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At least 991 records · Page 55

Towards Validation of an Adaptive Flight Control Simulation Using Statistical Emulation

Traditional validation of flight control systems is based primarily upon empirical testing. Empirical testing is sufficient for simple systems in which a.) the behavior is approximately linear and b.) humans are in-the-loop and responsible for off-nominal flight regimes. A different possible concept of operation is to use adaptive flight control systems with online learning neural networks (OLNNs) in combination with a human pilot for off-nominal flight behavior (such as when a plane has been damaged). Validating these systems is difficult because the controller is changing during the flight in a nonlinear way, and because the pilot and the control system have the potential to co-adapt in adverse ways traditional empirical methods are unlikely to provide any guarantees in this case. Additionally, the time it takes to find unsafe regions within the flight envelope using empirical testing means that the time between adaptive controller design iterations is large. This paper describes a new concept for validating adaptive control systems using methods based on Bayesian statistics. This validation framework allows the analyst to build nonlinear models with modal behavior, and to have an uncertainty estimate for the difference between the behaviors of the model and system under test.

He, Yuning↗

CloudSat-Constrained Cloud Ice Water Path and Cloud Top Height Retrievals from MHS 157 and 183.3 GHz Radiances

Ice water path (IWP) and cloud top height (ht) are two of the key variables in determining cloud radiative and thermodynamical properties in climate models. Large uncertainty remains among IWP measurements from satellite sensors, in large part due to the assumptions made for cloud microphysics in these retrievals. In this study, we develop a fast algorithm to retrieve IWP from the 157, 183.3+/-3 and 190.3 GHz radiances of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) such that the MHS cloud ice retrieval is consistent with CloudSat IWP measurements. This retrieval is obtained by constraining the empirical forward models between collocated and coincident measurements of CloudSat IWP and MHS cloud-induced radiance depression (Tcir) at these channels. The empirical forward model is represented by a lookup table (LUT) of Tcir-IWP relationships as a function of ht and the frequency channel.With ht simultaneously retrieved, the IWP is found to be more accurate. The useful range of the MHS IWP retrieval is between 0.5 and 10 kg/sq m, and agrees well with CloudSat in terms of the normalized probability density function (PDF). Compared to the empirical model, current operational radiative transfer models (RTMs) still have significant uncertainties in characterizing the observed Tcir-IWP relationships. Therefore, the empirical LUT method developed here remains an effective approach to retrieving ice cloud properties from the MHS-like microwave channels.

cloud top height↗

Do We Know the Actual Magnetopause Position for Typical Solar Wind Conditions?

We compare predicted magnetopause positions at the subsolar point and four reference points in the terminator plane obtained from several empirical and numerical MHD (magnetohydrodynamics) models. Empirical models using various sets of magnetopause crossings and making different assumptions about the magnetopause shape predict significantly different magnetopause positions (with a scatter greater than 1 Earth radius (R (sub E)) even at the subsolar point. Axisymmetric magnetopause models cannot reproduce the cusp indentations or the changes related to the dipole tilt effect, and most of them predict the magnetopause closer to the Earth than non axisymmetric models for typical solar wind conditions and zero tilt angle. Predictions of two global non axisymmetric models do not match each other, and the models need additional verification. MHD models often predict the magnetopause closer to the Earth than the non axisymmetric empirical models, but the predictions of MHD simulations may need corrections for the ring current effect and decreases of the solar wind pressure that occur in the foreshock. Comparing MHD models in which the ring current magnetic field is taken into account with the empirical Lin et al. model, we find that the differences in the reference point positions predicted by these models are relatively small for B (sub z) equals 0 (note: B (sub z) is when the Earth's magnetic field points north versus Sun's magnetic field pointing south). Therefore, we assume that these predictions indicate the actual magnetopause position, but future investigations are still needed.

Samsonov, A. A.↗

High-Performance Computing Optimization for Aladyn – Adaptive Neural Network Molecular Dynamics Mini-Application

This report provides a description and performance evaluation of the optimization techniques for high performance computing (HPC) implementation of the open source Computational Materials mini-application Aladyn (https://github.com/nasa/aladyn). Aladyn is a basic molecular dynamics code written in FORTRAN 2003, which is designed to demonstrate the use of adaptive neural networks (ANNs) in atomistic simulations. The role of ANNs is to efficiently reproduce the very complex energy landscape resulting from the atomic interactions in materials with the accuracy of the more expensive quantum mechanics-based calculations. The ANN is trained on a large set of atomic structures calculated using the density functional theory (DFT) method. While achieving orders of magnitude faster computational performance than DFT, the ANN-based approach was still very computationally demanding compared to the conventional approach of using empirically fitted energy functions. After its initial development, Aladyn was evaluated and optimized by experts at the NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) division to exploit modern supercomputer architectures. The code has been optimized for execution on multicore central processing units (CPUs), including Intel® Skylake microarchitecture, and on graphic accelerators, such as Nvidia® V100 graphic processing units (GPUs), using Open Multi-Processing (OpenMP) and Open Accelerators (OpenACC) programming interfaces. The optimization achieved a speedup of 4.7 times the baseline version on CPU performance and an additional 2.4 times on CPU+GPU performance. Atomistic computer simulations are a fundamental tool in materials research to model material properties form physics-based first principles. Atomic interaction, governed by Quantum Mechanics (QM) require sophisticated and highly computationally demanding mathematical models to calculate [1]. Classical methods use approximate functional forms, empirically fitted through a set of variable parameters to emulate atomic energies as direct functions of atomic coordinates [2]. While empirical potentials are computationally much simpler, allowing simulations of large-scale systems of up to a trillion (1012) atoms [3], they are substantially less accurate compared to quantum calculations and applicable only to very specific atomic configurations or predefined crystallographic phases. A recently suggested approach is to use heuristic machine learning methods [4], such as those based on Adaptive Neural Networks (ANNs) to predict atomic energies, after being trained on a sufficiently large database of QM-calculated structures [5,6]. This approach reduces significantly the computational complexity, allowing for simulations of orders of magnitude larger systems compared to QM-based methods without compromising accuracy. Still, compared to classical methods using empirical energy functions, ANN methods remain two- to three orders of magnitude more computationally demanding. Hence, the computational cost of simulations, together with the need for extensive training of ANNs, still makes the practical implementation of ANN-based methods quite challenging. The purpose of the Aladyn mini-application software [7], available as open source at https://github.com/nasa/aladyn, is to be a testbed for exploring possible optimization strategies to develop highly scalable parallel algorithms for ANN-based atomistic simulations. Aladyn is aimed at utilizing the architecture of the high-end modern highperformance computing (HPC) hardware based on multicore central processing units (CPUs) equipped with graphic processing unit (GPU) accelerators. Specifically, the goal is to optimize the performance on a single HPC compute node, before implementing scaling to multi-node parallelization using message passing interface (MPI). At the same time, the open source code of Aladyn can serve as a training model for students and professors in academia.

Yamakov, Vesselin I.↗

Design of novel refractory equiatomic multi-principal elemental alloys based on Mo-Nb-Ti system for Gen IV reactor applications

Excellent irradiation damage resistance demonstrated by multi-principal elemental alloys (MPEAs) has sparked significant interest among researchers, prompting exploration into their vast compositional space, to validate their suitability for nuclear applications. A combined approach of thermodynamic and empirical parameters calculations alongside CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) for phase formation predictions enable high-throughput material selection for sophisticated applications like nuclear, overcoming laborious and time-consuming experiments. Key thermodynamic and empirical parameters for eight novel equiatomic MPEAs, based on seven low thermal neutron cross section refractory elements, for predicting phase formation were calculated, and equilibrium and non-equilibrium simulations in CALPHAD were employed to comprehensively model the systems. Pseudo binary phase diagram simulations showed that Zr, V or equiatomic CrV additions to the base MoNbTi alloy (MoNbTi-Zr, MoNbTi-V and MoNbTi-CrV alloys) favor the formation of isomorphous body-centered cubic (BCC) phase at high temperatures, while Cr, Al, equiatomic ZrV, or equiatomic CrAl additions (MoNbTi-Cr, MoNbTi-Al, MoNbTi-ZrV or MoNbTi-CrAl alloys) limit the solubility of them. Equilibrium CALPHAD simulations at 750 oC were consistent with XRD results on MoNbTi, MoNbTiZr and MoNbTiCr alloys, and partially for others. Notably, elemental segregation observed in the backscattered electron (BSE) scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images of the alloys was accurately simulated through non-equilibrium Scheil solidification calculations in CALPHAD, further verified by experiments. The precipitation of TiCr2 Laves phase in Cr containing MoNbTiCr and MoNbTiCrAl was accurately predicted while discrepancies were noted in MoNbTiCrV. The equilibrium simulations also provided insights into phase compositions at specific temperatures offering a pathway for tailoring the desired microstructure and properties of these systems. Empirical parameters calculations successfully predicted random solid solution in the base MoNbTi alloy, and with an exception in MoNbTiV and MoNbTiAl, predicted intermetallic precipitation in the rest, especially, Laves phase precipitation in Cr containing alloys.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantifying conditional probabilities of fish-turbine encounters and impacts

Tidal turbines are one source of marine renewable energy but development of tidal power is hampered by uncertainties in fish-turbine interaction impacts. Current knowledge gaps exist in efforts to quantify risks, as empirical data and modeling studies have characterized components of fish approach and interaction with turbines, but a comprehensive model that quantifies conditional occurrence probabilities of fish approaching and then interacting with a turbine in sequential steps is lacking. We combined empirical acoustic density measurements of Pacific herring ( Clupea pallasii ) and when data limited, published probabilities in an impact probability model that includes approach, entrainment, interactions, and avoidance of fish with axial or cross-flow tidal turbines. Interaction impacts include fish collisions with stationary turbine components, blade strikes by rotating blades, and/or a collision followed by a blade strike. Impact probabilities for collision followed by a blade strike were lowest with estimates ranging from 0.0000242 to 0.0678, and highest for blade strike ranging from 0.000261 to 0.40. Maximum probabilities occurred for a cross-flow turbine at night with no active or passive avoidance. Estimates were lowest when probabilities were conditional on sequential events, and when active and passive avoidance was included for an axial-flow turbine during the day. As expected, conditional probabilities were typically lower than analogous independent events and literature values. Estimating impact probabilities for Pacific herring in Admiralty Inlet, Washington, United States for two device types illustrates utilization of existing data and simultaneously identifies data gaps needed to fully calculate empirical-based probabilities for any site-species combination.

collision risk↗

Quality Control Methods for Advanced Metering Infrastructure Data

While urban-scale building energy modeling is becoming increasingly common, it currently lacks standards, guidelines, or empirical validation against measured data. Empirical validation necessary to enable best practices is becoming increasingly tractable. The growing prevalence of advanced metering infrastructure has led to significant data regarding the energy consumption within individual buildings, but is something utilities and countries are still struggling to analyze and use wisely. In partnership with the Electric Power Board of Chattanooga, Tennessee, a crude OpenStudio/EnergyPlus model of over 178,000 buildings has been created and used to compare simulated energy against actual, 15-min, whole-building electrical consumption of each building. In this study, classifying building type is treated as a use case for quantifying performance associated with smart meter data. This article attempts to provide guidance for working with advanced metering infrastructure for buildings related to: quality control, pathological data classifications, statistical metrics on performance, a methodology for classifying building types, and assess accuracy. Advanced metering infrastructure was used to collect whole-building electricity consumption for 178,333 buildings, define equations for common data issues (missing values, zeros, and spiking), propose a new method for assigning building type, and empirically validate gaps between real buildings and existing prototypes using industry-standard accuracy metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Revealing Asymmetries in the HD181327 Debris Disk: A Recent Massive Collision or Interstellar Medium Warping

New multi-roll coronagraphic images of the HD181327 debris disk obtained using the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph on board the Hubble Space Telescope reveal the debris ring in its entirety at high signal-to-noise ratio and unprecedented spatial resolution. We present and apply a new multi-roll image processing routine to identify and further remove quasi-static point-spread function-subtraction residuals and quantify systematic uncertainties. We also use a new iterative image deprojection technique to constrain the true disk geometry and aggressively remove any surface brightness asymmetries that can be explained without invoking dust density enhancements/ deficits. The measured empirical scattering phase function for the disk is more forward scattering than previously thought and is not well-fit by a Henyey-Greenstein function. The empirical scattering phase function varies with stellocentric distance, consistent with the expected radiation pressured-induced size segregation exterior to the belt. Within the belt, the empirical scattering phase function contradicts unperturbed debris ring models, suggesting the presence of an unseen planet. The radial profile of the flux density is degenerate with a radially varying scattering phase function; therefore estimates of the ring's true width and edge slope may be highly uncertain.We detect large scale asymmetries in the disk, consistent with either the recent catastrophic disruption of a body with mass greater than 1% the mass of Pluto, or disk warping due to strong interactions with the interstellar medium.

Henyey Greenstein function↗

Estimating rates and patterns of diversification with incomplete sampling: a case study in the rosids

Premise Recent advances in generating large‐scale phylogenies enable broad‐scale estimation of species diversification. These now common approaches typically are characterized by (1) incomplete species coverage without explicit sampling methodologies and/or (2) sparse backbone representation, and usually rely on presumed phylogenetic placements to account for species without molecular data. We used empirical examples to examine the effects of incomplete sampling on diversification estimation and provide constructive suggestions to ecologists and evolutionary biologists based on those results. Methods We used a supermatrix for rosids and one well‐sampled subclade (Cucurbitaceae) as empirical case studies. We compared results using these large phylogenies with those based on a previously inferred, smaller supermatrix and on a synthetic tree resource with complete taxonomic coverage. Finally, we simulated random and representative taxon sampling and explored the impact of sampling on three commonly used methods, both parametric (RPANDA and BAMM) and semiparametric (DR). Results We found that the impact of sampling on diversification estimates was idiosyncratic and often strong. Compared to full empirical sampling, representative and random sampling schemes either depressed or inflated speciation rates, depending on methods and sampling schemes. No method was entirely robust to poor sampling, but BAMM was least sensitive to moderate levels of missing taxa. Conclusions We suggest caution against uncritical modeling of missing taxa using taxonomic data for poorly sampled trees and in the use of summary backbone trees and other data sets with high representative bias, and we stress the importance of explicit sampling methodologies in macroevolutionary studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Scalable Reduced‐Order Model for the Steady Navier–Stokes Equations

Scaling up new scientific technologies from laboratory to industry often involves demonstrating performance on a larger scale. Computer simulations can accelerate design and predictions in the deployment process, though traditional numerical methods are computationally intractable even for intermediate pilot plant scales. Recently, the component reduced order modeling method has been developed to tackle this challenge by combining projection reduced order modeling and discontinuous Galerkin domain decomposition. However, while many scientific or engineering applications involve nonlinear physics, this method has only been demonstrated for various linear systems. In this work, the component reduced order modeling method is extended to steady Navier–Stokes flow, with application to general nonlinear physics in view. The large‐scale, global domain is decomposed into a combination of small‐scale unit component. Linear subspaces for flow velocity and pressure are identified via proper orthogonal decomposition over sample snapshots collected from each small‐scale unit component. Velocity bases are augmented with a pressure supremizer to satisfy the inf–sup condition for stable pressure prediction. Two different nonlinear reduced order modeling methods are employed and compared for efficient evaluation of nonlinear advection: A third‐order tensor projection operator and the empirical quadrature procedure. The proposed method is demonstrated on the flow over arrays of five different unit objects, achieving a 23‐fold speedup with less than 4% relative error in domains up to 256 times larger than the unit components. Furthermore, a numerical experiment with the pressure supremizer strongly indicates the need for a supremizer for stable pressure prediction. A comparison between the tensorial approach and the empirical quadrature procedure revealed a slight advantage of the empirical quadrature procedure. The framework is compared with an alternating Schwarz‐based reduced‐order approach, demonstrating improved efficiency and robustness for the DG‐based global solver while retaining flexibility for sub‐scale iterative solvers. The method is further extended to a coupled advection–diffusion and Navier–Stokes system, illustrating its applicability to multi‐physics problems and its potential for more general, inter‐coupled nonlinear systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparative Analyses of Bioequivalence Assessment Methods for In Vitro Permeation Test Data

ABSTRACT For topical, dermatological drug products, an in vitro option to determine bioequivalence (BE) between test and reference products is recommended. In particular, in vitro permeation test (IVPT) data analysis uses a reference‐scaled approach for two primary endpoints, cumulative penetration amount (AMT) and maximum flux ( J max ), which takes the within donor variability into consideration. In 2022, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published a draft IVPT guidance that includes statistical analysis methods for both balanced and unbalanced cases of IVPT study data. This work presents a comprehensive evaluation of various methodologies used to estimate critical parameters essential in assessing BE. Specifically, we investigate the performance of the FDA draft IVPT guidance approach alongside alternative empirical and model‐based methods utilizing mixed‐effects models. Our analyses include both simulated scenarios and real‐world studies. In simulated scenarios, empirical formulas consistently demonstrate robustness in approximating the true model, particularly in effectively addressing treatment–donor interactions. Conversely, the effectiveness of model‐based approaches heavily relies on precise model selection, which significantly influences their results. The research emphasizes the importance of accurate model selection in model‐based BE assessment methodologies. It sheds light on the advantages of empirical formulas, highlighting their reliability compared to model‐based approaches and offers valuable implications for BE assessments. Our findings underscore the significance of robust methodologies and provide essential insights to advance their understanding and application in the assessment of BE, employed in IVPT data analysis.

Leon, Sami↗

Nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in an ombrotrophic peatland: a benchmark for assessing change

Aims Slow decomposition and isolation from groundwater mean that ombrotrophic peatlands store a large amount of soil carbon (C) but have low availability of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). To better understand the role these limiting nutrients play in determining the C balance of peatland ecosystems, we compile comprehensive N and P budgets for a forested bog in northern Minnesota, USA. Methods N and P within plants, soils, and water are quantified based on field measurements. The resulting empirical dataset are then compared to modern-day, site-level simulations from the peatland land surface version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM-SPRUCE).

Salmon, Verity G.↗

The effective number of parameters in kernel density estimation

We devise a new formula for measuring the effective degrees of freedom (EDoF) in kernel density estimation (KDE). Starting from the orthogonal polynomial sequence (OPS) expansion for the ratio of the empirical to the oracle density, we show how convolution with the kernel leads to a new OPS with respect to which one may express the resulting KDE. The expansion coefficients of the two OPS systems can then be related via a kernel sensitivity matrix, which leads to a natural oracle definition of EDoF through the trace operator. Asymptotic properties of the (empirical) plug-in EDoF are worked out through influence functions, and connections with other empirical EDoFs are established. Minimization of Kullback-Leibler divergence is investigated as an alternative to integrated squared error based bandwidth selection rules, yielding a new normal scale rule. The methodology, which arises from a proper oracle formulation and is not restricted to convolution kernels, suggests the possibility of a new bandwidth selection rule based on an information criterion such as AIC.

bandwidth selection↗

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A machine learning approach to fracture mechanics problems

Analytical and empirical solutions to engineering problems are usually preferred because of their convenience in applications. However, they are not always accessible in complex problems. A new class of solutions, based on machine learning (ML) models such as regression trees and neural networks (NNs), are proposed and their feasibility and value are demonstrated through the analysis of fracture toughness measurements. It is found that both solutions based on regression trees and NNs can provide accurate results for the specific problem, but NN-based solutions outperform regression-tree-based solutions in terms of their simplicity. Here this example demonstrates that ML solutions are a major improvement over analytical and empirical solutions in terms of both reliable functionality and rapid deployment. When analytical solutions are not available, the use of ML solutions can overcome the limitations of empirical solutions and substantially change the way that engineering problems are solved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Two-step neutronics calculations with Shift and Griffin for advanced reactor systems

This research develops the initial coupling of the Shift Monte Carlo (MC) code and the Griffin reactor physics code for reactor analysis of non–light-water reactor systems. The novelty of this work is twofold. It is the first application of Shift to produce the multigroup cross sections needed for Griffin as applied to a non–light-water reactor system; and, the first investigation and analysis of characteristics of the Empire microreactor benchmark that should be considered for steady state and transient reactor physics calculations. This application uses the previously developed two-step neutronics analysis workflow to demonstrate this initial coupling. Here, we outline the two-step neutronics analysis workflow in which the Shift MC code is used to generate the multigroup cross sections and fluxes needed by the Griffin deterministic solver. Details on how these multigroup cross sections are generated using MC tallies are given, as well as the practicalities and limitations of the two-step neutronics workflow. The Empire microreactor benchmark was used to investigate and validate this coupling. Results using this benchmark show good agreement between Griffin calculations using Serpent-generated cross sections and Shift-generated cross sections. Analysis of the characteristics of this Empire benchmark show larger eigenvalue differences between heterogeneous and pin–homogenized solutions compared to those of traditional light-water reactor (LWR) designs, thus requiring super homogenization factor corrections for accurate eigenvalue and power distribution predictions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Agent-based simulation and child protection systems: Rationale, implementation, and verification

Simulation models are an important tool used in health care and other disciplines to support operational research and decision-making. In the child protection literature, simulation models are an under-utilized source of research evidence. Here, in this paper, we describe the rationale for and the development of an agent-based simulation of a child protection system in the US. Using the investigation, prevention service, and placement histories of 600,000 children served in an urban child welfare system, we walk the reader through the development of a prototype known as OSPEDALE. The governing equations built into OSPEDALE probabilistically simulate the onset of investigations. Then, drawing from empirical survival distributions, the governing equations trace the probability of subsequent interactions with the system (recurrence of maltreatment, service referrals, and placement) conditional on the characteristics of children, their assessed risk level, and prior child protection system involvement. As an initial test of OSPEDALE's utility, we compare empirical admission counts with counts generated from OSPEDALE. Though the verification step is admittedly simple, the comparison shows that OSPEDALE replicates the empirical count of new admissions closely enough to justify further investment in OSPEDALE. Management of public child protection systems is increasingly research evidence-dependent. The emphasis on research evidence as a decision-support tool has elevated evidence acquired through randomized clinical trials. Though important, the evidence from clinical trials represents only one type of research evidence. Properly specified, simulation models are another source of evidence with real-world relevance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗