Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “balance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Elevated Temperature Effects on Protein Turnover Dynamics in Arabidopsis thaliana Seedlings Revealed by 15 N-Stable Isotope Labeling and ProteinTurnover Algorithm

Global warming poses a threat to plant survival, impacting growth and agricultural yield. Protein turnover, a critical regulatory mechanism balancing protein synthesis and degradation, is crucial for the cellular response to environmental changes. We investigated the effects of elevated temperature on proteome dynamics in Arabidopsis thaliana seedlings using 15 N-stable isotope labeling and ultra-performance liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry, coupled with the ProteinTurnover algorithm. Analyzing different cellular fractions from plants grown under 22 °C and 30 °C growth conditions, we found significant changes in the turnover rates of 571 proteins, with a median 1.4-fold increase, indicating accelerated protein dynamics under thermal stress. Notably, soluble root fraction proteins exhibited smaller turnover changes, suggesting tissue-specific adaptations. Significant turnover alterations occurred with redox signaling, stress response, protein folding, secondary metabolism, and photorespiration, indicating complex responses enhancing plant thermal resilience. Conversely, proteins involved in carbohydrate metabolism and mitochondrial ATP synthesis showed minimal changes, highlighting their stability. This analysis highlights the intricate balance between proteome stability and adaptability, advancing our understanding of plant responses to heat stress and supporting the development of improved thermotolerant crops.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Mechanical Performance of Composites Fabricated Using Innovative Carbon Fiber Wet Laid Process

Recent innovation in production of optimized nonwoven wet laid (WL) carbon fiber (CF) mats raised the question of optimal translation of the performance and isotropy into composites formed through these dry preforms. This work explores the mechanical behavior of composites produced from WL-CF mats in conjunction with the microstructure predicted through Object Oriented Finite Element Analysis (OOF). The mats used for the composites were prepared in two dispersion regimes using 25.4 mm long CF. The mixing regimes discussed in the author’s previous work, are identified as Method 1 for the traditional processing regime and Method 2 for the innovative regime that provided optimal nonwoven WL-CF mats. Composite panels from Method 2 mats showed a normalized tensile strength increase of 52% over those from Method 1 panels. Reproducibility analysis of composites made from Method 2 mats demonstrated a standard deviation of 2% in fiber weight content, 2% in tensile modulus and 9% in tensile strength, while composites made from Method 1 mats demonstrated a standard deviation of 5% in fiber weight content, 5% in tensile modulus and 17% in tensile strength. Systematic study of the microstructure and its analysis through OOF confirmed the isotropy translation of mats produced through method 2 to the composites. This study validated the hypothesis that optimal nonwoven mats lead to a well-balanced composite with optimal performance and that non-optimal nonwoven mats do not pack into a well-balanced composite.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emiliania huxleyi —Bacteria Interactions under Increasing CO 2 Concentrations

The interactions established between marine microbes, namely phytoplankton–bacteria, are key to the balance of organic matter export to depth and recycling in the surface ocean. Still, their role in the response of phytoplankton to rising CO 2 concentrations is poorly understood. Here, we show that the response of the cosmopolitan Emiliania huxleyi (E. huxleyi) to increasing CO 2 is affected by the coexistence with bacteria. Specifically, decreased growth rate of E. huxleyi at enhanced CO 2 concentrations was amplified in the bloom phase (potentially also related to nutrient concentrations) and with the coexistence with Idiomarina abyssalis (I. abyssalis) and Brachybacterium sp. In addition, enhanced CO 2 concentrations also affected E. huxleyi’s cellular content estimates, increasing organic and decreasing inorganic carbon, in the presence of I. abyssalis, but not Brachybacterium sp. At the same time, the bacterial isolates only survived in coexistence with E. huxleyi, but exclusively I. abyssalis at present CO 2 concentrations. Bacterial species or group-specific responses to the projected CO 2 rise, together with the concomitant effect on E. huxleyi, might impact the balance between the microbial loop and the export of organic matter, with consequences for atmospheric carbon dioxide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

As a Matter of State: The Role of Thermodynamics in Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence

Turbulence simulations play a key role in advancing the general understanding of the physical properties of turbulence and in interpreting astrophysical observations of turbulent plasmas. For the sake of simplicity, however, turbulence simulations are often conducted in the isothermal limit. Given that the majority of astrophysical systems are not governed by isothermal dynamics, we aim to quantify the impact of thermodynamics on the physics of turbulence, through varying adiabatic index, γ, combined with a range of optically thin cooling functions. Here, we present a suite of ideal magnetohydrodynamics simulations of thermally balanced stationary turbulence in the subsonic, super-Alfvénic, high ${\beta }_{{\rm{p}}}$ (ratio of thermal to magnetic pressure) regime, where turbulent dissipation is balanced by two idealized cooling functions (approximating linear cooling and free–free emission) and examine the impact of the equation of state by considering cases that correspond to isothermal, monatomic, and diatomic gases. We find a strong anticorrelation between thermal and magnetic pressure independent of thermodynamics, whereas the strong anticorrelation between density and magnetic field found in the isothermal case weakens with increasing γ. Similarly, the linear relation between variations in density and thermal pressure with sonic Mach number becomes steeper with increasing γ. This suggests that there exists a degeneracy in these relations with respect to thermodynamics and Mach number in this regime, which is dominated by slow magnetosonic modes. These results have implications for attempts to infer (e.g.,) Mach numbers from (e.g.,) Faraday rotation measurements, without additional information regarding the thermodynamics of the plasma. However, our results suggest that this degeneracy can be broken by utilizing higher-order moments of observable distribution functions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential Vorticity Mixing in a Tangled Magnetic Field

A theory of potential vorticity (PV) mixing in a disordered (tangled) magnetic field is introduced. The analysis is in the context of β -plane MHD, with a special focus on the physics of momentum transport in the stably stratified, quasi-2D solar tachocline. A physical picture of mean PV evolution by vorticity advection and tilting of magnetic fields is proposed. In the case of weak field perturbations, quasi-linear theory predicts that the Reynolds and magnetic stresses balance as turbulence Alfvénizes for a larger mean magnetic field. Jet formation is explored quantitatively in the mean field–resistivity parameter space. However, since even a modest mean magnetic field leads to large magnetic perturbations for large magnetic Reynolds number, the physically relevant case is that of a strong but disordered field. We show that numerical calculations indicate that the Reynolds stress is modified well before Alfvénization—i.e., before fluid and magnetic energies balance. To understand these trends, a double-average model of PV mixing in a stochastic magnetic field is developed. Calculations indicate that mean-square fields strongly modify Reynolds stress phase coherence and also induce a magnetic drag on zonal flows. The physics of transport reduction by tangled fields is elucidated and linked to the related quench of turbulent resistivity. We propose here a physical picture of the system as a resisto-elastic medium threaded by a tangled magnetic network. Applications of the theory to momentum transport in the tachocline and other systems are discussed in detail.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic Simulations of Instabilities and Particle Acceleration in Cylindrical Magnetized Relativistic Jets

Relativistic magnetized jets, such as those from AGN, GRBs, and XRBs, are susceptible to current- and pressure-driven MHD instabilities that can lead to particle acceleration and nonthermal radiation. Here, we investigate the development of these instabilities through 3D kinetic simulations of cylindrically symmetric equilibria involving toroidal magnetic fields with electron–positron pair plasma. Generalizing recent treatments by Alves et al. and Davelaar et al., we consider a range of initial structures in which the force due to toroidal magnetic field is balanced by a combination of forces due to axial magnetic field and gas pressure. We argue that the particle energy limit identified by Alves et al. is due to the finite duration of the fast magnetic dissipation phase. We find a rather minor role of electric fields parallel to the local magnetic fields in particle acceleration. In all investigated cases, a kink mode arises in the central core region with a growth timescale consistent with the predictions of linearized MHD models. In the case of a gas-pressure-balanced (Z-pinch) profile, we identify a weak local pinch mode well outside the jet core. We argue that pressure-driven modes are important for relativistic jets, in regions where sufficient gas pressure is produced by other dissipation mechanisms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Turbulent Regimes in Collisions of 3D Alfvén-wave Packets

Using three-dimensional gyrofluid simulations, we revisit the problem of Alfvén-wave (AW) collisions as building blocks of the Alfvénic turbulent cascade and their interplay with magnetic reconnection at magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) scales. Depending on the large-scale value of the nonlinearity parameter χ 0 (the ratio between the AW linear propagation time and nonlinear turnover time), different regimes are observed. For strong nonlinearities (χ 0 ~ 1), turbulence is consistent with a dynamically aligned, critically balanced cascade—fluctuations exhibit a scale-dependent alignment $\sin {\theta }_{{k}_{\perp }}\propto {k}_{\perp }^{-1/4}$, resulting in a ${k}_{\perp }^{-3/2}$ spectrum and ${k}_{\parallel }\propto {k}_{\perp }^{1/2}$ spectral anisotropy. At weaker nonlinearities (small χ 0 ), a spectral break marking the transition between a large-scale weak regime and a small-scale ${k}_{\perp }^{-11/5}$ tearing-mediated range emerges, implying that dynamic alignment occurs also for weak nonlinearities. At χ 0 < 1 the alignment angle ${\theta }_{{k}_{\perp }}$ shows a stronger scale dependence than in the χ 0 ~ 1 regime, namely $\sin {\theta }_{{k}_{\perp }}\propto {k}_{\perp }^{-1/2}$ at χ 0 ~ 0.5, and $\sin {\theta }_{{k}_{\perp }}\propto {k}_{\perp }^{-1}$ at χ 0 ~ 0.1. Dynamic alignment in the weak regime also modifies the large-scale spectrum, scaling approximately as ${k}_{\perp }^{-3/2}$ for χ 0 ~ 0.5 and as ${k}_{\perp }^{-1}$ for χ 0 ~ 0.1. A phenomenological theory of dynamically aligned turbulence at weak nonlinearities that can explain these spectra and the transition to the tearing-mediated regime is provided; at small χ 0 , the strong scale dependence of the alignment angle combines with the increased lifetime of turbulent eddies to allow tearing to onset and mediate the cascade at scales that can be larger than those predicted for a critically balanced cascade by several orders of magnitude. Such a transition to tearing-mediated turbulence may even supplant the usual weak-to-strong transition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Figuring Out Gas & Galaxies in Enzo (FOGGIE). VI. The Circumgalactic Medium of L * Galaxies Is Supported in an Emergent, Nonhydrostatic Equilibrium

The circumgalactic medium (CGM) is often assumed to exist in or near hydrostatic equilibrium, with the regulation of accretion and the effects of feedback treated as perturbations to a stable balance between gravity and thermal pressure. We investigate global hydrostatic equilibrium in the CGM using four highly resolved L* galaxies from the Figuring Out Gas & Galaxies in Enzo (FOGGIE) project. The FOGGIE simulations were specifically targeted at fine spatial and mass resolution in the CGM (Δx ≲ 1 kpc h –1 and M ≃ 200M ⊙ ). We develop a new analysis framework that calculates the forces provided by thermal pressure gradients, turbulent pressure gradients, ram pressure gradients of large-scale radial bulk flows, centrifugal rotation, and gravity acting on the gas in the CGM. Thermal and turbulent pressure gradients vary strongly on scales of ≲5 kpc throughout the CGM. Thermal pressure gradients provide the main supporting force only beyond ~0.25R 200 , or ~50 kpc at z = 0. Within ~0.25R 200 , turbulent pressure gradients and rotational support provide stronger forces than thermal pressure. More generally, we find that global equilibrium models are neither appropriate nor predictive for the small scales probed by absorption line observations of the CGM. Local conditions generally cannot be derived by assuming a global equilibrium, but an emergent global equilibrium balancing radially inward and outward forces is obtained when averaging over the nonequilibrium local conditions on large scales in space and time. Approximate hydrostatic equilibrium holds only at large distances from galaxies, even when averaging out small-scale variations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies

Because natural gas emits less carbon than other fossil fuels, it holds promise as a green energy transition fuel. However, the overall carbon footprint of natural gas is significantly elevated by methane emissions that occur during its production and transmission (Cusworth et al. 2022). Methane “super-emitters,” while comprising only about 1% of sites, are responsible for the majority of oil- and gas-sourced methane emissions, making their detection and mitigation critical in reducing the climate impact of natural gas and in meeting national and global sustainability goals (Sherwin et al. 2024). Yet, despite advancements in detection, significant uncertainties remain regarding the size, frequency, and duration distributions of methane emissions (e.g., Frankenberg et al. 2016, Cusworth et al. 2022, Chen, Sherwin et al. 2022, Conrad et al. 2023, Johnson et al. 2023, Sherwin et al. 2024) underscoring the need for comprehensive emissions inventories segmented by basin across the US. Airborne surveys are well-suited for collecting data to build these comprehensive, basin-level inventories because they allow for extensive spatial coverage, and have the spatial resolution, and the sensitivity to pinpoint individual methane sources. As remote sensing technologies enable rapid basin-scale surveys, it is imperative to establish scientifically and statistically robust standards to generate reliable and actionable emissions inventories. Recent work has shown that differences in airborne sampling strategies, detection technologies, and analysis can lead to large differences between survey conclusions if not correctly accounted for (Chen et al. 2024). This elevates the importance of incorporating proper sampling and analysis techniques when designing a methane emissions monitoring campaign to produce accurate results and facilitate cross-study comparisons. In this paper, we describe a survey strategy designed using the latest conclusions from the literature to align results from different aerial surveys. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions. We present results from a Department of Energy-funded project that deployed this survey strategy in two understudied oil and gas- producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on radiation, clouds, and precipitation over the Amazon: relative importance of aerosol–cloud and aerosol–radiation interactions

Biomass burning (BB) aerosols can influence regional and global climate through interactions with radiation, clouds, and precipitation. Here, we investigate the impact of BB aerosols on the energy balance and hydrological cycle over the Amazon Basin during the dry season. We performed simulations with a fully coupled meteorology–chemistry model, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), for a range of different BB emission scenarios to explore and characterize nonlinear effects and individual contributions from aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). The ARIs of BB aerosols tend to suppress low-level liquid clouds by local warming and increased evaporation and to facilitate the formation of high-level ice clouds by enhancing updrafts and condensation at high altitudes. In contrast, the ACIs of BB aerosol particles tend to enhance the formation and lifetime of low-level liquid clouds by providing more cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and to suppress the formation of high-level ice clouds by reducing updrafts and condensable water vapor at high altitudes (>8 km). For scenarios representing the lower and upper limits of BB emission estimates for recent years (2002–2016), we obtained total regional BB aerosol radiative forcings of –0.2 and 1.5 W m –2 , respectively, showing that the influence of BB aerosols on the regional energy balance can range from modest cooling to strong warming. We find that ACIs dominate at low BB emission rates and low aerosol optical depth (AOD), leading to an increased cloud liquid water path (LWP) and negative radiative forcing, whereas ARIs dominate at high BB emission rates and high AOD, leading to a reduction of LWP and positive radiative forcing. In all scenarios, BB aerosols led to a decrease in the frequency of occurrence and rate of precipitation, caused primarily by ACI effects at low aerosol loading and by ARI effects at high aerosol loading. The dependence of precipitation reduction on BB aerosol loading is greater in a strong convective regime than under weakly convective conditions. Overall, our results show that ACIs tend to saturate at high aerosol loading, whereas the strength of ARIs continues to increase and plays a more important role in highly polluted episodes and regions. This should hold not only for BB aerosols over the Amazon, but also for other light-absorbing aerosols such as fossil fuel combustion aerosols in industrialized and densely populated areas. The importance of ARIs at high aerosol loading highlights the need for accurately characterizing aerosol optical properties in the investigation of aerosol effects on clouds, precipitation, and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The mechanisms and seasonal differences of the impact of aerosols on daytime surface urban heat island effect

The urban heat island intensity (UHII) is the temperature difference between urban areas and their rural surroundings. It is commonly attributed to changes in the underlying surface structure caused by urbanization. Air pollution caused by aerosol particles can affect the UHII through changing (1) the surface energy balance by the aerosol radiative effect (ARE) and (2) planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) stability and airflow intensity by modifying thermodynamic structure, which is referred to as the aerosol dynamic effect (ADE). By analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations collected from 2001 to 2010 at 35 cities in China and using the WRF-Chem model, we find that the impact of aerosols on UHII differs considerably: reducing the UHII in summer but increasing the UHII in winter. This seasonal contrast is proposed to be caused by the different strengths of the ARE and ADE between summer and winter. In summer, the ARE on UHII is dominant over the ADE, cooling down surface temperature more strongly in urban areas than in rural areas because of much higher aerosol loading, and offsets the urban heating, therefore weakening UHII. In winter, however, the ADE is more dominant, because aerosols stabilize the PBL more in the polluted condition, weakening the near-surface heat transport over urban areas in both vertical and horizontal directions. This means that the heat accumulated in urban areas is dispersed less effectively, and thus the UHII is enhanced. These findings shed new light on the impact of the interaction between urbanization-induced surface changes and air pollution on urban climate.urban areas and their rural surroundings. It is commonly attributed to changes in the underlying surface structure caused by urbanization. Air pollution caused by aerosol particles can affect the UHII through changing (1) the surface energy balance by the aerosol radiative effect (ARE) and (2) planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) stability and airflow intensity by modifying thermodynamic structure, which is referred to as the aerosol dynamic effect (ADE). By analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations collected from 2001 to 2010 at 35 cities in China and using the WRF-Chem model, we find that the impact of aerosols on UHII differs considerably: reducing the UHII in summer but increasing the UHII in winter. This seasonal contrast is proposed to be caused by the different strengths of the ARE and ADE between summer and winter. In summer, the ARE on UHII is dominant over the ADE, cooling down surface temperature more strongly in urban areas than in rural areas because of much higher aerosol loading, and offsets the urban heating, therefore weakening UHII. In winter, however, the ADE is more dominant, because aerosols stabilize the PBL more in the polluted condition, weakening the near-surface heat transport over urban areas in both vertical and horizontal directions. This means that the heat accumulated in urban areas is dispersed less effectively, and thus the UHII is enhanced. These findings shed new light on the impact of the interaction between urbanization-induced surface changes and air pollution on urban climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Soil organic matter diagenetic state informs boreal forest ecosystem feedbacks to climate change

The fate of soil organic carbon (SOC) in boreal forests is dependent on the integrative ecosystem response to climate change. For example, boreal forest productivity is often nitrogen (N) limited, and climate warming can enhance N cycling and primary productivity. However, the net effect of this feedback on the SOC reservoir and its longevity with climate change remain unclear due to difficulty in detecting small differences between large and variable carbon (C) fluxes needed to determine net changes in soil reservoirs. The diagenetic state of SOC – resulting from the physicochemical and biological transformations that alter the original biomolecular composition of detrital inputs to soil over time – is useful for tracing the net response of SOC at the timescales relevant to climate change not usually discernible from fluxes and stocks alone. Here, we test two hypotheses using a mesic boreal forest climate transect: (1) the SOC diagenetic state is maintained across this climosequence, and (2) the maintenance of the SOC diagenetic state is a consequence of coupled soil C and N cycling, signifying the role of enhanced N cycling supporting SOC inputs that maintain SOC stocks within the warmer-climate forests. Shifts in nonvascular to vascular plant inputs with climate observed in these and other boreal forests highlighted the need to carefully separate biogeochemical indicators of SOC source from those signifying diagenetic alteration. We thus evaluated and applied lignin biomarkers to assess the diagenetic alteration of SOC in these boreal forest organic soils and directly compared the lignin diagenetic state with that of soil organic nitrogen (SON) assessed through amino acid composition. The lignin diagenetic state remained constant across the climate transect, indicating a balance between the input and removal of lignin in these mesic boreal forests. When combined with previous knowledge of these forest ecosystems, including the diagenetic state of SON and direct measures of C fluxes and stocks, the results indicate a coupled increase in C and N cycling with climate warming that supports forest productivity and maintains SOC stocks. This balance could markedly shift as other factors begin to limit forest productivity (e.g., trace nutrients, water) with further climate change or affect forest nutrient allocation (e.g., forest age or compositional change). Further application of the approach presented here could be used to detect the limits of this and other ecosystem–climate feedbacks, by providing a tractable and parameterizable index of the lignin state across large spatial scales, necessary for ecosystem-scale parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Over three decades, and counting, of near-surface turbulent flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility

Processes mediating the coupling of terrestrial, aquatic, biospheric, and atmospheric systems influence weather, climate, and ecosystem dynamics via transfer of energy, momentum, water, and carbon (or other species). These exchange processes are quantified by measurements of near-surface turbulent fluxes. Understanding processes at these interfaces provides insight toward understanding and predicting current and future states within the Earth system. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has been conducting measurements of near-surface turbulent fluxes since the early 1990s at long-term fixed locations and shorter-term mobile deployments across the Earth. ARM has utilized two established methods for conducting these measurements: energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) and eddy covariance (EC). Primary measurements from the former include sensible and latent heat flux, while the latter also measures fluxes of momentum and carbon (primarily carbon dioxide, with methane fluxes measured at two locations to date). The EBBR systems have been deployed at 22 locations, and, to date, the EC systems have been deployed at over 50 sites, with plans for additional novel site locations in the future. Herein, the history, evolution, and key aspects of these instrument systems are documented, along with information on data quality assurance and post-processing, as well as best use practices. Additionally, three data validation experiments were recently conducted, and their key findings are summarized. Finally, ancillary datasets acquired by ARM, which can contextualize and aid interpretation of the near-surface turbulent flux measurements, are discussed. The datasets described herein include the eddy correlation flux measurement system: 30ECOR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1879993, Sullivan et al., 1997), 30QCECOR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1097546, Gaustad, 2003), ECORSF (https://doi.org/10.5439/1494128, Sullivan et al., 2019a), and associated AmeriFlux and Methane Value-Added Product, AMCMETHANE (https://doi.org/10.5439/1508268, Billesbach, 2011); the energy balance Bowen ratio system: 30EBBR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1023895, Sullivan et al., 1993) and 30BAEBBR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1027268, Gaustad and Xie, 1993); and the carbon dioxide flux measurement system: CO2FLX (https://doi.org/10.5439/1287574, https://doi.org/10.5439/1287575, https://doi.org/10.5439/1287576, Koontz et al., 2015a, b, c; https://doi.org/10.5439/1989774, https://doi.org/10.5439/1989776, https://doi.org/10.5439/1992202, Biraud and Chan, 2002a, b, c). These data can be found by searching the above data stream names at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/#/results/ (last access: 8 September 2025).

Sullivan, Ryan C. [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the small-scale deposition of snow onto structured Arctic sea ice during a MOSAiC storm using snowBedFoam 1.0.

The remoteness and extreme conditions of the Arctic make it a very difficult environment to investigate. In these polar regions covered by sea ice, the wind is relatively strong due to the absence of obstructions and redistributes a large part of the deposited snow mass, which complicates estimates for precipitation hardly distinguishable from blowing or drifting snow. Moreover, the snow mass balance in the sea ice system is still poorly understood, notably due to the complex structure of its surface. Quantitatively assessing the snow distribution on sea ice and its connection to the sea ice surface features is an important step to remove the snow mass balance uncertainties (i.e., snow transport contribution) in the Arctic environment. In this work we introduce snowBedFoam 1.0., a physics-based snow transport model implemented in the open-source fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM. We combine the numerical simulations with terrestrial laser scan observations of surface dynamics to simulate snow deposition in a MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) sea ice domain with a complicated structure typical for pressure ridges. The results demonstrate that a large fraction of snow accumulates in their vicinity, which compares favorably against scanner measurements. However, the approximations imposed by the numerical framework, together with potential measurement errors (precipitation), give rise to quantitative inaccuracies, which should be addressed in future work. The modeling of snow distribution on sea ice should help to better constrain precipitation estimates and more generally assess and predict snow and ice dynamics in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗