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At least 991 records · Page 55

Geospatial mapping of distribution grid with machine learning and publicly-accessible multi-modal data

Abstract Detailed and location-aware distribution grid information is a prerequisite for various power system applications such as renewable energy integration, wildfire risk assessment, and infrastructure planning. However, a generalizable and scalable approach to obtain such information is still lacking. In this work, we develop a machine-learning-based framework to map both overhead and underground distribution grids using widely-available multi-modal data including street view images, road networks, and building maps. Benchmarked against the utility-owned distribution grid map in California, our framework achieves > 80% precision and recall on average in the geospatial mapping of grids. The framework developed with the California data can be transferred to Sub-Saharan Africa and maintain the same level of precision without fine-tuning, demonstrating its generalizability. Furthermore, our framework achieves a R 2 of 0.63 in measuring the fraction of underground power lines at the aggregate level for estimating grid exposure to wildfires. We offer the framework as an open tool for mapping and analyzing distribution grids solely based on publicly-accessible data to support the construction and maintenance of reliable and clean energy systems around the world.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Fine Temperature Grid Continuous Energy Cross Section Generation for Monte Carlo Analysis of Xe-100 Design

The standard “A Compact ENDF (ACE)” data libraries used by Monte Carlo based reactor physics codes calculations are provided by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) with a temperature interval mostly of 300 K (e.g. 300 K, 600 K, 900 K) for the cross sections and between 100 K and 200 K for the thermal scattering libraries (TSL). However, some codes such as MCNP lack capability to perform on-the-fly temperature interpolation during simulation both for neutron and TSL cross-sections. To evaluate the impact related to Doppler broadening and spectrum shift associated with TSL changes, this paper explores the potential of adopting a temperature grid finer than the ones contained in the standard data libraries. A 50 K temperature grid was employed to quantify the error in neutronics calculations due to temperature grid resolution. This was achieved by comparing the results of this study (50 K temperature interval) against the results obtained with standard data libraries (>100 K temperature interval). While the adopted grid primarily relies on the ENDF/B-VII.1 library, for neutron cross-sections, it utilizes ENDF/B-VIII.0 library for TSL. The analyses confirmed that the accuracy of neutronics calculations is satisfactory when using a 50 K temperature grid. Notably, adopting a 50 K temperature grid, as opposed to standard libraries or coarser temperature grids, could lead to a difference of no more than a few hundred pcm in dk for both fresh fuel and burnt fuel. The most sensitive reaction type to the temperature grid was as expected identified as the capture cross-section of U-238.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) Simulation Algorithms for Evaluation of Large-Scale Extreme Fast Charging Systems (T&D Models)

Simulation of high-fidelity models of extreme fast charging (XFC) systems and large-area power grids with many XFCs can be time consuming in traditional simulators. Traditional simulators use a single method of discretization for all the components that results in imposing a large computational burden of inverting a large matrix as well as increased computations related to single method of discretization (that is typically a trapezoidal method). To overcome the problem of simulating large-area power grids with many XFCs, in this paper, advanced numerical simulation algorithms are applied for the first time together to reduce the dimension of matrix inversion. Here, the algorithms include numerical stiffness-based segregation, time constant-based segregation, clustering and aggregation on differential algebraic equations (DAEs), and multi-order integration approaches. These algorithms apply multiple discretization algorithms rather than a single discretization algorithm that further reduces the computational burden. The approaches mentioned here have resulted in speed-up of up to 18x in the simulation of a single distribution system with 15 XFCs and of up to 271x in the simulation of a transmission-distribution system with 300 XFCs in multiple distribution feeders with respect to conventional simulators (like power systems computer aided design [PSCAD]).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Noise and error analysis and optimization in particle-based kinetic plasma simulations

In this paper we analyze the noise in macro-particle methods used in plasma physics and fluid dynamics, leading to approaches for minimizing the total error, focusing on electrostatic models in one dimension. We begin by describing kernel density estimation for continuous values of the spatial variable x, expressing the kernel in a form in which its shape and width are represented separately. The covariance matrix of the noise in the density is computed, first for uniform true density. The bandwidth of the covariance matrix C(x,y) is related to the width of the kernel. A feature that stands out is the presence of constant negative terms in the elements of the covariance matrix both on and off-diagonal. These negative correlations are related to the fact that the total number of particles is fixed at each time step; they also lead to the property ∫C(x,y)dy = 0. We investigate the effect of these negative correlations on the electric field computed by Gauss's law, finding that the noise in the electric field is related to a process called the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge, leading to a covariance matrix of the electric field with variance significantly reduced relative to that of a Brownian process. For non-constant density, p(x), still with continuous x, we analyze the total error in the density estimation and discuss it in terms of bias-variance optimization (BVO). For some characteristic length l, determined by the density and its second derivative, and kernel width h, having too few particles within h leads to too much variance; for h that is large relative to l, there is too much smoothing of the density. The optimum between these two limits is found by BVO. For kernels of the same width, it is shown that this optimum (minimum) is weakly sensitive to the kernel shape. Next, we repeat the analysis for x discretized on a grid. In this case the charge deposition rule is determined by a particle shape. An important property to be respected in the discrete system is the exact preservation of total charge on the grid; this property is necessary to ensure that the electric field is equal at both ends, consistent with periodic boundary conditions. We find that if the particle shapes satisfy a partition of unity property, the particle charge deposited on the grid is conserved exactly. Further, if the particle shape is expressed as the convolution of a kernel with another kernel that satisfies the partition of unity, then the particle shape obeys the partition of unity. This property holds for kernels of arbitrary width, including widths that are not integer multiples of the grid spacing. Furthermore, we show results relaxing the approximations used to do BVO optimization analytically, by doing numerical computations of the total error as a function of the kernel width, on a grid in x. The comparison between numerical and analytical results shows good agreement over a range of particle shapes. We discuss the practical implications of our results, including the criteria for design and implementation of computationally efficient particle shapes that take advantage of the developed theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Efficient Computation of Doppler-Broadened Elastic Scattering Kernel Moments Using Ladder-Operator Formulation

Anefficient routine for computing Legendre moments of the Doppler-broadened elastic scattering kernel, including resonance scattering effects, has been implemented in the ISOXML module of Griffin. Isotropic scattering in the center-of-mass system and the ideal gas model for target motion are assumed. A ladder-operator formulation is introduced to compute all Legendre moments from order 0 to N simultaneously, enabling near-linear scaling of computational cost with respect to the maximum Legendre order. A physics-based strategy for constructing outgoing energy grids has also been developed, in which a tailored base grid is combined with adaptive refinement to maintain accuracy while limiting the number of outgoing energy points. For energies between resonances, a constant cross-section model is employed to further reduce computational cost. In addition, a quantitative criterion is derived to determine isotope-wise cut-off incident energies based on a prescribed up-scattering probability coverage. For 238U, up to incident energies of approximately 75, 230, and 661 eV at 294, 900, and 2500 K (corresponding to a 2% up-scattering probability threshold), computation of P0 kernels requires 1–8 s and computation of P0–P5 kernels requires 0.4–4 min using a single thread, while maintaining 1–3% relative error in up-scattering probability. These results demonstrate that the proposed formulation enables accurate and computationally practical Doppler-broadened kernel generation for online multigroup cross-section production in Griffin.

Doppler-broadening↗

A coupled discontinuous Galerkin-Finite Volume framework for solving gas dynamics over embedded geometries

Herein, we present a computational framework for solving the equations of inviscid gas dynamics using structured grids with embedded geometries. The novelty of the proposed approach is the use of high-order discontinuous Galerkin (dG) schemes and a shock-capturing Finite Volume (FV) scheme coupled via an hp adaptive mesh refinement (hp-AMR) strategy that offers high-order accurate resolution of the embedded geometries. The hp-AMR strategy is based on a multi-level block-structured domain partition in which each level is represented by block-structured Cartesian grids and the embedded geometry is represented implicitly by a level set function. The intersection of the embedded geometry with the grids produces the implicitly-defined mesh that consists of a collection of regular rectangular cells plus a relatively small number of irregular curved elements in the vicinity of the embedded boundaries. High-order quadrature rules for implicitly-defined domains enable high-order accuracy resolution of the curved elements with a cell-merging strategy to address the small-cell problem. The hp-AMR algorithm treats the system with a second-order finite volume scheme at the finest level to dynamically track the evolution of solution discontinuities while using dG schemes at coarser levels to provide high-order accuracy in smooth regions of the flow. On the dG levels, the methodology supports different orders of basis functions on different levels. The space-discretized governing equations are then advanced explicitly in time using high-order Runge-Kutta algorithms. Numerical tests are presented for two-dimensional and three-dimensional problems involving an ideal gas. The results are compared with both analytical solutions and experimental observations and demonstrate that the framework provides high-order accuracy for smooth flows and accurately captures solution discontinuities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulations of hybrid system varying solar radiation and microturbine response time

Hybrid power systems, such as combinations of renewable power sources with intermittent power production and non-renewable power sources, theoretically increase the reliability and thus integration of renewable sources in the electrical system. However, a recent increase in the number of hybrid installations has sparked interest in the effects of their connection to the grid, especially in remote areas. This paper analyses a photovoltaic-gas microturbine hybrid system dimensioned to be installed in La Paz (Mexico).The research presented in this paper studies and quantifies the effects on the total electric power produced, varying both the solar radiation and the gas microturbine response time. The gas microturbine and the photovoltaic panels are modelled using Matlab/Simulink software, obtaining a platform where different tests to simulate real conditions have been executed. They consist of diverse ramps of irradiance that replicate solar radiation variations, and different microturbine response times reproduced by the time constants of a first order transfer function that models the microturbine dynamic response. The results obtained show that when radiation varies quickly it does not produce significant differences in the power guarantee or the microturbine gas consumption, to any microturbine response time. However, these two parameters are highly variable with smooth radiance variations. The maximum total power variation decreases greatly as the radiation variation gets lower. In addition, by decreasing the microturbine response time, it is possible to appreciably increase the power guarantee although the maximum power variation and gas consumption increase. Only in cases of low radiation variation is there no appreciable difference in the maximum power variation obtained by the different turbine response times.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Accelerating Time Integration for the Shallow Water Equations on the Sphere Using GPUs

The push towards larger and larger computational platforms has made it possible for climate simulations to resolve climate dynamics across multiple spatial and temporal scales. This direction in climate simulation has created a strong need to develop scalable time-stepping methods capable of accelerating throughput on high performance computing. This work details the recent advances in the implementation of implicit time stepping on a spectral element cube-sphere grid using graphical processing units (GPU) based machines. We demonstrate how solvers in the Trilinos project are interfaced with ACME and GPU kernels can significantly increase computational speed of the residual calculations in the implicit time stepping method for the shallow water equations on the sphere. We show the optimization gains and data structure reorganization that facilitates the performance improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intrinsic Security Design for Tomorrow’s Energy Systems

With the introduction of smart devices and rise in distributed, networked energy systems, diligent focus on cybersecurity for an evolving grid is crucial. Watch this video to learn more about what NREL is doing to mitigate threats to today’s energy infrastructure and provide a pathway to a more secure and resilient energy future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Geophysical Constraints on Decarbonized Systems—Building Spatio-Temporal Uncertainties into Future Electricity Grid Planning

Future electricity grids will be characterized by the high penetration of renewables to support the decarbonization process. Yet, this transition will further expose grids to a broad spectrum of geophysical forces, such as weather and climate, land and space, minerals and materials. Understanding their role is thus important to support the grid decarbonization process. Here, we synthesize the current body of knowledge on the relationship between geophysical constraints and electricity grid planning. Additionally, we show that there have been promising advances in the data, methods, and modelling tools needed to incorporate the effect of geophysical constraints on demand, resource availability, and grid operations. There are, however, multiple research avenues that deserve further attention. More system-specific and finer-scale analyses are necessary to better understand how spatio-temporal variability---and associated uncertainty---in geophysical forces affect grid planning. Moreover, we need a broader focus on the multi-sectoral implications of grid decarbonization efforts, so as to limit the risk of unintended consequences. Importantly, all these efforts are challenged by the computational requirements of existing power system models, which often limit our ability to characterize uncertainty, scale analyses across larger domains, or study the multi-sector implications of grid expansion decisions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NREL’s Virtual Cyber Research Platform

Watch this video to learn how NREL researchers are evaluating the interdependencies between power systems and network communication flows when cyber and physical threats to the grid occur. NREL’s cybersecurity researchers have developed an emulated, multilayer grid environment at the ESIF, where they can safely launch attacks in the virtual world on both emulated and actual physical devices throughout the facility—and evaluate how they would respond to an attack in the real world.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

EMAPS: An Efficient Multiscale Approach to Plasma Systems with Non-MHD Scale Effects

Global interactions of energetic ions with magnetoplasmas and neutral gases lie at the core of many space and laboratory plasma phenomena ranging from solar wind entry into and transport within planetary magnetospheres and exospheres to fast-ion driven instabilities in fusion devices to astrophysics-in-lab experiments. The ability of computational models to properly account for physical effects that underlie such interactions, namely ion kinetic, ion cyclotron, Hall, collisional and ionization processes is important for the success and planning of experimental research in plasma physics. Understanding the physics of energetic ions, in particular their nonlinear resonance interactions with Alfvén waves, is central to improving the heating performance of magnetically confined plasmas for future energy generation. Fluid models are not adequate for high-beta plasmas as they cannot fully capture ion kinetic and cyclotron physics (e.g., ion behavior in the presence of magnetic nulls, shock structures, plasma interpenetration, etc.). Recent results from global reconnection simulations show that even in a MHD-like regime there may be significant differences between kinetic and MHD simulations. Therefore, kinetic modeling becomes essential for meeting modern day challenges in plasma physics. The hybrid approximation is an intermediate approximation between the fluid and fully kinetic approximations. It eliminates light waves, removes the electron inertial temporal and spatial scales from the problem and enables full-orbit ion kinetics. As a result, hybrid codes have become effective tools for exploring ion-scale driven phenomena associated with ion beams, shocks, reconnection and turbulence that control the large-scale behavior of laboratory and space magnetoplasmas. A number of numerical issues, however, make three-dimensional (3D) large-scale hybrid simulations of inhomogeneous magnetized plasmas prohibitively expensive or even impossible. To resolve these difficulties we have developed a novel Event-driven Multiscale Asynchronous Parallel Simulation (EMAPS) technology that replaces time stepping with self-adaptive update events. Local calculations are carried out only on an “as needed basis”. EMAPS (i) guarantees accurate and stable processing of physical variables in time accurate simulations, and (ii) eliminates unnecessary computation. Applying EMAPS to the hybrid model has resulted in the development of a unique parallel code, dimension-independent (compile-time-configurable) HYPERS (Hybrid Parallel Event-Resolved Simulator) that scales to hundreds of thousands of parallel processors. HYPERS advances electromagnetic fields and particles asynchronously on time scales determined by local physical laws and mesh properties. To achieve high computational accuracy in complex device geometries, HYPERS employs high-fidelity Cartesian grids with masked conductive cells. The HYPERS model includes multiple ion species, energy and momentum conserving ion-ion collisions, and provides a number of approximations for plasma resistivity and vacuum regions. Both local and periodic boundary conditions are allowed. The HYPERS solver preserves zero divergence of magnetic field. The project has demonstrated HYPERS capabilities on a number of applications of interest to fusion and astrophysical plasma physics applications listed below. 1. Theta-pinch formation of FRCs The formation, spontaneous spin-up, and stability of theta-pinch formed field-reversed configurations have been studied self-consistently in 3D. The end-to-end hybrid simulations reveal poloidal profiles of implosion-driven fast toroidal plasma rotation and demonstrate three discharge regimes as a function of experimental parameters: the decaying stable configuration, the tilt unstable configuration, and the nonlinear evolution of a fast growing tearing mode. 2. FRC collisions with magnetic mirrors Interactions of fast plasma streams and objects with magnetic obstacles (dipoles, mirrors, etc) lie at the core of many space and laboratory plasma phenomena ranging from magnetoshells and solar wind interactions with planetary magnetospheres to compact fusion plasmas. HYPERS simulations are compared with data from the MSX experiment (LANL) that focuses on the physics of magnetized collisionless shocks through the acceleration and subsequent stagnation of FRC plasmoids against a strong magnetic mirrors and flux-conserving boundaries. 3. Exploding magnetoplasmas Results from hybrid simulations of two experiments at the LAPD and Nevada Terawatt Facility are discussed where short-pulse lasers are used to ablate solid targets to produce plasmas that expand across external magnetic fields. The first simulation recreates flutelike density striations observed at the leading edge of a carbon plasma and predicts an early destruction of the magnetic cavity in agreement with experimental evidence. In the second simulation a polyethylene target is ablated into a mixture of protons and carbon ions. A mechanism is demonstrated that allows protons to penetrate the magnetic field in the form of a collimated flow. The results are compared to experimental data and single-fluid MHD simulations. The EMAPS framework has the potential for wide application in many other engineering and scientific fields, such as climate models, biological systems, electronic devices, seismic events, oil reservation simulators that all involve advancing solutions of partial differential equations in time where the rate of activity can be adapted widely over the spatial domain depending on locally space/time phenomena (“events”).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Situational awareness-enhancing community-level load mapping with opportunistic machine learning

Motivated by present and forthcoming challenges in the adoption and integration of distributed renewable energy, we develop a machine learning (ML) approach that builds short-fuse mappings connecting the occasionally-unobservable true load in one target community with information-rich signals collected from relatively more instrumented reference communities. Our setting is inspired by and tailored to target communities with significant unobservable behind-the-meter solar generation, where true load (a relatively well-behaved quantity of interest to grid operators) is hard to discern during daytime due to insufficient instrumentation and/or privacy reasons, but that can be related to reference communities with low unobservable distributed variable generation or with sufficient instrumentation. The developed mapping, herein realized with Support Vector Machine regression, is built using nighttime data from all communities, when their distributed generation is low or zero. Our ML algorithm opportunistically learns to correlate signals of interest and then is operationally used the next day to shed light into target community load evolution. The mapping is subsequently rebuilt, rolling its short-fuse scope perpetually forward in time. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on nine synthetically generated topologies and associated timeseries stemming from real-world data, on which we observe cumulative error performance that yields lower than 10% and 15% daily-averaged mean absolute percentage errors in target community load estimation on more than about 75% and 90% of days, respectively, in multiple yearly evaluations that shed light on long-term performance also under seasonal and one-off effects. The proposed ML-powered methodology can offer grid operators much-improved visibility into a previously obscure space and can also serve as an additional source of information in broader, multi-modal solar disaggregation solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A New CIERRA Gridded Product Climatology for LIS/OTD

The GLM-CIERRA processing generates two products: A level-2 cluster feature dataset that merges flashes that should have been a single flash following the clustering algorithm flash definition (for GLM, this is due to the LCFA thresholds); A set of level-3 gridded products including Flash Extent Density, Convective Probability, etc. The CIERRA Level-3 products are generated on a 0.1 degree grid. This is suboptimal given the spatial variations in GLM pixel size AND the size of gridpoints in the output grid. As a stepping-stone towards developing improved GLM-CIERRA grids, I am testing pixel matching techniques on the LIS/OTD data. The goal is to maintain accuracy while vastly improving computational efficiency. The CIERRA reclustering codes are also being applied to LIS / OTD to merge flashes split by the “first fit” clustering technique. The end result will be standardized grids at the nominal resolution of each instrument (5 km for LIS, 10 km for OTD) that take into account the pixel geometry for each event that comprises a given reclustered flash.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitigating the Impacts of Uncertain Geomagnetic Disturbances on Electric Grids: A Distributionally Robust Optimization Approach

Severe geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) increase the magnitude of the electric field on the Earth’s surface (E-field) and drive geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) along the transmission lines in electric grids. These additional currents can pose severe risks, such as current distortions, transformer saturation and increased reactive power losses, each of which can lead to system unreliability. Today several mitigation actions (e.g., changing grid topology) exist that can reduce the harmful GIC effects on the grids. Making such decisions can be challenging, however, because the magnitude and direction of the E-field are uncertain and non-stationary. In this paper, we model uncertain E-fields using the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach that determines optimal transmission grid operations such that the worst-case expectation of the system cost is minimized. We also capture the effect of GICs on the nonlinear AC power flow equations. For solution approaches, we develop an accelerated column-and-constraint generation (CCG) algorithm by exploiting a special structure of the support set of uncertain parameters representing the E-field. Extensive numerical experiments based on “epri-21” and “uiuc-150” systems, designed for GMD studies, demonstrate (i) the computational performance of the accelerated CCG algorithm, (ii) the superior performance of distributionally robust grid operations that satisfy nonlinear, nonconvex AC power flow equations and GIC constraints, in comparison with standard stochastic programming-based methods during the out-of-sample testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cybersecurity Considerations for Emerging Energy Technologies

AI, cloud computing, post-quantum cryptography, zero-trust architectures, microgrids, and virtual power plants. What do these things have in common? They are all emerging technologies in the clean energy space that will be a critical part of grid modernization efforts. As we work towards clean energy and decarbonization targets, these technologies, developed to solve real-world problems, will help us reach goals and achieve new efficiencies as the paradigm of grid operation shifts. However, there are growing concerns about the cybersecurity risks associated with these trending topics as they are used in critical infrastructure applications. This talk will cover gaps, challenges, and opportunities for the secure implementation of grid modernization solutions and novel energy applications of state-of-the-art networking and communications. Proactive risk mitigation strategies, including the application of cyber-informed engineering, will be discussed. Practical applications of these techniques will help provide countermeasures to the impact of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure technologies in a new, digitized grid landscape.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗