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At least 991 records · Page 55

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Voltage-Based Strategies for Preventing Battery Degradation under Diverse Fast-Charging Conditions

Maintaining safe operating conditions is a key challenge for high-performance lithium-ion battery applications. The lithium-plating reaction remains a risk during charging, but limited studies consider the highly variable charging conditions possible in commercial cells. Here we combine pseudo-2D electrochemical modeling with data visualization methods to reveal important relationships between the measurable cell voltage and difficult-to-predict Li-plating onset criteria. An extensively validated model is used to compute Li plating for thousands of multistep charging conditions spanning diverse rates, temperatures, states-of-charge, and cell aging. Here we observe an empirical cell operating voltage limit below which plating does not occur across all conditions, and this limit varies with the battery state-of-charge and aging. A model sensitivity analysis also indicates that, when comparing two charging voltage profiles, the capacity difference at 4.0 V correlates well with the difference in the plating onset capacity. These results encourage simple strategies for Li-plating prevention that are complementary to existing battery controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A mechanism-based quantitative multi-scale framework for investigating irradiation hardening of tungsten at low temperature

We present the development and validation of a mechanism-based multi-scale modeling framework to quantitatively link the irradiation defect evolution kinetics at the microscopic scale to the macroscopic yield strength and flow stress evolution of tungsten irradiated at low temperature (0.08 < T/T m < 0.18, where T m is the melting point and is equal to 3673 K). The mechanism-based strength model, proposed as the superposition of thermal softening and modified dispersed barrier hardening, is developed to understand the underlying strengthening mechanisms. The thermal softening exponent as defined in the Johnson-Cook model is obtained by fitting unirradiated yield strength at different temperatures. A set of irradiation-induced defect kinetics equations with the thermodynamics parameters derived from the atomic calculations reported in the literature is used to determine the densities and sizes of defect clusters at the meso-scale, and the predicted irradiation damage characteristics are in reasonable quantitative agreement with experimental data from literature. The effects of irradiation condition (temperature and irradiation dose) and test temperature on yield strength are quantitatively predicted and compared with experimental measurements from the literature. Here, the predicted irradiation hardening and strain hardening are compared with experimental data as model validation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reference Shapefiles and Pre-trained Random Forest Classification Models for Detecting Aufeis on the North Slope of Alaska in Landsat Imagery

This dataset provides shapefiles and trained machine learning models used for aufeis detection at four sites on the North Slope of Alaska. It includes reference data for evaluating Landsat-based detection methods, supporting research on remote sensing approaches for identifying aufeis. The ReferenceData folder contains ArcGIS shapefiles of semi-automated land cover classifications for 217 Landsat Collection 2 images, categorizing pixels into six classes: aufeis, snow, ground, none, water, and cloud. The SiteBuffers.zip file includes 10-kilometer buffer shapefiles defining regions of interest around four aufeis fields (Canning21, FH1, Firth, and Kuparuk), used to test three detection techniques. Additionally, the TrainedRFModels folder contains six pre-trained Scikit-Learn Random Forest classifiers (100 trees, max depth = 30) designed to predict aufeis presence in Landsat Collection 2 Surface Reflectance images using Red, Blue, SWIR2, NDVI, and NDWI bands. This dataset supports the development and validation of remote sensing methods for mapping aufeis in Arctic environments.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inversion-based correction of Double-Torsion (DT) subcritical crack growth tests for crack profile geometry

Because of its simplicity and the ability to produce a stable, slow-propagating crack, the Double-Torsion (DT) method has been used widely for investigating the critical and subcritical propagation of a slow-propagating tensile (mode-I) crack. However, to determine the complex relationship between the crack velocity $\mathcal{v_c}$ vs. the strain energy release rate $\mathscr{G}$ (or the stress intensity factor K) from laboratory measurements, several corrections must be made to account for the impact of sample and crack geometry. Particularly, DT test typically produces a crack with a curved edge profile instead of a straight line, causing the local $\mathcal{v_c}$ and $\mathscr{G}$ vary along the crack front. The experimentally measured $\mathcal{v_c}$ and $\mathscr{G}$ data merely reflect collective, averaged behavior of the crack. This makes inversion for the intrinsic, “true” crack growth kinetics necessary, based upon the knowledge of the crack geometry. Simple and effective correction methods have been proposed and validated for the slow, chemical-reaction-controlled part (Region I) of the $\mathcal{v_c}$-$\mathscr{G}$ curve. However, reliable methods for the highly nonlinear, transport-dominated part (Region II) and its sudden transition to the dynamic propagation part (Region III) are still lacking. Here we propose a method for determining the intrinsic $\mathcal{v_c}$-$\mathscr{G}$ relationship across all three Regions based upon DT test data, using a simple model function and its numerical inversion. The performance of this approach is examined and demonstrated using both synthetic and laboratory data for subcritical crack growth in soda lime glass.

42 ENGINEERING↗

From Points to Planes: A Workflow for Converting Three‐Dimensional Point Cloud Data Into Discrete Fracture Network Flow and Transport Models

We present the Point cLoud Algorithm for NEtwork Extraction of Discrete Fracture Networks (PLANE-DFN), a point cloud–based algorithm for automatic fracture network extraction designed to support discrete fracture network (DFN) modeling workflows. PLANE-DFN segments three-dimensional fracture planes from raw point cloud data using RANdom SAmple Consensus coupled with statistical outlier removal and density-based clustering to isolate individual fracture features. Each candidate plane is constrained against site-specific structural constraints based on strike and dip. After segmentation, each fracture is converted into a 2-D convex polygon suitable for meshing and simulation. The PLANE-DFN algorithm is validated by comparing geometric and flow and transport data against data from dfnWorks simulations with ensembles of plane-fit networks. We find that the flow and transport in plane-fit networks are comparable to dfnWorks-generated networks when realistic network geometry is maintained. The PLANE-DFN algorithm provides an automated and streamlined workflow to transform point clouds of data into DFN network geometry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Learning Optimal Power Flow Solutions using Linearized Models in Power Distribution Systems

Solving nonlinear optimal power flow (OPF) problem is computationally expensive, and poses scalability challenges for power distribution networks. An alternative to solving the original nonlinear OPF is the linear approximated OPF models. Although, these linear approximated OPF models are fast, the resulting solutions may result in significant optimality gap. Lately, the application of machine learning (ML) methods in successfully solving the nonlinear OPF has been reported. These methods learn and estimate the nonlinear control policies using a purely data-driven approach. In this paper, we propose an approach to complements the ML based approach to solving OPF using solutions from known linearized OPF model. Specifically, we use supervised learning to map the solutions of linear OPF to nonlinear control variables. Unlike, the traditional ML based methods for OPF that approximate the full distribution feeder model using function approximation, our approach uses a two-node approximation of radial networks. The proposed approach is validated using IEEE 123 bus test system for OPF solutions obtained using the nonlinear OPF models.

optimal power flow, power distribution systems, su↗

Adapting Existing Energy Planning, Simulation, and Operational Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate indicators and metrics for resilience, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. Given the complexity of resilience analyses and mitigation strategies, there is limited value in attempting to identify a single resilience metric, as no one metric can quantify resilience or its associated value for all stakeholders. Instead, a necessary focus of the research community should lie in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing that implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics are challenges that need to be addressed, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) dedicated staff and time to researching how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools, as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN)

The national laboratories, directed by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office, will organize, design, and execute a landmark international wake observation and validation campaign known as the American WAKE experimeNt or AWAKEN. This document describes the vision and purpose for AWAKEN and describes some of the organizational activities that have taken place to date. The driving need for this experimental campaign is that wake interactions are among the least understood physical phenomena in wind plants today, leading to unexpected power and financial losses. New observation data gathered will be used to further validate wind plant models and lead to both improved layout and more optimal operation of wind farms with greater power production and improved reliability, ultimately leading to lower wind energy costs. This campaign will occur in the U.S. Midwest, where the largest concentration of wind farms in the U.S. is located and where significant future growth is most likely. The field campaign will provide a data set that is unique among wake studies, based on location, scope, and observational fidelity: most wake studies have largely focused on offshore wind farms, which are not currently critical to the U.S. wind energy supply, and with a limited number of observations. While AWAKEN is focused on land-based wind farms in flat terrain, many of the observations will help researchers understand fundamental wake behavior applicable in both offshore and complex terrain environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Validation of the SCEPTRE Boltzmann-CSD Solver

A new Boltzmann-CSD solver has been developed within the SCEPTRE radiation-transport code, based on the 1st-order form of the transport equation, using discontinuous finite elements in space and energy and discrete ordinates in angle. The Boltzmann-CSD solver has been validated against experimental data for electron energy deposition distributions and for electron emission spectra. Comparison of the calculated results with experimental data shows excellent agreement for many of the test configurations and reasonable agreement for other test configurations. The tests have also been modeled with the ITS Monte Carlo code, which also shows excellent to reasonable agreement with the SCEPTRE results and experimental data. The SCEPTRE Boltzmann-CSD solver relies on electron cross sections generated by the legacy CEPXS code, which currently is limited to electron-only Boltzmann-CSD cross sections. Performing full electron-photon radiation transport with the Boltzmann-CSD solver will require further development in the cross section generating code. For the energy- deposition calculations, neglecting photon transport results in at most about 5% overprediction of the energy deposition for high-energy electrons on high-Z targets, and relatively insignificant difference for the other test configurations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Artificial Intelligence for Autonomous Molecular Design: A Perspective

Domain-aware artificial intelligence has been increasingly adopted in recent years to expedite molecular design in various applications, including drug design and discovery. Recent advances in areas such as physics-informed machine learning and reasoning, software engineering, high-end hardware development, and computing infrastructures are providing opportunities to build scalable and explainable AI molecular discovery systems. This could improve a design hypothesis through feedback analysis, data integration that can provide a basis for the introduction of end-to-end automation for compound discovery and optimization, and enable more intelligent searches of chemical space. Several state-of-the-art ML architectures are predominantly and independently used for predicting the properties of small molecules, their high throughput synthesis, and screening, iteratively identifying and optimizing lead therapeutic candidates. However, such deep learning and ML approaches also raise considerable conceptual, technical, scalability, and end-to-end error quantification challenges, as well as skepticism about the current AI hype to build automated tools. To this end, synergistically and intelligently using these individual components along with robust quantum physics-based molecular representation and data generation tools in a closed-loop holds enormous promise for accelerated therapeutic design to critically analyze the opportunities and challenges for their more widespread application. This article aims to identify the most recent technology and breakthrough achieved by each of the components and discusses how such autonomous AI and ML workflows can be integrated to radically accelerate the protein target or disease model-based probe design that can be iteratively validated experimentally. Taken together, this could significantly reduce the timeline for end-to-end therapeutic discovery and optimization upon the arrival of any novel zoonotic transmission event. Our article serves as a guide for medicinal, computational chemistry and biology, analytical chemistry, and the ML community to practice autonomous molecular design in precision medicine and drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

OC6 project Phase IV: validation of numerical models for novel floating offshore wind support structures

Abstract. This paper provides a summary of the work done within Phase IV of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project, under International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme Task 30. This phase focused on validating the loading on and motion of a novel floating offshore wind system. Numerical models of a 3.6 MW horizontal-axis wind turbine atop the TetraSpar floating support structure were compared using measurement data from a 1:43-Froude-scale test performed in the University of Maine's Alfond Wind–Wave (W2) Ocean Engineering Laboratory. Participants in the project ran a series of simulations, including system equilibrium, surge offsets, free-decay tests, wind-only conditions, wave-only conditions, and a combination of wind and wave conditions. Validation of the models was performed by comparing the aerodynamic loading, floating support structure motion, tower base loading, mooring line tensions, and keel line tensions. The results show a relatively good estimation of the aerodynamic loading and a reasonable estimation of the platform motion and tower base fore–aft bending moment. However, there is a significant dispersion in the dynamic loading for the upwind mooring line. Very good agreement was observed between most of the numerical models and the experiment for the keel line tensions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The soil health assessment protocol and evaluation applied to soil organic carbon

The concept of soil health has evolved over the past several decades, recognizing that dynamic soil property response to management and land use is highly dependent on site-specific factors that must be considered when interpreting soil health measurements. Initially, the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF) and Comprehensive Assessment of Soil Health (CASH) were developed and used globally for scoring soil health indicators. However, both SMAF and CASH frameworks were developed using a relatively small dataset and their interpretation curves were not validated at the nationwide scale. Expanding upon these concepts, we propose the Soil Health Assessment Protocol and Evaluation (SHAPE) tool. The SHAPE was developed using 14,680 soil organic C (SOC) observations from across the United States, and accounts for edaphic and climate factors at the continental scale. Data were compiled from the literature, the Cornell Soil Health Laboratory, and the Kellogg Soil Survey Laboratory. In this approach, scoring curves are Bayesian model-based estimates of the conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) for defined soil peer groups reflecting five soil texture and five soil suborder classes adjusted for mean annual temperature and precipitation. Specifically, SHAPE produces scores between 0 and 1 (0–100%) for measured SOC values that reflect the quantile or position within the conditional CDF along with measures of uncertainty. Herein, we focus on development of the SHAPE scoring curve for SOC with our case studies. SHAPE is a flexible, quantitative tool that provides a regionally relevant interpretation of this key soil health indicator.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design and evaluation of a dilute flow particle-to-air heat exchanger for energy storage applications

The use of inert and redox-active particles for high-temperature energy storage requires the development of components that can efficiently transfer energy to high-pressure working fluids like supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ). Dilute flow reactors can enable high working fluid outlet temperatures and minimal parasitic losses compared to moving packed bed and fluidized bed reactors. This research uses both computational and experimental methods to explore the design trade-offs and practical challenges of a novel component for transferring energy from dilute flows of hot, reduced metal oxide (MO x ) particles to sCO 2 in tubes. A discretized thermal resistance network model, which accounts for particle hydrodynamics, multi-mode heat transfer, and reaction equilibrium, guides the design of a prototype device. This device is experimentally tested with a surrogate heat transfer fluids and inert particle temperatures up to 400°C and a heat duty exceeding 1 kW. The data are used to validate the thermal hydraulic sub-models, allowing for the simulation of reacting particle scenarios. Under nominal design conditions, the flow rate of reactive particles is predicted to be 30% lower than that of inert particles for the same energy recovered, with over 70% of the stored particle energy transferred to the sCO 2 . Furthermore, these findings can inform the design of more efficient energy recovery reactors for particle-based systems and can be integrated into system-level concentrated solar power models with thermal storage to optimize operating conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Benchmark of interfacial area concentration approaches for the two-fluid model in gas-dispersed condensing flow

Accurate predictions of interfacial area concentration (IAC) are required for closure of the condensation phase change term. The interfacial area transport equation (IATE) can dynamically predict interfacial area concentration and is increasingly being used in the benchmarking of phase change flows over static based correlations which require a flow regime map. For higher flow regimes, the two-group two-fluid IATE model can separately model the transport of spherical bubbles and cap/slug bubbles. Recently, a modified formulation of the one-group and two-group two-fluid model with interfacial area transport equation was proposed for gas-dispersed condensing flows. Three datasets have been used for validation consisting of condensing two-phase flow data in the unheated section of a vertical annulus with conditions spanning a range of pressures, inlet subcoolings and mass fluxes for benchmarking the various IAC approaches. For bubbly flows, the coupled void transport - IATE simulation results in good agreement in the predictions of the void fraction and the interfacial area concentration under nearly all sixty conditions. Considering the proposed two-group two-fluid IATE model formulation, the group-2 Nusselt number correlation is investigated to account for the appropriate heat transfer length scale for group-2 bubbles. Validation of the proposed two-group two-fluid model against the new dataset shows good agreement with experimental data with significant improvement over the one-group IATE model for conditions with substantial group-2 void fraction throughout the simulation domain.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A critical review on additive manufacturing of refractory alloys from a data analytics perspective- beyond nickel-based superalloys

Refractory alloys (RAs) are promising materials due to their exceptional physicochemical properties, but most research remains at the laboratory scale. For broader adoption, advancements in manufacturing are essential. Because their high stability makes conventional methods like machining and casting difficult, additive manufacturing (AM) is emerging as an effective approach for fabricating refractory alloy components. However, AM's repeated non-equilibrium thermal cycles introduce undesired features (e.g. defects, anisotropic microstructures, and residual stresses), which are magnified due to RAs’ unique properties. This paper comprehensively reviews the state-of-the-art methods of AM for refractory alloys. It explores data analytics techniques to establish design rules based on multi-fidelity experimental and computational methods. Furthermore, it investigates integrated, collaborative efforts to harmonise standalone databases, information, knowledge, and predictive models at multi-physics, multi-stage, and multi-scale. Unlike the existing literature that focuses primarily on material systems or process fundamentals, this work provides an integrated perspective on AM of refractory alloys from a data analytics standpoint, highlighting the roles of integrated computational materials engineering (ICME), verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VV&UQ), and digital twin-driven qualification in overcoming data scarcity and accelerating rapid qualification.

Additive manufacturing↗

Computationally efficient evaluation of optimum homogeneous charge compression ignition operating range with accelerated multizone engine cycle simulation

The very intensive calculations necessary to define a performance map requiring evaluation of over a hundred individual operating points can be efficiently conducted with accelerated multizone for engine cycle simulation, leading to a definition of regions of acceptable and optimum homogeneous charge compression ignition operation. Accelerated multizone for engine cycle simulation has the virtue of enabling accurate evaluation of many operating conditions based on thermal stratification data from a single fluid mechanics run at motored conditions. This is possible because thermal stratification is more sensitive to engine geometry than to operating conditions. In this article, accuracy of accelerated multizone for engine cycle simulation is demonstrated by comparison with experimental data for iso-octane homogeneous charge compression ignition operation over a broad range of lean equivalence ratios (0.14–0.28). The validated accelerated multizone for engine cycle simulation model is then applied to generating a performance map for an engine controlled by appropriately adjusting equivalence ratio and internal exhaust gas recirculation. Regions of acceptable and optimum combustion are identified. It is finally demonstrated that while indicated mean effective pressure remains low for optimum homogeneous charge compression ignition operation (1–4 bar), this is sufficient for a large fraction of typical driving in light-duty vehicles. Much driving including idle can therefore be done in homogeneous charge compression ignition mode at high efficiency and low (essentially zero) NOx and particulate matter emissions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗