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At least 991 records · Page 55

Preliminary Results for Using Uncertainty and Out-of-distribution Detection to Identify Unreliable Predictions.

As machine learning (ML) models are deployed into an ever-diversifying set of application spaces, ranging from self-driving cars to cybersecurity to climate modeling, the need to carefully evaluate model credibility becomes increasingly important. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides important information about the ability of a learned model to make sound predictions, often with respect to individual test cases. However, most UQ methods for ML are themselves data-driven and therefore susceptible to the same knowledge gaps as the models themselves. Specifically, UQ helps to identify points near decision boundaries where the models fit the data poorly, yet predictions can score as certain for points that are under-represented by the training data and thus out-of-distribution (OOD). One method for evaluating the quality of both ML models and their associated uncertainty estimates is out-of-distribution detection (OODD). We combine OODD with UQ to provide insights into the reliability of the individual predictions made by an ML model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scalable Predictive Control and Optimization for Grid Integration of Large-Scale Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

Integration of a large number of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the power grid needs a scalable power balancing method. We formulate the power balancing problem as a look-ahead optimization problem to be solved sequentially by a power distribution system aggregator based on a model predictive control (MPC) framework. Solving large-scale look-ahead control problem requires proper configuration of the control steps. In this paper, to solve large-scale control problems, we propose a variable time granularity where control time steps nearby the current control step have finer resolutions. The aggregator objective includes maximization of power production revenue and minimization of power purchasing expense, renewable power curtailment, and mileage costs for energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) charging stations while satisfying system capacity and operational constraints. The control problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and solved using the XpressMP solver. We perform simulations considering a copper plate representation of a large distribution network consisting of 2507 devices (controllable DERs) including curtailable photovoltaics (PVs), energy storage batteries, EV charging stations, and buildings with heating, ventilation, and air conditioning units (HVACs). We show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in managing DERs interactively for maximum energy trading profit and local supply-demand power balancing. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperformed other benchmark controllers regarding computation time without compromising operational performance.

DER↗

Tomography of the gamma-ray sky from cross-correlation with DESI DR2 and unWISE galaxies

We study the origin of extragalactic gamma-ray emission observed by Fermi-LAT, using the cross-correlation of the gamma-ray sky with maps of large-scale structure provided by the DESI and unWISE surveys. Tomographic cross-correlation reveals the bias-weighted redshift distributions of gamma-ray sources. We first illustrate this method by cross-correlating detected gamma-ray point sources with large-scale structure. We find a significant cross-correlation and infer a point source redshift distribution broadly consistent with the distribution of identified optical counterparts previously reported in the literature, as well as a similar linear bias ($b \approx 2$) to massive galaxies that host bright active galactic nuclei. We then study the clustering of the Fermi unresolved gamma-ray background (UGRB), both in auto-correlation and in cross-correlation with large-scale structure. We detect the cross-correlation of the UGRB and LSS at $\sim 10σ$ in total, with highly significant detections from both DESI and unWISE. Our measurements suggest that the redshift distribution of the UGRB is broadly consistent with the redshift distribution of detected point sources. Additionally, we find a relatively weak amplitude for the cross-correlation with large-scale structure at z < 2, suggesting a significant fraction of the UGRB does not come from z < 2 large-scale structure. A natural candidate is contamination of from residual Galactic emission, and our best estimate of the contamination level derived from the UGRB auto-spectrum suggests that the mean bias of UGRB sources is indeed quite similar to the bias of detected Fermi point sources. However, we cannot exclude additional emission from gamma-ray sources at high redshift, z > 2, and we suggest that cross-correlation with tracers at z > 2, including CMB lensing, would be the ideal way to determine the fraction of z > 2 emission.

Krolewski, Alex [Waterloo U., Math. Dept.; Waterlo↗

Bridging particle and reactor scales in the simulation of biomass fast pyrolysis by coupling particle resolved simulation and coarse grained CFD-DEM

Efficient utilization of biomass is challenging due to the complexity of the feedstock at molecular, particle, and reactor scales. Direct coupling of particle scale model and reactor scale simulation is computationally infeasible. In this work, the results from a particle resolved simulation were used to calibrate the heat transfer and reaction kinetics of particles. A hybrid drag model was used to consider the different fluidization properties of sands and biomass particles. The computation cost was reduced using a coarse-grained Discrete Element Method (DEM). The simulated conversion rate, char yield, tar yield, and pyrolysis gas yield compare well with experiment. The residence time and axial distributions of biomass were also analyzed. This novel multi-scale method provides an efficient and accurate tool for the modeling of biomass pyrolysis reactors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Heat transfer in directly-irradiated high-temperature solid–gas flows laden with polydisperse particles

Heat transfer in directly-irradiated high-temperature solid–gas flows laden with polydisperse particles is investigated using a novel transient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics model. The model couples particle–gas hydrodynamics of solid–gas flows laden with polydisperse particles, radiative heat transfer in non-grey absorbing, emitting and anisotropically-scattering multi-component participating media, conduction heat transfer in the gas phase, and interfacial convection heat transfer. The multiphase particle-in-cell method is used to predict high-fidelity solid–gas flow characteristics, such as the local discrete particle size distribution, with increased computational efficiency by combining the advantages of both Eulerian and Lagrangian methods. The multi-component radiative transfer model is implemented using an advanced collision-based Monte Carlo ray-tracing method. The number of the prescribed discrete particle components is found to be the key parameter affecting the computational accuracy and efficiency, which primarily depends on the size distribution of the particles. For the model particle–gas flow featuring free-falling Gamma-distributed ceramic particles exposed to concentrated solar irradiation, the particle volume fraction, radiative, fluid flow and thermal characteristics appear to converge with the increasing number of the discrete particle components. Five particle components are sufficient to obtain physically meaningful results. A further increase in the number of the particle components only slightly increases the accuracy of the numerical predictions at the expense of a rapidly increasing computational time. For five particle components, the particle vertical velocity at the receiver exit for particles with the diameter of 43.4 μm is 57% of that for the particles with the diameter of 202.8 μm. The temperatures of these two particle components increase from the initial ambient values by factors of 2 and 1.2, respectively, during the simulation time. In conclusion, the model developed allows for increased fidelity of particle–gas flow simulations with significant radiative effects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-Driven Distributed Algorithms for Estimating Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors of Interconnected Dynamical Systems

Here, the paper presents data-driven algorithms to estimate in a distributed manner the eigenvalues, right and left eigenvectors of an unknown linear (or linearized) interconnected dynamic system. In particular, the proposed algorithms do not require the identification of the system model in advance before performing the estimation. As a first step, we consider interconnected dynamical system with distinct eigenvalues. The proposed strategy first estimates the eigenvalues using the well-known Prony method. The right and left eigenvectors are then estimated by solving distributively a set of linear equations. One important feature of the proposed algorithms is that the topology of communication network used to perform the distributed estimation can be chosen arbitrarily, given that it is connected, and is also independent of the structure or sparsity of the system (state) matrix. The proposed distributed algorithms are demonstrated via a numerical example.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Examination of probability distribution of mixture fraction in LES/FDF modelling of a turbulent partially premixed jet flame

An accurate prediction of the probability density function (PDF) of the mixture fraction is crucial to the prediction of combustion since mixing plays an important role in turbulent non-premixed and partially premixed flames. This work provides an assessment of the large-eddy simulation (LES)/filtered density function (FDF) method for the prediction of the PDF of the mixture fraction. The advantage of the LES/FDF method is that it provides the full predictions of the statistical distribution of scalars including the mixture fraction. The predictive accuracy of the method for the PDF is yet to be fully validated. Assessing the prediction of the PDF of the mixture fraction, a conserved scalar, is an important starting point. The Sydney/Sandia inhomogeneous inlet jet flame is used as a test case. A quick comparison shows that the LES/FDF predicted PDF shapes of the mixture fraction deviate significantly from the commonly presumed Beta-PDF as well as from the experimental data in the flame. Here, to examine the source of the discrepancy, we clarify the different PDF definitions used in the comparison among the predictions, measurements, and the presumed shape PDFs. The discrepancy observed from the comparison is largely reconciled by clarifying the difference between the PDFs that are examined. The PDF of the resolved mixture fraction is shown to be close to the Beta-PDF in both the measurements and predictions, while the PDF directly deduced from the LES/FDF particles deviates significantly from the Beta-PDF. A multimodal PDF analysis and a pseudo convergence analysis are conducted to provide plausible evidence to support the predicted multimodal PDF shapes. The sub-filter scale FDF is shown to be close to the Beta-PDF too through the construction of a synthesized PDF, which supports the common presumed Beta-PDF assumption used in the presumed PDF methods when combined with LES.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Extended convex hull-based distributed optimal energy flow of integrated electricity-gas systems

Integrated electricity and gas systems are constructed to facilitate the gas-fired generation, and the distributed operation of these integrated systems have received much attention due to the increased emphasis on data security and privacy between different agencies. This paper proposes an extended convex hull based method to address optimal energy flow problems for the integrated electricity and gas systems in a distributed manner. First, a multi-block electricity-gas system model is constructed by dividing the whole system into N blocks considering both physical and regional differences. This multi-block model is then convexified by replacing the nonconvex gas transmission equation with the extended convex hull-based constraints. The Jacobi-Proximal alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm is adopted to solve the convexified model and minimize its operation cost. Finally, the feasibility of the optimal solution for the convexified model is checked, and a sufficient condition is developed. If the sufficient condition is satisfied, the optimal solution for the original nonconvex problem can be recovered from that for the convexified problem. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is tractable and effective in obtaining feasible optimal solutions for multi-block optimal energy flow problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Robust Design Under Uncertainty in Quantum Error Mitigation

Error mitigation techniques are crucial to achieving near-term quantum advantage. Classical postprocessing of quantum computation outcomes is a popular approach for error mitigation, which includes methods, such as zero noise extrapolation, virtual distillation, and learning-based error mitigation. However, these techniques have limitations due to the propagation of uncertainty resulting from the finite shot number of a quantum measurement. In this work, we introduce general and unbiased methods for quantifying the uncertainty and error of error-mitigated observables based on the strategic sampling of error mitigation outcomes. We then extend our approach to demonstrate the optimization of performance and robustness of error mitigation under uncertainty. To illustrate our methods, we apply them to zero noise extrapolation and Clifford date regression in the ground state of the XY model simulated using depolarizing and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Toronto noise models, respectively. In particular, we optimize the choice of noise levels and the allocation of shots for zero noise extrapolation and the distribution of the training circuits for Clifford data regression. While our methods are readily applicable to any postprocessing-based error mitigation approach, in practice they must not be prohibitively expensive—even though they perform optimizations of the error mitigation hyperparameters requiring sampling of a statistical distribution of error mitigation outcomes. By leveraging surrogate-based optimization, we show that our methods can efficiently perform optimal design for a zero noise extrapolation implementation. We then further demonstrate the transferability of learned zero noise extrapolation hyperparameters to other similar circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Degradation of REBCO coated conductors due to a combination of epoxy impregnation, thermal cycles, and quench: Characteristics and a method of alleviation

REBa2Cu3Ox (REBCO) coated conductors are an enabling technology for >1 GHz nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometers that need >23.5 T solenoids, compact high-field fusion reactors beyond the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, and 20 T class accelerator magnets. An in-depth understanding of stress and strain management is critically needed for these applications. Here, we report experimental data and an analysis of damages of REBCO-coated conductors in several scenarios relevant for their applications in high-field magnets and unique to their multi-layer thin film structure. The examined scenarios include failure induced by quench, failure induced by epoxy impregnation, and failure induced by a combination of epoxy impregnation and quench. The root cause is film blistering and peeling induced by thermally interfacial stresses characteristic of multilayered heteroepitaxial thin film structures on thick substrates utilized. The quantitative stress analysis is introduced using simple and easy to use formulas and clearly indicates how materials and structural characteristics affect the magnitude and the distribution of stresses and deflections. Finally, a simple method is introduced for removing degradation of REBCO coated conductors due to epoxy impregnation. Our data and analysis help our understanding of the practical limit of REBCO-coated conductors and can be utilized as a guidance for the physical design of REBCO coated conductors and high-current cables assembled from them and for minimizing damages.

Yin, Shijian (ORCID:0000000224312274)↗

Real-time image denoising of mixed Poisson–Gaussian noise in fluorescence microscopy images using ImageJ

Fluorescence microscopy imaging speed is fundamentally limited by the measurement signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). To improve image SNR for a given image acquisition rate, computational denoising techniques can be used to suppress noise. However, common techniques to estimate a denoised image from a single frame either are computationally expensive or rely on simple noise statistical models. These models assume Poisson or Gaussian noise statistics, which are not appropriate for many fluorescence microscopy applications that contain quantum shot noise and electronic Johnson–Nyquist noise, therefore a mixture of Poisson and Gaussian noise. In this paper, we show convolutional neural networks (CNNs) trained on mixed Poisson and Gaussian noise images to overcome the limitations of existing image denoising methods. The trained CNN is presented as an open-source ImageJ plugin that performs real-time image denoising (within tens of milliseconds) with superior performance (SNR improvement) compared to conventional fluorescence microscopy denoising methods. The method is validated on external datasets with out-of-distribution noise, contrast, structure, and imaging modalities from the training data and consistently achieves high-performance ( > <#comment/> 8 d B ) denoising in less time than other fluorescence microscopy denoising methods.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Matrix-free subcell residual distribution for Bernstein finite elements: Monolithic limiting

This paper is focused on the aspects of limiting in residual distribution (RD) schemes for high-order finite element approximations to advection problems. Both continuous and discontinuous Galerkin methods are considered in this work. Discrete maximum principles are enforced using algebraic manipulations of element contributions to the global nonlinear system. The required modifications can be carried out without calculating the element matrices and assembling their global counterparts. The components of element vectors associated with the standard Galerkin discretization are manipulated directly using localized subcell weights to achieve optimal accuracy. Low-order nonlinear RD schemes of this kind were originally developed to calculate local extremum diminishing predictors for flux-corrected transport (FCT) algorithms. In the present paper, we incorporate limiters directly into the residual distribution procedure, which makes it applicable to stationary problems and leads to well-posed nonlinear discrete problems. To circumvent the second-order accuracy barrier, the correction factors of monolithic limiting approaches and FCT schemes are adjusted using smoothness sensors based on second derivatives. Finally, the convergence behavior of presented methods is illustrated by numerical studies for two-dimensional test problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Industrialized and Robotic Construction Advances in Terrestrial Construction and Opportunities in Space Construction

Advanced Building Construction (ABC) methods such as industrialized prefabrication and robotically controlled additive deposition are becoming promising technologies to support rapid construction of buildings at volume and scale. However, apart from the structural shell of the building, optimal integration of other systems – mechanical, electrical, plumbing, thermal, power generation, storage and distribution, is key to enabling functional buildings. Leveraging ABC methods to integrate such systems in the buildings requires the building design to be optimized for constructability constraints imposed by the industrialized and robotically controlled production setups entailing such ABC methods. The Industrialized Construction Innovation (ICI) team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been focusing on research and development of such ABC technologies and processes that can lead to production of buildings which are resilient to extreme climatic conditions at reduced cost and time. There is a potential synergy between such advancements in terrestrial construction, which can be leveraged for the benefit of space (orbital and extra-terrestrial) construction. Similarly, advances in space construction can lend itself to accelerated adoption of robotic construction methods in terrestrial construction. This presentation will give an overview of selective research efforts of the ICI team at NREL, along with a vision for potential collaborations with agencies like NASA.

3D printing↗

Examination of Digital-Delay Rossi-$\alpha$ for 252 Cf-Driven Highly Enriched Uranium Using Organic Scintillators

Neutron noise techniques constitute several analysis methods applicable to non-destructive assay. One technique is the Rossi-α method to calculate the prompt neutron decay constant (α) or its inverse, the prompt neutron period (1/α), for assemblies of fissionable material. This work evaluates a high-data-throughput measurement at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) with organic scintillators measuring a subcritical assembly of highly enriched uranium (HEU) metal (93% 235 U). The assembly comprises hemi shells stacked together to form fully closed shells and is driven by a Cf source at the center. The assembly is a total of 59.85 kg HEU and a k eff of 0.99, according to MCNP6.2 KCODE simulations. Measurements were acquired with a three-by-four array of 5.08-cm-diameter by 5.08-cm-length trans-stilbene crystals 166 cm from the assembly center. Two types of coincident binning methods are used to build the Rossi-α distribution of coincident neutron detections: A) type 1 binning, also known as any-and-all forward time differences, and B) type 1 binning with a digital-delay technique that is analogous to Orndoff’s use of delay cabling in early Rossi-alpha measurements. Method B) disregards same-detector coincidences and once all nearest time coincidences are collected between all detectors after a trigger, a time delay of 0.75 µs is implemented. The measured prompt neutron decay constants for both techniques are calculated from single exponential fits and the two methods are compared. Method A) shows an apparent timing discontinuity near 500 ns time differences. This timing discontinuity interferes with the fitting method used to calculate the prompt neutron decay constant. Method B) mitigates the artificial timing discontinuity and removes the disagreement of the fit. Future work will model the time-dependent detector response to discern why this timing discontinuity occurs, discern how Method B) reduces the amplitude of this timing discontinuity, and apply this method to critical assembly measurements to ultimately confirm the recommendation to use Method B) for high-data-throughput measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Scalable Gradient Free Method for Bayesian Experimental Design with Implicit Models

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is to answer the question that how to choose designs that maximize the information gathering. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling is possible, conventional BED methods have difficulties in efficiently estimating the posterior distribution and maximizing the mutual information (MI) between data and parameters. Recent work proposed the use of gradient ascent to maximize a lower bound on MI to deal with these issues. However, the approach requires a sampling path to compute the pathwise gradient of the MI lower bound with respect to the design variables, and such a pathwise gradient is usually inaccessible for implicit models. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages recent advances in stochastic approximate gradient ascent incorporated with a smoothed variational MI estimator for efficient and robust BED. Without the necessity of pathwise gradients, our approach allows the design process to be achieved through a unified procedure with an approximate gradient for implicit models. Several experiments show that our approach outperforms baseline methods, and significantly improves the scalability of BED in high-dimensional problems.

Zhang, Jiaxin↗

Assessment of Envelope- and Machine Learning-Based Electrical Fault Type Detection Algorithms for Electrical Distribution Grids

This study introduces envelope- and machine learning (ML)-based electrical fault type detection algorithms for electrical distribution grids, advancing beyond traditional logic-based methods. The proposed detection model involves three stages: anomaly area detection, ML-based fault presence detection, and ML-based fault type detection. Initially, an envelope-based detector identifying the anomaly region was improved to handle noisier power grid signals from meters. The second stage acts as a switch, detecting the presence of a fault among four classes: normal, motor, switching, and fault. Finally, if a fault is detected, the third stage identifies specific fault types. This study explored various feature extraction methods and evaluated different ML algorithms to maximize prediction accuracy. The performance of the proposed algorithms is tested in an emulated software–hardware electrical grid testbed using different sample rate meters/relays, such as SEL735, SEL421, SEL734, SEL700GT, and SEL351S near and far from an inverter-based photovoltaic array farm. The performance outcomes demonstrate the proposed model’s robustness and accuracy under realistic conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ultracompact mirror device for forming 20-nm achromatic soft-X-ray focus toward multimodal and multicolor nanoanalyses

Abstract Nanoscale soft-X-ray microscopy is a powerful analysis tool in biological, chemical, and physical sciences. To enhance its probe sensitivity and leverage multimodal soft-X-ray microscopy, precise achromatic focusing devices, which are challenging to fabricate, are essential. Here, we develop an ultracompact Kirkpatrick-Baez (ucKB) mirror, which is ideal for the high-performance nanofocusing of broadband-energy X-rays. We apply our advanced fabrication techniques and short-focal-length strategy to realize diffraction-limited focusing over the entire soft-X-ray range. We achieve a focus size of 20.4 nm at 2 keV, which represents a significant improvement in achromatic soft-X-ray focusing. The ucKB mirror extends soft-X-ray fluorescence microscopy by producing a bicolor nanoprobe with a 1- or 2-keV photon energy. We propose a subcellular chemical mapping method that allows a comprehensive analysis of specimen morphology and the distribution of light elements and metal elements. ucKB mirrors will improve soft-X-ray nanoanalyses by facilitating photon-hungry, multimodal, and polychromatic methods, even with table-top X-ray sources.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

A multi-mass and multi-hit two-camera 3D ion momentum imaging system

We demonstrate an improved two-camera system for multi-mass and multi-hit three-dimensional (3D) momentum imaging of ions. The imaging system employs two conventional complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor cameras. We have shown previously that the system can time slice ion Newton spheres with a time resolution of 8.8 ns, limited by camera timing jitter [J. Chem. Phys., 158, 191104 (2023)]. In this work, a jitter correction method was developed to suppress the camera jitter and improve the time resolution to better than 2 ns. With this resolution, full 3D momentum distributions of ions can be obtained. We further show that this method can detect two ions with different masses when utilizing both the rising and falling edges of the cameras.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗