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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Deep Learning Models for Climate-Related Natural Disaster Detection from UAV Images and Remote Sensing Data

This research study utilized artificial intelligence (AI) to detect natural disasters from aerial images. Flooding and desertification were two natural disasters taken into consideration. The Climate Change Dataset was created by compiling various open-access data sources. This dataset contains 6334 aerial images from UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles) images and satellite images. The Climate Change Dataset was then used to train Deep Learning (DL) models to identify natural disasters. Four different Machine Learning (ML) models were used: convolutional neural network (CNN), DenseNet201, VGG16, and ResNet50. These ML models were trained on our Climate Change Dataset so that their performance could be compared. DenseNet201 was chosen for optimization. All four ML models performed well. DenseNet201 and ResNet50 achieved the highest testing accuracies of 99.37% and 99.21%, respectively. This research project demonstrates the potential of AI to address environmental challenges, such as climate change-related natural disasters. This study’s approach is novel by creating a new dataset, optimizing an ML model, cross-validating, and presenting desertification as one of our natural disasters for DL detection. Three categories were used (Flooded, Desert, Neither). Our study relates to AI for Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability. Drone emergency response would be a practical application for our research project.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying geologic characteristics and operational decisions to meet global carbon sequestration goals

Geologic carbon sequestration is the process of injecting and storing CO 2 in subsurface reservoirs and is an essential technology for global environmental security (e.g., climate change mitigation) and economic security (e.g., CO 2 tax credits). To meet energy, economic, and environmental goals, society will have to identify vast volumes of high-capacity, low-cost, and viable storage reservoirs for sequestering CO 2 . In turn, this requires understanding how major geologic characteristics (such as reservoir depth, thickness, permeability, porosity, and temperature) and design and operational decisions (such as injection well spacing) impact CO 2 injection rates, storage capacity, and economics. Although many numerical simulation tools exist, they cannot repeat the required thousands or millions of simulations to identify ideal reservoir properties and the sensitivity and interaction between geologic parameters and operational decisions. Here, we use SCO 2 T—a fast-running, reduced-order modeling framework—to explore the sensitivity of major geologic parameters and operational decisions to engineering (CO 2 injection rates, plume dimensions, and storage capacities and effectiveness) and costs. Our results show, for the first time, benefits and impacts such as allowing CO 2 plumes to overlap, how different well spacing patterns affect CO 2 sequestration, the effects on costs of including brine treatment and disposal, and the effect of restricting injection rates to 1 MtCO 2 per y based on well limitations. We reveal multiple novel and unintuitive findings including: (i) deeper reservoirs have reduced carbon sequestration costs until injection rates reach 1 MtCO 2 per y, at which point deeper reservoirs become more expensive, (ii) thicker formations allow for increased injection rates and storage capacity, but thickness barely impacts plume areas, (iii) higher geothermal gradients result in reduced sequestration costs, unless brine treatment/disposal costs are included, at which point reservoirs having lower geothermal gradients are more economical because they produce less brine for each unit of injected CO 2 , and (iv) allowing plumes to overlap has a significantly positive impact of increasing storage capacities but has only a small influence on reducing sequestration costs. Altogether, our results illustrate new scientific conclusions to help identify suitable sites to inject and store CO 2 , to help understand the complex interaction between geology and resulting costs, and to help support the pursuit of meeting global sequestration targets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermoelectric air conditioning undergarment for personal thermal management and HVAC energy saving

Personal thermal management systems (PTMS) are highly desirable for improving individual thermal comfort and reducing indoor HVAC energy consumption. Although there have been many attempts in developing PTMS, existing PTMS are generally bulky, heavy or immobile. Besides, previous analysis on additional personal cooling and heating power required for maintaining thermal comfort in changing environments did not consider the individual difference in metabolism and the variability of comfort skin temperature with environmental conditions. In this paper, we report on the development of a novel lightweight (<1 kg) thermoelectric air conditioning undergarment system with a preferred design of branching tubing network (branching angle of 60° and diameter ratio of 0.782) for air distribution. Through thermal manikin and human subject tests, we demonstrated that the novel system is capable of providing a maximum of 15.5 W of personal cooling and 18.1 W personal heating with a coefficient of performance (COP) greater than 0.4, which is sufficient to the expansion of the indoor set-points by at least 2.2 °C (4 °F) on both sides without compromising thermal comfort and the potential saving of about 15% HVAC energy. Furthermore, our study improved the understanding of the required additional personal cooling and heating power for changing environmental conditions, which are essential guidelines for the further development of PTMS.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Shifts in Vegetation Phenology on the Carbon Balance of a Semiarid Sagebrush Ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems are critical in regulating the interannual variability of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. The responses of such ecosystems to weather and environmental conditions remain important factors that limit the accurate projections of carbon balance under future climate change. Here, we investigated how shifts in vegetation phenology resulting from changes in weather and environmental conditions influenced ecosystem carbon cycling in one semiarid ecosystem in the Hanford area of central Washington, United States. We examined two years of measurements of the phenology camera, eddy covariance, and soil chamber from an upland semiarid sagebrush ecosystem. Both years had contrasting diel and seasonal patterns of CO 2 fluxes, primarily driven by differences in vegetation phenology. The net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) in 2019 were enlarged by shifted vegetation phenology, as a cold and snow-covered winter and warm and dry winter in 2020 resulted in constrained magnitudes of NEE and ET during the summer months. The annual gross primary productivity (GPP) was much higher in 2019 than in 2020 (-211 vs. -112 gC m -2 ), whereas ecosystem respiration was comparable in these two years (164 vs. 144 gC m -2 ). Thus, the annual NEE in 2019 was negative (-47 gC m -2 ) with the sagebrush ecosystem functioning as a carbon sink, while the positive annual NEE in 2020 indicated that the sagebrush ecosystem functioned as a carbon source. Our results demonstrate that winter snowpack can be a critical driver of annual carbon uptake in semiarid sagebrush ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Fractals and Spatial Methods for Mining Remote Sensing Imagery

The rapid increase in digital remote sensing and GIS data raises a critical problem -- how can such an enormous amount of data be handled and analyzed so that useful information can be derived quickly? Efficient handling and analysis of large spatial data sets is central to environmental research, particularly in global change studies that employ time series. Advances in large-scale environmental monitoring and modeling require not only high-quality data, but also reliable tools to analyze the various types of data. A major difficulty facing geographers and environmental scientists in environmental assessment and monitoring is that spatial analytical tools are not easily accessible. Although many spatial techniques have been described recently in the literature, they are typically presented in an analytical form and are difficult to transform to a numerical algorithm. Moreover, these spatial techniques are not necessarily designed for remote sensing and GIS applications, and research must be conducted to examine their applicability and effectiveness in different types of environmental applications. This poses a chicken-and-egg problem: on one hand we need more research to examine the usability of the newer techniques and tools, yet on the other hand, this type of research is difficult to conduct if the tools to be explored are not accessible. Another problem that is fundamental to environmental research are issues related to spatial scale. The scale issue is especially acute in the context of global change studies because of the need to integrate remote-sensing and other spatial data that are collected at different scales and resolutions. Extrapolation of results across broad spatial scales remains the most difficult problem in global environmental research. There is a need for basic characterization of the effects of scale on image data, and the techniques used to measure these effects must be developed and implemented to allow for a multiple scale assessment of the data before any useful process-oriented modeling involving scale-dependent data can be conducted. Through the support of research grants from NASA, we have developed a software module called ICAMS (Image Characterization And Modeling System) to address the need to develop innovative spatial techniques and make them available to the broader scientific communities. ICAMS provides new spatial techniques, such as fractal analysis, geostatistical functions, and multiscale analysis that are not easily available in commercial GIS/image processing software. By bundling newer spatial methods in a user-friendly software module, researchers can begin to test and experiment with the new spatial analysis methods and they can gauge scale effects using a variety of remote sensing imagery. In the following, we describe briefly the development of ICAMS and present application examples.

Lam, Nina↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ohio River Basin Water Resources: Monitoring Flash Drought Potential and Quantifying the Hydrologic Impacts in the Ohio River Basin

Flash drought conditions emerge in a matter of weeks following persistent weather anomalies, such as high temperatures or large vapor pressure deficits, that drive increased evaporative demand. Vegetation response rapidly depletes soil moisture, threatening surface water supplies, triggering significant crop loss, and increasing wildfire risk. Drought indices sensitive to flash drought are currently not included in drought forecast models in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). The team assessed and compared drought indices, gauge-based data, and satellite measurements over the course of the September 2019 flash drought event in the Ohio River Basin to investigate environmental fingerprints throughout flash drought evolution. Potential leading flash drought indicators were compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to aid the National Weather Service (NWS) Ohio River Forecast Center and Kentucky Climate Center in producing early warning flash drought forecasts. These drought indices included Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI) (derived from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Drought index behavior inherently varies based on parameters incorporated - EDDI measures evaporative demand through potential evapotranspiration, and demonstrates more variations due to sensitivity to seasonal changes in evaporative demand throughout the 2010-2019 study period. Conversely, LERI measures evaporative response through actual evapotranspiration, representing different environmental changes. Soil moisture response was evaluated using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band radiometer data and Kentucky Mesonet gauge-based measurements. This analysis enables climatologists and weather forecasters to keep decision-makers and stakeholders better informed about drought risks, and to implement the appropriate actions for preparation of drought onset.

Adelaide Schmid↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Systematic Evidence Based Performance Approach to Regulation of Nuclear Sites in England and Wales - 20058

The Environment Agency for England has developed a systematic evidence-based approach to pursue our strategic environmental objectives for the regulation of nuclear sites. We use an annual evidence review process to ensure effective and efficient targeting of limited resources to achieve those objectives. Over the last 8 years, we have been developing and refining this approach to ensure risk-based and value driven regulation. The approach comprises nuclear site and nuclear sector review processes known as Site Environment Review (SER) and Nuclear Environment Review (NER). This approach complements our regulation of nuclear site permit holders under the Environmental Permitting Regulations (EPR). We deliver our regulation of nuclear sites in England and Wales alongside the Office for Nuclear Regulation. The SER process involves the lead regulator for each nuclear site assessing the permit holder's environmental performance across 14 themes, set within the context of the site's main activities and associated waste disposals. Our themes include environmental leadership, resources and climate change, radioactive waste management, facility management and decommissioning, groundwater, and environmental radiological protection. We use evidence from site inspections and working within our subject matter groups to grade current and predicted future environmental performance. We are particularly interested in sustainability and the application of Best Available Techniques (BAT) to prevent the creation, and minimise the disposal, of radioactive wastes. We use risk analysis (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) to examine performance against our strategic environmental objectives, which are set out, in our 5-year Nuclear Delivery Plan (NDP). The output supports the targeting of our resources at each nuclear site. We consult the relevant permit holders on the SER priorities and use their feedback to refine our plans. We expect all permit holders to take account of our priorities when considering their own programmes of work, objectives and plans. The NER process brings together what we learn and achieve through regulation across the sector. It provides input to planning priorities, supported by qualitative and semi-quantitative evidence. It covers the 28 nuclear sites in England and Wales and spans the same 14 environmental themes. During the process we collate, compile and summarise evidence from the SERs and other sources such as inspection reports and evidence from our other nuclear work programmes. The output is the NER annual report. This provides a snapshot of the status of the nuclear sector and gives insights to enable us to regulate more efficiently and effectively. It also takes account of cross-cutting issues and risks such as changes in international standards, domestic policy, regulatory framework, domestic standards and guidance, learning from experience such as incidents, events and good practice, and innovation, research and development. It provides graphics that illustrate the grading of environmental performance for the nuclear sector across the fourteen environmental themes. This analysis allows benchmarking of nuclear site's environmental performance and the visualisation provides a convenient comparison of performance across themes, sites, and over time. We use this intelligence to inform our investment in training and development of our staff, and our cross-cutting engagement on strategic issues with government, the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) and other corporate organisations. Adopting this approach can provide benefits with organisational reputation, stakeholder participation and ensuring value from the public investment. This paper describes the history of the SER/NER process, a selection of outputs from the process and ideas for improvement. The paper will be of interest to other regulators and organisations across the world that are interested in supporting continuous improvement. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ohio River Basin Water Resources: Monitoring Flash Drought Potential and Quantifying the Hydrologic Impacts in the Ohio River Basin Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

Flash drought conditions emerge in a matter of weeks following persistent weather anomalies, such as high temperatures or large vapor pressure deficits, that drive increased evaporative demand. Vegetation response rapidly depletes soil moisture, threatening surface water supplies, triggering significant crop loss, and increasing wildfire risk. Drought indices sensitive to flash drought are currently not included in drought forecast models in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). The team assessed and compared drought indices, gauge-based data, and satellite measurements over the course of the September 2019 flash drought event in the Ohio River Basin to investigate environmental fingerprints throughout flash drought evolution. Potential leading flash drought indicators were compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to aid the National Weather Service (NWS) Ohio River Forecast Center and Kentucky Climate Center in producing early warning flash drought forecasts. These drought indices included Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI) (derived from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Drought index behavior inherently varies based on parameters incorporated -EDDI measures evaporative demand through potential evapotranspiration, and and demonstrates more variations due to sensitivity to seasonal changes in evaporative demand throughout the 2010-2019 study period. Conversely, LERI measures evaporative response through actual evapotranspiration, representing different environmental changes. Soil moisture response was evaluated using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band radiometer data and Kentucky Mesonet gauge-based measurements. This analysis enables climatologists and weather forecasters to keep decision-makers and stakeholders better informed about drought risks to implement the appropriate actions for preparation of drought onset.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2014

Constraints and Potentials of Future Irrigation Water Availability on Agricultural Production Under Climate Change

Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS1993

Extraction of auxiliary data from AVIRIS distribution tape for spectral, radiometric, and geometric quality assessment

Remotely sensed data are affected by system (sensor and platform), and scene related effects. For quantitative investigations the spectral, radiometric characteristics of the system and scene have to be known. The relevant effects and their possible influence on an image have to be specifically determined for every remote sensing system and adequate description parameters need to be updated and reported on a regular basis as they are carried out, e.g., for the AVIRIS system. It is evident that the strength of the influence of similar effects in very dependent on the accessibility of auxiliary information about such sensor systems. Degradation in a spaceborne system can normally be just reported and cannot be corrected. In contrast, an airborne sensor can be evaluated, maintained and improved periodically. Such maintenance efforts are particularly important because airborne systems are exposed to extreme and changing environments. These include tens of takeoffs and landing each year as well as extreme changes in temperature and humidity on the tarmac and in flight. For the AVIRIS system there are environmental stresses such as changes in temperature, air pressure, humidity, vibration of the platform or scene-related reasons like atmospheric conditions, and topography. The information contained in the auxiliary files included with the AVIRIS data can be used to assess these effects and compensate for them. In addition the spectral, radiometer and geometric calibration data contained in the auxiliary file are required for quantitative analysis of the data. The paper describes tools to access the auxiliary information that characterizes the AVIRIS system. These tools allow the examination of parameters that may impact the quality of the measured AVIRIS image. An example of the use of this auxiliary data was carried out with regard to a parametric geocoding approach. Emphasis is placed on the reported auxiliary information that describes the geometric character of the AVIRIS data in 1991. Results are presented using data from the AVIRIS flight #910705, run 6 and 7 of the NASA MAC Europe 1991 campaign in a test site in Central Switzerland.

Meyer, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Micro-Environmental Conditions of Urban Agrivoltaics: Advancing Sustainable Green Spaces and Agriculture in Temperate Cities

Agrivoltaics, the integrated land use combining renewable energy production and agriculture, can potentially address key challenges faced by urban communities, including limited access to vacant land, fresh produce, and electricity. However, urban agrivoltaics has rarely been considered a viable solution, primarily due to a lack of experimental systems demonstrating the functionality of urban food production or green spaces alongside solar energy production. To evaluate the potential of solar photovoltaics to help mitigate heat stress on urban agriculture and green spaces in a temperate climate, we examined the microclimatic changes introduced by an urban agrivoltaics system (UrAV) when combined with vegetable crops and turfgrass, respectively. Accordingly, we installed an experimental setup instrumented with environmental sensors to compare full-sun conditions with those of an agrivoltaics system designed for urban environments. We found minimal differences for both land cover types between the control and agrivoltaics sites in air and soil temperature. However, during periods of intensified summer heat, temperatures beneath the panels cooled due to reductions in wind speed and relative humidity, which impeded the movement of hot, moist air and reduced reference evapotranspiration. Further, soil moisture in UrAV was highly spatially heterogeneous, influenced by the layout of the photovoltaic panels and their support structure, which redistributed rainfall and controlled where solar radiation could penetrate and drive evapotranspiration. Overall, our results suggest that PV-induced environmental changes in temperate climates are compatible with cultivating turfgrass or appropriate crops. These findings can help planners and designers integrate agrivoltaics into community gardens, farms, and green spaces in temperate cities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 9: Perspectives on a City in a Changing Climate 2008-2018

Cities experience multiple environmental shifts, stresses, and shocks—such as air and water pollution—and a variety of extreme events simultaneously and continuously. Current urban programs have focused on limiting the impacts of these conditions through a portfolio of multifaceted strategies, such as regulations and codes, management and restoration projects, and citizen engagement. Global climate change represents a new environmental dynamic to which cities now have to respond. While global climate change by definition has impacts world wide, residents and managers of cities, like New York, typically perceive changes in their own local environments. In most cities, temperature is warming with increasingly hotter and longer heatwaves, and heavier downpours are leading to more frequent inland flooding. In coastal cities, sea levels are rising, exacerbating coastal flooding. Analyzing and understanding the impacts of climate change on cities is important because of the dramatic growth in urban populations throughout the world. An estimated nearly 4.0 billion people reside in urban areas, accounting for 52% of the world’s population (UN, 2017). That percentage will increase dramatically in the coming decades as almost all of the growth to take place up to 2050 will be in urban areas (UN, 2017). The New York City metropolitan region (NYMR)—the five boroughs (equivalent to counties) of New York City and the adjacent 26 counties in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut—is an ideal model of an urban agglomeration. Approximately 8.6 million people live in the five boroughs and more than 15 million people live in the neighboring smaller cities, towns, and villages (City of New York, 2018a; US Census, 2017). The population of the five boroughs is projected to add 1 million people by 2030, while the total region is projected to reach 26.1 million (NYTC, 2015).

Solecki, William↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.

The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diverging drivers of fungal diversity: seasonal effects shape aboveground communities, while geographical patterns govern belowground communities in rubber tree ecosystems

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of microbial communities is essential for predicting their ecological roles and interactions with host plants. In a recent study, Wei and colleagues (Microbiol Spectr 13:e02097-24, 2024) investigated fungal diversity across multiple plant and soil compartments in rubber trees over two seasons and two geographically distinct regions in China. Their findings revealed that alpha diversity was primarily influenced by seasonal changes and physicochemical factors, while beta diversity exhibited a strong geographical pattern, shaped by leaf phosphorus and soil available potassium. These results highlight the role of environmental drivers in shaping within-community diversity, while other factors contribute to the differences between fungal communities across the soil–plant continuum. By distinguishing the effects of temporal and spatial factors, this study provides detailed insights into plant-associated microbiomes and emphasizes the need for further research on the functional implications of microbial diversity in the context of changing environmental and agricultural conditions.

fungal diversity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate-driven succession in marine microbiome biodiversity and biogeochemical function

Abstract Seasonal and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warming result in similar ocean changes as predicted with climate change. Climate-driven environmental cycles have strong impacts on microbiome diversity, but impacts on microbiome function are poorly understood. Here we quantify changes in microbial genomic diversity and functioning over 11 years covering seasonal and ENSO cycles at a coastal site in the southern California Current. We observe seasonal oscillations between large-genome lineages during cold, nutrient rich conditions in winter and spring versus small-genome lineages, including Prochlorococcus and Pelagibacter , in summer and fall. Parallel interannual changes separate communities depending on ENSO condition. Biodiversity shifts translate into clear oscillations in microbiome functional potential. Ocean warming induced an ecosystem with less iron but more macronutrient stress genes, depressed organic carbon degradation potential and biomass, and elevated carbon-to-nutrient biomass ratios. The consistent microbial response observed across time-scales points towards large climate-driven changes in marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles.

Larkin, Alyse A. (ORCID:0000000344660791)↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy

Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries’ potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation’s producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗