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DOE OSTI2022

Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) Study: Volume 1 (Main Report)

The Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study investigates the engineering and economic performance of a transactive energy retail market coordinating a high penetration of customer-side flexible energy assets. The study seeks to answer whether such an implementation is cost effective for customers, recovers sufficient revenue for DSOs, and is equally applicable and beneficial to a range of flexible asset types, renewable generation scenarios, and market assumptions. Using a highly interdisciplinary co-simulation and valuation framework, this assessment encompasses the entire electrical delivery system from bulk system generation and transmission, through the distribution system, to the modeling of individual customer buildings and flexible assets (including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning [HVAC] units, water heaters, batteries, and electric vehicles). The study exercises a transactive energy retail market coordination scheme designed to integrate with an existing day-ahead and real-time competitive wholesale electricity market. Software decision-making agents are designed for the retail market operator as well as various price-responsive flexible assets. The engineering and economic performance of the transactive energy scheme is studied for two separate flexible asset deployments: flexible loads (HVAC units and residential water heaters) and behind-the-meter batteries. The results of each transactive case are compared to a business-as-usual case. These cases are subject to two different renewable generation scenarios, a moderate renewable generation scenario, representative of current levels of renewable generation deployment, and a future high renewables scenario, including the increased deployment of rooftop solar photovoltaic and electric vehicles. The transactive coordination scheme is shown to produce effective and stable control and decrease peak loads 9–15%. The resulting annual demand flexibility provides net economic savings of $3.3–5.0B per year for a region the size of Texas. Detailed analysis shows that net benefits were seen for a range of distribution system operator, customer, and flexible asset types. Both participating customer (with transactive flexible assets) and nonparticipating customers (with nonflexible assets) see reductions in annual utility bills and net annual energy expenses in the range of 10–16%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

DSO+T: Valuation Methodology and Economic Metrics (DSO+T Study: Volume 4)

This report summarizes a rigorous valuation analysis methodology used by the Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study to estimate the financial benefits and costs of adopting Transactive Energy coordination of distributed energy resources for key stakeholders (for example distribution system operators and customers). This was achieved by modeling the value exchanges between stakeholders and determining the annualized costs and revenues experienced by stakeholders, enabling the evaluation of overall impact on stakeholder’s annualized cash flow. Extensive work was conducted developing methods to estimate the operating costs of distribution system operators at a level of granularity that would allow the financial impact of implementing a transactive energy approach to be estimated. This work included developing parametric models for labor and software costs, distribution system capital and maintenance costs, growth rates, and factors to determine annualized costs of capital investments. Simulation results were used to calculate wholesale energy costs and revenues from retail sales. Valuation analysis methods were also developed for other stakeholders including customers, the transmission system operator, independent system operator, and generators. The resulting capability allows a complete mapping of the flow of financial value between stakeholders that can be directly integrated with the results of demand flexibility simulations. Example results are provided for a business-as-usual case and compared to a transactive energy case as well as to actual cost data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

QSE 04-21-2022 ST-11 Alpha Data Report

In the California Industrial General Permit (IGP) 2014-0057-DWQ for storm water monitoring, effective July 1, 2015, there are 21 contaminants that have been assigned NAL (Numeric Action Level) values, both annual and instantaneous. For annual NALs, an exceedance occurs when the average of all analytical results from all samples taken at a facility during a reporting year for a given parameter exceeds an annual NAL value listed in Table 2 of the General Permit. For instantaneous maximum NALs, an exceedance occurs when two or more analytical results from samples taken for any parameter within a reporting year exceed the instantaneous maximum NAL value (for TSS and O&G), or are outside of the instantaneous maximum NAL range (for pH) listed in Table 2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Idaho National Laboratory CY 2021 National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Analysis, Methodology and Results for Radionuclides

This report details calculations of potential dose at public receptor locations surrounding the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site boundary, and INL in-town facilities, from radionuclides reported to be in use and potentially emitted from INL facilities during calendar year (CY) 2021. All calculations were performed in accordance with the requirements in Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Title 40, “Protection of the Environment,” Part 61, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs),” Subpart H, “National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities” (40 CFR 61, Subpart H). Modeling methodology, model input parameters, and contribution to dose by facility, source, and radionuclide at the maximally exposed individual (MEI) location are also discussed. The information in this report supports the “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants - Calendar Year 2021 INL Report for Radionuclides” (INL 2022). In CY 2021, the estimated annual potential dose at the INL Site MEI location was 6.67E-02 mrem/yr, up slightly from the previous year, but far less than the regulatory standard of 10 mrem/yr (CFR 40 Part 61, Subpart H). Approximately 97% of the total dose to the INL Site MEI originated from MFC sources. Emissions from INL in-town facilities resulted in an estimated annual potential dose of 6.21E-03 mrem/yr to the MEI, down 40% from the CY 2020 estimated dose. Year-to-year variations in estimated annual dose can be attributed to adjustments in laboratory operations, changes to facility infrastructure, and variation in meteorological conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report documents the eighth edition of the annual Standard Scenarios. It summarizes 70 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures. In August 2022, the United States Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a law aimed at accelerating U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. This year’s scenarios include representations of the main electricity-sector provisions from IRA and the potential impact on electricity demand. The Standard Scenarios are simulated using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which projects utility-scale electricity sector evolution for the contiguous United States using a system-wide, least-cost approach subject to policy and operational constraints. A subset of the scenarios are simulated in the PLEXOS production cost model to obtain a broader suite of metrics at the hourly resolution, which are made available through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) annual Cambium data sets. The scenarios can be viewed and downloaded from NREL’s Scenario Viewer. Annual results are available for the full suite of scenarios in the Standard Scenarios projects in the viewer, whereas the Cambium projects contain hourly data for a subset of scenarios. The Standard Scenarios includes a scenario called the Mid-case, which has central or median values for core inputs such as technology costs and fuel prices, moderately paced demand growth averaging 1.3% per year, and electricity sector policies as they existed in September 2022 (including IRA). The remaining 69 scenarios are created by varying inputs such as technology and fuel prices, resource availability, demand growth, whether nascent generation technologies are allowed, and by introducing national decarbonization constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cellular Shade Energy Savings in a Commercial Setting

Windows cause approximately 1.7 quad of heating and cooling energy consumption in the United States. This energy consumption can be reduced by using high-efficiency window attachments. Common Venetian blinds and planar shades, such as roller shades, might block solar radiation, but they do not provide a significant improvement to window system thermal transmittance. Cellular shades have better thermal performance compared to other shading devices because of the honeycomb structure that traps air in pockets to create thermal insulation. However, evaluating the energy savings potential of cellular shades using experimental testing in commercial settings is limited. Moreover, the effect of cellular shades on daylighting and glare is yet to be evaluated using field testing. In this study, experimental testing of cellular shades was performed in a real building with emulated occupancy for both a cooling and a heating season. Compared with a room without shades, the use of cellular shades in experimental testing showed incremental energy savings of 4.6% to 9.4% for cooling and higher than 20% for heating. The experimental data were used to calibrate the baseline energy model and validate the cellular shades model. Annual simulation of cellular shades was performed for a medium office prototype building using the validated cellular shades model. The annual simulation was performed in Phoenix, Nashville, and Rochester. The annual savings for HVAC energy was 25% for Phoenix, 27% for Nashville, and 19% for Rochester.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cambium 2022 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision making. The 2022 Cambium data set is the third annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL’s Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2022’s scenarios (Section 3), define the metrics (Section 5), and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics (Section 6).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

DSO+T: Expanded Study Results DSO+T Study: Volume 5

The Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study investigates the engineering and economic performance of a transactive energy retail market coordinating a high penetration of customer-side flexible energy assets. The study seeks to answer whether such an implementation is cost effective for customers, recovers sufficient revenue for DSOs, and is equally applicable and beneficial to a range of flexible asset types, renewable generation scenarios, and market assumptions. This report volume provides a detailed set of results for the DSO+T study extending results presented in Volumes 1, 2, and 4. The engineering and economic performance of the transactive energy scheme is presented for two separate flexible asset deployments: flexible loads (HVAC units and residential water heaters) and behind-the-meter batteries. The results of each transactive case are compared to a business-as-usual case. These cases are subject to two different renewable generation scenarios, a moderate renewable generation scenario, representative of current levels of renewable generation deployment, and a future high renewables scenario, including the increased deployment of rooftop solar photovoltaic and electric vehicles. The transactive coordination scheme is shown to produce effective and stable control and decrease peak loads 9–15%. The resulting annual demand flexibility provides net economic savings of $3.3–5.0B per year for a region the size of Texas. Detailed analysis shows that net benefits were seen for a range of distribution system operator, customer, and flexible asset types. Both participating customer (with transactive flexible assets) and nonparticipating customers (with nonflexible assets) see reductions in annual utility bills and net annual energy expenses in the range of 10–16%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Idaho National Laboratory CY 2022 National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Analysis, Methodology and Results for Radionuclides

This report details calculations of potential dose at public receptor locations surrounding the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site boundary, and INL in-town facilities, from radionuclides reported to be in use and potentially emitted from INL facilities during calendar year (CY) 2022. All calculations were performed in accordance with the requirements in Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Title 40, “Protection of the Environment,” Part 61, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs),” Subpart H, “National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities” (40 CFR 61, Subpart H). Modeling methodology, model input parameters, and contribution to dose by facility, source, and radionuclide at the maximally exposed individual (MEI) location are also discussed. The information in this report supports the “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants – Calendar Year 2022 INL Report for Radionuclides” (DOE-ID 2023). In CY 2022, the estimated annual potential dose at the INL Site MEI location was 1.78E-02 mrem/yr, down from the previous year, and far less than the regulatory standard of 10 mrem/yr (CFR 40 Part 61, Subpart H). Approximately 87% of the total dose to the INL Site MEI originated from Materials and Fuels Complex sources. Emissions from INL in-town facilities resulted in an estimated annual potential dose of 4.03E-03 mrem/yr to the MEI, down 35% from the CY 2021 estimated dose. Year-to-year variations in estimated annual dose can be attributed to adjustments in laboratory operations, changes to facility infrastructure, and variation in meteorological conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

2022 Site Environmental Report (SER)

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is managed on behalf of the Department of Energy (DOE) by Brookhaven Science Associates (BSA), a partnership between Stony Brook University and Battelle, and six core universities: Columbia, Cornell, Harvard, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton, and Yale. For over 75 years, the Laboratory has played a lead role in the DOE Science and Technology mission and continues to contribute to the DOE’s missions in energy resources, environmental quality, and national security. BNL manages its world-class scientific research operations with sensitivity to environmental issues and community concerns. The Laboratory’s Environmental, Safety, Security, and Health (ESSH) Policy reflects the commitment of BNL’s management to fully integrate environmental stewardship into all facets of its mission and operations. BNL prepares an annual Site Environmental Report (SER) in accordance with DOE Order 231.1B, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting. The report is written to inform the public, regulators, employees, and other stakeholders of the Laboratory’s environmental performance during the calendar year in review. Volume I of the SER summarizes environmental data; environmental management performance; compliance with applicable DOE, federal, state, and local regulations; and performance in restoration and surveillance monitoring programs. BNL has prepared annual SERs since 1971 and has documented nearly all its environmental history since the Laboratory’s inception in 1947. Volume II of the SER, the Groundwater Status Report, is also prepared annually to report on the status of groundwater protection and restoration efforts. Volume II includes detailed technical summaries of groundwater data and treatment system operations and is intended for regulators and other technically oriented stakeholders. A summary of the information contained in Volume II is included in Chapter 7, Groundwater Protection, of this volume.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cambium 2023 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2023 Cambium data set is the fourth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity (Gagnon et al. 2024). Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2023's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

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DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Turbine Integrated Mortality Reduction (TIMR SM ) Technology as a Smart Curtailment Approach (Final Summary Report)

Wind energy is a crucial technology for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, the growth and deployment of wind energy in North America have led to the deaths of many bat species due to operating wind turbines. Hundreds of thousands of bats are estimated to die at wind turbines annually in North America. Operational minimization, which includes feathering turbine blades and curtailment, has been documented to reduce bat fatality effectively. Curtailment refers to altering turbine operation based on wind speed, time of year, temperature, sensors, and activity models. However, when turbines are curtailed, they do not generate power, resulting in energy loss and revenue for wind energy facilities. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) funded the development of Turbine Integrated Mortality Reduction (TIM SM ) Technology, which curtails turbine operation when bats are detected. The initial TIMR system research showed promising results, with an 85% reduction in overall bat fatalities and a 91% reduction for the little brown bat. However, these results were based on a single site during one fall season, and it was unclear if similar results could be replicated at other wind energy facilities. This research aimed to validate the TIMR system results from the prior field study at a second site in the U.S., estimate the power production and reduction in bat mortality at turbines with installed TIMR systems relative to blanket curtailment and fully operational turbines, test the TIMR system in two calendar years and during the summer and fall periods, and evaluate the operational and commercial characteristics of the TIMR system for potential wind industry adoption. The study was conducted at a 500.9-MW wind energy facility in southeast Adair County, Iowa. Three experimental treatments were involved in this randomized block design study: TIMR, Curtailment at 5.0 m/s, and Normal Operation. In 2021, three treatments were used at 18 turbines, expanding to four treatments across 36 turbines in 2022. The TIMR system worked as designed throughout the entire study; however, because of unexpected wind turbine operational challenges in 2021, there was not sufficient sample size to evaluate the treatment differences. In 2022, there were significant differences in fatality levels between treatment types and normal operating turbines. Curtailment at 5.0 m/s reduced fatalities by 30.8% compared to normal operations, and TIMR decreased fatalities by 48.6% compared to normal operations. Two different methods were used to evaluate the differences in energy loss for each treatment. The TIMR system resulted in 1.3% to 1.6 % annual energy loss in 2021 and 1.0% to 1.2 % in 2022. The Curtailment at 5.0 m/s resulted in 0.6% to 0.8 % annual energy loss in 2021 and 0.5% to 0.6 % in 2022. The project achieved all the stated objectives and demonstrated that TIMR is an effective technology that balances bat fatality reduction with energy generation. The results will support the deployment of TIMR and other acoustic sensor-based technologies. The research provides valuable insights into the impact of different treatments on fatality rates and energy outputs, contributing to the ongoing efforts to mitigate the environmental impact of wind energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

2023 Site Environmental Report: Volume 1

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy and economic impacts of U.S. federal energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2024

This paper presents estimates of the key impacts of U.S. national energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2024. The standards for consumer products, commercial and industrial equipment, lighting products, and plumbing products include those set by legislation as well as standards adopted by the Department of Energy (DOE) through rulemaking. In 2024 alone, these standards are estimated to have saved an estimated 6.0 quads of primary energy, which is equivalent to 6.5% of total U.S. energy consumption, and 1.7 trillion gallons of water, which is equivalent to approximately 12% of the annual water withdrawals for public supply in the U.S in 2015. The estimated reduction in CO 2 emissions associated with the standards in 2024 was 270 million metric tons, which is equivalent to 5.6% of total annual U.S. CO 2 emissions from energy consumption. The annual savings in operating costs for households and businesses totaled $\$$105 billion, and the average household saved $\$$576 in operating costs as a result of standards on residential appliances and plumbing products. The estimated cumulative past and future energy and water savings from these standards amount to 307 quads of energy and almost 53 trillion gallons of water. The estimated cumulative CO 2 emissions reduction from the standards come to 10.3 billion metric tons. Accounting for the increased upfront costs of more-efficient products and the energy and water cost savings over the products’ lifetime, the standards have a cumulative net present value of benefit of $\$$3.2 trillion using 3 percent discount rate and $\$$3.5 trillion using 7 percent discount rate when discounting past and future benefits to 2024.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cambium 2024 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2024 Cambium data set is the fifth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity. Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2024's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

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DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Site Rare Plant Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2022

Rare plants are monitored on the Hanford Site as distribution and abundance data of current and historic rare plant populations are necessary to make well-informed environmental and ecological resource management decisions. The Central Hanford Rare Plant Management Plan (DOE/RL-2021-35) guides rare plant monitoring methodology in the context of resource management at the Hanford Site. In 2022, a rare plant monitoring effort occurred on the portion of the Hanford Site (referred to herein as Central Hanford) managed by the U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL; Figure 1). The goal of this effort was to revisit known occurrences of upland rare plant populations on Central Hanford to improve baseline information on locations of rare plant populations on the Hanford Site. Rare upland plants were thoroughly surveyed in 2021 but unusually low precipitation that year limited germination of many upland annual plants. Surveys in 2022 focused on rare upland annual species after the Hanford Site received higher than average spring precipitation that was expected to increase germination. Rainfall from April 2022 to June 2022 was 76% higher than average; however, these months were also colder than average. Winter rainfall from January 2022 to March 2022 was 84% lower than average. The high spring precipitation in 2022 appears to have triggered the germination of some populations of rare upland annuals but the dry winter and cold spring may have inhibited others. Population stability, viability, and threats were evaluated and will be used to inform future management of rare plant species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validating Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (IBM) Tool (Final Report)

The project focused on validating the previously developed Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (GrSG IBM; LaGory et al. 2012, 2021). The objective was to transform this predictive, spatially and temporally explicit model into a portable resource to assist siting/resource managers in proactively assessing the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on the greater sage-grouse. Utilizing a bottom-up, individual-based approach, the GrSG IBM accounts for landscape context and species behavior, aiming to reduce uncertainty in estimating development impacts and support ecologically mindful land-based wind energy development. The validation effort covered approximately 6,540 km 2 near the Seven Mile Hill Wind Project in Wyoming. The GrSG IBM tool, built on the NetLogo platform (Tisue and Wilensky 2004), was executed over a 50-year period, with the analysis focusing on years following a 10-year initialization phase. Key results demonstrated the tool’s biological soundness across five key biological metrics: non-chick age class distribution (older than 10 weeks), adult sex ratio, life expectancy, population size, and overall population growth. For instance, the tool estimated that 58.6% of the non-chick population was reproductively immature, while the reference ranges from 51.4% to 57.8% (Patterson 1952, Rogers 1964). Experts confirmed the tool’s estimate was within a reasonable range for the species. The tool estimated average life expectancy of 1.43 years, while the reference ranges from 0.9 years to 1.1 years (Ammann 1957, Hamerstrom 1949). Experts also supported the model’s life-expectancy estimate as ecologically sound for the species in the study area. In terms of population change, the model estimated an annual shift between a 0.6% decline and a 1.0% increase over 50 years. While the reference suggests 2.9% annual decline in range-wide populations (Cortes et al. 2023), that includes many at-risk populations in South Dakota and Washington, for example. Our study area—in the northeastern part of Carbon County and western-edge of Albany County, Wyoming—is one of the remaining greater sage-grouse habitats supporting some of the most stable populations. Experts confirmed that the range of the annual population change spanning from a 0.6% decline to a 1.0% increase estimated by the tool was reasonable for our study area for this reason and confirmed that aligned with population estimates from existing studies on the greater sage-grouse and wind energy development in the study area (LeBeau et al. 2017a, Smith et al. 2024). Furthermore, the project showed that temporally explicit biological metrics generated by the GrSG IBM tool can complement the USGS’ Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET; Duchardt et al. 2021) by incorporating habitat restoration strategies into seasonal habitat suitability models to visualize population responses over time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗