Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

Neeman, Binyamin U.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A review of future weather data for assessing climate change impacts on buildings and energy systems

The effectiveness of climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies depend on the availability of high-quality future weather data. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of the energy research community and the focus of the climate modeling community, primarily due to a historical lack of communication and collaboration between the two groups. Here, to address this issue, this work provides a comprehensive overview of the critical aspects involved in creating future weather data for building and energy system modeling, including emissions scenarios, general circulation models, downscaling methods, categories of future weather data, and uncertainties in climate simulations. Moreover, it critically evaluates the applicability and suitability of various types of future weather data in five key application scenarios: energy use analysis, resilience analysis, HVAC design, utility-scale analysis, and renewable energy analysis. Finally, this work presents recommendations for high-level actions and research directions to foster collaboration between the energy research and climate modeling communities and to promote the integration of future weather data into energy codes and the design practices of buildings and energy systems.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multistage economic MPC for systems with a cyclic steady state: A gas network case study

Multistage model predictive control (MPC) provides a robust control strategy for dynamic systems with uncertainties and a setpoint tracking objective. Moreover, extending MPC to minimize an economic cost instead of tracking a pre-calculated optimal setpoint improves controller performance. This paper presents a novel multistage economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework for dynamic systems operating under uncertainty, with specific application to natural gas transmission networks. A key innovation lies in the integration of cyclic steady-state (CSS) constraints within the multistage MPC formulation, enabling the controller to manage periodic operating conditions commonly observed in energy systems. A Lyapunov-based descent condition is enforced to ensure robust stability of the controller. The multistage economic MPC framework is validated on two gas pipeline case studies, where it successfully minimizes net energy consumption, respects operational constraints under uncertain demand profiles, and guides the network to optimal cyclic operation. The Lyapunov function remains bounded in both case studies, validating the robust stability of multistage E-NMPC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Learning Reconstruction of Daily Soil CO 2 Efflux Reveals Biogeochemical Insights and Reduces Annual Estimate Uncertainty Despite Limited Daily Predictability

Soil CO 2 efflux is commonly measured monthly or seasonally, leaving daily dynamics poorly resolved and contributing to global estimation uncertainty. We trained a single Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict daily soil CO 2 efflux across 82 globally distributed sites in COSORE, with 0.2%–46.9% daily data coverage from 2003 to 2020. Despite using far fewer sites than are typically used to train a single deep learning model, with observations biased toward temperate mesic sites, the LSTM model performed well at approximately one-third of sites, reconstructed nearly 2 decades of daily efflux, and outperformed commonly used approaches for estimating daily efflux when applied to the same data set. Performance was weakest at pronounced peaks and troughs and at non-temperate sites with <1.5 years of observations and irregular data patterns. Nevertheless, annual efflux from reconstructed daily data had <40% error even at underperforming sites, substantially improving estimates derived from monthly and seasonal sampling (maximum errors of 95% and 136%, respectively). Temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) estimated from reconstructed daily predictions closely matched estimates from daily observations, whereas Q 10 values derived from monthly or seasonal observations deviated substantially, suggesting that coarse temporal sampling may contribute to uncertainty in reported Q 10 values. Consistent daily reconstructions further enabled trend analyses for well-performing, predominantly temperate sites and showed increasing soil CO 2 efflux at most sites from 2003 to 2020, with more variable summer trends. Despite limitations, these results demonstrate the potential of LSTM models to reconstruct daily soil CO 2 efflux and reduce estimation uncertainties from sparse observations.

Smykalov, Valerie [Pennsylvania State University, ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Detector Systematic Uncertainties Through Data-Driven Machine Learning

Detector simulation in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) is a constant challenge. In particular the modeling of electrons response on wires is highly nontrivial. However, new machine learning techniques exist which can be leveraged to ameliorate these concerns. We present a novel methodology to attempt to learn from cosmic muon data in the ICARUS detector how reconstructed wire signals are influenced by features of the hits such as location, particle direction, angle relative to the wire plane, etc. A model can then be generated which can apply the learned mapping to Monte Carlo events to create a more data-like simulation sample. By creating such a sample we expect to reduce the systematic uncertainties at ICARUS due to our detector modeling.

Hausner, Harry [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000188932280)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Detector Systematic Uncertainties Through Data-Driven Machine Learning

Detector simulation in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) is a constant challenge. In particular the modeling of electrons response on wires is highly nontrivial. However, new machine learning techniques exist which can be leveraged to ameliorate these concerns. We present a novel methodology to attempt to learn from cosmic muon data in the ICARUS detector how reconstructed wire signals are influenced by features of the hits such as location, particle direction, angle relative to the wire plane, etc. A model can then be generated which can apply the learned mapping to Monte Carlo events to create a more data-like simulation sample. By creating such a sample we expect to reduce the systematic uncertainties at ICARUS due to our detector modeling.

Hausner, Harry [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000188932280)↗
DOE OSTI2025

GPR_calculator: An on-the-fly surrogate model to accelerate massive nudged elastic band calculations

We present GPR_calculator, a package based on Python and C++ programming languages to build an on-the-fly surrogate model using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to approximate computationally expensive electronic structure calculations. The key idea is to dynamically train a GPR model during the simulation that can accurately predict energies and forces with uncertainty quantification. When the uncertainty is high, the costly electronic structure calculation is performed to obtain the ground truth data, which is then used to update the GPR model. To illustrate the effectiveness of GPR_calculator, we demonstrate its application in Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) simulations of surface diffusion and reactions, achieving 3-10 times acceleration compared to pure ab initio calculations. The source code is available at https://github.com/MaterSim/GPR_calculator.

Gaussian process regression↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable Generation of High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the U.S. via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. The study involves two scenarios: creating ensembles for (1) 17 U.S. metropolitan areas in 2019 and (2) full U.S. Census Divisions in 2023, with each scenario consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system within a research cloud, comprised of virtual containerizations, GPU-enhanced functionality, and orchestrated deployments of UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. Results demonstrate we maintained high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by areas of interest and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods while reducing manual workflow burdens. Finally, we discuss plans to fine-tune and further develop our automated workflows for truly distributed job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide an outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Cluster computing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraining capture cross sections using proton inelastic scattering as a surrogate reaction

The surrogate reaction method is an alternative to direct measurements of compound nuclear reaction cross sections. We introduce theory tools for extracting capture cross sections from experiments that use proton inelastic scattering as a surrogate reaction mechanism. This makes it possible to constrain compound nucleus decay models which are typically the largest source of uncertainty in capture cross section calculations. This letter describes the theory developments that were used to simultaneously infer 89 Y(p, γ) and 89 Zr(n, γ) cross sections from 90 Zr(p, p′γ) surrogate measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗
DOE OSTI2025

A compact x-ray spectrometer for measurements of electron temperature distributions in inertial confinement fusion implosions at OMEGA

The Wedge Range Filter (WRF), commonly used for proton spectroscopy at the OMEGA Laser Facility and National Ignition Facility, is adapted to measure the x-ray continuum spectrum through transmission measurement using a continuous-gradient filter. Continuum x rays emitted from the hotspot of an implosion contain information about the plasma composition and electron temperature. The WRF data are leveraged to probe this distribution, specifically the electron temperature distribution. In this work, the data recorded with the WRF are forward modeled using a temperature distribution model folded with the WRF response function. An uncertainty analysis is conducted through a Bayesian regression algorithm using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. This analysis enables the uncertainties in the instrument response to be folded into the uncertainty estimation of the electron temperature and absolute x-ray emission. Data analysis for a series of OMEGA implosions is presented and compared with radiation hydrodynamic simulations.

Lasers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Single-Nucleon Transfer on Unstable 59 Cu Probes the NiCu Cycle in Astrophysical X-Ray Bursts

Recent models of the rapid proton (𝑟⁢𝑝) capture process indicate that a competition between the 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛾) ⁢60 Zn and 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛼) ⁢56 Ni reactions may result in the formation of a nickel-copper (NiCu) cycle that traps the flux of material between 56 Ni and 60 Zn . Here, in this work, we report the identification of 15 proton-unbound levels in 60 Zn , populated via 59 Cu⁢(𝑑,𝑛) transfer, which govern the rate of the 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 60 Zn reaction in XRBs. Precise excitation energies for levels in 60 Zn were obtained from observed 𝛾 decays, and spectroscopic factors were determined from angle-integrated cross sections. Incorporating these results into stellar-model calculations, we find that with experimentally constrained uncertainties a NiCu cycle in XRBs is indeed possible, though we limit its branching strength to less than 38%. While modest, such a branching has significant impact on the light curve, motivating further studies of the relevant rates. Our calculations also indicate that a significant NiCu cycle leads to an increase in the amount of odd-𝐴 nuclei in the burst ashes, which may affect Urca cooling processes in neutron star crusts.

direct reactions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Oxygen Opacity Measurements at High-Energy-Density Conditions

We present the first benchmark measurements of oxygen opacity at high-energy-density, crucial for understanding stellar interiors. A 3–5−μm thick SiO 2 sample was heated using a Z facility x-ray source, and opacity was measured in the 5–19.5 Å range with multiple spectrometers. The electron temperature and density inferred from Si 𝐾-shell spectra were 148 ± 4 eV and 8.6 ±1.4 × 10 21 cm −3 , respectively. Six experiments showed opacity reproducibility within ±15% and 5%–25% opacity uncertainty. Measured oxygen opacity and seven different opacity models exhibit extraordinary overall agreement. Discrepancies near the H-like photon ionization threshold and in certain spectral lines suggest the need for model refinements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Higher-order symmetry plane correlations in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The correlations between event-by-event fluctuations of symmetry planes are measured in Pb-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV recorded by the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. This analysis is conducted using the Gaussian estimator technique, which is insensitive to biases from correlations between different flow amplitudes. The study presents, for the first time, the centrality dependence of correlations involving up to five different symmetry planes. The correlation strength varies depending on the harmonic order of the symmetry plane and the collision centrality. Comparisons with measurements from lower energies indicate no significant differences within uncertainties. Additionally, the results are compared with hydrodynamic model calculations. Although the model predictions provide a qualitative explanation of the experimental results, they overestimate the data for some observables. This is particularly true for correlators that are sensitive to the nonlinear response of the medium to initial-state anisotropies in the collision system. As these new correlators provide unique information—independent of flow amplitudes—their usage in future model developments can further constrain the properties of the strongly interacting matter created in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intersection of Hydrologic Change and Hydropower in the United States: Needs for Future Research and Practice

Hydropower is crucial for electric‐grid stability in the context of variable renewables but faces threats from changing hydrology. Here, we summarize the state of the science at the intersection of hydropower operations and planning, hydrologic science, and climate. We focus on the United States, outlining research, development, and training needs. Key knowledge gaps include the risk that intensification of compound extreme events poses to future generation, as well as uncertainties surrounding greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower reservoirs with relevance to hydropower's role in energy decarbonization. Quantifying such impacts and reducing uncertainty are critical where possible, but remaining irreducible or deep uncertainty will require new approaches. Future monitoring and modeling methods must provide a better understanding of the complexity inherent in large watersheds that is critical to managing both hydropower and watersheds in the context of hydrologic change. Yet, research and development will have little impact if they do not inform practice. Standardization and consolidation of platforms are essential for data, modeling, and tool translation to local scales and small operators. An enhanced industry‐academia dialog is pivotal for fostering a robust pipeline of hydropower professionals. Collaboration among researchers, policymakers, authorities, and industry stakeholders emerges as a recurring theme, highlighting the imperative for collective efforts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development, Monitoring, and Control of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage (FTES) in Crystalline Rock Formations (DEMO-FTES) (CRADA Final Report)

The DEMO-FTES project sought to demonstrate the thermal efficiency of fracture thermal energy storage (FTES) through numerical simulations, laboratory and meso-scale field tests. A detailed dimensional and scaling analysis was performed to identify key parameters and how they can be most effectively scaled to the laboratory and decameter scale. Numerical models were developed and used for three purposes: 1. Before field experiments, numerical modelling can be used to estimate fracture properties based on previous data from the EGS Collab experiment and then predict thermal hydrological behaviors of the fracture system with hot water injection/withdrawal, therefore, help to design the experiments (e.g., to decide the duration of the cycles based on the flow rate the pump can provide, and the estimated fracture properties); 2. After the field experiment, to estimate the system properties during the experiment (as the size and shape of a fracture could change over time), and understand why system performance is different than what has been predicted, i.e., to help understand the meso-scale test; and, 3. To model the lab experiments and estimate fracture properties and storage efficiency. Ultimately, the experiment and numerical models could shed light on the processes and uncertainty happening during fracture activation and help understand the scaling between lab and field test, and finally, the design and optimization of potential fracture thermal energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for numu Disappearance in the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program Utilizing an Exclusive 1mu1p QE-Like Final State

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab is searching for neutrino oscillations over a short baseline as a signature of a sterile neutrino with a mass splitting of about 1eV2. Such oscillations would drive the disappearance of muon neutrinos in the Booster Neutrino Beam between the detectors of the SBN Program. We present progress on an analysis to search for muon neutrino disappearance between the SBND and ICARUS detectors (the SBN Program's near and far detectors, respectively). This analysis leverages the one muon, one proton, quasi-elastic-like final state, which provides the best resolution for reconstructing the neutrino energy. The analysis incorporates a comprehensive set of systematic uncertainties in the neutrino flux, interaction, and detector model. This analysis will soon be completed as part of the first oscillation results at SBN.

Rowe, Nathaniel [U. Chicago (main)]↗