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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Illinois Compressed Air Energy Storage

Compressed Air Storage Energy (CAES) is one of the few mid- technology readiness level (TRL) energy storage technologies that can address the long-duration infrastructure needed for dealing with variable electric output from renewable energy sources and be reliable backup source for replacing natural gas during supply interruptions. In CAES the goal is to capture and store compressed air in subsurface sedimentary strata when off-peak power is available, or there is a need for grid balancing. The stored high-pressure air is returned to the surface and used to power turbines during reductions in either renewable energy or supply issues with fossil fuels. The Illinois CAES project evaluates the feasibility of capturing surplus electrical energy from renewable sources and off-peak energy at a fossil fuel power plant at the University of Illinois Urbana - Champaign (UIUC) campus. The UIUC Abbott Power Plant uses natural gas and coal to generate electricity (capacity: 35 MWe by coal and 49 MWe by NG). UIUC receives additional electricity from on campus solar farm, and off-campus wind farm. Also, UIUC offsets electricity usage by integrating geothermal energy systems into building heating Also, UIUC offsets steam, hot and chilled water usage by integrating geothermal energy systems into building heating and cooling systems. Furthermore, the two UIUC solar farms (Solar Farm 1 is 21 acres and Solar Farm 2 is 54 acres) to generate 4.68 megawatts (MW) and 12.1 MW, respectively. Campus receives 8.6% of the wind-generated electricity from the Rail Splitter Wind Farm. The project objectives were to design an integrated system to 1) capture surplus electrical energy from renewable sources and the Abbott Power Plant using a CAES system, 2) store both the compressed air and the thermal heat generated by compression in the subsurface as part of an adiabatic system, 3) simulate the movement of the air and heat in the subsurface, 4) recover the compressed air and stored thermal heat to rotate turbine generators during sustained interruption due to weather events or fossil fuel disruptions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

All-Perovskite Tandem Photoelectrodes for Unassisted Solar Hydrogen Production

Unassisted solar water splitting by multi-junction tandem photoelectrodes is a sustainable approach to generating green hydrogen fuels. Here, we report on the fabrication of monolithically integrated all-perovskite tandem photocathodes for efficient unassisted solar water splitting. All-perovskite tandem photocathodes wired to an iridium oxide anode deliver a high photovoltage of more than 2 V with an operating photocurrent density of 12.5 mA cm -2 at zero applied bias under simulated AM1.5G one sun illumination, yielding a solar-to-hydrogen (STH) conversion efficiency of 15%. The tandem photoelectrode demonstrates continuous operation for more than 120 hours in water under simulated one-sun illumination with less than 5% efficiency loss. A technoeconomic analysis shows the projected production cost of all-perovskite tandem photoelectrodes is $\$30$ m -2 , promising a levelized cost of hydrogen of less than $\$1$/kg if sufficient device longevity is realized. Finally, this work provides a path toward achieving cost-effective unassisted solar hydrogen fuel production.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Into the Grid: Key Issues

To foster sustainable, low-emission development, many countries are establishing ambitious renewable energy targets for their electricity supply. The variability of solar and wind compared to traditional sources, coupled with growing demand for electricity, requires changes to power system planning and operations to meet these targets. Grid integration is the practice of developing efficient ways to deliver variable renewable energy (VRE), primarily wind and solar, to the grid. Good integration methods maximize the cost-effectiveness of incorporating VRE while maintaining or increasing system stability and reliability. To inform decarbonization strategies, policymakers, regulators, and system operators consider a variety of costs and opportunities associated with VRE integration, which can be organized into five topics: New renewable energy generation and transmission; Power system reliability; Transmission and distribution coordination; Cross-sectoral decarbonization opportunities; Energy equity and justice.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Latitude Dependence of the Effect of Pinatubo on Stratospheric Ozone

Statistical analysis of TOMS and SBLT total ozone data indicate that the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 led to a significant decrease in ozone at northern midlatitudes with little or no effect at southern midlatitudes. We argue that this puzzling absence of a southern hemisphere effect may be an artifact of the statistical analysis. We have run a 3D CTM simulation of the past 30 years of stratospheric photochemistry with variable forcing due to chlorine/bromine compounds, solar ultraviolet radiation, and volcanic aerosols. This integration used winds from the FVGCM, which has similar interannual variability to the atmosphere. When this CTM output was examined with a standard time-series analysis, we found an effect of Pinatubo in the southern hemisphere, but not in the northern hemisphere. We then reran the CTM without volcanic aerosols. The subtraction of the two simulations indicated that, as expected, that Pinatubo affected both hemispheres in the model. This means that the northern hemisphere effect was in the model but did not show up in the statistical analysis. We also had an on-line parameterized chemical ozone tracer with seasonally repeating production and loss over the simulation. We used this as a dynamical surrogate to remove interannual variability from the original model output. The residual time series was then analyzed for the Pinatubo effect and we were able to find it in both hemispheres. We suggest that the combination of the two volcanoes, El Chichon and Pinatubo, with the solar cycle and interannual variability led to this problem of analysis in the northern hemisphere of our model. We furthermore suggest that a similar think may be occurring in the southern hemisphere of the data. An analysis of the atmosphere's southern hemisphere with a good dynamical surrogate may solve the mystery of the missing southern hemisphere effect of Pinatubo on ozone.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Twenty Years of Radiation Measurements in Low-Earth Orbit - What Have We Learned Space Radiation Environment?

The advent of the Space Shuttle program has made possible space radiation environment measurements spanning a wide range of altitudes and orbital inclinations over multiple solar cycles. These measurements range from routine integral dose measurements with thermoluminescent dosimeters to particle energy spectra measurements made with a charged particle telescope. This paper will review the new understanding about the space radiation environment gained from this diverse data set. Major findings from these measurements include: estimations of the westward drift rate of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) of 0.28-0.49/y; evidence for a northward component to the SAA drift of 0.08-0.12/y; observation of the formation and decay of the pseudo-stable additional radiation belt following the Mar 1991 SPE and geomagnetic storm with an estimated decay e-folding time of 9-10 months; observation of a local geomagnetic east-west trapped proton exposure anisotropy with an estimated magnitude of 1.6-3.3; demonstration that the trapped proton exposure in low-Earth orbit (LEO) can be reasonably modeled as a power law function of atmospheric density in the SAA region, with best correlations obtained when the exospheric temperature saturates at 938-975 K; the actual solar cycle modulation of trapped proton exposure in LEO is less than predicted by the AP8 model; and the testing and validation of GCR flux models, radiation transport codes, and dynamic geomagnetic cutoff models. Long-term, time-resolved proportional counter measurements made aboard the Mir during the same period provides further demonstration of the solar cycle modulation of the trapped protons at low altitudes - the observed modulation is also well described as power law function of atmospheric density. These data and findings have helped to improve the overall accuracy of pre-mission crew exposure projections using various semi-empirical space environment models, radiation transport codes, and spacecraft radiation shielding models. During the rise phase of solar cycle 22 (1987-1991), the RMS error between preflight exposure projections and measured crew exposure was 73%. For the rise phase of cycle 23 (1997-2001), the preflight exposure projection RMS error has decreased to 23%. The launch and assembly of the Space Station has begun a new era of long-term LEO space environment monitoring. The radiation environment at the Space Station will be monitored with three external charged particle telescopes oriented in the velocity vector, anti-velocity vector, and zenith directions. Data from the telescopes will provide charge, mass, energy, and arrival direction for incident particles with energy to mass ratios of 13- 450 MeV/amu and Z of 1-24. The external environment data will be complimented by measurements from a portable charged particle telescope and proportional counter located inside the vehicle.

Golightly, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flexible Operation of Microgrids Through Operator-Configurable Microgrid Controllers

Microgrids are becoming critical assets in power distribution systems. This is partly due to the resiliency and reliability challenges faced by power distribution systems in the last decade and partly due to the increased integration of distributed energy resource assets, such as solar photovoltaic. This increased need for microgrids has created a multitude of needs for microgrid controllers. Most microgrid controllers in the past decade have been uniquely programmed or custom programmed to meet the needs of a specific microgrid. Currently, IEEE standards aim to integrate the needs and capabilities of microgrid controllers under a unified umbrella. But the standards do not recommend necessary or appropriate software development practices for microgrid controllers. In addition, the programmable nature and maintenance of controllers are also key characteristics that fall outside the coverage of the standards. In this paper, we present the best software practices that utility engineers and microgrid operators should consider in the microgrid software platform. This paper can be used as an information document for developing documentation of controller requirements and assessing microgrid controller requirements.

Banshee microgrid↗
NASA NTRS1991

Control-structure interaction study for the Space Station solar dynamic power module

The authors investigate the feasibility of using a conventional PID (proportional plus integral plus derivative) controller design to perform the pointing and tracking functions for the Space Station Freedom solar dynamic power module. Using this simple controller design, the control/structure interaction effects were also studied without assuming frequency bandwidth separation. From the results, the feasibility of a simple solar dynamic control solution with a reduced-order model, which satisfies the basic system pointing and stability requirements, is suggested. However, the conventional control design approach is shown to be very much influenced by the order of reduction of the plant model, i.e., the number of the retained elastic modes from the full-order model. This suggests that, for complex large space structures, such as the Space Station Freedom solar dynamic, the conventional control system design methods may not be adequate.

Cheng, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Changes in Characteristics of Future Climate Across the U.S.: Time Series Analysis of Climate Model Data by NASA POWER

NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the energy, agricultural, and building heating/cooling design industries. POWER packages solar and meteorological data at various temporal levels from several NASA projects in a user friendly GIS-enabled web services system (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). Data users can access these data either through an intuitive data viewer, image services fully integrable with GIS analysis, connections in the cloud through an Amazon Web Services S3 Bucket, or fully customizable access through an API. Data provided by POWER has been used to remotely monitor solar array fields and integrated in a sizing tool for off-grid solar and storage systems. POWER data has also been coupled with key building decision tools to support design and retrofitting of building energy systems for energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gases. POWER is now developing capabilities to provide time series of the projected future evolution of surface quantities important to future energy production and use, such as heating/cooling degree days, temperature, wind speed, and downwelling solar flux. We present here a range of possible future changes in these quantities at locations throughout the continental United States. We show how both average and extreme values of the quantities will evolve from present-day to future climate conditions. We plan to provide these projections for users in the energy and sustainable energy communities.

Bradley M. Hegyi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solution-processed tungsten diselenide as an inorganic hole transport material for moisture-stable perovskite solar cells in the n-i-p architecture

Some of the obstacles to the commercialization of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) are their long-term moisture stability and material cost of the constituent layers, such as the commonly used spiro-OMeTAD hole transport layer (HTL). Replacing the spiro-OMeTAD with low-cost inorganic hole transport materials (HTMs) are important to further elevate the attractiveness of PSCs for commercialization. Perovskite-compatible, solution-exfoliated two-dimensional (2D) transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs) are being considered as viable candidates for inorganic HTMs. We consider one such TMDC, WSe 2 which was chemically exfoliated using dichlorobenzene (DCB), a perovskite-compatible solvent, as it was integrated with triple cation perovskite absorbers within the solar cell stack. Here, the WSe 2 HTL required heat treatment processes to be maintained below 100°C in order to preserve the integrity of the underlying perovskite; despite this lower temperature post treatment process, the structural morphology of the film revealed its dense and pinhole-free nature. Temperature-dependent transport studies conducted on the WSe 2 film provided evidence of its semiconducting character and its ability to extract holes well from the underlying triple-cation Cs 0.05 FA 0.79 MA 0.16 PbI 2.45 Br 0.55 absorber. The inorganic HTL offered better environmental stability in moisture-rich environments of up to 60% relative humidity, in comparison to spiro-OMeTAD HTL-based devices which degraded faster as a result of pinholes

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

TiO 2 /TiN Interface Enables Integration of Ni 5 P 4 Electrocatalyst with a III–V Tandem Photoabsorber for Stable Unassisted Solar-Driven Water Splitting

H 2 production by direct photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splitting has remained unachievable commercially, mainly due to rapid failure at the interface between the photoabsorber(s) and catalyst(s). PEC devices made from multijunction III-V semiconductors with platinum group metal (PGM) catalysts have yielded impressive initial solar-to-H 2 (STH) efficiency >19%, which rapidly corrodes in aqueous electrolytes. Here, TiO 2 /TiN layers were fused to create a bifunctional interface between a GaInP 2 /GaAs III-V tandem photoabsorber and a polycrystalline Ni 5 P 4 HER catalyst. Here, the TiO 2 serves as a conducting corrosion barrier, while a thin layer of much denser TiN (1 nm) blocks interlayer diffusion during fabrication. This strategy allows the elevated temperatures needed to crystallize the Ni 5 P 4 nanoparticles and fuse to the TiO 2 /TiN junction to achieve minimal optical loss without damaging the sensitive photoasbsorber. The resulting photocathode exhibits an initial STH efficiency of 11.4%-13.2% in sodium phosphate electrolyte at neutral pH 7. It operated continuously for over 200 h without failure above 10% STH efficiency, exceeding all previous benchmarks. The earth-abundant Ni 5 P 4 catalyst replaces costly PGM catalysts at comparable HER activity in neutral, acidic, or basic pH electrolytes.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Passivated Contacts for Direct Wafer Product (Final Technical Report)

This TCF project developed a thin-oxide (SiO 2 )/polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) passivated contact solar cell on CubicPV's (formally 1366 Technologies, Inc.) Direct Wafer® Product (DWP) kerfless wafers. The project used two NREL-developed technologies described in U.S. Patent No. 9,911,873, Hydrogenation of Passivated Contacts and U.S. Patent Application Serial No. 15/890,172, Doped Passivated Contacts . The project was motivated by a potential higher efficiency cell (compared to a PERC cell) using passivated contacts on the ultra-low cost kerfless wafers grown using the Direct Wafer process. The hope was to accelerate market adoption of the cell and wafer by delivering the lowest LCOE in the PV industry. The project tested both n-type and p-type SiO 2 /poly-Si passivated contacts grown by thermal oxidation and plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) of the poly-Si layer on DWP with varying wafer resistivities. Both deposition techniques are industry standards and thus economically viable methods for commercializing the contacts. The results indicated that both n-type and p-type poly-Si passivated contacts can be formed on polycrystalline DWP wafers, but implied open-circuit voltages (i Voc ) were limited to below 0.65 mV (compared with ~ 730 mV on n-Cz wafers). Diffusion of H to the Si/SiO 2 /poly-Si interface was key to obtaining high i Voc values. In this study, H was diffused from a high-temperature SiN x layer deposited over the poly-Si layer during a high-temperature firing step, similar to one used for screen printed metals. The study concluded that poly-Si passivated contacts on DWP wafers passivated the surface of the wafers as well as PERC passivated surfaces, which use a less expensive dielectric layer stack. The project showed that Direct Wafer Product wafers grown by CubicPV could produce high i Voc values (~0.647 mV), which could produce a cell over 20% efficient with proper processing and metallization. These cells, though not economically viable in 2024 as a stand-alone cell, could be integrated with a wide-bandgap top solar cell to form a two-junction tandem cell that could be viable under certain circumstances. This is because the bottom cell of a 30%, two-terminal tandem only needs to be a 20% cell under one-sun conditions. Thus, the DWP could be an ideal low-cost wafer for tandems. The project also revealed that a TOPCon type cell could be formed on a p-type DWP wafer using a P-diffused emitter and a p-type poly-Si contact. In fact, the p-type version of the poly-Si contact out-performed the n-type version for a variety of wafer resistivities, from highly doped to lowly doped. This curiosity requires more work to understand because on Cz wafers, the n-type poly-Si contact is of much higher quality than the p-type version.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient tandem solar cells with solution-processed perovskite on textured crystalline silicon

Stacking solar cells with decreasing band gaps to form tandems presents the possibility of overcoming the single-junction Shockley-Queisser limit in photovoltaics. The rapid development of solution-processed perovskites has brought perovskite single-junction efficiencies >20%. However, this process has yet to enable monolithic integration with industry-relevant textured crystalline silicon solar cells. We report tandems that combine solution-processed micrometer-thick perovskite top cells with fully textured silicon heterojunction bottom cells. To overcome the charge-collection challenges in micrometer-thick perovskites, we enhanced threefold the depletion width at the bases of silicon pyramids. Moreover, by anchoring a self-limiting passivant (1-butanethiol) on the perovskite surfaces, we enhanced the diffusion length and further suppressed phase segregation. These combined enhancements enabled an independently certified power conversion efficiency of 25.7% for perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells. These devices exhibited negligible performance loss after a 400-hour thermal stability test at 85°C and also after 400 hours under maximum power point tracking at 40°C.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2018

The SPACE Computer Code for Analyzing the International Space Station Electrical Power System: Past, Present, and Future

The System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) computer code was initially developed by NASA in 1988 to assess the Space Station Freedom electric power system and later adapted to support contractor electrical power system capability analyses for the International Space Station (ISS). Over time, the code has supported many efforts such as ISS redesign activities in the early 1990s, assessment of time-phased loads against power system operating limits for future ISS assembly flights (including Certification of Flight Readiness reviews by the ISS program office), and determining the optimum solar array gimbal positions while respecting keep-out zones which minimize both solar array contamination and structural loads. The code has been validated by comparisons with ISS on-orbit data in multiple validation episodes. Recent updates to the code include the incorporation of a Lithium-Ion battery model in addition to the Nickel Hydrogen battery model and modifications to the solar array degradation model to better match on-orbit test results. SPACE has also been extended beyond the ISS to include modeling of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle electrical power system (SPACE-MPCV) and Mars Surface Electrical Power Systems (MSEPS). Portions of SPACE were integrated with a trajectory code to form a Solar Electric Propulsion Simulation (SEPSim), which can be used for analyzing solar electric propulsion missions. In addition, SPACE methods and subroutines have been adapted to a multitude of other projects. This paper summarizes the initial code development and subsequent code utilization in the context of the overall ISS program development and on-orbit operations. Recent updates and results from the code are discussed, including preliminary analyses for the Orion power system.

Electrical Power System↗
DOE OSTI2024

Final Technical Report

The capture of CO2 and its simultaneously conversion to useful chemical fuels driven by solar energy represents one of the best solutions to resolve our growing energy and environmental concerns. The most critical challenge to this endeavor is the rational design of a photocatalytic architecture that can effectively couple a given photosensitizer (PS) with an appropriate catalyst, thereby enabling efficient photosensitization of a multi-electron reduction catalysis. This research program aims to address this challenge using an interdisciplinary approach that combines innovative material design and synthesis, fundamental mechanistic studies, and photocatalytic performance evaluation. The strategies include 1) constructing and investigating a novel class of 2D COF hybrid photocatalysts with an effective photoactive organic building block as PS and a precisely incorporated CO2 reduction molecular catalyst (MC); and 2) mechanistic origins of CO2 photoreduction using a set of complementary time-resolved and in situ spectroscopic techniques. The novelty of the proposed hybrid system lies in the unprecedented combination of the unique advantage of porous crystalline COF PS with the precise catalytic function of MC for photocatalytic CO2 reduction. In the periods of the support (09/01/2019-12/31/2022), we have made research progress in four projects: 1) Exploring 2D COFs with incorporated Mn complex for light driven CO2 reduction; 2) The dependence of excited state and charge transfer dynamics on monomer structure of 2D COFs; and 3) Control over Charge Separation by Imine Structural Isomerization in Covalent Organic Frameworks with Implications on CO2 Photoreduction; and 4) The impact of monomer structure on the photoluminescence properties of COFs. We found that both monomer structure and linker chemistry can effectively impact the excited state dynamics, charge transfer properties, and photoluminescence quantum yields, the important properties that dictate their applications in photocatalysis. In addition, we found that the direction of imine linker determines charge transfer direction and thus controls the types of catalytic reactions (e.g. water oxidation or CO2 reduction reactions). The result from these fundamental studies provides important information for correlating the structure of the COF photocatalysts with their photophysical properties and catalytic functions, paving the way for their novel application in photocatalysis. We expect that our findings will contribute to addressing current shortcomings of semiconductor- and molecular-based photocatalytic systems that suffer from inefficient light harvesting and charge separation and poor adsorption and activation of reactants. In turn, this research will contribute towards the development of novel photocatalytic systems for CO2 reduction to generate renewable chemical fuels and simultaneously address the problem of mitigating climate change due to CO2 accumulation. In addition, the experimental approaches employed in this research can be easily transferred to other energy technologies and are expected to broadly impact fields involving photocatalysis, optoelectronic devices, and solar energy conversion. The proposed research has also been integrated with educational activities and serve as a basis to raise awareness around the critical issues of global energy production and consumption, and to develop the next generation of solar energy scientists.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Absorbing the Sun: Operational Practices and Balancing Reserves in Florida's Municipal Utilities

The Florida Reliability Coordinating Council (FRCC) power system is comprised of multiple balancing authorities ranging in size from Gainesville Regional Utilities (GRU) with a 2019 summer net firm demand of 429 MW to Florida Power & Light with a 2019 summer net firm demand of 22,510 MW; and including cooperative, municipal, and investor-owned utilities. As all of these balancing authorities are and have plants to continue installing significant quantities of utility-scale solar photovoltaics, one relevant question is how much operating reserves they will need to hold as solar penetrations increase. While there are estimates of how regulating and flexibility reserve requirements change with solar penetration, the literature almost exclusively focuses on large balancing authorities with sub-hourly dispatch. In this work we analyze how reserve needs change not only with solar photovoltaic penetration, but also balancing authority size and operational practices. We find that, measured as a fraction of load, smaller balancing authorities with less frequent load and solar forecasts and less frequent dispatch need more reserves. Such utilities' reserve needs also increase more with increasing solar deployment as compared to larger or more frequently dispatched balancing authorities. These impacts are most acute for GRU. We find that moving from day-ahead to hour-ahead load and solar forecasting and system dispatch could enable GRU to incorporate 32% solar generation with median reserves at 20% instead of 60% of load; and that median reserve needs could drop further to about 10% of load if Florida's municipal utilities formed a reserve sharing group and moved to sub-hourly dispatch.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1983

A new system for observing solar oscillations at the Mount Wilson Observatory. I - System design and installation

An observation system designed to obtain daily measurements of solar photospheric and subphotospheric rotational velocities, from the frequency splitting of nonradial solar p-mode oscillations of degree greater than 150, is nearing completion of the Mount Wilson Observatory. The system will combine a 244 x 248 pixel CID camera with a high speed floating point array processor, a 32-bit minicomputer, and a large capacity disk storage system. These components will be integrated into the spectrograph of the 60-foot solar tower telescope at Mount Wilson.

Rhodes, E. J., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗