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At least 991 records · Page 55

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: Issues and perspectives

The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd,ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions which also comprises rapid adjustments. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd,ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large scale (hundreds of kilometres) ΔNd,ant remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and vertical wind and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of 10s of metres at which only localized observations are available and at which no approach exists yet to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are three key uncertainties in determining ΔNd,ant, namely the quantification (i) of the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (CCN) at or above cloud base –, (ii) of Nd, as well as (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data. A fourth uncertainty, the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, is also not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: In terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, the non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, the impossibility to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilizing colocated polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high spectral resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximize vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity, and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd – to – CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

Twomey effect↗

Studies of dynamical processes affecting the distribution of stratospheric ozone

The purpose of the research was to understand large-scale tracer transport processes in the stratosphere. Two approaches were taken. The first is analysis of tracer observations, especially satellite observations of ozone concentration and total column ozone. The second is numerical simulation of tracer transport processes. Topics researched include: quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratospheric ozone; mixing in the polar vortices; polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) properties from Antarctic lidar data; and statistical methods for numerical experiments.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity

Abstract The climate sensitivity of global climate models (GCMs) strongly influences projected climate change due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Reasonably, the climate sensitivity of a GCM may be expected to affect dynamically downscaled projections. However, there has been little examination of the effect of the climate sensitivity of GCMs on regional climate model (RCM) ensembles. Therefore, we present projections of temperature and precipitation from the ensemble of projections produced as a part of the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) in the context of their relationship to the climate sensitivity of their parent GCMs. NA-CORDEX simulations were produced at 50-km and 25-km resolutions with multiple RCMs which downscaled multiple GCMs that spanned nearly the full range of climate sensitivity available in the CMIP5 archive. We show that climate sensitivity is a very important source of spread in the NA-CORDEX ensemble, particularly for temperature. Temperature projections correlate with driving GCM climate sensitivity annually and seasonally across North America not only at a continental scale but also at a local-to-regional scale. Importantly, the spread in temperature projections would be reduced if only low, mid, or high climate sensitivity simulations were considered, or if only the ensemble mean were considered. Precipitation projections correlate with climate sensitivity, but only at a continental scale during the cold season, due to the increasing influence of other processes at finer scales. Additionally, it is shown that the RCMs do alter the projection space sampled by their driving GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Human activities shape global patterns of decomposition rates in rivers

Rivers and streams contribute to global carbon cycling by decomposing immense quantities of terrestrial plant matter. However, decomposition rates are highly variable and large-scale patterns and drivers of this process remain poorly understood. Using a cellulose-based assay to reflect the primary constituent of plant detritus, we generated a predictive model (81% variance explained) for cellulose decomposition rates across 514 globally distributed streams. A large number of variables were important for predicting decomposition, highlighting the complexity of this process at the global scale. Predicted cellulose decomposition rates, when combined with genus-level litter quality attributes, explain published leaf litter decomposition rates with high accuracy (70% variance explained). Finally, our global map provides estimates of rates across vast understudied areas of Earth and reveals rapid decomposition across continental-scale areas dominated by human activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multiprocessing architecture for real-time monitoring

A multiprocessing architecture for performing real time monitoring and analysis using knowledge-based problem solving techniques is discussed. To handle asynchronous inputs and perform in real time, the system consists of three or more separate processes which run concurrently on one or more processors and communicate via a message passing scheme. The Data Management Process gathers, compresses, scales and sends the incoming telemetry data to other tasks. The Inference Process consists of a proprietary high performance inference engine that runs at 1000 rules per second using telemetry data to perform real time analysis on the state and health of the Space Telescope. The multiprocessing architecture has been interfaced to a simulator and is able to process the incoming telemetry in real time.

Laffey, Thomas J.↗

Variability of pigment biomass in the California Current system as determined by satellite imagery. I - Spatial variability

Spatial variability of chlorophyll in the California Current system was analyzed using Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) imagery. A total of 48 images were analyzed to produce seasonal averages and variances, gradients, and power spectra. Roughly one third to one half of the variance in pigment biomass can be explained by consistent, large-scale gradients. In general, biomass is higher in the north and in nearshore areas. Nearshore areas also have proportionally more small-scale variability than the areas offshore. Slopes of the power spectra for nearshore areas are about -2.2 (for spatial scales of 10-100 km), while slopes for offshore areas are about -3. In addition, the power spectra show evidence of a change in slope at about 10 km, with slopes of about -1 for shorter-length scales. This may indicate that biological processes dominate the smaller scales, while mesoscale eddies and geostrophic currents dominate the larger scales.

Smith, Raymond C.↗

Session on modeling of radiative transfer processes

The session on modeling of radiative transfer processes is reviewed. Six critical issues surfaced in the discussion concerning scale-interactive radiative processes relevent to the mesoscale convective systems (MCS's). These issues are the need to expand basic knowledge of how MCS's influence climate through extensive cloud shields and increased humidity in the upper troposphere; to improve radiation parameterizations used in mesoscale and General Circulation Model (GCM) models; to improve our basic understanding of the influence of radiation on MCS dynamics due to diabatic heating, production of condensate, and vertical and horizontal heat fluxes; to quantify our understanding of radiative impacts of MCS's on the surface and free atmosphere energy budgets; to quantify and identify radiative and microphysical processes important in the evolution of MCS's; and to improve the capability to remotely sense MCS radiative properties from space and ground-based systems.

Flatau, Piotr↗

Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola↗

[Multi-Scale Convergence of Cold-Land Process Representation in Land-Surface Models, Microwave Remote Sensing, and Field Observations]

The cryosphere is a major component of the hydrosphere and interacts significantly with the global climate system, the geosphere, and the biosphere. Measurement of the amount of water stored in the snow pack and forecasting the rate of melt are thus essential for managing water supply and flood control systems. Snow hydrologists are confronted with the dual problems of estimating both the quantity of water held by seasonal snow packs and time of snow melt. Monitoring these snow parameters is essential for one of the objectives of the Earth Science Enterprise-understanding of the global hydrologic cycle. Measuring spatially distributed snow properties, such as snow water equivalence (SWE) and wetness, from space is a key component for improvement of our understanding of coupled atmosphere-surface processes. Through the GWEC project, we have significantly advanced our understandings and improved modeling capabilities of the microwave signatures in response to snow and underground properties.

Shi, Jiancheng↗

Recent Progress in the Engineering of Polymeric Membranes for CO2 Capture from Flue Gas

CO2 capture from coal- or natural gas-derived flue gas has been widely considered as the next opportunity for the large-scale deployment of gas separation membranes. Despite the tremendous progress made in the synthesis of polymeric membranes with high CO2/N2 separation performance, only a few membrane technologies were advanced to the bench-scale study or above from a highly idealized laboratory setting. Therefore, the recent progress in polymeric membranes is reviewed in the perspectives of capture system energetics, process synthesis, membrane scale-up, modular fabrication, and field tests. These engineering considerations can provide a holistic approach to better guide membrane research and accelerate the commercialization of gas separation membranes for post-combustion carbon capture.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A Principled Approach to the Specification of System Architectures for Space Missions

Modern space systems are increasing in complexity and scale at an unprecedented pace. Consequently, innovative methods, processes, and tools are needed to cope with the increasing complexity of architecting these systems. A key systems challenge in practice is the ability to scale processes, methods, and tools used to architect complex space systems. Traditionally, the process for specifying space system architectures has largely relied on capturing the system architecture in informal descriptions that are often embedded within loosely coupled design documents and domain expertise. Such informal descriptions often lead to misunderstandings between design teams, ambiguous specifications, difficulty in maintaining consistency as the architecture evolves throughout the system development life cycle, and costly design iterations. Therefore, traditional methods are becoming increasingly inefficient to cope with ever-increasing system complexity. We apply the principles of component-based design and platform-based design to the development of the system architecture for a practical space system to demonstrate feasibility of our approach using SysML. Our results show that we are able to apply a systematic design method to manage system complexity, thus enabling effective data management, semantic coherence and traceability across different levels of abstraction in the design chain. Just as important, our approach enables interoperability among heterogeneous tools in a concurrent engineering model based design environment.

platform-based design↗

Characterizing Lunar Polar Volatiles at the Working Scale: Going from Exploration Goals to Mission Requirements

The economic evaluation of natural resources depends on the accuracy of resource distribution estimates. On Earth such estimates are necessary in making decisions about opening new mines or in planning future investment for operating mines or industrial deposits. A frequently discussed lunar resource is water ice, however, we are only at the first stages of understanding its potential as a resource. In particular, we currently do not have a sufficient understanding of the distribution of water or its form at the scales it would be extracted and processed, that is, the “working scale”. Here the “working scale” is defined to be the scales at which sufficient material can be processed to meet some basic demand (for example, 100s of square meters), and the anticipated heterogeneity in the water distribution across those scales (scales <5 - 10s of meters). Several mission concepts have been developed to better understand lunar water, motivated by both scientific and exploration goals. This paper provides an analysis of the number and distribution of observations needed to provide the necessary next steps in lunar water ISRU. We use a combination of Monte Carlo studies and classic geostatistical approaches to go from the exploration goal of “understand the distribution of water” to quantification of specific mission sampling requirements.

Colaprete, A.↗

Using aircraft measurements to characterize subgrid-scale variability of aerosol properties near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site

Abstract. Complex distributions of aerosol properties evolve in space and time as a function of emissions, new particle formation, coagulation, condensational growth, chemical transformation, phase changes, turbulent mixing and transport, removal processes, and ambient meteorological conditions. The ability of chemical transport models to represent the multi-scale processes affecting the life cycle of aerosols depends on their spatial resolution since aerosol properties are assumed to be constant within a grid cell. Subgrid-scale-dependent processes that affect aerosol populations could have a significant impact on the formation of particles, their growth to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) sizes, aerosol–cloud interactions, dry deposition and rainout and hence their burdens, lifetimes, and radiative forcing. To address this issue, we characterize subgrid-scale variability in terms of measured aerosol number, size, composition, hygroscopicity, and CCN concentrations made by repeated aircraft flight paths over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystem (HI-SCALE) campaign. Subgrid variability is quantified in terms of both normalized frequency distributions and percentage difference percentiles using grid spacings of 3, 9, 27, and 81 km that represent those typically used by cloud-system-resolving models as well as the current and next-generation climate models. Even though the SGP site is a rural location, surprisingly large horizontal gradients in aerosol properties were frequently observed. For example, 90 % of the 3, 9, and 27 km cell mean organic matter concentrations differed from the 81 km cell around the SGP site by as much as ∼ 46 %, large spatial variability in aerosol number concentrations and size distributions were found during new particle formation events, and consequently 90 % of the 3, 9, and 27 km cell mean CCN number concentrations differed from the 81 km cell mean by as much as ∼ 38 %. The spatial variability varied seasonally for some aerosol properties, with some having larger spatial variability during the spring and others having larger variability during the late summer. While measurements at a single surface site cannot reflect the surrounding variability of aerosol properties at a given time, aircraft measurements that are averaged within an 81 km cell were found to be similar to many, but not all, aerosol properties measured at the ground SGP site. This analysis suggests that it is reasonable to directly compare most ground SGP site aerosol measurements with coarse global climate model predictions. In addition, the variability quantified by the aircraft can be used as an uncertainty range when comparing the surface point measurements with model predictions that use coarse grid spacings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗