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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Report for LANSCE Futures Spring 2021 Workshop Series

The Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) has a long and successful history of delivering high-impact science for NNSA missions. The breadth of science LANSCE delivers is enabled by a unique combination of beam power, flexibility, and authorization basis. Though LANSCE is entering its 50th year of operations, current plans for the stockpile require LANSCE capabilities beyond 2050. These requirements demand a technical conversation about the accelerator and the long-term scientific vision for the facility, so we convened a set of workshops to initiate that conversation. The LANSCE Futures workshops spanned three capability areas of LANSCE: dynamic radiography, scattering science, and nuclear science. Participants included the relevant experts from the programs sponsoring LANSCE, the experimentalists utilizing the end-stations, and accelerator systems experts. A final workshop combined the three focus areas to begin the conversation about capabilities that could meet future mission needs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling Electric Generation Capital Costs with Uncertain Future CO 2 Pricing

As new environmental regulations are reevaluated and various tax subsidies begin to expire, the outlook for investors in power generation may be more uncertain than ever. There are many electric power generation studies and forecasts published by a wide array of entities from private consulting firms to government agencies and national labs. These studies show which power generation technologies are favored to be constructed under the assumptions within each future scenario, and many people in businesses and government use these studies for planning purposes and decision-making. One common need for assumptions in these studies is the rate of return investors will require for constructing new generation. It is shown in this paper that for each one percent added to the cost of capital (CoC) above a base level, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) increases by 1-to-4 percent for generation with a 30-year life and debt term, a length commonly used for conventional generation. Therefore, if analysts make a distinction in the CoC for different technologies without quantitative support, it could result in misleading technologies being chosen as favored when facing regulatory uncertainty. The practice of adding a penalty (percentage adder) to the CoC was initially discovered in the Annual Energy Outlook, published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This paper presents the framework typically used in scenario analysis for selecting a CoC, consistent with the practice in long-range planning models that seek to identify the best future generation technologies for meeting electricity demand. Examples are provided on why full specification and consistency is necessary to obtain accurate results for any scenario. It is also shown in this paper how the mischaracterization of regulatory uncertainty to address the uncertainty about CO2 mitigation in a scenario can lead to a misleading outcome when applying a risk penalty to the CoC. The analysis presented shows that applying a 3-percentage penalty to the CoC for fossil generation implies a different price per ton for each generation technology, which suggests the uncertainty about CO2 regulations would best be addressed through pricing sensitivity analyses rather than penalties added to the CoC.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Future Role of Hydropower in the Northeastern United States: May 2020-May 2022

This paper explores the future role of hydropower in the Northeastern US and beyond. The intent is to provide experience-based insights into how hydropower can best support the reliable and economic evolution of the New England power system and, more broadly, all US grids. Many of the challenges facing New England are driven by the potential integration of 10s of GWs of variable energy resources. Hydro can assist in remediating several issues, and the paper explores how Hydro might hit above its weight in a future low carbon New England system. Hydro can assist in handling periods of over generation, reduce the risk of curtailment of zero carbon resources, improve market efficiency, and provide valuable essential reliability services.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study

To better understand distributed wind opportunities in the United States, researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory explored cost, performance, and valuation benchmarks necessary for distributed wind to achieve widespread commercial viability in the United States by 2035. Building on DOE's prior benchmark report "Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects", the new Distributed Wind Futures Study employs higher-resolution data and new modeling techniques to highlight geographic trends in technical and economic potential and to compare the cost and performance of distribution-connected, megawatt-scale wind applications (referred to as "front-of-the-meter" applications) and behind-the-meter systems, thereby informing the case for investment. The report identifies the best locations and sectors for behind-the-meter and front-of-the-meter applications and provides data to inform the trade-offs consumers face when deciding between distributed wind and solar photovoltaic (PV).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future of Energy Efficiency in Buildings: Drivers and Market Expectations [Slides]

This slide-deck report identifies drivers of energy efficiency in buildings over the next 10 years, for all fuels. The report also provides insights on what the future of efficiency may look like in that time period and considers other distributed energy resources, as well as decarbonization and demand flexibility, to the extent they are intertwined with efficiency activities. Understanding market drivers and possible future market attributes for energy efficiency can help policy makers, regulators and industry make informed decisions—for example, how best to design policies and investments to support desired outcomes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2020) and Future (2030-2035) Technologies

This study provides a comprehensive life cycle analysis (LCA), or cradle-to-grave (C2G) analysis, of the cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a variety of vehicle-fuel pathways, the levelized cost of driving (LCD) and cost of avoided GHG emissions. The C2G analysis assesses light duty midsize sedans and small sport utility vehicles (SUVs) across a variety of vehicle-fuel technology pathways, including conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flexible hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with varying vehicle ranges, and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Coming at a timely manner, given the marked increase, since 2016, in climate aspirations announced by governmental institutions and private firms both in the US and across the globe, this analysis builds on a previous comprehensive life cycle analysis, updating that study’s 2016 assumptions and methods (Elgowainy et al. 2016). These updates incorporate technological advances and changes in energy supply sources that have emerged during the intervening period. Utilizing these updated assumptions and methods, alongside more recent data, the present report accounts for a broader range of vehicle technologies and considers both current (2020) and expected future (2030-2035) conditions. Reflecting increased research interest in synthetic liquid fuels produced using renewable low-carbon electricity and CO 2 sources, electro-fuels (a.k.a. e-fuels) were added to the potential future fuel technologies that are evaluated. This study takes a “pathway” approach rather than a “scenario” approach; hence distinct, technically feasible, routes or sequences of processes starting with one or more feedstocks and ending with an intermediate or a final product are examined, not necessarily constrained by practical feedstock, economic, policy, and market considerations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study [Slides]

To better understand distributed wind opportunities in the United States, researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory explored cost, performance, and valuation benchmarks necessary for distributed wind to achieve widespread commercial viability in the United States by 2035. Building on DOE's prior benchmark report "Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects", the new Distributed Wind Futures Study employs higher-resolution data and new modeling techniques to highlight geographic trends in technical and economic potential and to compare the cost and performance of distribution-connected, megawatt-scale wind applications (referred to as "front-of-the-meter" applications) and behind-the-meter systems, thereby informing the case for investment. The report identifies the best locations and sectors for behind-the-meter and front-of-the-meter applications and provides data to inform the trade-offs consumers face when deciding between distributed wind and solar photovoltaic (PV).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Future of 3D Printing [Slides]

This report is about the future of 3D printing and discusses differences between 5-axis and conventional printing, as well as the technology used to accomplish the 5th axis. Achieved prints, different patterns and future innovations is also discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Milestone Report: Co-Scheduling Applications on Current and Future Architectures

This report evaluates the viability and performance of co-scheduling scientific applications and workloads between CPUs and GPUs on current and future hardware architectures. This study was performed by collecting hardware independent and memory performance characteristics of 6 ECP mini-applications through Byfl and NSight Systems, by measuring the applications’ co-scheduled performance on current node architectures, and by gathering memory bandwidth utilization data with Intel Advisor and nvprof to begin reasoning about the feasibility of co-scheduling applications on future APU architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Future of US Particle Physics - The Snowmass 2021 Energy Frontier Report

This report, as part of the 2021 Snowmass Process, summarizes the current status of collider physics at the Energy Frontier, the broad and exciting future prospects identified for the Energy Frontier, the challenges and needs of future experiments, and indicates high priority research areas.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Criticality Experiments Research Center Futures: A Report of a Workshop held September 6-9, 2022, Los Alamos, NM, November, 2022

Experiments and training with critical assemblies and fissionable material (at or near the critical state) that explore reactivity phenomena are central to a number of national security challenges. From fission energy to nuclear weapons to a broad suite of scientific challenges, it is clear that additional capacity and capability are needed. The National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) marked 10 years of operations in 2021. This anniversary was an opportune time to celebrate our successes and progress, and to evaluate the remaining and emergent challenges. Against this backdrop, a workshop of approximately 140 national and international leaders in nuclear research was convened in Los Alamos, New Mexico to explore “NCERC Futures.” Therefore, the present workshop focused specifically on needed capabilities and tools to meet the research challenges in eight topical mission areas served by NCERC. As each Topical Group summarized their discussions in the out brief, it was recognized that key challenges could be met through enabling infrastructure investments and new critical assemblies. Enabling infrastructure includes staffing, additional space/buildings, developing an agile bounding safety basis, the ability to keep pace with technological advances in detectors and data acquisition systems (allowing use of those with Bluetooth™ and similar technologies), an expanded set of materials options (especially plutonium), a “Plug and Play” design and implementation mindset, and a facility that enabled free-field measurements. The new critical assemblies that were identified as having the most impact were a bare plutonium (Pu) Critical Assembly, a Horizontal Split Table (HST), a Super Comet, and a Uranium Solution Burst Assembly. NECRC is a unique, one-of-a-kind facility in the United States. If all the improvements were to be made, NCERC would enable the United States and its partners to address many important research questions related to criticality. These include but are not limited to: (1) Covering the entire neutron energy spectrum for both highly enriched uranium (HEU) and Pu in configurations for virtually all conceivable applications; (2) Performing multi-physics solution experiments and irradiations with a Uranium Solution Burst Assembly, which more closely resembles actual criticality accidents; (3) Conducting free-field experiments to make basic fission physics measurements and much cleaner benchmarks with various experimental observables; and (4) Providing more training classes and more experiments annually at greater cost efficiency enabled by additional buildings and machines and an agile, bounding, risk-balanced Safety Basis. In the end, workshop attendees enthusiastically concluded that NCERC Futures are bright and the workshop helped to identify a roadmap of capability gaps that need to be addressed. This report documents the results of those efforts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2019

SRF materials: Current understanding and future directions

Superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) technology is being used in discovery science programs and basic research and it holds the potential for several applications that have a direct impact on society. The advantage of superconducting cavities over those made of normal-conducting metal is their ability to store large amounts of energy with much lower dissipation. The direction of future SRF technology is the development of high-performance superconducting radio frequency particle accelerators that deliver consistent performance with economically sustainable operation. So far bulk niobium is the material of choice for the fabrication of SRF cavities and recent advances in processing techniques improved the performance of these structures, although the fundamental physics behind these processes hasn?t been fully understood yet. The performance of these cavities are linked to the metallurgical state of niobium during fabrication and processing steps that greatly affect the superconducting properties in the microwave frequency range. In this talk, I will present the current status of cavities processing techniques, Nb materials specification and future directions in order to develop high performance SRF cavities.

Dhakal, Pashupati↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bright Solar Futures

The Bright Solar Futures (BSF) program addresses national climate and energy concerns by fulfilling the need for more solar technicians. About to enter its 5th year, the program demonstrates how the need for alternative energy can be addressed through a sustainable education and employment strategy. Career and Technical Education (CTE) Solar programs in the U.S. that train young adults for employment in the solar industry are in demand. Bright Solar Futures is designed to fill this local and national need as a replicable high school solar curriculum for CTE students.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Volume 1: Introduction to the HFIR Futures - Enhanced Capabilities Series

Since it began operating at full power in 1966, the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) has contributed unparalleled neutron science capabilities to research on neutron scattering, isotope production, materials and fuels irradiation, and neutron activation analysis. HFIR is a high-performance, multi-mission research reactor operated on behalf of the US Department of Energy (DOE) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). In 2020, a DOE Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee Subcommittee (BESAC) published a report recommending that DOE make significant investments in HFIR to enable continued operations beyond the year 2100 while also enabling new research and isotope production capabilities. ORNL organized an initiative to investigate how to specifically address the report’s key recommendations, including enabling long-term operation, brainstorming future scientific research needs, and outlining the infrastructure required to realize these future research capabilities. A multivolume series of reports has been developed to document the nonscattering enhancements. This volume, the introductory report, provides an overview of HFIR and the initiative.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Dynamic Co-Evolution of Space Policy and Technology: Historical Overview and Lessons for Assessing Future Trends [Slides]

The course goal is to provide participants with better understanding of the dynamic evolution between space policy, technology and world events in order to (1) anticipate the potential impacts of evolving space security policy on technical research and development needs for current and future space operations; (2) anticipate how technical research and development advancements might shape future directions and implementation of space security policy; and (3) develop more impactful research and development proposals and effective policy initiatives.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Existing OpenStudio Measures: Reviews, Interviews, and Future Developments

OpenStudio Measure development is continuously in progress and greatly propelled by the collaborative efforts within the building energy modeling community. To ensure the widespread adoption and benefit of OpenStudio Measures, developers must understand the current status of Measure development and the needs of OpenStudio Measure users. The first step involves a comprehensive review of existing content to prevent redundancy and gain insights into how OpenStudio Measures are used in the building energy modeling community. This knowledge can then be integrated into the Measure development process, and the expertise of practitioners and OpenStudio Measure users can be leveraged to shape future Measures. Numerous OpenStudio Measures have been created and shared on the Building Component Library (BCL). The BCL is an open-source repository housing various OpenStudio-related resources, including building component blocks, descriptive metadata, and Measures describing modifications to building energy models. The OpenStudio Measures in BCL encompass a wide range of energy conservation Measures from basic lighting power reduction to complex HVAC model transformation. They also enable users to generate customized reports and facilitate the integration of energy simulation with other analytical processes. This report presents review of 272 currently available OpenStudio Measures in BCL. The OpenStudio Measures were reviewed by category and subcategory. These Measures are summarized by their functionalities and keywords. To gain insights into how OpenStudio Measures are used in building energy modeling community, interviews were conducted. A total of 12 interview responses were collected from 6 individuals in the industry and 6 individuals in academia. The knowledge acquired from reviewing the existing Measures and interview results will be integrated into the Measure development process, and the expertise of practitioners and OpenStudio Measure users will be leveraged to shape future Measures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

NSE workplace of the future: Enabling a LPS ready workforce

The future mission success of the Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) relies on our workforce and our workplace. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review notes that “the health of the enterprise depends critically on recruiting and retaining a skilled and diverse workforce” and the 2022 National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Strategic Vision articulates a commitment to “recruit, invest in, and nourish a high-performing, diverse, and flexible workforce that can meet the unique policy, technical, and leadership needs of our mission today and well into the future.”

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗