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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Deriving iceberg ablation rates using an on-iceberg autonomous phase-sensitive radar (ApRES)

Abstract The increase in iceberg discharge into the polar oceans highlights the importance of understanding how quickly icebergs are deteriorating and where the resulting freshwater injection is occurring. Recent advances in quantifying iceberg deterioration through combinations of modeling, remote sensing and direct in situ measurements have successfully calculated overall ablation rates, and surface and sidewall ablation; however, in situ measurements of basal melt rates have been difficult to obtain. Radar has successfully measured iceberg thickness, but repeat measurements, which would capture a change in iceberg thickness with time, have not yet been collected. Here we test the applicability of using an on-iceberg autonomous phase-sensitive radar (ApRES) to quantify basal ablation rates of a large (~800 m long) non-tabular Arctic iceberg during an intensive 2019 summer field campaign in Sermilik Fjord, southeast Greenland. We find that ApRES can be used to measure basal ablation even over a short deployment period (10 d), and also provide a lower bound on sidewall melt. This study fills a critical gap in iceberg research and pushes the limits of field instrumentation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Emergent Relationships Among Sea Ice, Longwave Radiation, and the Beaufort High Circulation Exposed Through Parameter Uncertainty Analysis

Using a perturbed parameter ensemble of a coupled climate model, emerging relationships are identified between sea ice area, net surface longwave radiation, and the atmospheric circulation over the Beaufort gyre. There is a strong positive correlation between sea ice area and the net longwave radiation over the ocean-ice surface during the melting season and a negative correlation during the freezing season. The mechanisms responsible for the longwave radiation balance at the surface are mainly driven by sea ice variations in the freezing season and by clouds in the melting season. A strong positive (negative) correlation is also found between the fall (summer) total sea ice area in the Arctic and the sea level pressure over the Beaufort High region. It is argued that as sea ice coverage is lost, static stability losses are severe in fall, resulting in enhanced evaporation, vertical motions, and weakening of the general large-scale anticyclonic circulation of the Beaufort High.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics of Future Warmer Base States in CESM2

Abstract Simulations of 21st century climate with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the standard atmosphere (CAM6), denoted CESM2(CAM6), and the latest generation of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6), denoted CESM2(WACCM6), are presented, and a survey of general results is described. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of CESM2(CAM6) is 5.3°C, and CESM2(WACCM6) is 4.8°C, while the transient climate response (TCR) is 2.1°C in CESM2(CAM6) and 2.0°C in CESM2(WACCM6). Thus, these two CESM2 model versions have higher values of ECS than the previous generation of model, the CESM (CAM5) (hereafter CESM1), that had an ECS of 4.1°C, though the CESM2 versions have lower values of TCR compared to the CESM1 with a somewhat higher value of 2.3°C. All model versions produce credible simulations of the time evolution of historical global surface temperature. The higher ECS values for the CESM2 versions are reflected in higher values of global surface temperature increase by 2,100 in CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) compared to CESM1 between comparable emission scenarios for the high forcing scenario. Future warming among CESM2 model versions and scenarios diverges around 2050. The larger values of TCR and ECS in CESM2(CAM6) compared to CESM1 are manifested by greater warming in the tropics. Associated with a higher climate sensitivity, for CESM2(CAM6) the first instance of an ice‐free Arctic in September occurs for all scenarios and ensemble members in the 2030–2050 time frame, but about a decade later in CESM2(WACCM6), occurring around 2040–2060.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal Dependent Impact of Ice Cloud Longwave Scattering on the Polar Climate

Most climate models neglect cloud longwave (LW) scattering because scattering is considered negligible compared to strong LW absorption by clouds and greenhouse gases. While this rationale is valid for simulating extrapolar regions, it is questionable for the polar regions, where the atmosphere is dry and hence has weak absorption, and ice clouds that have strong scattering capability frequently occur. Using the slab-ocean Community Earth System Model, we show that ice cloud LW scattering can warm winter surface air temperature by 0.8–1.8 K in the Arctic and 1.3–1.9 K in the Antarctic, while this warming becomes much weaker in polar summer. Such scattering effect cannot be correctly assessed when sea surface temperature and sea ice are prescribed as this effect is manifested through a surface-atmosphere coupling. Furthermore, cloud LW scattering is a necessity for the correct simulation of polar climate and surface radiation budget, especially in the winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating Thaw and Plant Productivity Constraints on Old Soil Carbon Respiration From Permafrost

Isotopic radiocarbon (Δ 14 C) signatures of ecosystem respiration (Reco) can identify old soil carbon (C) loss and serve as an early indicator of permafrost destabilization in a warming climate. Warming also stimulates plant productivity causing plant respiration to dominate Reco Δ 14 C signatures and potentially obscuring old soil C loss. Here, we investigate how a wide spatio-temporal gradient of permafrost thaw and plant productivity affects Reco Δ 14 C patterns and isotopic partitioning. Spatial gradients came from a warming experiment with doubling thaw depth and variable biomass, and a vegetation removal manipulation to eliminate plant contributions. We sampled in August and September to capture transitions from high to low plant productivity, decreased surface soil temperature, and relatively small seasonal thaw extensions. We found that surface processes dominate spatial variation in old soil C loss and a process-based partitioning approach was crucial for constraining old soil C loss. Resampling the same plots in different times of the year revealed that old soil C losses tripled with cooling surface temperature, and the largest old soil C losses were detected when the organic-to-mineral soil horizons thawed (~50–60 cm). We suggest that the measured increase in old soil respiration over the season and when the organic-to-mineral horizon thawed, may be explained by mobilization of nitrogen that stimulates microbial decomposition at depth. Our results suggest that soil C in the organic to mineral horizon may be an important source of soil C loss as the entire Arctic region warms and could lead to nonlinearities in projected permafrost climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tundra Underlain By Thawing Permafrost Persistently Emits Carbon to the Atmosphere Over 15 Years of Measurements

Warming of the Arctic can stimulate microbial decomposition and release of permafrost soil carbon (C) as greenhouse gases, and thus has the potential to influence climate change. At the same time, plant growth can be stimulated and offset C release. This study presents a 15-year time series comprising chamber and eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem C exchange in a tundra ecosystem in Alaska where permafrost has been degrading due to regional warming. The site was a carbon dioxide source to the atmosphere with a cumulative total loss of 781.6 g C m -2 over the study period. Both gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) were already likely higher than historical levels such that increases in R eco losses overwhelmed GPP gains in most years. This shift to a net C source to the atmosphere likely started in the early 1990s when permafrost was observed to warm and thaw at the site. Shifts in the plant community occur more slowly and are likely to constrain future GPP increases as compared to more rapid shifts in the microbial community that contribute to increased Reco. Observed rates suggest that cumulative net soil C loss of 4.18–10.00 kg C m -2 —8%–20% of the current active layer soil C pool—could occur from 2020 to the end of the century. This amount of permafrost C loss to the atmosphere represents a significant accelerating feedback to climate change if it were to occur at a similar magnitude across the permafrost region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of a New Sea Ice Thermodynamic Formulation in the CESM2 Sea Ice Component

Abstract The sea ice component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) contains new “mushy‐layer” physics that simulates prognostic salinity in the sea ice, with consequent modifications to sea ice thermodynamics and the treatment of melt ponds. The changes to the sea ice model and their influence on coupled model simulations are described here. Two simulations were performed to assess the changes in the vertical thermodynamics formulation with prognostic salinity compared to a constant salinity profile. Inclusion of the mushy layer thermodynamics of Turner et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20171 ) in a fully coupled Earth system model produces thicker and more extensive sea ice in the Arctic, with relatively unchanged sea ice in the Antarctic compared to simulations using a constant salinity profile. While this is consistent with the findings of uncoupled ice‐ocean model studies, the role of the frazil and congelation growth is more important in fully coupled simulations. Melt pond drainage is also an important contribution to simulated ice thickness differences as also found in the uncoupled simulations of Turner and Hunke (2015; https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010358 ). However, it is an interaction of the ponds and the snow fraction that impacts the surface albedo and hence the top melt. The changes in the thermodynamics and resulting ice state modify the ice‐ocean‐atmosphere fluxes with impacts on the atmosphere and ocean states, particularly temperature.

Bailey, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams

Abstract The presence of permafrost influences the flow paths of water through Arctic landscapes and thereby has the potential to impact stream discharge and thermal regimes. Observations from 11 headwater streams in Alaska showed that July water temperatures were higher in catchments with more near‐surface permafrost. We apply a fully coupled cryohydrology model to investigate if the impact of permafrost on flow path depth could cause the same pattern in temperatures of groundwater discharging from hillslopes to streams. The model simulates surface energy and water balances, snow, and subsurface water and energy balances for two‐dimensional hillslope model cases with varying permafrost extent. We find that hillslopes with continuous permafrost have more shallow flow paths and twice as high rates of evapotranspiration, compared to hillslopes with no permafrost. For our simulated cases, 6.7% of the horizontal water flux moves through the top organic soil layers when there is continuous permafrost, while only 0.5% moves through organic layers without permafrost. The deeper flow paths in permafrost‐free simulations buffer seasonal temperature extremes, so that summer groundwater discharge temperatures are highest with continuous permafrost. Our results suggest that permafrost thawing alters groundwater flow paths and can lead to decreases in summer stream temperatures and reductions in evapotranspiration in headwater catchments. These changes are of potential importance for stream biotic components of ecosystems, however, the full impact remains unknown.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intercomparison of Thermal Regime Algorithms in 1-D Lake Models

Lakes are an important component of the global weather and climate system, but the modeling of their thermal regimes has shown large uncertainties due to the highly diverse lake properties and model configurations. Here we evaluate the algorithms of four key lake thermal processes including turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing, light extinction, and snow density, using a highly diverse lake dataset provided by the Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) 2a lake sector. Algorithm codes are configured and run separately within the same parent model to rule out any interference from factors apart from the algorithms examined. Evaluations are based on both simulation accuracy and recalibration complexity for application to global lakes. For turbulent heat fluxes, the non-Monin-Obukhov similarity (MOS) based, more simplified algorithms perform better in predicting lake epilimnion temperatures and achieve high convergence in the values of the calibrated parameters. For wind-driven mixing, a two-algorithm strategy considering lake shape and season is suggested with the regular mixing algorithm used for spring and earlier summer and the mixing-enhanced algorithm for summer steady stratification and fall overturn periods. There are no evident differences in the simulated thermocline depths using different light extinction algorithms or the observation. Finally, for lake ice phenology, a constant snow density at around 110 kg m-3 is found to be sufficient for most northern lakes while the Arctic lakes require a higher value. Our study provides highly practical guides for improving 1-D lake models and feasible parameterization strategies to better simulate global lake thermal regimes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon Accumulation, Flux, and Fate in Stordalen Mire, a Permafrost Peatland in Transition

Abstract Stordalen Mire is a peatland in the discontinuous permafrost zone in arctic Sweden that exhibits a habitat gradient from permafrost palsa, to Sphagnum bog underlain by permafrost, to Eriophorum ‐dominated fully thawed fen. We used three independent approaches to evaluate the annual, multi‐decadal, and millennial apparent carbon accumulation rates (aCAR) across this gradient: seven years of direct semi‐continuous measurement of CO 2 and CH 4 exchange, and 21 core profiles for 210 Pb and 14 C peat dating. Year‐round chamber measurements indicated net carbon balance of −13 ± 8, −49 ± 15, and −91 ± 43 g C m −2 y −1 for the years 2012–2018 in palsa, bog, and fen, respectively. Methane emission offset 2%, 7%, and 17% of the CO 2 uptake rate across this gradient. Recent aCAR indicates higher C accumulation rates in surface peats in the palsa and bog compared to current CO 2 fluxes, but these assessments are more similar in the fen. aCAR increased from low millennial‐scale levels (17–29 g C m −2 y −1 ) to moderate aCAR of the past century (72–81 g C m −2 y −1 ) to higher recent aCAR of 90–147 g C m −2 y −1 . Recent permafrost collapse, greater inundation and vegetation response has made the landscape a stronger CO 2 sink, but this CO 2 sink is increasingly offset by rising CH 4 emissions, dominated by modern carbon as determined by 14 C. The higher CH 4 emissions result in higher net CO 2‐equivalent emissions, indicating that radiative forcing of this mire and similar permafrost ecosystems will exert a warming influence on future climate.

Holmes, M. E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

CMIP6 Models Underestimate the Holton‐Tan Effect

Abstract The teleconnection between the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Arctic polar vortex is investigated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models. Output from 14 CMIP6 models is compared with reanalysis, three experiments with prescribed QBOs, one of which has no free polar stratospheric variability, and transient experiments in which a QBO is prescribed in runs previously devoid of a QBO. Each CMIP6 model underestimates the Holton‐Tan effect (HTE), the weakening of the polar vortex expected with QBO easterlies in the tropical lower stratosphere. To establish why, potential vorticity maps are used to investigate longitudinal variations in the teleconnection. Prescribing easterly QBO in the transient experiments promotes more high‐latitude planetary wave breaking by influencing the mid‐latitude stratospheric circulation, particularly over Asia. CMIP6 models that better simulate this response over Asia better simulate the HTE. These models also have stronger 10 hPa QBO westerlies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cloud Top Radiative Cooling Rate Drives Non-Precipitating Stratiform Cloud Responses to Aerosol Concentration

Increases in aerosol concentration are well known to influence the microphysical processes and radiative properties of clouds. By reducing droplet size, an increase in aerosol can lessen collision efficiency and increase liquid water path (LWP) in precipitating clouds or enhance evaporation rate and decrease LWP in non-precipitating clouds. We utilize large eddy simulations to further investigate these aerosol indirect effects in Arctic mixed-phase clouds and find, in agreement with previous studies, precipitating clouds to experience an increase in LWP and non-precipitating clouds a decrease in LWP. Most importantly however, our results reveal a different explanation for why such an LWP decrease occurs in decoupled, non-precipitating clouds. We find enhanced evaporation near cloud top to be driven primarily by a strengthening of maximum radiative cooling rate with aerosol concentration which drives stronger entrainment, an effect that holds true even in clouds that are optically thick.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatology of Melting Layer Heights Estimated From Cloud Radar Observations at Various Locations

A melting layer (ML) detection algorithm for cloud radar with polarimetric capability was developed and applied to the cloud radar data collected from five different sites around the world for several years. The retrieved melting layer top height (MLH) showed a very good correspondence with the ECMWF Reanalysis 5 zero degree level data for all five sites. The ML characteristics were distinctively different for different sites, revealing climatological characteristics of ML forming clouds in different regions. Generally, ML tended to occur more frequently in summer than in winter except for a maritime site, where low stratiform clouds formed frequently in summer, the top of which might be lower than the freezing level. In contrast, at two Arctic sites, ML occurred almost exclusively in summer because it was too cold to have an ML in the other seasons. The MLH also varied significantly from site to site but generally was higher during warmer seasons. Based on MLH, two new indices, bulk temperature lapse rate (BLR) and relative depth (RD) of liquid cloud below MLH (RD) were developed, which were useful to explain the environmental characteristics of the five sites. BLR generally increased with the surface temperature at all sites except at the marine site that showed an opposite trend, where a unique synoptic pattern in winter generated high BLR in this cold season. Finally, these findings confirm that studies on thermodynamic structures using cloud radars can be broadened, taking advantage of BLR and RD information, as these indices can represent environmental thermodynamic characteristics of the clouds that have ML.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hierarchy of Global Ocean Models Coupled to CESM1

Abstract We develop a hierarchy of simplified ocean models for coupled ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The hierarchy has four members: a slab ocean model, a mixed‐layer model (MLM) with entrainment and detrainment, an Ekman MLM, and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Flux corrections of heat and salt are applied to the simplified models ensuring that all hierarchy members have the same climatology. We diagnose the needed flux corrections from auxiliary simulations in which we restore the temperature and salinity to the daily climatology obtained from a target CESM1 simulation. The resulting three‐dimensional corrections contain the interannual variability fluxes that maintain the correct vertical gradients of temperature and salinity in the tropics. We find that the inclusion of mixed‐layer entrainment and Ekman flow produces sea surface temperature and surface air temperature fields whose means and variances are progressively more similar to those produced by the target CESM1 simulation. We illustrate the application of the hierarchy to the problem of understanding the response of the climate system to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We find that the shifts in the positions of the mid‐latitude westerly jet and of the Inter‐tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to sea‐ice loss depend critically on upper ocean processes. Specifically, heat uptake associated with the mixed‐layer entrainment influences the shift in the westerly jet and ITCZ. Moreover, the shift of ITCZ is sensitive to the form of Ekman flow parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model

Abstract During the Last Interglacial, approximately 129 to 116 ka (thousand years ago), the Arctic summer climate was warmer than the present, and the Greenland Ice Sheet retreated to a smaller extent than its current state. Previous model‐derived and geological reconstruction estimates of the sea‐level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial vary widely. Here, we conduct a transient climate simulation from 127 to 119 ka using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which includes a dynamic ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model, CISM2) that is interactively coupled to the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice components. Vegetation distribution is updated every 500 years based on biomes simulated using a monthly climatology to force the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model. Results show a substantial retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, reaching a minimum extent at 121.9 ka, equivalent to a 3.0 m rise in sea level relative to the present day, followed by gradual regrowth. In contrast, a companion simulation employing static vegetation based on pre‐industrial conditions shows a much smaller ice‐sheet retreat, highlighting the importance of the changes in high‐latitude vegetation distribution for amplifying the ice‐sheet response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-Term Changes in Concentration and Yield of Riverine Dissolved Silicon From the Poles to the Tropics

Riverine exports of silicon (Si) influence global carbon cycling through the growth of marine diatoms, which account for ~25% of global primary production. Climate change will likely alter river Si exports in biome-specific ways due to interacting shifts in chemical weathering rates, hydrologic connectivity, and metabolic processes in aquatic and terrestrial systems. Nonetheless, factors driving long-term changes in Si exports remain unexplored at local, regional, and global scales. We evaluated how concentrations and yields of dissolved Si (DSi) changed over the last several decades of rapid climate warming using long-term data sets from 60 rivers and streams spanning the globe (e.g., Antarctic, tropical, temperate, boreal, alpine, Arctic systems). We show that widespread changes in river DSi concentration and yield have occurred, with the most substantial shifts occurring in alpine and polar regions. The magnitude and direction of trends varied within and among biomes, were most strongly associated with differences in land cover, and were often independent of changes in river discharge. These findings indicate that there are likely diverse mechanisms driving change in river Si biogeochemistry that span the land-water interface, which may include glacial melt, changes in terrestrial vegetation, and river productivity. Finally, trends were often stronger in months outside of the growing season, particularly in temperate and boreal systems, demonstrating a potentially important role of shifting seasonality for the flux of Si from rivers. Our results have implications for the timing and magnitude of silica processing in rivers and its delivery to global oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions

Abstract Ural blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric models, we explore how the early winter atmospheric circulation responds to a 2‐week persistent UB anomaly imposed in early November. Experiments are carried out with two different configurations of Barents‐Kara (BK) sea‐ice concentration to examine whether it plays a role in how UB impacts atmospheric variability. In both models, the UB anomaly is followed by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which lasts up to 2 months after the forcing is released. Interestingly, the response is more persistent under low BK sea‐ice conditions, that is, BK sea ice modulates the atmospheric response to UB. Additional experiments with prescribed sea ice concentration anomalies alone suggest that BK sea ice exerts a limited influence on early winter NH atmospheric variability. The response to UB involves a weakening of the polar vortex that persists longer under low BK sea ice, which explains the more persistent response in that configuration. Our study highlights that UB variability in November is a robust precursor for early winter NAO/polar stratosphere anomalies, and this may be more relevant in the context of declining Arctic sea‐ice extent. Provided that climate models accurately capture this teleconnection, it has the potential to improve subseasonal predictions of the NH wintertime climate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗