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At least 991 records · Page 55

Flight Performance Maneuver Planning for NASA’s X-57 “Maxwell” Flight Demonstrator – Part 2: Power-On Effects

Distributed Electric Propulsion technology as envisioned for NASA’s X-57 “Maxwell” flight demonstrator concept was designed to increase high-speed cruise efficiency compared to a combustion-powered general aviation baseline. A portion of this increased efficiency was due to beneficial aero-propulsive interaction inherent to the distributed propulsion architecture. The measure of the increase in efficiency between a conventional and distributed propulsion wing was to be determined by comparing flight test data from the electrically powered, conventional wing X-57 Mod II configuration to data obtained from the electrically powered, distributed propulsion wing X-57 Mod III/IV configuration. Flight test maneuvers that accommodate errors in instrumentation and the flight test environment were previously developed to establish the power-off drag characteristics for all X-57 configurations. In this paper, test points and maneuvers are evaluated to establish the installed and gross thrust that build upon the power-off drag estimates. Analysis of the proposed power-on maneuvers shows that the selected test points and measurement techniques could generate installed thrust estimates within 3-7% (at the 50% confidence level) of the actual values if each maneuver is conducted over a time period of 40 seconds.

Nicholas K Borer↗

Evaluation of Markerless Motion Capture for Monitoring Sensorimotor Performance

BACKGROUND Astronauts returning from long-duration exposure to microgravity frequently exhibit alterations in sensorimotor function leading to postural imbalance, impaired locomotion, and operational challenges to manual control. Mission duration and individual responses often influence both the severity of performance decrements and the variability in adaptation timelines. Postflight disruptions during functional tasks are often detected through body-worn inertial measurement unit (IMU) devices. While IMU sensors are relatively compact, the long-term wear may lead to discomfort, displacement of the sensors on the body, and restrictions in movement or crew behavior. Although IMU data offers valuable insights from a research standpoint, interpreting changes in pre- and post-flight measures can be difficult for crew support personnel beyond the research domain, which can hinder the application for medical assessments and rehabilitation. Finally, the availability of inertial sensors in-flight is limited. There is a need for unobtrusive monitoring tools to improve our ability to monitor adaptation following gravitational transitions in various postflight evaluations and rehabilitation settings. Markerless motion capture (MMC) is an evolving unobtrusive technology that builds upon decades of research with marker-based motion capture systems to provide 3D human pose estimation from multiple synchronized 2D camera views using deep learning algorithms. Markerless technology can revolutionize how data is captured pre- and post-flight and potentially in-flight during intravehicular activity by enabling pose estimation of multiple crew members from onboard camera hardware. METHODS The following presents the initial evaluation of a state-of-the-art commercial-off-the-shelf MMC system, Theia Markerless, compared to IMU devices during various ground-based functional tasks and environmental conditions. The featured functional tasks include assessments from Human Research Program (HRP) funded studies such as Sensorimotor Standard Measures and Sensorimotor Assessments. Synchronous data collected using both motion capture and IMUs are analyzed for six male and female subjects of varying anthropometry. The analysis includes limited assessments of clothing, capture volume configurations, and the tool's sensitivity to detecting performance changes after a spaceflight analog centrifuge exposure. The development of visualization tools to enhance the application of the pose estimation output is also presented. RESULTS Initial results demonstrate comparable root mean square error (RMSE) to existing literature evaluating markerless and marker-based motion capture systems. Considering the relative functional range of motion of the cervical spine, normalized error values for the markerless system’s accuracy of the head was 0.032 in pitch, 0.025 in roll, and 0.018 in yaw plane of motion across a subset of functional tasks. The raw RMSE values were 3.49, 2.25, and 2.81 degrees respectively. For the torso, results suggest normalized errors of 0.469 in pitch, 0.191 in roll, and 0.307 in yaw planes of motion and raw RMSE values of 3.52, 1.53, and 3.07 degrees respectively. The data suggests the functional demands of a particular task influences the estimation accuracy of the MMC system where more dynamic motion and cases where subjects are not upright may introduce diminished tracking accuracy. DISCUSSION The following work lays the foundation for future implementations leveraging markerless motion capture to assess the time course of recovery and provide insight for rehabilitation protocols to enhance crew readiness for the resumption of daily activities. These tools offer effective methods for anonymizing sensitive crew data, facilitating numerous applications across research, medical, and rehabilitation groups. Collaborations with the Anthropometry and Biomechanics Facility will provide further comparisons of the Markerless system to a marker-based system. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT</ This work is supported by NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate Mars Campaign Office Crew Health Countermeasures.

Hannah M. Weiss↗

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

Analysis and application of minimum variance discrete time system identification

An on-line minimum variance parameter identifier was developed which embodies both accuracy and computational efficiency. The new formulation resulted in a linear estimation problem with both additive and multiplicative noise. The resulting filter is shown to utilize both the covariance of the parameter vector itself and the covariance of the error in identification. It is proven that the identification filter is mean square covergent and mean square consistent. The MV parameter identification scheme is then used to construct a stable state and parameter estimation algorithm.

Kotob, S.↗

An analysis of ridge axis gravity roughness and spreading rate

Fast and slow spreading ridges have radically different morphologic and gravimetric characteristics. In this study, altimeter measurements from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission are used to investigate spreading rate dependence of the ridge axis gravity field. Gravity roughness provides an estimate of the amplitude of the gravity anomaly and is robust to small errors in the location of the ridge axis. Gravity roughness as a weighted root mean square of the vertical deflection at 438 ridge crossings on the mid-ocean ridge system is computed. Ridge axis gravity anomalies show a decrease in amplitude with increasing spreading rate up to an intermediate rate of about 60-80 mm/yr and almost no change at higher rates; overall the roughness decreases by a factor of 10 between the lowest and highest rates. In addition to the amplitude decrease, the range of roughness values observed at a given spreading rate shows a similar order of magnitude decrease with transition between 60 and 80 mm/yr. The transition of ridge axis gravity is most apparent at three relatively unexplored locations on the Southeast Indian Ridge and the Pacific-Antarctic Rise; on these intermediate rate ridges the transition occurs abruptly across transform faults.

Small, Christopher↗

A Bayesian approach to parameter and reliability estimation in the Poisson distribution.

For life testing procedures, a Bayesian analysis is developed with respect to a random intensity parameter in the Poisson distribution. Bayes estimators are derived for the Poisson parameter and the reliability function based on uniform and gamma prior distributions of that parameter. A Monte Carlo procedure is implemented to make possible an empirical mean-squared error comparison between Bayes and existing minimum variance unbiased, as well as maximum likelihood, estimators. As expected, the Bayes estimators have mean-squared errors that are appreciably smaller than those of the other two.

Canavos, G. C.↗

Testing relativistic gravity theories using radio tracking data from planetary orbiting spacecraft.

We present a thorough analysis of a computational method for determining the numerical values of the relativity and other related dynamical parameters using two-way Doppler and ranging data from planetary orbiting spacecraft. The computational method consists of two parts. From Doppler data we first determine the earth-planet components of the position of the orbiting spacecraft relative to the center of gravity of the planet to high accuracy; adding the observed spacecraft range yields a range value to the center of the planet. These constructed earth-planet range data, referred to as normal points, are then treated as raw data in a regression analysis combined with planetary radar delay and meridian circle measurements to solve for the significant solar system dynamical parameters. The major errors sources in the planetary orbiter process are enumerated and their individual effects on the overall accuracy of the normal point accuracies are presented. The accuracies of the parameter estimates as a function of time, data sampling, and a priori assumptions are illustrated.

Jordan, J. F.↗

GRAVSAT/GEOPAUSE covariance analysis including geopotential aliasing

A conventional covariance analysis for the GRAVSAT/GEOPAUSE mission is described in which the uncertainties of approximately 200 parameters, including the geopotential coefficients to degree and order 12, are estimated over three different tracking intervals. The estimated orbital uncertainties for both GRAVSAT and GEOPAUSE reach levels more accurate than presently available. The adjusted measurement bias errors approach the mission goal. Survey errors in the low centimeter range are achieved after ten days of tracking. The ability of the mission to obtain accuracies of geopotential terms to (12, 12) one to two orders of magnitude superior to present accuracy levels is clearly shown. A unique feature of this report is that the aliasing structure of this (12, 12) field is examined. It is shown that uncertainties for unadjusted terms to (12, 12) still exert a degrading effect upon the adjusted error of an arbitrarily selected term of lower degree and order. Finally, the distribution of the aliasing from the unestimated uncertainty of a particular high degree and order geopotential term upon the errors of all remaining adjusted terms is listed in detail.

Koch, D. W.↗

Surface chemistry of selected lunar regions

A completely new analysis has been carried out on the data from the Apollo 15 and 16 gamma-ray spectrometer experiments. The components of the continuum background have been estimated. The elements Th, K, Fe, and Mg give useful results; for Ti are significant only for a few high-Ti regions. Errors are given, and the results are checked by other methods. Concentrations are reported for about 60 lunar regions; the ground track has been subdivided in various ways. The borders of the maria seem well-defined chemically, while the distribution of KREEP is broad. This wide distribution requires emplacement of KREEP before the era of mare formation. Its high concentration in western mare soils seems to require major vertical mixing.

Bielefeld, M. J.↗

Evaluation of IGS Orbits with Satellite Laser Ranging

The accuracy with which orbits for the Global Positioning System (GPS) spacecraft, can be computed directly affects the accuracy of the resulting site coordinates and polar motion. Several groups routinely analyze GPS ground tracking data to compute precise orbits and terrestrial reference frame solutions. In this paper, we infer the accuracy of the orbits of two of the GPS satellites by comparing to independent laser ranges of subcentimeter accuracy obtained by a small but reasonably well distributed network of tracking sites. We find that all seven International GPS Service for Geodynamics (IGS) analysis centers achieve range residual root mean square (rms) errors at or below the 100 mm level. The best orbit solutions, from JPL, CODE, and the IGS combined product, yield a residual rms of about 50 mm. These residuals are consistent with three dimensional orbit errors of less than 150 mm. Estimating yaw rates for the spacecraft during shadow events, and using these estimates to compute the laser residual, significantly improves the fit. A small mean residual value of -15 to -30 mm seems to exist for most centers and laser sites which is not fully explained at present, but may be due to uncertainties in the corrections to the laser data, such as the reflector to spacecraft center of mass vector or small reference frame differences between the SLR sites and the GPS orbits.

Watkins, M. M.↗

Advanced Multimission Operations System (ATMO)

The HiiHat toolbox developed for CAT/ENVI provides principal investigators direct, immediate, flexible, and seamless interaction with their instruments and data from any location. Offering segmentation and neutral region division, it facilitates the discovery of key endmembers and regions of interest larger than a single pixel. Crucial to the analysis of hyperspectral data from Mars or Earth is the removal of unwanted atmospheric signatures. For Mars and the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM), residual atmospheric CO2 absorption is both directly problematic and indicative of processing errors with implications to the scientific utility of any particular image region. Estimating this residual error becomes key both in selecting regions of low distortion, and also to select mitigating methods, such as neutral region division. This innovation, the ATMO estimator, provides a simple, 0-1 normalized scalar that estimates this distortion (see figure). The metric is defined as the coefficient of determination of a quadratic fit in the region of distorting atmospheric absorption (approx 2 micron). This mimics the behavior of existing CRISM team mineralogical indices to estimate the presence of known, interesting mineral signatures. This facilitates the ATMO metric's assimilation into existing planetary geology workflows.

Mandrake, Lucas↗

A Dynamic Amplitude-Correcting Gradient Estimation Technique to Align X-ray Focusing Optics

High-brightness X-rays, as produced at synchrotrons and X-ray free electron laser (XFEL) facilities, are used to characterize materials in a variety of scientific experiments. In most cases, effective use of the high-energy light requires precisely-aligned focusing optics; one example being a compound refractive lens (CRL). To align a CRL, the position and rotation must be optimized along four axes. In practice, this is a labor-intensive, time-consuming manual process that can monopolize scarce experimental time at the necessary X-ray facilities. Models of the expected Xray transmission function suggest that this task can be automated; however, the temporally-varying intensity at X-ray free electron laser facilities preclude the direct use of standard implementations of optimization solvers such as steepest descent algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel technique to estimate the gradient of noisy functions with temporally-varying amplitudes. We construct this dynamicamplitude correction by systematically sampling a fixed central location within the standard finite difference stencil, accounting for the observed changes in time, and normalizing the difference quotients against those fluctuations. In addition to a rigorous error analysis of the sampling technique, we demonstrate its efficacy in stochastic descent optimization methods. Further, we demonstrate how this approach may be implemented to optimize X-ray focusing optics at synchrotrons or XFEL facilities

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis of vibration induced error in turbulence velocity measurements from an aircraft wing tip boom

The effect of rolling motion of a wing on the magnitude of error induced due to the wing vibration when measuring atmospheric turbulence with a wind probe mounted on the wing tip was investigated. The wing considered had characteristics similar to that of a B-57 Cambera aircraft, and Von Karman's cross spectrum function was used to estimate the cross-correlation of atmospheric turbulence. Although the error calculated was found to be less than that calculated when only elastic bendings and vertical motions of the wing are considered, it is still relatively large in the frequency's range close to the natural frequencies of the wing. Therefore, it is concluded that accelerometers mounted on the wing tip are needed to correct for this error, or the atmospheric velocity data must be appropriately filtered.

Akkari, S. H.↗

A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

Fox, George↗

Estimating Field-Level Perennial Bioenergy Grass Biomass Yields Using the Normalized Difference Red-Edge Index and Linear Regression Analysis for Central Virginia, USA

We investigated the indicative power of the normalized difference red-edge index (NDRE) for estimating field-level perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields utilizing Sentinel-2 imagery and a linear regression model as a rapid, cost-effective method for biomass yield estimations for bioenergy. We used 2019 data from three study sites containing mature perennial bioenergy grass stands in central Virginia, USA. Of the simulated daily NDRE values based on the temporally weighted averaging of two temporal neighbors, we found the strongest index–yield correlation on 11 August (R = 0.85). We estimated the perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields for (1) all sites using the data pooled from the three sites (all-site estimation) and (2) each site using the data pooled from the other two sites (cross-site estimation). The estimated field-level perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields strongly correlated with the recorded yields (average R2 = 0.76), with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.5 Mg/ha and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.2 Mg/ha for the all-site estimation. For the cross-site estimation, the site with diverse perennial grass types had the weakest correlation (R2 = 0.44) of the sites, indicating a difficulty in accounting for heterogeneous index–yield relationships in a single model. In addition to identifying a strong indicative power of the NDRE for estimating the overall perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields at a field level, the findings from this study call for an analysis across multiple perennial grasses and a comparison using multiple sites to understand (1) if the indicative power of the index shifts from the biomass of the specific perennial bioenergy grass type to the overall biomass during the growing season and (2) the level of perennial bioenergy grass heterogeneity that may hinder the remotely sensed biomass yield estimation using a single model.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Maximizing energy efficiency in wastewater treatment plants: A data-driven approach for waste heat recovery and an economic analysis using Organic Rankine Cycle and thermal energy storage

Maximizing energy efficiency through waste heat recovery (WHR) processes is crucial for sustainable and ecofriendly operations across multiple industries, notably in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). This work proposes a comprehensive approach for assessing the WHR feasibility in WWTPs, structured in two main objectives. Firstly, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is developed to accurately predict WHR based on operational data, including biogas temperature, biogas pressure, daily production in kWh, and WHR values in kWh th . The second objective focuses on economically evaluating the WHR feasibility based on the estimated WHR values obtained by the ANN model, and then realistically assessing the economic feasibility of integrating the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) and Seasonal Thermal Energy Storage (STES) systems. With an application to the As-Samra WWTP located in Jordan, the developed ANN model demonstrates promising results in the validation phase, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2206 kWh/day, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1674 kWh/day, and an R-squared (R 2 ) value of 68%. On the other hand, the economic analysis reveals that an optimal ORC system of 412.14 kW e capacity yields a Net Present Value (NPV) of 2.09 million US dollars, a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 0.0749 USD/kWh, a Payback Period (PBP) of 4.8 years, and annual revenues of 428 kUSD. This work also investigates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating ORC-STES. Results indicate that the LCOE and PBP are highly affected by the ORC's capital cost, and integrating STES increases the LCOE to 0.0824 USD/kWh, rendering its integration with ORC infeasible. In conclusion, this study aims to advance the understanding and application of WHR in WWTPs, paving the way for more efficient and sustainable practices in the field.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The structure and energetics of Cr(CO)6 and Cr(CO)5

The geometric structure of Cr(CO)6 is optimized at the modified coupled pair functional (MCPF), single and double excitation coupled-cluster (CCSD) and CCSD(T) levels of theory (including a perturbational estimate for connected triple excitations), and the force constants for the totally symmetric representation are determined. The geometry of Cr(CO)5 is partially optimized at the MCPF, CCSD, and CCSD(T) levels of theory. Comparison with experimental data shows that the CCSD(T) method gives the best results for the structures and force constants, and that remaining errors are probably due to deficiencies in the one-particle basis sets used for CO. The total binding energies of Cr(CO)6 and Cr(CO)5 are also determined at the MCPF, CCSD, and CCSD(T) levels of theory. The CCSD(T) method gives a much larger total binding energy than either the MCPF or CCSD methods. An analysis of the basis set superposition error (BSSE) at the MCPF level of treatment points out limitations in the one-particle basis used. Calculations using larger basis sets reduce the BSSE, but the total binding energy of Cr(CO)6 is still significantly smaller than the experimental value, although the first CO bond dissociation energy of Cr(CO)6 is well described. An investigation of 3s3p correlation reveals only a small effect. In the largest basis set, the total CO binding energy of Cr(CO)6 is estimated to be 140 kcal/mol at the CCSD(T) level of theory, or about 86 percent of the experimental value. The remaining discrepancy between the experimental and theoretical value is probably due to limitations in the one-particle basis, rather than limitations in the correlation treatment. In particular an additional d function and an f function on each C and O are needed to obtain quantitative results. This is underscored by the fact that even using a very large primitive set (1042 primitive functions contracted to 300 basis functions), the superposition error for the total binding energy of Cr(CO)6 is 22 kcal/mol at the MCPF level of treatment.

Barnes, Leslie A.↗

Evaluating Cloud Feedback Components in Observations and Their Representation in Climate Models

This study quantifies the contribution of individual cloud feedbacks to the total short-term cloud feedback in satellite observations over the period 2002–2014 and evaluates how they are represented in climate models. The observed positive total cloud feedback is primarily due to positive high-cloud altitude, extratropical high- and low-cloud optical depth, and land cloud amount feedbacks partially offset by negative tropical marine low-cloud feedback. Seventeen models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are analyzed. The models generally reproduce the observed moderate positive short-term cloud feedback. However, compared to satellite estimates, the models are systematically high-biased in tropical marine low-cloud and land cloud amount feedbacks and systematically low-biased in high-cloud altitude and extratropical high- and low-cloud optical depth feedbacks. Errors in modeled short-term cloud feedback components identified in this analysis highlight the need for improvements in model simulations of the response of high clouds and tropical marine low clouds. Our results suggest that skill in simulating interannual cloud feedback components may not indicate skill in simulating long-term cloud feedback components.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗