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At least 991 records · Page 55

Modeling the middle atmosphere circulation

Some of the motivations for constructing models of the middle atmosphere circulation are given. These are as follows: (1) to provide a better understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics; (2) to study the coupling of middle atmosphere dynamics with radiation and chemistry; (3) to study the sensitivity of tropospheric climate modeling and/or weather forecasting to changes in the middle atmosphere; (4) to better understand the limitations of more simplified models; (5) to supply a proxy for atmospheric data for diagnostic analysis; and finally, (6) for forecast-analysis of data. Different types of models are discussed in relation to their anticipated use. Various model simplifications, such as using the quasi-geostrophic set of equations and simplified radiative transfer, are discussed as are some of the consequences of these simplifications. Some of the accomplishments of middle atmosphere circulation modeling are presented as are some of the difficulties in existing models. Finally, some of the problems in constructing and verifying middle atmosphere circulation models are discussed.

Geller, M. A.↗

The Cloud Radar System

Improvement in our understanding of the radiative impact of clouds on the climate system requires a comprehensive view of clouds including their physical dimensions, dynamical generation processes, and detailed microphysical properties. To this end, millimeter vave radar is a powerful tool by which clouds can be remotely sensed. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has developed the Cloud Radar System (CRS). CRS is a highly sensitive 94 GHz (W-band) pulsed-Doppler polarimetric radar that is designed to fly on board the NASA high-altitude ER-2 aircraft. The instrument is currently the only millimeter wave radar capable of cloud and precipitation measurements from above most all clouds. Because it operates from high-altitude, the CRS provides a unique measurement perspective for cirrus cloud studies. The CRS emulates a satellite view of clouds and precipitation systems thus providing valuable measurements for the implementation and algorithm validation for the upcoming NASA CloudSat mission that is designed to measure ice cloud distributions on the global scale using a spaceborne 94 GHz radar. This paper describes the CRS instrument and preliminary data from the recent Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE). The radar design is discussed. Characteristics of the radar are given. A block diagram illustrating functional components of the radar is shown. The performance of the CRS during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign is discussed.

Racette, Paul↗

Simulating Mars' Dust Cycle with a Mars General Circulation Model: Effects of Water Ice Cloud Formation on Dust Lifting Strength and Seasonality

The dust cycle is critically important for the current climate of Mars. The radiative effects of dust impact the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere [1,2,3]. Although dust is present in the Martian atmosphere throughout the year, the level of dustiness varies with season. The atmosphere is generally the dustiest during northern fall and winter and the least dusty during northern spring and summer [4]. Dust particles are lifted into the atmosphere by dust storms that range in size from meters to thousands of kilometers across [5]. Regional storm activity is enhanced before northern winter solstice (Ls~200 degrees - 240 degrees), and after northern solstice (Ls~305 degrees - 340 degrees ), which produces elevated atmospheric dust loadings during these periods [5,6,7]. These pre- and post- solstice increases in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere with cross-equatorial transport of dust leading to enhanced dust lifting in the southern hemisphere [6]. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles [8,9,10]. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading.

Kahre, Melinda A.↗

Coupling the Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Investigating the Role of Clouds in Controlling the Vertical Distribution of Dust During N. H. Summer

The dust cycle is critically important for the current climate of Mars. The radiative effects of dust impact the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere (Gierasch and Goody, 1968; Haberle et al., 1982; Zurek et al., 1992). Although dust is present in the Martian atmosphere throughout the year, the level of dustiness varies with season. The atmosphere is generally the dustiest during northern fall and winter and the least dusty during northern spring and summer (Smith, 2004). Dust particles are lifted into the atmosphere by dust storms that range in size from meters to thousands of kilometers across (Cantor et al., 2001). During some years, regional storms combine to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by as much as 40 K (Smith et al., 2002). Key recent observations of the vertical distribution of dust indicate that elevated layers of dust exist in the tropics and sub-tropics throughout much of the year (Heavens et al., 2011). These observations have brought particular focus on the processes that control the vertical distribution of dust in the Martian atmosphere. The goal of this work is to further our understanding of how clouds in particular control the vertical distribution of dust, particularly during N. H. spring and summer

Mars dust↗

Role of Updraft Velocity in Temporal Variability of Global Cloud Hydrometeor Number

Understanding how dynamical and aerosol inputs affect the temporal variability of hydrometeor formation in climate models will help to explain sources of model diversity in cloud forcing, to provide robust comparisons with data, and, ultimately, to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of the aerosol indirect effect. This variability attribution can be done at various spatial and temporal resolutions with metrics derived from online adjoint sensitivities of droplet and crystal number to relevant inputs. Such metrics are defined and calculated from simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5.1). Input updraft velocity fluctuations can explain as much as 48% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number and 61% in droplet number in GEOS-5 and up to 89% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number in CAM5.1. In both models, this vertical velocity attribution depends strongly on altitude. Despite its importance for hydrometeor formation, simulated vertical velocity distributions are rarely evaluated against observations due to the sparsity of relevant data. Coordinated effort by the atmospheric community to develop more consistent, observationally based updraft treatments will help to close this knowledge gap.

cloud condensation nuclei↗

Open-Source Science-led Development of the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) Mission Science Data System (SDS)

The Earth System Observatory (ESO) Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) mission will provide space-based and suborbital observations of collocated cloud, dynamic, precipitation and aerosol processing leading to improved weather, air quality, and climate predictions. The AOS Science Data System (SDS) will be a system of systems developed within the Cloud to manage the research and operational processing of AOS mission orbital and suborbital sensors and curate these data for reprocessing (e.g., in near real-time or by collection) and transfer them to a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for long-term storage. Further, AOS SDS will follow guidelines provided by NASA Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) program including standard conventions for data file formats, naming, and metadata to improve data interoperability, interpretability, usability, discovery, provenance, and spatiotemporal representativeness. The AOS mission follows NASA’s lead in making a commitment to Open-Source Science (OSS) including the sharing of data, software, and knowledge in an open and timely manner. Each of the AOS SDS system components will be developed with open-source concepts including components of SDS itself as well as AOS mission algorithms. Further, the AOS SDS assumes the role to lead and facilitate OSS activities for the AOS mission. This presentation describes the framework of the AOS SDS and its integral part in facilitating OSS within the AOS mission.

David Giles↗

Open-Source Science-led Development of the AOS Mission Science Data System (SDS)

The Earth System Observatory (ESO) Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) mission will provide space-based and suborbital observations of collocated cloud, dynamic, precipitation and aerosol processing leading to improved weather, air quality, and climate predictions. The AOS Science Data System (SDS) will be a system of systems developed within the Cloud to manage the research and operational processing of AOS mission orbital and suborbital sensors and curate these data for reprocessing (e.g., in near real-time or by collection) and transfer them to a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for long-term storage. Further, AOS SDS will follow guidelines provided by NASA Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) program including standard conventions for data file formats, naming, and metadata to improve data interoperability, interpretability, usability, discovery, provenance, and spatiotemporal representativeness. The AOS mission follows NASA’s lead in making a commitment to Open-Source Science (OSS) including the sharing of data, software, and knowledge in an open and timely manner. Each of the AOS SDS system components will be developed with open-source concepts including components of SDS itself as well as AOS mission algorithms. Further, the AOS SDS assumes the role to lead and facilitate OSS activities for the AOS mission. This presentation describes the framework of the AOS SDS and its integral part in facilitating OSS within the AOS mission.

David M. Giles↗

Open-Source Science-Driven Development of the Science Data System (SDS) for Earth System Observatory (ESO) Atmospheric Missions

The NASA Earth System Observatory (ESO) atmospheric missions will provide space-based and suborbital observations of collocated cloud, dynamic, precipitation and aerosol processing leading to improved weather, air quality, and climate predictions. The Science Data System (SDS) will deploy the adaptive processing system (APS) developed within the Cloud to manage the research and operational processing of ESO atmospheric mission orbital and suborbital sensors and curate these data for near real-time and collection reprocessing and transfer them to a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for long-term storage and distribution. Further, the SDS will follow guidelines provided by NASA Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) program including standard conventions for data file formats, naming, and metadata to improve data interoperability, interpretability, usability, discovery, provenance, and spatiotemporal representativeness. The SDS follows NASA’s commitment to Open-Source Science (OSS) including the sharing of data, software, and knowledge in an open and timely manner. Each of the SDS system components will be developed with open-source concepts including components of APS itself as well as ESO atmospheric mission algorithms. This presentation describes the framework of the SDS and its integral part in facilitating OSS within the ESO atmospheric missions.

David M. Giles↗

High Spectral Resolution Lidar – Generation 2 (HSRL-2) Retrievals of Ocean Surface Wind Speed: Methodology and Evaluation

Ocean surface wind speed (i.e., wind speed 10 m above sea level) is a critical parameter used by atmospheric models to estimate the state of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). Accurate surface wind speed measurements in diverse locations are required to improve characterization of MABL dynamics and assess how models simulate large-scale phenomena related to climate change and global weather patterns. To provide these measurements, this study introduces and evaluates a new surface wind speed data product from the NASA Langley Research Center nadir-viewing High Spectral Resolution Lidar – generation 2 (HSRL-2) using data collected as part of the NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) mission. The HSRL-2 can directly measure vertically resolved aerosol backscatter and extinction profiles without additional constraints or assumptions, enabling the instrument to accurately derive atmospheric attenuation and directly determine surface reflectance (i.e., surface backscatter). Also, the high horizontal spatial resolution of the HSRL-2 retrievals (0.5 s or ∼ 75 m along track) allows the instrument to probe the fine-scale spatial variability in surface wind speeds over time along the flight track and over breaks in broken cloud fields. A rigorous evaluation of these retrievals is performed by comparing coincident HSRL-2 and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Airborne Vertical Atmosphere Profiling System (AVAPS) dropsonde data, owing to the joint deployment of these two instruments on the ACTIVATE King Air aircraft. These comparisons show correlations of 0.89, slopes of 1.04 and 1.17, and y intercepts of −0.13 and −1.05 m s−1 for linear and bisector regressions, respectively, and the overall accuracy is calculated to be 0.15 ± 1.80 m s−1. It is also shown that the dropsonde surface wind speed data most closely follow the HSRL-2 distribution of wave slope variance using the distribution proposed by Hu et al. (2008) rather than the ones proposed by Cox and Munk (1954) and Wu (1990) for surface wind speeds below 7 m s−1, with this category comprising most of the ACTIVATE data set. The retrievals are then evaluated separately for surface wind speeds below 7 m s−1 and between 7 and 13.3 m s−1 and show that the HSRL-2 retrieves surface wind speeds with a bias of ∼ 0.5 m s−1 and an error of ∼ 1.5 m s−1, a finding not apparent in the cumulative comparisons. Also, it is shown that the HSRL-2 retrievals are more accurate in the summer (−0.18 ± 1.52 m s−1) than in the winter (0.63 ± 2.07 m s−1), but the HSRL-2 is still able to make numerous (N=236) accurate retrievals in the winter. Overall, this study highlights the abilities and assesses the performance of the HSRL-2 surface wind speed retrievals, and it is hoped that further evaluation of these retrievals will be performed using other airborne and satellite data sets.

Sanja Dmitrovic↗

Lack of clear standards and usable comparisons of downscaled climate projections pose a roadblock for US climate discovery and adaptation

Abstract The release of global climate projections coupled with the demand for local-resolution climate-forced meteorology has prompted many research groups to downscale these projections using various statistical, dynamical, and current machine learning techniques. Such downscaled datasets are being used to plan infrastructure and other community needs over the coming decades. Faced with roughly a dozen available US downscaled datasets, many practitioners ask, ‘What are the relevant differences between datasets?’ This work highlights the difficulty of comparing downscaled datasets and illustrates ways in which datasets differ even when using identical climate model input data. We show that substantial variability in precipitation projections arises from downscaling alone and that the downscaled dataset agreement varies depending on global climate projection. This analysis emphasizes the need for greater coordination and movement toward rigorous benchmarking of downscaling strategies within the downscaling research community, à la the land-modeling community, to better quantify downscaling dataset differences, strengths, and weaknesses for practitioners.

Hartke, Samantha H. (ORCID:0000000202394723)↗

Global land use for 2015–2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios

Abstract Global future land use (LU) is an important input for Earth system models for projecting Earth system dynamics and is critical for many modeling studies on future global change. Here we generated a new global gridded LU dataset using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a land use spatial downscaling model, named Demeter, under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Compared to existing similar datasets, the presented dataset has a higher spatial resolution (0.05° × 0.05°) and spreads under a more comprehensive set of SSP-RCP scenarios (in total 15 scenarios), and considers uncertainties from the forcing climates. We compared our dataset with the Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) dataset and found our results are in general spatially consistent with LUH2. The presented dataset will be useful for global Earth system modeling studies, especially for the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover change and socioeconomics, as well as the characterizing the uncertainties associated with these impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Granger causal inference for climate change attribution

Abstract Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) is concerned with determining the extent to which anthropogenic activities have influenced specific aspects of the global climate system. D&A fits within the broader field of causal inference, the collection of statistical methods that identify cause and effect relationships. There are a wide variety of methods for making attribution statements, each of which require different types of input data and focus on different types of weather and climate events and each of which are conditional to varying extents. Some methods are based on Pearl causality (direct experimental interference) while others leverage Granger (predictive) causality, and the causal framing provides important context for how the resulting attribution conclusion should be interpreted. However, while Granger-causal attribution analyses have become more common, there is no clear statement of their strengths and weaknesses relative to Pearl-causal attribution and no clear consensus on where and when Granger-causal perspectives are appropriate. In this prospective paper, we provide a formal definition for Granger-based approaches to trend and event attribution and a clear comparison with more traditional methods for assessing the human influence on extreme weather and climate events. Broadly speaking, Granger-causal attribution statements can be constructed quickly from observations and do not require computationally-intesive dynamical experiments. These analyses also enable rapid attribution, which is useful in the aftermath of a severe weather event, and provide multiple lines of evidence for anthropogenic climate change when paired with Pearl-causal attribution. Confidence in attribution statements is increased when different methodologies arrive at similar conclusions. Moving forward, we encourage the D&A community to embrace hybrid approaches to climate change attribution that leverage the strengths of both Granger and Pearl causality.

Risser, Mark D. (ORCID:0000000319561783)↗

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

Putnam, WilliamM.↗

Vegetation browning: global drivers, impacts, and feedbacks

As global climate conditions continue to change, disturbance regimes and environmental drivers will continue to shift, impacting global vegetation dynamics. Following a period of vegetation greening, there has been a progressive increase in remotely sensed vegetation browning globally. Further, given the many societal benefits that forests provide, it is critical that we understand vegetation dynamic alterations. Here, we review associative drivers, impacts, and feedbacks, revealing the complexity of browning. Concomitant increases in browning include the weakening of ecosystem services and functions and alterations to vegetation structure and species composition as well as the development of potential positive climate change feedbacks. Also discussed are the current challenges in browning detection and understanding associated impacts and feedbacks. Finally, we outline recommended strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite Observation of El Nino Effects on Amazon Forest Phenology and Productivity

Climate variability may affect the functioning of Amazon moist tropical forests, and recent modeling analyses suggest that the carbon dynamics of the region vary interannually in response to precipitation and temperature anomalies. However, due to persistent orbital and atmospheric artifacts in the satellite record, remote sensing observations have not provided quantitative evidence that climate variation affects Amazon forest phenology or productivity, We developed a method to minimize and quantify non-biological artifacts in NOAA AVHRR satellite data, providing a record of estimated forest phenological variation from 1982-1993. The seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) amplitude (a proxy for phenology) increased throughout much of the basin during El Nino periods when rainfall was anomalously low. Wetter La Nina episodes brought consistently smaller NDVI amplitudes. Using radiative transfer and terrestrial biogeochemical models driven by these satellite data, we estimate that canopy-energy absorption and net primary production of Amazon forests varied interannually by as much as 21% and 18%, respectively. These results provide large-scale observational evidence for interannual sensitivity to El Nino of plant phenology and carbon flux in Amazon forests.

Asner, Gregory P.↗

Cellular fluidics

The natural world provides many examples of multiphase transport and reaction processes that have been optimized by evolution. These phenomena take place at multiple length and time scales and typically include gas–liquid–solid interfaces and capillary phenomena in porous media. Many biological and living systems have evolved to optimize fluidic transport. However, living things are exceptionally complex and very difficult to replicate, and human-made microfluidic devices (which are typically planar and enclosed) are highly limited for multiphase process engineering. In this paper, we introduce the concept of cellular fluidics: a platform of unit-cell-based, three-dimensional structures—enabled by emerging 3D printing methods—for the deterministic control of multiphase flow, transport and reaction processes. We show that flow in these structures can be ‘programmed’ through architected design of cell type, size and relative density. We demonstrate gas–liquid transport processes such as transpiration and absorption, using evaporative cooling and CO 2 capture as examples. We design and demonstrate preferential liquid and gas transport pathways in three-dimensional cellular fluidic devices with capillary-driven and actively pumped liquid flow, and present examples of selective metallization of pre-programmed patterns. Our results show that the design and fabrication of architected cellular materials, coupled with analytical and numerical predictions of steady-state and dynamic behaviour of multiphase interfaces, provide deterministic control of fluidic transport in three dimensions. Cellular fluidics may transform the design space for spatial and temporal control of multiphase transport and reaction processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗