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DOE OSTI2026

On the Statistical Uncertainty of Monte Carlo-Calculated Scattering Sensitivities

Sensitivity coefficients calculated with Monte Carlo codes are widely used for nuclear data uncertainty quantification in the modeling and simulation of complex 3D reactor systems. This study systematically compares sensitivity coefficients and associated statistical uncertainties for the multiplication factor and fuel temperature reactivity across multiple Monte Carlo codes (SCALE/KENO, SCALE/Shift, MCNP, and Serpent) using simple models representing light-water reactors and advanced reactor concepts. For multiplication factor sensitivities, statistical uncertainties are generally acceptable, although scattering sensitivities show significantly larger statistical uncertainties than, for example, fission and capture reactions. Fuel temperature reactivity sensitivities show significantly larger statistical uncertainties across all reactions. Elastic scattering sensitivities are the most problematic: all Monte Carlo codes fail to resolve energy-dependent coefficients, and they produce dramatically different energy-collapsed values. Critically, the use of these sensitivity coefficients in nuclear data uncertainty propagation leads to reduced statistical uncertainties in individual uncertainty contributions. This can lead to the masking of unusable sensitivity coefficients and producing misleading uncertainty results. The findings of this study show that new or enhanced methods are needed to improve Monte Carlo elastic scattering sensitivity calculations. Additionally, this study shows the relevance of verifying sensitivity coefficients through direct perturbation calculations for individual nuclide reactions, instead of only for total cross sections as commonly done.

Bostelmann, Rike [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000165968088)↗

NASA NTRS1983

Feature selection methodologies using simulated Thematic Mapper data

The present investigation is concerned with the determination of the intrinsic dimensionality of a simulated Thematic Mapper data set. In addition, the effectiveness and sensitivity of 'standard' statistics separability measures (i.e., transformed divergence) is evaluated in comparison to eigenvectors for identifying the optimum subset of the original Thematic Mapper Simulator (TMS) bands for classifying the various cover types. TMS data were collected on May 2, 1979 by NASA's NS001 aircraft multispectral scanner over a bottomland forested area in South Carolina near the city of Camden. It is found that the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of a covariance matrix from a multispectral scanner system (MSS) data set can be obtained without having to actually transform the data.

Dean, M. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Backlighting extended gas halos around luminous red galaxies: Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect from DESI Y1 and ACT data

The gas density profile around galaxies, shaped by feedback and affecting the galaxy lensing signal, is imprinted on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect (kSZ). We precisely measure this effect (𝑆/𝑁 ≈ 10) via velocity stacking with 825,283 spectroscopically confirmed luminous red galaxies (LRG) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Year 1 (DESI Y1) survey, which overlap with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 temperature maps over ≥ 4,000 deg 2 . We explore the kSZ dependence with various galaxy parameters and find no significant trend with redshift but clear trends with stellar mass and absolute magnitude in 𝑔, 𝑟, and 𝑧 bands. Our analysis suggests that the gas extends beyond the dark matter halo (99.5% confidence level, i.e., probability to exceed (PTE)⁢ = 0.005). We find a tentative preference for hydrodynamical simulation models with stronger feedback that drives gas further out (Illustris 𝑧 = 0.5, PTE⁢ = 0.37) over weaker-feedback cases (IllustrisTNG 𝑧 = 0.8, PTE⁢ = 0.045), though with limited statistical significance. In all cases, a free multiplicative amplitude was fit to the simulated profiles, and further modeling work is required to firm up these conclusions. We find consistency between kSZ profiles around spectroscopic and photometric LRG, with comparable statistical power, thus increasing our confidence in the photometric analysis. Additionally, we present the first kSZ measurement around the DESI Y1 bright galaxy sample (BGS) and the emission-line galaxies (ELG) whose features match qualitative expectations. Finally, we forecast 𝑆/𝑁 ∼ 50 for future stacked kSZ measurements using data from the ACT, the DESI Y3, and the Rubin Observatory. Furthermore, these measurements will serve as an input for galaxy formation models and baryonic uncertainties in galaxy lensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Direct Numerical Simulations of Transitional/Turbulent Wakes

The interest in transitional/turbulent wakes spans the spectrum from an intellectual pursuit to understand the complex underlying physics to a critical need in aeronautical engineering and other disciplines to predict component/system performance and reliability. Cylinder wakes have been studied extensively over several decades to gain a better understanding of the basic flow phenomena that are encountered in such flows. Experimental, computational and theoretical means have been employed in this effort. While much has been accomplished there are many important issues that need to be resolved. The physics of the very near wake of the cylinder (less than three diameters downstream) is perhaps the most challenging of them all. This region comprises the two detached shear layers, the recirculation region and wake flow. The interaction amongst these three components is to some extent still a matter of conjecture. Experimental techniques have generated a large percentage of the data that have provided us with the current state of understanding of the subject. More recently computational techniques have been used to simulate cylinder wakes, and the data from such simulations are being used to both refine our understanding of such flows as well as provide new insights. A few large eddy and direct numerical simulations (LES and DNS) of cylinder wakes have appeared in the literature in the recent past. These investigations focus on the low Reynolds number range where the cylinder boundary layer is laminar (sub-critical range). However, from an engineering point of view, there is considerable interest in the situation where the upper and/or lower boundary layer of an airfoil is turbulent, and these turbulent boundary layers separate from the airfoil to contribute to the formation of the wake downstream. In the case of cylinders, this only occurs at relatively large unit Reynolds numbers. However, in the case of airfoils, the boundary layer has the opportunity to transition to turbulence on the airfoil surface at a relatively lower unit Reynolds number because the characteristic length of the airfoil is typically one to two orders of magnitude larger than the trailing edge diameter. This transition to turbulence would occur unless there is a strong favorable pressure gradient that results in the boundary layer remaining laminar or transitional over the surface of the airfoil. This presentation will focus on two direct numerical simulations that have been performed at NASA ARC. The first is of a cylinder wake with laminar separating boundary layers. The second is the wake of a flat plate with a circular trailing edge. The upper and lower plate surface boundary layers are both turbulent and statistically identical. Thus the computed wake is symmetric in a statistical sense. This flow is more representative of airfoil wakes than cylinder wakes. Results from the two simulations including flow visualization and turbulence statistics in the near wake will be presented at the seminar.

wakes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microscopic Origin of Twist-Dependent Electron Transfer Rate in Bilayer Graphene

Using molecular simulation and continuum dielectric theory, we consider how electrochemical kinetics are modulated by the twist angle in bilayer graphene electrodes. By establishing a connection between the twist angle and the screening length of charge carriers within the electrode, we investigate how tunable metallicity modifies the statistics of the electron transfer energy gap. Constant potential molecular simulations show that the activation free energy for electron transfer increases with screening length, leading to a non-monotonic dependence on the twist angle. Here, the twist angle alters the density of states, tuning the number of thermally accessible channels for electron transfer and the reorganization energy by affecting the stability of the vertically excited state through attenuated image charge interactions. Understanding these effects allows us to express the Marcus rate of interfacial electron transfer as a function of the twist angle in a manner consistent with experimental observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulating low-energy neutrino interactions with MARLEY

Monte Carlo event generators are a critical tool for the interpretation of data obtained by neutrino experiments. Several modern event generators are available which are well-suited to the GeV energy scale used in studies of accelerator neutrinos. However, theoretical modeling differences make their immediate application to lower energies difficult. In this paper, I present a new event generator, MARLEY, which is designed to better address the simulation needs of the low-energy (tens of MeV and below) neutrino community. The code is written in C++14 with an optional interface to the popular ROOT data analysis framework. The current release of MARLEY (version 1.2.0) emphasizes simulations of the reaction 40 Ar ( ν e , e − ) 40 K ⁎ but is extensible to other channels with suitable user input. This paper provides detailed documentation of MARLEY's implementation and usage, including guidance on how generated events may be analyzed and how MARLEY may be interfaced with external codes such as Geant4. Further information about MARLEY is available on the official website at http://www.marleygen.org. Program title:MARLEY 1.2.0 CPC Library link to program files:https://doi.org/10.17632/4v7zxnc8j3.1 Developer's respository link:http://github.com/MARLEY-MC/marley Code Ocean capsule:https://codeocean.com/capsule/9868179 Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License 3.0 Programming language: C++14 External routines/libraries used: GNU Scientific Library [1,2] (required), ROOT [3,4] (optional) Nature of problem: Simulation of neutrino-nucleus scattering events at energies of tens-of-MeV and below Solution method: Initial two-to-two scattering kinematics are sampled using the allowed approximation differential cross section and tables of precomputed nuclear matrix elements. Subsequent de-excitations of the remnant nucleus are simulated using a Monte Carlo implementation of the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model and tabulated γ-ray decay schemes for discrete nuclear levels. Additional comments including restrictions and unusual features: Input data are provided with the code that are suitable for producing simulations of the charged-current reaction 40 Ar ( ν e , e − ) 40 K ⁎ , coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering on spin-zero target nuclei, and neutrino-electron elastic scattering on any atomic target. Preparation of new reaction input files (whose format is documented in Appendix B) would enable other reaction channels and nuclear targets to be handled by the existing code framework. Although there is no maximum neutrino energy enforced by the code itself, realistic neutrino-nucleus scattering events may be generated up to roughly 50 MeV. Above this energy, the effects of forbidden nuclear transitions, which are neglected in the current treatment of the cross sections (see section 2.1), become increasingly important.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Implementation of an Open-Scenario, Long-Term Space Debris Simulation Approach

This paper provides a status update on the implementation of a flexible, long-term space debris simulation approach. The motivation is to build a tool that can assess the long-term impact of various options for debris-remediation, including the LightForce space debris collision avoidance concept that diverts objects using photon pressure [9]. State-of-the-art simulation approaches that assess the long-term development of the debris environment use either completely statistical approaches, or they rely on large time steps on the order of several days if they simulate the positions of single objects over time. They cannot be easily adapted to investigate the impact of specific collision avoidance schemes or de-orbit schemes, because the efficiency of a collision avoidance maneuver can depend on various input parameters, including ground station positions and orbital and physical parameters of the objects involved in close encounters (conjunctions). Furthermore, maneuvers take place on timescales much smaller than days. For example, LightForce only changes the orbit of a certain object (aiming to reduce the probability of collision), but it does not remove entire objects or groups of objects. In the same sense, it is also not straightforward to compare specific de-orbit methods in regard to potential collision risks during a de-orbit maneuver. To gain flexibility in assessing interactions with objects, we implement a simulation that includes every tracked space object in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and propagates all objects with high precision and variable time-steps as small as one second. It allows the assessment of the (potential) impact of physical or orbital changes to any object. The final goal is to employ a Monte Carlo approach to assess the debris evolution during the simulation time-frame of 100 years and to compare a baseline scenario to debris remediation scenarios or other scenarios of interest. To populate the initial simulation, we use the entire space-track object catalog in LEO. We then use a high precision propagator to propagate all objects over the entire simulation duration. If collisions are detected, the appropriate number of debris objects are created and inserted into the simulation framework. Depending on the scenario, further objects, e.g. due to new launches, can be added. At the end of the simulation, the total number of objects above a cut-off size and the number of detected collisions provide benchmark parameters for the comparison between scenarios. The simulation approach is computationally intensive as it involves tens of thousands of objects; hence we use a highly parallel approach employing up to a thousand cores on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer for a single run. This paper describes our simulation approach, the status of its implementation, the approach to developing scenarios and examples of first test runs.

laser↗

DOE OSTI2023

Meltwater runoff and glacier mass balance in the high Arctic: 1991–2022 simulations for Svalbard

The Arctic is undergoing increased warming compared to the global mean, which has major implications for freshwater runoff into the oceans from seasonal snow and glaciers. Here, we present high-resolution (2.5 km) simulations of glacier mass balance, runoff, and snow conditions on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the world. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model forced by Copernicus Arctic Regional ReAnalysis (CARRA) (1991–2021) and AROME-ARCTIC forecasts (2016–2022). Updates to the water percolation and runoff schemes are implemented in the CryoGrid model for the simulations. In situ observations available for Svalbard, including automatic weather station data, stake measurements, and discharge observations, are used to carefully evaluate the quality of the simulations and model forcing. We find a slightly negative climatic mass balance (CMB) over the simulation period of -0.08 mw.e.yr -1 but with no statistically significant trend. The most negative annual CMB is found for Nordenskiöldland (-0.73 mw.e.yr -1 ), with a significant negative trend of -0.27 mw.e. per decade for the region. Although there is no trend in the annual CMB, we do find a significant increasing trend in the runoff from glaciers of 0.14 mw.e. per decade. The average runoff was found to be 0.8 mw.e.yr -1 . We also find a significant negative trend in the refreezing of -0.13 mw.e. per decade. Using AROME-ARCTIC forcing, we find that 2021/22 has the most negative CMB and highest runoff over the 1991–2022 simulation period investigated in this study. We find the simulated climatic mass balance and runoff using CARRA and AROME-ARCTIC forcing are similar and differ by only 0.1 mw.e.yr -1 in climatic mass balance and by 0.2 mw.e.yr -1 in glacier runoff when averaged over all of Svalbard. There is, however, a clear difference over Nordenskiöldland, where AROME-ARCTIC simulates significantly higher mass balance and significantly lower runoff. This indicates that AROME-ARCTIC may provide similar high-quality predictions of the total mass balance of Svalbard as CARRA, but regional uncertainties should be taken into consideration. The simulations produced for this study are made publicly available at a daily and monthly resolution, and these high-resolution simulations may be re-used in a wide range of applications including studies on glacial runoff, ocean currents, and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

LAW Simulant Recipes for Evaluation of Real-Time, In-Line Monitoring Instruments

Statistically designed recipes were generated for evaluation of in-line instrumentation for the Real-Time In-Line Monitoring (RTIM) program in support of the Hanford Direct-Feed Low Activity Waste (DFLAW) program. The composition matrices were prepared based on Low Activity Waste (LAW) feed vector, melter feed, and Effluent Management Facility (EMF) feed information provided by the flowsheet integration modelling for the DFLAW portion of the Waste Treatment Plant (WTP) mission. These composition matrices were converted to recipes for the LAW feed using the approaches for LAW simulant recipes developed by Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). Recipes for the glass forming chemicals (GFCs) were developed based on expected mineral forms to be used to for each element to be added to the recipe. The recipe matrices are shown in the Appendix.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

LAW Simulant Recipes for Evaluation of Real-Time, In-Line Monitoring Instruments

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tracer Particles for Core-collapse Supernova Nucleosynthesis: The Advantages of Moving Backward

Abstract After decades, the theoretical study of core-collapse supernova explosions is moving from parameterized, spherically symmetric models to increasingly realistic multidimensional simulations. However, obtaining nucleosynthesis yields based on such multidimensional core-collapse supernova simulations is not straightforward. Frequently, tracer particles are employed. Tracer particles may be tracked in situ during the simulation, but often they are reconstructed in a post-processing step based on the information saved during the hydrodynamic simulation. Reconstruction can be done in a number of ways, and here we compare the approaches of backward and forward integration of the equations of motion to the results based on inline particle trajectories. We find that both methods agree reasonably well with the inline results for isotopes for which a large number of particles contribute. However, for rarer isotopes that are produced only by a small number of particle trajectories, deviations can be large. For our setup, we find that backward integration leads to better agreement with the inline particles by more accurately reproducing the conditions following freeze-out from nuclear statistical equilibrium, because the establishment of nuclear statistical equilibrium erases the need for detailed trajectories at earlier times. Based on our results, if inline tracers are unavailable, we recommend backward reconstruction to the point when nuclear statistical equilibrium was last applied, with an interval between simulation snapshots of at most 1 ms for nucleosynthesis post-processing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1973

A numerical study of rays in random media

Statistics of electromagnetic rays in a random medium are studied numerically by the Monte Carlo method. Two dimensional random surfaces with prescribed correlation functions are used to simulate the random media. Rays are then traced in these sample media. Statistics of the ray properties such as the ray positions and directions are computed. Histograms showing the distributions of the ray positions and directions at different points along the ray path as well as at given points in space are given. The numerical experiment is repeated for different cases corresponding to weakly and strongly random media with isotropic and anisotropic irregularities. Results are compared with those derived from theoretical investigations whenever possible.

Youakim, M. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Potential, velocity, and density fields from sparse and noisy redshift-distance samples - Method

A method for recovering the three-dimensional potential, velocity, and density fields from large-scale redshift-distance samples is described. Galaxies are taken as tracers of the velocity field, not of the mass. The density field and the initial conditions are calculated using an iterative procedure that applies the no-vorticity assumption at an initial time and uses the Zel'dovich approximation to relate initial and final positions of particles on a grid. The method is tested using a cosmological N-body simulation 'observed' at the positions of real galaxies in a redshift-distance sample, taking into account their distance measurement errors. Malmquist bias and other systematic and statistical errors are extensively explored using both analytical techniques and Monte Carlo simulations.

Dekel, Avishai↗

NASA NTRS1985

An error-dependent model of instrument-scanning behavior in commercial airline pilots

A new flexible model of pilot instrument scanning behavior is presented which assumes that the pilot uses a set of deterministic scanning patterns on the pilot's perception of error in the state of the aircraft, and the pilot's knowledge of the interactive nature of the aircraft's systems. Statistical analyses revealed that a three stage Markov process composed of the pilot's three predicted lookpoints (LP), occurring 1/30, 2/30, and 3/30 of a second prior to each LP, accurately modelled the scanning behavior of 14 commercial airline pilots while flying steep turn maneuvers in a Boeing 737 flight simulator. The modelled scanning data for each pilot were not statistically different from the observed scanning data in comparisons of mean dwell time, entropy, and entropy rate. These findings represent the first direct evidence that pilots are using deterministic scanning patterns during instrument flight. The results are interpreted as direct support for the error dependent model and suggestions are made for further research that could allow for identification of the specific scanning patterns suggested by the model.

Jones, D. H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deciphering the non-linear impact of Al on chemical durability of silicate glass

The role of Al in aluminosilicate glasses remains somewhat a mystery: at low concentrations, it increases the resistance to hydrolysis of the glass, whereas at high concentrations an opposite effect is observed. To understand the origin of the phenomenon on a fundamental atomistic scale, we performed 577 MD simulations and applied potential mean force (PMF) calculations to estimate the activation barriers for hydrolysis and to statistically correlate them with local structural features of the glass. Models of pure silicate and aluminosilicate glasses are constructed and investigated. PMF simulation results are further validated by the experimental measurements and revealed that Al is very easy to dissociate, but it also increases the glass chemical durability through significantly increasing both the strength of Si and network connectivity of the glass. In contrast, at high Al concentration, preferential dissolution of Al weakens the silicate network, which it supposes to strengthen, and so the glass resistance becomes poor. Through PMF calculations, we evaluated the activation barriers for dissociating bonds around Al as 0.49 eV, which is less than a half of the energy to dissociate bonds around Si in pure silicate (1.22 eV) and around Si in aluminosilicate glass (1.34 eV), all these energy differences being statistically significant. Molecular structural level investigation revealed that Si with Al as a second neighbor in the glass network has a significantly higher activation energy for dissociation than Si in pure silicate glass. Furthermore, the proposed approach opens the way to the development of quantitative predictive models of glass durability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1995

A Simulated Geochemical Rover Mission to the Taurus-Littrow Valley of the Moon

We test the effectiveness of using an alpha backscatter, alpha-proton, X ray spectrometer on a remotely operated rover to analyze soils and provide geologically useful information about the Moon during a simulated mission to a hypothetical site resembling the Apollo 17 landing site. On the mission, 100 soil samples are "analyzed" for major elements at moderate analytical precision (e.g., typical relative sample standard deviation from counting statistics: Si[11%], Al[18%], Fe[6%], Mg[20%], Ca[5%]). Simulated compositions of soils are generated by combining compositions of components representing the major lithologies occurring at the site in known proportions. Simulated analyses are generated by degrading the simulated compositions according to the expected analytical precision of the analyzer. Compositions obtained from the simulated analyses are modeled by least squares mass balance as mixtures of the components, and the relative proportions of those components as predicted by the model are compared with the actual proportions used to generate the simulated composition. Boundary conditions of the modeling exercise are that all important lithologic components of the regolith are known and are represented by model components, and that the compositions of these components are well known. The effect of having the capability of determining one incompatible element at moderate precision (25%) is compared with the effect of the lack of this capability. We discuss likely limitations and ambiguities that would be encountered, but conclude that much of our knowledge about the Apollo 17 site (based on the return samples) regarding the distribution and relative abundances of lithologies in the regolith could be obtained. This success requires, however, that at least one incompatible element be determined.

Korotev, Randy L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Studies in Transition and Time Varying Turbulent Flows

The research focused on two areas: (a) the dynamics of forced turbulent flows and (b) time filtered Large Eddy Simulations (TLES). The dynamics of turbulent flows arising from external forcing of the turbulence are poorly understood. In particular, here are many unanswered questions relating the basic dynamical balances and the existence or nonexistence of statistical equilibrium of forced turbulent flows. The research used direct numerical simulations to explore these questions. The properties of the temporally filtered Navier-Stokes equations were also studied.

Grosch, Chester E.↗