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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Load Profile Inpainting for Missing Load Data Restoration and Baseline Estimation

This paper introduces a Generative Adversarial Nets (GAN) based, Load Profile Inpainting Network (Load-PIN) for restoring missing load data segments and estimating the baseline for a demand response event. The inputs are time series load data before and after the inpainting period together with explanatory variables (e.g., weather data). Here, we propose a Generator structure consisting of a coarse network and a fine-tuning network. The coarse network provides an initial estimation of the data segment in the inpainting period. The fine-tuning network consists of self-attention blocks and gated convolution layers for adjusting the initial estimations. Loss functions are specially designed for the fine-tuning and the discriminator networks to enhance both the point-to-point accuracy and realisticness of the results. We test the Load-PIN on three real-world data sets for two applications: patching missing data and deriving baselines of conservation voltage reduction (CVR) events. We benchmark the performance of Load-PIN with five existing deep-learning methods. Our simulation results show that, compared with the state-of-the-art methods, Load-PIN can handle varying-length missing data events and achieve 15-30% accuracy improvement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results

We report on the implications for cosmic inflation of the 2018 release of the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements. The results are fully consistent with those reported using the data from the two previous Planck cosmological releases, but have smaller uncertainties thanks to improvements in the characterization of polarization at low and high multipoles. Planck temperature, polarization, and lensing data determine the spectral index of scalar perturbations to be n s = 0.9649 ± 0.0042 at 68% CL. We find no evidence for a scale dependence of n s , either as a running or as a running of the running. The Universe is found to be consistent with spatial flatness with a precision of 0.4% at 95% CL by combining Planck with a compilation of baryon acoustic oscillation data. The Planck 95% CL upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r0.002 < 0.10, is further tightened by combining with the BICEP2/Keck Array BK15 data to obtain r 0.002 < 0.056. In the framework of standard single-field inflationary models with Einstein gravity, these results imply that: (a) the predictions of slow-roll models with a concave potential, V"(Φ) < 0, are increasingly favoured by the data; and (b) based on two different methods for reconstructing the inflaton potential, we find no evidence for dynamics beyond slow roll. Three different methods for the non-parametric reconstruction of the primordial power spectrum consistently confirm a pure power law in the range of comoving scales 0.005 Mpc -1 ≲ k ≲ 0.2 Mpc -1 . A complementary analysis also finds no evidence for theoretically motivated parameterized features in the Planck power spectra. For the case of oscillatory features that are logarithmic or linear in k, this result is further strengthened by a new combined analysis including the Planck bispectrum data. The new Planck polarization data provide a stringent test of the adiabaticity of the initial conditions for the cosmological fluctuations. In correlated, mixed adiabatic and isocurvature models, the non-adiabatic contribution to the observed CMB temperature variance is constrained to 1.3%, 1.7%, and 1.7% at 95% CL for cold dark matter, neutrino density, and neutrino velocity, respectively. Planck power spectra plus lensing set constraints on the amplitude of compensated cold dark matter-baryon isocurvature perturbations that are consistent with current complementary measurements. The polarization data also provide improved constraints on inflationary models that predict a small statistically anisotropic quadupolar modulation of the primordial fluctuations. However, the polarization data do not support physical models for a scale-dependent dipolar modulation. All these findings support the key predictions of the standard single-field inflationary models, which will be further tested by future cosmological observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Technology for Predictive Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can help simplify complex problems, such as diagnosing equipment degradation, to enable more effective decision-making. Benefits will be felt not only within existing analog and digital instrumentation and control, but also work processes, the integration of people with technology, and most importantly, the business case. Together, these hold promise to make nuclear power more efficient and reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance. While the artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies hold significant promise in the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. This report outlines the those different machine learning adoption barriers (categorized as historical, technical, economic, regulatory, and user) that the industry must overcome to realize the full benefits of artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for long-term economic sustainability. This report also provides solutions for some of these barriers by focusing on improving the explainability of machine learning to encourage trust from the end-user. Trust and explainability are essential to machine learning adoption. This report focuses on research-developed solutions to some of these barriers while analyzing a non-safety-related system, namely the circulating water system. This system frequently experiences waterbox fouling which our models preemptively diagnoses then explains to the operator how those conclusions were reached. This report presents and discusses the inherent trade-off between machine learning performance (in terms of accuracy) and explainability, where highly accurate machine learning methods (such as deep-learning) are the least explainable, and the most explainable methods (such as decision trees) are the least accurate. In addition, explainability of artificial intelligence techniques in terms of transparency and post-hoc metrics are discussed. This report outlines the importance of data novelty and value of new information in evaluating both the explainability and trustworthiness. Novelty detection helps to establish consistency or inconsistency of the new data with respect to the training data. On the other hand, value of information could be a part of the user-centric visualization recommendation system that request additional information to be collected, thereby strengthening the machine learning outcomes. During this project, a copyrighted user-centric visualization that aligns with a human-in-the-loop approach was developed. The user-centric visualization presents different levels of information and can be tailored as per user credentials to gain user confidence. One of the salient features of the user-centric visualization is it presents machine learning methods with explainability metrics. A simplified version of the user-centric visualization was presented to 32 users with varying levels of machine learning expertise. Feedback was solicited to test the hypothesis that the app contained sufficient explainability and that the users would trust the algorithm. Overall, the app was positively received, and the hypothesis was supported. This report discusses the trust-but-verify framework – a potential approach to build user trust artificial intelligence. The framework discusses trust from the human level to artificial intelligence level. The fundamental premise of the trust but verify framework is derived from an observation of nuclear safety culture (i.e., nuclear power plant personnel do not rely on a singular source of data to make a decision). This also ties back to the user-centric visualization that presents different levels of information to achieve both explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence. Even so, the adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in the nuclear industry faces additional barriers, namely regulatory and stakeholder readiness. To overcome these challenges, new solutions must gain regulatory approval and cater to stakeholder needs. The Nuclear Regulatory Committee has a 5-year strategic plan which prepares them for reviewing artificial intelligence technologies in licensee submissions. Early and frequent engagement with the regulator is encouraged. Additionally, artificial intelligence solutions should incorporate human-in-the-loop considerations and offer explainability. Stakeholders must prepare by hiring or training staff to adapt to advancing technology in everyday plant tasks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

BRE‐X Emissions Database for End‐of‐Life Scenarios of Selective Building Construction Materials to Enable Circular Economy in Construction

In the United States, construction and demolition debris predominately end up in landfills with minimal end‐of‐life Re‐X (recover, recycle, reuse, etc.) scenarios, resulting in large environmental impacts and lost opportunities for material recovery. Except for concrete and metals, which seem to have a few well‐defined end‐of‐life pathways, there seems to be a lack of well‐documented end‐of‐life scenarios for other construction materials, let alone their emissions data. Hence, there is a need for documented end‐of‐life Re‐X scenarios and end‐of‐life data of more building materials to motivate widespread use of Re‐X strategies in building design. This paper outlines the efforts of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Carbon Leadership Forum, Building Transparency, and Skidmore, Owings & Merrill to (a) create an open‐access BRE‐X (Building Re‐X) end‐of‐life emissions database consisting of greenhouse gas emissions data associated with various end‐of‐life scenarios for a select list of high‐impact building construction materials, and (b) integrate the BRE‐X end‐of‐life emissions database with CAD/BIM/LCA tools for evaluating various end‐of‐life scenarios. The paper also presents a few existing life cycle inventory databases that contain sparse amounts of end‐of‐life data for a few construction materials and their limitations in terms of scaling and data consolidation. Finally, a sample of how the collected data can be ingested into whole‐building LCA tools using open data formats and a public access link to the BRE‐X end‐of‐life emissions database is also included.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lessons Learned in Employing Data Analytics to Predict Oxidation Kinetics and Spallation Behavior of High-Temperature NiCr-Based Alloys

Machine learning (ML) can offer many advantages in predicting material properties over traditional materials development methods based solely on limited experimental investigations or physical-based simulations with the capability to reduce development cost, risk, and time. However, so far, limited efforts have been made to predict alloy oxidation kinetics and spallation behavior via ML due to the lack of consistently measured and sufficient experimental data and the inherent complexity in oxidation behavior of multicomponent high-temperature alloys. A previous study reported the ability of ML to predict oxidation kinetics of NiCr-based alloys as a function of alloy composition and operating conditions. Here, the performance of a ML model in predicting rate constants and spallation probability was evaluated in light of the roles of the data distribution of the experimental dataset (data analytics), the alloy composition, the exposure environment and the chosen oxidation approach to extracting kinetic values from the measured mass changes (but using either a simple parabolic law or a statistical cyclic oxidation model). Potential strategies to improve the predictions and enhance the extrapolative capability of the previously trained model will be discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Driven Fault Detection of Premixer Centerbody Degradation in a Swirl Combustor

This paper introduces a data-driven framework for combustor-focused, performance-based condition monitoring of gas turbines. Commercial condition monitoring systems typically generate huge amounts of data that make efficient onboard monitoring challenging. This paper focuses on quantifying combustor component degradation, using premixer centerbody degradation in a swirl stabilized combustor as a case study. The input for these analyses is acoustic pressure measurements acquired at various locations on the combustor. The diagnosis methodology is based on a classification framework and consists of 3 steps: 1) Data curation, 2) Feature Engineering, and 3) Diagnosis. Data curation ensures good quality of the data that is passed through the algorithm. Feature engineering deals with the extraction of the most informative features, from the most informative sensors, that can accurately capture the introduced fault. To perform diagnosis, the classification model is trained using experimentally acquired data and is then tested on a separate data set. The framework was able to achieve high classification accuracy (>99%) for training size as low as 30% of the total recorded observations. The low number of features required to achieve this accuracy suggests high potential for integration into existing onboard condition monitoring systems.

data driven methods, fault detection, swirl flames↗
DOE OSTI2023

An SU(5) × U(1)' SUSY GUT with a “vector-like chiral” fourth family to fit all low energy data, including the muon g – 2

An additional generation of quarks and leptons and their SUSY counterparts, which are vector-like under the Standard Model gauge group but are chiral with respect to the new U(1) 3–4 gauge symmetry, are added to the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). We show that this model is a GUT and unifies the three SM gauge couplings and also the additional U(1) 3–4 coupling at a GUT scale of ≈ 5 × 10 16 GeV and explains the experimentally observed deviation of the muon g – 2. We also fit the quark flavor changing processes consistent with the latest experimental data and look at the effect of the new particles on the W boson mass without obviously conflicting with the observed masses of particles, CKM matrix elements, neutrino mixing angles, their mass differences, and the lepton-flavor violating bounds. This model predicts sparticle masses less than 25 TeV, with a gluino mass ≈ 2.3 – 3 TeV consistent with constraints, and one of the neutralinos as the LSP with a mass of ≈ 480 – 580 GeV, which is a potential dark matter candidate. The model is string theory motivated and predicts the VL quarks, leptons, a massive Z' and two Dirac neutrinos at the TeV scale and the branching ratios of μ → eγ, τ → μγ and τ → 3μ with BR(μ → eγ) within reach of future experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Molecular Modes Elucidate the Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Relaxation of Viscous Fluids

The Bloembergen, Purcell, and Pound (BPP) theory of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxation in fluids dating back to 1948 continues to be the linchpin in interpreting NMR relaxation data in applications ranging from characterizing fluids in porous media to medical imaging (MRI). The BPP theory is founded on assuming molecules are hard spheres with 1 H– 1 H dipole pairs reorienting randomly; assumptions that are severe in light of modern understanding of liquids. Nevertheless, it is intriguing to this day that the BPP theory was consistent with the original experimental data for glycerol, a hydrogen-bonding molecular fluid for which the hard-sphere-rigid-dipole assumption is inapplicable. To better understand this incongruity, atomistic molecular simulations are used to compute 1 H NMR T 1 relaxation dispersion (i.e., frequency dependence) in two contrasting cases: glycerol, and a (non hydrogen-bonding) viscosity standard. At high viscosities, simulations predict distinct functional forms of T 1 for glycerol compared to the viscosity standard, in agreement with modern measurements, yet both in contrast to BPP theory. The cause of these departures from BPP theory is elucidated, without assuming any relaxation models and without any free parameters, by decomposing the simulated T 1 response into dynamic molecular modes for both intramolecular and intermolecular interactions. The decomposition into dynamic molecular modes provides an alternative framework to understand the physics of NMR relaxation for viscous fluids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A New Capability of E4D For 3D Parallel Joint Inversion of DC Resistivity And Traveltime Data on Unstructured Mesh

A major challenge in interpreting geophysical data is how to derive consistent three-dimensional (3D) earth models of different physical properties from spatially and temporally limited measurements. Joint inversion with cross-gradient constraints is an approach to find such models by imposing structural similarities between different physical parameters. We have developed a parallel distributed-memory joint inversion code for direct-current (DC) resistivity and traveltime data using the cross-gradient constraint on unstructured mesh. The code utilizes existing E4D framework for parallel forward simulation, distributed storage and computation of the Jacobian matrix of forward operator, and parallel execution of matrix-vector multiplication during inversion. Besides, the joint inversion is solved by nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm parallelized for DC resistivity and traveltime data. The joint inversion capability of E4D was tested using synthetic data from cross-borehole DC resistivity and traveltime data. The results indicate that the shape and size of the anomalies from the joint inversion are more reliable than those from separate inversions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The ENDF/B Nuclear Data Library and Its Impact on Reactor Simulations

The ENDF/B library, which is developed, maintained, and distributed by the Cross Section Evaluation Working Group, is the main source of nuclear data for analyses and computational simulations in nuclear applications, like different nuclear reactors concepts, radiation shielding, medical applications, astrophysics, etc. The library is constantly being improved and updated, with each release bringing an optimal representation of nuclear interactions as they are understood in their time. The most recent release, ENDF/B-VIII.1, represents a significant improvement in terms of the performance and consistency of the measured differential data relative to previous versions, as it combines the most recent experimental differential data and advanced theoretical nuclear models. As one of the many highlights, ENDF/B-VIII.1 restores a high-burnup depletion performance, comparable to ENDF/B-VII.1, that had been degraded in ENDF/B-VIII.0, while further improving the performance in criticality benchmarks, such as those in the Mosteller’s suite. Additionally noteworthy is the improved performance of ENDF/B-VIII.1 in radiation shielding and thick-target leakage spectrum integral experiments, which are also important for fusion and reactor applications. In this work we present in a very summarized way the main updates implemented in the ENDF/B-VIII.1 release and its main impacts, and also begin to delineate the path forward as to what to expect in the future for the next ENDF/B release, which, based on the timeline of the past few releases, is estimated to happen around 5 years from now. We emphasize that the ENDF/B-VIII.1 release was the product of an enormous collaborative effort among many authors and that for a complete detailed picture, the reader is strongly encouraged to refer to the article accompanying the release, which is currently in the publication process, but available as preprint [G. P. A. Nobre et al. arXiv Preprint arXiv: 2511.03564 (2025)].

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum critical point followed by Kondo-like behavior due to Cu substitution in the itinerant antiferromagnet La 2 ⁢(Cu 𝑥 ⁢Ni 1−𝑥 ) 7

La 2 ⁢Ni 7 is an itinerant magnetic system with a small ordered moment of ∼ 0.1⁢µ 𝐵 /Ni and a series of antiferromagnetic (AFM) transitions at 𝑇 1 = 61.0K, 𝑇 2 = 56.5K, and 𝑇 3 = 42.2K. 𝑀 ⁡(𝐻), and 𝜌 ⁡(𝐻) isotherms as well as constant field 𝑀⁡ (𝑇) and 𝜌 ⁡(𝑇) measurements on single-crystalline samples manifest a complex, anisotropic 𝐻−𝑇 phase diagram with multiple phase lines. Here, in this study, we present the growth and characterization of single crystals of the La 2 ⁢(Cu 𝑥 ⁢Ni 1−𝑥 ) 7 series for 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 0.181. We measured powder x-ray diffraction and composition, as well as anisotropic temperature- and field-dependent resistivity, temperature- and field-dependent magnetization, and temperature-dependent heat capacity on these single crystals. Using the measured data we infer a transition temperature-composition (𝑇−𝑥) phase diagram for this system to study the evolution of the AFM ordering upon Cu substitution. For 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 0.097, the system remains magnetically ordered at base temperature with 𝑥 ≤ 0.012, showing signs of multiple AFM ordering temperatures. For the higher substitution levels 0.125 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 0.181, there are no signatures of magnetic ordering, but anomalous features in resistance and heat capacity data are observed which are consistent with the Kondo effect in this system. The intermediate 𝑥 = 0.105 sample lies between the magnetic ordered and the Kondo regime and is in the vicinity of the AFM quantum critical point (QCP). Thus, La 2⁢ (Cu 𝑥 ⁢Ni 1−𝑥 ) 7 is an example of a small moment system that can be tuned through a QCP. Given these data combined with the fact that the La 2⁢ Ni 7 structure has kagomelike, Ni sublattices running perpendicular to the crystallographic 𝑐 axis, and a predicted 3⁢𝑑-electron flat band that contributes to the density of states near the Fermi energy, La 2 ⁢(Cu 𝑥 ⁢Ni 1−𝑥 ) 7 becomes a promising system to host and study exotic physics.

Das, Atreyee [Ames Laboratory, and Iowa State Univ↗
DOE OSTI2022

2022 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Electricity Generation Technologies

These data provide the 2022 update of the Electricity Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Starting in 2015 NREL has presented the ATB, consisting of detailed cost and performance data, both current and projected, for electricity generation and storage technologies. The ATB products now include data (Excel workbook, Tableau workbooks, and structured summary csv files), as well as documentation and user engagement via a website, presentation, and webinar. Starting in 2021, the data are cloud optimized and provided in the OEDI data lake. The data for 2015 - 2020 are can be found on the NREL Data Search Page. The website documentation can be found on the ATB Website.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2023

2023 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Electricity Generation Technologies

These data provide the 2023 update of the Electricity Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Starting in 2015 NREL has presented the ATB, consisting of detailed cost and performance data, both current and projected, for electricity generation and storage technologies. The ATB products now include data (Excel workbook, Tableau workbooks, and structured summary csv files), as well as documentation and user engagement via a website, presentation, and webinar. Starting in 2021, the data are cloud optimized and provided in the OEDI data lake. The data for 2015 - 2020 are can be found on the NREL Data Search Page. The website documentation can be found on the ATB Website.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Electricity Generation Technologies

These data provide the 2024 update of the Electricity Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Starting in 2015 NREL has presented the ATB, consisting of detailed cost and performance data, both current and projected, for electricity generation and storage technologies. The ATB products now include data (Excel workbook, Tableau workbooks, and structured summary csv files), as well as documentation and user engagement via a website, presentation, and webinar. Starting in 2021, the data are cloud optimized and provided in the OEDI data lake. The data for 2015 - 2020 are can be found on the NREL Data Search Page. The website documentation can be found on the ATB Website.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Transparency from Quasi-elastic ¹²C(e, e'p) scattering reaction up to Q2 = 14.2 (GeV/c)2 in Hall C at Jefferson Lab

Color Transparency (CT) is a unique prediction of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) where the final (and/or initial) state interactions of hadrons with the nuclear medium are suppressed for exclusive processes at high momentum transfers. While this phenomenon has been observed for mesons, there has never been a conclusive observation for baryons. A clear signal of CT for baryons would be the first evidence of baryons fluctuating to a small size in the nucleus, and the onset would show the transition from nucleon-meson picture to quark-gluon degrees of freedom. The experiment E1206107, searching for the onset of CT in protons was completed in Hall C at Jefferson Laboratory (JLab) using the upgraded 12 GeV e- beam. It used the High Momentum Spectrometer (HMS) and the new Super High Momentum spectrometer (SHMS) in coincidence to measure the e- + ¹²C ? e-' + p + X reaction in quasi-elastic kinematics. Data were collected on a ¹²C target over the range of Q2 = 8 - 14.3 (GeV/c)2, covering the region where a previous p + A ? p' + p + X experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) had observed an enhancement. Proton Transparency (PT) was extracted from these data. A rise in the PT as a function of Q2 (defined as the square of the negative of the 4-momentum transfer by the scattered electron) is predicted to be a signature of the onset of CT. Our data showed no significant increase and consistent with the traditional nuclear physics calculation. This dissertation discusses the theory and implementation of the CT experiment, summarizes the data analysis and presents results on hydrogen normalization and nuclear transparency.

Bhetuwal, Deepak↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating Predictions for Improving Defect Classification Accuracy in NDT-based Assessment of Concrete - 20229

There is an increasing need to create predictive models for defect classification in concrete using the output of non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques. Recent advancement of machine-learning algorithms has offered several techniques for developing classification models for different types of data sets. However, the performance of these algorithms is very uncertain, mainly when applied to small and noisy datasets. For example, when human access is limited (e.g., nuclear facility), robot-based NDT is preferred. But compared to manual tests with humans present on site, the data sets are small, and more noise can exist. Therefore, it is imperative to develop new approaches to ensure a consistently high classification accuracy for inadequate data sets. This study explores the classification performance on NDT dataset using classifiers from different machine-learning algorithms, namely k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The authors further integrated the predictions from these classifiers using proposed methods. The integration strategy combines the output of the classifiers based on two different measures, accuracy, and performance (ACC and PERF), using equations such as sum, average, and square-root-of-sums-of-squares (SRSS). Our results reveal varying classification accuracies across individual classifiers with different misclassifications across the test data set. The integration strategy provided significant improvement in the classification accuracy compared to the individual classifiers. Furthermore, the results indicate minimal variation across the integration methods as compared to the variation across the individual classifiers. To conclude, prediction integration offers a unique approach for combining the output of multiple classifiers to create redundancies with the potential of achieving high classification performance and improved reliability in predictive models for defect detection in concrete. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-time estimation of the electron temperature profile in DIII-D by leveraging neural-network surrogate models

Control of both the magnitude and the shape of tokamak profiles will be necessary to achieve stable, high-performance plasmas. In order to reject disturbances in real time, feedback-control algorithms rely on accurate real-time knowledge of the plasma state. When diagnostics alone are insufficient, either because they are limited in number or their measurements are too noisy, observers can be used to combine diagnostic data with a response model to provide a better estimation of different plasma properties. An observer has been developed to estimate the electron temperature profile in real time using both diagnostic data from the Thomson scattering system and a model based on the electron heat transport equation describing the evolution of the electron temperature profile. Here, neural network surrogate models are leveraged to help improve the overall model prediction while staying within computation time constraints for real-time use. The observer algorithm is shown in offline tests to produce smooth profiles that are consistent with both the diagnostic data and the electron heat transport equation. When implemented into the real-time plasma control system, this observer will provide valuable information on the electron temperature profile to many potential feedback-control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗