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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The coronavirus spread: the Italian case

A model based on population growth, chaotic maps and turbulent flows is applied to the spread of Coronavirus for each Italian region in order to obtain useful information and help to contrast it. We divide the regions into different risk categories and discuss anomalies. The worst cases are confined between the Appenine and the Alps mountain ranges but the situation seem to improve closer to the sea. The Veneto region gave the most efficient response so far and some of their resources could be diverted to other regions, in particular more tests to the Lombardia, Liguria, Piemonte, Marche and V. Aosta regions, which seem to be worst affected. We noticed worrying anomalies in the Lazio, Campania and Sicilia regions to be monitored. We stress that the number of fatalities we predicted on March 12 has been confirmed daily by the bulletins. This suggests a change of strategy in order to reduce such number maybe moving the weaker population (and negative to the virus test) to beach resorts, which should be empty presently. The ratio deceased/positives on April 4, 2020 is 5.4% worldwide, 12.3% in Italy, 1.4% in Germany, 2.7% in the USA, 10.3% in the UK and 4.1% in China. Furthermore, these large fluctuations should be investigated starting from the Italian regions, which show similar large fluctuations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Fit Fly: A Case Study of Interconnect Innovation through Parallel Simulation

To meet the demand for exascale-level performance from high-performance computing (HPC) interconnects, many system architects are turning to simulation results for accurate and reliable predictions of the performance of prospective technologies. Testing full-scale networks with a variety of benchmarking tools, including synthetic workloads and application traces, can give crucial insight into what ideas are most promising without needing to physically construct a test network. While flexible, however, this approach is extremely compute time intensive. We address this time complexity challenge through the use of large-scale, optimistic parallel simulation that ultimately leads to faster HPC network architecture innovations. In this paper we demonstrate this innovation capability through a real-world network design case study. Specifically, we have simulated and compared four extreme-scale interconnects: Dragonfly, Megafly, Slim Fly, and a new dual-rail-dual-plane variation of the Slim Fly network topology. We present this new variant of Slim Fly, dubbed Fit Fly, to show how interconnect innovation and evaluation-beyond what is possible through analytic methods-can be achieved through parallel simulation. We validate and compare the model with various network designs using the CODES interconnect simulation framework. By running large-scale simulations in a parallel environment, we are able to quickly generate reliable performance results that can help network designers break ground on the next generation of high-performance network designs.

High Performance Computing↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Case For Intra-rack Resource Disaggregation in HPC

The expected halt of traditional technology scaling is motivating increased heterogeneity in high-performance computing (HPC) systems with the emergence of numerous specialized accelerators. As heterogeneity increases, so does the risk of underutilizing expensive hardware resources if we preserve today’s rigid node configuration and reservation strategies. This has sparked interest in resource disaggregation to enable finer-grain allocation of hardware resources to applications. However, there is currently no data-driven study of what range of disaggregation is appropriate in HPC. To that end, we perform a detailed analysis of key metrics sampled in NERSC’s Cori, a production HPC system that executes a diverse open-science HPC workload. In addition, we profile a variety of deep-learning applications to represent an emerging workload. We show that for a rack (cabinet) configuration and applications similar to Cori, a central processing unit with intra-rack disaggregation has a 99.5% probability to find all resources it requires inside its rack. In addition, ideal intra-rack resource disaggregation in Cori could reduce memory and NIC resources by 5.36% to 69.01% and still satisfy the worst-case average rack utilization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

MLIR loop optimizations for High-Level Synthesis: a case study

High-Level Synthesis (HLS) tools simplify the design of hardware accelerators by automatically generating Verilog/VHDL code starting from a general purpose software programming language. They include a wide range of optimization techniques in the process, most of them performed on a low-level intermediate representation (IR) of the code. Introducing optimizations on a higher level of abstraction could significantly contribute to the automated design process results; for example, polyhedral techniques for the manipulation of loops could have a significant impact on the generated accelerators when applied on a specialized IR. We use loop pipelining as a case study to explore the introduction of compiler-based transformations on top of an existing HLS process. We leverage the Multi-Level Intermediate Representation (MLIR) framework and an external scheduler to implement the required transformations, and couple them with existing HLS tools to evaluate the improvements that loop pipelining brings to the performance of generated accelerators. The proposed approach can be integrated with other high-level transformations on the MLIR representation, combining different techniques to obtain pre-optimized inputs for HLS that do not have to rely on a specific backend tool.

Curzel, Serena↗
DOE OSTI2023

FLASH: FPGA-Accelerated Smart Switches with GCN Case Study

Some communication switches, e.g., the Mellanox SHArP and those in the IBM BlueGene clusters, are augmented to process packets at the application level with fixed-function collectives. This approach, however, lacks flexibility, which limits their applicability in diverse and dynamic workloads. Recently, a new type of programmable packet processor, which uses high-level languages, e.g., P4, has emerged as possible candidates. P4-based switches, however, fall short in certain applications, including machine learning, where capabilities not currently supported by P4 are needed. These include more complex calculation, such as sparse computation and fused multiply-accumulate, data-intensive floating point operations, data reuse, and significant memory. The problem addressed here is that such a switch augmentation needs to support: a large amount of state, significant flexible compute capability, and ease of programming, all while maintaining full functionality, including ensuring high throughput, and demonstrating utility. In this work, we propose a programmable look-aside-type accelerator that can be embedded into, or attached to, existing communication switch pipelines and that is capable of processing packets at line-rate. The proposed in-switch accelerator is based on mixing an ISA (subset of RISC-V instructions) with dataflow graphs (found in CGRAs). To augment performance, vector instructions are also supported. To facilitate usability, we have developed a complete toolchain to compile user-provided C/C++ codes to appropriate back-end instructions for configuring the accelerator. While this approach is flexible enough to support various workloads, in this paper, we consider Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) as a case study. Experimental results show that this approach considerably improves the performance of distributed GCN applications.

Haghi, Pouya↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Stability of Transition Metal Nitrides in Aqueous Environments: The Case of Molybdenum, Iron, Vanadium and Nickel Nitride

Analysis of the MoN, Mo 2 N, VN, Fe 2 N, Fe 4 N, Ni 3 N stability in the aqueous media was performed based on the thermodynamic data available in HSC Chemistry software. Our analysis show that among all the studied nitrides, cubic Mo 2 N is the most resistant while cubic VN is the least resistant to oxidation and decomposition. The change in temperature up to 100 °C does not significantly influence the formation potentials of transition metal oxides from nitrides; however, pH significantly affects the stability of the studied transition metal nitrides. In the case of Mo 2 N, MoN, and VN changing pH from acidic to neutral and alkaline decreases the stability of the nitrides and the oxide formation potentials shift to more negative values. Additionally, based on thermodynamics, orthorhombic Fe 2 N should be stable only in alkaline conditions, while cubic Fe 4 N and hexagonal Ni 3 N should be the most stable at pH ~ 7 and pH ~ 9. Changing pH from these values decreases the stability of both Fe 4 N and Ni 3 N and the formation of oxy-, hydroxy- species becomes thermodynamically more favorable. Overall, the limited stability of the metal nitrides places severe constraints for their use in aqueous electrocatalytic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impedance Modeling for Mixed Conductors with Simultaneous Insertion & Electrocatalytic Reactions: A Case Study of Transition-Metal Hydroxides in Aqueous Electrolyte

Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is commonly used to investigate the kinetics of mixed ionic–electronic conductor (MIEC) electrodes. Across various applications, MIECs exhibit ionic (e.g., insertion) and/or electronic (e.g., electrocatalytic) charge transfer reactions at the electrode/electrolyte interface. Bulk storage and transport of charge carriers also couple with these interfacial reactions. Here, we build a generalized, physics-based impedance model for MIECs with an ion-blocking current collector and explore how bulk and interfacial resistance, chemical capacitance, and DC polarization affect the impedance response. Using transition metal hydroxides as a case study, we provide guidance on extracting reaction kinetics or bulk resistance from the Nyquist plots in interface- or bulk-controlled conditions, respectively. Generalizing our EIS analysis enables a robust analysis of MIEC kinetics for a diverse set of systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Outbreak analysis from case count and survey data

This code enables fitting a model of an infectious disease outbreak, customized for when available data is a combination of case counts and symptom survey responses. This is just a small bit of code being used only for a publication; we need to release it to fulfill a journal's requirement that our work be reproducible.

Goldberg, Emma↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Data assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Dynamics Preceding Summer Forest Fires in California and the Extreme Case of 2018

Recent record-breaking wildfire seasons in California prompt an investigation into the climate patterns that typically precede anomalous summer burned forest area. Using burned-area data from the U.S. Forest Service’s Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) product and climate data from the fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) over 1984–2018, relationships between the interannual variability of antecedent climate anomalies and July California burned area are spatially and temporally characterized. Lag correlations show that antecedent high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), high temperatures, frequent extreme high temperature days, low precipitation, high subsidence, high geopotential height, low soil moisture, and low snowpack and snowmelt anomalies all correlate significantly with July California burned area as far back as the January before the fire season. Seasonal regression maps indicate that a global midlatitude atmospheric wave train in late winter is associated with anomalous July California burned area. July 2018, a year with especially high burned area, was to some extent consistent with the general patterns revealed by the regressions: low winter precipitation and high spring VPD preceded the extreme burned area. However, geopotential height anomaly patterns were distinct from those in the regressions. Extreme July heat likely contributed to the extent of the fires ignited that month, even though extreme July temperatures do not historically significantly correlate with July burned area. While the 2018 antecedent climate conditions were typical of a high-burned-area year, they were not extreme, demonstrating the likely limits of statistical prediction of extreme fire seasons and the need for individual case studies of extreme years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of a Mixed Fleet of Aerial Drones for Medical Supplies: A Case Study of Blood Delivery Logistics

Aerial drones have emerged as an innovative solution for faster transportation of time-sensitive items (e.g., emergency medical supplies), potentially reducing the transmission of contagious diseases and enhancing healthcare availability through contactless autonomous delivery. We study fleet sizing and efficient scheduling of a mixed fleet of drones for delivering time-sensitive medical items having distinct release and due times to minimize the required fleet size and fleet composition, the required number of additional batteries, and the total energy consumption. We continuously track the remaining battery energy of drones to determine the optimal timing for battery replacement, rather than replacing the battery at each node. Using actual drone flight test data, we employed a machine learning (ML) method to estimate the energy consumption of different drone types during flight segments for different operating parameters. We present a novel mixed-integer programming model to efficiently formulate the problem that integrates the estimated energy consumption functions from ML. We propose a new greedy heuristic (GH) algorithm and a customized genetic algorithm (GA) for solving large-scale instances of this problem faster. Results demonstrate that the GH algorithm is substantially faster than the accelerated CPLEX and the GA, while sacrificing the solution quality by a small amount. Results based on an actual blood sample delivery case study from Pendleton, Oregon, United States, show that using a mixed fleet of drones reduces the total cost and total energy consumption up to 18.18% and 28.7%, respectively, compared to using a homogeneous fleet.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Individualized Survival Predictions From Random Survival Forests and Multistate Models in the Presence of Missing Data: A Case Study of Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer

Background: In recent years, interest in prognostic calculators for predicting patient health outcomes has grown with the popularity of personalized medicine. These calculators, which can inform treatment decisions, employ many different methods, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. Methods: We present a comparison of a multistate model (MSM) and a random survival forest (RSF) through a case study of prognostic predictions for patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. The MSM is highly structured and takes into account some aspects of the clinical context and knowledge about oropharyngeal cancer, while the RSF can be thought of as a black-box non-parametric approach. Key in this comparison are the high rate of missing values within these data and the different approaches used by the MSM and RSF to handle missingness. Results: We compare the accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of survival probabilities predicted by both approaches and use simulation studies to better understand how predictive accuracy is influenced by the approach to (1) handling missing data and (2) modeling structural/disease progression information present in the data. We conclude that both approaches have similar predictive accuracy, with a slight advantage going to the MSM. Conclusions: Although the MSM shows slightly better predictive ability than the RSF, consideration of other differences are key when selecting the best approach for addressing a specific research question. These key differences include the methods’ ability to incorporate domain knowledge, and their ability to handle missing data as well as their interpretability, and ease of implementation. Ultimately, selecting the statistical method that has the most potential to aid in clinical decisions requires thoughtful consideration of the specific goals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NANO.PTML model for read-across prediction of nanosystems in neurosciences. computational model and experimental case of study

Abstract Neurodegenerative diseases involve progressive neuronal death. Traditional treatments often struggle due to solubility, bioavailability, and crossing the Blood-Brain Barrier (BBB). Nanoparticles (NPs) in biomedical field are garnering growing attention as neurodegenerative disease drugs (NDDs) carrier to the central nervous system. Here, we introduced computational and experimental analysis. In the computational study, a specific IFPTML technique was used, which combined Information Fusion (IF) + Perturbation Theory (PT) + Machine Learning (ML) to select the most promising Nanoparticle Neuronal Disease Drug Delivery (N2D3) systems. For the application of IFPTML model in the nanoscience, NANO.PTML is used. IF-process was carried out between 4403 NDDs assays and 260 cytotoxicity NP assays conducting a dataset of 500,000 cases. The optimal IFPTML was the Decision Tree (DT) algorithm which shown satisfactory performance with specificity values of 96.4% and 96.2%, and sensitivity values of 79.3% and 75.7% in the training (375k/75%) and validation (125k/25%) set. Moreover, the DT model obtained Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) scores of 0.97 and 0.96 in the training and validation series, highlighting its effectiveness in classification tasks. In the experimental part, two samples of NPs (Fe 3 O 4 _A and Fe 3 O 4 _B) were synthesized by thermal decomposition of an iron(III) oleate (FeOl) precursor and structurally characterized by different methods. Additionally, in order to make the as-synthesized hydrophobic NPs (Fe 3 O 4 _A and Fe 3 O 4 _B) soluble in water the amphiphilic CTAB (Cetyl Trimethyl Ammonium Bromide) molecule was employed. Therefore, to conduct a study with a wider range of NP system variants, an experimental illustrative simulation experiment was performed using the IFPTML-DT model. For this, a set of 500,000 prediction dataset was created. The outcome of this experiment highlighted certain NANO.PTML systems as promising candidates for further investigation. The NANO.PTML approach holds potential to accelerate experimental investigations and offer initial insights into various NP and NDDs compounds, serving as an efficient alternative to time-consuming trial-and-error procedures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

3D vertical seismic profile acquired with distributed acoustic sensing on tubing installation: A case study from the CO2CRC Otway Project

Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) can revolutionize the seismic industry by using fiber-optic cables installed permanently to acquire on-demand vertical seismic profile (VSP) data at fine spatial sampling. With this, DAS can solve some of the issues associated with conventional seismic sensors. Studies have successfully demonstrated the use of DAS on cemented fibers for monitoring applications; however, such applications on tubing-deployed fibers are relatively uncommon. Application of tubing-deployed fibers is especially useful for preexisting wells, where there is no opportunity to install a fiber behind the casing. In the CO2CRC Otway Project, we acquired a 3D DAS VSP using a standard fiber-optic cable installed on the production tubing of the injector well. We aim to analyze the quality of the 3D DAS VSP on tubing, as well as discuss lessons learned from the current DAS deployment. We find the limitations associated with the DAS on tubing, as well as ways to improve the quality of the data sets for future surveys at Otway. Due to the reduced coupling and the long fiber length (approximately 20 km), the raw DAS records indicate a high level of noise relative to the signal. Despite the limitations, the migrated 3D DAS VSP data recorded by cable installed on tubing are able to image interfaces beyond the injection depth. Furthermore, we determine that the signal-to-noise ratio might be improved by reducing the fiber length.

3D↗
DOE OSTI2019

Integrated model construction for CO2-EOR monitoring via charged-wellbore casing controlled-source electromagnetics

We present a method for the integrated development of 3D electrical conductivity models for CO2-EOR monitoring with charged wellbore casing controlled-source electromagnetics (CWC-CSEM). The model is constructed through the multiphysics integration of reservoir simulation, seismic, borehole resistivity, and transient EM (TEM) data. The process is performed in two stages. First, a large background conductivity model is constructed from the combination of seismic, borehole, and TEM data. Second, a more detailed and dynamic component of the model is created within the production interval by converting the reservoir simulation parameters to conductivity through Archie’s equation. In this presentation, we demonstrate the complete workflow for building these 3D conductivity site models that can be updated throughout production using the Bell Creek oil field as an example. We then show application of the developed site model to simulating the predicted CWC-CSEM data as one step in the larger problem of reservoir imaging and monitoring of injected CO2 during enhanced oil recovery.

CO2, Sequestration, Monitoring, time-lapse, reserv↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Generalizable Evaluated Approach, Applying Advanced Geospatial Statistical Methods, to Identify High Lead Exposure Locations at Census Tract Scale: Michigan Case Study

BACKGROUND: Despite great progress in reducing environmental lead (Pb) levels, many children in the United States are still being exposed. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to develop a generalizable approach for systematically identifying, verifying, and analyzing locations with high prevalence of children’s elevated blood Pb levels (EBLLs) and to assess available Pb models/indices as surrogates, using a Michigan case study. METHODS: We obtained ~1:9 million BLL test results of children <6 years of age in Michigan from 2006–2016; we then evaluated them for data representativeness by comparing two percentage EBLL (%EBLL) rates (number of children tested with EBLL divided by both number of children tested and total population). We analyzed %EBLLs across census tracts over three time periods and between two EBLL reference values (≥5 vs. ≥10 μg/dL) to evaluate consistency. Locations with high %EBLLs were identified by a top 20 percentile method and a Getis-Ord Gi* geospatial cluster “hotspot” analysis. For the locations identified, we analyzed convergences with three available Pb exposure models/indices based on old housing and sociodemographics. RESULTS: Analyses of 2014–2016 %EBLL data identified 11 Michigan locations via cluster analysis and 80 additional locations via the top 20 percentile method and their associated census tracts. Data representativeness and consistency were supported by a 0.93 correlation coefficient between the two EBLL rates over 11 y, and a Kappa score of ~0:8 of %EBLL hotspots across the time periods (2014–2016) and reference values. Many EBLL hotspot locations converge with current Pb exposure models/indices; others diverge, suggesting additional Pb sources for targeted interventions. DISCUSSION: This analysis confirmed known Pb hotspot locations and revealed new ones at a finer geographic resolution than previously available, using advanced geospatial statistical methods and mapping/visualization. It also assessed the utility of surrogates in the absence of blood Pb data. This approach could be applied to other states to inform Pb mitigation and prevention efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9705

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) Framework: Synthesis, Foundational Overview, and Expert Case Studies

Land resources are central to understanding the relationship between humans and their environment. We broadly define a land resource to include all the ecological resources of climate, water, soil, landforms, flora, and fauna, and all the socioeconomic systems that interact with agriculture, forestry, and other land uses within some system boundary. Understanding the vulnerability of land resources to changes in land management or climate forcing is critical to developing sustainable land management strategies. Vulnerability assessments are complex given the multiple uses of the assessments, the multi-disciplinary nature of the problem, limited understanding, the dynamic structure of vulnerability, scale issues, and problems with identifying effective vulnerability indicators. Here, we propose a novel conceptual framework for vulnerability assessments of land resources that combines the driver– pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) framework adopted by the European Environment Agency to describe interactions between society and the environment, and the exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity (ESA) framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess impacts of climate change. The DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) framework operationalizes the process of assessing the vulnerability of a target system to external stressors. The DEVA framework includes the following elements: 1) Definition of the target system (Land resource), 2) Description of internal characteristics of the target system (State), 3) Description of target system vulnerability indicators (Adaptive capacity, Sensitivity), 4) Description of stressor characteristics (Drivers, Pressures), 5) Description of stressor vulnerability indicators (Exposure), 6) Description of target system response to stressors (Impacts), and 7) Description of modifications to target systems or stressors (Responses). In stating that they have “applied the DEVA framework”, analysts acknowledge that they have (a) considered the full breadth of each DEVA element, (b) have made conscious decisions to limit the scope and complexity of certain elements, and (c) can communicate both the rationale for these decisions and the impact of these decisions on the vulnerability assessment results and recommendations. The DEVA framework was refined during invited presentations and follow-up discussions from a series of Special Sessions with leading experts at two successive ASABE Annual International Meetings. Six case studies drawn from the sessions elaborate upon the DEVA framework and provide concrete examples of the key concepts. The DEVA approach gives engineers, planners, and analysts a new, flexible framework to apply a broad array of useful tools toward assessment of land resource system vulnerability.

Anandhi, Aauvadi↗