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At least 991 records · Page 55

The role of carbonaceous aerosols on short-term variations of precipitation over North Africa

Northern Africa has been subject to extensive droughts in the late 20th century, which are frequently linked to changes in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. However, climate models forced by observed Sea Surface Temperatures have been unable to reproduce the magnitude of rainfall reduction over the last several decades. In this study, we propose that aerosol indirect effects (AIE) may be an important feedback mechanism to contribute this recent reduction. The climate model used here has a fully predictive aerosol life cycle. Results are presented for a set of sensitivity experiments designed to distinguish the role of aerosol direct/semi-­direct and indirect effects on regional precipitation. Changes in cloud lifetime due to the presence of carbonaceous aerosols are proposed as a key mechanism to explain the reduced rainfall over the tropical and North Africa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupling of electroelastic dynamics and direct contact ultrasonic drying formulation for annular piezoelectric bimorph transducers

A newly developed technique for drying clothes without thermal energy has been developed through the utilization of ultrasonic vibrations from piezoelectric transducers. The novel technique incorporates the actuation of a thin stainless steel disk in contact with wet fabric via annular piezoelectric rings, where water in the liquid form is atomized, transported through microchannels in the disk, and ejected as a mist. In such a system, resonance matching between the actuation portion of the transducer and the portion contacting fabric must be realized, with theoretical results from the developed electromechanical model showing a reduction in energy consumption by 50% when resonance matching is achieved. The electrically coupled distributed parameter model for an annular bimorph piezoelectric transducer is developed for optimization of ultrasonic drying technology. The thickness mode vibrations are shown to dominate the behavior of the system, where the analytically developed model can be optimized to increase the output acceleration of the transducer, thus increasing drying performance. Here, the electromechanical equation developed will be connected to the drying rates of fabrics in contact with said vibrations, where the novelty of the coupled equations and its description of the physics of ultrasonic drying will be discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ensemble approximate control variate estimators: Applications to multi-fidelity importance sampling.

The recent growth in multifidelity uncertainty quantification has given rise to a large set of variance reduction techniques that leverage information from model ensembles to provide variance reduction for estimates of the statistics of a high-fidelity model. In this paper we provide two contributions: (1) we utilize an ensemble estimator to account for uncertainties in the optimal weights of approximate control variate (ACV) approaches and derive lower bounds on the number of samples required to guarantee variance reduction; and (2) we extend an existing multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS) scheme to leverage control variates. Our approach directly addresses a limitation of many multifidelity sampling strategies that require the usage of pilot samples to estimate covariances. As such we make significant progress towards both increasing the practicality of approximate control variates—for instance, by accounting for the effect of pilot samples—and using multifidelity approaches more effectively for estimating low-probability events. The numerical results indicate our hybrid MFIS-ACV estimator achieves up to 50% improvement in variance reduction over the existing state-of-the-art MFIS estimator, which had already shown an outstanding convergence rate compared to the Monte Carlo method, on several problems of computational mechanics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DC Modeling of 4H-SiC JFET Gate Length Reduction at 500°C

The development of robust, high-performance integrated circuits (ICs) will enable numerous potential NASA missions of current interest, including long-duration robotic missions exploring the 460 °C surface of Venus. Currently, NASA is looking towards SiC-based devices to provide such a solution. However, the current NASA silicon carbide (SiC) JFET device with a channel length of 6μm (for recently fabricated Gen. 11 ICs) limits on mission relevant circuit capabilities [1]. In this study, we combined experiments with simulations to explore two straightforward fabrication strategies to reduce the SiC JFET channel length while maintaining turn-off behavior (Fig. 1a) needed to realize 500 °C circuit operation. The first fabrication strategy uses a shallow self-align nitrogen implant (Figure 1b) along the device's top surface but not below the gate combined with a high-dose phosphorous implant directly below the source and drain contacts. For the second fabrication strategy (Figure 1c), the high-dose phosphorous implants extended from below the contacts all the way up to the gate edges. Simulations guided gate length reductions without significant degradation in the turn-off performance. In total 12 SiC JFET variants implementing using the different fabrication strategies, gate lengths, and n-channel epilayer thickness were implemented in our simulation framework implemented in COMSOL. Since the COMSOL database does not have the material properties for 4H-SiC, these parameters were taken from the literature and implemented in COMSOL. The empirical models [2] for incomplete ionization, Auger recombination, low field mobility, and Shockley-Read-Hall recombination were implemented to account for material-specific device behavior.

4H-SiC JFET↗

Chemotherapy Response Assessment by FDG-PET-CT in Early-stage Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma: Moving Beyond the Five-Point Deauville Score

Purpose: In early-stage classical Hodgkin lymphoma, fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET)-computed tomography (CT) scans are performed routinely after chemotherapy, and the 5-point Deauville score is used to report the disease response. We hypothesized that other PET-CT parameters, considered in combination with Deauville score, would improve risk stratification. Methods and Materials: Patients treated for stage I to II Hodgkin lymphoma from 2003 to 2013, who were aged ≥18 years and had analyzable PET-CT scans performed before and after chemotherapy, were eligible. The soft tissue volume (STV), maximum standardized uptake value, metabolic tumor volume, and total lesion glycolysis were recorded from the PET-CT scans before and after chemotherapy. Reductions were defined as 1 − (final PET-CT value)/(corresponding initial PET-CT value). The primary endpoint was freedom from progression (FFP). Results: For 202 patients treated with chemotherapy with or without radiation therapy, the 5-year FFP was 89% (95% confidence interval 85%-93%). All PET-CT parameters were strongly associated with the Deauville score (P<.001) and FFP (P<.0001) on univariate analysis. The Deauville score was highly predictive of FFP (C-index 0.89) but was less discriminating in the Deauville 1 to 4 subset (C-index 0.67). Therefore, we aimed to identify PET-CT parameters that would improve risk stratification for this subgroup (n=187). STV reduction was predictive of outcome (C-index 0.71) and was dichotomized with an optimal cutoff of 0.65 (65% reduction in STV). A model incorporating the Deauville score and STV reduction predicted FFP more accurately than either measurement alone in the Deauville 1 to 4 subset (C-index 0.83). The improvement in predictive accuracy of this composite measure compared with the Deauville score alone met statistical significance (P=.045). Conclusions: The relative reduction in tumor size is an independent predictor of outcome. Combined with the Deauville score, it might improve risk stratification and contribute to response-adapted individualization of therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Significance of radiation models in investigating the flow phenomena around a Jovian entry body

Formulation is presented to demonstrate the significance of a simplified radiation model in investigating the flow-phenomena in the viscous radiating shock layer of a Jovian entry body. For this, a nongray absorption model for hydrogen-helium gas is developed which consists of 30 steps over the spectral range of 0-20 eV. By employing this model results were obtained for temperature, pressure, density, and radiative flux in the shock layer and along the body surface. These are compared with results of two sophisticated radiative transport models available in the literature. Use of the present radiation model results in significant reduction in computational time. Results of this model are found to be in general agreement with results of other models. It is concluded that use of the present model is justified in investigating the flow phenomena around a Jovian entry body because it is relatively simple, computationally fast, and yields fairly accurate results.

Tiwari, S. N.↗

Computational Analysis of a Chevron Nozzle Uniquely Tailored for Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics

A computational flow field and predicted jet noise source analysis is presented for asymmetrical fan chevrons on a modern separate flow nozzle at take off conditions. The propulsion airframe aeroacoustic asymmetric fan nozzle is designed with an azimuthally varying chevron pattern with longer chevrons close to the pylon. A baseline round nozzle without chevrons and a reference nozzle with azimuthally uniform chevrons are also studied. The intent of the asymmetric fan chevron nozzle was to improve the noise reduction potential by creating a favorable propulsion airframe aeroacoustic interaction effect between the pylon and chevron nozzle. This favorable interaction and improved noise reduction was observed in model scale tests and flight test data and has been reported in other studies. The goal of this study was to identify the fundamental flow and noise source mechanisms. The flow simulation uses the asymptotically steady, compressible Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations on a structured grid. Flow computations are performed using the parallel, multi-block, structured grid code PAB3D. Local noise sources were mapped and integrated computationally using the Jet3D code based upon the Lighthill Acoustic Analogy with anisotropic Reynolds stress modeling. In this study, trends of noise reduction were correctly predicted. Jet3D was also utilized to produce noise source maps that were then correlated to local flow features. The flow studies show that asymmetry of the longer fan chevrons near the pylon work to reduce the strength of the secondary flow induced by the pylon itself, such that the asymmetric merging of the fan and core shear layers is significantly delayed. The effect is to reduce the peak turbulence kinetic energy and shift it downstream, reducing overall noise production. This combined flow and noise prediction approach has yielded considerable understanding of the physics of a fan chevron nozzle designed to include propulsion airframe aeroacoustic interaction effects.

Massey, Steven J.↗

Coupling flux balance analysis with reactive transport modeling through machine learning for rapid and stable simulation of microbial metabolic switching

Integrating genome-scale metabolic networks with reactive transport models (RTMs) provides a detailed description of the dynamic changes in microbial growth and metabolism. Despite promising demonstrations in the past, computational inefficiency has been pointed out as a critical issue to overcome because it requires repeated application of linear programming (LP) to obtain flux balance analysis (FBA) solutions in every time step and spatial grid. To address this challenge, we propose a new simulation method where we train and validate artificial neural networks (ANNs) using randomly sampled FBA solutions and incorporate the resulting surrogate FBA model (represented as algebraic equations) into RTMs as source/sink terms. We demonstrate the efficiency of our method via a case study of Shewanella oneidensis MR-1. During aerobic growth on lactate, S. oneidensis produces metabolic byproducts (such as pyruvate and acetate), which are subsequently consumed as alternative carbon sources when the preferred nutrients are depleted. To effectively simulate these complex dynamics, we used a cybernetic approach that models metabolic switches as the outcome of dynamic competition among multiple growth options. In both zero-dimensional batch and one-dimensional column configurations, the ANN-based surrogate models achieved substantial reduction of computational time by several orders of magnitude compared to the original LP-based FBA models. Moreover, the ANN models produced robust solutions without any special measures to prevent numerical instability. These developments significantly promote our ability to utilize genome-scale networks in complex, multi-physics, and multi-dimensional ecosystem modeling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Barotropic and Baroclinic Eddy Feedbacks in the Midlatitude Jet Variability and Responses to Climate Change–Like Thermal Forcings

Abstract Studies have suggested that the persistence in the meridional vacillation of the midlatitude jet (i.e., annular mode time scale) in comprehensive climate models is related to the model biases in climatological jet latitude, with important implications for projections of future climates and midlatitude weather events. Through the use of the recently developed finite-amplitude wave activity formalism and feedback quantifying techniques, this paper has quantified the role of barotropic and baroclinic eddy feedbacks in annular mode time scales using an idealized dry atmospheric model. The eddy–mean flow interaction that characterizes the persistent anomalous state of the midlatitude jet depends on processes associated with the lower-tropospheric source of vertically propagating Rossby waves, baroclinic mechanisms, and processes associated with upper-tropospheric wave propagation and breaking, barotropic mechanisms. A variety of climate change–like thermal forcings are used to generate a range of meridional shifts in the midlatitude eddy-driven jet. The idealized model shows a reduction in annular mode time scale associated with an increase in jet latitude, similar to comprehensive climate models. This decrease in time scale can be attributed to a similar decrease in the strength of the barotropic eddy feedback, which, in the positive phase of the annular mode, is characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV) mixing on the equatorward flank of the climatological jet. The decrease in subtropical PV mixing is, in turn, associated with a stronger subtropical jet as the eddy-driven jet is more distant from the subtropics. These results highlight the importance of subtropical eddy–mean flow interactions for the persistence of an eddy-driven jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ReEDS Performance Improvement

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) is an open-source, spatially explicit, long-term capacity expansion model for the bulk electric power system of the contiguous United States, encompassing multiple scenarios with technological and political assumptions (see https://github.com/NREL/ReEDS-2.0). With the increased needs for capabilities, higher temporal and spatial resolutions to model the evolution of the power system with modern technologies and low-carbon pathways, ReEDS' model solution times have increased significantly from 4-6 hours in 2018 to 18-48+ hours in 2023 . Also, the model size for commonly-run ReEDS scenarios reached 22 and 28 million equations and variables, respectively. These runtimes can be especially challenging under certain scenario settings (e.g., very high temporal or spatial resolution) or with limited computational power. In this presentation, we will discuss several methods we used to improve model runtime, including data preparation, model modification, and solver tuning. The implementation of these methods shrank the model size to 7.2 and 7.3 million equations and variables, respectively. Furthermore, this led to a 77% reduction in the model's run time for commonly-run ReEDS scenarios. We will discuss the process of identifying areas for solve time improvements and how the specific enhancements for the ReEDS model might be applied to other similar large-scale models.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗

A Control Concept for Large Flexible Spacecraft Using Order Reduction Techniques

Results found during the investigation of control problems of large flexible spacecraft are given. A triple plate configuration of such a spacecraft is defined and studied. The model is defined by modal data derived from infinite element modeling. The order reduction method applied is briefly described. An attitude control concept with low and high authority control has been developed to design an attitude controller for the reduced model. The stability and response of the original system together with the reduced controller is analyzed.

Thieme, G.↗

Kinetic model development and Bayesian uncertainty quantification for the complete reduction of Fe-based oxygen carriers with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 for chemical looping combustion

In this work, three kinetic models are developed and calibrated for the complete multi-step reduction of an Fe-based oxygen carrier (OC) particle with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 , using data from thermogravimetric analysis. The complete reduction rate profiles exhibit complex dynamics whose trajectory is significantly different depending on the reducing gas. A Bayesian model building and parameter estimation framework is applied for simultaneous parameter and model structure uncertainty quantification. The final models show excellent agreement between model predictions and calibration data, as well as new data not used for calibration (for the reduction of the OC with CH 4 ). Parameter uncertainty is quantified by determining joint posterior distribution, and model structure uncertainty is addressed by incorporating Gaussian process stochastic functions (represented by Bayesian smoothing splines) into the kinetic models. The final kinetic models with discrepancy functions are readily employable in equation-oriented simulation and optimization platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Application of Lanczos vectors to control design of flexible structures

This report covers research conducted during the first year of the two-year grant. The research, entitled 'Application of Lanczos Vectors to Control Design of Flexible Structures' concerns various ways to obtain reduced-order mathematical models for use in dynamic response analyses and in control design studies. This report summarizes research described in several reports and papers that were written under this contract. Extended abstracts are presented for technical papers covering the following topics: controller reduction by preserving impulse response energy; substructuring decomposition and controller synthesis; model reduction methods for structural control design; and recent literature on structural modeling, identification, and analysis.

Craig, Roy R., Jr.↗

Experimental and kinetic analysis for particle scale modeling of a CuO-Fe 2 O 3 -Al 2 O 3 oxygen carrier during reduction with H 2 in chemical looping combustion applications [Experimental and kinetic analysis for particle scale modeling of a CuO-Fe 2 O 3 -Al 2 O 3 oxygen carrier during reduction with CO in chemical looping combustion applications]

A kinetic analysis of the H 2 reduction of a CuO-Fe 2 O 3 -Al 2 O 3 oxygen carrier in gas phase fueled Chemical Looping Combustion of synthesis gas was utilized to derive particle scale representation. An experimentally driven study was carried out to provide an array of operational data sets for kinetic modelling approaches. The impact of key operational variables on the kinetics of the novel oxygen carrier were examined, with emphasis on the application of reliable phenomena driven particle scale models to describe the reduction behavior. Due to the novel nature of the material, a series of experimental studies were carried out to provide a fundamental understanding of how the material changed as oxygen was depleted from the structure due to reduction with H 2 . This include quantification of the complex mixed metal oxide phase and changes due to lattice oxygen depletion. It was found that H 2 reduction occurs in a multistep process where CuFeAlO 4 → Cu 0+ + FeAl 2 O 4 → Cu 0+ + Fe 0+ + Al 2 O 3 as oxygen is depleted from the structure. This multistep process was successfully emulated through the use of a two interface Grainy pellet model in which reaction (kinetic) control was the main rate limiting step. This is validated through the examination of other potential rate limiting resistances. In conclusion, the model emulates changes in key operation variables with good accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Machine learning-based ethylene and carbon monoxide estimation, real-time optimization, and multivariable feedback control of an experimental electrochemical reactor

Electrochemical reduction of CO 2 gas is a novel CO 2 utilization technique that has the potential to mitigate the global climate crisis caused by anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, and enable the large-scale storage of energy generated from renewable sources in the form of carbon-based chemicals and fuels. However, due to the complexity of the electrochemical reactions, the explicit first-principles models for CO2 reduction are not available yet, and there has been a limited effort to develop process modeling, optimization and control of CO 2 electrochemical reactors. To this end, a rotating cylinder electrode (RCE) reactor has been constructed at UCLA to understand the mass transfer and reaction kinetics effects separately on the productivity. In the RCE reactor, the applied potential strongly influences the reaction energetics and the electrode rotation speed affects the hydrodynamic boundary layer and modifies the film mass transfer coefficient, which involves convective and diffusive transport. Further, the present work aims to develop a multi-input multi-output (MIMO) control scheme for the RCE reactor that integrates techniques from artificial and recurrent neural network modeling, nonlinear optimization, and process controller design. Specifically, production rates of two products from the experimental reactor, ethylene and carbon monoxide, are controlled by manipulating two inputs, applied potential and catalyst rotation speed. Process dynamics and controllability are analyzed, a feedback control strategy is designed and the controllers are tuned accordingly. The experimental electrochemical cell is employed to gather data for process modeling and implement the multivariable control system. Finally, the experimental results are presented which demonstrate excellent closed-loop performance by the control system and regulation of the outputs at three different set-points including an economically-optimal set-point.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reductive Analysis with Compiler-Guided Large Language Models for Input-Centric Code Optimizations

Input-centric program optimization aims to optimize code by considering the relations between program inputs and program behaviors. Despite its promise, a long-standing barrier for its adoption is the difficulty of automatically identifying critical features of complex inputs. This paper introduces a novel technique, reductive analysis through compiler-guided Large Language Models (LLMs), to solve the problem through a synergy between compilers and LLMs. It uses a reductive approach to overcome the scalability and other limitations of LLMs in program code analysis. The solution, for the first time, automates the identification of critical input features without heavy instrumentation or profiling, cutting the time needed for input identification by 44× (or 450× for local LLMs), reduced from 9.6 hours to 13 minutes (with remote LLMs) or 77 seconds (with local LLMs) on average, making input characterization possible to be integrated into the workflow of program compilations. Optimizations on those identified input features show similar or even better results than those identified by previous profiling-based methods, leading to optimizations that yield 92.6% accuracy in selecting the appropriate adaptive OpenMP parallelization decisions, and 20-30% performance improvement of serverless computing while reducing resource usage by 50-60%.

Input-Centric Optimization↗

The determination of third order linear models from a seventh order nonlinear jet engine model

Results are presented that demonstrate how good reduced-order models can be obtained directly by recursive parameter identification using input/output (I/O) data of high-order nonlinear systems. Three different methods of obtaining a third-order linear model from a seventh-order nonlinear turbojet engine model are compared. The first method is to obtain a linear model from the original model and then reduce the linear model by standard reduction techniques such as residualization and balancing. The second method is to identify directly a third-order linear model by recursive least-squares parameter estimation using I/O data of the original model. The third method is to obtain a reduced-order model from the original model and then linearize the reduced model. Frequency responses are used as the performance measure to evaluate the reduced models. The reduced-order models along with their Bode plots are presented for comparison purposes.

Lalonde, Rick J.↗