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At least 991 records · Page 55

The European Russia Drought Atlas (1400-2016 CE)

We present the European Russia Drought Atlas (ERDA) that covers the East European Plain to the Ural Mountains from 1400–2016 CE. Like the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) for the Euro-Mediterranean region, the ERDA is a one-half degree gridded reconstruction of summer Palmer Drought Severity Indices estimated from a network of annual tree-ring chronologies. Ensemble point-by-point regression is used to generate the ERDA with the identical protocols used for developing the OWDA. Split calibration/validation tests of the ERDA indicate that it has significant skill over most of its domain and is much more skillful than the OWDA where they overlap in the western part of ERDA domain. Comparisons to historical droughts over European Russia additionally support the ERDA’s overall validity. The ERDA has been spatially smoothed and infilled using a local regression method to yield a spatially complete drought atlas back to 1400 CE. EOF analysis indicates that there are three principal modes of hydroclimatic variability in the ERDA. After Varimax rotation, these modes correlate significantly with independent climate data sets extending back to the late nineteenth century in a physically interpretable way and relate to atmospheric circulation dynamics of droughts and heatwaves over European Russia based on more recent instrumental data.

Cook, Edward R.↗

Finite temperature properties of uranium mononitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a promising nuclear fuel that combines the advantageous properties of readily used UO 2 and uranium alloys, such as high melting temperature and high uranium density, and thermal conductivity, respectively. A better understanding of UN behavior at operating temperatures can be obtained from finite temperature data, such as elastic properties. To get this information, ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations were performed at five different temperatures using constant volume (NVT) and constant pressure (NPT) ensembles. Initially, the performance of PBE functional in reproducing experimental crystallographic properties and magnetic ordering is assessed. The finite temperature phonon dispersions are calculated using NVT simulation results, which show a softening of the phonon modes with increasing temperature. The NPT results are used to obtain the thermal expansion of UN and finite temperature electronic properties. The calculated thermal expansion is compared with our measurements using neutron diffraction. Additionally, the temperature dependent elastic properties of UN are evaluated using the strain-stress method in AIMD simulations, indicating that UN becomes softer and more compressible with increasing temperature. Also, the calculated Young’s modulus slope is in very good agreement with the experiment. The finite temperature heat capacity and electronic thermal conductivity are calculated from AIMD simulations, which are in better agreement with the experiment than the heat capacity and thermal conductivity calculated using the structures relaxed at 0K. Finally, the thermal diffusivity from AIMD has opposite temperature dependence compared to experimental results, which we argued comes from the underestimated electronic thermal conductivity.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Geophysical Retrievals in an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Framework for Illuminating Processes Controlling Water Cycle

Focal Area(s): This white paper responds to Focal Area #3: Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses the water-cycle and data-model integration grand challenge. It leverages data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility, and Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE), and Science Focus Area (SFA). The white paper focuses on controlling cloud, precipitation, and radiative properties as observed and simulated by the Earth System Models (ESM). The described framework can be readily applied to any other ensemble of instruments, including satellites and other ground-based networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of the vortex length scale and intensity from two-dimensional samples

A method is proposed for estimating flow features that influence flame wrinkling in reciprocating internal combustion engines, where traditional statistical measures of turbulence are suspect. Candidate methods were tested in a computed channel flow where traditional turbulence measures are valid and performance can be rationally evaluated. Two concepts are tested. First, spatial filtering is applied to the two-dimensional velocity distribution and found to reveal structures corresponding to the vorticity field. Decreasing the spatial-frequency cutoff of the filter locally changes the character and size of the flow structures that are revealed by the filter. Second, vortex length scale and intensity is estimated by computing the ensemble-average velocity distribution conditionally sampled on the vorticity peaks. The resulting conditionally sampled 'average vortex' has a peak velocity less than half the rms velocity and a size approximately equal to the two-point-correlation integral-length scale.

Reuss, D. L.↗

Autocalibration of the E3SM Version 2 Atmosphere Model Using a PCA-Based Surrogate for Spatial Fields

Global Climate Model tuning (calibration) is a tedious and time-consuming process, with high-dimensional input and output fields. Experts typically tune by iteratively running climate simulations with hand-picked values of tuning parameters. Many, in both the statistical and climate literature, have proposed alternative calibration methods, but most are impractical or difficult to implement. We present a practical, robust, and rigorous calibration approach on the atmosphere-only model of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. Our approach can be summarized into two main parts: (a) the training of a surrogate that predicts E3SM output in a fraction of the time compared to running E3SM, and (b) gradient-based parameter optimization. To train the surrogate, we generate a set of designed ensemble runs that span our input parameter space and use polynomial chaos expansions on a reduced output space to fit the E3SM output. We use this surrogate in an optimization scheme to identify values of the input parameters for which our model best matches gridded spatial fields of climate observations. To validate our choice of parameters, we run E3SMv2 with the optimal parameter values and compare prediction results to expertly-tuned simulations across 45 different output fields. This flexible, robust, and automated approach is straightforward to implement, and we demonstrate that the resulting model output matches present day climate observations as well or better than the corresponding output from expert tuned parameter values, while considering high-dimensional output and operating in a fraction of the time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Molecular-dynamics simulation methods for macromolecular crystallography

It is investigated whether molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations can be used to enhance macromolecular crystallography (MX) studies. Historically, protein crystal structures have been described using a single set of atomic coordinates. Because conformational variation is important for protein function, researchers now often build models that contain multiple structures. Methods for building such models can fail, however, in regions where the crystallographic density is difficult to interpret, for example at the protein–solvent interface. To address this limitation, a set of MD–MX methods that combine MD simulations of protein crystals with conventional modeling and refinement tools have been developed. In an application to a cyclic adenosine monophosphate-dependent protein kinase at room temperature, the procedure improved the interpretation of ambiguous density, yielding an alternative water model and a revised protein model including multiple conformations. The revised model provides mechanistic insights into the catalytic and regulatory interactions of the enzyme. The same methods may be used in other MX studies to seek mechanistic insights.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Downscaling atmospheric chemistry simulations with physically consistent deep learning

Abstract. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network (CNN)-based super resolution can be used to downscale atmospheric chemistry simulations with substantially higher accuracy than conventional downscaling methods. This work both demonstrates the downscaling capabilities of modern CNN-based single image super resolution and video super-resolution schemes and develops modifications to these schemes to ensure they are appropriate for use with physical science data. The CNN-based video super-resolution schemes in particular incur only 39 % to 54 % of the grid-cell-level error of interpolation schemes and generate outputs with extremely realistic small-scale variability based on multiple perceptual quality metrics while performing a large (8×10) increase in resolution in the spatial dimensions. Methods are introduced to strictly enforce physical conservation laws within CNNs, perform large and asymmetric resolution changes between common model grid resolutions, account for non-uniform grid-cell areas, super-resolve lognormally distributed datasets, and leverage additional inputs such as high-resolution climatologies and model state variables. High-resolution chemistry simulations are critical for modeling regional air quality and for understanding future climate, and CNN-based downscaling has the potential to generate these high-resolution simulations and ensembles at a fraction of the computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground‐based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010‐2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Morin, Cory↗

The NANOGrav 11 yr data set: Evolution of Gravitational-wave Background Statistics

An ensemble of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries should produce a stochastic background of very low frequency gravitational waves. This stochastic background is predicted to be a power law, with a gravitational-wave strain spectral index of −2/3, and it should be detectable by a network of precisely timed millisecond pulsars, widely distributed on the sky. This paper reports a new “time slicing” analysis of the 11 yr data release from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) using 34 millisecond pulsars. Methods to flag potential “false-positive” signatures are developed, including techniques to identify responsible pulsars. Mitigation strategies are then presented. We demonstrate how an incorrect noise model can lead to spurious signals, and we show how independently modeling noise across 30 Fourier components, spanning NANOGrav’s frequency range, effectively diagnoses and absorbs the excess power in gravitational-wave searches. This results in a nominal, and expected, progression of our gravitational-wave statistics. Additionally, we show that the first interstellar medium event in PSR J1713+0747 pollutes the common red-noise process with low spectral index noise, and we use a tailored noise model to remove these effects.

J S Hazboun↗

Persistent Homology Metrics Reveal Quantum Fluctuations and Reactive Atoms in Path Integral Dynamics

Nuclear quantum effects (NQEs) are known to impact a number of features associated with chemical reactivity and physicochemical properties, particularly for light atoms and at low temperatures. In the imaginary time path integral formalism, each atom is mapped onto a “ring polymer” whose spread is related to the quantum mechanical uncertainty in the particle’s position, i.e., its thermal wavelength. A number of metrics have previously been used to investigate and characterize this spread and explain effects arising from quantum delocalization, zero-point energy, and tunneling. Many of these shape metrics consider just the instantaneous structure of the ring polymers. However, given the significant interest in methods such as centroid molecular dynamics and ring polymer molecular dynamics that link the molecular dynamics of these ring polymers to real time properties, there exists significant opportunity to exploit metrics that also allow for the study of the fluctuations of the atom delocalization in time. Here we consider the ring polymer delocalization from the perspective of computational topology, specifically persistent homology, which describes the 3-dimensional arrangement of point cloud data, (i.e. atomic positions). We employ the Betti sequence probability distribution to define the ensemble of shapes adopted by the ring polymer. The Wasserstein distances of Betti sequences adjacent in time are used to characterize fluctuations in shape, where the Fourier transform and associated principal components provides added information differentiating atoms with different NQEs based on their dynamic properties. We demonstrate this methodology on two representative systems, a glassy system consisting of two atom types with dramatically different de Broglie thermal wavelengths, and ab initio molecular dynamics simulation of an aqueous 4 M HCl solution where the H-atoms are differentiated based on their participation in proton transfer reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Syndrome-source-coding and its universal generalization

A method of using error-correcting codes to obtain data compression, called syndrome-source-coding, is described in which the source sequence is treated as an error pattern whose syndrome forms the compressed data. It is shown that syndrome-source-coding can achieve arbitrarily small distortion with the number of compressed digits per source digit arbitrarily close to the entropy of a binary memoryless source. A 'universal' generalization of syndrome-source-coding is formulated which provides robustly effective distortionless coding of source ensembles. Two examples are given, comparing the performance of noiseless universal syndrome-source-coding to (1) run-length coding and (2) Lynch-Davisson-Schalkwijk-Cover universal coding for an ensemble of binary memoryless sources.

Ancheta, T. C., Jr.↗

Quantal diffusion approach for multinucleon transfer processes in the 58,64 Ni + 208 Pb reactions: Toward the production of unknown neutron-rich nuclei

In recent years, substantial efforts have been made for the study of multinucleon transfer reactions at energies around the Coulomb barrier both experimentally and theoretically, aiming at the production of unknown neutron-rich heavy nuclei. It is crucial to provide reliable theoretical predictions based on microscopic theories with sufficient predictive power. Purpose: This article aims to clarify the applicability of the quantal diffusion approach based on the stochastic mean-field (SMF) theory for multinucleon transfer processes. Isotope production cross sections are evaluated for the reactions of 64 Ni + 208 Pb at E c.m. = 268 MeV and 58 Ni + 208 Pb at E c.m. = 270 MeV and are compared with available experimental data. Methods: Three-dimensional time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) calculations are carried out for a range of initial orbital angular momenta with Skyrme SLy4d functional. Quantal diffusion equations, derived based on the SMF theory, for variances and covariance of neutron and proton numbers of reaction products are solved, with microscopic drift and diffusion coefficients obtained from time evolution of occupied single-particle orbitals in TDHF. Secondary de-excitation processes, both particle evaporation and fission, are simulated by a statistical compound-nucleus de-excitation model, gemini++. Dynamics of a fast isospin equilibration process followed by a slow drift toward the mass symmetry are commonly observed, as expected. Various reaction outcomes are evaluated, including average mass and charge numbers of reaction products, total kinetic energy loss (TKEL), scattering angle, contact time, and production cross sections for primary and secondary products. By comparing with the experimental data, we find that SMF and TDHF quantitatively reproduce experimental data for few-nucleon-transfer channels around the average values. In contrast, for many-nucleon-transfer channels, we find that the SMF approach provides much better description of the experimentally measured isotopic distributions. The results underline the importance of beyond-mean-field effects, especially one-body (mean-field) fluctuations and correlations, in describing multinucleon transfer processes. Moreover, through a combined analysis of SMF with a statistical model, gemini++, we find a significant contribution of transfer-induced fission, which is consistent with the experimental observation. In some cases, the SMF approach overestimates the isotopic width, requiring further improvements of the theoretical description. Possible ways to improve the description are discussed. The SMF approach is designed to describe the quantum many-body problem according to an ensemble of mean-field trajectories, taking into account part of many-body correlations in the description. As it requires feasible computational costs comparable to the ordinary TDHF approach, together with further model improvements, it will be a promising tool in the search for optimal reaction conditions to produce yet-unknown neutron-rich heavy nuclei through the multinucleon transfer reaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Variable domain mutational analysis to probe the molecular mechanisms of high viscosity of an IgG 1 antibody

Subcutaneous injection is the preferred route of administration for many antibody therapeutics for reasons that include its speed and convenience. However, the small volume limit (typically ≤2 mL) for subcutaneous delivery often necessitates antibody formulations at high concentrations (commonly ≥100 mg/mL), which may lead to physicochemical problems. For example, antibodies with large hydrophobic or charged patches can be prone to self-interaction giving rise to high viscosity. Here, we combined X-ray crystallography with computational modeling to predict regions of an anti-glucagon receptor (GCGR) IgG 1 antibody prone to self-interaction. An extensive mutational analysis was undertaken of the complementarity-determining region residues residing in hydrophobic surface patches predicted by spatial aggregation propensity, in conjunction with residue-level solvent accessibility, averaged over conformational ensembles from molecular dynamics simulations. Dynamic light scattering (DLS) was used as a medium throughput screen for self-interaction of ~200 anti-GCGR IgG 1 variants. A negative correlation was found between the viscosity determined at high concentration (180 mg/mL) and the DLS interaction parameter measured at low concentration (2–10 mg/mL). Additionally, anti-GCGR variants were readily identified with reduced viscosity and antigen-binding affinity within a few fold of the parent antibody, with no identified impact on overall developability. The methods described here may be useful in the optimization of other antibodies to facilitate their therapeutic administration at high concentration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Pairing Correlations across the Superfluid Phase Transition in the Unitary Fermi Gas

In the two-component Fermi gas with a contact interaction, a pseudogap regime can exist at temperatures between the superfluid critical temperature $T_c$ and a temperature $T^\ast > T_c$. This regime is characterized by pairing correlations without superfluidity. However, in the unitary limit of infinite scattering length, the existence of this regime is still debated. To help address this, we have applied finite-temperature auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (AFMC) methods to study the thermodynamics of the superfluid phase transition and signatures of the pseudogap in the spin-balanced homogeneous unitary Fermi gas. We present results at finite filling factor $\textit{ν}$ ≃ 0.06 for the condensate fraction, an energy-staggering pairing gap, the spin susceptibility, and the heat capacity, and compare them to experimental data when available. In contrast to previous AFMC simulations, our model space consists of the complete first Brillouin zone of the lattice, and our calculations are performed in the canonical ensemble of fixed particle number. The canonical ensemble AFMC framework enables the calculation of a model-independent gap, providing direct information on pairing correlations without the need for numerical analytic continuation. We use finite-size scaling to estimate $T_c$ at the corresponding filling factor. In this work, we find that the energy-staggering pairing gap vanishes above $T_c$, showing no pseudogap effects, and that the spin susceptibility shows a substantially reduced signature of a spin gap compared to previously reported AFMC simulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO 2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO 2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO 2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO 2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Syndrome source coding and its universal generalization

A method of using error-correcting codes to obtain data compression, called syndrome-source-coding, is described in which the source sequence is treated as an error pattern whose syndrome forms the compressed data. It is shown that syndrome-source-coding can achieve arbitrarily small distortion with the number of compressed digits per source digit arbitrarily close to the entropy of a binary memoryless source. A universal generalization of syndrome-source-coding is formulated which provides robustly-effective, distortionless, coding of source ensembles.

Ancheta, T. C., Jr.↗

Real-time interfacial electron dynamics revealed through temporal correlations in x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

We present a novel technique to monitor dynamics in interfacial systems through temporal correlations in x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) signals. To date, the vast majority of time-resolved x-ray spectroscopy techniques rely on pump–probe schemes, in which the sample is excited out of equilibrium by a pump pulse, and the subsequent dynamics are monitored by probe pulses arriving at a series of well-defined delays relative to the excitation. By definition, this approach is restricted to processes that can either directly or indirectly be initiated by light. It cannot access spontaneous dynamics or the microscopic fluctuations of ensembles in chemical or thermal equilibrium. Enabling this capability requires measurements to be performed in real (laboratory) time with high temporal resolution and, ultimately, without the need for a well-defined trigger event. The time-correlation XPS technique presented here is a first step toward this goal. The correlation-based technique is implemented by extending an existing optical-laser pump/multiple x-ray probe setup by the capability to record the kinetic energy and absolute time of arrival of every detected photoelectron. The method is benchmarked by monitoring energy-dependent, periodic signal modulations in a prototypical time-resolved XPS experiment on photoinduced surface-photovoltage dynamics in silicon, using both conventional pump–probe data acquisition, and the new technique based on laboratory time. The two measurements lead to the same result. The findings provide a critical milestone toward the overarching goal of studying equilibrium dynamics at surfaces and interfaces through time correlation-based XPS measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Comparison of CNN-Based Image Classification Approaches for Implementation of Low-Cost Multispectral Arcing Detection

Camera-based sensing has benefited in recent years from developments in machine learning data processing methods, as well as improved data collection options such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) mounted sensors. However, cost considerations, both for the initial purchase of sensors as well as updates, maintenance, or potential replacement if damaged, can limit adoption of more expensive sensing options for some applications. To evaluate more affordable options with less expensive, more available, and more easily replaceable hardware, we examine the use of machine learning-based image classification with custom datasets, utilizing deep learning based-image classification and the use of ensemble models for sensor fusion. Utilizing the same models for each camera to reduce technical overhead, we showed that for a very representative training dataset, camera-based detection can be successful for detection of electrical arcing. We also use multiple validation datasets, based on conditions expected to be of varying difficulty, to evaluate custom data. These results show that ensemble models of different data sources can mitigate risks from gaps in training data, though the system will be less redundant for those cases unless other precautions are taken. We found that with good quality custom datasets, data fusion models can be utilized without specialization in design to the specific cameras utilized, allowing for less specialized, more accessible equipment to be utilized as multispectral camera components. This approach can provide an alternative to expensive sensing equipment for applications in which lower-cost or more easily replaceable sensing equipment is desirable.

convolutional neural networks↗