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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Two trillion gallons: Fuel savings from fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles, 1975–2018

Since 1975, the fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. has almost doubled. Fuel economy improvements on laboratory tests gradually became real improvements on the road as newer, more efficient vehicles replaced older less efficient ones. Fleet-wide fuel economy gains produced large fuel savings. In this paper, we show that fuel economy gains measured on laboratory test cycles, adjusted for on-road conditions and weighted by the distribution of vehicles by age and their relative use, closely match estimates by the Federal Highway Administration based primarily on traffic counts and motor fuel tax records. Furthermore, adjusting for the rebound effect of fuel economy on vehicle miles traveled, we estimate the fuel savings, CO 2 emissions reductions and dollars saved on fuel due to fuel economy improvements over the past 43 years. Through the end of 2018, estimated cumulative fuel savings amount to approximately 2 trillion gallons of gasoline. We estimate that roughly one-fifth of the savings can be attributed to gasoline price increases over the period and four-fifths to fuel economy and greenhouse gas (ghg) standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

The prospective impacts of 2019 state energy policies on the U.S. electricity system

Over the past several years state energy policies have been evolving rapidly, and are more frequently including higher targets, including 100% clean energy targets. This study assesses the aggregate impacts of state clean energy standards and emissions policies on national electricity generation, power sector carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, and electricity prices and system costs. To do so, we apply the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a detailed electric sector capacity expansion model, to evaluate scenarios with and without state policies and using a range of renewable energy technology cost projections. Across the scenarios analyzed, we find that the state policies drive 1.9%–10.7% of total nationwide clean energy and reduce cumulative power sector CO 2 emissions by 2.6%–5.4% over the 2020–2050 study period. This incremental generation is predominantly, but not exclusively, from renewable energy technologies. In most cases, the state policies result in increases to electricity prices and electricity system costs, and policy costs are sensitive to the future cost of clean energy technologies. Across all scenarios, the levelized cost of incremental policy-driven clean energy generation is estimated to be $17–38/MWh and the average cost of CO 2 abatement from the state-level policies is estimated to be $29–74/metric ton.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing

This work investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

An anode-free Li metal cell with replenishable Li designed for long cycle life

Pit corrosion of Li during stripping is an important factor responsible for poor Li cycling efficiency, a metric that determines its cycling life. When excess Li is present, it has been observed that Li tends to strip in a non-uniform fashion, forming pits that extend well past the theoretical Li depth that inevitably lead to the formation of electronically isolated “dead” Li particles. In this work, a novel cell with replenishable Li is shown to inherently mitigate the formation of this “dead” Li, as a direct result of a design in which the intrinsically more homogenous stripping behavior of anode-free cells are combined with a replenishable limited Li reservoir. These novel cells (Li|Cu||LiFePO 4 ) exhibit 25% and 34% higher cumulative capacities than the conventional cells (Cu|Li||LiFePO 4 ) in carbonate and ether electrolytes, respectively, enabling a significant increase in cycle life without impacting energy density. This improvement strategy represents a new direction in Li metal battery improvement, in which improved cycling can be achieved regardless of electrolyte chemistry.

Long cycle life↗
DOE OSTI2020

Health co-benefits and mitigation costs as per the Paris Agreement under different technological pathways for energy supply

This study assesses the reductions in air pollution emissions and subsequent beneficial health effects from different global mitigation pathways consistent with the 2 °C stabilization objective of the Paris Agreement. We use an integrated modelling framework, demonstrating the need for models with an appropriate level of technology detail for an accurate co-benefit assessment. The framework combines an integrated assessment model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to obtain estimates of premature mortality and then assesses their economic cost. The results show that significant co-benefits can be found for a range of technological options, such as introducing a limitation on bioenergy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power. Cumulative premature mortality may be reduced by 17–23% by 2020–2050 compared to the baseline, depending on the scenarios. However, the ratio of health co-benefits to mitigation costs varies substantially, ranging from 1.45 when a bioenergy limitation is set to 2.19 when all technologies are available. As for regional disaggregation, some regions, such as India and China, obtain far greater co-benefits than others.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Private, public, and bottled drinking water: Shared contaminant-mixture exposures and effects challenge

Background: Humans are primary drivers of environmental–contaminant exposures worldwide, including in drinking-water (DW). In the United States, point-of-use DW (POU–DW) is supplied via private tapwater (TW), public-supply TW, and bottled water (BW). Differences in management, monitoring, and messaging and lack of directly–intercomparable exposure data influence the actual and perceived quality and safety of different DW supplies and directly impact consumer decision–making. Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to provide a meta-analysis (quantitative synthesis) of POU–DW contaminant–mixture exposures and corresponding potential human–health effects of private-TW, public-TW, and BW by aggregating exposure results and harmonizing apical–health–benchmark–weighted and bioactivity–weighted effects predictions across previous studies by this research group. Discussion: Simultaneous exposures to multiple inorganic and organic contaminants of known or suspected human-health concern are common across all three DW supplies, with substantial variability observed in each and no systematic difference in predicted cumulative risk between supplies. Differences in contaminant or contaminant–class exposures, with important implications for DW–quality improvements, were observed and attributed to corresponding differences in regulation and compliance monitoring. Conclusion: The results indicate that human-health risks from contaminant exposures are common to and comparable in all three DW–supplies, including BW. Importantly, this study’s target analytical coverage, which exceeds that currently feasible for water purveyors or homeowners, nevertheless is a substantial underestimation of the breadth of contaminant mixtures in the environment and potentially present in DW. Thus, the results emphasize the need for improved understanding of the adverse human-health implications of long-term exposures to low–level inorganic–/organic–contaminant mixtures across all three distribution pipelines and do not support commercial messaging of BW as a systematically safer alternative to public-TW. Regardless of the supply, increased public engagement in source-water protection and drinking–water treatment is necessary to reduce risks associated with long-term DW–contaminant exposures, especially in vulnerable populations, and to reduce environmental waste and plastics contamination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solar cities: A case study analysis of city-level enablers of expanded solar energy access

Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption can benefit households by reducing electricity bills and enhancing energy resiliency. Low and moderate-income (LMI) households have been less likely to adopt PV and experience these benefits in the United States than higher-income households. Adopter income trends are often explored through quantitative analysis with limited explanatory power. Our quantitative analysis only explains around one-third of city-level variation in LMI adoption trends through socioeconomic factors such as median home values and income inequality and PV market factors such as cumulative adoption and incentives. We implement semi-structured interviews in three case studies of cities with relatively high rates of LMI PV adoption to better understand the factors that explain PV adopter income trends. The case studies partly reiterate findings from quantitative analysis, such as the role of PV incentives. The case studies reveal a broader set of LMI adoption drivers that are missed in quantitative analyses. The case studies show how city contexts can affect LMI adoption, such as the role of supportive city governments. The case studies also reveal the importance of partnerships, such as partnerships between city governments and state LMI PV program implementers. Finally, interviewees emphasized the importance of building trust among prospective LMI PV adopters. Interviewees suggested that partnerships, outreach, and consumer protection measures were crucial to building trust in PV installers among LMI households.

Adoption↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Theoretical constraints on the effects of added cations on clumped, oxygen, and carbon isotope signatures of dissolved inorganic carbon species and minerals

Carbonate clumped isotope thermometry has emerged as a useful tool for the reconstruction of precipitation temperatures for minerals from surface and subsurface environments. Few studies have examined the impact of variable solution chemistry and mineral chemistry on clumping. Therefore, we used theoretical calculations to predict the impact of the presence of cations in a solution on the equilibrium clumped, oxygen ( 18 O/ 16 O and 17 O/ 16 O, θ and κ), and carbon isotopic ( 13 C/ 12 C) compositions of dissolved inorganic carbon species (DIC), and the impact of cation type and stoichiometry on carbonate mineral composition within the calcite-dolomite-magnesite solid solution. We examined the impact of the presence of Mg 2+ , K + , Na + , and Ca 2+ on equilibrium Δ 63 values of carbonate ion groups in DIC species and the composite DIC pool using the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d, 2p) model. We developed new cluster models for dolomite, magnesite, and high-magnesium calcite (Ca 0.83 Mg 0.17 )CO 3 and (Ca 0.67 Mg 0.33 )CO 3 ) and examined the effect of extraneous cations substituted into the crystal lattices of the carbonate minerals. We find the presence of added cations in the DIC pool increases equilibrium Δ 63 values slightly, depending upon their solution concentrations. For the cations examined, the identity of the added cation does not seem to be significant. Cumulative effects may account for small-scale differences (<0.02‰) but are unlikely to be substantial unless cation/anion association and ion pairing are important in the solution that carbonates are growing from. We also find that at a given temperature, stoichiometric dolomite and magnesite Δ 63 values are similar to calcite and less than aragonite. Surprisingly, substitution of an extraneous cation into a carbonate mineral (e.g., as observed in high-magnesium calcite) generally lowered Δ 63 by a slight amount, which suggests that high and low-magnesian calcites may have resolvable differences in equilibrium clumped isotope signatures, potentially providing an explanation for observations of different Δ 47 values in slow-growing minerals. These results imply the cationic composition of the solution may be a minor factor that should be considered for crystals that rapidly grow from solution, and that cationic substitution into carbonate mineral lattices will influence equilibrium compositions of carbonate minerals. Solution chemistry effects on mineral composition are likely to be observed at high growth rates. In contrast, equilibrium isotope compositions arising from cationic substitution in minerals, such as differences between high-Mg calcite and low-Mg calcite, or high-Mg calcite and dolomite, would likely be observed at slow growth rates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal relationships among lunar crustal rocks

Temporal relationships among the three most common suites of lunar crustal rocks have been investigated by obtaining new high precision ages on Felsic/Alkali-suite Quartz monzodiorite Clast B from breccia 15405 and Magnesian-suite norite 78235/6/8/55/56 and comparing them to previously dated ferroan anorthosite sample 60025. The weighted average age of 4337.19 ± 0.49 Ma of 15405 Clast B is defined by zircon U-Pb and Pb-Pb ages as well as mineral isochron Sm-Nd and Nd-Nd ages. It is identical to the weighted average age for Apollo 17 norite 78235/6/8/55/56 of 4334.1 ± 3.5 Ma which is defined by Pb-Pb ages measured on baddeleyites in this investigation and less precise Pb-Pb and Sm-Nd ages reported in the literature. Both ages are ∼ 25 Ma younger than the weighted average of Sm-Nd and Pb-Pb ages reported in the literature on ferroan anorthosite 60025 of 4359.3 ± 2.3 Ma. The fact that ages of all three samples are defined by multiple U-Pb, Pb-Pb, Sm-Nd, and 142 Nd- 143 Nd chronometers provide confidence that they record the igneous crystallization history of the samples and do not represent disturbances or mixing lines with no temporal significance. Here, the extent to which these three ages represent broader scale magmatism is difficult to evaluate. Nevertheless, the age defined for 15405 Clast B, 78235/6/8/55/56, and 60025 are contemporaneous with the peak of ages observed in detrital zircons from the Apollo 12, 14, 15, and 17 landing sites (4340 ± 20 Ma), a Mg-suite Sm-Nd whole rock isochron defined by samples from Apollo 14, 15, 16, and 17 landing sites (4348 ± 25 Ma), and a Ferroan Anorthosite-suite Sm-Nd whole rock isochron defined by samples from the Apollo 15 and 16 landing sites (4354 ± 29 Ma). This implies that Ferroan Anorthosite-suite magmatism is temporally distinct and earlier than magmatism associated with the Mg-suite and the Felsic/Alkali-suite, as predicted by the lunar magma ocean model of lunar differentiation. The short 35 ± 10 Ma interval between primary ferroan anorthosite magmatism and secondary magmatism suggests that the lunar crust formed over a limited period of time. Although heat from decay of long-lived isotopes, large impacts, tidal heating associated with interactions between the Earth and Moon, and density driven overturn of the magma ocean have all been invoked to explain production of ancient secondary crustal magmatism, only tidal heating and cumulate overturn are consistent with the apparent short duration of secondary crustal magmatism and the great depth of crystallization implied for some Mg-suite samples. The initial ε 143 Nd values derived from the 15405 Clast B and 78238 Mg-suite norite isochrons, as well as a Mg-suite whole rock isochron are −0.23 ± 0.11, −0.27 ± 0.74, and −0.25 ± 0.09, respectively. They are identical within uncertainty indicating that Mg-suite and Felsic/Alkali-suite magmas were derived from materials that had the same time averaged Sm/Nd ratios since the formation of the solar system. This, combined with the contemporaneous nature of 15405 Clast B and 78235/6/8/55/56 Mg-suite norite, is consistent with evolution of both samples, and likely both magma suites, from a common source through closed system fractional crystallization or partial melting processes.

Chronology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing first- and second-generation bioethanol by-products from sugarcane: Impact on soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics

The first- and second-generation bioethanol by-products (bagasse and fermentation by-product, respectively) have different biochemical characteristics relating to carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) due to their production processes. To examine the impacts of fermentation by-product and bagasse on soil C and N dynamics, a 120 day laboratory incubation experiment was conducted by applying these amendments in soil at an equal carbon application rate (2.2 g C kg -1 soil). There was a significant increase in overall cumulative CO 2 -C production from amended soil compared to the control soil, though the loss was greatest in bagasse amended soil. However, δ13C-CO 2 measurements suggested that fermentation by-product addition suppressed native soil C mineralization and prompted strong negative C priming (-57%). In contrast, bagasse amendment maintained similar native soil C mineralization to control soil. Decreased microbial biomass turnover time appears to be the major driving force for increased CO 2 -C production and soil C loss following bioethanol by-product amendments. Increased mineral N production indicated net N mineralization after fermentation by-product addition, while addition of bagasse resulted in lower N availability and N immobilization. Overall, results suggested that fermentation by-product application is advantageous in maintaining native soil C stock and N mineralization compared to bagasse. Thus, in a sustainable second-generation bioethanol production system, bagasse may be used for second-generation bioethanol production and the cogenerated by-product could be used as an amendment to improve soil C stock and N availability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dissolved pyrogenic carbon leaching in soil: Effects of soil depth and pyrolysis temperature

We report Pyrogenic organic carbon (PyC) is found in soils as a heterogeneous mixture of thermally altered plant residues that range in their susceptibility to losses via mineralization, leaching, and erosion. Leaching of PyC as DOC (DPyC) within the soil profile is likely influenced by the chemical composition of solid PyC and the dominant soil processes and properties at a particular depth. Here we report the results of a 2-year laboratory decomposition and leaching study designed to investigate the interactive effects of pyrolysis temperature levels (no pyrolysis, 300 °C, and 450 °C) and soil depth (surface soil, 0–10 cm depth; subsurface soil, 50–70 cm depth) on losses of 13 C-labeled jack pine (Pinus banksiana) wood, wood pyrolyzed at 300 °C (PyC300) and wood pyrolyzed at 450 °C (PyC450) as dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Losses of wood and PyC in the 13 C- DOC pool were measured in leachates drained from soils once a month over the course of 1 year, and at one single leaching event after 2 years. We found that pyrolysis temperature levels interacted with time and soil depth to affect losses of wood and PyC as DOC throughout the 1-year incubation and leaching study, with greater DOC losses from wood in surface soil (0.73 ± 0.076% of added C) than in subsurface soil (0.40 ± 0.063% of added C) averaged across sampling time. Monthly DOC losses from PyC were not affected by soil depth. Cumulative data indicated a small contribution of wood (2.86 ± 0.07%), PyC300 (0.40 ± 0.04%), and PyC450 (0.16 ± 0.01%) to total DOC leached from soils. DOC losses from wood and PyC300 (as a proportion of added C) were greater in surface soil than in subsurface soil, whereas DOC losses from PyC450 were unaffected by differences between surface and subsurface soil. Losses of DOC were greater from PyC300 than from PyC450 in surface soil, with no significant differences in DOC losses between PyC300 and PyC450 in subsurface soil. One single leaching event at the end of the 2-year decomposition study resulted in higher DOC losses from wood in subsurface soil than in surface soil likely due to desorption, and no differences in DOC losses between PyC300 and PyC450 regardless of soil depth. Our results suggest strong interactions between the initial physicochemical composition of organic C inputs and soil properties (soil depth as a proxy) that control the mobility and transport of PyC and should be better represented in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling gas migration through clay-based buffer material using coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics with stress-dependent gas permeability

A model for gas migration through clay-based buffer material is developed for modeling gas generation and migration associated with deep geologic nuclear waste disposal. The model is based on a multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics simulator that is adapted to consider enhanced gas flow when gas pressure is high enough to approach the confining stress magnitude. A key feature in the model is a direct coupling between gas permeability and stress, through a non-linear stress-dependent permeability function. The model was first tested and calibrated by modelling two different laboratory gas migration tests on Wyoming (MX-80) bentonite samples. The calibrated model was then applied to model gas migration through a bentonite buffer of a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) conducted at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden. Observed preferential gas migration along interfaces (between compacted blocks and along the canister surface) required explicit representation of such interfaces in the model. The model with the stress-dependent gas permeability accurately captured observed experimental responses in terms of gas breakthrough time, peak gas pressure, and cumulative gas flow rates. The calibrated model was finally applied to simulate migration of hydrogen gas generated within a breached nuclear waste canister over 10,000 years, involving migration of much larger gas volumes. For the considered gas generation rate and host rock properties, the generated gas could migrate through the bentonite buffer and released into the surrounding host rock at a maximum gas pressure somewhat higher than the initial total stress, though a significant amount of hydrogen remained within the buffer. This modelling sets the stage for further detailed analysis of the impact of hydrogen gas generation on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

A comparative analysis of numerical approaches for the description of gas flow in clay-based repository systems: From a laboratory to a large-scale gas injection test

There is nowadays a consensus among many countries that geological disposal is a favourable solution for the long-term management. Although different host formations and different barrier systems are under consideration around the world, clay-based materials form an important component for waste isolation in most national programmes. Hence, a good comprehension of the effect of gas flow on the hydro-mechanical behaviour of clay-based soils is essential, both at laboratory and field scale. Task B under the international cooperative project DECOVALEX-2023 has recently shown that, after some enhancement, models can be employed to reproduce laboratory scale tests, even with different sample geometries 37 . However, further work is required to understand whether they can be applied to simulate a large-scale experiment. Up-scaling of models for the advective transport of gas through clay-based low permeable material presents a number of problems related to the difficulty in obtaining consistent hydrogeological parameters and constitutive relationships at both laboratory and field scale. Based on a unique dataset from a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) performed at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory (Sweden), Task B within DECOVALEX-2023 has explored the refinement of these numerical strategies applied to the simulation of gas flow. Work performed within the task reveals that codes do not need to be substantially modified from the laboratory models to reproduce full-scale tests: indeed, model parameters calibrated and validated at laboratory scale have been applied to predict field scale gas flow at Lasgit, including peak gas pressure and injected cumulative gas volume. By means of (1) the introduction of interfaces between blocks to reflect the experimental configuration and the (2) adjustment of some parameters (e.g., higher permeability), the updated models are able to represent most of the key features observed in the experimental data, even at a large scale.

Tamayo-Mas, E↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate models for development of unconventional shale reservoirs by an integrated numerical approach of hydraulic fracturing, flow and geomechanics, and machine learning

We develop well-completion surrogate models by taking an integrated workflow of hydraulic fracturing, flow, geomechanics, and machine learning simulation. There are three steps in the proposed workflow. First, history-matching processes are conducted with the field data including pumping and production data for characterization. Second, full-physics simulation is performed with various parameters of the field development (e.g., cluster spacing, clusters per stage, pumping rates and times, amount of proppant, and well spacing) to generate multiple simulation results by changing the parameters of the completion design with well-known hydraulic fracturing, reservoir, geomechanics simulators to calculate fracture geometry, reservoir depressurization, induced stress changes. The workflow is demonstrated over a field in the Southern Midland Basin. Here, we take two completion scenarios: a single well case followed by a multi-well case. Finally, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm is employed to create surrogate models that can replicate the full-physics simulation results. Furthermore, results show that the trained models applied in the single well and multi-well cases for a particular geological system can provide good accuracy close to those provided by full-physics simulations. Specifically, the site-specific surrogate models can predict fracture parameters (length, height, and surface area) and cumulative production accurately with computational efficiency, suggesting our proposed workflow can be used as a pragmatic tool for expediting the well completion optimization process.

Geomechanics↗
DOE OSTI2021

A time-varying vulnerability index for COVID-19 in New Mexico, USA using generalized propensity scores

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted systemic inequities in the United States and resulted in a larger burden of negative social outcomes for marginalized communities. New Mexico, a state in the southwestern US, has a unique population with a large racial minority population and a high rate of poverty that may make communities more vulnerable to negative social outcomes from COVID-19. To identify which communities may be at the highest relative risk, we created a county-level vulnerability index. After the first COVID-19 case was reported in New Mexico on March 11, 2020, we fit a generalized propensity score model that incorporates sociodemographic factors to predict county-level viral exposure and thus, the generic risk to negative social outcomes such as unemployment or mental health impacts. We used four static sociodemographic covariates important for the state of New Mexico—population, poverty, household size, and minority population—and weekly cumulative case counts to iteratively run our model each week and normalize the exposure score to create a time-varying vulnerability index. We found the relative vulnerability between counties varied in the first eight weeks from the initial COVID-19 case before stabilizing. This framework for creating a location-specific vulnerability index in response to an ongoing disaster may be used as a quick, deployable metric to inform health policy decisions such as allocating state resources to the county level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Propagation of non-Gaussian voltage angle fluctuations in high-voltage power grids

Recent measurements have reported non-Gaussian tails in the distribution of frequency data in electric power grids. Large frequency deviations may induce grid instabilities and it is therefore crucial to understand how noise disturbances with long, non-Gaussian tails propagate. Here, we investigate how fluctuations in power feed-in, characterized by non-zero cumulants of their distribution, propagate through high-voltage power grids. Unlike previous investigations which focused on the white-noise limit, we consider the limit of long noise correlation time, where power feed-in fluctuates over times longer than the inherent dynamical time scales of the grid - the relevant regime for large-scale, high-voltage distribution grids. In this work, we show that in this limit, the skewness and kurtosis of the power feed-in distribution propagate similarly as its variance, independently of the distribution of inertia. Non-Gaussianities from individual sources of noise therefore persist throughout the entire network. This finding is corroborated by numerical results on a realistic model of the synchronous grid of continental Europe.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comprehensive analysis of transient pressure and rate data from CO 2 storage projects in a depleted pinnacle reef oil field complex, Michigan, USA

Pressure and rate data are commonly recorded as part of a basic monitoring program in CCS projects. This paper discusses the application of multiple analytical techniques to interpret pressure and rate transient data from CO 2 injection and storage operations. The techniques of interest, i.e., injection-falloff analysis, injectivity/productivity index analysis and pressure pulse arrival time analysis, are commonly used in the oil and gas industry to assess reservoir properties, but not well known in the CCS literature (especially the last two). Injection-falloff analysis involves log-log pressure derivative plotting for the falloff data and history-matching of the entire injection-falloff sequence to determine permeability. In the injectivity/productivity index analysis, rate-normalized pressure buildup is plotted against material balance time or ratio of cumulative injection to injection rate to determine the injectivity index (ratio of injection rate to stabilized pressure buildup) which can be related to the permeability-thickness product. The arrival time analysis identifies the arrival of a pressure disturbance (~0.1 psi change from ambient) to determine the hydraulic diffusivity from which permeability can be estimated. The applicability of these techniques is demonstrated via illustrative examples from multiple wells in different pinnacle carbonate reefs undergoing CO 2 -EOR in Northern Michigan. The paper ends with a discussion of the relative merits of each interpretive technique, as well as recommendations that could be useful for other field projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗