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Characterizing forecastability of wind sites in the United States

With the rapid growth of wind power, managing its uncertainty and variability becomes critical in power system operations. Wind forecasting is one of the enablers to partially tackle challenges associated with wind power uncertainty. To improve the 'forecasting ability', defined as forecastability, different forecasting methods have been developed to assist grid integration of wind energy. However, forecasting performance not only relies on the power of forecasting models, but is also related to local weather conditions and (known as wind characteristics) wind farm properties. In this study, geospatial and instance spatial distributions of six wind characteristics and two forecasting error metrics are first analyzed based on 126,000 + wind sites in the United States. Forecasts in different look-ahead times are generated by using a machine learning based multi-model forecasting framework model and the Weather Research and Forecasting model. A forecastability quantification method is developed by characterizing the relationship between forecastability and wind series entropy using three regression methods, i.e., linear approximation, locally weighted scatterplot smoother nonlinear nonparametric regression, and quantile regression. It is found that the forecastability of a wind site can be successfully characterized by wind series characteristics, thereby providing valuable information at different stages of wind energy projects.

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Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

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Observed impacts of large wind farms on grassland carbon cycling

Deployment of wind energy is an essential renewable energy source that mitigates climate change and reduces air pollution. Over the last several decades, wind energy development has increased worldwide, expanding from ~20 to ~900 GW (gigawatt) during 2001-2022. Nonetheless, researchers have identified unintended consequences of wind energy on microclimate via turbine-altered surface-atmosphere exchanges of energy, momentum, mass, and trace gases. Based on multi-source observations and models, researchers also have drawn some conclusions that wind farms could warm the land surface, especially at night, at regional and continental scales. Consequently, altered microclimates at wind farms may affect vegetation productivity and carbon sequestration, two critically important ecosystem services related to carbon dynamics; however, such potential impacts and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. Wind energy deployment is increasing globally to meet carbon neutrality goals, with upscaling of onshore wind power capacity projected to grow from 542 GW in 2018 to 1787 and 5044 GW by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Furthermore, increased demand for wind energy deployment may lead to much larger wind farms in open, expansive landscapes. In turn, a large array of geographically clustered wind turbines could collectively modify local microclimate and amplify turbine-atmosphere interactions, which, if large enough, may produce detectable impacts on ecosystem dynamics. Thus, identifying and quantifying the potential impacts of wind farms on carbon-related ecosystem services may facilitate sustainable wind energy development globally.

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Climate change impacts on wind power generation

Wind energy is a virtually carbon-free and pollution-free electricity source, with global wind resources greatly exceeding electricity demand. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of >20% from 2000 to 2019 and is projected to increase by a further 50% by the end of 2023. Here, in this Review, we describe the factors that dictate the wind resource magnitude and variability and illustrate the tools and techniques that are being used to make projections of wind resources and wind turbine operating conditions. Natural variability due to the action of internal climate modes appears to dominate over global-warming-induced non-stationarity over most areas with large wind energy installations or potential. However, there is evidence for increased wind energy resources by the end of the current century in northern Europe and the US Southern Great Plains. New technology trends are changing the sensitivity of wind energy to global climate non-stationarity and, thus, present new challenges and opportunities for innovative research. The evolution of climate modelling to increasingly address mesoscale processes is providing improved projections of both wind resources and wind turbine operating conditions, and will contribute to continued reductions in the levelized cost of energy from wind power generation.

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Offshore lightning more active and intense in U.S. East Coast wind areas than in North Sea

Fast winds over open areas off the U.S. East Coast resulted in many offshore areas being opened for wind power deployment. Yet lightning is active in this same general area. Lightning damage has been noted as the leading cause of unplanned downtime of wind farms. Here we use lightning observations from 2020–2022 to quantify lightning activity—U.S. East Coast Wind Lease and Wind Planning areas received about 14-times the lightning strokes and about 18-times the energy transfer compared to the operational wind farms in the North Sea. A strong north-south U.S. gradient of lightning exists : low off the coast of Maine, growing higher off Chesapeake Bay, and high south of Virginia. Very high lightning activity also occurs about 250 km from the U.S. coastline, which is 50–100 km outside currently designated Wind Areas but likely relevant to planning floating wind farms further from shore. International lightning protection standards, such as IEC 614200-24, use lightning stroke density and turbine top-height to estimate damage to wind turbines, but it remains unclear if such standards could protect U.S. offshore wind turbines in active lightning areas where the turbine top-height can be 100 m taller than the next tallest object for tens to hundreds of kilometers. This analysis suggests U.S. East Coast offshore wind farms will be subjected to much higher lightning stroke and lightning energy densities than the North Sea counterparts. Preparing the turbine designs in anticipation of these more active U.S. lightning risks will help foster wind’s growing contribution to a reliable and resilient low-carbon energy future.

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Control Co-Design of Wind Turbines

Wind energy is recognized worldwide as cost-effective and environmentally friendly, and it is among the fastest-growing sources of electrical energy. To further decrease the cost of wind energy, wind turbines are being designed at ever-larger scales. To expand the deployment of wind energy, wind turbines are also being designed on floating platforms for placement in deep-water locations offshore. Both larger-scale and floating wind turbines pose challenges because of their greater structural loads and deflections. Complex, large-scale systems such as modern wind turbines increasingly require a control co-design approach, whereby the system design and control design are performed in a more integrated fashion. This article reviews recent developments in control co-design of wind turbines. We provide an overview of wind turbine design objectives and constraints, issues in the design of key wind turbine components, modeling of the wind turbine and environment, and controller coupling issues. Wind turbine control functions and the integration of control design in co-design are detailed with a focus on co-design compatible control approaches.

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U.S. Wind Energy Manufacturing and Supply Chain: A Competitiveness Analysis

The goal of the project was to develop a greater understanding of the key factors determining wind energy component manufacturing costs and pricing on a global basis in order to enhance the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers, and to reduce installed systems cost. Multiple stakeholders including DOE, turbine OEMs, and large component manufactures will all benefit by better understanding the factors determining domestic competitiveness in the emerging offshore and next generation land-based wind industries. Major objectives of this project were to: 1. Carry out global cost and process comparisons for 5MW jacket foundations, blades, towers, and permanent magnet generators; 2. Assess U.S. manufacturers’ competitiveness and potential for cost reduction; 3. Facilitate informed decision-making on investments in U.S. manufacturing; 4. Develop an industry scorecard representing the readiness of the U.S. manufacturers’ to produce components for the next generations of wind turbines, nominally 3MW land-based and 5MW offshore; 5. Disseminate results through the GLWN Wind Supply Chain GIS Map, a free website that is the most comprehensive public database of U.S. wind energy suppliers; 6. Identify areas and develop recommendations to DOE on potential R&D areas to target for increasing domestic manufacturing competitiveness, per DOE’s Clean Energy Manufacturing Initiative (CEMI). Lists of Deliverables 1. Cost Breakdown Competitive Analyses of four product categories: tower, jacket foundation, blade, and permanent magnet (PM) generator. The cost breakdown for each component includes a complete Bill of Materials with net weights; general process steps for labor; and burden adjusted by each manufacturer for their process categories of SGA (sales general and administrative), engineering, logistics cost to a common U.S. port, and profit. 2. Value Stream Map Competitiveness Analysis: A tool that illustrates both information and material flow from the point of getting a customer order at the manufacturing plant; to the orders being forwarded by the manufacturing plant to the material suppliers; to the material being received at the manufacturing plant and processed through the system; to the final product being shipped to the Customer. 3. Competitiveness Scorecard: GLWN developed a Wind Industry Supply Chain Scorecard that reflects U.S. component manufacturers’ readiness to supply the next generation wind turbines, 3MW and 5MW, for land-based and offshore applications. 4. Wind Supply Chain Database & Map: Expand the current GLWN GIS Wind Supply Chain Map to include offshore elements. This is an on-line, free access, wind supply chain map that provides a platform for identifying active and emerging suppliers for the land-based and offshore wind industry, including turbine component manufacturers and wind farm construction service suppliers.

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National Wind Technology Center-Characterization of Atmospheric Conditions

Data provided by the instrumentation located at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) is compiled below for the purposes of characterizing the atmospheric operating conditions at the National Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL) wind site. Conditions are presented conditioned on month of the year to show seasonal variation, and based on characteristic quantities seen in the atmospheric flow including, bulk wind speed, direction, and atmospheric stability. All data reported and analyzed in the following document were collected from instrumentation mounted on the 135 m-tall masts erected at the NWTC near Boulder, Colorado. Each of the two met-masts (named M4 and M5) were sited specifically to measure the inflow wind to several of the utility-scale turbines at the NWTC. The construction, operation, and maintenance of the masts has been supported since their commissioning in 2011 by the Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Wind and Water Power Program. Data from the masts are publicly available for download or basic visualization, hosted on NREL's website (https://nwtc.nrel.gov/135mData). Data from the masts have been used in the past for a wide range of projects including wind turbine power performance measurements, high fidelity model development and validation, and atmospheric science research. An interactive visualization platform has been developed on NREL's Open Energy Information platform and can be used to reproduce many of the graphics included in the current work. This report describes in detail the atmospheric conditions recorded by M5, the inflow mast for the DOE-owned GE 1.5 MW wind turbine. The report focuses on data recorded from August 2012 to May 2018 and includes: an introduction to the wind climate at the NWTC; a physical description of the met masts; a review of installed instrumentation; and data collection, processing, and quality control methods. In addition to a concise description of the instrumentation from the met masts and the data channels they provide, this report characterizes the behavior of the atmospheric resource first in a cumulative sense, discussing mainly the distributions wind speeds, flow directions and thermodynamic properties at several heights along the towers. Periodicity in atmospheric conditions is then detailed through analysis of diurnal and annual cycles of the data streams. Periods of both low turbulence and extreme atmospheric events that are of interest in terms of wind turbine operation and wind energy research are detailed in the final chapter of this report. Low turbulence events are somewhat rare at the NWTC and are of interest from the perspective of validating the operation of new wind turbine and blade designs. Similarly, the NTWC is known for a relatively higher rate of occurrence of extreme weather events.

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WGRID-49 GMLC Project Report: Understanding the Role of Short-Term Energy Storage and Large Motor Loads for Active Power Controls by Wind Power

The GMLC project is built upon the results of pioneering research funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)—in collaboration with the Electric Power Research Institute and the University of Colorado—on active power controls (APC) by wind power during 2013–2016. The studies detailed in the first APC by wind power project have shown tremendous promise for the potential for wind power plants to provide APC. The goal of this project was to continue the previous work and develop and validate coordinated controls of APC by wind generation, short-term energy storage, and large industrial motor drives for providing various types of ancillary services to the grid and minimizing loading impacts on wind turbines (e.g., drivetrains), thereby reducing operation-and-maintenance (O&M) costs and subsequently reducing the cost of energy generated by wind power. This work used the $30 million, multiyear DOE investments and the unique characteristics of NREL’s existing National Wind Technology Center test site, including a combination of multimegawatt utility-scale wind turbine generators, a 1-MW/1-MWh battery energy storage system (BESS), industrial variable-frequency motor drives, a 1-MW solar photovoltaic (PV) array, and a 7-MVA controllable grid interface. This combination of technologies allows for the optimization, testing, and demonstration of various types of APC by wind power in coordination with other generation sources (including regenerative loads) and energy storage to allow for enhancing or, in some cases, substituting the APC services by wind power and reducing impacts on wind turbine component life and thus increasing the availability and reliability of the power supply from wind

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Risk Assessment for Marine Vessel Traffic and Wind Energy Development in the Atlantic

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is initiating leasing of the seabed for offshore wind energy development on the outer continental shelf (OCS) in the Atlantic from Maine to Florida, with initial development planned for a series of Wind Energy Areas (WEAs) designated by the Department of Interior. Additional wind areas are under development and are currently considered to be Wind Call Areas (WCAs), leasing areas, and other set asides. Some of the proposed sites are located at or near the entrances to major ports, others are located at the seaward terminus of existing Traffic Separation Schemes (TSS), and many of the wind areas occupy locations along historical shipping routes. The siting of offshore wind farms has the potential to affect existing shipping along the Atlantic Coast; modifications to safe-access routes may be required. The United States Coast Guard (USCG) has the authority to ensure navigational safety in U.S. waters. The USCG has undertaken the Atlantic Coast Port Access Study (ACPARS) to assess future port access and navigation needs for the Atlantic coast, at a time when the mix of shipping routes and vessels are likely to change due to factors such as the widening of the Panama Canal and opening of the Arctic Ocean to shipping. The presence of wind turbines off the Atlantic coast has the potential to affect shipping routes and activities. In order to safely incorporate the presence of offshore wind farms into ACPARS, the USCG requires information on the following: the effects of offshore renewable energy infrastructure on potential traffic density; the impacts of offshore wind infrastructure on shipping traffic including rerouting, funneling, and obstructions to navigation; and whether changes to safe access routes for vessels are needed with the installation of offshore wind farms, including modifications to fairways or TSSs. BOEM entered into an Interagency Agreement in August 2012 with the US Department of Energy (DOE) to provide risk assessment expertise to the USCG development of ACPARS and BOEM’s OCS leasing. DOE assigned Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to provide an assessment of navigational safety risks (including collision, contact, grounding, and stranding). PNNL structured the project around several activities: 1) acquisition and processing of Automated Identification System (AIS) data; 2) geospatial analysis to elucidate historical shipping routes; 3) development of a data-driven numerical model to predict vessel movements in the presence of offshore wind farms; 4) enlisting expertise in navigation from an experts’ panel; 5) assessment of navigational risks from the presence of offshore wind farms; and 6) recommendations for changes to the navigation system to accommodate those changes. This report focuses on the activities carried out by PNNL, in close coordination with BOEM and USCG, from August 2012 to November 2013, and indicates the priority actions for additional enhancement to the modeling system to be carried out from December 2013 through November 2014. The body of the report briefly introduces each step of the process, and reports on notable outcomes. Detailed descriptions, computations, and figures that represent each step are included in ten technical appendices.

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Workshop on Research Needs for Offshore Wind Resource Characterization: Summary Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office convened “Research Needs for Offshore Wind Resource Characterization,” a workshop in Alexandria, Virginia, on March 5–6, 2019. Wind resource characterization includes meteorological information to estimate annual energy production, forecasts to ensure economical and reliable wind energy integration, and turbulence characterization for developing and applying design load criteria. The purpose of the workshop was to bring together representatives from the offshore wind industry and marine environmental research community to share views on meteorological and oceanographic information needed to successfully develop offshore wind projects in the United States. It was also intended to identify current industry knowledge gaps that can be effectively addressed by researchers with current and emerging observational and modeling tools. The workshop was in response to one of the key challenges articulated in the National Offshore Wind Strategy: reducing costs and technology risks through improved offshore wind power resource and site characterization. The strategy noted that “a better understanding of the unique meteorological, ocean, and seafloor conditions across U.S. offshore wind development sites will allow for optimized designs, reduced capital costs, greater safety, and less uncertainty in preconstruction energy estimates, resulting in reduced financing costs.” The workshop built on the National Offshore Wind Strategy, as well as previous workshops and reports that have informed this research area, providing the basis for future investment in offshore resource characterization research. The 1.5-day workshop involved 55 participants with comparable numbers of representatives from industry, academia, national laboratories, and federal agencies. The meeting included a small number of participants from Europe. The structure was to seed discussions with presentations by national and international leaders in their respective disciplines, followed by discussion among all participants. Discussion began with current industry needs and gaps for metocean information from the European perspective as well as considering unique aspects of the U.S. offshore environment. Those topics were followed by discussion of information needs specifically to address offshore wind system design requirements. These sessions provided the context for the third primary area of discussion, which was current capabilities and challenges for the research community in providing the needed information. This input will inform DOE, other state and federal agencies, research institutions, and industry stakeholders in making decisions about potential research and development (R&D) efforts supporting the development of offshore wind energy in the United States.

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Simulated wind farm wake sensitivity to configuration choices in the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.8.1

Wakes from wind farms can extend over 50 km downwind in stably stratified conditions. These wakes can undermine power production at downwind turbines, adversely impacting revenue. As such, wind farm wake impacts must be considered in wind resource assessments, especially in regions of dense wind farm development. The open-source Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model includes a wind farm parameterization to estimate wind farm wake effects, but model configuration choices can influence the resulting predictions of wind farm wakes. These choices include vertical resolution, horizontal resolution, and whether or not to include the addition of turbulent kinetic energy generated by the rotating wind turbines. Despite the sensitivity to model configuration, no clear guidance currently exists for these options. Here we compare simulated wind farm wakes produced by varying model configurations with meteorological observations near a land-based wind farm in flat terrain over several diurnal cycles. A WRF configuration comprised of horizontal resolutions of 3 km or 1 km paired with a vertical resolution of 10 m provides the most accurate representation of wind farm wake effects, such as the correct surface warming and elevated wind speed deficit. The inclusion of turbine-generated turbulence is also critical to produce accurate surface warming and should not be omitted.

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Investigation of onshore wind farm wake recovery with in situ aircraft measurements during AWAKEN

The share of wind power for electricity supply is increasing worldwide. This highly variable resource requires the improved prediction of power output for network stability. The interaction between wind farm wakes and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) introduces uncertainties in power production that warrant detailed investigation. The flow downwind of wind farms is characterized by a reduction in wind speed and an increase in turbulence, which both vary with atmospheric conditions. During the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN), the Technische Universität Braunschweig conducted measurement flights with a research aircraft upwind and downwind of onshore wind farms in the southern Great Plains in Oklahoma in the USA. This study utilizes data from 20 flights conducted at approximately hub height in September 2023 to investigate the wind field variability downwind of the wind farms and vertical profiles to observe atmospheric stratification. The flights were aligned perpendicular to the main wind direction downwind of the King Plains and Armadillo Flats wind farms. Additionally, lidar data from both upwind and downwind ground-based measurement sites and sonic anemometer data were used for comprehensive analysis. Results indicate that under stable ABL conditions, the wake persists at greater downwind distances with a higher velocity deficit in the wake relative to the undisturbed flow compared to unstable stratification. In homogeneous terrain under stable conditions, wake recovery to 95 % occurs between a distance of 4.5 and 9 km downwind of the wind farm. In the semi-complex terrain characterized by shallow hills, slopes, and valleys, the wake exhibits a higher velocity deficit compared to homogeneous terrain, while in some cases the wake was amplified by the terrain resulting in higher velocity deficit 10 km downwind of the wind farm compared to the measurements closer to the wind farm. The turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and “TKE difference” was found to be a valuable measure in understanding wakes in a semi-complex terrain, showing a clear wake recovery and formation depending on the stratification of the ABL.

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Assessing variability of wind speed: comparison and validation of 27 methodologies

Because wind resources vary from year to year, the intermonthly and interannual variability (IAV) of wind speed is a key component of the overall uncertainty in the wind resource assessment process, thereby creating challenges for wind farm operators and owners. We present a critical assessment of several common approaches for calculating variability by applying each of the methods to the same 37-year monthly wind-speed and energy-production time series to highlight the differences between these methods. We then assess the accuracy of the variability calculations by correlating the wind-speed variability estimates to the variabilities of actual wind farm energy production. We recommend the robust coefficient of variation (RCoV) for systematically estimating variability, and we underscore its advantages as well as the importance of using a statistically robust and resistant method. Using normalized spread metrics, including RCoV, high variability of monthly mean wind speeds at a location effectively denotes strong fluctuations of monthly total energy generation, and vice versa. Meanwhile, the wind-speed IAVs computed with annual-mean data fail to adequately represent energy-production IAVs of wind farms. Finally, we find that estimates of energy-generation variability require 10±3 years of monthly mean wind-speed records to achieve a 90 % statistical confidence. This paper also provides guidance on the spatial distribution of wind-speed RCoV.

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Observations and simulations of a wind farm modifying a thunderstorm outflow boundary

Abstract. On 18 June 2019, National Weather Service (NWS) radar reflectivity data indicated the presence of thunderstorm-generated outflow propagating east-southeastward near Lubbock, Texas. A section of the outflow boundary encountered a wind farm and then experienced a notable reduction in ground-relative velocity, suggesting that interactions with the wind farm impacted the outflow boundary progression. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model and its wind farm parameterization to address the extent to which wind farms can modify the near-surface environment of thunderstorm outflow boundaries. We conduct two simulations of the June 2019 outflow event: one containing the wind farm and one without. We specifically investigate the outflow speed of the section of the boundary that encounters the wind farm and the associated impacts on near-surface wind speed, moisture, temperature, and changes to precipitation features as the storm and associated outflow pass over the wind farm domain. The NWS radar and nearby West Texas Mesonet surface stations provide observations for validation of the simulations. The presence of the wind farm in the simulation clearly slows the progress of the outflow boundary by over 20 km h -1 , similar to what was observed. Simulated perturbations of surface wind speed, temperature, and moisture associated with outflow passage were delayed by up to 6 min when the wind farm was present in the simulation compared to the simulation without the wind farm. However, impacts on precipitation were localized and transient, with no change to total accumulation across the domain.

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Long-term uncertainty quantification in WRF-modeled offshore wind resource off the US Atlantic coast

Uncertainty quantification of long-term modeled wind speed is essential to ensure stakeholders can best leverage wind resource numerical data sets. Offshore, this need is even stronger given the limited availability of observations of wind speed at heights relevant for wind energy purposes and the resulting heavier relative weight of numerical data sets for wind energy planning and operational projects. In this analysis, we consider the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 21-year updated numerical offshore data set for the US East Coast and provide a methodological framework to leverage both floating lidar and near-surface buoy observations in the region to quantify uncertainty in the modeled hub-height wind resource. We first show how using a numerical ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in modeled wind speed is insufficient to fully capture the model deviation from real-world observations. Next, we train and validate a random forest to vertically extrapolate near-surface wind speed to hub height using the available short-term lidar data sets in the region. We then apply this model to vertically extrapolate the long-term near-surface buoy wind speed observations to hub height so that they can be directly compared to the long-term numerical data set. We find that the mean 21-year uncertainty in 140 m hourly average wind speed is slightly lower than 3 m s -1 (roughly 30m% of the mean observed wind speed) across the considered region. Atmospheric stability is strictly connected to the modeled wind speed uncertainty, with stable conditions associated with an uncertainty which is, on average, about 20 % larger than the overall mean uncertainty.

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Comparison of Mesoscale Model Setups for Offshore Wind Resource Assessment: A New Jersey Case Study

As the offshore wind energy industry begins to emerge on the U.S. northeast coast, there is an urgent need for an accurate characterization of the offshore wind resource. The offshore regime features various resource characteristics not seen onshore, including frequent coastal low-level jets, non-steady surface conditions (e.g. waves), complex air-sea and land-sea interactions, and coastal mesoscale circulations (e.g. sea breeze). An accurate characterization of these phenomena in mesoscale models is critical to support accurate energy production estimates and forecasting for future offshore wind farms. However, a robust validation of mesoscale model performance in the offshore U.S. has been limited due to sparse data and difficulty obtaining offshore measurements. Consequently, it is unclear how mesoscale models perform offshore and which suite of parameterizations and input data are best suited for accurate resource characterization. To begin addressing this knowledge gap, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, in collaboration with the Rutgers Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, conducted a mesoscale model validation campaign in the offshore environment. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was assessed and the New Jersey offshore coastal area served as the validation domain. An ensemble of WRF simulations conducted over a one-year period sampled from a range of model setups, including different reanalysis and forecast data inputs, sea surface temperature data inputs, planetary boundary layer parameterizations, and WRF versions. The performance of each ensemble member was validated against a network of observations including offshore floating lidars, coastal met towers, offshore platform measurements, and offshore buoys. Model performance was assessed on annual, seasonal, and diurnal scales with particular emphasis on the vertical wind speed profile and temperature stratification. Preliminary results from this validation work will be presented here. The key WRF inputs and parameters driving changes in the modeled wind resource will be discussed and preliminary recommendations on WRF setups for offshore wind resource modeling will be proposed. The application of this validation exercise to other proposed offshore wind energy areas in the U.S. will also be discussed. mesoscale circulations (e.g. sea breeze). An accurate characterization of these phenomena in mesoscale models is critical to support accurate energy production estimates and forecasting for future offshore wind farms. However, a robust validation of mesoscale model performance in the offshore U.S. has been limited due to sparse data and difficulty obtaining offshore measurements. Consequently, it is unclear how mesoscale models perform offshore and which suite of parameterizations and input data are best suited for accurate resource characterization. To begin addressing this knowledge gap, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, in collaboration with the Rutgers Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, conducted a mesoscale model validation campaign in the offshore environment. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was assessed and the New Jersey offshore coastal area served as the validation domain. An ensemble of WRF simulations conducted over a one-year period sampled from a range of model setups, including different reanalysis and forecast data inputs, sea surface temperature data inputs, planetary boundary layer parameterizations, and WRF versions. The performance of each ensemble member was validated against a network of observations including offshore floating lidars, coastal met towers, offshore platform measurements, and offshore buoys. Model performance was assessed on annual, seasonal, and diurnal scales with particular emphasis on the vertical wind speed profile and temperature stratification. Preliminary results from this validation work will be presented here. The key WRF inputs and parameters driving changes in the modeled wind resource will be discussed and preliminary recommendations on WRF setups for offshore wind resource modeling will be proposed. The application of this validation exercise to other proposed offshore wind energy areas in the U.S. will also be discussed.

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Capacity Density Considerations for Floating Offshore Wind Farms in Ultradeep Waters

Capacity density describes the concentration of wind energy development in an area and is often specified in terms of megawatts-per-square-kilometer (MW/km2). Understanding capacity density trends in wind energy projects helps to inform both energy system and spatial planning efforts. Borrman et al. (2018) and Mulas Hernando et al. (2023) analyze capacity density trends for fixed-bottom offshore wind farms in Europe and the United States, respectively, and Cooperman et al. (2022) explores how floating offshore wind mooring technology choices may impact wind plant layout through setbacks from lease area boundaries in waters up to 1,300 m deep. Technical challenges facing floating offshore wind development in ultradeep waters (beyond 1,300 m) could impact achievable capacity densities, with potential implications to marine spatial planning and project economics. When compared to fixed-bottom commercial-scale wind farms, mooring system footprints from floating offshore wind systems can constrain capacity density in some circumstances. In this study, we conduct an initial investigation of how taut mooring configurations may constrain floating offshore wind turbine placement and estimate capacity density for representative floating wind plants in generic lease areas. In addition, we explore floating wind plant capacity density drivers in ultradeep waters by characterizing area utilization for a range of lease area characteristics. This analysis highlights the primary challenges that floating offshore wind systems may encounter in achieving capacity densities comparable to commercial-scale fixed-bottom projects at ultradeep water depths, from a technical standpoint.

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