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On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities with copula dependence

This paper addresses the problem of quantification and propagation of uncertainties associated with dependence modeling when data for characterizing probability models are limited. Practically, the system inputs are often assumed to be mutually independent or correlated by a multivariate Gaussian distribution. However, this subjective assumption may introduce bias in the response estimate if the real dependence structure deviates from this assumption. In this work, we overcome this limitation by introducing a flexible copula dependence model to capture complex dependencies. Here, a hierarchical Bayesian multimodel approach is proposed to quantify uncertainty in dependence model-form and model parameters that result from small data sets. This approach begins by identifying, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate marginal models and their corresponding model probabilities, and then estimating the uncertainty in the copula-based dependence structure, which is conditional on the marginals and their parameters. The overall uncertainties integrating marginals and copulas are probabilistically represented by an ensemble of multivariate candidate densities. A novel importance sampling reweighting approach is proposed to efficiently propagate the overall uncertainties through a computational model. Through an example studying the influence of constituent properties on the out-of-plane properties of transversely isotropic E-glass fiber composites, we show that the composite property with copula-based dependence model converges to the true estimate as data set size increases, while an independence or arbitrary Gaussian correlation assumption leads to a biased estimate.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Weak Scale Supersymmetry Emergent from the String Landscape

Superstring flux compactifications can stabilize all moduli while leading to an enormous number of vacua solutions, each leading to different 4−d laws of physics. While the string landscape provides at present the only plausible explanation for the size of the cosmological constant, it may also predict the form of weak scale supersymmetry which is expected to emerge. Rather general arguments suggest a power-law draw to large soft terms, but these are subject to an anthropic selection of a not-too-large value for the weak scale. The combined selection allows one to compute relative probabilities for the emergence of supersymmetric models from the landscape. Models with weak scale naturalness appear most likely to emerge since they have the largest parameter space on the landscape. For finetuned models such as high-scale SUSY or split SUSY, the required weak scale finetuning shrinks their parameter space to tiny volumes, making them much less likely to appear compared to natural models. Probability distributions for sparticle and Higgs masses from natural models show a preference for Higgs mass mh∼125 GeV, with sparticles typically beyond the present LHC limits, in accord with data. From these considerations, we briefly describe how natural SUSY is expected to be revealed at future LHC upgrades. This article is a contribution to the Special Edition of the journal Entropy, honoring Paul Frampton on his 80th birthday.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Second ARM Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor Users’ Meeting Report

The aerosol chemical speciation monitor (ACSM) was developed to adapt the technology of the aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) to routine, long-term, standalone monitoring. The calculation of particulate mass concentration from ACSM data requires the measurement of the response of the instrument to aerosol of specific size and composition as well as assumptions about the instrument response based on laboratory measurements and field experience acquired over more than two decades of operation of AMS and a decade of operation of the ACSM. Three parameters in the concentration calculations that are particularly important are the NO3 response factor (RFNO3), relative ionization efficiency (RIE), and the collection efficiency (CE). The values of RFNO3 and RIEs are determined from calibration, however the jump calibration method previously used in calibration can result in errors in the RIE for sulfate. This has been corrected by implementing a continuous calibration method. The default collection efficiency is 0.5. This has been shown to result in mass loadings that do not agree with mass determinations from other instruments because of effects of composition on the vaporization of the particles. The previous work of investigators addressing this issue is discussed. After preliminary work on ACSM and scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) data from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory collected in late 2016 and 2017 produced a parameterization of composition dependent collection efficiency very different from the results of previous studies, SMPS data were examined and we determined that there was significant mass that the instrument did not capture because the particles with diameters larger than 465 nm are not counted by this instrument. Data for the ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS), SMPS, and ACSM are available for nearly all of 2019. The data from UHSAS and SMPS collected in 2019 were compared. We found that the UHSAS data has particle counts and total volumes significantly less than measured by the condensation particle counter (CPC) and SMPS. The SMPS data were extended by fitting the average volume distribution with a log normal curve and using this relationship to estimate a mass value for the SMPS over extended diameter range. The extended SMPS mass values result in a CDCE parameterization that is in better agreement with the results of other investigators, but is still different from other formulations. The working group recommends that the ACSM data be processed with a collective efficiency (CE)=1, that this be documented clearly in the metadata, and the use of the default CE of 0.5 or a formulation of composition-dependent collection efficiencies (CDCE) chosen by the user should be implemented based on the ammonium nitrate mass fraction. This is clearly necessary for the wintertime SGP ACSM data because of the high nitrate concentrations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

EMPDF : inferring the Milky Way mass with data-driven distribution function in phase space

We introduce the emPDF (empirical distribution function), a novel dynamical modelling method that infers the gravitational potential from kinematic tracers with optimal statistical efficiency under the minimal assumption of steady state. emPDF determines the best-fitting potential by maximizing the similarity between instantaneous kinematics and the time-averaged phase-space distribution function (DF), which is empirically constructed from observation upon the theoretical foundation of oPDF (Han et al. 2016). This approach eliminates the need for presumed functional forms of DFs or orbit libraries required by conventional DF- or orbit-based methods. emPDF stands out for its flexibility, efficiency, and capability in handling observational effects, making it preferable to the popular Jeans equation or other minimal assumption methods, especially for the Milky Way (MW) outer halo where tracers often have limited sample size and poor data quality. We apply emPDF to infer the MW mass profile using Gaia DR3 data of satellite galaxies and globular clusters, obtaining enclosed masses of M (,r) = 26±8, 46±8, 90±13⁠, and 149±40 x 10 10 M ⊙ at r = 30, 50, 100⁠, and 200 kpc, respectively. These are consistent with the updated constraints from simulation-informed DF fitting (Li et al. 2020). While the simulation-informed DF offers superior precision owing to the additional information extracted from simulations, emPDF is independent of such supplementary knowledge and applicable to general tracer populations. emPDF is currently implemented for tracers with complete 6D kinematics within spherical potentials, but it can potentially be extended to address more general problems.

Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA)↗

Photometric Properties of Jupiter Trojans Detected by the Dark Energy Survey

The Jupiter Trojans are a large group of asteroids that are coorbiting with Jupiter near its L4 and L5 Lagrange points. The study of Jupiter Trojans is crucial for testing different models of planet formation that are directly related to our understanding of solar system evolution. In this work, we select known Jupiter Trojans listed by the Minor Planet Center from the full six years data set (Y6) of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to analyze their photometric properties. The DES data allow us to study Jupiter Trojans with a fainter magnitude limit than previous studies in a homogeneous survey with griz band measurements. We extract a final catalog of 573 unique Jupiter Trojans. Our sample include 547 asteroids belonging to L5. This is one of the largest analyzed samples for this group. By comparing with the data reported by other surveys we found that the color distribution of L5 Trojans is similar to that of L4 Trojans. We find that L5 Trojans’ g − i and g − r colors become less red with fainter absolute magnitudes, a trend also seen in L4 Trojans. Both the L4 and L5 clouds consistently show such a color–size correlation over an absolute magnitude range 11 < H < 18. We also use DES colors to perform taxonomic classifications. C- and P-type asteroids outnumber D-type asteroids in the L5 Trojans DES sample, which have diameters in the 5–20 km range. This is consistent with the color–size correlation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Study of the Mu2e sensitivity to the $\mu^-\rightarrow e^+$ conversion process

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab (Batavia, IL) will search for the coherent neutrinoless conversion of a muon into an electron in the electric field of an aluminum atom. The conversion process results in a monochromatic electron with energy slightly below the muon rest mass ($E_e= 104.97$ MeV). The experiment goal is to improve the previous measurement by four orders of magnitude and reach a single event sensitivity of $3 \times 10^{-17} $ on the conversion rate with respect to the muon capture rate. \\ The experiment will deliver a very intense pulsed negative muon beam to an aluminum target to achieve a total number of $10^{18}$ stopped muons in three years of running. Production and transport of the muons are accomplished with a sophisticated magnetic system comprised of a Production, a Transport and a Detector solenoid, with the last one hosting a Straw-tube Tracker and a Crystal Calorimeter. The entire detector region is surrounded by a Cosmic Ray Veto system. Mu2e is und er construction at the Muon Campus of Fermilab. \\ The INFN italian group is responsible for the design and construction of the crystal calorimeter, which plays a crucial role in the Mu2e measurement, providing particle identification capabilities fundamental for the rejection of the different background sources that can mimic a conversion electron. The calorimeter information allows also to improve the tracking performances it provides a fast standalone trigger for the experiment.\\ After a long R\&D phase, the final drawings see a calorimeter comprised of 1348 pure CsI crystals arranged in two annular disks. Each crystal is readout by two custom UV-extended Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs). Performances of the selected components were verified with an electron beam test, carried out in 2017 at the Beam Test Facility (BTF) at the National Laboratories of Frascati, on a large size prototype of 51 crystals and 102 SiPMs, confirming excellent energy ($\sigma_{E}/E = \mathcal{O }(10\%)$) and timing ($\sigma_{T} <500$ ps) resolutions in a! greement with the Mu2e specifications.\\ In the first chapters of this thesis, I describe my involvement in the calorimeter activities, with particular emphasis on the data analysis of the prototype energy response and resolution, that I was personally leading. Moreover, a description of the tuning of the simulation and the careful data-MC comparison is also reported.\\ An auxiliary measurement that can be performed with Mu2e is the search for a Lepton Number Violation (LNV) process where the negatively charged muon converts, without neutrinos, into a positron, $\mu ^{-} +N(A,Z) \rightarrow $ e$^+ +N(A,Z-2)$. At the moment of writing, Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay (0$\nu \beta \beta$) has set the most stringent limit on the LNV processes (T$^{0\nu \beta \beta}_{1/2} > 1.1 \times 10^{26} $ yr at 90$\%$ CL) with the GERDA experiment. In 0$\nu \beta \beta$ a pair of free electrons is created in the transformation from a nucleus $(A, Z)$ into its daughter $(A, Z + 2)$, namely: $(A,Z)\rightarrow (A, Z+2) =2 e^-$. Similar transitions could proceed through the emission of a pair of positrons, double electron capture (EC), or EC and single emission of a positron, with the nucleus changing from $(A, Z)$ to $(A, Z - 2)$. All these variations are equally interesting when discussing of new Physics, since they all manifest a non-conservation of the number of leptons.\\ Moreover, recent studies show that, because of flavor effect, off-diagonal processes, such as the $\mu^- -e^+$ conversion, can have their rate enhanced with respect to processes occurring in the $e-e$ sector.\\ Mu2e will search for $\mu^- + Al(27,13) \rightarrow e^+ +Na(27,11)$, only considering ground state transition, producing a conversion positron with energy $E_{e^+}= 92.32 $ MeV.\\ This thesis is focused on this search. In particular, I developed an algorithm to account for the radiative corrections to be applied to the conversion positrons that resulted in a few percent reduction in s ignal acceptance.\\ One of the most prominent background to ! this sear! ch is the Radiative Muon Capture (RMC) $ \mu+ N(Z,A)\rightarrow \gamma + \nu_{\mu} + N(Z-1,A)$. The produced photon can convert, virtually or in the detector materials (in the following referred as internal or external conversion respectively) in an electron-positron pair, producing positrons with energies approaching the expected conversion energy. Experimental results from previous experiments indicate the RMC endpoint ($\kmax$) to be of $\sim$ 90 MeV. A precise modeling of this background is relevant due to the proximity of the photon spectrum endpoint to the positron conversion energy. The calorimeter group is obviously interested to reconstruct the RMC distribution having also the opportunity to improve the current knowledge of the process. \\ A toy MC has been developed to evaluate the number of $e^+$ from external RMC background in the signal window. Knowing this value and ev...

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Light-front wavefunctions of mesons by design

Abstract We develop a mechanism to build the light-front wavefunctions (LFWFs) of meson bound states on a small-sized basis function representation. Unlike in a standard Hamiltonian formalism, the Hamiltonian in this method is implicit, and the information of the system is carried directly by the functional form and adjustable parameters of the LFWFs. In this work, we model the LFWFs for four charmonium states, $$\eta _c$$ η c , $$J/\psi $$ J / ψ , $$\psi '$$ ψ ′ , and $$\psi (3770)$$ ψ ( 3770 ) as superpositions of orthonormal basis functions. We choose the basis functions as eigenfunctions of an effective Hamiltonian, which has a longitudinal confining potential in addition to the transverse confining potential from light-front holographic QCD. We determine the basis function parameters and superposition coefficients by employing both guidance from the nonrelativistic description of the meson states and the experimental measurements of the meson decay widths. With the obtained wavefunctions, we study the features of those meson states, including charge radii and parton distribution functions. We use the $$J/\psi $$ J / ψ LFWF to calculate the meson production in diffractive deep inelastic scattering and ultra-peripheral heavy-ion collisions, and the $$\eta _c$$ η c LFWF to calculate its diphoton transition form factor. Both results show good agreement with experiments. The obtained LFWFs have simple-functional forms and can be readily used to predict additional experimental observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Contactless Position Measurement System for Remote Alignment of Highly Reflective Objects

The Contactless Position Measurement System (CPMS) permits automatic alignment of highly-reflecting components that cannot or should not be touched by human hands, such as those used in SRF cavities. CPMS also has application during maintenance of fusion reactors, when the components in the reactor are radioactive. The length of time for which humans can handle the components in order to carry out maintenance or repairs is limited. We would like to measure the relative positions of such objects so we can bring them into alignment with motorized stages, thus eliminating the need for human contact. The CPMS is a computer vision system that measures the location of highly reflective components to within a fraction of a millimeter by finding the edges of silhouette images. This is done by placing a uniform, infrared backlight behind the components, and viewing each component with two low-aberration, infrared cameras. Each of these stereoscopic cameras are located within a coordinate system we set up with reference platforms, light sources, and survey cameras distributed around the perimeter of the string assembly room, or fusion reactor. We obtain stereoscopic silhouette images of each component, and we use these to determine the position of the component within our string assembly coordinate system. The CPMS combines the silhouette images with knowledge of the dimensions of the objects to obtain the relative positions of components in its field of view. These position measurements then allow us to mechanically maneuver the components into contact. Once we know where they are, we can move the components to where they are supposed to be with motorized stages or other mechanical means, check they are in the right place, and bolt them together. In Phase I, we built a prototype infrared backlights and cameras, tested it, wrote an analysis program to fit the images. At a range of 50 cm, we are able to measure the relative positions of two stainless steel flanges with an accuracy of 150 μm rms. The next steps are to test the analysis program with motorized stages, build a full-size prototype, and implement it in an cleanroom with SRF cavity assembly. This can be done in a cost effective way given the materials with which the system is designed. As Open Source Instruments achieved more in Phase I than anticipated, despite not receiving a Phase II SBIR grant, we hope to move forward with product development and sales with a testing partner.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Characterization of Arsenic and Selenium in Coal Fly Ash to Improve Evaluations for Disposal and Reuse Potential (Final Technical Report)

Coal fly ash is a high volume waste material that is discarded in landfills and surface water impoundments across the U.S. and is also widely recycled for a variety of applications. The leaching of potential of contaminants of concern, such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se), is often the driver of risk assessments for coal ash disposal and reuse. The extent of leachable As and Se depends on several factors related to environmental conditions and fly ash characteristics. Previous studies employed various methods to delineate the concentration, chemical form, and distribution of As and Se in fly ash materials. However, few studies have attempted to directly correlate these properties to mobilization parameters relevant to disposal and reuse. Instead, the coal residuals industries often rely upon standardized leaching protocols that can be laborious or involve hazardous chemicals. The goals of the project were to: 1) Develop and evaluate a characterization protocol that can be used to screen fly ash samples for leachability of As and Se; 2) Characterize As, Se, and associated constituents of fly ash particles at multiple length scales (nanometer to micrometer) to determine if elemental associations differ as a function of the resolution of characterization; and 3) Establish a predictive model for the chemical composition of coal ash produced annually at major U.S. coal fired power facilities on 50-year national coal supply records. For the first objective, we performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic coal regions. For this work, we assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition (LOI) and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As, but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash. For the second objective, we utilized nanoscale 2-D imaging (30-50 nm spot size) with the Hard X-ray Nanoprobe (HXN) in combination with microprobe X-ray capabilities (~5 µm resolution) to determine As and Se elemental associations in fly ash particles. Speciation of As and Se was also measured at the nano- to microscale with X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The enhanced resolution of HXN showed As and Se that were diffusely located around or comingled with Ca- and Fe-rich particles. The results also showed nanoparticles of Se attached to the surface of fly ash grains. Overall, a comparison of As and Se species across scales highlights the heterogeneity and complexity of chemical associations for these trace elements of concern in coal fly ash. For the final objective, we developed a predictive model for major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973-2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe 2 O 3 ), as coal-fired power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of coal ash chemical composition that is stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help delineate the regional market potential for material applications that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Are Marine Low Cloud Droplet Concentrations Buffered by Entrained Aitken‐Mode Aerosol (Final Technical Report)

During the summertime, the high-latitude oceans come to life with green phytoplankton, which gain their energy from sunlight and are food for sea creatures small and large. When the phytoplankton are eaten or die, sulfur-rich gases are released under the ocean surface and mix into the air. Observations suggest that, over the Southern Ocean, frequent storms lift this air high into the atmosphere while raining out particulates like salt. As a result, the sulfur-rich air then spawns high concentrations of small ‘Aitken-mode’ aerosol particles. We hypothesize that these particles work their way down into the marine boundary layer, where they can replenish the supply of cloud-condensation nuclei scavenged by frequent precipitation. Further, this process maintains high concentrations of liquid cloud droplets in austral summer, promoting more sunlight to be reflected to space. We call this ‘Aitken buffering’. The primary objective of this project has been to document and test what role Aitken-mode aerosols play in clouds over the Southern Ocean and elsewhere. This effort has included three main components: 1) developing a computer model that realistically simulates the aerosol processes and the small-scale turbulent air motions that move aerosols around and create the clouds, 2) using that model to interpret and extend these observations for process understanding, by allowing different factors that contribute to the aerosol budget, such as surface wind speed, precipitation, surface gas exchange, etc. to be separated, and 3) studying Aitken-mode aerosol and its variability with a focus over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, using data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites and other available observations. Initial computer studies in more idealized conditions found that elevated concentrations of Aitken-mode aerosols above the clouds could help prevent the breakup of those clouds by acting as cloud-condensation nuclei after they were entrained into the cloudy boundary layer. Simulations of a day during the ACE-ENA field campaign showed that Aitken-mode aerosols could also prevent cloud breakup under more realistic conditions. A new method that extracts information about Aitken-mode aerosols from measurements of aerosols onto which cloud droplets can form finds that Aitken-mode aerosols do vary seasonally over the Southern Ocean, with a peak in summertime, as described above. Other work during this project has focused on understanding how patterns of water vapor, clouds and precipitation are coupled within low-lying clouds over the oceans, and also on how cloud droplets cluster within clouds and how the distribution of cloud droplet sizes change as dry air is mixed into clouds, with the latter studies also using observations from ACE-ENA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hypertriton puzzle in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

The yields of hadrons and light nuclei in relativistic collisions of heavy-nuclei at a center of mass energy of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 2.6 TeV can be described remarkably well by a thermal distribution of an ideal gas of hadrons and light nuclei interacting only via the decay of resonances. Given the particularly small binding energy of hypertritons relative to the temperature describing the yields (about 156 MeV), one might naturally expect hypertrions to dissociate in medium, making the agreement of hypertriton yields with thermal predictions highly puzzling. The puzzle is compounded by the fact that small binding energy is associated with the large size of the hypertriton. This size is on a similar scale to the overall size of the fireball and much larger than the length scale over which temperatures in the fireball vary over phenomenologically relevant amounts. Here, this paper quantifies the tension this effect causes and shows that it is sufficiently large to render the thermal model inconsistent: its natural assumptions are in conflict with its outputs. The possibility that hypertritons are formed at freeze out as compact objects, quark droplets, that subsequently evolve into hypertritons is considered as a way to resolve the puzzle. It is noted that beyond making the assumption that compact quark droplets form, additional detailed dynamical assumptions which have not been justified are needed to make the thermal model work. The issue of why, despite these issues, the hypertriton is well described by a simple statistical description at freeze out is unresolved. Resolving the hypertriton puzzle is important as it may clarify whether the phenomenological success of the simple thermal model for yields accurately reflects the simple picture of the underlying physics on which it is based.

hydrodynamic models↗

The MP{sub N} method: a new angular discretization method based on piecewise polynomial interfaces fluxes

In transport calculations, it is well known how S{sub N} method is extremely inefficient in problems where the particle physics is dominated by streaming. The ray-effect eventually produced by the insufficient angular discretization, appears to be extremely persistent with respect to the refinement of the angular quadrature. The MP{sub N} method, that relies on continuous angular representation, offers a robust remedy to such an issue. MP{sub N} is based on the decomposition of the unit sphere into solid angles and on a piecewise continuous definition of interface fluxes, which are expanded in polynomials in each solid angle. This allows propagating more than one angular degree of freedom simultaneously while maintaining unaltered the block-diagonal pattern of the displacement plus removal operator. The method is therefore well suited for the flux resolution by means of a conventional sweep algorithm. Furthermore, unlike the S{sub N} method, MP{sub N} does not rely on discrete directions and, thus, on an angular quadrature formula, but rather constructs a set of linear equations solving for the angular moments of the flux for all discrete solid angles within the sweep. MP{sub N} shows an error convergence rate higher than S{sub N} at the expense of an increased size of the coefficient matrices, so of the computational cost. Although MP{sub N} is not free from ray-effect, the latter is effectively mitigated and less persistent with respect to the increase of the angular refinement order. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Effect of particle shape on stratification in drying films of binary colloidal mixtures

The role of particle shape in evaporation-induced auto-stratification in polydisperse colloidal suspensions is explored with molecular dynamics simulations of mixtures of spheres and aspherical particles. A unified framework based on the competition between diffusion and diffusiophoresis is proposed to understand the effects of shape and size dispersity. In general, particles diffusing more slowly (e.g., larger particles) tend to accumulate more strongly at the evaporation front. However, larger particles have larger surface areas and therefore greater diffusiophoretic mobility. Hence, they are more likely to be driven away from the evaporation front via diffusiophoresis. For a rapidly dried bidisperse suspension containing small and large spheres, the competition leads to “small-on-top” stratification. Here, we employ a computational model in which the diffusion coefficient is inversely proportional to particle mass. For a mixture of spheres and aspherical particles with similar mass, the diffusion contrast is reduced, and the spheres are always enriched at the evaporation front as they have the smallest surface area for a given mass and, therefore, the lowest diffusiophoretic mobility. Furthermore, for a mixture of solid and hollow spheres that have the same outer radius and thus the same surface area, the diffusiophoretic contrast is suppressed, and the system is dominated by diffusion. Consequently, the solid spheres, which have a larger mass and diffuse more slowly, accumulate on top of the hollow spheres. Finally, for a mixture of thin disks and long rods that differ significantly in shape but have similar mass and surface area, both diffusion and diffusiophoresis contrasts are suppressed, and the mixture does not stratify.

Classical molecular dynamic simulations↗

Satellite-based evaluation of AeroCom model bias in biomass burning regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by –93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Measurements and modeling of type-I and type-II ELMs heat flux to the DIII-D divertor

Type-I and type-II edge-localized-modes (ELMs) heat flux profiles measured at the DIII-D divertor feature a peak in the vicinity of the strike-point and a plateau in the scrape-off-layer (SOL), which extends to the first wall. The plateau is present in attached and detached divertors and it is found to originate with plasma bursts upstream in the SOL. The integrated ELM heat flux is distributed at ~65% in the peak and ~35% in this plateau. The parallel loss model, currently used at ITER to predict power loads to the walls, is benchmarked using these results in the primary and secondary divertors with unprecedented constraints using experimental input data for ELM size, radial velocity, energy, electron temperature and density, heat flux footprints and number of filaments. The model can reproduce the experimental near-SOL peak within ~20%, but cannot match the SOL plateau. Employing a two-component approach for the ELM radial velocity, as guided by intermittent data, the full radial heat flux profile can be well matched. The ELM-averaged radial velocity at the separatrix, which explains profile widening, increases from ~0.2 km s –1 in attached to ~0.8 km s –1 in detached scenarios, as the ELM filaments' path becomes electrically disconnected from the sheath at the target. The results presented here indicate filaments fragmentation as a possible mechanism for ELM transport to the far-SOL and provide evidence on the beneficial role of detachment to mitigate ELM flux in the divertor far-SOL. However, these findings imply that wall regions far from the strike points in future machines should be designed to withstand significant heat flux, even for small-ELM regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Proton and neutron density distributions at supranormal density in low- and medium-energy heavy-ion collisions. II. Central Pb + Pb collisions

This paper represents a continuation of our investigation into the limitations on total, proton, and neutron particle number densities, as well as the asymmetry of proton and neutron density distributions achievable in central heavy-ion collisions. We explore these aspects at low and medium energies within the framework of the Boltzmann-Uhlenbeck-Uehling (pBUU) transport and time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) models. Previous studies, focusing on symmetric and asymmetric collisions of Ca and Sn nuclei [1], and initial results on Pb-nuclei collisions [2], emphasized the role of the Coulomb interaction in these events. Our findings indicated that: (i) the highest total densities predicted at 𝐸 beam = 800 MeV/nucleon were on the order of ≈ 2.5⁢𝜌 0 (𝜌 0 = 0.16 fm −3 ), (ii) the proton-neutron asymmetry for maximal densities, 𝛿=(𝜌$^{max}_{n}$− 𝜌$^{max}_{p}$)/(𝜌$^{max}_{n}$+𝜌$^{max}_{p}$), did not generally exceed the asymmetry in the initial state of the collision at all beam energies and tended to decrease during the reaction, and (iii) a significant portion of this asymmetry had its microscopic origin in Coulomb forces, masking the pure nuclear contribution. These new findings, particularly relevant in the astrophysical context, are further examined in this work, focusing on the heaviest target-projectile combination 212,208 Pb accessible in an experiment. We introduce the SkT3 Skyrme force model, not previously used for the Pb system, and compare it to the SV-bas and SV-sym34 models to explore the symmetry-energy dependence of the results. Contour plots of nucleonic densities are presented, contrasting the time evolution of the density distributions in low (TDHF) and high (pBUU) models. We also present the evolution of normalized maximal proton, neutron, and total nucleon number density with increasing beam energy in the full pBUU model and the Vlasov approximation, aiming to explore the impact of correlations in the reaction. The time evolution of the proton and neutron density distributions in the plane transverse to the beam direction is illustrated at both low and high beam energy. In conclusion, our detailed examination of the Pb system in this work provides further essential evidence that the aforementioned findings (i)–(iii) are only weakly dependent on system size and a symmetry-energy model, and thus, they are of more general importance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

High Fidelity CFD Simulations Supporting the KP-FHR

Kairos Power, LLC, is developing its version of the Fluoride-cooled High-temperature Reactor, the KP-FHR. The design uses a pebble bed core with fluoride salt as a coolant. The pebbles used in the KP-FHR have a diameter of 4 cm, with a shell fuel region where TRISO particles are embedded. A Pebble bed core design is adopted by several Gen IV reactors, They boast many benefits, such as fuel integrity, highly efficient heat transfer, and passive safety. However, it is challenging to accurately predict temperature and flow inside a pebble bed. Traditional approaches use the porous media model, which regards the pebble bed as a continuous medium, but with different temperature fields representing different levels, such as the fluid temperature, pebble surface temperature, and pebble center temperature. Empirical heat transfer correlations are adopted to calculate the heat transfer coefficient between different phases. However, empirical correlations are usually validated with experimental data, which usually lacks detail inside the pebble bed. The available experimental data is also generally at a high Reynolds number, which falls outside of the conditions of KP-FHR. Explicit computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of randomly packed pebble beds have only become feasible recently. This is thanks to the rapid development of computational power and scalable algorithms. In this work, we used the Spectral Element Method (SEM) CFD code NekRS to simulate the randomly packed pebble bed in a cylindrical container. NekRS, which is the GPU variant of Nek5000, but refactored to utilize the computational power of GPUs using the OCCA library to run on hybrid architecture high performance computing systems. It was initially developed with the libParamunal library, but truncated and tuned for large-scale turbulence simulation. As a result, the SEM reaches higher precision with the same degrees of freedom by using a high-order Lagrange polynomial basis distributed on Gauss-Lobatto-Legendre quadrature inside each element, compared to lower-order methods, such the Finite Volume Method and Finite Element Method. The report is divided into five parts. We start with a general discussion of the pebble bed reactor, along with a specific investigation into the KP-FHR. The second part presents the numerical methodology. In the third part, we study a modular pebble bed with 1741 pebbles in a container of 7 pebble-diameter radius. Beyond LES simulations done by NekRS, we also leveraged the thermal radiation model in OpenFOAM to study heat transfer under no-forced-flow scenarios. Then, in the fourth part we simulated a pebble bed similar to the size of the Hermes Test Reactor. The total number of pebbles is in these simulations is 34,374. The container radius is 14 pebble-diameters. Finally, the report concludes in part five, with a discussion of future work.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Computational techniques for the analysis of small signals in high-statistics neutrino oscillation experiments

The current and upcoming generation of Very Large Volume Neutrino Telescopes – collecting unprecedented quantities of neutrino events – can be used to explore subtle effects in oscillation physics, such as (but not restricted to) the neutrino mass ordering. The sensitivity of an experiment to these effects can be estimated from Monte Carlo simulations. With the high number of events that will be collected, there is a trade-off between the computational expense of running such simulations and the inherent statistical uncertainty in the determined values. In such a scenario, it becomes impractical to produce and use adequately-sized sets of simulated events with traditional methods, such as Monte Carlo weighting. In this work we present a staged approach to the generation of expected distributions of observables in order to overcome these challenges. By combining multiple integration and smoothing techniques which address limited statistics from simulation it arrives at reliable analysis results using modest computational resources.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗