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DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference in band excitation scanning probe microscopy for optimal dynamic model selection in imaging

The universal tendency in scanning probe microscopy (SPM) over the last two decades is to transition from simple 2D imaging to complex detection and spectroscopic imaging modes. The emergence of complex SPM engines brings forth the challenge of reliable data interpretation, i.e., conversion from detected signals to descriptors specific to tip–surface interactions and subsequently to material’s properties. In this work, we implemented a Bayesian inference approach for the analysis of the image formation mechanisms in band excitation SPM. Compared to the point estimates in classical functional fit approaches, Bayesian inference allows for the incorporation of extant knowledge of materials and probe behavior in the form of corresponding prior distribution and return the information on the material functionality in the form of readily interpretable posterior distributions. We explore the nonlinear mechanical behaviors spatially in a classical ferroelectric material, PbTiO 3 . We observe the non-trivial evolution of the Duffing stiffness term and the nonlinearity of the sample surface, determine spatial clustering of the nonlinear response, and perform a Landau analysis on predicting the nonlinear coefficient, which indicates that ferroelectric behavior can be a cause of the observed results. These observations suggest that the spectrum of anomalous behaviors at the ferroelectric domain walls may be broader than previously believed and can extend to non-conventional mechanical properties in addition to static and microwave conductance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

The TESS–Keck Survey. I. A Warm Sub-Saturn-mass Planet and a Caution about Stray Light in TESS Cameras

We report the detection of a Saturn-size exoplanet orbiting HD 332231 (TOI 1456) in light curves from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). HD 332231—an F8 dwarf star with a V-band magnitude of 8.56—was observed by TESS in Sectors 14 and 15. We detect a single-transit event in the Sector 15 presearch data conditioning (PDC) light curve. We obtain spectroscopic follow-up observations of HD 332231 with the Automated Planet Finder, Keck I, and SONG telescopes. The orbital period we infer from radial velocity (RV) observations leads to the discovery of another transit in Sector 14 that was masked by PDC due to scattered light contamination. A joint analysis of the transit and RV data confirms the planetary nature of HD 332231 b, a Saturn-size (0.867{sub −0.025}{sup +0.027} R{sub J}), sub-Saturn-mass (0.244±0.021 M{sub J}) exoplanet on a 18.71 day circular orbit. The low surface gravity of HD 332231 b and the relatively low stellar flux it receives make it a compelling target for transmission spectroscopy. Also, the stellar obliquity is likely measurable via the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect, an exciting prospect given the 0.14 au orbital separation of HD 332231 b. The spectroscopic observations do not provide substantial evidence for any additional planets in the HD 332231 system, but continued RV monitoring is needed to further characterize this system. We also predict that the frequency and duration of masked data in the PDC light curves for TESS Sectors 14–16 could hide transits of some exoplanets with orbital periods between 10.5 and 17.5 days.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Proper Motions, Orbits, and Tidal Influences of Milky Way Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies

We combine Gaia early data release 3 astrometry with accurate photometry and utilize a probabilistic mixture model to measure the systemic proper motion of 52 dwarf spheroidal (dSph) satellite galaxies of the Milky Way (MW). For the 46 dSphs with literature line-of-sight velocities we compute orbits in both a MW and a combined MW + Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) potential and identify Car II, Car III, Hor I, Hyi I, Phx II, and Ret II as likely LMC satellites. 40% of our dSph sample has a >25% change in pericenter and/or apocenter with the MW + LMC potential. For these orbits, we use a Monte Carlo sample for the observational uncertainties for each dSph and the uncertainties in the MW and LMC potentials. We predict that Ant II, Boo III, Cra II, Gru II, and Tuc III should be tidally disrupting by comparing each dSph's average density relative to the MW density at its pericenter. dSphs with large ellipticity (CVn I, Her, Tuc V, UMa I, UMa II, UMi, Wil 1) show a preference for their orbital direction to align with their major axis even for dSphs with large pericenters. We compare the dSph radial orbital phase to subhalos in MW-like N-body simulations and infer that there is not an excess of satellites near their pericenter. With projections of future Gaia data releases, we find that dSph's orbital precision will be limited by uncertainties in the distance and/or MW potential rather than in proper motion precision. Finally, we provide our membership catalogs to enable community follow-up.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data Collection and Analysis Challenges and Mitigation Strategies for Quantitative Human Factors Research Studies in Nuclear Power Plant Modernization

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program Plant Modernization Pathway is conducting targeted research and development (R&D) to address aging and reliability concerns with the legacy instrumentation and control and related information systems of the U.S. LWR fleet. In this effort, the application of human factors engineering (HFE) provides an important role in ensuring new digital plant technologies enable broad innovation and business improvement with continued operational safety. Evaluation is a key activity in HFE, which often occurs iteratively through the system design lifecycle. While qualitative methods are important in collecting information of how users perform tasks through observations, quantitative methods are equally important in assessing system design based on performance. In collecting and analyzing this quantitative data, there are notable challenges in the nuclear HFE domain that may threaten the validity and reliability of the inferences made in these studies. Notable challenges include small sample size and limited resources, large error variance and small effect size, an “adding test features to losing degrees of freedom” dilemma, non-normal distribution, and heterogeneity of variance. The results in control room usability studies are often statistically non-significant, which makes it hard to interpret. This work discusses these challenges across different scientific viewpoints and provides real-world examples of these challenges in practice. Collectively, the objective of this work is to position these challenges to the larger data science community as a means of identifying future opportunities to address these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Weak Lensing And Cosmology In The Dark Energy Survey

In this PhD Thesis, we present studies which aim at understanding and testing the fundamental assumptions of the $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model. We initially show that weak gravitational lensing can be derived as a consequence of General Relativity, and that it can be applied to astronomical data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) in order to constrain the amplitude of matter fluctuations in the universe. This constraint can be used as an end-to-end cosmological test when it is compared to inferences from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We further extend the cosmological model to account for non-standard parameters which can point to novel physics, and use DES data to assess their statistical significance. We finally show that the Cold Dark Matter (CDM) paradigm can also be fundamentally tested with observational data using morphological signatures of disk galaxies in cluster environments if CDM is self-interacting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Polymer Size–Catalytic Activity Relationships in Solution by Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy

Measuring the catalytic activity of specific sizes of polymers with active catalysts in solution is typically challenging, due to limited instrument detection sensitivity and/or dynamic range. Here, a fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) method is developed to determine the catalytic activity of living polymers of a specific apparent size in solution. Deviation from a single-component FCS data fitting, as assessed by χ2, is also introduced and developed as a “speciation index”—a method to evaluate and track changes in the relative amount of distinct polymer sizes with reaction progress. These methods are enabled by incorporating a selectively reactive fluorescent monomer into growing polydicyclopentadiene or polynorbornene during ring-opening metathesis polymerization (ROMP). Compared to polynorbornene, data showed that catalysts in aggregates of polyDCPD retained higher activity for longer—outcomes not directly inferable from simple diffusional-access predictions. Here, the ability to assign catalytic activity to polymers of specific sizes, and then to determine how this activity evolves with reaction progress, support long-term goals in the development and measurement of nano-objects that possess size-dependent catalytic activity.

Active catalyst↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Soil Thermal Inertia Profiles From the Passive Equilibration of a Temperature Probe

Knowledge of the distribution of soil thermal properties is important for understanding subsurface hydrological and biogeochemical processes. This study describes and evaluates quick thermal profiling (QTP), a new measurement technique aimed at providing rapid, depth-resolved measurements of soil thermal inertia at numerous locations across the landscape. A cylindrical probe with temperature sensors at multiple depths is quickly inserted into the ground, and soil thermal inertia is estimated from how quickly the probe temperature equilibrates with the soil. To this end, a finite volume heat transfer model is used to generate temperature equilibration time series across combinations of controlling factors, and a gridded search inversion approach is applied to infer soil thermal inertia. Field tests in the Arctic indicate that QTP measurements have a minimum uncertainty of 0.14 J m −2 K −1 s −1/2 and covary with dual-probe heat pulse thermal analyzer measurements (concordance correlation coefficient = 0.56) with a root-mean-square error of 0.40 J m −2 K −1 s −1/2 . Besides demonstrating the value of QTP for estimating thermal inertia, this study identifies various sources of measurement uncertainty, particularly probe-soil contact resistance and frictional heating. Further, analysis of soil samples indicates that thermal inertia can be used to estimate thermal conductivity and dry bulk density in the studied area, although such inferences are highly site-specific. Overall, the QTP method holds promise to generate thermal inertia data products and to complement other characterization approaches for advancing understanding of soil properties across far more locations than is currently possible.

Lamb, J. R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of an imploding cylindrical plasma for electron transport studies using x-ray emission spectroscopy

We report here on the characterization of the conditions of an imploding cylindrical plasma by time-resolved x-ray emission spectroscopy. Knowledge about this implosion platform can be applied to studies of particle transport for inertial confinement fusion schemes or to astrophysical plasmas. A cylindrical Cl-doped CH foam within a tube of solid CH was irradiated by 36 beams (I total ~5×10 14 W/cm 2 , 1.5ns square pulse, and E total ~ 16.2kJ) of the OMEGA-60 laser to radially compress the CH toward the axis. The analysis of the time-resolved spectra showed that the compression can be described by four distinct phases, each presenting different plasma conditions. First the ablation of the cylinder is dominant; second, the foam is heated and induces a significant jump in emission intensities; third, the temperature and density of the foam reaches a maximum; and finally, the plasma expands. Ranges for the plasma temperature were inferred with the atomic physics code SCRAM (Spectroscopic Collisional-Radiative Atomic Model) and the experimental data have been compared to hydrodynamic simulations performed with the 2D code FLASH, which showed a similar implosion dynamic over time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

From minimum-viable-products to full models: a step-wise development of diagnostic forward models in support of design, analysis and modelling on the ST40 tokamak

Like most magnetic confined fusion experiments, the ST40 tokamak started off with a small subset of diagnostics and gradually increased the diagnostic set to include more complex and comprehensive systems. To make the most of each operational phase, forward models of various diagnostics are used and developed to aid design, provide consistency-checks during commissioning, test analysis methods, and build workflows to constrain high-level parameters to inform interpretation, theory and modelling. For new models and new analysis workflows, minimum-viable-products are released early, and their complexity is increased in a step-wise manner, facilitating the support of all programme phases on multiple parallel applications, while enabling learning opportunities and feedback loops. In this contribution we review the philosophy, scope and architecture of the framework under development. We discuss the details of some forward models, with examples on how they are used to aid diagnostic design, to investigate analysis methodologies through synthetic data, and how they are embedded in experimental analysis workflows. We compare previously published experimental results with new, more advanced analysis workflows employing more recent, detailed models and new diagnostic data, providing confirmation of the published material from the 2021–22 experimental campaign.

integrated data analysis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Vacuum energy density measured from cosmological data

Within the ΛCDM cosmological model, the absolute value of Einstein's cosmological constant Λ, sometimes expressed as the gravitating mass-energy density ρΛ of the physical vacuum, is a fundamental constant of nature, whose accurate measurement plays a central role in testing some proposed theories of quantum gravity. Several combinations of currently public cosmological data and an assumed flat ΛCDM cosmological model are used here to make a joint Bayesian inference on the combination of conventional parameters Ω Λ h 2 that corresponds to the absolute physical density ρΛ. In physical units, we obtain ρ Λ = (60.3 ± 1.3)× 10 -31 g/cm 3 , the most accurate constraint to date, with an absolute calibration of cosmological measurements based on CMB temperature. Significantly different values are obtained with calibrations that use a local distance scale, mainly connected to systematic differences in the value of the Hubble constant. Furthermore, it is suggested that future comprehensive cosmological parameter studies assuming the ΛCDM model include constraints on the vacuum density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fiducial-cosmology-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 full-shape analysis

We assess the impact of the fiducial cosmology choice on cosmological inference from full-shape (FS) fits of the galaxy power spectrum in the DESI 2024 Data Release 1 (DR1). Using a suite of AbacusSummit DR1 mock catalogues based on the Planck 2018 best-fit cosmology, we quantify potential systematic shifts introduced by analysing the data under five secondary cosmologies — featuring variations in matter density, thawing dark energy, higher effective number of neutrino species, reduced clustering amplitude, and the DESI DR1 BAO best-fit w 0 w a CDM cosmology — relative to DESI's baseline Planck 2018 cosmology. We investigate two complementary FS analysis approaches: full-modelling (FM) and ShapeFit (SF), each with distinct sensitivities to the assumed fiducial model. Across all tracers, we find for FM that systematic shifts induced by fiducial cosmology mismatches remain well below the DESI DR1 statistical uncertainties, with maximum deviations of 0.22σ DR1 in ΛCDM scenarios and 0.12σ DR1+SN when including SN Ia mock data in extended w 0 w a CDM fits. For SF, the shifts in the compressed parameters remain below 0.45σ DR1 for all tracers and cosmologies.

dark energy experiments↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: marginalization over redshift distribution uncertainties using ranking of discrete realizations

ABSTRACT Cosmological information from weak lensing surveys is maximized by sorting source galaxies into tomographic redshift subsamples. Any uncertainties on these redshift distributions must be correctly propagated into the cosmological results. We present hyperrank, a new method for marginalizing over redshift distribution uncertainties, using discrete samples from the space of all possible redshift distributions, improving over simple parametrized models. In hyperrank, the set of proposed redshift distributions is ranked according to a small (between one and four) number of summary values, which are then sampled, along with other nuisance parameters and cosmological parameters in the Monte Carlo chain used for inference. This approach can be regarded as a general method for marginalizing over discrete realizations of data vector variation with nuisance parameters, which can consequently be sampled separately from the main parameters of interest, allowing for increased computational efficiency. We focus on the case of weak lensing cosmic shear analyses and demonstrate our method using simulations made for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We show that the method can correctly and efficiently marginalize over a wide range of models for the redshift distribution uncertainty. Finally, we compare hyperrank to the common mean-shifting method of marginalizing over redshift uncertainty, validating that this simpler model is sufficient for use in the DES Year 3 cosmology results presented in companion papers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-time neutron multiplicity and source localization for criticality safety during fuel debris removal

Advancing neutron detection and analysis techniques for complex radiation environments is an ongoing focus in nuclear instrumentation and monitoring. This proposal presents research and development of a generalized real-time neutron monitoring and analysis system, applicable to any detector capable of producing time-tagged neutron count data. While the work is demonstrated using the Neutron Multiplication Analysis Detector (NoMAD), a modular 15-tube helium-3 (He-3) array, due to its availability, spatial resolution, and flexible deployment, the methods developed are extensible to other systems, including organic scintillators and fast digital detectors. This research investigates two complementary analytical techniques for real-time characterization of neutron emitting sources: neutron multiplicity estimation based on the Hage-Cifarelli formalism and spatial localization using supervised machine learning applied to spatial count rate patterns. These methods are designed to operate under dynamic, evolving conditions such as fuel debris retrieval or reactor startup, where neutron-emitting material geometries may be partially unknown or changing over time. By integrating statistical neutron emission data with spatial localization, this research aims to develop and evaluate methods for real time neutron monitoring, source characterization, and material verification. Key contributions include implementation of a low-latency data pipeline for continuous neutron multiplicity analysis, development and validation of machine learning models for spatial inference, and experimental evaluation of system performance under variable measurement conditions. The outcomes are intended to support applications in nuclear safeguards, verification, emergency response, and reactor startup.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Dependence of Iron-rich Metal-poor Star Occurrence on Galactic Environment Supports an Origin in Thermonuclear Supernova Nucleosynthesis

It has been suggested that a class of chemically peculiar metal-poor stars called iron-rich metal-poor (IRMP) stars formed from molecular cores with metal contents dominated by thermonuclear supernova nucleosynthesis. If this interpretation is accurate, then IRMP stars should be more common in environments where thermonuclear supernovae were important contributors to chemical evolution. Conversely, IRMP stars should be less common in environments where thermonuclear supernovae were not important contributors to chemical evolution. At constant [Fe/H] ≲ -1, the Milky Way's satellite classical dwarf spheroidal (dSph) galaxies and the Magellanic Clouds have lower [α/Fe] than the Milky Way field and globular cluster populations. This difference is thought to demonstrate the importance of thermonuclear supernova nucleosynthesis for the chemical evolution of the Milky Way's satellite classical dSph galaxies and the Magellanic Clouds. We use data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment and Gaia to infer the occurrence of IRMP stars in the Milky Way's satellite classical dSph galaxies η dSph and the Magellanic Clouds η Mag , as well as in the Milky Way field η MWF and globular cluster populations η MWGC . In order of decreasing occurrence, we find η dSph = $0.07$$^{+0.02}_{-0.02}$, η Mag = $0.037$$^{+0.007}_{-0.006}$, η MWF = $0.0013$$^{+0.0006}_{-0.0005}$, and a 1σ upper limit η MWGC < 0.00057. These occurrences support the inference that IRMP stars formed in environments dominated by thermonuclear supernova nucleosynthesis and that the time lag between the formation of the first and second stellar generations in globular clusters was longer than the thermonuclear supernova delay time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using "AI Poincare" to analyze non-linear integrable optics

This study dives into the applicability of using automated discovery of conserved quantities in dynamical systems relevant to accelerator physics. Specifically, we explore the performance of AI Poincaré in analyzing numerical trajectory data obtained using the McMillan system of non-linear integrable optics. A comprehensive evaluation of the algorithm's performance is conducted through diverse methodologies. These include the analysis of the estimated number of conserved quantities embedded in a dataset and the deviation of interpolated points on the inferred manifold with respect to points in actually in the dataset. the investigation identifies an optimal range of perturbation distances where the underlying manifold extraction algorithm inside AI Poincaré exhibits optimal performance. Additionally, an improved neural network architecture is proposed based on the observed results. Finally, we apply the algorithm to preliminary experimental data from the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator at Fermilab to successfully infer the number of conserved quantities even in the presence of fast decoherence of the measured signal.

Osmanov, Lazare [Free U. Tbilisi]↗