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DOE OSTI2026

L-VISP: LSTM Visualization for Interpretable Symptom Prediction in Patient Cohorts

Symptom modelling in head and neck cancer is challenged by the complexity of heterogeneous patient data, leading to an interest in deep learning approaches. Although Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have shown great results in patient risk prediction, their low interpretability requires data modellers to collaborate with clinical experts to validate the results. We present L-VISP, a human–machine solution that uses visual analytics for LSTM modelling in clinical research. L-VISP uses custom visual encodings to make multiple LSTM variants interpretable, supporting a full range of analysis, from understanding model operations and evaluating performance to interpreting results in a clinical context. We evaluate L-VISP with data modellers and a clinical oncologist and present the takeaways from this multidisciplinary collaboration.

LSTM modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach

This study implements a data-intensive supervised ML approach through a quasi-experimental framework with the objective of quantifying the impact of oil and gas operator-specific proprietary data on ML-based predictive model performance relative to using oil and gas datasets that may be more commonly publicly available. The models are designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottom-hole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well completion attributes. Model performance is quantified on holdout test data to evaluate how each dataset affects resulting model variant performance.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2026

A buoyancy–shear–drag–scalar-based turbulence model for power-law acceleration-driven Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing

A previously developed phenomenological turbulence model for Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing based on a general buoyancy–shear–drag model [O. Schilling, “A buoyancy–shear–drag-based turbulence model for Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing,” Physica D 402, 132238 (2020)] is extended to include active or passive scalar mixing and power-law acceleration-driven Rayleigh–Taylor mixing. The buoyancy–shear–drag equations are coupled to a scalar variance equation that is used to define the molecular mixing parameter θ m , and when the scalar is active, modifies the Rayleigh–Taylor and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing layer growth parameters to depend on the asymptotic value of this parameter, θ mol . Here, the scalar variance equation is closed by algebraically or differentially modeling the scalar variance dissipation rate. Nonlinear analytical solutions of the model are obtained in the total and separate bubble and spike mixing layer width formulations with the algebraic scalar variance dissipation rate for each instability, which are then used to calibrate the mechanical and scalar equation coefficients to predict specific values of physical observables and molecular mixing parameters. Surrogate mechanical and scalar turbulent fields can be constructed by multiplying a presumed self-similar spatial profile by appropriate functions of the width and its time derivative, and of the scalar obtained by solving the ordinary differential model equations. The explicit modeling and solution of turbulent transport equations are not required. The bubble and spike mixing layer width and scalar variance equations are then solved numerically for constant-acceleration Rayleigh–Taylor, impulsively reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing, confirming that the prescribed level of molecular mixing is correctly predicted and illustrating the spatiotemporal evolution of the scalar fields.

Buoyancy–drag↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model Package Report: Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release Model (CASWR Model)

This document describes the implementation of a solid waste form release model in GoldSim for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) Update. This Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release model (CASWR model) was designed to generate deterministic radionuclide release rates for Hanford’s Central Plateau solid waste disposal sites using single realizations of release model coefficients. Five generalized waste form types are used for the conceptual model of waste release: surplus reactor block, cement, soil-debris, grouted residual waste, and ancillary equipment. The surplus reactor block waste form consists of radionuclide leaching from surplus production graphite reactor core blocks via unspecified processes (White et al., 1984 as cited in PNNL-15965). The cement waste form represents solidified wastes whose permeability is much lower than that of the surrounding soil. The soil-debris waste form type is defined as unconsolidated waste mixed with soil material. Tanks and canyon complexes comprise the grouted residual waste form such that their solid waste will be grouted and capped with a surface barrier at the completion of their cleanup. Finally, the ancillary equipment waste form constitutes contaminant releases from ancillary and auxiliary waste form residues associated with tank farms at closure. Individual sub-models are implemented to numerically represent a respective waste form within the CASWR Model: Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model, Cement Sub-model, SoilDebris Sub-model, Grouted Residual Waste Sub-model, and Ancillary Equipment Submodel. Advection is assumed to be the primary transport process governing the release of radionuclides in the Ancillary Equipment and Soil-Debris Sub-models. Diffusion is assumed to be the primary release process in the Grouted Residual Waste and Cement Sub-models. An unspecified zero-order release process is considered in the Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model due to the lack of information regarding actual processes involved in irradiated graphite leaching. The Surplus Reactor Block, Cement, and SoilDebris Sub-models were compared against analytical solutions (PNNL-11800, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the 200 Area Plateau of the Hanford Site). The agreement between results of these analytical solutions and the corresponding waste form models verified their correct implementation in GoldSim. A 1-D modeling abstraction approach for the Grouted Residual Waste and Ancillary Equipment Sub-models was adopted from existing Performance Assessment (PA) models. Despite the simplifications made in these sub-models, they were found to be appropriate representations of the waste forms, similar to what was used in the Waste Management Area C PA model (RPP-ENV-58782, Performance Assessment of Waste Management Area C, Hanford Site, Washington, Rev. 0). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most influential parameters in each waste form sub-model. Suggestions for considering pH-dependent and redox-dependent release mechanisms are formulated through the development of a conditional constant approach in GoldSim.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Curvature effects in the reaction-diffusion system governing frontal polymerization

Frontal polymerization is a fast and energy-efficient curing process of thermoset polymers involving the self-sustained propagation of a sharp front that transforms a liquid monomer or gel into a polymer. The temperature, speed, and geometry of the polymerization front are closely intertwined quantities that can affect the curing process and the mechanical properties of the polymer. This work investigates the effect of the front curvature on the front propagation speed based on a reaction-diffusion model. The proposed analytical relations between front speed and curvature are verified by finite element simulations and validated through experiments. The models show that a concave front has a higher front temperature and speed than its convex counterpart. When the curvature of a convex front reaches a critical value, the reaction can no longer be sustained, and the front is quenched. The relation between the speed of a steadily propagating front and its geometry is derived, showing good agreement with experimental observations. This study also provides analytical estimates of the thickness of the polymerization front and insight into the relationship between the front curvature and the kinetics of the exothermic reaction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Harmonic Infrared and Raman Spectra in Molecular Environments Using the Polarizable Embedding Model

We present a fully analytic approach to calculate infrared (IR) and Raman spectra of molecules embedded in complex molecular environments modeled using the fragment-based polarizable embedding (PE) model. We provide the theory for the calculation of analytic second-order geometric derivatives of molecular energies and first-order geometric derivatives of electric dipole moments and dipole–dipole polarizabilities within the PE model. The derivatives are implemented using a general open-ended response theory framework, thus allowing for an extension to higher-order derivatives. The embedding-potential parameters used to describe the environment in the PE model are derived through first-principles calculations, thus allowing a wide variety of systems to be modeled, including solvents, proteins, and other large and complex molecular environments. Here, we present proof-of-principle calculations of IR and Raman spectra of acetone in different solvents. This work is an important step toward calculating accurate vibrational spectra of molecules embedded in realistic environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Plasma heating and current sheet structure in anti-parallel magnetic reconnection

A theoretical model and an analytic theory of current sheet structure are presented for understanding anti-parallel driven magnetic reconnection in 2-1/2 dimension in collisionless plasmas. The theoretical model provides formulation to compute the current sheet y-profiles by specifying the profiles of electron and ion flow velocities V ex (x,y) and V ix (x,y). The current sheet solutions depend on the plasma density n in , merging magnetic field B 0 , ion velocity v i , and electron velocity ve in the upstream and the S evz =V ez /V dz parameter where V ez is the electron velocity accelerated by the reconnection electric field E z in the electron orbit meandering region, V dz ≃cE y /B x is the $\overrightarrow{E}$ × $\overrightarrow{B}$ drift velocity as electrons enter the orbit meandering region, B x is the merging magnetic field, and E y is the electrostatic electric field. With simplifying assumptions on the y-profiles of V ex and V ix , we have also developed an analytic theory of the current sheet structure. Analytic expressions for the anomalous resistivity, the electrostatic potential drop, and the maximum E y amplitude E max are obtained. The analytic results agree reasonably well with both the particle-in-cell simulation results and the numerical solutions of the theoretical model. The ions energy gain due to the potential drop is $∝B^2_0/n_{in}$. The electron energy gain is $∝(B^2_0 /8πn_{in})S_{evz}$. The $B^2_0/n_{in}$ scaling of the average ion and electron energy gains are consistent with laboratory experiments and space plasma observations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven learning of nonlocal physics from high-fidelity synthetic data

A key challenge to nonlocal models is the analytical complexity of deriving them from first principles, and frequently their use is justified a posteriori. Here, we extract nonlocal models from data, circumventing these challenges and providing data-driven justification for the resulting model form. Extracting data-driven surrogates is a major challenge for machine learning (ML) approaches, due to nonlinearities and lack of convexity — it is particularly challenging to extract surrogates which are provably well-posed and numerically stable. Our scheme not only yields a convex optimization problem, but also allows extraction of nonlocal models whose kernels may be partially negative while maintaining well-posedness even in small-data regimes. To achieve this, based on established nonlocal theory, we embed in our algorithm sufficient conditions on the non-positive part of the kernel that guarantee well-posedness of the learnt operator. These conditions are imposed as inequality constraints to meet the requisite conditions of the nonlocal theory. We demonstrate this workflow for a range of applications, including reproduction of manufactured nonlocal kernels; numerical homogenization of Darcy flow associated with a heterogeneous periodic microstructure; nonlocal approximation to high-order local transport phenomena; and approximation of globally supported fractional diffusion operators by truncated kernels.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

AIF for Vis (Active Inference for simulating human interpretation of data visualization) [SWR-26-084]

AIF for Vis contains the Active Inference models and analysis scripts used to study a simple visualization-interpretation task: estimating the average value of two bars in a bar chart. The work is a proof of concept for translating hypothesized cognitive strategies into executable, inspectable process models. We implement two idealized strategies inspired by dual-process accounts of visualization-aided decision making: *Fast model: a compressed, heuristic strategy that estimates the visual midpoint of the two bars and maintains a single belief over their average. *Slow model: a sequential, analytic strategy that estimates the two bar heights separately and maintains them in working memory before computing an average. Both models use a common Active-Inference-inspired framework for sequential perception, belief updating, action selection, and reporting. Their different internal representations produce distinct predicted vulnerabilities: *the Fast model is more susceptible to tick-salience bias; *the Slow model is more susceptible to working-memory decay. The repository includes the model implementations, scripts used for the experiments reported in the paper, precomputed trial-level results, and plotting scripts.

Goldwyn, Harrison [National Laboratory of the Rock↗

DOE OSTI2023

NRAP-Open-IAM Multisegmented Wellbore Reduced-Order Model: Improvement and Quality Assurance

The multisegmented wellbore model (MSW) semi-analytically estimates the amount of CO 2 and brine leakage from a leaking legacy well by segmenting it into intervals to simulate site-specific stratigraphic and hydrogeologic properties. The model is a component of the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), which was developed to perform risk assessment for geologic CO 2 storage. The new wellbore leakage model, which uses deep learning networks for a caprock segment, was developed to enhance the analytical MSW. The model was trained and validated using a synthetic data set of Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP) multiphase flow simulations from various geological, well attribute, and operational conditions to ensure its quality. The results demonstrate that the model is more accurate than the existing model in predicting the transport of two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) through the well. This report provides a detailed explanation of the model development and quality assurance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Glass formulation and composition optimization with property models: A review

Abstract Glass is a versatile material with a remarkable history and many practical applications. It plays a critical role in our everyday lives, the advancement of science, and the development of many technologies. The Edisonian type trial‐and‐error method was commonly used for conventional design of glass compositions, which was time‐consuming and costly. With the urgent need to develop new glass compositions for technology applications rapidly, it has become necessary to develop precise property models with predictive powers using large databases and efficient formulation approaches. This paper reviews the design of glass compositions using these analytical and numerical models of composition–structure–property relations of glasses, some based on large databases and machine learning approaches. Aspects of data collection, model fitting, feature extraction, model evaluation, and uncertainty quantification will be covered. Furthermore, advances in the glass optimization framework and available tools are summarized with examples. The outlook and perspective for further glass property model development and formulation approaches are discussed.

Lu, Xiaonan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models

Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Additively Manufactured Compliant Hybrid Gas Thrust Bearing for Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbomachinery: Experimental Evaluation and Fluid–Structure Model Predictions

This paper presents rotating test results and advances an analytical predictive fluid–structure model for a new type of gas-lubricated thrust bearing fabricated using direct metal laser melting. The bearing concept in this study is a compliant hybrid gas thrust bearing that uses external pressurization to increase load carrying capacity, where the testing campaign in this study was only focused on steady-state static performance. The need for the bearing concept comes from enabling highly efficient supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) turbomachinery by replacing oil-lubricated bearings with process gas lubrication. Leveraging the process gas of the turbomachine for bearing lubrication results in lowered bearing power loss, simplified mechanical design, and allows for novel oil-free hermetic drivetrains resulting in an efficient emission-free system. The new concept utilizes hydrostatic pressurization on individual tilting pads flexibly mounted with hermetic squeeze film dampers (HSFDs). This paper focuses on rotating tests of a 173 mm outer diameter gas thrust bearing in air up to 10 krpm and hydrostatic inlet pressures to 365 psi (2.52 MPa). The influence of thrust runner speed and bearing inlet pressure on force deflection characteristics and load carrying capability of the gas film were experimentally evaluated. This work also advances a predictive fluid–structure thrust bearing model using an isothermal ideal-gas-based compressible Reynolds flow equation directly coupled to a lumped stiffness element possessing axial and rotational degrees-of-freedom. The rotating testing demonstrated load capability of 1816 lbs (8.1 kN), which equates to a thrust bearing unit load of 67 psi (0.46 MPa). Gas film force–deflection curves reveal a nonlinear relationship between thrust load and film clearance. Comparison of film thickness values with the predictive model show good agreement under high load and inlet pressure, however deviate as load and pressure decrease. Load capability was shown to increase with increasing hydrostatic inlet pressure, while the increase in thrust runner speed revealed a small decrease in load capacity.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nature of the nonequilibrium phase transition in the non-Markovian driven Dicke model

The Dicke model famously exhibits a phase transition to a superradiant phase with a macroscopic population of photons and is realized in multiple settings in open quantum systems. In this paper, we study a variant of the Dicke model where the cavity mode is lossy due to the coupling to a Markovian environment while the atomic mode is coupled to a colored bath. We analytically investigate this model by inspecting its low-frequency behavior via the Schwinger-Keldysh field theory and carefully examine the nature of the corresponding superradiant phase transition. Integrating out the fast modes, we can identify a simple effective theory allowing us to derive analytical expressions for various critical exponents including the dynamical exponent. We find excellent agreement with previous numerical results when the non-Markovian bath is at zero temperature; however, contrary to these studies, our low-frequency approach reveals that the same exponents govern the critical behavior when the colored bath is at finite temperature unless the chemical potential is zero. Furthermore, we show that the superradiant phase transition is classical in nature, while it is genuinely nonequilibrium. In this work, we derive a fractional Langevin equation and conjecture the associated fractional Fokker-Planck equation that captures the system's long-time memory as well as its nonequilibrium behavior. Finally, we consider finite-size effects at the phase transition and identify the finite-size scaling exponents, unlocking a rich behavior in both statics and dynamics of the photonic and atomic observables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

The scoping, design, and plasma physics optimization of the Eos neutron source stellarator

On the path to a fusion pilot plant, Thea Energy plans to build Eos, a sub-breakeven, deuterium-deuterium, beam-target fusion, stellarator neutron source facility for producing tritium and other valuable radioisotopes. In this paper, a set of 1D plasma physics models are coupled and used to design the operating point of the facility and predict performance. At this foundational stage of the design, analytic and approximate models are sufficient to capture the leading-order effects, and fast enough to run in the inner loop of an optimizer. Higher-fidelity analyses will follow. Models of 1D profile-dependent neutral beam stopping, ion beam slowing down, beam-target fusion, electron-ion classical heat transfer, energy confinement (ISS04), beam pressure, beam heating of ions and electrons, beam-beam fusion fraction, and neutral beam injection and gyrotron heating electrical efficiencies are included. A numerical optimizer is used to determine the minimum required facility electric power to generate tritium at a given rate. A potentially advantageous regime is described in which modern precisely-quasisymmetric stellarators, new high-temperature superconductors, ITER-derived neutral beam injection, and new high-frequency gyrotrons enable a suitible target plasma with hot electrons, cold ions, peaked density and temperature profiles, and high beam-injected ion density. It appears possible at this time for a facility with a medium-scale and medium-strength stellarator whose required facility electric power is less than 40 MW to produce $2.5\times 10^{17}$ neutrons s -1 for the production of radioisotopes. With the addition of a tritium breeding blanket, such a facility could produce 0.2 grams d -1 or 70 grams yr -1 of tritium.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Utilizing Temperature and Brine Inflow Measurements to Constrain Reservoir Parameters During a Salt Heater Test

Brine availability in salt has multiple implications for the safety and design of a nuclear waste storage facility. Brine availability includes both the distribution and transport of brine through a damaged zone around boreholes or drifts excavated into the salt. Coupled thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical processes taking place within heated bedded salt are complex; as part of DECOVALEX 2023 Task E this study takes a parsimonious modeling approach utilizing analytical and numerical one-dimensional simulations to match field measurements of temperature and brine inflow around a heater. The one-dimensional modeling results presented arrive at best-fit thermal conductivity of intact salt, and the permeability and porosity of damaged salt of 5.74 W/m∙K, 10 –17 m 2 , and ≈ 0.02, respectively.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering Virtual Special Issue on Recent Advances in Biomass Characterization and Modeling

Recognizing the importance of biomass characterization and modeling, a virtual special issue (VSI) entitled Recent Advances in Biomass Characterization and Modeling was organized to showcase the recent contributions to this emerging field. This VSI features contributions from leading scientists in the biorefinery field, intending to provide the readers with the latest advances in analytical methodology and modeling to characterize biomass feedstocks and biomass-derived products. Further, the VSI contains perspectives and research articles. Advanced analytical methods that measure the mechanical, chemical, physical, biological, and other properties of biomass and biomass pyrolysis products are described along with their application’s limitations in two perspectives. Biomass is a multicomponent/multiscale, complex, nonconducting, and highly heterogeneous material; thus, it could be problematic for many characterization techniques. Traditional biomass analysis tools that are slow, laborious, and generally require harsh reagents have been replaced or supplemented by simpler and more rapid chromatographic and spectroscopic approaches such as GC-MS, HPLC, FTIR, Raman, and NMR spectroscopies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Workforce planning: a review of methodologies

Workforce planning deals with determining the number of employees and associated skills necessary to meet the future operational needs of an organization. A workforce system consists of six elements: recruitment, attrition, promotion, training, retention, and scheduling. Historically, several workforce modeling and analysis methodologies have been developed to capture these elements. This paper reviews the results of workforce and manpower models published within peer-reviewed literature between 1959 and 2021 to provide an in-depth analysis of current models. The focus of this review is on analytical, simulation, and empirical models found in literature that were collected based on a citation requirement and keyword search criteria. Results demonstrate the trends in workforce modeling research and discuss the common uses of each model type and the advantages/disadvantages related to each model. Based on the common attributes of workforce systems, the discussion focuses on the most frequently used model type for each element and the best use for each model. Lastly, recommendations are made for the development of workforce models that allow the most comprehensive view of the workforce systems of the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗