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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Simulation budgeting for hybrid effective field theories

In this work, we forecast the number of, and requirements on, N-body simulations needed to train hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) emulators for a range of use cases, using a hybrid of HMcode and perturbation theory as a surrogate model. Our accuracy goals, determined with careful consideration of statistical and systematic uncertainties, are 1% accurate in the high-likelihood range of cosmological parameters, and 2% accurate over a broader parameter space volume for k < 1 h Mpc -1 and z < 3. Focusing in part on the 8-parameter w 0 w a CDM+ m ν cosmological model, we find that < 225 simulations are required to meet our error goals over our wide parameter space, including models with rapidly evolving dark energy, given our simulation and emulator recommendations. For a more restricted parameter space volume, as few as 80 simulations are sufficient. We additionally present simulation forecasts for example use cases, and make the code used in our analyses publicly available. These results offer practical guidance for efficient emulator design and simulation budgeting in future cosmological analyses.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Blinding multiprobe cosmological experiments

ABSTRACT The goal of blinding is to hide an experiment’s critical results – here the inferred cosmological parameters – until all decisions affecting its analysis have been finalized. This is especially important in the current era of precision cosmology, when the results of any new experiment are closely scrutinized for consistency or tension with previous results. In analyses that combine multiple observational probes, like the combination of galaxy clustering and weak lensing in the Dark Energy Survey (DES), it is challenging to blind the results while retaining the ability to check for (in)consistency between different parts of the data. We propose a simple new blinding transformation, which works by modifying the summary statistics that are input to parameter estimation, such as two-point correlation functions. The transformation shifts the measured statistics to new values that are consistent with (blindly) shifted cosmological parameters while preserving internal (in)consistency. We apply the blinding transformation to simulated data for the projected DES Year 3 galaxy clustering and weak lensing analysis, demonstrating that practical blinding is achieved without significant perturbation of internal-consistency checks, as measured here by degradation of the χ2 between the data and best-fitting model. Our blinding method’s performance is expected to improve as experiments evolve to higher precision and accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical and systematic uncertainties in extracting the source properties of neutron star-black hole binaries with gravitational waves

Gravitational waves emitted by neutron star black hole mergers encode key properties of neutron stars - such as their size, maximum mass and spins - and black holes. However, the presence of matter and the high mass ratio makes generating long and accurate waveforms from these systems hard to do with numerical relativity, and not much is known about systematic uncertainties due to waveform modeling. In this work, we simulate gravitational waves from neutron star black hole mergers by hybridizing numerical relativity waveforms produced with the SpEC code with a recent numerical relativity surrogate NRHybSur3dq8Tidal. These signals are analyzed using a range of available waveform families, and statistical and systematic errors are reported. We find that at a network signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 30, statistical uncertainties are usually larger than systematic offsets, while at an SNR of 70 the two become comparable. The individual black hole and neutron star masses, as well as the mass ratios, are typically measured very precisely, though not always accurately at high SNR. At a SNR of 30 the neutron star tidal deformability can only be bound from above, while for louder sources it can be measured and constrained away from zero. All neutron stars in our simulations are non-spinning, but in no case we can constrain the neutron star spin to be smaller than ~0.4 (90% credible interval). Waveform families whose late inspiral has been tuned specifically for neutron star black hole signals typically yield the most accurate characterization of the source parameters. Their measurements are in tension with those obtained using waveform families tuned against binary neutron stars, even for mass ratios that could be relevant for both binary neutron stars and neutron star black holes mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity

Widespread aridification of the land surface causes substantial environmental challenges and is generally well documented. However, the mechanisms underlying increased aridity remain relatively underexplored. Here, we investigated the anthropogenic and natural factors affecting long-term global aridity changes using multisource observation-based aridity index, factorial simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), and rigorous detection and attribution (D&A) methods. Our study found that anthropogenic forcings, mainly rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and aerosols, caused the increased aridification of the globe and each hemisphere with high statistical confidence for 1965–2014; the GHGE contributed to drying trends, whereas the aerosol emissions led to wetting tendencies; moreover, the bias-corrected CMIP6 future aridity index based on the scaling factors from optimal D&A demonstrated greater aridification than the original simulations. These findings highlight the dominant role of human effects on increasing aridification at broad spatial scales, implying future reductions in aridity will rely primarily on the GHGE mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Accurate Modeling of Galaxy Clustering on Small Scales: Constraining the Galaxy-halo Connection with Optimal Statistics

Applying halo models to analyze the small-scale clustering of galaxies is a proven method for characterizing the connection between galaxies and their host halos. Such works are often plagued by systematic errors or limited to clustering statistics that can be predicted analytically. In this work, we employ a numerical mock-based modeling procedure to examine the clustering of Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7 galaxies. We apply a standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) model to dark matter only simulations with a ΛCDM cosmology. To constrain the theoreStical models, we utilize a combination of galaxy number density and selected scales of the projected correlation function, redshift-space correlation function, group multiplicity function, average group velocity dispersion, mark correlation function, and counts-in-cells statistics. We design an algorithm to choose an optimal combination of measurements that yields tight and accurate constraints on our model parameters. Compared to previous work using fewer clustering statistics, we find a significant improvement in the constraints on all parameters of our halo model for two different luminosity-threshold galaxy samples. Most interestingly, we obtain unprecedented high-precision constraints on the scatter in the relationship between galaxy luminosity and halo mass. However, our best-fit model results in significant tension (>4σ) for both samples, indicating the need to add second-order features to the standard HOD model. To guarantee the robustness of these results, we perform an extensive analysis of the systematic and statistical errors in our modeling procedure, including a first of its kind study of the sensitivity of our constraints to changes in the halo mass function due to baryonic physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning assisted bayesian inference of mix and hot-spot conditions in NIF implosions

Experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have provided clear evidence of ablator material mixing into the Hot-Spot, leading to degraded performance. However, inferring the amount of mix and Hot-Spot conditions from typical experimental observations (e.g. x-ray spectra and images) is highly challenging. Here, we have developed an analysis method that utilizes machine learning assisted Bayesian inference to find the probability distributions of the Hot-Spot and mix conditions. This approach uses a neural network, trained on an idealized 2-dimensional representation of the Hot-Spot and mix distribution, and Bayesian inference to find the statistical distributions of Hot-Spot conditions that provide a match with observations. We have tested this method with synthetic data from simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time reversal symmetry breaking and odd viscosity in active fluids: Green–Kubo and NEMD results

Active fluids, which are driven at the microscale by non-conservative forces, are known to exhibit novel transport phenomena due to the breaking of time reversal symmetry. Recently, Epstein and Mandadapu [arXiv:1907.10041 (2019)] obtained Green-Kubo relations for the full set of viscous coefficients governing isotropic chiral active fluids, including the so-called odd viscosity, invoking Onsager's regression hypothesis for the decay of fluctuations in active non-equilibrium steady states. In this Communication, we test these Green-Kubo relations using molecular dynamics simulations of a canonical model system consisting of actively torqued dumbbells. We find the resulting odd and shear viscosity values from the Green-Kubo relations to be in good agreement with values measured independently through non-equilibrium molecular dynamics flow simulations. This provides a test of the Green-Kubo relations and lends support to the application of the Onsager regression hypothesis in relation to viscous behaviors of active matter systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spectral characterization of flash and high flux x-ray radiographic sources with a magnetic Compton spectrometer

In this article, we present a new analysis method applied to revitalize permanent magnet Compton spectrometers used to measure photon energy spectra in the MeV range. The inversion of the measured electron distribution to determine the original photon distribution is achieved via a method of consistent coupled radiation transport and magnetic field mapping of the input photon spectra to the measured electron distribution. The method of linear least squares was used to perform the unfolding of the electron distribution to the initial photon spectra, without any assumptions made regarding the electron distribution. We present an application of this method to data from a nominal 19.4 MeV flash radiographic source (the first axis of the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydro-Test Facility) capable of generating 500 R @ 1 m in ~60 ns and a medical therapy source (a Scanditronix M22, Microtron) capable of variable energies with nominal endpoints of 6, 10, 15, and 20 MeV and an output of ~1000–2000 R/min @ 1 m. The results provide agreement between the modeled and unfolded experimentally measured photon spectra as quantified by statistical tests, from 1.5 to 20 MeV. Experimental results are presented as well as a discussion of the novel MCNP6-based simulations and methods for reconstruction of the spectra.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measuring higher-order moments of neutron-time-of-flight data for cryogenic inertial confinement fusion implosions on OMEGA

Ion temperatures serve as an important diagnostic for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. In direct-drive ICF experiments on OMEGA, neutron-time-of-flight (nTOF) data are used to infer the ion temperature of the fusing plasma produced in the implosion experiment. The analysis of the nTOF data requires an assumption about the shape of the underlying source signal. Since the source nTOF signal is a near-replica of the neutron energy spectrum, an ideal Gaussian shape, corresponding to the neutron energy spectrum of a uniform temperature plasma, is routinely employed. However, spatial and temporal variations of the ion temperature in the plasma give rise to higher-order moments, which were first described by Munro [Nucl. Fusion 56, 036001 (2016)]. In this work, we show a simpler alternative analysis to derive moments of the neutron energy spectrum for a plasma with variations in ion temperature. We also present a revised analysis of measured nTOF signals that uses a model with an additional degree of freedom to take into account the effect of ion temperature variations on the shape of the spectrum. Compared to presently used nTOF analysis, the revised analysis yields on average ≈2× more accurate fits to the data and up to 15% higher ion temperatures for cryogenic experiments. As a result, we quantify the ion temperature inflation caused by radially symmetric fluid flows, which are present even in a symmetric implosion, and which serve as a lower bound on the ion temperature inflation in real implosions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inference finds consistency between a neutrino flavor evolution model and Earth-based solar neutrino measurements

We continue examining statistical data assimilation (SDA), an inference methodology, to infer solutions to neutrino flavor evolution, for the first time using real - rather than simulated - data. The model represents neutrinos streaming from the Sun's center and undergoing a Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) resonance in flavor space, due to the radially-varying electron number density. The model neutrino energies are chosen to correspond to experimental bins in the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory (SNO) and Borexino experiments, which measure electron-flavor survival probability at Earth. In conclusion, the procedure successfully finds consistency between the observed fluxes and the model, if the MSW resonance - that is, flavor evolution due to solar electrons - is included in the dynamical equations representing the model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact and mitigation of polarized extragalactic foregrounds on Bayesian cosmic microwave background lensing

Future low-noise cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing measurements from e.g., CMB-S4 will be polarization dominated, rather than temperature dominated. In this new regime, statistically optimal lensing reconstructions outperform the standard quadratic estimator, but their sensitivity to extragalactic polarized foregrounds has not been quantified. Using realistic simulations of polarized radio and infrared point sources, we show for the first time that optimal Bayesian lensing from a CMB-S4-like experiment is insensitive to the expected level of polarized extragalactic foregrounds after masking, as long as an accurate foreground power spectrum is included in the analysis. For more futuristic experiments where these foregrounds could cause a detectable bias, we propose a new method to jointly fit for lensing and the Poisson foregrounds, generalizing the bias hardening from the standard quadratic estimator to Bayesian lensing.

cosmic microwave background↗
DOE OSTI2020

Field-Dependent Ionic Conductivities from Generalized Fluctuation-Dissipation Relations

We derive a relationship for the electric field dependent ionic conductivity in terms of fluctuations of time integrated microscopic variables. We demonstrate this formalism with molecular dynamics simulations of solutions of differing ionic strength with implicit solvent conditions and molten salts. These calculations are aided by a novel nonequilibrium statistical reweighting scheme that allows for the conductivity to be computed as a continuous function of the applied field. In strong electrolytes, we find the fluctuations of the ionic current are Gaussian, and subsequently, the conductivity is constant with applied field. In weaker electrolytes and molten salts, we find the fluctuations of the ionic current are strongly non-Gaussian, and the conductivity increases with applied field. Furthermore, this nonlinear behavior, known phenomenologically for dilute electrolytes as the Onsager-Wien effect, is general and results from the suppression of ionic correlations at large applied fields, as we elucidate through both dynamic and static correlations within nonequilibrium steady states.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmic Reionization on Computers: Statistics, Physical Properties, and Environments of Lyman Limit Systems at z ~ 6

Lyman limit systems (LLSs) are dense hydrogen clouds with high enough H i column densities to absorb Lyman continuum photons emitted from distant quasars. Their high column densities imply an origin in dense environments; however, the statistics and distribution of LLSs at high redshifts still remain uncertain. In this paper, we use self-consistent radiative transfer cosmological simulations from the Cosmic Reionization on Computers (CROC) project to study the physical properties of LLSs at the tail end of cosmic reionization at z ~ 6. We generate 3000 synthetic quasar sight lines to obtain a large number of LLS samples in the simulations. In addition, with the high physical fidelity and resolution of CROC, we are able to quantify the association between these LLS samples and nearby galaxies. Our results show that the fraction of LLSs spatially associated with nearby galaxies increases with H i column density. Moreover, we find that LLSs that are not near any galaxy typically reside in filamentary structures connecting neighboring galaxies in the intergalactic medium (IGM). This quantification of the distribution and association of LLSs to large-scale structure informs our understanding of the IGM–galaxy connection during the "Epoch of Reionization," and provides a theoretical basis for interpreting future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the Medium Energy NuMI Flux Using the Low-$\nu$ and High-$\nu$ Methods at MINERvA

As we continue to improve our experimental capabilities, the measurements we make of accelerator-based neutrino phenomena are becoming increasingly limited by systematic, rather than statistical uncertainties. Among these are uncertainties corresponding to our understanding of the neutrino flux and to the models that we use to simulate neutrino interactions. These already are significant for currently-running neutrino experiments, and will become more important for next-generation neutrino experiments such as DUNE. Dedicated efforts at experiments such as MINERvA are pursuing improved comprehensive modeling of neutrino cross sections and improving our understanding of how to precisely measure neutrino fluxes. This thesis discusses these themes in the context of MINERvA, a neutrino scattering experiment which was located on-axis in the NuMI beamline at Fermilab. A pair of \textit{in situ} measurements of the flux are presented which utilize Medium Energy $\nu_{\mu}$ data colle cted at MINERvA between 2013 and 2017. The low-$\nu$ technique is used to make a direct measurement of the flux from low-inelasticity events, and that flux is used to measure the total charged-current inclusive cross section. The novel ``high-$\nu$'' technique is used to make a second direct measurement of the flux from a complementary selection of high-inelasticity events, and that flux is used to measure a double-differential cross section of charged-current quasielastic-like events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rewarding Grid-Friendly Behavior: Estimating the Potential Bill Reduction and Load Shifting Benefits of Dynamic Prices

Shifting electric load from times of peak demand can be a key strategy to slow price growth as reducing peak demand avoids the cost of upgrading generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure. Utilities are releasing time-varying prices, such as time of use rates or dynamic prices, to incentivize grid-friendly load shifting. New dynamic price programs provide insight into the true cost of operating electricity grids and the potential economic benefits of load shifting. Program developers and device manufacturers need to understand the economic opportunities in terms of 1) the variation in prices across hours, days, and seasons; 2) the change in utility bills for customers who don’t shift load; and 3) the potential load shifted and economic value of different technologies if manufacturers or aggregators deploy price-responsive controls. This paper estimates possible impacts of dynamic price adoption and load shifting controls if customers paid the dynamic rate from one pilot program. Statistical analysis of historical prices identified annual and seasonal metrics as well as representative price curves for each circuit in the pilot. Simulations for residential technologies with price-responsive controls including unitary heat pump water heaters, central multifamily heat pump water heaters, heating & cooling + storage systems, and pool pumps estimated the potential impacts of highly dynamic prices both with and without load shifting controls. Results showed the potential to reduce electricity costs on representative days by 42-94% and reduce consumption during times of high electricity prices by 63-100% compared to baseline operation for those flex-friendly devices.

Grant, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-tlie-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Simulation of Proton Cyclotron Waves Upstream of Mars Generated by Pickup Ion Beam Distribution

Linear instability analysis as well as a corresponding two‐dimensional hybrid simulation are performed to examine the excitation of the proton cyclotron waves observed upstream of Mars. The waves are believed to be excited by the pickup ions produced from the ionization of the Martian hydrogen exosphere. And previous statistical analysis of wave observations suggested that the waves are mostly related to pickup ion beam velocity distributions. While earlier linear instability analysis of pickup ion beam distributions has mainly been focused on the parallel unstable modes, our analysis reveals that the maximum growth rate occurs at very oblique propagation. The corresponding hybrid simulation confirms the linear analysis results and further demonstrates that the pickup ions are scattered toward an isotropic shell velocity distribution by the waves excited. Interestingly, the waves at oblique propagation gradually damp out and the system is eventually dominated by waves of quasi‐parallel propagation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗