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At least 991 records · Page 55

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: marginalization over redshift distribution uncertainties using ranking of discrete realizations

ABSTRACT Cosmological information from weak lensing surveys is maximized by sorting source galaxies into tomographic redshift subsamples. Any uncertainties on these redshift distributions must be correctly propagated into the cosmological results. We present hyperrank, a new method for marginalizing over redshift distribution uncertainties, using discrete samples from the space of all possible redshift distributions, improving over simple parametrized models. In hyperrank, the set of proposed redshift distributions is ranked according to a small (between one and four) number of summary values, which are then sampled, along with other nuisance parameters and cosmological parameters in the Monte Carlo chain used for inference. This approach can be regarded as a general method for marginalizing over discrete realizations of data vector variation with nuisance parameters, which can consequently be sampled separately from the main parameters of interest, allowing for increased computational efficiency. We focus on the case of weak lensing cosmic shear analyses and demonstrate our method using simulations made for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We show that the method can correctly and efficiently marginalize over a wide range of models for the redshift distribution uncertainty. Finally, we compare hyperrank to the common mean-shifting method of marginalizing over redshift uncertainty, validating that this simpler model is sufficient for use in the DES Year 3 cosmology results presented in companion papers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predicting System Accidents with Model Analysis During Hybrid Simulation

Standard discrete event simulation is commonly used to identify system bottlenecks and starving and blocking conditions in resources and services. The CONFIG hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool can simulate such conditions in combination with inputs external to the simulation. This provides a means for evaluating the vulnerability to system accidents of a system's design, operating procedures, and control software. System accidents are brought about by complex unexpected interactions among multiple system failures , faulty or misleading sensor data, and inappropriate responses of human operators or software. The flows of resource and product materials play a central role in the hazardous situations that may arise in fluid transport and processing systems. We describe the capabilities of CONFIG for simulation-time linear circuit analysis of fluid flows in the context of model-based hazard analysis. We focus on how CONFIG simulates the static stresses in systems of flow. Unlike other flow-related properties, static stresses (or static potentials) cannot be represented by a set of state equations. The distribution of static stresses is dependent on the specific history of operations performed on a system. We discuss the use of this type of information in hazard analysis of system designs.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗

Estimating snow cover from high-resolution satellite imagery by thresholding blue wavelengths: Supporting Data

The extent and duration of snow cover is predicted to be altered as the climate changes. Developing high-resolution estimates of snow cover change is crucial for estimating changes in snow cover and the effects of these changes on watershed and ecosystems processes. Remote sensing tools have been a common method for rapidly mapping snow covered area (SCA) across a landscape. The most common remote sensing method for estimating SCA uses satellite-based calculations of the normalized difference snow index (NDSI), which relies on spectral measurements in the shortwave-infrared wavelengths (SWIR). NDSI is effective at catchment- to regional-scale estimates of SCA, but due to spatial resolution limitations of SWIR measurements, NDSI cannot be used to assess fine-scale SCA. In this work, we develop a new algorithm, called the Blue Snow Threshold (BST) algorithm, that maps high-resolution SCA by calculating a threshold on the blue wavelengths from high-resolution satellite imagery. This data package includes Orthorectified IKONOS-2 imagery (IkonosTestImage.tif) from August 14, 2004 at 1.00 meters Ground Sample Distance for Cook Inlet, Alaska (59.966414 , -152.982975). The Blue Snow Threshold algorithm (BST.py) was then used to produce a snow cover estimate (IkonosTestImage_BST.tif) for this study area. Additional imagery metadata is included in the ImageInfo.txt file. See Thaler et al., 2023 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2022.113403) for more information about the BST algorithm.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Neutrino heating in 1D, 2D, and 3D core-collapse supernovae: characterizing the explosion of high-compactness stars

Massive stars can end their lives with a successful supernova explosion (leaving behind a neutron star or, more rarely, a black hole), or a failed explosion that leaves behind a black hole. The density structure of the pre-collapse progenitor star already encodes much of the information regarding the outcome and properties of the explosion. However, the complexity of the collapse and subsequent shock expansion phases prevents drawing a straightforward connection between the pre-collapse and post-explosion properties. In order to derive such a connection several explodability studies have been performed in recent years. However, different studies can predict different explosion outcomes. In this article, we show how compactness, which is related to the average density of the star’s core, has an important role in determining the efficiency of neutrino heating, and therefore the outcome of the explosion. Commonly, high-compactness progenitors are assumed to yield failed explosions, due to their large mass accretion rates, preventing the shock from expanding. We show by analysing ~150 2D flash and F ornax simulations and 20 3D F ornax simulations that this is not the case. Instead, due to the rapid increase of neutrino heating with compactness, high-compactness progenitors lead to successful shock revival. We also show that 1D+ simulations that include v-driven convection using a mixing-length theory approach correctly reproduce this trend. Finally, we compare 1D+ models, which we show can reproduce some aspects of multi-D simulations with reasonable accuracy, with other widely used 1D models in the literature.

neutrinos↗

Mapping the Distribution of Wildfire Fuels Using AVIRIS in the Santa Monica Mountains

Catastrophic wildfires, such as the 1990 Painted Cave Fire in Santa Barbara or Oakland fire of 1991, attest to the destructive potential of fire in the wildland/urban interface. For example, during the Painted Cave Fire, 673 structures were consumed over a period of only six hours at an estimated cost of 250 million dollars (Gomes et al., 1993). One of the primary sources of fuels is chaparral, which consists of plant species that are adapted to frequent fires and may actually promote its ignition and spread of through volatile organic compounds in foliage. As one of the most widely distributed plant communities in Southern California, and one of the most common vegetation types along the wildland urban interface, chaparral represents one of the greatest sources of wildfire hazard in the region. An ongoing NASA funded research project was initiated in 1994 to study the potential of AVIRIS for mapping wildfire fuel properties in Southern California chaparral. The project was initiated in the Santa Monica Mountains, an east-west trending range in western Los Angeles County that has experienced extremely high fire frequencies over the past 70 years. The Santa Monica Mountains were selected because they exemplify many of the problems facing the southwest, forming a complex mosaic of land ownership intermixed with a diversity of chaparral age classes and fuel loads. Furthermore, the area has a wide diversity of chaparral community types and a rich background in supporting geographic information including fire history, soils and topography. Recent fires in the Santa Monica Mountains, including several in 1993 and the Calabasas fire of 1996 attest to the active fire regime present in the area. The long term objectives of this project are to improve existing maps of wildland fuel properties in the area, link AVIRIS derived products to fuel models under development for the region, then predict fire hazard through models that simulate fire spread. In this paper, we describe the AVIRIS derived products we are developing to map wildland fuels.

Roberts, Dar↗

Methodology and Tool for the Physical Security Analysis of Micro and Advanced Reactors

This work proposes a dynamic evaluation methodology to relax the conservatism in physical security evaluation, by leveraging an ongoing work in the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway. This methodology is implemented in a dynamic risk assessment tool named Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). The work extends EMRALD’s capability to support a sandbox feature where analysts can easily create attack scenarios and modify advanced/small modular reactor (A/SMR) security and safety features using templates. This approach saves time and cost since the analysis does not require creating detailed computer-aided design models, as is commonly required in commercial force-on-force software tools. EMRALD is completely free to use at https://emraldapp.inl.gov. We have developed basic templates including physical barriers, intrusion sensors, physical areas, and safety actions, that can be downloaded from EMRALD’s GitHub site: https://github.com/idaholab/EMRALD. These templates use generic data commonly used for training purposes, which do not reflect any actual operating nuclear reactor. Users may adjust the data in the templates with their own dataset and/or create new templates in EMRALD. The proposed methodology combines security and safety by assessing sabotage effects up to the radiological consequence to the public instead of merely the core damage state. This practice follows the industry standard for advanced non-light-water reactors currently proposed for endorsement by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The combination of security and safety is expressed in an achievability-consequence chart. EMRALD can be used to generate data for this chart. A hypothetical case study using a representative sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) facility is presented in this report to demonstrate this methodology. This case study does not contain any actual nuclear plant information. This work will benefit A/SMR vendors and utilities to implement security by design during the reactor design iteration phase, such that they do not have to perform upgrades and retrofits to the reactor after it is installed to improve its physical protection system. The tool may also be used to analyze domestic or foreign reactor designs to support the International Nuclear Security Techniques for Advanced Reactors (INSTAR) bilateral missions. Future works are planned to implement the methodology on a reference SFR reactor and a reference high-temperature gas-cooled reactor to obtain insights and lessons-learned for the A/SMR community.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data Analysis of the 2020 Central Idaho Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence

In an effort to inform the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee for the Idaho National Laboratory, we provide an improved aftershock catalog related to the March 31, 2020, Mw6.5 Stanley, Idaho earthquake from picks related to a temporary network of two real-time and 15 non-telemetered seismometers within the epicentral area. From the permanent and temporary (XP) real-time network, the USGS cataloged 1,946 aftershocks between April 1, 2020 and October 31, 2020. To improve aftershock location and magnitudes, we manually picked arrival times of P and S waves from off-line stations in the XP temporary network, generated a new crustal velocity model, and independently relocated each event using the HypoDD double-difference earthquake algorithm. We created our new velocity model from existing broadband and active source seismic campaign data that were acquired near the epicentral region prior to the 2020 earthquake. We compare arrival time differences, epicentral locations and depths between aftershocks recorded with the two catalogs. We find the addition of local stations provides tighter aftershock clustering that suggests an improved aftershock locations. To detect lower magnitude events, we employed deep learning. Our method solves common problems associated with detecting many events that have a low signal-to-noise ratio. From the machine learning database, we detected more than 74,000 aftershocks. Based on the number of identified earthquakes and Gutenberg-Richter relationships derived from the USGS catalog, we estimate that we have reduced the completion magnitude for the Stanley earthquake sequence to below M1 using this machine learning approach. We located each aftershock with our new velocity model. Our new velocity model and picks suggests aftershocks occurred mostly at shallower depths than assessed in the USGS catalog. These aftershocks align along two linear trends that suggest the activation of two unnamed primary faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

VIZARD: analysis of Affymetrix Arabidopsis GeneChip data

SUMMARY: The Affymetrix GeneChip Arabidopsis genome array has proved to be a very powerful tool for the analysis of gene expression in Arabidopsis thaliana, the most commonly studied plant model organism. VIZARD is a Java program created at the University of California, Berkeley, to facilitate analysis of Arabidopsis GeneChip data. It includes several integrated tools for filtering, sorting, clustering and visualization of gene expression data as well as tools for the discovery of regulatory motifs in upstream sequences. VIZARD also includes annotation and upstream sequence databases for the majority of genes represented on the Affymetrix Arabidopsis GeneChip array. AVAILABILITY: VIZARD is available free of charge for educational, research, and not-for-profit purposes, and can be downloaded at http://www.anm.f2s.com/research/vizard/ CONTACT: moseyko@uclink4.berkeley.edu.

Non-NASA Center↗

Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States

Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business-as-usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near-term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network-based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid-1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences in drought patterns. This is critical for highlighting possible weak systems that could inform adaptation strategies such as in the energy and agricultural sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Concurrent Engineering Tool for the New Mission Design Center at NASA Ames Research Center

The NASA Ames Mission Design Center (MDC) has undergone a significant transformation process in recent years, culminating in becoming a true Concurrent Engineering Center. The underlying goal of this transformation is to better serve the Ames PI community in a cost-effective and rapidly-responsive way, providing quality products pivotal to the decision-making proposal strategy of our center. The four pillars of the change focus on four areas: personnel, physical places, tools, and training. Personnel: the MDC switched from using a dedicated pool of engineers—mostly entry-level career—for a matrixed approach with more experienced Subject Matter Experts, usually involved in spaceflight projects. These SMEs get detailed to the MDC for the duration of the study on a part-time or full-time basis. Physical places: The physical aspect pertains mostly to the layout of the new Engineering building and the dedicated concurrent engineering layout to foster collaboration. The current plan includes a dedicated space for concurrent engineering sessions as well as dedicated project rooms for concept studies. Tool: the MDC team is developing a new in-house concurrent engineering tool to facilitate concurrent engineering sessions. The team leveraged the many lessons learned and insight gained from using the current concurrent engineering tool, in use since 2007. SMEs have been involved throughout its design and development, ensuring accuracy and providing validity to the implementation approach. This new tool is database-driven and allows a team to work concurrently on the same model of a mission concept. “Workspaces” are provided for each of the traditional spacecraft mission design disciplines, including cost accounting and systems engineering. There are multiple tiers of fidelity available within each workspace, which can be completed parametrically or independently from the other disciplines as needed or synchronously with the other disciplines. A “commit” step synchronizes a workspace with the mission database and identifies any potential conflicts, along with the user who entered the conflicting data. A Mission Summary workspace enables a Study Lead to run an effective CE session, displaying key graphics, workspace status information, and technical and monetary budget information. This new CE tool will be undergoing Beta Testing with its primary user base and a limited Parts database in the summer of 2020. The team plans to release the first fully operational version in December 2020. Training: working in early concept development and maturation for a space mission requires a unique mindset and being comfortable with uncertainties in an environment where requirements are not yet fully developed, and where changes and trade-offs happen at a high tempo. The MDC started a weekly training program to ensure a common knowledge base on how do develop and mature early concept studies, as well as how to operate in a concurrent engineering environment. In conclusion, the MDC transformation will provide the overall PI community focused on cost-effective small satellite scientific missions with a powerful tool to address and mature early concepts more effectively and efficiently.

David Mauro↗

Leveraging Pre-Built Catalogs and Object-Level Scheduling to Eliminate I/O Bottlenecks in HPC Environments

Modern High-Performance Computing (HPC) environments face mounting challenges due to the shift from large to small file datasets, along with an increasing number of users and parallelized applications. As HPC systems rely on Parallel File Systems (PFS), such as Lustre for data processing, performance bottlenecks stemming from Object Storage Target (OST) contention have become a significant concern. Existing solutions, such as LADS with its object-level scheduling approach, fall short in large-scale HPC environments due to their inability to effectively address metadata I/O bottlenecks and the growing number of I/O processes. This study highlights the pressing need for a comprehensive solution that tackles both OST contention and metadata I/O challenges in diverse HPC workloads. To address these challenges, we propose SwiftLoad, an object-level I/O scheduling framework that leverages a metadata catalog to enhance the performance and efficiency of parallel HPC utilities. The adoption of the metadata catalog mitigates the metadata I/O bottlenecks that commonly occur in HPC utilities, a challenge that is particularly pronounced in object-level I/O scheduling. SwiftLoad addresses OST contention and the uneven distribution of I/O processes across different OSTs through mathematical modeling and incorporates a Loader Configuration Module to regulate the number of I/O processes. Evaluated with two representative utilities—data deduplication profiling and data augmentation—SwiftLoad achieved performance improvements of up to 5.63x and 11.0x, respectively, on a production supercomputer.

HPC↗

Predictive Models of Genetic Redundancy in Arabidopsis thaliana

Abstract Genetic redundancy refers to a situation where an individual with a loss-of-function mutation in one gene (single mutant) does not show an apparent phenotype until one or more paralogs are also knocked out (double/higher-order mutant). Previous studies have identified some characteristics common among redundant gene pairs, but a predictive model of genetic redundancy incorporating a wide variety of features derived from accumulating omics and mutant phenotype data is yet to be established. In addition, the relative importance of these features for genetic redundancy remains largely unclear. Here, we establish machine learning models for predicting whether a gene pair is likely redundant or not in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana based on six feature categories: functional annotations, evolutionary conservation including duplication patterns and mechanisms, epigenetic marks, protein properties including posttranslational modifications, gene expression, and gene network properties. The definition of redundancy, data transformations, feature subsets, and machine learning algorithms used significantly affected model performance based on holdout, testing phenotype data. Among the most important features in predicting gene pairs as redundant were having a paralog(s) from recent duplication events, annotation as a transcription factor, downregulation during stress conditions, and having similar expression patterns under stress conditions. We also explored the potential reasons underlying mispredictions and limitations of our studies. This genetic redundancy model sheds light on characteristics that may contribute to long-term maintenance of paralogs, and will ultimately allow for more targeted generation of functionally informative double mutants, advancing functional genomic studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric nuclei in the Pacific midtroposphere: Their nature, concentration, and evolution

An extensive flight series was carried out during May-June 1990 in the remote North and South Pacific free tropospheric aboard the NASA DC-8. Condensation nuclei counters and optical particle counters provided information on aerosol particles with diameters between 0.003 and 7.0 micrometers. Vertical profiles revealed aerosol layers to be a common feature of the free troposphere. Regions with highest aerosol mass tended to have the highest concentrations of surface-derived nuclei but the lowest concentrations of total nuclei. Regions with lowest aerosol mass tended to have the highest concentrations of the smaller 'ultrafine' condensation nuclei with diameters below 0.02 mircometers. Horizontal transects totaling over 35,000 km at about 9 to 10-km altitude exhibited variability of approximately 3 orders of magnitude in both aerosol mass and number concentrations over spatial scales ranging from 1 to 1000 km. At these altitudes an approximate inverse relationship between ultrafine concentrations and the surface area of the larger aerosol was evident. Regions having lowest aerosol mass were characterized by aerosol thermal volatility, indicative of a predominately sulfuric acid composition, and by very high concentrations of ultrafine nuclei, indicative of recent homogeneous nucleation. These conditions were frequently observed but were conspicuously evident above cloud over the intertropical convergence zone. The clean, free troposphere appears to be a significant source region for new tropospheric nuclei. A simplified model of the lifetime, coagulation, and cycling of these nuclei suggests that they constitute a source of cloud condensation nuclei in the lower troposphere.

Clarke, Antony D.↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 36, No. 1, January-June 1995]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHORNOBYL ACCIDENT: 1 The Chornobyl Accident Revisited, Part II: The State of the Nuclear Fuel Located Within the Chornobyl Sarcophagus, A A. Borovoi and A. R. Sich; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 33 Nuclear Power Safety in Central and Eastern Europe, R. Wilson; 46 Safety of Nuclear Power Reactors in the Former Eastern European Countries, S. Chakraborty; 53 Technical Note: On the Definition of Common-Cause Failures, H. Paula; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 58 Modeling and Analysis of Core-Debris Recriticality During Hypothetical Severe Accidents in the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor, S.-H. Kim, V. Georgevich, D. B. Simpson, C. O. Slater, and R. P. Taleyarkhan; 68 Ignitability of Hydrogen/Oxygen/Diluent Mixtures in the Presence of Hot Surfaces, R. K. Kumar and G. W. Koroll; 94 Coupled RELAP5 and CONTAIN Accident Analysis Using PVM, K. A. Smith, A. J. Baratta, and G. E. Robinson; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 109 Application of Fuzzy Logic in Nuclear Reactor Control Part I: An Assessment of State-of-the-Art, A. S. Heger, N. K. Alang-Rashid, and M. Jamshidi; DESIGN FEATURES: 122 Twenty-Third DOE/NRC Nuclear Air-Cleaning and Treatment Conference, R. R. Bellamy, J. J. Hayes, and M. W. First; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 135 Atmospheric Dispersion and the Radiological Consequences of Normal Airborne Effluents from a Nuclear Power Plant, D. Fang, C. Z. Sun, and L. Yang; 142 Calculation of Distribution Coefficients for Radionuclides in Soils and Sediments, I. Puigdomenech and U. Bergstrom: OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 155 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 158 Operating Experience Feedback Report—Reliability of Safety-Related Steam Turbine-Driven Standby Pumps Used in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants, J. R. Boardman; 166 Turbine Building Hazards, H. L Ornstein; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 169 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 175 Proposed Rule Changes as of Dec. 31,1994; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 32 Harvard School of Public Health In-Place Filter Testing Workshop; 134 International Conference on Advances in the Operational Safety of Nuclear Power Plants; 193 30th Tennessee Industries Week; 193 DOE Technical Standards Program 1995 Workshop; 194 Multiphase Flow Experiments and Instrumentation; 180 The Authors; 185 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volumes 34 and 35.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Economic analysis of CCUS: Accelerated development for CO 2 EOR and storage in residual oil zones under the context of 45Q tax credit

Residual oil zones (ROZ) undergoing CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO 2 -EOR) may benefit from specific strategies to maximize their value. We evaluated several strategies for producing from a Permian Basin, West Texas, USA field’s ROZ. This ROZ lies below the main pay zone (MPZ) of the field. Such brownfield ROZs occur in the Permian Basin and elsewhere. Since brownfield ROZs are hydraulically connected to the MPZs, development sequences and schemes influence oil production, CO 2 storage, and net present value (NPV). We conducted economic assessments of various CO 2 injection/production schemes in the stacked ROZ-MPZ reservoir based on flow simulations of a high-resolution geocellular model built from wireline logs and core data and calibrated through production history matching. Flow simulations of water alternating gas (WAG) injection, such as switching injection from the MPZ to the ROZ and commingled production, were studied. Simulation results showed that simultaneous CO 2 injection into the MPZ and ROZ lead to the largest oil production and, generally, the largest NPV. If instead, CO 2 was simultaneously injected into the MPZ and ROZ, then into the ROZ alone, this maximized CO 2 storage. CO 2 storage can be used as a tax credit under the Internal Revenue Code, Section 45Q. Storage performance depends on the development approach and WAG ratio. Developing the ROZ increased storage compared to only producing from the MPZ. The WAG ratio to maximize oil production did not always yield the largest NPV. These findings are potentially applied to other Brownfield ROZs, which are common below San Andres reservoirs in the Permian Basin and other basins. ROZ development can increase oilfields’ NPV and carbon storage potential. Our study can serve as an analog for similar reservoirs. Here this work provides valuable insights into the further optimization of brownfield ROZ development and information for operators to plan to develop stacked ROZ-MPZ reservoirs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Force Limited Vibration Testing

This slide presentation reviews the concept and applications of Force Limited Vibration Testing. The goal of vibration testing of aerospace hardware is to identify problems that would result in flight failures. The commonly used aerospace vibration tests uses artificially high shaker forces and responses at the resonance frequencies of the test item. It has become common to limit the acceleration responses in the test to those predicted for the flight. This requires an analysis of the acceleration response, and requires placing accelerometers on the test item. With the advent of piezoelectric gages it has become possible to improve vibration testing. The basic equations have are reviewed. Force limits are analogous and complementary to the acceleration specifications used in conventional vibration testing. Just as the acceleration specification is the frequency spectrum envelope of the in-flight acceleration at the interface between the test item and flight mounting structure, the force limit is the envelope of the in-flight force at the interface . In force limited vibration tests, both the acceleration and force specifications are needed, and the force specification is generally based on and proportional to the acceleration specification. Therefore, force limiting does not compensate for errors in the development of the acceleration specification, e.g., too much conservatism or the lack thereof. These errors will carry over into the force specification. Since in-flight vibratory force data are scarce, force limits are often derived from coupled system analyses and impedance information obtained from measurements or finite element models (FEM). Fortunately, data on the interface forces between systems and components are now available from system acoustic and vibration tests of development test models and from a few flight experiments. Semi-empirical methods of predicting force limits are currently being developed on the basis of the limited flight and system test data. A simple two degree of freedom system is shown and the governing equations for basic force limiting results for this system are reviewed. The design and results of the shuttle vibration forces (SVF) experiments are reviewed. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) also was used to validate force limiting. Test instrumentation and supporting equipment are reviewed including piezo-electric force transducers, signal processing and conditioning systems, test fixtures, and vibration controller systems. Several examples of force limited vibration testing are presented with some results.

random vibration testing↗

Firesense: Supporting Operational Partners Through Co-Development

Fire is a natural disturbance and fundamental to many ecosystems, but, across the United States and many areas globally, fires have become more common, larger and more likely to occur at the same time. This has the potential to challenge resource allocation and response and requires coordinated integration of technology and tools at the spatial and temporal scales required by practitioners who make wildland fire management decisions. In the US wildfire is currently managed across state, federal, and tribal agencies who leverage various datasets to guide management decisions. FireSense, a NASA Science Mission Directorate project, aims to develop and deliver trailblazing technology and tools for use before, during, and after wildland fires by working together with land managers and practitioners. FireSense is focused on turning information into solutions by expanding partnerships and collaborations with operational agencies to inform and deliver data and technology to support decisions for wildland fire management. Through implementation across the US and with campaign activities in a variety of landscapes, coordinated research and development work will build upon adaptive and use-inspired approaches that can be put into operation. By leveraging and complementing partner activities through coordinated investment, we support a more comprehensive and cohesive response that can advance fire science to better understand fire behavior and effects through integrated measurement, monitoring and modeling. We present updates from in-progress technology development and field campaigns within the US which include sampling and application across scales with information from multiple sensors collocated with field measurements and highlighting the importance of cross-scale observations during the fire lifecycle. Coordinated investment in new science and technology for the complete fire lifecycle supports a comprehensive and cohesive fire response that help to overcome barriers and anticipate and manage the new reality of extreme fires in a warming world.

Jacquelyn Shuman↗