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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Machine Learning for Characterizing Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior: Insights from Real-World Data

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Descriptor: Infrastructure Perception and Control: Multi-Sensor Object Tracking Dataset (IPC-MSOT)

Traffic intersections are crucial and challenging nodes in transportation networks where multiple lanes of vehicles and pedestrians converge. Traffic accidents often occur at traffic intersections, including a large proportion of traffic fatalities and about one-half of all traffic injuries in the United States. Object detection data were collected in 2024 across three intersections in Colorado Springs, CO, USA, over the course of multiple days and various times to induce a heterogeneous mix of traffic conditions and behaviors. The purpose of the data collection exercises was to learn various attributes about infrastructure sensors and to build a repository of high-resolution, object-level data that can be used for research and development (e.g., to develop multisensor data fusion algorithms). The Infrastructure Perception and Control:Multi-Sensor Object tracking (IPC-MSOT) dataset was collected as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation's Strengthening Mobility and Revolutionizing Transportation (SMART) project, where the city of Colorado Springs, Colorado, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory collaborated to collect object-level trajectory data from road users using multiple types of infrastructure sensors deployed at different intersections. This dataset allows for testing of late-stage sensor fusion algorithms and their ability to ingest multimodal sensor data, and it can be utilized by traffic engineers to design and evaluate trajectory-based signal control strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the Stability of Power Transmission Systems Under Persistent Inverter Attacks: A Bi-Linear Matrix Approach

We investigate the stability and robustness properties of a power transmission system under persistent deceiving attacks on inverter-interfaced energy resources. The attacks can corrupt the damping coefficients in the inverters' controllers and measurements of the frequency at the points of coupling. Leveraging tools from hybrid dynamical systems theory, we characterize a broad family of persistent (and not necessarily periodic) attacks acting on the inverters, under which the stability properties of the transmission system can be shown to not be compromised. To address potentially conservative conditions identified through conventional bounding techniques, sufficient conditions on the average activation time of the attacks are identified via Lyapunov theory, as well as the formulation and solution of a class of bilinear matrix inequalities (BMI). The results are obtained for constant and slowly time-varying loads via input-to-state stability (ISS) tools. Numerical simulations on the IEEE 39-bus test system are also presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand Response Under Stochastic, Price-Dependent User Behavior

This letter focuses on price-based demand response (DR) implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented by price-dependent random variables, leveraging models and tools from the theory of stochastic optimization with decision-dependent distributions. The inherent epistemic uncertainty in the customers' responses renders open-loop, model-based DR strategies impractical. We propose a stochastic, feedback-based pricing strategy to compensate for estimation errors and uncertainty in customer response, establish theoretical results demonstrating the stability and near-optimality of the proposed approach, and validate its effectiveness through numerical simulations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing Future Energy Systems with Generative AI

Energy systems are experiencing various changes that impact the distribution, use, and reliability of energy. Local utilities and municipalities must respond and adapt to these changes, moving towards a future energy system with modernized infrastructure and other targeted investments and policy decisions. However, planning for and enacting these advancements requires significant effort from experts and engineers to develop strategies that ensure a reliable and secure energy future. This includes characterizing the current energy infrastructure, identifying areas for development, and engaging with local community members. Emerging generative artificial intelligence techniques can alleviate pain points and help support the development of the next generation of energy systems. Here, in this article, we highlight on-going generative AI work in the areas of atmospheric modeling, building energy management, and distribution network design, and we propose a vision for the role of generative AI that considers opportunities and identifies challenges inherent to this technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Probabilistic Shock Initiation Thresholds of Energetic Materials Through Evolution of Thermal-Mechanical Dissipation and Reactive Heating

The ignition threshold of an energetic material (EM) quantifies the macroscopic conditions for the onset of self-sustaining chemical reactions. The threshold is an important theoretical and practical measure of material attributes that relate to safety and reliability. Historically, the thresholds are measured experimentally. In this work, we present a new Lagrangian computational framework for establishing the probabilistic ignition thresholds of heterogeneous EM out of the evolutions of coupled mechanical-thermal-chemical processes using mesoscale simulations. Furthermore, the simulations explicitly account for microstructural heterogeneities, constituent properties, and interfacial processes and capture processes responsible for the development of material damage and the formation of hotspots in which chemical reactions initiate. The specific mechanisms tracked include viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity, fracture, post-fracture contact, frictional heating, heat conduction, reactive chemical heating, gaseous product generation, and convective heat transfer. To determine the ignition threshold, the minimum macroscopic loading required to achieve self-sustaining chemical reactions with a rate of reactive heat generation exceeding the rate of heat loss due to conduction and other dissipative mechanisms is determined. Probabilistic quantification of the processes and the thresholds are obtained via the use of statistically equivalent microstructure sample sets (SEMSS). The predictions are in agreement with available experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Proving the Business Case for Building Analytics

As building monitoring becomes more common, facilities teams are faced with an overwhelming amount of data. These data do not typically lead to insights or corrective actions unless they are stored, organized, analyzed, and prioritized in automated ways. Buildings are full of energy savings potential that can be uncovered with the right analysis. With analytic software applied to everyday building operations, owners are using data to their advantage and realizing cost savings through improved energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

cerf: A Python package to evaluate the feasibility and costs of power plant siting for alternative futures

Long-term electric power sector planning and capacity expansion is a key area of interest to stakeholders across a wide range of organizations because it helps in making informed decisions about investments in infrastructure within the context of potential future vulnerabilities under various natural and human stressors. Future power plant siting costs will depend on a number of factors including the characteristics of the electricity capacity expansion and electricity demand (e.g., fuel mix of future electric power capacity, and the magnitude and geographic distribution of electricity demand growth) as well as the geographic location of power plants. Electricity technology capacity expansion plans modeled to represent alternate future conditions meeting a set of scenario assumptions are traditionally compared against historical trends which may not be consistent with current and future conditions. We present the `cerf` Python package (a.k.a., the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility model) which helps evaluate the feasibility and structure of future, scenario-driven electricity capacity expansion plans by siting power plants in areas that have been deemed the least cost option while considering dynamic future conditions. We can use `cerf` to gain insight to research topics such as: 1) under what conditions future projected electricity expansion plans from models such as GCAM-USA are possible to achieve, 2) where and which on-the-ground barriers to siting (e.g., protected areas, cooling water availability) may influence our ability to achieve certain expansions, and 3) how electricity infrastructure build-outs and value may evolve into the future when considering locational marginal pricing (LMP) based on the supply and demand of electricity from a grid operations model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tethys: A Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Global Water Demand

Humans use water for many important tasks, such as drinking, growing food, and cooling power plants. Since future water demands depend on complex global interactions between economic sectors (e.g., demand for wheat in one country causing demand for water to grow that wheat in another country), it is often modeled at coarse spatial and temporal scales as part of models that account for complex, multi-sector system dynamics. However, models that project future water availability typically simulate physical processes at much finer scales. Tethys enables integration between these kinds of models by downscaling region-scale water demand projections using sector-specific proxies and formulas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Demand Response Optimization and Management System for Real-TIme (DROMS-RT)

To design and demonstrate DROMS-RT, a highly distributed Demand Response Optimization and Management System for Real-Time (DROMS-RT) power flow control to support large scale integration of distributed renewable generation into the grid. AutoGrid developed a novel control and communications platform to allow highly dispatchable demand response (DR) services in time frames suitable for providing ancillary services to the transmission grid. These services will be substantially less expensive and more efficient than other forms of ancillary services options currently available to manage the intermittency associated with large-scale renewable integration. DROMSRT successfully leveraged Automated Demand Response (ADR) by fundamentally re-thinking the architecture of the DR platform from the ground up and by developing innovative new technologies in a number of areas related to DR. DROMS-RT leveraged the low-cost, open, interoperable DR signaling technology, OpenADR, and low-cost, internet-protocol based telemetry solutions to reduce the cost of hardware. This allowed DROMS-RT to provide dynamic price signals to millions of OpenADR clients. Statistically rigorous signal processing techniques were developed to reliably detect even small load reductions in the presence of noisy baseline profiles. Novel forecasting engines based on modern online machine learning algorithms enabled accurate individualized forecasts for customer loads in the presence of dynamic pricing signals, and a real-time decision engines enabled continuous optimization and optimal dispatch of DR resources across a large portfolio of heterogeneous loads that respond at varying time-scales. Moreover, the real-time optimization conducted by the decision engine can utilize grid physics to maximize load reduction at the transmission system in addition to the distribution sites, for more efficient grid operation. Finally, the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) availability of the DROMS-RT platform has reduced the cost of deployment and enable participation of small commercial and residential customers in DR who otherwise would not be able to do so.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

RAMSeS: Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems

Over the past few decades, software has become ubiquitous as it has been integrated into nearly every aspect of society, including household appliances, consumer electronics, industrial control systems, public utilities, government operations, and military systems. Consequently, many critical national security questions can no longer be answered convincingly without understanding software, including its purpose, its capabilities, its flaws, its communication, or how it processes and stores data. As software continues to become larger, more complex, and more widespread, our ability to answer important mission questions and reason about software in a timely way is falling behind. Today, to achieve such understanding of third-party software, we rely predominantly on the ability of reverse engineering experts to manually answer each particular mission question for every software system of interest. This approach often requires heroic human effort that nevertheless fails to meet current mission needs and will never scale to meet future needs. The result is an emerging crisis: a massive and expanding gap between the national security need to answer mission questions about software and our ability to do so. Sandia National Laboratories has established the Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems (RAMSeS) effort, a collaborative long-term effort aimed at dramatically improving our nation’s ability to answer mission questions about third-party software by growing an ecosystem of tools that augment the human reverse engineer through automation, interoperability, and reuse. Focusing on static analysis of binary programs, we are attempting to identify reusable software analysis components that advance our ability to reason about software, to automate useful aspects of the software analysis process, and to integrate new methodologies and capabilities into a working ecosystem of tools and experts. We aim to integrate existing tools where possible, adapt tools when modest modifications will enable them to interoperate, and implement missing capability when necessary. Although we do hope to automate a growing set of analysis tasks, we will approach this goal incrementally by assisting the human in an ever-widening range of tasks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Tutorial for Using an Open-Source Solver for the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model

ReEDS is a publicly available model developed at NREL that can be used to analyze the potential evolution of the U.S. electric power system into the future. ReEDS is formulated as a linear program, written in GAMS, and solved using a linear programming solver (e.g., CPLEX). This tutorial provides context and understanding for the implications of using an open-source solver for ReEDS.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Generator Failures under Extreme Temperature Scenarios in Power Systems

This report summarizes work done under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) Program. The specific task of interest described in this report is focused on sensitivity analysis of scenarios involving failures of both wind turbines and thermal generators under extreme cold-weather temperature conditions as would be observed in a Polar Vortex event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗