluation is conducted using an external glioma dataset to provide a more realistic assessment without data leakage. The segmentation model (DeepLabV3-ResNet50) achieved 83.09% validation mIoU and 88.79% Dice score. For university KPI forecasting, we used annual IPEDS and NSF HERD data from 2010 to 2023 for three universities (BSU, EOU, and UAB). To examine the effect of preprocessing on forecasting performance, two case studies are conducted. In the first case, linear interpolation is applied to generate semester-level data. In the second case, the original annual data is used directly without interpolation. Random Forest regression and ARIMA models are evaluated using MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R 2 . The results showed that interpolation improved apparent forecasting performance due to smoothing, while evaluation on the original annual data provided a more realistic assessment of model behavior. To further validate the framework on a larger dataset, an additional case study is conducted using a student dropout dataset. For water potability, we trained and compared multiple tabular classifiers on a large dataset (1,048,575 samples). A Random Forest model (100 trees, max depth 10) achieved 85.86% test accuracy and high recall for unsafe samples (0.8447). All modules are served via FastAPI and deployed together using Docker, with workflow automation routing requests to the correct endpoint. System-level benchmarking indicates that the backend maintains stable throughput and latency under concurrent requests.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Packages of Distributed Energy Technologies Demonstrating Demand Flexibility at Community Scale

The combination of increased electric load growth across all sectors, deferred electrical infrastructure investment, and other factors resulting in variable electric power supply, has created technical challenges to maintaining a resilient and reliable grid. Many federal, regional, and local efforts are in play to modernize the electric grid, including advancing building technologies and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are utilizing smarter controls to become responsive to both occupant and grid needs. This report reviews ten pilot projects demonstrating how groups of buildings combined with behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs such as electric vehicle (EV) charging, battery storage, flexible HVAC and domestic hot water systems, and photovoltaic systems can reliably and cost effectively provide grid services. Each of the ten pilot projects aim to deliver both energy efficiency and demand flexibility (DF) while supporting load growth. The ten demonstration teams are piloting flexible DER packages across diverse communities of residential and commercial buildings to address a variety of regional grid needs. The outcomes of these pilot projects will be used to inform future scaling through utility program development. This paper characterizes the ten teams, showcasing the decision-making process used by each group to develop their packages (Section 2), the grid services they plan to deliver (Section 3), the types of DER packages selected for deployment within building sectors (Section 4) and trends between building sector, DER types, and grid services In order to achieve community scale benefits, the pilot projects must utilize aggregated control mechanisms for coordinating buildings and DERs together. Several types of coordinated control architectures have evolved amongst the teams, influenced by use type, existing market conditions, and integration type. Three coordinated controls architectures have been characterized, highlighting their use cases, benefits, challenges, and tradeoffs in their design. These insights can aid utilities, control vendors, and developers in scaling community-level energy systems (Paul, 2024). Ultimately, the technology packages selected by the ten teams will be coordinated to provide power system services, also known as grid services. Insights from these demonstrations will be useful for grid operators, regulators, aggregators and other stakeholders as they look to deploy demand flexible resources as grid services in the future. The grid services that each team is targeting for demonstration are described in Section 3 and Section 4. Methods for evaluating the grid services have been described in the paper Metrics for Evaluating Grid Service Provision from Communities of Grid-interactive and Efficient Buildings and other DER (MacDonald, 2023). To identify technology packages for demonstration, Section 2 shows that project teams used a range of analysis approaches, including building energy modeling, AMI data analysis, cost-benefit frameworks, and utility pilot data. Some teams emphasized technical modeling to quantify grid impacts and demand reduction potential, while others prioritized economic evaluations, stakeholder input, or exploratory pilots to inform deployment decisions. This diversity reflects the need to tailor selection methods to project goals, available data, and organizational context. Section 5 discusses trends between the DER technologies deployed and the grid service provisions from each team. Residential buildings (multifamily and single family) lean towards technologies that enhance energy efficiency (e.g. weatherization upgrades, smart thermostats) and onsite power generation integration (e.g. solar PV). Commercial building demonstrations prioritize technologies that ensure operational reliability (e.g. battery storage) and centralized energy management systems and optimization solutions. Teams that are deploying controllable storage-based technologies are more likely to provide grid services that require a near real-time response. Teams incorporating load shifting technologies like smart thermostats with HEMs are likely to include energy markets participation and customer bill management offerings. Campus demonstrations are adopting diverse sets of DERs to emphasize renewable generation, paired with centralized control. This section also describes technologies that were considered during project planning but ultimately excluded from final deployment. These demonstrations reveal that effective DER package design should be tailored to building type, customer segment, and construction vintage. Multifamily buildings benefit from centralized HVAC upgrades and supervisory controls, while single-family homes are well-suited for individualized technologies like solar, storage, and smart home energy monitors. Commercial and campus settings prioritize EMIS integration and load optimization. New construction enables cost-effective integration of DER-ready infrastructure, whereas retrofits require deployments aligned with owner and tenant value streams. For utility program planners, early coordination with developers and building owners, paired with segmented and modular program offerings, can improve adoption, scalability, and grid impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States

The Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States provides state energy offices, public utility commissions, and partner organizations with a structured framework for integrating cyber-resilient engineering practices into energy planning, grantmaking, interconnection processes, and workforce development. As grid digitalization and the adoption of distributed energy resources accelerate, states face expanding cyber-physical risks that traditional cybersecurity measures alone cannot fully address. CIE offers a proactive, consequence-focused engineering methodology that emphasizes eliminating or mitigating high-impact failure modes through design, physical controls, and operational safeguards. The guide outlines the 12 core CIE principles, demonstrates their application through state-focused use cases—including grant evaluation rubrics, interconnection reviews, allow-list development, and training programs—and provides practical tools such as scoring frameworks, impact assessment methods, and implementation checklists. It also highlights pathways for state–utility collaboration and opportunities for technical assistance from national laboratories. By adopting CIE, states can enhance grid reliability, reduce lifecycle costs, strengthen supply-chain assurance, and foster a security-aware engineering culture that aligns with broader resilience and modernization goals. November 2025

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States

The Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States provides state energy offices, public utility commissions, and partner organizations with a structured framework for integrating cyber-resilient engineering practices into energy planning, grantmaking, interconnection processes, and workforce development. As grid digitalization and the adoption of distributed energy resources accelerate, states face expanding cyber-physical risks that traditional cybersecurity measures alone cannot fully address. CIE offers a proactive, consequence-focused engineering methodology that emphasizes eliminating or mitigating high-impact failure modes through design, physical controls, and operational safeguards. The guide outlines the 12 core CIE principles, demonstrates their application through state-focused use cases—including grant evaluation rubrics, interconnection reviews, allow-list development, and training programs—and provides practical tools such as scoring frameworks, impact assessment methods, and implementation checklists. It also highlights pathways for state–utility collaboration and opportunities for technical assistance from national laboratories. By adopting CIE, states can enhance grid reliability, reduce lifecycle costs, strengthen supply-chain assurance, and foster a security-aware engineering culture that aligns with broader resilience and modernization goals. November 2025

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Significance of the Direct Excitation Mechanism for High-Frequency Response of Premixed Flames to Flow Oscillations

Premixed flames are sensitive to flow disturbances, which can arise from acoustic or vortical fluctuations. For transverse instabilities, it is known that a dominant mechanism for flame response is “injector coupling,” whereby pressure oscillations associated with transverse waves excite axial flow disturbances. These axial flow disturbances then excite heat release oscillations. The objective of this paper is to consider another mechanism—the direct sensitivity of the unsteady heat release to transverse acoustic waves—and to compare its significance relative to the induced axial disturbances, in a linear framework. The rate at which the flame adds energy to the disturbance field is quantified using the Rayleigh criterion and evaluated over a range of control parameters, such as flame length and swirl number. The results show that radial modes induce heat release fluctuations that always add energy to the acoustic field, whereas heat release fluctuations induced by mixed radial-azimuthal modes can add or remove energy. These amplification rates are then compared to the flame response from induced axial fluctuations. For combustor-centered flames, these results show that the direct excitation mechanism has negligible amplification rates relative to the induced axial mechanism for radial modes. For transverse modes, the fact that the nozzle is located at a pressure node indicates that negligible induced axial velocity disturbances are excited; as such, the direct mechanism dominates. As a result, for flames that are not centered on pressure nodes, the direct mechanism for mixed modes dominates for certain nozzle locations and flame angles.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

How reliable is distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis? A dual regression-classification perspective on DRT estimation, interpretation, and accuracy

The distribution of relaxation times (DRT) has gained increasing attention and adoption in recent years as a versatile method for analyzing electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data obtained from complex devices like fuel cells, electrolyzers, and batteries. The DRT deconvolutes the impedance without a priori specification of a generative model, which is especially useful for interpretation and model selection when the governing principles of the system under study are not fully understood. However, DRT estimation is an ill-posed inversion problem that must be addressed with a subjective choice of regularization and tuning, which leaves substantial risk of misleading interpretations of EIS data. In this work, we suggest a new classification view of the DRT inversion to clarify DRT estimation and interpretation. We introduce a dual regression-classification framework that unifies the classification and regression views of the DRT inversion with wide-reaching implications for DRT analysis. The dual framework is employed to demonstrate a new kind of DRT inversion algorithm and develop novel evaluation metrics that capture previously ignored aspects of DRT accuracy. These approaches are applied to both synthetic data and experimental spectra collected from a protonic ceramic fuel cell and a lithium-ion battery to illustrate their broad utility. The dual inversion algorithm shows promising performance for accurate DRT estimation and autonomous model identification, while the dual evaluation approach produces metrics that meaningfully assess the strengths and risks of DRT algorithms. Here this work provides valuable insight for both practical application of the DRT to experimental data and further development of EIS analysis methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cross-slip and easy-glide CRSS in titanium: Theoretical predictions and in-situ TEM measurements

This study investigates the mechanics of prismatic and first-order pyramidal $\langle$a$\rangle$ slip in titanium (Ti), elucidating the physics of easy-glide and cross-slip through a combination of theory and experiments. Screw-character prismatic (Pr) dislocations in Ti are of particular interest because their complex cores can be stable or unstable, leading to activation by either cross-slip or planar glide. To investigate these mechanisms, site-specific micro tensile samples were prepared using focused ion beam (FIB) milling and mounted on a push-to-pull (PTP) device for in-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) tensile testing. The in-situ experiments provide direct observations of the onset of dislocation motion and the precise determination of the critical resolved shear stress (CRSS) for the activated mechanisms, and its evolution with load cycling. A comprehensive theory has been developed to predict the CRSS values for easy glide, cross-slip, and multiplication of dislocations. Predicted critical stresses for pyramidal (π)-to-Pr and reverse cross-slip agree closely with the experimental measurements. The latter cross-slip stress is a factor of two higher than that of unobstructed planar slip. The model accounts for overlapping dislocation cores and employs a Wigner-Seitz based cell to evaluate misfit energies. By combining ab initio density functional theory (DFT) with anisotropic elasticity, the framework identifies minimum energy pathways for dislocation glide, which can be intermittent and zig-zag. A simplified expression utilizing (π) and Pr Schmid factor ratios is proposed for critical stress corresponding to (π)-to-Pr cross-slip transition. The results are strongly dependent on crystal orientation, underscoring non-Schmid behavior. Overall, this study explores key critical stress parameters essential for informing higher-scale simulations of plasticity in Ti.

Critical stress↗
DOE OSTI2020

A large-scale, agent-based simulation of metropolitan freight movements with passenger and freight market interactions

This study summarizes the first stage in the implementation of an agent-based freight modeling system that has a global representation of agents and detailed modeling of a large-scale transportation network. The model is used to evaluate the transportation and energy impacts of goods movement across urban and national scales. The framework is implemented within POLARIS, a C++-based Planning and Operations Language for Agent-based Regional Integrated Simulation, which consists of an activity-based modeling (ABM) and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) system that has robust features for passenger travel. This platform provides a tool to model interactions among consumers, producers, and the transportation system. The main objective of this initial implementation is to implement a freight model within POLARIS following an agent-based paradigm with behavioral and simulation methods. This paper presents the initial framework and illustrates the application of the model. Building upon earlier works, a parcel location assignment algorithm for business establishments in the population is documented, along with a method for estimating establishment production and consumption volumes. In addition to population generation, other features of the model include push-pull supply chains, multimodal path choice, choice of transportation logistics node, and dynamic traffic assignment. A module with e-commerce supply and demand was also developed to analyze the effects of e-commerce delivery on last-mile energy use and congestion.

agent-based freight↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring Ca–Ce–M–O (M = 3d Transition Metal) Oxide Perovskites for Solar Thermochemical Applications

Solar thermochemical (STC) processes hold promise as efficient ways to generate renewable fuels, fuel precursors, or chemical feedstocks using concentrated sunlight. Specifically, one actively researched approach is the two-step STC cycle, which uses a redox-active, off-stoichiometric, transition-metal oxide material to split water and/or CO 2 , generating H 2 and/or CO, respectively, or syngas (a combination of H 2 and CO). Identifying novel metal oxides that yield larger reduction extents (practically achievable off-stoichiometries) than the state-of-the-art CeO 2 is critical. Here, we explore the chemical space of Ca–Ce–M–O (M = 3d transition metal, except Cu and Zn) metal oxide perovskites, with Ca and/or Ce occupying the A site and M occupying the B site within an ABO 3 framework, as potential STC candidates. We use density functional theory (DFT)-based calculations and systematically evaluate the oxygen vacancy (VaO) formation energy (≈ enthalpy of reduction in an STC cycle), electronic properties, thermodynamic stability of CaMO 3 , CeMO 3 , and Ca 0.5 Ce 0.5 MO 3 perovskites, and the VaO formation energy within Ca 0.5 Ce 0.5 Ti 0.5 Mg 0.5 O 3 perovskite. We consider only Ca and/or Ce on the A site because of their similar size and the potential redox activity of Ce 4+ . If both Ce and M exhibit simultaneous reduction with Va O formation, the resulting perovskite could exhibit a larger entropy of reduction than a single cation reduction. The increased entropy produces increased reduction for fixed temperature, partial pressure of oxygen, and reduction enthalpy, and therefore increased STC efficiency. Importantly, we identify Ca 0.5 Ce 0.5 MnO 3 , Ca 0.5 Ce 0.5 FeO 3 , and Ca 0.5 Ce 0.5 VO 3 to be promising candidates based on their Va O formation energy and thermodynamic (meta)stability. Moreover, based on our calculated on-site magnetic moments, electron density of states, and electron density differences between pristine and defective structures, we find Ca 0.5 Ce 0.5 MnO 3 to exhibit simultaneous reduction of both Ce 4+ (A-site) and Mn 3+ (B-site), highlighting a particularly promising candidate for STC applications with a predicted higher entropy of reduction than CeO 2 . Lastly, we extract metrics that govern the trends in Va O formation energies, such as standard reduction potentials, and provide pointers for further experimental and theoretical studies, which will enable the design of improved materials for the STC cycle.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

On-line Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry Reveals Material Degradation Dynamics of Au and Cu Catalysts during Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction

A significant challenge in commercializing electrochemical CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) is achieving catalyst durability. Here, in this study, online inductively coupled mass spectrometry (ICP–MS) was used to investigate catalyst degradation via nanoparticle detachment and/or dissolution into metal ions under CO 2 R operating conditions in 0.1 M KHCO 3 . We developed an experimental framework with ex situ characterization to validate the online ICP–MS method for in situ evaluation of degradation from metal foils. By varying the applied potential and microenvironment (CO 2 vs N 2 -saturated electrolyte), we gained insights into the degradation of Au and Cu foils under CO 2 R and hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) conditions. While both Au and Cu foils were observed to be stable to dissolution in these regimes, degradation via nanoparticle detachment from the foil surface at the femtogram scale was observed as a function of reaction conditions, providing new insights into material degradation mechanisms. When applying potential steps at −0.1 and −1.0 V vs the reversible hydrogen electrode (RHE), Au was found to degrade via nanoparticle detachment under CO 2 R operating conditions more than under HER conditions, while Cu was found to degrade via nanoparticle detachment in similar amounts during both reactions. Au lost ∼1.8× more mass and ∼7.5× more nanoparticles than Cu under CO 2 R operating conditions. This study demonstrates the use of online ICP–MS to gain insight into the degradation of Au and Cu, the importance of studying unconventional degradation mechanisms such as nanoparticle detachment, and that online ICP–MS can be further utilized to gain fundamental understanding of catalyst durability for a variety of reaction systems.

Yan, Katherine [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward More Actionable Flood‐Risk Information

Abstract The increasingly urgent need to develop knowledge and practices to manage flood risks drives innovative information design. However, experts often disagree about design practices. As a result, flood‐risk estimates can diverge, leading to different conclusions for decision‐making. Using examples of household‐scale fluvial (riverine) flood‐risk information in the United States, we assess design features and risk communication approaches that may lead to more actionable information for decision‐making. We argue that increased attention to uncertainty characterization and model diagnostics is a critical intermediate step for developing simpler approaches for designing flood‐risk information. Simpler frameworks are desirable because flood risks change over time, and simpler frameworks are less costly to update. Developing frameworks for large spatial domains require collaboration grounded in principles of open science. Finally, systematically evaluating how decision‐makers access and use information can provide new insights to guide risk communication and information design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Fragility of Bedform‐Induced Hyporheic Zones: Exploring Impacts of Dynamic Groundwater Table Fluctuations

Abstract Hyporheic zones are commonly regarded as resilient and enduring interfaces between groundwater and surface water in river corridors. In particular, bedform‐induced advective pumping hyporheic exchange (bedform‐induced exchange) is often perceived as a relatively persistent mechanism in natural river systems driving water, solutes, and energy exchanges between the channel and its surrounding streambed sediments. Numerous studies have been based on this presumption. To evaluate the persistence of hyporheic zones under varying hydrologic conditions, we use a multi‐physics framework to model advective pumping bedform‐induced hyporheic exchange in response to a series of seasonal‐ and event‐scale groundwater table fluctuation scenarios, which lead to episodic river‐aquifer disconnections and reconnections. Our results suggest that hyporheic exchange is not as ubiquitous as generally assumed. Instead, the bedform‐induced hyporheic exchange is restricted to a narrow range of conditions characterized by minor river‐groundwater head differences, is intermittent, and can be easily obliterated by minor losing groundwater conditions. These findings shed light on the fragility of bedform‐induced hyporheic exchange and have important implications for biogeochemical transformations along river corridors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical and global simulation analysis of collisional microtearing modes

Microtearing modes (MTMs) are suggested as a candidate for anomalous thermal transport in tokamak H-mode discharges. This study investigates MTMs in tokamak plasmas, employing simulations in the BOUT++ framework. It simplifies and linearizes the governing equations in detailed linear simulations. The study meticulously evaluates various conductivity models under diverse plasma conditions and collision regimes. The research thoroughly assesses different conductivity models across a range of plasma conditions and collision regimes. A unified dispersion relation that includes both MTM and Drift-Alfvén Wave (DAW) instabilities is derived, showing that DAW and MTM instabilities occur at varying distances from the rational surface. Specifically, MTMs become unstable near the rational surface but stabilize farther away, while drift-Alfvén instability appears farther from the rational surface. The study also re-derives MTM dispersion relations using Ohm's law and the vorticity equation, providing a thorough analysis of electromagnetic and electrostatic interactions in tokamaks. Global simulations demonstrate an inverse correlation between MTM growth rates and collisionality, and a direct correlation with temperature gradients. The nonalignment of the rational surface with the peak ω*e stabilizes the MTMs. Nonlinear simulations highlight electron temperature relaxation as the primary saturation mechanism for MTMs, with magnetic flutter identified as the dominant mode of electron thermal transport.

Fan, K. (ORCID:0000000227518809)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo using machine learning models

Here, this work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian inference often substitute computationally expensive high-fidelity models with machine learning models, thereby introducing approximation errors, our approach offers a computationally efficient alternative by augmenting high-fidelity models with low-fidelity ones within a hierarchical framework. The multilevel approach utilizes the low-fidelity machine learning model (MLM) for inexpensive evaluation of proposed samples thereby improving the acceptance of samples by the high-fidelity model. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from geometric multigrid hierarchy. We utilize an MLM to accelerate the coarse level sampling. Training machine learning model for the coarsest level significantly reduces the computational cost associated with generating training data and training the model. We present an MCMC algorithm to accelerate the coarsest level sampling using MLM and account for the approximation error introduced. We provide theoretical proofs of detailed balance and demonstrate that our multilevel approach constitutes a consistent MCMC algorithm. Additionally, we derive the expression for cost reduction due to machine learning model to facilitate cost analysis of the hierarchical sampling algorithm. Our technique is demonstrated on a standard benchmark inference problem in groundwater flow, where we estimate the probability density of a quantity of interest using a four-level MCMC algorithm. Our proposed algorithm accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two while achieving similar accuracy compared to sampling using the standard multilevel algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗