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At least 991 records · Page 55

Sequential Bayesian Methods for Analyzing Computer Models

Efficient analysis of computer models is essential for the validation and uncertainty quantification of those models. Surrogate models, and Gaussian processes in particular, are a common and powerful approach to analyzing computer models that treat computer models as a black-box function. Gaussian processes form a Bayesian model over a space of functions that gives a measure of uncertainty about the computer model output at unobserved locations and a framework for sequential sampling. This tutorial will show how to fit Gaussian processes on a series of test functions and apply sequential design techniques to estimate extrema, level sets, and reliabilities of those test functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Probing the Potential Energy Profile of the I + (H 2 O) 3 → HI + (H 2 O) 2 OH Forward and Reverse Reactions: High Level CCSD(T) Studies with Spin-Orbit Coupling Included

Three different pathways for the atomic iodine plus water trimer reaction I + (H 2 O) 3 → HI + (H 2 O) 2 OH were preliminarily examined by the DFT-MPW1K method. Related to previous predictions for the F/Cl/Br + (H 2 O) 3 reactions, three pathways for the I + (H 2 O) 3 reaction are linked in terms of geometry and energetics. To legitimize the results, the “gold standard” CCSD(T) method was employed to investigate the lowest-lying pathway with the correlation-consistent polarized valence basis set up to cc-pVQZ(-PP). According to the CCSD(T)/cc-pVQZ(-PP)//CCSD(T)/cc-pVTZ(-PP) results, the I + (H 2 O) 3 → HI + (H 2 O) 2 OH reaction is predicted to be endothermic by 47.0 kcal mol -1 . The submerged transition state is predicted to lie 43.7 kcal mol -1 above the separated reactants. The I···(H 2 O) 3 entrance complex lies below the separated reactants by 4.1 kcal mol -1 , and spin-orbit coupling has a significant impact on this dissociation energy. The HI···(H 2 O) 2 OH exit complex is bound by 4.3 kcal mol -1 in relation to the separated products. Compared with simpler I + (H 2 O) 2 and I + H 2 O reactions, the I + (H 2 O) 3 reaction is energetically between them in general. It is speculated that the reaction between the iodine atom and the larger water clusters may be energetically analogous to the I + (H 2 O) 3 reaction. The iodine reaction I + (H 2 O) 3 is connected with the analogous valence isoelectronic bromine/chlorine reactions Br/Cl + (H 2 O) 3 but much different from the F + (H 2 O) 3 reaction. Significant difference with other halogen systems, especially for barrier heights, are seen for the iodine systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The impact of spectroscopic incompleteness in direct calibration of redshift distributions for weak lensing surveys

ABSTRACT Obtaining accurate distributions of galaxy redshifts is a critical aspect of weak lensing cosmology experiments. One of the methods used to estimate and validate redshift distributions is to apply weights to a spectroscopic sample, so that their weighted photometry distribution matches the target sample. In this work, we estimate the selection bias in redshift that is introduced in this procedure. We do so by simulating the process of assembling a spectroscopic sample (including observer-assigned confidence flags) and highlight the impacts of spectroscopic target selection and redshift failures. We use the first year (Y1) weak lensing analysis in Dark Energy Survey (DES) as an example data set but the implications generalize to all similar weak lensing surveys. We find that using colour cuts that are not available to the weak lensing galaxies can introduce biases of up to Δz ∼ 0.04 in the weighted mean redshift of different redshift intervals (Δz ∼ 0.015 in the case most relevant to DES). To assess the impact of incompleteness in spectroscopic samples, we select only objects with high observer-defined confidence flags and compare the weighted mean redshift with the true mean. We find that the mean redshift of the DES Y1 weak lensing sample is typically biased at the Δz = 0.005−0.05 level after the weighting is applied. The bias we uncover can have either sign, depending on the samples and redshift interval considered. For the highest redshift bin, the bias is larger than the uncertainties in the other DES Y1 redshift calibration methods, justifying the decision of not using this method for the redshift estimations. We discuss several methods to mitigate this bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development of a Benchmark Eddy Flux Evapotranspiration Dataset for Evaluation of Satellite-Driven Evapotranspiration Models Over the CONUS

A large sample of ground-based evapotranspiration (ET) measurements made in the United States, primarily from eddy covariance systems, were post-processed to produce a benchmark ET dataset. The dataset was produced primarily to support the intercomparison and evaluation of the OpenET satellite-based remote sensing ET (RSET) models and could also be used to evaluate ET data from other models and approaches. OpenET is a web-based service that makes field-delineated and pixel-level ET estimates from well-established RSET models readily available to water managers, agricultural producers, and the public. The benchmark dataset is composed of flux and meteorological data from a variety of providers covering native vegetation and agricultural settings. Flux footprint predictions were developed for each station and included static flux footprints developed based on average wind direction and speed, as well as dynamic hourly footprints that were generated with a physically based model of upwind source area. The two footprint prediction methods were rigorously compared to evaluate their relative spatial coverage. Data from all sources were post-processed in a consistent and reproducible manner including data handling, gap-filling, temporal aggregation, and energy balance closure correction. The resulting dataset included 243,048 daily and 5,284 monthly ET values from 194 stations, with all data falling between 1995 and 2021. We assessed average daily energy imbalance using 172 flux sites with a total of 193,021 days of data, finding that overall turbulent fluxes were understated by about 12% on average relative to available energy. Multiple linear regression analyses indicated that daily average latent energy flux may be typically understated slightly more than sensible heat flux. This dataset was developed to provide a consistent reference to support evaluation of RSET data being developed for a wide range of applications related to water accounting and water resources management at field to watershed scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Search for Higgs Boson and Observation of $Z$ Boson through Their Decay into a Charm Quark-Antiquark Pair in Boosted Topologies in Proton-Proton Collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for the standard model (SM) Higgs boson ($H$) produced with transverse momentum ($p_T$) greater than 450 GeV and decaying to a charm quark-antiquark ($c\bar{c}$) pair is presented. The search is performed using proton-proton collision data collected at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{-1}$. Boosted $H \to c\overline{c}$ decay products are reconstructed as a single large-radius jet and identified using a deep neural network charm tagging technique. The method is validated by measuring the $Z \to c\bar{c}$ decay process, which is observed in association with jets at high $p_T$ for the first time with a signal strength of $1.00^{+0.17}_{-0.14}$ (syst)$\pm 0.08$ (theo) $\pm 0.06$ (stat), defined as the ratio of the observed process rate to the SM expectation. The observed (expected) upper limit on $\sigma (H){\cal B}(H \to c\overline{c})$ is set at 47 (39) times the SM prediction at 95\%confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Training data selection for event classification in a highly variable environment

A problem of interest for nuclear nonproliferation is monitoring activities at nuclear facilities, where proliferation events may only take place a few times and often under variable conditions. Machine learning has revolutionized data analytics by enabling the use of measurable signatures to generate predictive models of facility operations. However, traditional methods for training these models require large, reliable data sets with labeled observations, a challenge for nonproliferation. Highly variable conditions further complicate this as events from training data may have occurred in conditions quite different from the event of interest. Our hypothesis is that when events occur in a highly variable environment, careful training data selection for each test event could outperform the standard approach of using all available training data. We developed a method to optimize training data selection for the given test event and applied it to predicting the power level of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In this study, the reactor startup exhibits variability between occurrences due to natural variability in environmental conditions and operational procedures. Using a combination of analysis techniques, a similitude assessment was performed on data collected from HFIR to isolate clusters that were optimal for training a predictive model. Concepts such as dynamic time warping and Jaccard similarity were used in conjunction with clustering analysis. In order to validate this approach, the model was trained on every combination of unique training events and the predictive performance was compared to the performance using a subset of the training data selected by isolated clusters found through the similitude assessment.

Iyer, A↗

High throughput embryonic zebrafish test with automated dechorionation to evaluate nanomaterial toxicity

Engineered nanomaterials pose occupational health and environmental concerns as they possess unique physical and chemical properties that can contribute to toxicity. High throughput toxicity screening methods are needed to address the increasing number of nanomaterials in production. Here we used a zebrafish photomotor response (PMR) test to evaluate a set of fifteen nanomaterials with military relevance. Automated dechorionation of zebrafish embryos was used to enhance nanomaterials bioavailability. Optimal PMR activity in zebrafish embryos was found at 30–31 hours post-fertilization (hpf). Behavioral and toxicological responses were measured at 30 and 120 hpf; behavioral responses were found for thirteen of the fifteen nanomaterials and acute toxicity (LC50) levels for nine of the fifteen nanomaterials below the maximum test concentration of 500 μg/ml. Physico-chemical characterization of the nanomaterials detected endotoxin and bacterial contamination in two of the tested samples, which may have contributed to observed toxicity and reinforces the need for physical and chemical characterization of nanomaterials use in toxicity testing. The zebrafish PMR test, together with automated dechorionation, provides an initial rapid assessment of the behavioral effects and toxicity of engineered nanomaterials that can be followed up by physico-chemical characterization if toxicity is detected, reducing the amount of time and monetary constraints of physico-chemical testing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

Fermilab Booster is being upgraded for the PIP-II project to support 20Hz ramp rate at higher intensities. Loss trip limits determine the achievable peak power. To meet PIP-II requirements, losses need to be halved as compared to current levels. Losses primarily occur at injection and transition crossing, with both gradually increasing and threshold-like intensity-dependent behaviors. The existing simulation models are not yet good enough for quantitative loss predictions. In practice, it will be necessary to tune up the Booster using iterative methods and operator intuition. In this paper we present an effort to systematically model Booster losses using active learning (Bayesian exploration) techniques, and subsequently to rebalance them for higher trip limit margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. This is a complex task due to safety and timing requirements – we discuss mitigations such as uncertainty constraints and approximate fitting. Once models are stable, we perform large-scale single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives made up of critical beam loss locations. Our results demonstrate significant rebalancing of losses, increasing trip margins, as well as an overall improvement in beam transmission efficiency. We are exploring how to combine existing simulations with experimental data and automate the collection procedure so that more advanced surrogate models can be created over time.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

Circulating levels of micronutrients and risk of osteomyelitis: a Mendelian randomization study

Background Few observational studies have investigated the effect of micronutrients on osteomyelitis, and these findings are limited by confounding and conflicting results. Therefore, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate the association between blood levels of eight micronutrients (copper, selenium, zinc, vitamin B12, vitamin C, and vitamin D, vitamin B6, vitamin E) and the risk of osteomyelitis. Methods We performed the two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) to investigate causation, where instrument variables for the predictor (micronutrients) were derived from the summary data of micronutrients from independent cohorts of European ancestry. The outcome instrumental variables were used from the summary data of European-ancestry individuals ( n = 486,484). The threshold of statistical significance was set at p < 0.00625. Results We found a significant causal association that elevated zinc heightens the risk of developing osteomyelitis in European ancestry individuals OR = 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) [1.07, 1.43]; p = 4.26E-03]. Similarly, vitamin B6 showed a similar significant causal effect on osteomyelitis as a risk factor OR = 2.78 (95% CI [1.34, 5.76]; p = 6.04E-03; in the secondary analysis). Post-hoc analysis suggested this result (vitamin B6). However, the multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) provides evidence against the causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis OR = 0.98(95% CI [−0.11, 0.07]; p = 7.20E-1). After searching in PhenoScanner, no SNP with confounding factors was found in the analysis of vitamin B6. There was no evidence of a reverse causal impact of osteomyelitis on zinc and vitamin B6. Conclusion This study supported a strong causal association between vitamin B6 and osteomyelitis while reporting a dubious causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis.

Zhang, Xu↗

New laser technique for the identification of molecular transitions.

A laser technique is proposed which may be useful for the assignment of molecular spectra in the visible and infrared regions. The method is based on the resonant interaction of two monochromatic fields with a Doppler-broadened three-level system. Under the appropriate conditions the absorption line shape of one of the transitions shows a complex structure over a narrow section of the Doppler profile, and for sufficiently high laser power the line shape splits into a number of narrow peaks. Analysis of the resulting intensity pattern leads to unambiguous assignment of the angular momentum quantum numbers of the three levels involved. A simple set of rules is given to facilitate interpretation of spectra. The line shapes discussed are also relevant to monochromatic optical pumping of gases and unidirectional laser amplifiers.

Skribanowitz, N.↗

Set-point control of nonlinear systems

A method of nonlinear stochastic control is applied to the problem of providing set-point control. The procedure is illustrated for a nonlinear second-order plant. The controller design uses a variation of the 'multiple-model adaptive control' approach. Specific problems related to the design are investigated, including learning time and set-point accuracy dependence on the number of approximating models, chord versus tangent approximations, and the a priori Markov switching parameter values. Simulations are provided for different situations under various levels of measurement noise.

Vanlandingham, H. F.↗

Automating the training development process for mission flight operations

Traditional methods of developing training do not effectively support the changing needs of operational users in a multimission environment. The Automated Training Development System (ATDS) provides advantages over conventional methods in quality, quantity, turnaround, database maintenance, and focus on individualized instruction. The Operations System Training Group at the JPL performed a six-month study to assess the potential of ATDS to automate curriculum development and to generate and maintain course materials. To begin the study, the group acquired readily available hardware and participated in a two-week training session to introduce the process. ATDS is a building activity that combines training's traditional information-gathering with a hierarchical method for interleaving the elements. The program can be described fairly simply. A comprehensive list of candidate tasks determines the content of the database; from that database, selected critical tasks dictate which competencies of skill and knowledge to include in course material for the target audience. The training developer adds pertinent planning information about each task to the database, then ATDS generates a tailored set of instructional material, based on the specific set of selection criteria. Course material consistently leads students to a prescribed level of competency.

Scott, Carol J.↗

Neural Network Repair of Lossy Compression Artifacts in the Sept 2015 – March 2016 Duration of the MMS/FPI Dataset

During the Sept 2015 –March 2016 duration (sometimes referred to as Phase 1A) of the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS), the Dual Electron Spectrometers (DES) were configured to generously utilize lossy compression. While this maximized the number of velocity distribution functions downlinked, it cameat the expense of lost information content for a fractionof the frames. Following this period of lossy compression, the DES was re-configured in a way that allowed for 95% of the framesto arrive to the ground without loss. Using this high-quality set offrameson-orbit observations, we compressed and decompressed the frameson the ground to create a side-by-side record of the compression effect. This record was used to drive an optimization method that (a) derived basis functions capable of approximating the lossless sample space and with non-negative coefficients and (b) fitted a function which maps the lossy framesto basis weights that recreate the framewithout compression artifacts. This methodis introduced and evaluated in this paper.Data users should expect a higher level of confidence in the absolute scale of density/temperature measurements andnotice less sinusoidal bias in the velocity X and Y components(GSE).

Magnetosphere, Neural Networks, Image Processing, ↗

Search for $ {\textrm{B}}_{\textrm{s}}^0 $ → ℓ ∓ τ ± with the semi-leptonic tagging method at Belle

We present a search for the lepton-flavor-violating decays ${B}_s^0$ → ℓ ∓ τ ± , where ℓ = e, μ, using the full data sample of 121 fb -1 collected at the Υ(5S) resonance with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e + e - collider. We use ${B}_s^0{\overline{B}}_s^0$ events in which one ${B}_s^0$ meson is reconstructed in a semileptonic decay mode and the other in the signal mode. We find no evidence for (${B}_s^0$ → ℓ ∓ τ ± decays and set upper limits on their branching fractions at 90% confidence level as $\mathcal{B}$(${B}_s^0$ → e ∓ τ ± ) < 14 × 10 -4 and $\mathcal{B}$ (${B}_s^0$ → μ ∓ τ ± ) < 7.3 × 10 -4 . Our result represents the first upper limit on the ${B}_s^0$ → e ∓ τ ± decay rate.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Leveraging large language models to address data scarcity in machine learning for graphene synthesis

Machine learning in experimental materials science faces significant challenges due to the scarcity of data, which are costly and time-consuming to generate, particularly when relying on in-house experiments. Literature data mining offers a potential solution but introduces issues like mixed data quality, inconsistent formats, and non-uniform reporting of synthesis parameters, resulting in partially missing and heterogeneous features across the dataset. Here, we propose data imputation and feature engineering methods that employ pre-trained large language models (LLMs) to enhance machine learning performance on scarce, heterogeneous datasets, demonstrated on graphene CVD synthesis data and the ML-HydPARK hydrogen storage dataset. GPT models perform data imputation via tailored prompting and semantic normalization of inconsistently reported features through embeddings, for example, to harmonize the complex nomenclature of CVD substrates. Beyond yielding more diverse and richer feature representations than traditional methods such as K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), LLM-based data imputation is evaluated against dataset characteristics and prompting strategies. We vary the level of autonomy granted to the LLM, from generic prompting that leverages pre-trained knowledge for autonomous data generation to data-informed prompting that constrains outputs using target-specific information, and demonstrate which level of autonomy yields superior imputation performance across datasets and feature types. The proposed data engineering methods markedly improve downstream performance; for example, in graphene layer number classification using a support vector machine (SVM), binary accuracy increases from 39% to 65% and ternary accuracy from 52% to 72%. Fine-tuning experiments on both datasets show that combining our proposed LLM-based data imputation and feature encoding methods with numerical machine learning predictors outperforms standalone fine-tuned LLM predictors in data-scarce settings. The proposed strategies emphasize data enhancement techniques rather than refining learning architectures or regularizing loss functions, offering a broadly applicable framework for improving machine learning performance on scarce, inhomogeneous datasets.

Chemical vapor deposition↗

Efficient and universal characterization of atomic structures through a topological graph order parameter

Abstract A graph-based order parameter, based on the topology of the graph itself, is introduced for the characterization of atomistic structures. The order parameter is universal to any material/chemical system and is transferable to all structural geometries. Four sets of data are used to validate both the generalizability and accuracy of the algorithm: (1) liquid lithium configurations spanning up to 300 GPa, (2) condensed phases of carbon along with nanotubes and buckyballs at ambient and high temperature, (3) a diverse set of aluminum configurations including surfaces, compressed and expanded lattices, point defects, grain boundaries, liquids, nanoparticles, all at nonzero temperatures, and (4) eleven niobium oxide crystal phases generated with ab initio molecular dynamics. We compare our proposed method to existing, state-of-the-art methods for the cases of aluminum and niobium oxide. Our order parameter uniquely classifies every configuration and outperforms all studied existing methods, opening the door for its use in a multitude of complex application spaces that can require fine structure-level characterization of atomistic graphs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling of photodegradation in solar cell modules of substrate and superstrate design made with ethylene-vinyl acetate as pottant material

The rates of hydrogen abstraction by peroxy radicals were proven to be too slow for significant oxidation of the alkane substrate to be important. The numerical procedure, independent of our particular data base was verified by reproducing concentration time profiles for a model reaction set describing the cesium flare system in the upper atmosphere. Simulation was identical to that given in the literature. Experimental verification of the data base is to be attempted by weatherometry studies in the coming year. Work on the new diagnostic techniques was completed. The adapted automated viscometer was demonstrated to be an efficient and reliable tool for routine measurements of viscosity (molecular weight) changes in solid samples after batch solutions have been made up. The laser photolysis GC method for monitoring extremely low levels of oxidation in polymers proved to be impractical because the yields of carbon monoxide were too low for quantification. Much progress was made with the computer model. The reaction matrix was completely revised, resulting in a new scheme of 31 reactions and time, lifetimes in excess of ten years. The results to date lead us to some tentative observations.

Somersall, A. C.↗

Ground and flight calibration assessment of HiRAP accelerometer data from missions STS-35 and STS-40

A method of removing non-aerodynamic signals and calibrating the High Resolution Accelerometer Package (HiRAP) flight data was developed and is discussed for Shuttle Orbiter missions STS-35 and STS-40. These two mission data sets were analyzed using ground (dynamic) calibration data and flight calibrations using a flight calibration technique that was developed and refined over the HiRAP operational lifetime. This technique evolved early in the flight program, since it was recognized that ground calibration factors are insufficient to determine absolute low acceleration levels. The application of flight calibration factors to the data sets from these missions produced calibrated acceleration levels within an accuracy of less than plus or minus 1.5 micro-g of zero during a time in the flight when the acceleration level was known to be less than 1 micro-g. This analysis further confirms the theory that flight calibrations are required in order to obtain the absolute measurement of low-frequency, low-acceleration flight signals.

Blanchard, Robert C.↗