Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “combined indicator”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lycorine targets multiple myeloma stem cell‐like cells by inhibition of Wnt/β‐catenin pathway

Summary Multiple myeloma (MM) is characterised by the proliferation and accumulation of malignant plasma cells in the bone marrow. Despite the progress in treatment over the last few years, MM remains incurable and the majority of patients relapse. MM stem‐like cells (MMSCs) have been considered as the main reason for drug resistance and eventual relapse. Currently, therapeutic agents are not enough to eradicate MMSCs, and finding effective strategies to eradicate MMSCs may improve the outcome of patients. Here we showed that lycorine, a natural compound from the Amaryllidaceae species, effectively inhibits the proliferation of myeloma cells from cell lines or patients, mainly through decreasing ALDH1 + cells. Mechanistically, lycorine decreases the MMSC population through inhibition of the Wnt/β‐catenin pathway by reducing the β‐catenin protein level. Moreover, lycorine could overcome the increasing proportion of ALDH1 + cells caused by bortezomib (BTZ) treatment, and a combination BTZ and lycorine have a synergistic effect on anti‐myeloma cells. Furthermore, we found a similar reduction of MMSC characteristics by lycorine in BTZ‐resistant MM cells and primary CD138 + plasma cells. Collectively, our findings indicate lycorine as a promising agent to target MMSCs to overcome the drug resistance of BTZ, and that, alone or in combination with BTZ, lycorine is a potential therapeutic strategy for MM treatments.

Wang, Haiqin↗
NASA NTRS1977

A simple thermal model of the earth's surface for geologic mapping by remote sensing

Thermal inertia of the earth's surface can be used in geologic mapping as a complement to surface reflectance data as provided by Landsat. Thermal inertia cannot be determined directly but must be inferred from radiation temperature measurements (by thermal IR sensors) made at various times in the diurnal cycle, combined with a model of the surface heating processes. A model is developed which differs from those created previously for this purpose, because it includes sensible and latent heating. Tests of this model using field data indicate that it accurately determines the surface heating. When the model is used with field measurements of meteorological variables and is combined with remotely sensed temperature data, a thermal inertia image can be produced.

Kahle, A. B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combined shipping protection and impingement detection wrap

A packaging material comprised of a gas-impermeable base layer, an indicator layer, and a gas-impermeable top layer is disclosed. The top layer is selected to rupture upon experiencing an impingement or impact that exceeds a predetermined threshold. The indicator layer is configured to change visual appearance upon exposure to ambient air. The top layer further may be configured into a plurality of cells, with each cell filled with a gas that is inert with respect to the indicator layer. The cells may be of a size and shape configured to indicate the location and shape of an impingement or impact, to alert a recipient of an item protected by the packaging material of an area that may require further inspection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Elucidating Drought-Tolerance Mechanisms in Plant Roots through 1H NMR Metabolomics in Parallel with MALDI-MS, and NanoSIMS Imaging Techniques

As direct mediators between plants and soil, roots play an important role in metabolic responses to environmental stresses such as drought, yet these responses are vastly uncharacterized on a plant-specific level, especially for co-occurring species. Here, we aim to examine the effects of drought on root metabolic profiles and carbon allocation pathways of three tropical rainforest species by combining cutting-edge metabolomic and imaging technologies in an in situ position-specific 13C-pyruvate root-labeling experiment. Further, washed (rhizosphere-depleted) and unwashed roots were examined to test the impact of microbial presence on root metabolic pathways. Drought had a species-specific impact on the metabolic profiles and spatial distribution in Piper sp. and Hibiscus rosa sinensis roots, signifying different defense mechanisms; Piper sp. enhanced root structural defense via recalcitrant compounds including lignin, while H. rosa sinensis enhanced biochemical defense via secretion of antioxidants and fatty acids. In contrast, Clitoria fairchildiana, a legume tree, was not influenced as much by drought but rather by rhizosphere presence where carbohydrate storage was enhanced, indicating a close association with symbiotic microbes. This study demonstrates how multiple techniques can be combined to identify how plants cope with drought through different drought-tolerance strategies and the consequences of such changes on below-ground organic matter composition.

Drought, Carbon cycle, MALDI-MSI, Metabolomics, Na↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Luminescence Imager for Exploration

The Luminescence Imager for Exploration (LIfE) is an automated bright-field and epifluorescence microscope designed identify and characterize morphological and textural indicators of life and to identify, resolve, and characterize microscale structural features indicative of cells and cell fragments. To achieve these objectives, LIfE uses visible light to image organic and inorganic structures with submicron resolution, combined with, deep ultraviolet (DUV), ultraviolet (UV), and visible-light excitation for autofluorescence characterization of sample organic and mineral content. LIfE also autonomously manipulates samples to stain key molecular and structural indicators of microbial life (e.g., proteins, lipids, and nucleic acids) for fluorescence microscopic detection.

R C Quinn↗
NASA NTRS2005

X-Ray Absorbed, Broad-Lined, Red AGN and the Cosmic X-ray Background

This award represents the second phase of an X-ray study of QSOs that are heavily obscured in the optical/near-IR. An earlier survey revealed that these active galactic nuclei (AGN) are also typically strongly absorbed at high photon energies, but the enhanced sensitivity of XMM-Newton provided for the first time the opportunity to measure the spectral indices of individual sources and to test the possibility that obscured AGN are responsible for a substantial portion of the cosmic X-ray background (CXRB). The new observations confirm and greatly extend the earlier results. Substantial intervening absorbing material is detected for 3 of the sources, and 2 additional targets show hard power-law continua. In addition, soft X-ray excesses are detected in 3 of sources, indicating the presence of extended regions of ionized gas. This component is-particularly well-defined in the Type 1 source 2MASS2344+1221, allowing analysis and modeling at a level of detail unusual for such distant sources. An important finding that parallels conclusions from optical polarimetry is the lack of dependence of absorption on optical spectral class (Type 1 or 2). The combination of strong polarization and X-ray absorption in sources that show strong, broad emission lines indicates either a very small (nuclear) absorber or a favored viewing angle which allows the X-ray source to be covered but the surrounding broad emission-line region to be largely exposed. The observed spectral also indicate that obscured AGN of both Type 1 and 2 contribute significantly to the CXRB at higher X-ray energies.

Schmidt, Gary D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deciphering the Mechanistic Role of Individual Oxide Phases and Their Combinations in Supported Mn–Na 2 WO 4 Catalysts for Oxidative Coupling of Methane

Oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) is an attractive direct route for upgrading methane to valuable chemicals. In this study, Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) and steady state experiments are conducted to understand the role of individual oxide phases and their combinations in supported Mn-Na 2 WO 4 /SiO 2 catalysts for OCM. The results from TAP transient kinetic studies indicate that Mn plays an important role in promoting gas phase oxygen activation, while NaO x /SiO 2 and WO x /SiO 2 are relatively inert towards gas phase oxygen and methane activation. However, the supported catalyst combining Na and W in the form Na 2 WO 4 show enhanced gas phase oxygen activation exhibiting a much lower oxygen activation energy (148 kJ/mol) and enhanced activity toward methane activation as compared to the individual supported oxide catalysts. Addition of Mn to Na 2 WO 4 /SiO 2 further decreases the oxygen activation energy by 40 kJ/mol. Moreover, methane activation is also enhanced with CH 3 as the main intermediate but, with increasing Mn content, more CH 2 intermediates are observed. Different forms of oxygen (both dioxygen and atomic) are detected on the catalyst surface using isotopic pump/probe pulsing and their distribution is found to depend on the catalyst composition. An optimal Mn content in the Na 2 WO 4 /SiO 2 catalyst system is needed to enhance the amount of dioxide surface species (e.g., superoxide 16 O 2 - or peroxide 16 O 2 2- ) associated with the Na 2 WO 4 leading to high C 2 selectivity for OCM. When the Mn content is too high, the larger MnOx domains are shown to contribute to the formation of higher concertation of monoxide surface species that lead to nonselective OCM pathways. This insight from transient kinetic characterization using TAP combined with conventional steady state studies, provides a deeper understanding of the role of individual oxide phases and their combination on supported catalysts toward the formation of intermediate surface species and their impact on the OCM reaction mechanism. This knowledge is critical toward designing superior catalyst formulations for OCM.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1960

Some Examples of the Applications of the Transonic and Supersonic Area Rules to the Prediction of Wave Drag

The experimental wave drags of bodies and wing-body combinations over a wide range of Mach numbers are compared with the computed drags utilizing a 24-term Fourier series application of the supersonic area rule and with the results of equivalent-body tests. The results indicate that the equivalent-body technique provides a good method for predicting the wave drag of certain wing-body combinations at and below a Mach number of 1. At Mach numbers greater than 1, the equivalent-body wave drags can be misleading. The wave drags computed using the supersonic area rule are shown to be in best agreement with the experimental results for configurations employing the thinnest wings. The wave drags for the bodies of revolution presented in this report are predicted to a greater degree of accuracy by using the frontal projections of oblique areas than by using normal areas. A rapid method of computing wing area distributions and area-distribution slopes is given in an appendix.

Nelson, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Algorithmic Classification of Raman Spectra Biosignatures: Improving Life Detection Confidence

“Agnostic” biosignatures – indicators of life (or the absence of life), independent of a particular biochemistry – are increasingly considered a high standard for life detection. The Ladder of Life Detection (2018) called for investigating how combinations of independent and different potential biosignatures affect confidence. To address this gap, statistical classification of elemental abundances, isotopic fractionation, and reflectance spectroscopy (VNIR) has been implemented. Raman spectroscopy, highly desirable due to its wide availability, has the potential to improve this predictive power. This work implemented biosignature classification algorithms on Raman data alone, in preparation for combination with the other data types. Raman spectroscopy data was collected from published databases and papers as part of a manually curated dataset of “indicative” and “non-indicative of life” samples. These currently include 61 non-indicative samples (meteorites, magnetite); 3 indicative living samples (bacteria); 20 indicative non-living samples (chalk, bone); and 12 indicative mixed (with non-indicative material) samples (soil, microbial mats). Laboratory work is ongoing to characterize additional samples, particularly a greater breadth of mixed systems. Spectra were interpolated, filtered with the Savitzsky-Golay filter, and de-noised. For a preliminary examination, agnostic features were manually extracted including mean intensity, number of peaks, and mean peak width. Different peak prominences and filtering polynomials were used to refine features. Classification algorithms were implemented: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), Gaussian naïve bayes (GNB). Lastly, Monte Carlo simulations on 1,000 50%-train-test-splits were used to validate classification performance and feature significance. The preliminary feature set achieved its highest AUC of 0.52 with LR, with no strongly discriminatory features. Work to improve feature extraction, such as through deep learning with back propagation, is planned. In future work, the Raman data will be combined with the other data types, and potentially new data types such as enantiomeric excess. This project was partially supported through the NASA Ames Project EXcellence (APEX) incubator program.

Astrobiology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiple simultaneous faults’ impacts on air-conditioner behavior and performance of a charge diagnostic method

Although there have been several studies that have focused on the effects of faults on the performance and on the characteristic features that could be used to detect faults, almost none of the research has studied the effects of multiple simultaneous faults. Existing fault detection and diagnosis approaches that have been developed based on single faults may struggle with simultaneous faults. Here, this paper is part of a series that present a methodology and comprehensive measurement data from a battery of laboratory tests on an air-conditioner with combinations of common faults (refrigerant charge, evaporator airflow, non-condensable gas, and liquid line restrictions) imposed, to show how the indicator variables and overall performance are impacted. The system has a microtube condenser and a fixed-orifice (FXO) expansion device, which are found to affect the features’ fault sensitivity. This experiment is the first to test these combined faults in an FXO-equipped system, so comparisons are made to a previously studied thermostatic expansion valve-equipped system. Finally, a promising charge diagnostic technology is assessed, to see how it is impacted by other faults. The faults reduced capacity by up to 42%, and efficiency by up to 39%. The charge diagnostic performed well, even with multiple faults present.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Particle acceleration in solar flares - Observations

Contrary to our historical understanding, the energetic particles in most major solar proton events do not come from the flare itself. The particle abundances, ionization states, time evolution, and longitude distributions all indicate that the particles are accelerated from the ambient plasma by a shock wave driven by a coronal mass ejection in these events. In contrast, the particles that do come from impulsive solar flares are unique in character. These particles are electron rich, have He-3/He-4 enhancements of up to 10,000, and enhancements in heavy elements such as Fe/C by factors of 10. The high ionization state of Fe, +20 indicates that the material has been heated to temperatures of about 2 x 10 exp 7 K. It is generally believed that preferential heating by selective absorption of plasma waves is combined with stochastic acceleration in these events. Recent studies of the broad gamma-ray lines emitted by energetic particles within the flare loops indicate that they are also Fe-rich, He-3 rich and proton-poor like the particles seen at 1 AU. In large impulsive events, particles from the impulsive phase may be reaccelerated by a coronal blast-wave shock.

Reames, Donald V.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nucleation and growth of molybdenum disulfide grown by thermal atomic layer deposition on metal oxides

To enable greater control over thermal atomic layer deposition (ALD) of molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ), here we report studies of the reactions of molybdenum hexafluoride (MoF 6 ) and hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) with metal oxide substrates from nucleation to few-layer films. In situ quartz crystal microbalance experiments performed at 150, 200, and 250 °C revealed temperature-dependent nucleation behavior of the MoF 6 precursor, which is attributed to variations in surface hydroxyl concentration with temperature. In situ Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy coupled with ex situ x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) indicated the presence of molybdenum oxide and molybdenum oxyfluoride species during nucleation. Density functional theory calculations additionally support the formation of these species as well as predicted metal oxide to fluoride conversion. Residual gas analysis revealed reaction by-products, and the combined experimental and computational results provided insights into proposed nucleation surface reactions. With additional ALD cycles, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy indicated steady film growth after ~13 cycles at 200 °C. XPS revealed that higher deposition temperatures resulted in a higher fraction of MoS 2 within the films. Deposition temperature was found to play an important role in film morphology with amorphous films obtained at 200 °C and below, while layered films with vertical platelets were observed at 250 °C. Finally, these results provide an improved understanding of MoS 2 nucleation, which can guide surface preparation for the deposition of few-layer films and advance MoS 2 toward integration into device manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cooperative roles of water and metal-support interfaces in the selective hydrogenation of cinnamaldehyde over cobalt boride catalysts

Chemoselectivity in the hydrogenation of carbonyl over alkene bonds is valuable for producing industrial chemicals. In this study, we investigate the role of water in the selective hydrogenation of cinnamaldehyde on cobalt and cobalt boride catalysts by combining rate measurements, in situ characterization, and computational calculations. Ex situ and in situ spectroscopic analyses indicate that the boron species do not significantly modify the intrinsic electronic properties of cobalt. However, during thermal treatments, they exsolve from the bulk phase and become enriched on the surface, forming acidic species that enhance the activity and selectivity of carbonyl bond hydrogenation by three and two times, respectively. A small amount of water is able to promote hydrogenation. When titania, ceria, and zirconia are used as supports, metal-support interactions result in smaller particles that show a drop in selectivity toward the desirable unsaturated alcohol. Overall, the combination of the presence of boron species and strong metal-support interactions protects the catalysts from water attack, resulting in enhanced stability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2016

Reliability Characterization of TaOx-Based Commercial ReRAM in Combination with Radiation

We present reliability data combined with total dose gamma radiation for one of the first commercially available resistive memory devices. These Tantalum Oxide (TaOX)-based resistive memory chips demonstrate operation in dynamic program and erase testing up to ~130 Krad(Si) of 60Co gamma dose. In static and unbiased conditions, the stored data in the memory cells were able to withstand up to 50Mrad(Si) of exposure. The access circuitry, though, seemed less robust to gamma radiation and was able to operate only up to a total dose of 3Mrad(Si). Post exposure reliability as indicated by endurance, cycling error rate, and data retention tests showed no detectable impact from the combination with prior gamma irradiation. Overall, the total dose radiation tolerance of the commercial TaOx-based resistive memory chip appears to be higher than flash memory chips and in agreement with prior tests conducted with single cell resistive memories.

total ionizing dose↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Thermal Energy Storage Configurations for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply: Conceptual Study and Engineering Designs

The industries examined in this report primarily rely on moderate-temperature heat provided by gas- or coal-fired boilers and combined heat and power (CHP) plants, delivered through standard process steam systems. High-temperature energy demands are often industry-specific and typically exceed the capabilities of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). While it is technically feasible to replace process steam from fossil-based heat sources with nuclear energy, certain industries, such as methanol production and pulp and paper, face technoeconomic challenges in integrating nuclear energy without major changes or a technological shift. This is mainly due to the limited external energy demand remaining after the use of internal byproducts, waste heat recovery, and simple efficiency improvements. Achieving full decarbonization of these processes with nuclear energy would require significant technological advancements, involving experimental technology and substantial investments, making widespread adoption in existing industrial plants unlikely in the near term. This study reviews TES options in the context of enabling a flexible CHP supply while maintaining a steady nuclear heat input. Heat storage systems that interface between the reactor primary fluid and the CHP system offer superior performance and flexibility. Specifically, steam extraction downstream of the reheater with a two-tank molten-salt TES appears as the best solution regarding thermodynamic system benefits and system drawbacks. Using selected system configurations, a conceptual design of an industrial energy park was developed for industries with varying energy demands, such as steel production plants utilizing electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and chemical plants, as well as for those with constant energy demands, like petroleum refineries. This design highlights the capabilities of TES and explores its potential business cases. The study also conceptually develops the potential for integrating additional energy sources with nuclear systems through the implementation of TES. The potential of the HTGR-TES-CHP system was also evaluated considering key uncertainties such as industrial demand profiles, external grid access availability, and eligible tax credit levels, using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network. Sensitivity of net present value to these uncertainties was analyzed to determine the optimal number of nuclear reactors (and CHP systems) and the suitable TES capacity. The results were interpreted from a decision-maker’s perspective, focusing on three key areas: deployment strategy (oversized units vs. undersized units with TES support), industrial process characteristics (thermal-intensive single profiles vs. electricity-intensive combined profiles), and operational goals (maximizing profits vs. minimizing natural gas (NG) consumption or external grid dependence). The optimization results indicate that the HTGR-TES-CHP system significantly reduces reliance on NG boilers for individual industrial processes by 9-60% (in NG capacity factor), with an average reduction of 38%, compared to standalone NG boiler operation case (Business As Usual [BAU]). For combined industrial processes, the reduction ranges from 37-77%, with an average of 60%. Additionally, the system greatly reduces dependence on external grids. In meeting industrial electrical demands, a 33-100% self-sufficient internal electricity supply is achieved for single industrial process, with an average of 74%, compared to the BAU scenario, where 100% of electricity is imported. For combined processes, 35-100% of internal electricity demands are met by the reactor, with an average of 73%. At last, the relative NG price levels at which the proposed HTGR-TES-CHP system can cost-effectively enter the market currently dominated by existing NG boilers were estimated. For a moderate HTGR CAPEX level ($\$$2500/kWth, $\$$6329/kWe), the analysis suggests that NG prices must be 2.5 to 7 times higher than HTGR variable operating and maintenance costs for single industrial process, and 5.5 to 9.5 times higher for a combined process scenario. Tax credit modeling shows that the Investment Tax Credit significantly reduces the price threshold needed to break even, making the system competitive with NG boilers in certain cases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A putative chordate luciferase from a cosmopolitan tunicate indicates convergent bioluminescence evolution across phyla

Abstract Pyrosomes are tunicates in the phylum Chordata, which also contains vertebrates. Their gigantic blooms play important ecological and biogeochemical roles in oceans. Pyrosoma , meaning “fire-body”, derives from their brilliant bioluminescence. The biochemistry of this light production is unknown, but has been hypothesized to be bacterial in origin. We found that mixing coelenterazine—a eukaryote-specific luciferin—with Pyrosoma atlanticum homogenate produced light. To identify the bioluminescent machinery, we sequenced P. atlanticum transcriptomes and found a sequence match to a cnidarian luciferase (RLuc). We expressed this novel luciferase (PyroLuc) and, combined with coelenterazine, it produced light. A similar gene was recently predicted from a bioluminescent brittle star, indicating that RLuc-like luciferases may have evolved convergently from homologous dehalogenases across phyla (Cnidaria, Echinodermata, and Chordata). This report indicates that a widespread gene may be able to functionally converge, resulting in bioluminescence across animal phyla, and describes and characterizes the first putative chordate luciferase.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Kentucky Disasters: Multi-Hazard Approach to Mapping Flood Susceptibility and Vulnerability in Kentucky

Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster in Kentucky, with major flood events in 2022 and 2023 highlighting the need for flood risk assessment. In partnership with the National Weather Service Jackson and Paducah Forecast Offices and the Kentucky Climate Center, we mapped flood risk in Kentucky using a multi-hazard approach that considered two dimensions of risk: flood susceptibility based on a weighted combination of seven physical factors and flood vulnerability based on 13 socioeconomic and infrastructure factors. We additionally analyzed NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations of surface soil moisture to explore the utility of SMAP observations for future analysis of flood risk. By analyzing flood susceptibility, we found that with equal rainfall, western Kentucky generally displays a higher propensity to flood than eastern Kentucky. In contrast, our flood vulnerability analysis indicated that more vulnerable areas were generally concentrated in the eastern part of the state. Through a combined perspective, our flood risk analysis identified much of the state as having moderate degrees of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. Our parallel analysis of antecedent soil moisture found that SMAP soil moisture levels were variable in the months leading up to each flood event but were drier than normal in the month prior to the 2023 event, as shown by negative soil moisture anomalies. These results were limited by challenges with weighting input parameters and a lack of validation but overall demonstrate the feasibility of using GIS and Earth observations for mapping flood risk and soil moisture.

analytic hierarchy process↗