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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating the Evolution of Ice Particle Distributions in Mixed-Phase Clouds

The goal of this project is to conduct modeling studies that focus on the processes that control the macrophysical and microphysical properties of mixed phase clouds, such as the partitioning of water phase and the processes that promote precipitation and govern cloud evolution. The process specific to this project is the collection of vapor-grown non-spherical ice crystals and snow hydrometeors through aggregation, as uncertainty remains in the evolution of particle properties as they aggregate. To aid in the understanding of ice particle evolution from pristine monomers to aggregates, the aggregation process is depicted using an offline simulator for ice crystal collection, namely the Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator (IPAS). Of particular interest in the context of this work is the influence of monomer habit on aggregation and subsequently on cloud microphysical structure. This overarching goal has been completed by conducting modeling studies using the Adaptive Habit Model (AHM) in mixed-phase cloud systems, which predicts and evolves ice shape. While the AHM is designed with physical detail in mind, those details may be lost on larger spatial or temporal scales. Hence, how the contributions of particle growth and collection control the evolution of ice particle size distributions (PSDs) and redistribute mass within the cloud and at the surface has been investigated. Analyses include microphysical sensitivity investigations that inform on future improvement capabilities of microphysical parameterizations in larger scale models. Further, improvements of processes within ice clouds have resulted from this work as the environmental processes controlling ice crystal growth, microphysical processes, and precipitation are inherently integrated within this investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance Evaluation of an Advanced Distributed Energy Resource Management Algorithm

This paper presents performance evaluation of a new distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) algorithm via an advanced hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. The HIL platform provides realistic testing in a laboratory environment, including the accurate modeling of sub-transmission and distribution networks, the DERMS software controller, and 84 power hardware solar photovoltaic (PV) inverters, standard communication protocols, and a capacitor bank controller. The DERMS algorithm is also called, Grid-Optimization of Solar (GO-Solar) platform which includes predictive state estimation (PSE) and online multiple objective optimization (OMOO) to dispatch the legacy devices and distributed energy resources (e.g., PV). The voltage regulation performance is evaluated under three scenarios, volt-var smart inverter (baseline), and DERMS control for 100% and 30% of PV. The results show that controlling 30% of PV systems with the GO-Solar platform may provide the best balance of control performance and implementation cost.

distributed energy resource management system (DER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring 2D X-ray diffraction phase fraction analysis with convolutional neural networks: Insights from kinematic-diffraction simulations

Abstract Deep-learning models are effective for analyzing the complex information in 2D X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns. Accurately collecting parameters of the material sample is crucial during model training, significantly impacting model performance. In this study, we employ a kinematic-diffraction simulator to generate simulated 2D XRD patterns for Ti–6Al–4V alloy, allowing precise control of sample parameters. These simulated patterns are used to train convolutional neural networks, predicting $$\upbeta$$ β -phase volume fractions. The training data set consists exclusively of 2D XRD patterns with pure $$\upalpha$$ α - or pure $$\upbeta$$ β -phase, while the testing set incorporates patterns with intermediate phase volume fraction. In particular, we investigate how the architectures of the model influence prediction reliability and computational performance. Experimental results reveal that, with appropriate training, the convolutional neural network accurately detects intermediate phase volume fractions even trained with only pure-phase patterns, achieving a mean square error accuracy of $$9.4 \times 10^{-4}$$ 9.4 × 10 - 4 . Graphical abstract

Yue, Weiqi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tandem neural network-based controller for x-ray bimorph mirrors

Nanometer-scale shape control of x-ray mirrors is crucial for coherent x-ray beam experiments at low-emittance synchrotron beamline instruments. Piezoelectric bimorph mirrors offer adaptive control but are hindered by nonlinearities such as cross talk, creep, and hysteresis. To overcome these limitations, we present a novel feedback-free control solution, inspired by the proportional–integral–derivative (PID) scheme, driven by tandem neural networks (TNNs). Using task-specific datasets, the TNN-based system predicts actuator voltages with greater speed, accuracy, and stability than a single NN-based model. This approach is ideal for real-time applications, such as adapting beam focus to dynamic sample sizes while maintaining precise wavefront quality. Our findings highlight the potential of artificial intelligence in rapidly optimizing adaptive optics and managing nonlinear control systems.

Zhang, Runyu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Methods for Causal Discovery in Hydrometeorological Systems

Understanding causal relations is of utmost importance in hydrology and climate research for systems identification, prediction, and understanding systems behavior in a changing climate. Traditionally, researchers in hydrometeorology attempted to study causal questions by conducting controlled experiments using numerical models. This approach, however, in most cases of interest provides uncertain results because the models are approximate representation of the natural system. An alternative approach that has recently drawn significant attention in several fields is to infer causal relations from purely observational data. It possesses several traits to its utility particularly in hydrometeorology due to the rapid accumulation of in situ and remotely sensed data records. The first objective of this study is to present a brief description of four causal discovery methods (Granger causality, Transfer Entropy, graph-based algorithms, and Convergent Cross Mapping) with special emphasis on the assumptions on which they are built. Second, using synthetic data generated from a hydrological model, we assess their performance in retrieving causal information taking into account sensitivity to sample size and presence of noise. Last, we use causal analysis to examine and formulate hypotheses on causal drivers of evapotranspiration in a shrubland region during summer and winter seasons. An interpretation of the hypotheses based on canopy seasonal dynamics and evapotranspiration processes is presented. It is hoped that the results presented here can be useful in guiding researchers studying hydrometeorological systems as to which causal method is most appropriate to the characteristics of the system under study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed machine learning with differentiable programming for heterogeneous underground reservoir pressure management

Abstract Avoiding over-pressurization in subsurface reservoirs is critical for applications like CO $$_2$$ 2 sequestration and wastewater injection. Managing the pressures by controlling injection/extraction are challenging because of complex heterogeneity in the subsurface. The heterogeneity typically requires high-fidelity physics-based models to make predictions on CO $$_2$$ 2 fate. Furthermore, characterizing the heterogeneity accurately is fraught with parametric uncertainty. Accounting for both, heterogeneity and uncertainty, makes this a computationally-intensive problem challenging for current reservoir simulators. To tackle this, we use differentiable programming with a full-physics model and machine learning to determine the fluid extraction rates that prevent over-pressurization at critical reservoir locations. We use DPFEHM framework, which has trustworthy physics based on the standard two-point flux finite volume discretization and is also automatically differentiable like machine learning models. Our physics-informed machine learning framework uses convolutional neural networks to learn an appropriate extraction rate based on the permeability field. We also perform a hyperparameter search to improve the model’s accuracy. Training and testing scenarios are executed to evaluate the feasibility of using physics-informed machine learning to manage reservoir pressures. We constructed and tested a sufficiently accurate simulator that is 400 000 times faster than the underlying physics-based simulator, allowing for near real-time analysis and robust uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High dimensional predictions of suicide risk in 4.2 million US Veterans using ensemble transfer learning

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of ~4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics. Similar content being viewed by others

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

PIP-II Beam Current Monitor Fault Case & Beam Position Monitor Linearity Studies in CST Studio

The use of non-invasive sensors & systems to measure particle beam characteristics is a crucial part of modern accelerator control systems. As such, simulations predicting the behavior of these sensors are essential for guiding beamline control system design. This poster details the results returned by two beam sensor models created using CST Studio software: the signal linearity of an elliptical beam position monitor (BPM), and the fault cases of an AC current transformer (ACCT) beam current monitor (BCM).

Rouzky, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2025

DME-Propane Blends Ignition Experiments and Modeling for Heavy-Duty Mixing Controlled Compression Engines

A blend of dimethyl ether (DME) and propane (C3H8) is being studied in a shock tube at heavy-duty engine conditions at 110 bar. Due to its intrinsic combustion properties, DME/propane blend can potentially replace diesel in mixing controlled compression ignition engines. A blend of DME/propane can reduce emissions in mixing controlled compression ignition in heavy-duty engines through modifications, which require simulations using a high-fidelity chemical kinetics model that can accurately predict the chemistry of the blend. An essential aspect of testing the chemical kinetics model is doing baseline fundamental chemistry studies on neat DME and propane, which include ignition delay time measurements. In this work, using a high-pressure shock tube, ignition delay times were gathered for DME/Propane blends at 110 bar diluted with AR to test chemical kinetic models published in the literature. These models include Aramco 3.0, NUIG V1.1, C3mech V3.3, and Dames et al. Comparisons with the experimental IDTs and models were conducted, and general agreement was observed. A sensitivity analysis was conducted, and important reactions were outlined.

Mohammed, Zuhayr Pasha [University of Central Flor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

Residential buildings consume 4.4 quads of electricity annually, approximately 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. This represents a vast resource that can be used for demand management and other ancillary services. This project aims to develop a robust, scalable hierarchical transactional control mechanism incorporating elements of model-free control (MFC) and game theory to harness buildings to provide ancillary services to the grid. This approach is being taken to address the challenges of incorporating traditional transactional control schemes into existing buildings. The challenges include small individual building sizes requiring aggregation of many buildings, unpredictable energy usage that makes model identification difficult, and satisfying the sensitive occupant comfort constraints. In the proposed approach, by separating the control mechanism into two layers above and below the load aggregator, MFC can be used below the aggregator to modulate flexible building loads in response to pricing signals with guaranteed performance. This allows the burden of identifying an accurate model of the system to be shifted to the above-aggregator layer, where fluctuations in individual building usage have less impact on predicted building system behavior. Game theory concepts can then be used to determine pricing curves and control signals among regional aggregators. Managing this control in a game-theoretic approach will allow us to build in financial incentives that increase customer engagement. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable on small, embedded devices. In a broader sense, developing a strategy capable of effectively incorporating residential and small commercial buildings will allow greater throughput of existing and emerging grid services in addition to future transactive energy grid management methods. Using MFC within a hierarchical control architecture will allow the shifting of existing forecasting challenges to an aggregate level, where dynamics are slower and more predictable. This will enable a smooth interface between the grid services requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. MFC, which supports distributed control architecture, permits a scalable solution that can be deployed to neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. This project focuses on three objectives: (1) developing the mathematical framework, algorithm toolkit, and software toolset of the two-layer transactive control testbed; (2) developing a scalable solution for application over many residential and small-size commercial buildings with sparse distributed communication; and (3) field testing and implementation on hardware of the control strategies developed in the previous two objectives. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2025 targets timeframe. An open-source control framework for exploiting variability and dispatchability of building loads will be delivered as the outcome of the project. This capability enables greater participation of loads in electricity markets and ancillary services that are both useful for the utility and financially beneficial for building owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning surrogate for charged particle beam dynamics with space charge based on a recurrent neural network with aleatoric uncertainty

In this work, we develop a machine learning (ML) model with aleatoric uncertainty for the low energy beam transport (LEBT) region of the LANSCE linear accelerator in which we model the transport of a space-charge-dominated 750 keV proton beam through a lattice of 22 quadrupole magnets. Our ML model is developed based on data generated by a Kapchinsky–Vladimirsky (KV) envelope model of beam transport. We show that a recurrent neural network can be used as a dynamical surrogate model for fast prediction of the LEBT beam envelope. Furthermore, we endow the model with the prediction of aleatoric uncertainty and compare three different approaches. We demonstrate that the ML-based uncertainty quantification models are well calibrated and produce good estimates of the regions where the model is less certain about its predictions. This ML framework is a necessary step in the development of a real-time virtual diagnostic tool with uncertainty quantification that can be integrated into more complex downstream tasks (e.g., adaptive control or learning flexible control policies via reinforcement learning) for improved efficiency in beam operations. In future work, we plan to expand on this preliminary study by considering more realistic envelope models that include longitudinal momentum spread and dispersive effects in bending magnets, as well as particle tracking codes with 3D space charge (such as and ). Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of underlying surface, rainstorm and antecedent wetness condition on flood responses in small and medium sized watersheds in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Floods are becoming more frequent and are hard to control due to the shortage of water conservancy projects in small and medium sized basins, especially in developing regions. Understanding the hydrologic responses and estimated flood characteristics to storm events can help to predict flood disasters and form better effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, using observations of several representative watersheds and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, we conducted data-driven analyses to examine the flood responding characteristics. We quantified the relative contributions of the influencing factors to the variation of each flood characteristic. Statistical analysis of the observations shows that the drainage area plays a key role in determining the distribution of lag time and peak discharge. Rainstorm variability has direct influence on floods, and typhoon-induced rainstorms with high total rainfall and rainfall intensity generate higher lag time, flood peak, unit discharge and runoff depth, but lower runoff coefficient. The ANN and PCR models accurately predicted the variations of flood features using the driving factors including physical geographical characteristics, rainstorm features, and antecedent condition. Physical geographic characteristics are key influential factors of lag time, flood peak and runoff coefficient, while the rainstorm features control the magnitude of unit discharge and runoff depth. These results indicate that floods are mainly affected by rainstorm features and physical geographic characteristics in the Yangtze River delta, and it might become more damaging with the increasing rainfall extremes and sprawling impervious surfaces in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical and experimental investigation of the flame kernel growth in a methane/air mixture near the lean flammability limit

Lean combustion has the potential to improve the thermal efficiency of spark-ignition engines, but it faces the significant challenge of increased cycle-to-cycle variation due to low mixture reactivity and unstable flame dynamics. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) employing predictive models can guide engine design and optimize operating strategies for lean combustion. However, ignition and combustion models have rarely been validated at fuel-lean conditions, and a fundamental understanding of the early flame kernel growth process is also lacking for a successful sub-model development. Here, the present study develops a numerical simulation framework used to investigate early flame kernel growth in methane/air mixtures. A nanosecond-pulsed discharge (NPD) approach is employed to effectively decouple the flame kernel growth from the electrical discharge due to their difference in timescales, and equivalence ratios near the experimentally measured lean flammability limit (LFL) are selected to focus on challenging mixture conditions. Three numerical investigations, such as the choice of turbulence modeling, grid size, and grid control strategies, are examined to match both LFL and flame kernel structure measured from experiments. It is demonstrated that a quasi-direct numerical simulation (QDNS) with a fixed grid embedding of 10 μm can predict the LFL as φ CFD =0.61 and match the displacement speed of the kernel’s boundary marked in schlieren images. To predict the LFL and flame kernel shape, a fine grid (Δ≤12.5 μm) is needed to capture the consumption of formaldehyde (CH 2 O) in kernel’s reaction branches attached to the anode, and adaptive mesh refinement is replaced with the fixed embedding due to loss of simulation accuracy. Also, it is found that a large-eddy simulation (LES) using the Dynamic Structure model is not suitable for the NPD-induced flame kernel simulation because artificial sub-grid turbulent kinetic energy induced by shock dynamics alters the flow velocity calculation, resulting in divergence of LES from QDNS. Lastly, the simulation well matches the experimental data for the flame kernel evolution in three mixture conditions (φ = 0.7, 0.61, 0.55), showing toroidal flame kernel expansion and flame kernel growth/extinction.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Induced microearthquakes predict permeability creation in the brittle crust

Predicting the evolution of permeability accurately during stimulation at the reservoir scale and at the resolution of individual fractures is essential to characterize the fluid transport and the reactive/heat-transfer characteristics of reservoirs where stress exerts significant control. Here, we develop a hybrid machine learning (ML) model to visualize in situ permeability evolution for an intermediate-scale (~10 m) hydraulic stimulation experiment. This model includes an ML model that was trained using the well history of flow rate and wellhead pressure and MEQ data from the first three stimulation episodes to predict average permeability from the statistical features of the MEQs alone for later episodes. Moreover, a physics-inspired model is integrated to estimate in situ fracture permeability spatially. This method relates fracture permeability to fracture dilation and scales dilation to the equivalent MEQ magnitude, according to laboratory observations. The seismic data are then applied to define incremental changes in permeability in both space and time. Our results confirm the excellent agreement between the ground truth and model-predicted permeability evolution. The resulting permeability map defines and quantifies flow paths in the reservoir with the averaged permeability comparing favorably with the ground truth of permeability.

induced seismicity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Strain Sensing Characteristics of a 128° YX-Cut LiNbO 3 Rayleigh-Mode SAW Sensor From Room to Cryogenic Temperatures

Accurate, passive, and wireless monitoring of cryogenic hardware is essential for high-energy physics, space propulsion, and biomedical instrumentation. Here, this study quantifies the coupled temperature-strain behavior of Rayleigh-mode surface acoustic-wave (SAW) delay-line sensors fabricated on 128° YX-cut LiNbO 3 . A nonlinear finite element (FE) model incorporating Varshni-based elastic constants, higher-order thermal expansion, and temperature-dependent piezo- and dielectric coefficients was developed and validated experimentally between 280K and 80K. Free-standing (first test condition) and bonded/wired (second test condition) devices exhibited indistinguishable thermal responses; the average temperature coefficient of delay (TCD) in the critical cryogenic range from 130K down to 80K differed by only 0.15 ppm/K (0.32%), confirming that bonding-induced stress is negligible. Over 280-80K the measured TCD was 61.77 ppm/K, while the FE model predicted an equivalent temperature coefficient of frequency (TCF) of −62.74 ppm/K with an overall coefficient of determination R2 = 0.998. In the critical cryogenic interval 130-80K the TCD fell to 47.66 ppm/K, indicating improved thermal stability at low temperature. Controlled loading (0-300 με) revealed a strain coefficient of delay (SCD) that rises from 0.53 ± 0.02 ppm/με at 300K to 1.05 ± 0.02 ppm/με at 80K. This modest sensitivity confirms that, for temperature sensing, strain is a second-order perturbation above 135K but must be compensated at deeper cryogenic levels. Overall, this work establishes a predictive multiphysics model together with repeatable wired measurements that confirm the suitability of SAW sensors for temperature and strain monitoring in extreme cryogenic environments, while also providing a baseline for future wireless implementations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Managing time-substitutable electricity usage using dynamic controls

A predictive-control approach allows an electricity provider to monitor and proactively manage peak and off-peak residential intra-day electricity usage in an emerging smart energy grid using time-dependent dynamic pricing incentives. The daily load is modeled as time-shifted, but cost-differentiated and substitutable, copies of the continuously-consumed electricity resource, and a consumer-choice prediction model is constructed to forecast the corresponding intra-day shares of total daily load according to this model. This is embedded within an optimization framework for managing the daily electricity usage. A series of transformations are employed, including the reformulation-linearization technique (RLT) to obtain a Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) model representation of the resulting nonlinear optimization problem. In addition, various regulatory and pricing constraints are incorporated in conjunction with the specified profit and capacity utilization objectives.

Ghosh, Soumyadip↗