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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Analysis of Nuclear-Powered Data Center Scenarios

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for nuclear energy to meet the growing energy demands of data centers (DCs). It evaluates the technical, economic, and socio-environmental implications of coupling Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) with DCs, providing initial responses to several key research questions: What is the potential increased energy demand from DCs in the U.S., in the short, medium and long term? The U.S. is experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand from DCs, with projections indicating a total increase of 24-74 GWy(e) by 2028. Meeting this demand with nuclear energy would require 27–85 GWe of installed capacity. While this surge is expected to slow in the long term, the DC industry needs reliable, scalable, and clean energy sources. How much nuclear capacity can be deployed to meet DC demand and in which timeframe? Several pathways for increasing nuclear capacity were identified, including uprates, restarts of recently retired reactors, power purchase agreements with existing fleet, and new construction. Approximately 20‒28 GWe of nuclear capacity could be dedicated to DCs by the early 2030s. How much High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) would be needed to support some nuclear deployment scenarios for DCs? Meeting the deployment targets announced by Google and Amazon for the Kairos Power Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor or KP-FHR (~500 MWe by 2035) and the Xe-100 (~1 GWe by 2040), respectively, requires ramping up 19.75% enriched HALEU production to ~6 t/yr by 2040. What types of nuclear energy/DC coupling options exist, and what are the different benefits/challenges? Five coupling options were analyzed, ranging from grid-connected configurations to colocated, behind-the-meter setups. Key design considerations include the proximity to high- and/or medium-voltage transmission lines, the desired internal fault tolerance, and the sources of alternative/backup power during outages. Each coupling option offers unique benefits and challenges in terms of reliability, system costs, regulation, timeline, etc. A list of NPP/DC deployment scenarios was developed, considering existing or newly built NPP or DC projects. Colocated DCs with new small modular reactors or large reactors on greenfield and brownfield sites are the focus of this report. What types of reactors, especially what size, may be incentivized by DCs? Reactor sizing optimization revealed that the ideal reactor size and number of units depend on DC demand, coupling configurations defined in this report, and other economic factors. Larger reactors are preferred for high-demand DCs and grid-connected systems, while larger number of smaller reactors are better suited for DC configurations without grid backup. Which sites may be compatible with co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Siting those projects is a complicated evaluation factoring local water resources, grid connection availability and reliability, IT infrastructure, local work force, proximity to population zones, etc. For this effort greenfield and brownfield sites such as retired coal-fired plants were used to evaluate this question. This evaluation is not meant to recommend any particular site but it highlights key siting criteria and demonstrates large-scale site availability. What are the socio-economic impacts of co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Those projects generate substantial economic benefits to the local economy, particularly in urban settings. Hyperscale DCs colocated with nuclear power plants (sized around 1 GW of power) can create nearly 1,700 jobs for annual operations and more than 7,300 jobs among the supply chain and local businesses as a result of increased household spending. Rural projects also provide significant benefits, but at lower magnitudes compared to urban deployments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Remote sensing of atmospheric and surface parameters from HIRS2/MSU on TIROS-N

At the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) a physically based satellite temperature sounding retrieval system was developed, involving the simultaneous analysis of sounding data, for determining atmospheric and surface conditions that are consistent with the observed radiances. In addition to determining accurate atmospheric temperature profiles even in the presence of clouds, the system provides global estimates of day and night sea or land surface temperatures, snow and ice cover, cloud amounts, cloudtop heights and temperatures, and albedo. The characteristics of the atmospheric and surface parameters derived from the GLAS Physical Retrieval System are reviewed, results for the FGGE year are presented and, whenever possible, compared with other measurements of the same fields. Some of the model-derived diagnostic fields available from the GLAS Analysis/Forecast System are also discussed. These fields may lead to more accurate determination of the source terms of the atmospheric heat and moisture budgets.

Susskind, J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The CALorimetric Electron Telescope (CALET) on the International Space Station: Results from the First Two Years On Orbit

The CALorimetric Electron Telescope (CALET) is a high-energy astroparticle physics space experiment installed on the International Space Station (ISS), developed and operated by Japan in collaboration with Italy and the United States. The CALET mission goals include the investigation of possible nearby sources of high-energy electrons, of the details of galactic particle acceleration and propagation, and of potential signatures of dark matter. CALET measures the cosmic-ray electron+positron flux up to 20 TeV, gamma-rays up to 10 TeV, and nuclei with Z=1 to 40 up to 1,000 TeV for the more abundant elements during a long-term observation aboard the ISS. Starting science operation in mid-October 2015, CALET performed continuous observation without major interruption with close to 20 million triggered events over 10 GeV per month. Based on the data taken during the rst two-years, we present an overview of CALET observations: 1) Electron+positron energy spectrum, 2) Nuclei analysis, 3) Gamma-ray observation including a characterization of on-orbit performance. Results of the electromagnetic counterpart search for LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave events are discussed as well.

Y Asaoka↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Challenges in Understanding Radiation Belt Dynamics: Insights from Two Storm Periods

The periods of May 27 - June 5, 2017 and Oct 24 — 29, 2016 are 'unusual' in terms of radiation belt dynamics and their solar wind driving conditions. The first period was under the influence of a slow CME-led major geomagnetic storm with Dstmin = -125 nT and the second period was under high speed solar wind streams. Observations from Van Allen Probes show great variabilities in different electron energy channels for both periods. During the second period of Oct 24 - 29, 2016, electron fluxes are found to be near the highest upper limit among various storms during 2013–2018 (Hua, Bortnik and Ma, 2022). In this paper, we provide solar wind sources and geomagnetic conditions for these two storm periods and point out challenges in understanding, modeling, and forecasting radiation belt dynamics. In-depth analysis of modeling results utilizing radiation belt models available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center such as VERB and CIMI will be performed. Initial modeling results indicate rather large discrepancies with the observations. Model validation using different metrics introduced in Zheng et al. (2019) will be carried out to gain a deeper understanding of the physical processes involved and to identity potential causes of modeling inadequacies.

Yihua Zheng↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced pathways for hydrogen production: a collective view from a technical experts meeting

Hydrogen is an essential fuel and feedstock that can be produced in multiple ways to meet requirements for technological sectors that include energy storage, transportation, petroleum refining, and ammonia synthesis. To consider the future state of hydrogen manufacturing, a team of experts has assembled and examined three emerging hydrogen production technologies – photoelectrochemical, biological, and thermochemical. Each of these emerging technologies holds significant long-term potential for cost reduction while lowering industrial emissions associated with conventional methods of hydrogen manufacture (e.g., steam methane reforming) by using sunlight and renewable resources as primary sources of energy and feedstock, respectively. All three are currently at low technology readiness levels, however their applications, cost reduction opportunities and performance improvement pathways are under active development. In this work, opportunities and outlook for research that can directly advance the technologies are discussed.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Seismic Signature of a High-Energy Density Physics Laboratory and Its Potential for Measuring Time-Dependent Velocity Structure

The Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories is a pulsed power facility for high-energy density physics experiments that can shock materials to extreme temperatures and pressures through a focused energy release of up to ~ 25 MJ in < 100 nanoseconds. It has been in operation for more than two decades and conducts up to ~ 100 experiments, or “shots,” per year. Based on a set of 74 known shot times from 2018, we determined that Z Machine shots produce detectable ~ 3–17 Hz ground motion 12 km away at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory, New Mexico (ANMO), borehole seismograph, with peak signal at ~ 7 Hz. The known shot waveforms were used to create a three-component template, leading to the detection of 2339 Z Machine shots since 1998 through single-station cross-correlation. Local seismic magnitude estimates range from local magnitude (M L ) —2 to —1.3 and indicate that only a small fraction of the shot energy is transmitted by seismic phases observable at 12 km distance. The most recent major facility renovation, which was intended to decrease mechanical dissipation, is associated with an abrupt decrease in observed seismic amplitudes at ANMO despite stable maximum shot energy. The highly repetitive impulsive sources are well suited to coda-wave interferometry to investigate time-dependent velocity structures. Relative velocity variations (dv/v) show an annual cycle with amplitude of ~ 0.2%. Local minima are observed in the late spring, and dv/v increases through the summer monsoon rainfall, possibly reflecting patchy saturation as rainfall infiltrates near the eastern edge of the Albuquerque basin. Importantly, the cumulative results demonstrate that forensic seismology can provide insight into long-term operation of facilities such as pulsed-power laboratories, and that their recurring signals may be valuable for studies of time-dependent structure

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of NEAMS Codes to Capture MSR Phenomena

This report documents work completed in FY21 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program’s Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Application Drivers activity at Argonne. The common focus was on identifying the modeling and simulation functional requirements for designing, licensing, and operating MSRs and applying those capabilities already developed in NEAMS tools to example problems of interest. The four main parts of this report each focuses on a specific area of simulation physics as it relates to MSR phenomena: fuel evolution, chemistry, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and systems analysis. In terms of fuel evolution, which includes depletion, decay, on-line separations, and transmutation, the current state of computational capabilities for modeling this behavior in liquid-fueled molten salt reactor is discussed. Some of the functional requirements to accomplish the various applications of MSR fuel depletion modeling are highlighted, followed by a summary of recent approaches and code development activities. The chemistry functional requirements were discussed in the context of several applications of high importance for MSRs, such as corrosion, salt chemistry, and species transport. Each of these types of chemistry modeling have considerable impact on various aspects of reactor applications, including informing on reactor designs, improving operational efficiencies, analyzing safety and reactivity concerns, and estimating the mechanistic source term of the reactor. A brief overview is also provided on code development activities ongoing under NEAMS relevant to chemistry modeling of MSRs. In terms of CFD applications, the state-of-the-art spectral element code, Nek5000 was used to model the fluid dynamics within a full core of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) concept designed as part of the Euratom EVOL project. This concept was selected as the challenge problem because of its similar features to several U.S. industry concepts. The goal was to model some of the fast MSR design challenges, including potential large internal re-circulations, the need of accurate tracking of delayed neutron precursors (DNP), and the lack of relevant thermal-hydraulics models/correlations, etc. Therefore, a series of CFD models were created for the MSFR core cavity using a k – τ model two-equation model for the turbulence. These first full core results demonstrated that any potential recirculation zones could be properly identified with the current NEAMS CFD capabilities. The development of these models will also set the stage for future testing of Nek5000’s functionalities to model other MSR thermal-fluid phenomena. Lastly, the validation of SAM against experimental data from the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment, which started in FY19, continues with the inclusion of modeling the reactivity insertion tests. This involved using SAM and its point kinetics model for flowing fuel salt to recreate the time dependent power changes and response after positive reactivity insertions at the 1, 5, and 8 MWt power levels. Through these exercises, several code modifications were suggested to the SAM development team and accommodated to enable closer agreement with solid technical and physical justifications. These include adding a moderator reactivity feedback coefficient as an available input and modifying the solution approach for the point kinetics model. Additional SAM development suggestions for flowing fuel MSRs include adding the capability to allow the moderator power change proportionally with the reactor power and enabling specification of the power and DNP distributions separately.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2018

42: An Open-Source Simulation Tool for Study and Design of Spacecraft Attitude Control Systems

Simulation is an important tool in the analysis and design of spacecraft attitude control systems. The speaker will discuss the simulation tool, called simply 42, that he has developed over the years to support his own work as an engineer in the Attitude Control Systems Engineering Branch at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. 42 was intended from the outset to be high-fidelity and powerful, but also fast and easy to use. 42 is publicly available as open source since 2014. The speaker will describe some of 42's models and features, and discuss its applicability to studies ranging from early concept studies through the design cycle, integration, and operations. He will outline 42's architecture and share some thoughts on simulation development as a long-term project.

Stoneking, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2024

Connecting radiation-driven changes in structural, thermal, and mechanical properties in several medical device polymers

Stemming from security threats and shortages in supply, a recent push has emerged to develop alternatives to radioisotope Cobalt-60 gamma radiation for sterilization of polymeric medical products, including electron beam (e-beam) and X-ray machine-based sources. However, before large-scale implementation, the effects of these non-isotope-based methods must be thoroughly investigated from several perspectives, involving their potential detrimental effects on the structural, thermal, and mechanical properties of polymers in medical devices. This paper investigates such effects in commonly used medical device polymers, including polypropylene homopolymer (PPH), polyolefin elastomer (POE), low-density polyethylene (LDPE), acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and chlorobutyl rubber (CIIR). To connect radiation-driven changes in polymer structural and thermal properties and corresponding changes in mechanical properties, several characterization techniques were utilized, including gel permeation chromatography (GPC), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). We found that the tensile strength of X-ray irradiated PPH, as well as X-ray, e-beam, and gamma irradiated CIIR decreases due to chain scission, which is corroborated by GPC and DMA. The GPC results of LDPE suggest chain scission, but interestingly without a corresponding decline in tensile strength. By comparison, POE and ABS appear to undergo further crosslinking with increasing irradiation dose, which generally strengthens them. Importantly, in the vast majority of the cases, there were small to no changes in properties upon changing radiation technologies (at a given dose), i.e., no radiation source dependence. However, in a few specific cases, radiation method dependencies did arise, for instance, in terms of the molecular weight of PPH being significantly increased upon X-ray irradiation, while the melting temperature, glass transition temperature, and elongation at break reduced compared to gamma. Overall, this study provides valuable insight into radiation-driven chemical and structural changes in polymers that produce changes in physical and functional properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Literature Data on Foam Fracturing Fluid

At the beginning of this project, the Temple team spent significant effort to collect data relevant to foam fracturing. More than 40 articles/reports were found in the open literature that reported the properties of aqueous foams under various testing conditions. The foam properties included viscosity and stability in terms of half-life, while were influenced by the foam quality, shear rate, temperature, pressure, as well as surfactants and additives used in making the foam base solutions. As a result, more than 1100 data points were collected, which are included in a master worksheet named "Literature data on Foam Fracturing Fluid". These data points are organized based on following parameters: 1. Literature source, including authors and publication year 2. Gaseous phase (e.g. CO2, N2) 3. Liquid phase (e.g. tap water, DI water, salt water) 4. Surfactants and their concentrations 6. Additives 7. Foam quality 8. Pressure 9. Temperature 10. Viscosity 11. Foam stability, which was characterized by its half-life: Half-life Foam study data base with data analysis was completed and a webpage is designed hosted on public server at https://surfactant-dashboard.herokuapp.com

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Imaging Wavepackets in Real-Space & Disentangling Ultrafast Solvation Dynamics with High-Energy Ultrafast X-ray Scattering

The microscopic information of solute and solute-solvent motions can be measured using ultrafast diffuse x-ray scattering, and compared to molecular dynamics simulations, as demonstrated in studies of solvated molecular systems done in X-ray free-electron lasers. However, for the typical photon energies used in these experiments, the photon momentum transfer range was limited to lower Q values where the signals arising from different parts of the studied system overlap significantly. Recently, this limitation was greatly alleviated by extending the photon energy at the Linac Coherent Light-Source (LCLS), significantly increasing the accessible momentum transfer range. This improvement is transformative for ultrafast diffuse x-ray scattering measurements, enabling for the first time to disentangle the solute scattering difference signal, that persists to higher Q values, from the bulk solvent and solute-solvent cross-terms difference signals. In addition, it enhances the prediction ability of modeling and simulation methods such as the hybrid QM/MM approach. The extended Q range also opens the way to resolve in real-space details regarding coherent wavepackets motions beyond their center-of-mass positions. Here, we present the first results on high-energy (18keV) diffuse x-ray scattering in solution, demonstrating high fidelity time-resolved scattering and analysis of the photoexcited model photocatalysts PtPOP ([Pt2(POP)4]4-), and IrDimen ([Ir2(dimen)4]2+) in several solvents. These complexes provide ideal systems for demonstrating the ability of high-Q ultrafast scattering and QM/MM simulations to decompose ultrafast solvation dynamics into specific changes in the solute-solvent pair distribution function with a particular focus on how electronically excited states change the interaction between the solvent and photo-catalytically active metal sites. We introduce an approach to further utilize the high-energy capability and demonstrate a single-shot ultra-wide-angle X-ray Scattering modality using two perpendicular detectors, spanning a scattering angle range of more than 100 degrees, allowing to extend the accessible momentum transfer range up to Q~14 Å-1. We develop a model-free method to invert the x-ray scattering signals and enable the recovery of multiple pair-density motions that happen simultaneously, allowing us to directly measure in real-space nuclear wavepacket motions. . [1] Natan, Adi. "Real-Space Inversion and Super-Resolution of Ultrafast X-ray Scattering using Natural Scattering Kernels." arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.05576 (2021)

Natan, Adi↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Curious Case of PHL 293B: A Long-lived Transient in a Metal-poor Blue Compact Dwarf Galaxy

We report on small-amplitude optical variability and recent dissipation of the unusually persistent broad emission lines in the blue compact dwarf galaxy PHL 293B. The galaxy’s unusual spectral features (P Cygni-like profiles with ~800 km s -1 blueshifted absorption lines) have resulted in conflicting interpretations of the nature of this source in the literature. However, analysis of new Gemini spectroscopy reveals the broad emission has begun to fade after being persistent for over a decade prior. Precise difference imaging light curves constructed with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Dark Energy Survey reveal small-amplitude optical variability of ~0.1 mag in the g band offset by 100 ± 21 pc from the brightest pixel of the host. The light curve is well-described by an active galactic nuclei (AGN)-like damped random walk process. However, we conclude that the origin of the optical variability and spectral features of PHL 293B is due to a long-lived stellar transient, likely a Type IIn supernova or nonterminal outburst, mimicking long-term AGN-like variability. This work highlights the challenges of discriminating between scenarios in such extreme environments, relevant to searches for AGNs in dwarf galaxies. This is the second long-lived transient discovered in a blue compact dwarf, after SDSS1133. Furthermore, our result implies such long-lived stellar transients may be more common in metal-deficient galaxies. Systematic searches for low-level variability in dwarf galaxies will be possible with the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Energy Balance: Reconciling Observations and Models

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over the tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-11 effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean heat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability than do the satellite precipitation observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

High-Resolution X-Ray Spectroscopy of the Seyfert 2 Galaxy Circinus with Chandra

Results from a 60 ks Chandra High Energy Transmission Grating Spectrometer (HETGS) observation of the nearby Seyfert 2 Circinus are presented. The spectrum shows a wealth of emission lines at both soft and hard X-rays, including lines of Ne, Mg, Si, S, Ar, Ca, and Fe, and a prominent Fe K(alpha) line at 6.4 keV. We identify several of the He-like components and measure several of the Lyman lines of the N-like ions. The lines' profiles are unresolved at the limited signal-to-noise ratio of the data. Our analysis of the zeroth-order image in a companion paper constrains the size of the emission region to be 20-60 pc, suggesting that emission within this volume is almost entirely due to the reprocessing of the obscured central source. Here we show that a model containing two distinct components can reproduce almost all the observed properties of this gas. The ionized component can explain the observed intensities of the ionized species, assuming twice-solar composition and an N is proportional r(exp -1.5) density distribution. The neutral component is highly concentrated, well within the 0.8" point source, and is responsible for almost all of the observed K(alpha) (6.4 keV) emission. Circinus seems to be different than Mkn 3 in terms of its gas distribution.

Sambruna, Rita M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Exozodiacal Dust Problem for Direct Observations of ExoEarths

Debris dust in the habitable zones of stars otherwise known as exozodiacal dust comes from extrasolar asteroids and comets and is thus an expected part of a planetary system. Background flux from the Solar Systems zodiacal dust and the exozodiacal dust in the target system is likely to be the largest source of astrophysical noise in direct observations of terrestrial planets in the habitable zones of nearby stars. Furthermore, dust structures like clumps, thought to be produced by dynamical interactions with exoplanets, are a possible source of confusion. In this paper, we qualitatively assess the primary impact of exozodical dust on high-contrast direct imaging at optical wavelengths, such as would be performed with a coronagraph. Then we present the sensitivity of previous, current, and near-term facilities to thermal emission from debris dust at all distances from nearby solar-type stars, as well as our current knowledge of dust levels from recent surveys. Finally, we address the other method of detecting debris dust, through high-contrast imaging in scattered light. This method is currently far less sensitive than thermal emission observations, but provides high spatial resolution for studying dust structures. This paper represents the first report of NASA's Exoplanet Exploration Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG).

Roberge, Aki↗
NASA NTRS2002

A methodology for modeling the mechanical interaction between a reaction wheel and a flexible structure

This paper presents a modeling methodology used to predict the performance of a flexible structure, such as a space telescope, in the presence of an on-board vibrational disturbance source, such as a reaction wheel assembly (RWA). Both decoupled and coupled analysis methods are presented. The decoupled method relies on blocked RWA disturbances, measured with the RWA hardmounted to a rigid surface. The coupled method corrects the blocked RWA disturbance boundary conditions using "force filters," which depend on estimates of the interface accelerances of the RWA and space-craft. Both methods were validated on the Micro-Precision Interferometer testbed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Experimental results are encouraging, indicating that both methods provide sufficient accuracy compared to measured values; however, the coupled method provides the best results when the gyroscopic nature of the spinning RWA is captured in the RWA accelerance model. Additionally, the RWA disturbance cross spectral density terms are found to be influential.

vibration↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-source Techniques for Automated Landslide Inventory Generation for Rapid Response

Manual mapping is the most used method for generating landslide inventories. For rapid response scenario this method becomes tedious and time consuming. The Landslide team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been developing open-source landslide mapping systems for rapid generation of landslide inventories. We have developed a Python-based landslide mapping framework known as the Semi-Automatic Landslide Detection (SALaD) system that uses Object-based Image Analysis and machine learning. For production of event-based inventories, SALaD was modified to include a change detection module (SALaD-CD). Utilizing high-resolution imagery form from Planet and Maxar, we have generated multiple rapid response landslide inventories that have been used by emergency responders on the ground, the NASA Disasters program, and academia. Currently, we are exploiting deep learning frameworks for landslide mapping. We are interested to learn about efficient way to harmonize multi-sensor data for creating a long-term record of landslides, training strategies and ongoing deep learning-based efforts for natural hazard characterization within NASA and UMD.

Pukar Amatya↗
NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗