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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data

Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental dynamics, accurate prediction from direct observations becomes challenging. In such cases a more effective approach is to cast statistics of interest as solutions to Feynman-Kac equations (partial differential equations). Here, we develop an approach to solve Feynman-Kac equations by training neural networks on short-trajectory data. Our approach is based on a Markov approximation but otherwise avoids assumptions about the underlying model and dynamics. This makes it applicable to treating complex computational models and observational data. Additionally, we illustrate the advantages of our method using a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization, and this analysis motivates an adaptive sampling strategy that allows on-the-fly identification of and addition of data to regions important for predicting the statistics of interest. Finally, we demonstrate that we can compute accurate statistics for a 75-dimensional model of sudden stratospheric warming. This system provides a stringent test bed for our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical Analysis of the Ultrafaint Dwarf Galaxy Grus II. Signature of High-mass Stellar Nucleosynthesis

We present a detailed abundance analysis of the three brightest member stars at the top of the giant branch of the ultrafaint dwarf (UFD) galaxy Grus II. All stars exhibit a higher than expected [Mg/Ca] ratio compared to metal-poor stars in other UFD galaxies and in the Milky Way (MW) halo. Nucleosynthesis in high-mass ( 20 M ⊙) core-collapse supernovae has been shown to create this signature. The abundances of this small sample (three) stars suggests the chemical enrichment of Grus II could have occurred through substantial high-mass stellar evolution, and is consistent with the framework of a top-heavy initial mass function. However, with only three stars it cannot be ruled out that the abundance pattern is the result of a stochastic chemical enrichment at early times in the galaxy. The most metal-rich of the three stars also possesses a small enhancement in rapid neutron-capture (r-process) elements. The abundance pattern of the r-process elements in this star matches the scaled r-process pattern of the solar system and r-process enhanced stars in other dwarf galaxies and in the MW halo, hinting at a common origin for these elements across a range of environments. All current proposed astrophysical sites of r-process element production are associated with high-mass stars, thus the possible top-heavy initial mass function of Grus II would increase the likelihood of any of these events occurring. The time delay between the α and r-process element enrichment of the galaxy favors a neutron star merger as the origin of the r-process elements in Grus II.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Study of sensor spectral responses and data processing algorithms and architectures for onboard feature identification

A computational model of the deterministic and stochastic processes involved in remote sensing is used to study spectral feature identification techniques for real-time onboard processing of data acquired with advanced earth-resources sensors. Preliminary results indicate that: Narrow spectral responses are advantageous; signal normalization improves mean-square distance (MSD) classification accuracy but tends to degrade maximum-likelihood (MLH) classification accuracy; and MSD classification of normalized signals performs better than the computationally more complex MLH classification when imaging conditions change appreciably from those conditions during which reference data were acquired. The results also indicate that autonomous categorization of TM signals into vegetation, bare land, water, snow and clouds can be accomplished with adequate reliability for many applications over a reasonably wide range of imaging conditions. However, further analysis is required to develop computationally efficient boundary approximation algorithms for such categorization.

Huck, F. O.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Maggioni, V.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Unsupervised Detection of Planetary Craters by a Marked Point Process

With the launch of several planetary missions in the last decade, a large amount of planetary images is being acquired. Preferably, automatic and robust processing techniques need to be used for data analysis because of the huge amount of the acquired data. Here, the aim is to achieve a robust and general methodology for crater detection. A novel technique based on a marked point process is proposed. First, the contours in the image are extracted. The object boundaries are modeled as a configuration of an unknown number of random ellipses, i.e., the contour image is considered as a realization of a marked point process. Then, an energy function is defined, containing both an a priori energy and a likelihood term. The global minimum of this function is estimated by using reversible jump Monte-Carlo Markov chain dynamics and a simulated annealing scheme. The main idea behind marked point processes is to model objects within a stochastic framework: Marked point processes represent a very promising current approach in the stochastic image modeling and provide a powerful and methodologically rigorous framework to efficiently map and detect objects and structures in an image with an excellent robustness to noise. The proposed method for crater detection has several feasible applications. One such application area is image registration by matching the extracted features.

Troglio, G.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Probabilistic Framework for the Validation and Certification of Computer Simulations

The paper presents a methodology for quantifying, propagating, and managing the uncertainty in the data required to initialize computer simulations of complex phenomena. The purpose of the methodology is to permit the quantitative assessment of a certification level to be associated with the predictions from the simulations, as well as the design of a data acquisition strategy to achieve a target level of certification. The value of a methodology that can address the above issues is obvious, specially in light of the trend in the availability of computational resources, as well as the trend in sensor technology. These two trends make it possible to probe physical phenomena both with physical sensors, as well as with complex models, at previously inconceivable levels. With these new abilities arises the need to develop the knowledge to integrate the information from sensors and computer simulations. This is achieved in the present work by tracing both activities back to a level of abstraction that highlights their commonalities, thus allowing them to be manipulated in a mathematically consistent fashion. In particular, the mathematical theory underlying computer simulations has long been associated with partial differential equations and functional analysis concepts such as Hilbert spares and orthogonal projections. By relying on a probabilistic framework for the modeling of data, a Hilbert space framework emerges that permits the modeling of coefficients in the governing equations as random variables, or equivalently, as elements in a Hilbert space. This permits the development of an approximation theory for probabilistic problems that parallels that of deterministic approximation theory. According to this formalism, the solution of the problem is identified by its projection on a basis in the Hilbert space of random variables, as opposed to more traditional techniques where the solution is approximated by its first or second-order statistics. The present representation, in addition to capturing significantly more information than the traditional approach, facilitates the linkage between different interacting stochastic systems as is typically observed in real-life situations.

Ghanem, Roger↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exascale granular microstructure reconstruction in 3D volumes of arbitrary geometries with generative learning

Reconstructing 3D granular microstructures within volumes of arbitrary geometries from limited 2D image data is crucial for predicting the material properties, as well as performances of structural components accounting for material microstructural effects. We present a novel generative learning framework that enables exascale reconstruction of granular microstructures within complex 3D geometric volumes. Building upon existing transfer learning techniques using pre-trained convolutional neural networks (CNN), we introduce several key innovations to overcome the difficulties inherent in arbitrary geometries. Our framework incorporates periodic boundary conditions using circular padding techniques, ensuring continuity and representativeness of the reconstructed microstructures. We also introduce a novel seamless transition reconstruction (STR) method that creates statistically equivalent transition zones to integrate multiple pre-existing 3D microstructure volumes. Based on STR, we propose a cost-effective strategy for reconstructing microstructures within complex geometric volumes, minimizing computational waste. Validation through numerical experiments using kinetic Monte Carlo simulations demonstrates accurate reproduction of grain statistics, including grain size distributions and morphology. A case study involving the reconstruction of a 4-blade propeller microstructure illustrates the method’s capability to efficiently handle complex geometries. In conclusion, the proposed framework significantly reduces computational demands while maintaining high reconstruction quality, paving the way for scalable microstructure reconstruction in materials design and analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1984

A theoretical and experimental study of turbulent nonevaporating sprays

Measurements and analysis limited to the dilute portions of turbulent nonevaporating sprays injected into a still air environment were completed. Mean and fluctuating velocities and Reynolds stress were measured in the continuous phase. Liquid phase measurements included liquid mass fluxes, drop sizes and drop size and velocity correlation. Initial conditions needed for model evaluation were measured at a location as close to the injector exit as possible. The test sprays showed significant effects of slip and turbulent dispersion of the discrete phase. The measurements were used to evaluate three typical models of these processes: (1) a locally homogenous flow (LHF) model, where slip between the phases were neglected; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, where slip was considered but effects of drop dispersion by turbulence were ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model, where effects of interphase slip and turbulent dispersion were considered using random-walk computations for drop motion. The LHF and DSF models did not provide very satisfactory predictions for the present measurements. In contrast, the SSF model performed reasonably well with no modifications in the prescription of eddy properties from its original calibration. Some effects of drops on turbulence properties were observed near the dense regions of the sprays.

Solomon, A. S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A theoretical and experimental study of turbulent evaporating sprays

Measurements and analysis limited to the dilute portions of turbulent evaporating sprays, injected into a still air environment were completed. Mean and fluctuating velocities and Reynolds stress were measured in the continuous phase. Liquid phase measurements included liquid mass fluxes, drop sizes and drop size and velocity correlation. Initial conditions needed for model evaluation were measured at a location as close to the injector exit as possible. The test sprays showed significant effects of slip and turbulent dispersion of the discrete phase. The measurements were used to evaluate three typical models of these processes: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) model, where slip between the phases were neglected; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, where slip was considered but effects of drop dispersion by turbulence were ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model, where effects of interphase slip and turbulent dispersion were considered using random-walk computations for drop motion. For all three models, a k-epsilon model as used to find the properties of the continuous phase. The LHF and DSF models did not provide very satisfactory predictions for the present measurements. In contrast, the SSF model performed reasonably well--with no modifications in the prescription of eddy properties from its original calibration.

Solomon, A. S. P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization using pathwise algorithmic derivatives of electromagnetic shower simulations

Among the well-known methods to approximate derivatives of expectancies computed by Monte-Carlo simulations, averages of pathwise derivatives are often the easiest one to apply. Computing them via algorithmic differentiation typically does not require major manual analysis and rewriting of the code, even for very complex programs like simulations of particle-detector interactions in high-energy physics. However, the pathwise derivative estimator can be biased if there are discontinuities in the program, which may diminish its value for applications. This work integrates algorithmic differentiation into the electromagnetic shower simulation code HepEmShow based on G4HepEm, allowing us to study how well pathwise derivatives approximate derivatives of energy depositions in a sampling calorimeter with respect to parameters of the beam and geometry. We found that when multiple scattering is disabled in the simulation, means of pathwise derivatives converge quickly to their expected values, and these are close to the actual derivatives of the energy deposition. Additionally, we demonstrate the applicability of this novel gradient estimator for stochastic gradient-based optimization in a model example.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing extreme hourly precipitation risk for New York City after Hurricane Ida

The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused major damage and death in the United States on September 1st, 2021, and 11 people drowned in flooded basement apartments within New York City (NYC). It was catastrophic because the maximum hourly precipitation intensity, recorded as 3.47 inches (88.1 mm) per hour at Central Park, was unprecedentedly high for the NYC region. The stormwater infrastructure in NYC is built for 1.75 inches (44.5 mm) per hour, and so understanding the dynamic risk associated with Ida can inform city planning efforts for climate change’s impact on short duration extreme precipitation events. We contextualize this storm’s record-breaking hourly intensity within the historical record as well as project its risk in the near- to medium-term future using nonstationary stochastic models. These models are conditioned on average temperature (T avg ) and cooling degree day (CDD) projections from three climate models as a covariate, each with a SSP 126 and SSP 370 scenario. The likelihood of such a storm was slowly increasing even before Ida happened, but the projected aggregate reoccurrence risk of an event of Ida’s magnitude over time from the non-stationary models ranges from 4 to 52 times higher than the risk given by the stationary model. Using CDD as a covariate resulted in risks that were more than twice the magnitude than when using T avg . Presenting both covariates provides a broader envelope of uncertainty, which highlights the importance and nuances in the choice of a regionally appropriate covariate for non-stationary risk analysis.

Mossel, Carolien↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimisation of the Kaplan hydropower system via PID 2 and digital twin

Here, this paper proposes a proportional–integral-double–derivative (PID 2 ) optimisation method for the Kaplan hydropower system by building a digital twin. The study first uses one multilayer perceptron (MLP) to model the hydroturbine dynamic and then adopts three connected MLPs to model the generator dynamic, both in an open-loop fashion. Inspired by stochastic distribution control (SDC) theory, we regard the training of the turbine's neural network model as a process control problem, and we propose minimising entropy loss to update the network parameters. The next step is to build the digital twin by connecting the neural network models with a PID 2 controller and a lead-lag exciter and run the whole model in a closed-loop fashion. After that, a binary search approach is applied to optimise the PID 2 parameters based on the obtained digital twin model. The simulation results show that the proposed method can reduce the mean square tracking error by more than 90%. Furthermore, the method is extended to jointly optimise the PID 2 controller and excitation system gains through multiobjective optimisation, leveraging Pareto frontier analysis to balance active power and voltage tracking performance. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving a 83.46% reduction in relative mean square error of active power, a 47.13% reduction in terminal voltage tracking error, and an 82.78% improvement in the overall scalarized objective.

Hydropower system↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decadal Spiciness Variability in the Subtropical-Tropical Pacific in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Tropical Pacific decadal variations impact weather and climate around the world and are also connected to variations in the global warming trend. The mechanisms driving these long-term modulations, particularly the role of subsurface ocean dynamics, are still debated. Here, we investigate the dynamics of spiciness (density-compensated temperature and salinity) anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific, which are hypothesized as a possible driving mechanism of decadal climate variability. Based on the analysis of 100 realizations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we demonstrate a coupling between the subtropics and the equatorial Pacific by propagating spiciness anomalies at decadal time scales. The CESM2-LE simulates spiciness variability along a subduction path from the subtropics to the equator with frequency spectra that show the highest power at low frequencies and a power decay proportional to a −4 slope for frequencies greater than 0.01 cycles per months, corresponding to periods smaller than ∼8.5 years. Signals that originate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) dominate and arrive with a larger magnitude at the equator compared to spiciness anomalies from the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Spiciness anomalies from the SH have shorter propagation times and are strengthened along their pathway as stochastic wind stress curl forcing generates anomalous baroclinic ocean pressure gradients. These pressure gradients generate spiciness anomalies via anomalous advection across climatological spiciness gradients in the SH. We conclude that the observed spiciness variance at decadal time scales is consistent with a forcing by stochastic wind variations that are low-pass filtered by ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

A NASTRAN-based computer program for structural dynamic analysis of Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines

This paper describes a computer program developed for structural dynamic analysis of horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWT's). It is based on the finite element method through its reliance on NASTRAN for the development of mass, stiffness, and damping matrices of the tower end rotor, which are treated in NASTRAN as separate structures. The tower is modeled in a stationary frame and the rotor in one rotating at a constant angular velocity. The two structures are subsequently joined together (external to NASTRAN) using a time-dependent transformation consistent with the hub configuration. Aerodynamic loads are computed with an established flow model based on strip theory. Aeroelastic effects are included by incorporating the local velocity and twisting deformation of the blade in the load computation. The turbulent nature of the wind, both in space and time, is modeled by adding in stochastic wind increments. The resulting equations of motion are solved in the time domain using the implicit Newmark-Beta integrator. Preliminary comparisons with data from the Boeing/NASA MOD2 HAWT indicate that the code is capable of accurately and efficiently predicting the response of HAWT's driven by turbulent winds.

Lobitz, Don W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Informed Learning Machines for Multiscale and Multiphysics Problems (PHILMS) (Technical Report)

The research work at University of California Santa Barbara (UCSB) resulted in several new developments in the areas of scientific machine learning, numerical analysis, and practical methods for data-driven modeling, prediction, reductions, and simulation. Many of the projects were carried out in collaboration with members of the national laboratories at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Pacific Northwestern National Laboratories (PNNL), and other institutions. Results included developing new scientific machine learning methods, related theory and mathematical frameworks for analysis and training, data-driven numerical solvers, and related tools and software for scientific computation. During the support period, over 16+ papers were submitted for publication, and 4 open-source software packages were developed and released (available at http://atzberger.org/). In addition, 7+ students and 2 post-docs were mentored in collaboration with the laboratory staff for future careers in academia, government labs, and industry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Loss of Control Detection for Commercial Transport Aircraft Using Conditional Variational Autoencoders

This work describes a detector for the loss of control condition of a commercial transport in flight. The detector has a belief state defined by the latent variable stochastic modeling of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) constructed with bidirectional recurrent layers. In 2000, the Boeing Company and the NASA Langley Research Center jointly developed a quantitative set of metrics for defining loss-of-control (LOC) for a commercial transport. We use the thresholds for these quantitative metrics to define a condition vector for training the CVAE. First, we demonstrate through experimentation that reconstruction probability is an accurate indicator that the vehicle has shifted to an LOC state. Second, we introduce a technique for inferring that the vehicle is approaching a flight state change by measuring a shift in the sampling distributions of the CVAE latent space. The sampling distributions for flight observations that are approaching envelope limits are localized to external areas of the latent space. We provide an analysis of its applicability to flight data from NASA’s dynamically-scaled generic transport model (GTM) aircraft.

Loss of control↗
DOE OSTI2023

ANN-based ground motion model for Turkey using stochastic simulation of earthquakes

SUMMARY Turkey is characterized by a high level of seismic activity attributed to its complex tectonic structure. The country has a dense network to record earthquake ground motions; however, to study previous earthquakes and to account for potential future ones, ground motion simulations are required. Ground motion simulation techniques offer an alternative means of generating region-specific time-series data for locations with limited seismic networks or regions with seismic data gaps, facilitating the study of potential catastrophic earthquakes. In this research, a local ground motion model (GMM) for Turkey is developed using region-specific simulated records, thus constructing a homogeneous data set. The simulations employ the stochastic finite-fault approach and utilize validated input-model parameters in distinct regions, namely Afyon, Erzincan, Duzce, Istanbul and Van. To overcome the limitations of linear regression-based models, artificial neural network is used to establish the form of equations and coefficients. The predictive input parameters encompass fault mechanism (FM), focal depth (FD), moment magnitude (Mw), Joyner and Boore distance (RJB) and average shear wave velocity in the top 30 m (Vs30). The data set comprises 7359 records with Mw ranging between 5.0 and 7.5 and RJB ranging from 0 to 272 km. The results are presented in terms of spectral ordinates within the period range of 0.03–2.0 s, as well as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The quantification of the GMM uncertainty is achieved through the analysis of residuals, enabling insights into inter- and intra-event uncertainties. The simulation results and the effectiveness of the model are verified by comparing the predicted values of ground motion parameters with the observed values recorded during previous events in the region. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model in simulating physical phenomena.

Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh (ORCID:0000000337531676)↗