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At least 991 records · Page 55

Application of emerging monitoring techniques at the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project

The Illinois Basin – Decatur Project is a large-scale carbon capture and storage demonstration project located in Decatur, Illinois, USA. In this project, one million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) was captured from an ethanol production facility and successfully injected into a deep saline reservoir over a period of three years. The scale of this project presented an opportunity to explore emerging technologies for effective long-term monitoring of the carbon capture and storage site. This research documents the application of three emerging monitoring techniques: (1) a prototype “open-path” sensor, a method of continuously monitoring atmospheric CO 2 by applying tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy to provide a warning system for personnel safety along pipelines and at wellheads; (2) the Greenhouse Gas Laser Imaging Tomography Experiment (GreenLITE), an automated system for measuring two-dimensional spatial distribution of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations; and (3) periodic aerial imagery, a method of documenting surface-vegetation dynamics to detect vegetative responses to CO 2 leaks. The objective of this work was to assess the advantages and limitations of these monitoring techniques and quantify their reliability over an extended deployment at an active industrial site. These results will aid in determining viability of long-term monitoring on a commercial scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic modeling studies of basin-scale pressure interference and CO 2 plume evolution in multi-well geologic CO 2 storage

This research employs numerical modeling to analyze how CO 2 plumes and pressure fronts evolve when CO 2 is injected into a single storage formation from multiple projects located in proximity. Here, this analysis also evaluates the extent to which injection well spacing alleviates pressure buildup in the absence of active pressure management tactics. The simulation approach was based on a single, homogenous saline aquifer in which CO 2 injection occurs under a one-injector baseline case and several multi-well cases where well spacing varies. Analysis results show that the extent of pressure buildup is in the range of tens or a few hundreds of kilometers and contingent upon the defining pressure buildup demarcating the front edge. For the geological setting evaluated in this paper, our analysis suggests that without active basin pressure management strategies, commercial-scale projects would likely need to be sited far apart to avoid pressure interference from one another. Analysis results show the radius of CO 2 plume varies approximately from 2 to 3 km from injection wells (each injecting 1 Mt/year for 30 years) depending on cases and modeling parameters assumed. Given the pressure interference, this paper thus draws attention to the importance of greater coordination among storage operators and regulatory stakeholders. Because this analysis assumes a very specific geologic setting, this exploratory analysis bears further investigations across other geologic scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impacts of Climate Change and Vegetation Dynamics on Runoff in the Mountainous Region of the Haihe River Basin in the Past Five Decades

Climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration have changed significantly in the mountainous region of the Haihe River basin over the past five decades. In the study, a process-based terrestrial model, version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4), was used to quantify the spatiotemporal changes in runoff over the region, driven by the varying climate factors and CO2 concentration. Overall, our simulations suggest that climate-induced change in runoff in this region show a decreasing trend since 1960. Changes in precipitation, solar radiation, air temperature, and wind speed accounts for 56%, -14%, 13%, -5% of the overall decrease in annual runoff, respectively, but their relative contributions vary across the study area. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration was found to have limited impacts on runoff. Significant decrease in runoff over the southern and northeastern portion of the region is primarily attributed to decreasing precipitation, while decreasing solar radiation and increasing air temperature are the main causes of slight runoff increase in the northern portion. Our results also suggest that the magnitude of decreasing trend could be greatly underestimated if the dynamical interactions of vegetation phenology with the environmental factors are not considered in the modeling, highlighting the importance of including dynamic vegetation phenology in the prediction of runoff in this region.

basin↗

Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin – Review and new results from observations and climate simulations

Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962–2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979–2001, with higher frequency in the south.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Factors controlling pore network development of thermally mature Early Palaeozoic mudstones from the Baltic Basin (N Poland)

Understanding the formation of pore space, especially in low porosity shales (as source rocks and as unconventional resources), is critical to the oil and gas industry, since pores control the space available for hydrocarbon and participate in hydrocarbon transport. We examined 87 Ordovician and Silurian mudstone samples collected from four wells located in the Pomeranian part of the Baltic Basin (northern Poland), one of the primary Polish targets for hydrocarbon exploration. These samples represent the Pelplin, the Paslek, the Jantar, the Prabuty, and the Sasino Formations, which still requires more detailed porosity studies. Our study aimed to identify factors controlling porosity development, by applying bulk techniques (organic petrology and TOC analyses, quantitative mineralogy, and porosimetry) as well as nano- to microscale techniques (thin section petrography, electron microscopy). The studied samples are mainly argillaceous mudstones. The results of porosimetry measurements, combined with image analysis, indicate that the pores of all studied rocks are dominated by micropores (pores < 2 nm in diameter), mesopores (2-50 nm in diameter) and small macropores. The SEM images showed three main pore types: a) voids related to clay mineral aggregates, b) pores inside organic matter particles, and c) pores between other mineral grains. In the Jantar and Sasino mudstones, the organic matter content and its thermal maturity control porosity. The occurrence of solid bitumen in the rocks from these formations reduces samples’ mesoporosity because of the pore-clogging effect. In contrast, in the Paslek and Prabuty Formations, there is low organic matter content and specific surface area and the volume of mesopores increase with clay minerals content. In the Pelplin mudstones, there are no prevailing factors controlling porosity. As a result, we suggest that a combination of SEM image analysis and dual liquid porosity (DLP) measurements is a powerful method to assess porosity available for petroleum flow in mudstones.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

System response to gas production from a heterogeneous hydrate accumulation at the UBGH2-6 site of the Ulleung basin in the Korean East Sea

In this work, we investigate the feasibility of production from a layered marine gas hydrate reservoir using the properties and conditions corresponding to the UBGH2-6 site of the Ulleung Basin in the Korean East Sea. The work expands and furthers previous investigations in support of a proposed field test. The target system is location in deep water and consists of 13 m of alternating hydrate-bearing sand and soft mud layers and will be produced using a vertical well. We assess production potential during a 14-day field test, examine sensitivity to heterogeneity in permeability, porosity, and initial hydrate saturation, and assess the geomechanical response of the system to short-term production. Producing gas from the system appears to be technically feasible, however, low production rates and relatively large water production rates are expected during the field test. Expected subsidence and reservoir compaction is limited given the current data and the short timeframes of the production test.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Understanding controls on redox processes in floodplain sediments of the Upper Colorado River Basin

Floodplains, heavily used for water supplies, housing, agriculture, mining, and industry, are important repositories of organic carbon, nutrients, and metal contaminants. The accumulation and release of these species is often mediated by redox processes. By understanding the physicochemical, hydrological, and biogeochemical controls on the distribution and variability of sediment redox conditions we can develop conceptual and numerical models of contaminant transport within floodplains. The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is impacted by former uranium and vanadium ore processing, resulting in contamination by V, Cr, Mn, As, Se, Mo and U. Previous authors have suggested that sediment redox activity occurring within organic carbon-enriched bodies located below the groundwater level may be regionally important to the maintenance and release of contaminant inventories, particularly uranium. To help assess this hypothesis, vertical distributions of Fe and S redox states and sulfide mineralogy were assessed in sediment cores from three floodplain sites spanning a 250 km transect of the central UCRB. Our results support the hypothesis that organic-enriched reduced sediments are important zones of biogeochemical activity within UCRB floodplains. Furthermore, we found that the presence of organic carbon, together with pore saturation, are the key requirements for maintaining reducing conditions, which were dominated by sulfate-reduction products. Sediment texture was found to be of secondary importance and to moderate the response of the system to external forcing, such as oxidant diffusion. Consequently, fine-grain sediments are relatively resistant to oxidation in comparison to coarser-grained sediments. Exposure to oxidants consumes precipitated sulfides, with a disproportionate loss of mackinawite (FeS) as compared to the more stable pyrite. The accompanying loss of redox buffering capacity creates the potential for release of sequestered radionuclides and metals. Because of their redox reactivity and stores of metals, C, and N, organic-enriched sediments are likely to be important to nutrient and contaminant mobility within UCRB floodplain aquifers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing Drought Behavior in the Colorado River Basin Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Drought is a pressing issue for the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the social and economic value of water resources in the region and the significant uncertainty of future drought under climate change. Here, we use climate simulations from various Earth System Models (ESMs) to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model and project multiple drought indicators for the sub-watersheds within the CRB. We apply an unsupervised machine learning (ML) based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization using K-means clustering (NMFk) to synthesize the simulated historical, future, and change in drought indicators. The unsupervised ML approach can identify sub-watersheds where key changes to drought indicator behavior occur, including shifts in snowpack, snowmelt timing, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. While changes in future precipitation vary across ESMs, the results indicate that the Upper CRB will experience increasing evaporative demand and surface-water scarcity, with some locations experiencing a shift from a radiation-limited to a water-limited evaporation regime in the summer. Large shifts in peak runoff are observed in snowmelt-dominant sub-watersheds, with complete disappearance of the snowmelt signal for some sub-watersheds. The work demonstrates the utility of the NMFk algorithm to efficiently identify behavioral changes of drought indicators across space and time and to quickly analyze and interpret hydro climate model results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Salinity Under Transitioning Ice Cover in the Canada Basin: Climate Model Biases Linked to Vertical Distribution of Fresh Water

Abstract The Canada Basin has exhibited a significant trend toward a fresher surface layer and thus a more stratified upper‐ocean over the past three decades. State‐of‐the‐art ice‐ocean models, by contrast, tend to simulate a surface layer that is saltier and less stratified than observed. Here, we examine decadal changes to seasonal processes that may contribute to this wide‐reaching model bias using climate model simulations from the Community Earth System Model and below‐ice observations from the Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment in 1975 and Ice Tethered Profilers in 2006–2012. In contrast to the observations, the models simulate salinity profiles that show relatively little variation between 1975 and 2012. We demonstrate that this bias can be mainly attributed to unrealistically deep vertical mixing in the model, creating a surface layer that is saltier than observed. The results provide insight for climate model improvement with broad implications for Arctic sea ice and ecosystem dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Coupled Hydromechanical Modeling of Induced Seismicity From CO 2 Injection in the Illinois Basin

Injection of CO 2 for geologic carbon sequestration into deep sedimentary formations involves fluid pressure increases that engage hydromechanical processes that can cause seismicity by activation of existing faults. In this work, we use a coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulator to model spatiotemporal fluid pressure and stress changes in order to study the poroelastic effect of CO 2 injection on faults in crystalline basement rock below the injection zone. The seismicity rate along features interpreted to be basement faults is modeled using Dieterich's rate-and-state earthquake nucleation model. The methodology is applied to microseismicity detected during CO 2 injection into the Mount Simon formation during the Illinois Basin—Decatur Project. The modeling accurately captures an observed reduction in seismicity rate when the injection in the second well was into a slightly shallower zone above the base of the Mount Simon formation. Moreover, the modeling shows that it is important to consider poroelastic stress changes, in addition to fluid pressure changes for accurately modeling of the observed seismicity rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seasonality and Albedo Dependence of Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Mountains create and enhance their own clouds, which both scatter and absorb shortwave radiation from the sun and absorb and re-emit land surface and atmospheric longwave radiation. However, the impacts of clouds on the surface radiation balance in high elevation snowy mountain terrain are poorly explored. In this study, we use data collected by the SAIL field campaign and partner organizations in the upper elevations (2,880 m.a.s.l) of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) over a 21-month period from September 2021 to June 2023 to estimate Cloud Radiative Forcing (CRF) in the shortwave, longwave, and the net effect. Longwave warming effects dominate during the winter when snow albedos are high (0.8–0.9) and the background atmospheric precipitable water vapor is low (<0.5 cm), yielding a maximum monthly average net CRF of +34.7 W·m -2 , meaning that clouds increase the net radiation relative to clear skies during this time period. The sign of net CRF switches in the warm season as snow recedes, sun-angles increase, and the North American monsoon arrives, yielding a minimum monthly average net CRF of -47.6 W·m -2 with hourly minima of -600 W·m -2 . The sign of net CRF is typically positive, even at solar noon, when the surface is snow covered, except for a brief period over melting, low-albedo snow (0.5–0.6) impacted by dust impurities. Sensitivity tests elucidate the role of the surface albedo on the net CRF. The results suggest that net CRF will increase in magnitude and lead to a more persistent cooling effect on the surface net radiation budget as the snow cover declines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrologic and water quality responses to biomass production in the Tennessee river basin

Abstract Reducing dependence on fossil‐based energy has raised interest in biofuels as a potential energy source, but concerns have been raised about potential implications for water quality. These effects may vary regionally depending on the biomass feedstocks and changes in land management. Here, we focused on the Tennessee River Basin ( TRB ), USA . According to the recent 2016 Billion‐Ton Report ( BT 16) by the US Department of Energy, under two future scenarios (base‐case and high‐yield), three perennial feedstocks show high potential for growing profitably in the TRB : switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ), miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ), and willow ( Salix spp.). We used the Soil & Water Assessment Tool ( SWAT ) to compare hydrology and water quality for a current landscape with those simulated for two future BT 16 landscapes. We combined publicly available temporal and geospatial datasets with local land and water management information to realistically represent physical characteristics of the watershed. We developed a new autocalibration tool ( SWAT opt) to calibrate and evaluate SWAT in the TRB with reservoir operations, including comparison against synthetic and intermediate response variables derived from gage measurements. Our spatiotemporal evaluation enables to more realistically simulate the current situation, which gives us more confidence to project the effects of land‐use changes on water quality. Under both future BT 16 scenarios, simulated nitrate and total nitrogen loadings and concentrations were greatly reduced relative to the current landscape, whereas runoff, sediment, and phosphorus showed only small changes. Difference between simulated water results for the two future scenarios was small. The influence of biomass production on water quantity and quality depended on the crop, area planted, and management practices, as well as on site‐specific characteristics. These results offer hope that bioenergy production in the TRB could help to protect the region's rivers from nitrogen pollution by providing a market for perennial crops with low nutrient input requirements.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Community structure – Ecosystem function relationships in the Congo Basin methane cycle depend on the physiological scale of function

Belowground ecosystem processes can be highly variable and difficult to predict using microbial community data. Here, we argue that this stems from at least three issues: (a) complex covariance structure of samples (with environmental conditions or spatial proximity) can make distinguishing biotic drivers a challenge; (b) communities can control ecosystem processes through multiple mechanisms, making the identification of these controls a challenge; and (c) ecosystem function assessments can be broad in physiological scale, encapsulating multiple processes with unique microbially mediated controls. In this work, we test these assertions using methane (CH 4 )-cycling processes in soil samples collected along a wetland-to-upland habitat gradient in the Congo Basin. We perform our measurements of function under controlled laboratory conditions and statistically control for environmental covariates to aid in identifying biotic drivers. We divide measurements of microbial communities into four attributes (abundance, activity, composition, and diversity) that represent different forms of community control. Lastly, our process measurements differ in physiological scale, including broader processes (gross methanogenesis and methanotrophy) that involve more mediating groups, to finer processes (hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and high-affinity CH 4 oxidation) with fewer mediating groups. We observed that finer scale processes can be more readily predicted from microbial community structure than broader scale processes. In addition, the nature of those relationships differed, with broad processes limited by abundance while fine-scale processes were associated with diversity and composition. These findings demonstrate the importance of carefully defining the physiological scale of ecosystem function and performing community measurements that represent the range of possible controls on ecosystem processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structural Inventory of Great Basin Geothermal Systems and Definition of Favorable Structural Settings

Structural controls of 426 geothermal systems in the Great Basin region including western Nevada, central Nevada, northwestern Nevada, northeastern Nevada, east-central Nevada, eastern California, southern Oregon, and western Utah were analyzed with literature research, air photos, Google Earth imagery, and/or field reviews. Of the systems analyzed, we were able to determine the structural settings of more than 240 sites. The structural catalogue is stored in a master spreadsheet included in this submission. Data components include structural setting, primary fault orientation, presence or absence of Quaternary faulting, reservoir lithology, geothermometry, presence or absence of recent magmatism, and distinguishing blind systems from those that have surface expressions. Systems were cataloged into the following eight major groups, based on the dominant pattern of faulting: - Major normal fault segments (i.e., near displacement maxima). - Fault bends. - Fault terminations or tips. - Step-overs or relay ramps in normal faults. - Fault intersections. - Accommodation zones (i.e., belts of intermeshing oppositely dipping normal faults), - Displacement transfer zones whereby strike-slip faults terminate in arrays of normal faults. - Transtensional pull-aparts. These settings form a hierarchal pattern with respect to fault complexity. - Major normal faults and fault bends are the simplest. - Fault terminations are typically more complex than mid-segments, as faults commonly break up into multiple strands or horsetail near their ends. - A fault intersection is generally more complex, as it generally contains both multiple fault strands and can include discrete dilational quadrants. - A step-over consists of two overlapping fault terminations and thus involves additional complexity, especially where the relay ramp is breached by multiple fault splays between the main overlapping faults and thus contains multiple fault intersections. - Accommodation zones involve further complexity, as they contain multiple fault terminations and fault intersections.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Geologic Reservoir Content Model from Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin

This dataset contains the known hydrocarbon reservoirs within the study area of the Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB) as part of Phase 1, Natural Reservoirs Quality Analysis. The final values for Reservoir Productivity Index (RPI) and uncertainty (in terms of coefficient of variation, CV) are included. RPI is in units of liters per MegaPascal-second (L/MPa-s), quantified using permeability, thickness of formation, and depth. A higher RPI is more optimal. Coefficient of Variation (CV) is the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean RPI for each reservoir. A lower CV is more optimal. Details on these metrics can be found in the Reservoirs_Methodology_Memo.pdf uploaded in the associated "Natural Reservoir Analysis" dataset linked below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Utilization Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB)

This submission of Utilization Analysis data to the Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) node of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS) is in support of Phase 1 Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin. The submission includes data pertinent to the methods and results of an analysis of the Surface Levelized Cost of Heat (SLCOH) for US Census Bureau Places within the study area. This was calculated using a modification of a program called GEOPHIRES, available at http://koenraadbeckers.net/geophires/index.php. The MATLAB modules used in conjunction with GEOPHIRES, the MATLAB data input file, the GEOPHIRES output data file, and an explanation of the software components have been provided. Results of the SLCOH analysis appear on 4 .png image files as mapped risk of heat utilization. For each of the 4 image (.png) files, there is an accompanying georeferenced TIF (.tif) file by the same name. In addition to calculating SLCOH, this Task 4 also identified many sites that may be prospects for use of a geothermal district heating system, based on their size and industry, rather than on the SLCOH. An industry sorted listing of the sites (.xlsx) and a map of these sites plotted as a layer onto different iterations of maps combining the three geological risk factors (Thermal Quality, Natural Reservoir Quality, and Risk of Seismicity) has been provided. In addition to the 6 image (.png) files of the maps in this series, a shape (.shp) file and 7 associated files are included as well. Finally, supporting files (.pdf) describing the utilization analysis methodology and summarizing the anticipated permitting for a deep district heating system are supplied. UPDATE: Newer version of the Utilization Analysis has been added here: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/878

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Tularosa Basin Play Fairway Analysis: Methodology Flow Charts

These images show the comprehensive methodology used for creation of a Play Fairway Analysis to explore the geothermal resource potential of the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. The deterministic methodology was originated by the petroleum industry, but was custom-modified to function as a knowledge-based geothermal exploration tool. The stochastic PFA flow chart uses weights of evidence, and is data-driven.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗