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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

High-resolution mapping reveals hotspots and sex-biased recombination in Populus trichocarpa

Abstract Fine-scale meiotic recombination is fundamental to the outcome of natural and artificial selection. Here, dense genetic mapping and haplotype reconstruction were used to estimate recombination for a full factorial Populus trichocarpa cross of 7 males and 7 females. Genomes of the resulting 49 full-sib families (N = 829 offspring) were resequenced, and high-fidelity biallelic SNP/INDELs and pedigree information were used to ascertain allelic phase and impute progeny genotypes to recover gametic haplotypes. The 14 parental genetic maps contained 1,820 SNP/INDELs on average that covered 376.7 Mb of physical length across 19 chromosomes. Comparison of parental and progeny haplotypes allowed fine-scale demarcation of cross-over regions, where 38,846 cross-over events in 1,658 gametes were observed. Cross-over events were positively associated with gene density and negatively associated with GC content and long-terminal repeats. One of the most striking findings was higher rates of cross-overs in males in 8 out of 19 chromosomes. Regions with elevated male cross-over rates had lower gene density and GC content than windows showing no sex bias. High-resolution analysis identified 67 candidate cross-over hotspots spread throughout the genome. DNA sequence motifs enriched in these regions showed striking similarity to those of maize, Arabidopsis, and wheat. These findings, and recombination estimates, will be useful for ongoing efforts to accelerate domestication of this and other biomass feedstocks, as well as future studies investigating broader questions related to evolutionary history, perennial development, phenology, wood formation, vegetative propagation, and dioecy that cannot be studied using annual plant model systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fluctuation-driven excess noise near superconducting phase transition

We discuss intrinsic mechanisms of nonequilibrium excess noise in superconducting devices and transition edge sensors. In particular, we present an overview of fluctuation-driven contributions to the current noise in the vicinity of the superconducting transition. We argue that sufficiently close to the critical temperature fluctuations of conductivity may become correlated provided that the rate of quasiparticle relaxation is slow as compared to dynamics of superconducting fluctuations. In this regime, fluctuations of conductivity adiabatically follow the fluctuations of the electron distribution. This leads to a substantial enhancement of current noise. Here, the corresponding spectral power density of noise has a Lorentzian shape in the frequency domain while its magnitude scales proportionally to the inelastic relaxation time. It also sensitively depends on the dephasing and Ginzburg–Landau timescales. Further estimates suggest that this mechanism dominates over the conventional temperature fluctuations in the same range of parameters. To describe these effects microscopically, we use the nonequilibrium Keldysh technique in the semiclassical approximation of superconductivity with Boltzmann–Langevin random forces to account for correlations of fluctuations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploiting electricity market dynamics using flexible electrolysis units for retrofitting methanol synthesis

Here we investigate the economic viability of integrating flexible electrolysis units to produce hydrogen in methanol synthesis processes. Specifically, we investigate whether this approach can help reduce methanol production costs by strategically exploiting dynamics of electricity markets. Our study integrates high-fidelity process simulations, optimization tools, and microkinetic modeling (informed by density functional theory) to conduct detailed techno-economic analyses and to compare performance against traditional processes that use hydrogen produced via steam-methane reforming (SMR). We also use this approach to estimate the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) as a function of time-varying electricity prices (from day-ahead and real-time prices) and of key techno-economic parameters. Our results show that the proposed electrification framework is cost-competitive under certain electricity market conditions. Specifically, we find that, when the electrolysis system is operated in flexible mode (and can respond to dynamics of electricity markets), the associated electricity cost nearly collapses to zero. Conversely, when the unit is not flexible (and cannot respond to markets), the electricity cost comprises 60% of the total cost. Our results also reveal that the LCOH of the flexible electrolysis system participating in real-time electricity markets is 31% lower than the LCOH obtained from SMR. Overall, this indicates that exploiting the dynamics of electricity markets can make hydrogen production cost-competitive and this can lead to viable alternatives to electrify methanol production and other hydrogen-based processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Designing multicomponent hydrides with potential high T c superconductivity

While hydrogen-rich materials have been demonstrated to exhibit high T c superconductivity at high pressures, there is an ongoing search for ternary, quaternary, and more chemically complex hydrides that achieve such high critical temperatures at much lower pressures. First-principles searches are impeded by the computational complexity of solving the Eliashberg equations for large, complex crystal structures. Here, we adopt a simplified approach using electronic indicators previously established to be correlated with superconductivity in hydrides. This is used to study complex hydride structures, which are predicted to exhibit promisingly high critical temperatures for superconductivity. In particular, we propose three classes of hydrides inspired by the Fm$\overline{3}$ m RH 3 structures that exhibit strong hydrogen network connectivity, as defined through the electron localization function. The first class [RH 11 X 3 Y] is based on a Pm$\overline{3}$m structure showing moderately high T c , where the T c estimate from electronic properties is compared with direct Eliashberg calculations and found to be surprisingly accurate. The second class of structures [(RH 11 ) 2 X 6 YZ] improves on this with promisingly high density of states with dominant hydrogen character at the Fermi energy, typically enhancing T c . The third class [(R 1 H 11 )(R 2 H 11 )X 6 YZ] improves the strong hydrogen network connectivity by introducing anisotropy in the hydrogen network through a specific doping pattern. These design principles and associated model structures provide flexibility to optimize both T c and the structural stability of complex hydrides.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Significance of the structural configuration of B2 disorder in Co and Ti based Heusler alloys

We investigate here structural (at local and global levels) and transport properties for 𝑋 2 ⁢MnAl (𝑋= Co and Ti). Additionally, the magnetic properties were also studied for Ti 2 ⁢MnAl. Our x-ray diffraction results show that both the compounds stabilize in B2 disordered phase with cubic structure of 𝑃⁢𝑚⁢$\overline{3}$⁢𝑚 space group. Further, the structural configuration of the above disordered phase for both the compounds was identified using combined studies of x-ray absorption spectroscopy and multiple scattering calculations at the transition metal 𝐾 edges. Upon such identification, in the case of Co 2 ⁢Mn 1−𝑦⁢ Cr 𝑦 ⁢Al (𝑦= 0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2) with change in 𝑦, we are able to establish a better connection quantitatively between the inverse of Mn-Co bonds and peak in the temperature-dependent resistivity. This highlights the crucial importance of a detailed understanding of the nature of B2 disorder. In the case of 𝑦=0, in the temperature range of study, the resistivity is driven by the functional form associated with (a) three-dimensional enhanced electron-electron Coulomb interaction scattering mechanism and (b) an unconventional one-magnon process. For Ti 2 ⁢MnAl, the transport shows metallic glasslike behavior at high temperature, while at low temperature it follows both the Cote-Meisel's model and quantum correction model. In this compound, the magnetic studies suggest the formation of superparamagnetic clusters in the paramagnetic matrix at low temperatures. Our density functional theory results are in line with the transport and magnetic properties. In literature, the spin polarization percentage (𝑃) for 𝑋= Co in B2 disordered phase is 76%. However, the present results emphasize the fact that in B2 disordered phase, the value of 𝑃 can range from 90% to 71% depending on the structural configuration introduced by swapping of the atomic positions of Mn and Al. For the compound under study, the value of percentage spin polarization obtained ranges between 82% to 85%. In addition, we also identify the origin of the difference in the shape of the Mn 3⁢𝑑 density of states for both the alloys. In conclusion, our results for 𝑋= Co alloy highlights the importance of identifying the specific structural configuration associated with a particular disorder category especially in the estimation of 𝑇 𝑐 and 𝑃 and for 𝑋= Ti, the physical properties can be tuned by varying the position of 𝐸 𝐹 and thereby its utilization in device applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Proton pairing in neutron stars from chiral effective field theory

Here, we study the 1 S 0 proton pairing gap in beta-equilibrated neutron star matter within the framework of chiral effective field theory. We focus on the role of three-body forces, which strongly modify the effective proton-proton spin-singlet interaction in dense matter. We find that three-body forces generically reduce both the size of the pairing gap and the maximum density at which proton pairing may occur. The pairing gap is computed within BCS theory using a single-particle dispersion relation calculated up to second order in perturbation theory. Model uncertainties are estimated by varying the nuclear potential (its order in the chiral expansion and high-momentum cutoff) and the choice of single-particle spectrum in the gap equation. We find that a second-order perturbative treatment of the single-particle spectrum suppresses the proton 1 S 0 pairing gap relative to the use of a free spectrum. We estimate the critical temperature for the onset of proton superconductivity to be T c = (3:2–5:1) 10 9 K, which is consistent with previous theoretical results in the literature and marginally within the range deduced from a recent Bayesian analysis of neutron star cooling observations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping the gas density with the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich and patchy screening effects: A self-consistent comparison

The secondary anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) provide a wealth of astrophysical and cosmological information. Pairing measurements of the CMB temperature map obtained by DR5 of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) with the imaging survey conducted by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument for the purposes of target selection, DECaLS DR9, we investigate two effects that are sensitive to the gas density 𝜏: kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) and patchy screening or anisotropic screening (resulting from the Thomson scattering of CMB photons away from the line-of-sight by free electrons). In particular, we measure the stacked profiles of the gas density around luminous red galaxies (LRGs) at a mean redshift of 𝑧 ≈ 0.7. We detect the kSZ signal at 7.2⁢𝜎, and we find a signal at ∼ 4.1⁢𝜎 for the patchy screening estimator, which is in excess relative to the kSZ signal. We attribute this excess to contamination from CMB lensing. Here, we demonstrate the effect of lensing using 𝑁-body simulations, and we show that the screening signal is dominated by it. Accounting for lensing, our measurement places a 95% upper bound on the optical depth of the Extended DESI LRG sample of 𝜏 < 2.5 10 −4 for a mean value of the sample of 𝜏 ≈ 1.6 10 −4 . Furthermore, via hydro simulations, we show that the underlying optical depth signal measured by both effects (after removing the CMB lensing contribution) is in perfect agreement when adopting either a compensated aperture photometry (CAP) filter or a high-pass filter. Consistent with previous measurements, we see evidence for excess baryonic feedback around DESI LRGs in the patchy screening measurement. In the future, when both effects can be measured with high signal-to-noise, one can measure the amplitude ratio between them, which is proportional to the root-mean-square velocity of the host halo sample, and even place constraints on velocity-sensitive models such as modified gravity and phantom dark energy.

Astrophysical & cosmological simulations↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating National-Scale Wind Potential Using Spatially Explicit Turbine Layout Optimization

National renewable energy potential assessments play a broad and critical role in analysis of the clean energy transition by providing foundational estimates of developable clean resources. Common to all past wind potential assessments is an assumption that wraps the complexity of wind plant layout (arrangement of turbines) into a single metric known as capacity density, or rated power capacity per unit of land area. Quite often, a singular capacity density or rotor-diameter driven capacity density is used in wind potential assessments across broad geographies despite the complexities of local drivers. Here, we present a new wind technical potential assessment for the United States, leveraging a spatial optimization approach in lieu of the traditional uniform capacity density. The optimization approach is a spatially explicit method for determining the potential locations of individual wind turbines-taking into account the turbine configuration, plant economics and losses, wind resource, and siting considerations. Our approach accounts for the interactions between wind technology design, wind plant layout, and the vast array of regulatory, land use and infrastructure conflicts with wind development. Our results highlight the potential ability of larger turbines to enable increased wind capacity, up to a point, and increased generation when siting turbines in and around spatial constraints; moreover, they demonstrate and capture the LCOE benefit of relatively lower capacity densities and reduced wake losses when land is relatively abundant. These insights provide foundational knowledge for the wind sector as it develops and pursues future turbine models and as wind energy markets expand in zero-carbon futures. Further, when applied in capacity expansion models, supply curves developed by these methods can provide detailed local insights about where wind turbines might be deployed in and among known siting constraints for those regions where wind energy is determined to be economic, providing critical nuance to local decision-makers and stakeholders.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Organic carbon burial by river meandering partially offsets bank erosion carbon fluxes in a discontinuous permafrost floodplain

Abstract. Arctic river systems erode permafrost in their banks and mobilize particulate organic carbon (OC). Meandering rivers can entrain particulate OC from permafrost many meters below the depth of annual thaw, potentially enabling the production of greenhouse gases. However, the amount and fate of permafrost OC that is mobilized by river erosion is uncertain. To constrain OC fluxes due to riverbank erosion and deposition, we collected riverbank and floodplain sediment samples along the Koyukuk River, which meanders through discontinuous permafrost in the Yukon River watershed, Alaska, USA, with an average migration rate of 0.52 m yr−1. We measured sediment total OC (TOC) content, radiocarbon activity, water content, bulk density, grain size, and floodplain stratigraphy. Radiocarbon activity and TOC content were higher in samples dominated by silt as compared to sand, which we used to map OC content onto floodplain stratigraphy and estimate carbon fluxes due to river meandering. Results showed that the Koyukuk River erodes and re-deposits a substantial flux of OC each year due to its depth and high migration rate, generating a combined OC flux of a similar magnitude to the floodplain net ecological productivity. However, sediment being eroded from cutbanks and deposited as point bars had similar OC stocks (mean ± 1 SD of 125.3±13.1 kg OC m−2 in cutbanks versus 114.0±15.7 kg OC m−2 in point bars) whether or not the banks contained permafrost. We also observed radiocarbon-depleted biospheric OC in both cutbanks and permafrost-free point bars. These results indicate that a substantial fraction of aged biospheric OC that is liberated from floodplains by bank erosion is subsequently re-deposited in point bars rather than being oxidized. The process of aging, erosion, and re-deposition of floodplain organic material may be intrinsic to river–floodplain dynamics, regardless of permafrost content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Investigation of a Phase Change Material Charged Serpentine Heat Exchanger with Louvered Fins

Phase change material heat exchangers (PCM-HX) can be used as a latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) component in heat pump applications to further enhance the efficiency of a heat pump as well as to yield financial savings by peak-load shifting. In this paper, a low-cost commercially available aluminum serpentine heat exchanger with louvered fins was experimentally investigated to check its thermal performance as a PCM-HX. A transparent rectangular box fabricated from acrylic plates served as a PCM container. Two cameras were used to capture the phase change process of the PCM on the front and top sides of the container during the experiment. A total of 88 installed temperature sensors throughout the test setup and a mass flow meter enabled a quantitative analysis of the PCM-HX as well. The energy balance deviation between the estimated theoretical and experimentally calculated PCM storage was ±14% considering the often-neglected heat loss and thermal mass of the PCM-HX. PCM temperature profiles, charge and discharge rates, and energy densities under different test conditions were also investigated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The VST ATLAS quasar survey I: Catalogue of photometrically selected quasar candidates

We present the VST ATLAS Quasar Survey, consisting of ~1229 000 quasar (QSO) candidates with 16 < g < 22.5 over ~4700 deg 2 . The catalogue is based on VST ATLAS+NEOWISE imaging surveys and aims to reach a QSO sky density of 130 deg –2 for $z$ < 2.2 and ~30 deg –2 for $z$ > 2.2. To guide our selection, we use X-ray/UV/optical/MIR data in the extended William Herschel Deep Field (WHDF) where we find a g < 22.5 broad-line QSO density of 269 ± 67 deg –2 , roughly consistent with the expected ~196 deg –2 . We find that ~25 per cent of our QSOs are morphologically classed as optically extended. Overall, we find that in these deep data, MIR, UV, and X-ray selections are ~70–90 per cent complete while X-ray suffers less contamination than MIR and UV. MIR is however more sensitive than X-ray or UV to $z$ > 2.2 QSOs at g < 22.5 and the S X (0.5 – 10 keV) > 1 X 10 -14 ergs cm –2 s –1 limit of eROSITA. We adjust the selection criteria from our previous 2QDES pilot survey and prioritize VST ATLAS candidates that show both UV and MIR excess, also selecting candidates initially classified as extended. We test our selections using data from DESI (which will be released in DR1) and 2dF to estimate the efficiency and completeness, and we use ANNz2 to determine photometric redshifts. Applying over the ~4700 deg 2 ATLAS area gives us ~ 917 000 $z$ < 2.2 QSO candidates of which 472 000 are likely to be $z$ < 2.2 QSOs, implying a sky density of ~100 deg –2 , which our WHDF analysis suggests will rise to at least 130 deg –2 when eROSITA X-ray candidates are included. At $z$ > 2.2, we find ~310() 000 candidates, of which 169 000 are likely to be QSOs for a sky density of ~36 deg –2 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dipole Moment Calculations Using Multiconfiguration Pair-Density Functional Theory and Hybrid Multiconfiguration Pair-Density Functional Theory

The dipole moment is the molecular property that most directly indicates molecular polarity. The accuracy of computed dipole moments depends strongly on the quality of the calculated electron density, and the breakdown of single-reference methods for strongly correlated systems can lead to poor predictions of the dipole moments in those cases. Here, we derive the analytical expression for obtaining the electric dipole moment by multiconfiguration pair density functional theory (MCPDFT), and we assess the accuracy of MC-PDFT for predicting dipole moments at equilibrium and nonequilibrium geometries. We show that MC-PDFT dipole moment curves have reasonable behavior even for stretched geometries, and they significantly improve upon the CASSCF results by capturing more electron correlation. Herein, the analysis of a dataset consisting of 18 first-row transition metal diatomics and 6 main-group polyatomic molecules with multireference character suggests that MC-PDFT and its hybrid extension (HMC-PDFT) perform comparably to CASPT2 and MRCISD+Q methods and have a mean unsigned deviation of 0.2–0.3 D with respect to the best available dipole moment reference values. We explored the dependence of the predicted dipole moments upon the choice of the on-top density functional and active space, and we recommend the tPBE and hybrid tPBE0 on-top choices for the functionals combined with the moderate correlated participating orbital scheme for selecting the active space. With these choices, the mean unsigned deviations (in debyes) of the calculated equilibrium dipole moments from the best estimates are 0.77 for CASSCF, 0.29 for MC-PDFT, 0.24 for HMCPDFT, 0.28 for CASPT2, and 0.25 for MRCISD+Q. These results are encouraging because the computational cost of MC-PDFT or HMC-PDFT is largely reduced compared to the CASPT2 and MRCISD+Q methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the effects of thermally-induced density gradients on the hydrodynamic behavior of PBX 9502

High explosives are often exposed to thermal and mechanical stimuli within normal and abnormal environments. These stimuli can introduce density gradients in the explosive charge but the effect of such gradients is not well-understood. The goal of this work is to develop a comprehensive methodology to model the evolution of density gradients under various thermal conditions and then to predict shock initiation and detonation behavior of the gradated sample. PBX 9502 was chosen for these scoping studies because it has a large coefficient of thermal expansion and because the available shock initiation data indicates that initial temperature strongly affects the shock-to-detonation transition (SDT). The multiphysics code COMSOL was first used to model induced density gradients in a slab of PBX 9502 with asymmetric heating. Then, the gradated sample was constructed in the Pagosa hydrocode to simulate steel flyer impact scenarios, with SDT and detonation propagation following a calibrated Scaled Uniform Reactive Front (SURF) burn model. Furthermore, the gradated material exhibited very different initiation and corner turning behavior compared to homogeneous materials, and the orientation of the gradation was also found to have some effect. The methodology used here can estimate thermomechanical response of the material for non-uniform thermal environments and compute the resulting detonation properties of the PBX.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the contributions to acoustic nonlinearity from complex dislocation networks using 3D dislocation dynamics

Nonlinear ultrasonic parameters are highly sensitive to microstructural features that affect macroscale material behavior, providing a nondestructive means to characterize their evolution. Although dislocations are known to be a strong source of acoustic nonlinearity, establishing quantitative links between the acoustic nonlinearity parameter (β), measured via Second Harmonic Generation, and dislocation morphology—such as dislocation length and density—remains an open challenge. This work advances the numerical modeling of dislocation–β relationships using 3D dislocation dynamics (DD) simulations in two approaches: a “static” method computing strain and stress fields from dislocation configurations in the absence of external loading, and a “quasi-static” method to estimate β from the curvature of dislocation lines under applied load. First, the static method is combined with finite element analysis to investigate a recent assertion that heterogeneous initial strain fields can induce higher harmonic generation in a linear elastic medium; the present results do not corroborate this outcome. Then, the quasi-static method is applied to multiple-dislocation scenarios through parametric studies, revealing behaviors not predicted by analytical models, such as the competing interactions of edge and screw dislocations and the significant influence of applied stress on β. Finally, the simulations are used to model SHG experimental results and validate the hypothesis that β can decrease during plastic deformation, despite increasing dislocation density. As the DD code used here is open-source, it provides a practical platform for future investigation into microstructure–β relationships important to the interpretation of SHG results.

Materials science↗
DOE OSTI2023

Formation of Amorphous Carbon Multi‐Walled Nanotubes from Random Initial Configurations

Amorphous carbon nanotubes (a‐CNT) with up to four walls and sizes ranging from 200 to 3200 atoms have been simulated, starting from initial random configurations and using the Gaussian Approximation Potential. The important variables (like density, height, and diameter) required to successfully simulate a‐CNTs were predicted with the machine learning random forest technique. The width of the a‐CNT models ranged between 0.55–2 nm with an average inter‐wall spacing of 0.31 nm. The topological defects in a‐CNTs were analyzed and new defect configurations were observed. The electronic density of states and localization in these phases were discussed and delocalized electrons in the π subspace were identified as an important factor for inter‐layer cohesion. Spatial projection of the electronic conductivity favors axial transport along connecting hexagons, while non‐hexagonal parts of the network either hinder or bifurcate the electronic transport. A vibrational density of states was calculated and is potentially an experimentally comparable fingerprint of the material. The appearance of a low‐frequency radial breathing mode was discussed and the thermal conductivity at 300 K was estimated using the Green‐Kubo formula.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

In search of large signals at the cosmological collider

We look for oscillating signals in the primordial bispectrum from new physics heavy particles which are visibly large for next generation large scale structures (LSS) survey. We show that in ordinary inflation scenarios where a slow-rolling inflaton generates density fluctuations and with no breaking of scale invariance or spacetime symmetry, there exist no naturally large signals unless the rolling inflaton generates a parity-odd chemical potential for the heavy particles. We estimate the accessibility of this signal through observations. While current CMB data are already sensitive in the most optimistic scenario, future probes, including LSS survey and 21 cm observation, can cover interesting regions of the model space.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗