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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗
NASA NTRS1995

Observations of lightning in the stratosphere

An examination and analysis of video images of lightning, captured by the payload bay TV cameras of the space shuttle, provided a variety of examples of lightning in the stratosphere above thunderstorms. These images were obtained on several recent shuttle flights while conducting the Mesoscale Lightning Experiment (MLE). The images of stratospheric lightning illustrate the variety of filamentary and broad vertical discharges in the stratosphere that may accompany a lightning flash. A typical event is imaged as a single or multiple filament extending 30 to 40 km above a thunderstorm that is illuminated by a series of lightning strokes. Examples are found in temperate and tropical areas, over the oceans, and over the land.

Boeck, William L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Supersonic Test of the 10-Inch Bifurcated Two-Stage Supersonic Inlet (BTSSI)

Experimental results from testing of a novel supersonic inlet model in NASA Glenn Research Center's 10- by 10-foot supersonic wind tunnel are presented. The patented inlet concept, called Two-Stage Supersonic Inlet (TSSI), incorporates a large cavity, or throat slot, in the supersonic diffuser intended to enhance the stability of the normal shock. The present embodiment of the concept is a bifurcated twin-duct) design. During the course of testing an unusual 'semi-started' mode of operation was encountered. The inlet was able to spill up to 30 percent of the captured airstream without fully expelling the normal shock. In this mode, the total pressure recovery dropped approximately 6 percent without increasing steady-state distortion. Dynamic instrumentation at the cowl lip station indicates the semi-start mode may be a series of unstart/restart cycles with frequency ranging from 0.2 to 20 Hz. Engine face total pressure measurements indicate a modest impact due to this event. However, since the current test article does not have a representative subsonic diffuser (and is in fact separated), it is unclear how this mode of operation would effect an engine. Further investigation of this phenomenon is required before it is fully understood. Prior testing of the TSSI concept allowed extension of fully started inlet operation to regions of significantly reduced supply flow without reducing recovery. The test article was a smaller scale than the present test and was a single duct design. In the present test, the expanded range of stable operation with high recovery was not realized.

Carlin, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Multiplexing Technology for Acoustic Emission Monitoring of Aerospace Vehicles

The initiation and propagation of damage mechanisms such as cracks and delaminations generate acoustic waves, which propagate through a structure. These waves can be detected and analyzed to provide the location and severity of damage as part of a structural health monitoring (SHM) system. This methodology of damage detection is commonly known as acoustic emission (AE) monitoring, and is widely used on a variety of applications on civil structures. AE has been widely considered for SHM of aerospace vehicles. Numerous successful ground and flight test demonstrations have been performed, which show the viability of the technology for damage monitoring in aerospace structures. However, one significant current limitation for application of AE techniques on aerospace vehicles is the large size, mass, and power requirements for the necessary monitoring instrumentation. To address this issue, a prototype multiplexing approach has been developed and demonstrated in this study, which reduces the amount of AE monitoring instrumentation required. Typical time division multiplexing techniques that are commonly used to monitor strain, pressure and temperature sensors are not applicable to AE monitoring because of the asynchronous and widely varying rates of AE signal occurrence. Thus, an event based multiplexing technique was developed. In the initial prototype circuit, inputs from eight sensors in a linear array were multiplexed into two data acquisition channels. The multiplexer rapidly switches, in less than one microsecond, allowing the signals from two sensors to be acquired by a digitizer. The two acquired signals are from the sensors on either side of the trigger sensor. This enables the capture of the first arrival of the waves, which cannot be accomplished with the signal from the trigger sensor. The propagation delay to the slightly more distant neighboring sensors makes this possible. The arrival time from this first arrival provides a more accurate source location determination. The multiplexer also identifies which channels are acquired by encoding TTL logic pulses onto the latter portion of the signals. This prototype system was demonstrated using pencil lead break (Hsu-Neilsen) sources on an aluminum plate. It performed as designed providing rapid low noise trigger based switching with encoded channel identification. this multiplexing approach is not limited to linear arrays, but can be easily extended to monitor sensors in planar ot three dimensional arrays. A 32 channel multiplexing system is under development that will allow arbitrary sensor placement. Another benefit of this multiplexing system is the reduction in the expense of data acquisition hardware. In addition, the reduced weight and power requirements are of extreme importance for proposed AE systems on aerospace vehicles.

Prosser, William↗
NASA NTRS2013

TPSAS-NF1676L-17243-DND

This presentation captures ERA Project's effort in using integrated cost-schedule-risk analysis tool, identifying and capturing explicit relationships between program funds, schedule, and discrete risks. The project team merged a myriad of cost and schedule data for timely, objective, uncertainty analysis of the ITD's budget and schedule. The project team conducted detailed schedule uncertainty analysis showing schedule activities and how their interrelationships were impacted, representing an impressive advance beyond routine Gantt charts. Furthermore, the ERA Project collected discrete risk events including their impacts to costs and/or schedule and interwove these risks into cost and schedule logic networks, providing the foundation to conduct cost and schedule analyses. The team integrated this data into the analysis model, providing probabilistic results that were then used by the ERA Project's senior management for decision-making purposes. The ERA Project management team, through technical and pathfinder expertise in integrating cost, schedule, risk, and technical content, consistently provided risk-informed recommendations to Implementing Centers and ISRP senior management which ultimately ensured the successful ARMD Key Decision Point (KDP) review of the ERA Phase 2 ITD Portfolio and increased the likelihood of achieving technical objectives within cost and schedule constraints.

Gaudy M Bezos-O'Connor↗
NASA NTRS2020

Polyvinyl Alcohol and Medium Density Polyethylene Composite Materials for Neutron Radiation Shielding

Manned spacecraft venturing beyond the Earth’s Van Allen Belts will be subjected to high levels of radiation from both energetic particles emanating from the sun and from galactic atomic events, such as supernovae. The metal shell of a spacecraft offers some protection from gamma radiation and high energy particles originating from both the sun and cosmic sources. The interaction of these high energy particles and radiation with the spacecraft hull create secondary radiation and neutrons, additional hazards for astronauts and electronic systems. Shielding of neutrons is the most challenging of the high energy radiation, since neutrons have zero charge and are least affected by electrical fields, magnetic fields, and atomic forces. Previous studies showed that polyethylene is an effective neutron shielding material, due to its high hydrogen content. High energy neutrons are slowed to thermal neutrons through multiple collisions with the hydrogen atoms, increasing the effectiveness of neutron capture by boron-10 atoms. This study discusses the fabrication and testing of polyvinyl alcohol (PVOH) samples as a neutron shielding material, with comparison to medium density polyethylene (MDPE) composite samples to be used for neutron shielding for spacecraft. PVOH, an aqueous polymer, was chosen for hydrogen content and for enabling the use of organic reinforcement such as cellulose for secondary structural composites. OLTARIS (On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space) was used for radiation shielding simulation and compared with experimental data. Modeling indicates that the most effective shielding from radiation was in an aluminum layer backed by a polymer layer, either MDPE or PVOH. Cross-linked PVOH was also included in the OLTARIS modeling. All 3 polymer cases showed shielding improvement over aluminum alone, with similar dose equivalent reduction for galactic cosmic radiation(GCR)and for radiation from a solar particle event (SPE). Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectroscopy was used to confirm the cross-linking in the PVOH sample and to determine the uniformity through the thickness. PVOH, cross-linked PVOH, and MDPE samples were tested for neutron shielding effectiveness using a 1 curie Americium-Beryllium neutron source. Test results indicated the most shielding in the cross-linked PVOH, followed by the pristine PVOH, and MDPE. Neutron testing suggests that polyvinyl alcohol is a good alternative to polyethylene for neutron shielding. The neutron shielding materials, PVOH and cross-linked PVOH developed under this research will enable the safe operation of spacecraft beyond the Earth’s protective Van Allen Radiation Belts. It will be crucial for NASA’s manned missions to the Moon or Mars to protect the health of astronauts and equipment from the harmful effects of excessive radiation.

neutron, shielding, radiation, polyvinyl alcohol, ↗
DOE OSTI2024

A framework to enhance disaster debris estimation with AI and aerial photogrammetry

This study addresses the critical need to enhance disaster preparedness and response, focusing on hurricane impact assessment and debris estimation. Accurate assessments in this context are critical for post-event search-and-rescue (SAR) operations and resource distribution. Recent computing advancements are revealing the potential of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in collecting data and assisting with post-hurricane reconnaissance. However, the use of AI and UAV photogrammetry for accurate disaster impact analysis remains underexplored. To this end, this study proposes a damage and debris analysis framework harnessing reality capture through aerial imagery and photogrammetry. Within this framework, a region-based neural network is leveraged to detect debris locations in aerial imagery with favorable performance. In a testbed within the Beaumont-Port Arthur region, in Southeast Texas, this study performs 3D reality captures of the built environment. Since the accuracy of the 3D reality capture is of importance in research areas associated with time-sensitive disaster response, we further investigate the optimal 2D aerial imagery overlap ratio required to generate a sufficiently accurate 3D model for disaster impact analysis and debris volume estimation. Results indicate that, in the case of aerial imagery for infrastructure systems, a minimum of 60 % overlap is recommended for damage assessment and debris analysis. In contrast, for flat green areas, a minimum of 50 % overlap is adequate. Overall, for disaster response applications, our study reveals that an overlap ratio between 60 % and 70 % is optimal for achieving a balance between time efficiency and data quality in aerial data collection. Furthermore, these quantitative recommendations are crucial for enabling efficient disaster response efforts. Additionally, our study outcomes will improve disaster impact analysis and facilitating timely and effective response strategies.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2021

SPiRaL: a multiresolution global tomography model of seismic wave speeds and radial anisotropy variations in the crust and mantle

SUMMARY SPiRaL is a joint global-scale model of wave speeds (P and S) and anisotropy (vertical transverse isotropy, VTI) variations in the crust and mantle. The model is comprised of >2.1 million nodes with five parameters at each node that capture velocity variations for P- and S-waves travelling at arbitrary directions in transversely isotropic media with a vertical symmetry axis (VTI). The crust (including ice, water, sediments and crystalline layers) is directly incorporated into the model. The default node spacing is approximately 2° in the lower mantle and 1° in the crust and upper mantle. The grid is refined with ∼0.25° minimum node spacing in highly sampled regions of the crust and upper mantle throughout North America and Eurasia. The data considered in the construction of SPiRaL includes millions of body wave traveltimes (crustal, regional and teleseismic phases with multiples) and surface wave (Rayleigh and Love) dispersion. A multiresolution inversion approach is employed to capture long-wavelength heterogeneities commonly depicted in global-scale tomography images as well as more localized details that are typically resolved in more focused regional-scale studies. Our previous work has demonstrated that such global-scale models with regional-scale detail can accurately predict both teleseismic and regional body wave traveltimes, which is necessary for more accurate location of small seismic events that may have limited signal at teleseismic distances. SPiRaL was constructed to predict traveltimes for event location and long-period waveform dispersion for seismic source inversion applications in regions without sufficiently tuned models. SPiRaL may also serve as a starting model for full-waveform inversion (FWI) with the goal of fitting waves with periods 10–50 s over multiple broad regions (thousands of kilometres) and potentially the globe. To gain insight to this possibility, we simulated waveforms for a small set of events using SPiRaL and independent waveform-based models for comparison. For the events tested, the performance of the traveltime-based SPiRaL model is shown to be generally on par with regional 3-D waveform-based models in three regions (western United States, Middle East, Korean Peninsula) suggesting SPiRaL may serve as a starting model for FWI over broad regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model

LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model) is a three-dimensional orbital debris evolutionary model that is capable of simulating the historical and future debris populations in the near-Earth environment. The historical component in LEGEND adopts a deterministic approach to mimic the known historical populations. Launched rocket bodies, spacecraft, and mission-related debris (rings, bolts, etc.) are added to the simulated environment. Known historical breakup events are reproduced, and fragments down to 1 mm in size are created. The LEGEND future projection component adopts a Monte Carlo approach and uses an innovative pair-wise collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate the future breakups and the growth of the debris populations. This algorithm is based on a new "random sampling in time" approach that preserves characteristics of the traditional approach and captures the rapidly changing nature of the orbital debris environment. LEGEND is a Fortran 90-based numerical simulation program. It operates in a UNIX/Linux environment.

Liou, Jer Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2017

An Evaluation of Teleconnections Over the United States in an Ensemble of AMIP Simulations with the MERRA-2 Configuration of the GEOS Atmospheric Model

The atmospheric general circulation model that is used in NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) is evaluated with respect to the relationship between large-scale teleconnection patterns and daily temperature and precipitation over the United States (US) using a ten-member ensemble of simulations, referred to as M2AMIP. A focus is placed on four teleconnection patterns that are known to influence weather and climate in the US: El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American Pattern. The monthly and seasonal indices associated with the patterns are correlated with daily temperature and precipitation statistics including: (i) monthly mean 2 m temperature and precipitation, (ii) the frequency of extreme temperature events at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and (iii) the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events classified at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles.Correlations obtained with M2AMIP data and thus the strength of teleconnections in the free-running model are evaluated through comparison against corresponding correlations computed from observations and from MERRA-2. Overall, the strongest teleconnections in all datasets occur during the winter and coincide with the largest agreement between the observations, MERRA-2, and M2AMIP. When M2AMIP does capture the correlation seen in observations, there is a tendency for the spatial extent to be exaggerated. The weakest agreement between the data sources, for all teleconnection patterns, is in the correlation with extreme precipitation; however there are discrepancies between the datasets in the number of days with at least 1 mm of precipitation: M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the Northwest and the Northern Great Plains and too many days in the Northeast. In JJA, M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the western two-thirds of the country and too many days with precipitation along the east coast.

JJA↗
NASA NTRS2019

Photon Sieve Design and Fabrication for Imaging Characteristics Using UAV Flight

The Photon Sieve (PS) team at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) began receiving support for the development and characterization of PS devices through the NASA Internal Research & Development Program (IRAD) in 2015. The project involves ascertaining the imaging characteristics of various PS devices. These devices hold the potential to significantly reduce mission costs and improve imaging quality by replacing traditional reflector telescopes. The photon sieve essentially acts as a lens to diffract light to a concentrated point on the focal plane like a Fresnel Zone Plate (FZP). PS’s have the potential to focus light to a very small spot which is not limited by the width of the outermost zone as for the FZP and offers a promising solution for high resolution imaging. In the fields of astronomy, remote sensing, and other applications that require imaging of distant objects both on the ground and in the sky, it is often necessary to perform post-process filtering in order to separate noise signals that arise from multiple scattering events near the collection optic. The PS exhibits a novel filtering technique that rejects the unwanted noise without the need for time consuming post processing of the images. This project leverages key Langley resources to design, manufacture, and characterize a series of photon sieve specimens. After a prototype was developed and characterized in the Langley ISO5 optical cleanroom and laboratory, outside testing was conducted via the capture of images of the moon by using a telescopic setup. This next goal of the project is to design and develop a telescope and image capture system as a drone-based instrument payload. The vehicle utilized for the initial demonstration was a NASA hive model 1200 XE-8 research Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), capable of handling a 20-pound maximum payload with a 25-minute flight time. This NASA Technical Memorandum (NASA-TM) introduces preliminary results obtained using a PS-based imaging system on the UAV. The next version of the telescope structure will be designed around diffractive optical components and commercially available camera electronics to create a lightweight payload.

Kim, Hyun Jung↗
NASA NTRS2024

The Diurnal Variation of Dust and Water Ice Aerosol Optical Depth at Jezero Crater Observed By MEDA/TIRS Over A Full Martian Year

The Thermal InfraRed Sensor (TIRS) on the Perseverance rover has provided nearly two full Mars years of systematic monitoring of the total aerosol optical depth above Jezero Crater. These observations span a wide range of timescales, capturing seasonal patterns, diurnal variations, and minute-to-minute fluctuations in aerosol loading. By combining TIRS retrievals with orbital observations, the relative contributions of dust and water ice aerosols can be estimated, revealing their different seasonal and diurnal behaviors. The TIRS record shows distinct periods of dust storm activity, including strong regional storms during the perihelion season as well as short lived but intense dust events outside the typical dust storm season. Water ice clouds exhibit pronounced seasonal and diurnal variability, with peak activity occurring during the aphelion season but with a presence throughout the year. The diurnal variation of clouds differs significantly between the aphelion and perihelion seasons, with clouds persisting throughout the night during the aphelion season, while largely absent outside of specific periods after sunrise and sunset during the perihelion season. These results provide new insights into the complex behavior of aerosols at Jezero Crater and their connections to atmospheric dynamics and the Martian dust and water cycles.

Michael D Smith↗
DOE OSTI2020

Search for $\mu^- \rightarrow e^+$ conversion: what can be learned from the SINDRUM-II positron data on a gold target

In their 2006 paper setting the current limit on \mumemconv\ conversion search on a gold target \cite{sindrum_ii:Bertl2006}, the SINDRUM-II collaboration published, along with the electron momentum distribution, the momentum distribution of reconstructed positrons. Near the positron spectrum endpoint, there is a statistically significant excess of observed events over the expected background. We estimate that in the region 88 MeV/c < p < 95 MeV/c there are 13 events with an expected background of about 1-1.5 event, which has not been discussed by the authors. Those 13 events form a bump with a width consistent with the experimental resolution, making one think of a $\mu^- \rightarrow e^+$ conversion signal. However, the reconstructed position of the bump is about 1 MeV/c, or $\sim\ 4\sigma_p$, lower than the expected $\mu^- Au \rightarrow e^+ Ir $ signal, which strongly discourages the exotic interpretation. The excess, however, could be due to an exclusive dipole radiative muon capture (RMC) transition $^{197}Au(GS) ~\rightarrow~ ^{197}Pt(GS)$ with the branching fraction of about $2\cdot 10^{-4}$. Such a transition would not be resolved by the existing RMC measurements. We conclude that the exclusive RMC transitions could significantly modify the positron spectrum near the kinematic endpoint, to fully exploit the physics potential of the upcoming experiments such as Mu2e and COMET, a better theoretical understanding of the RMC spectrum on nuclei is needed. A high-resolution measurement of the RMC photon spectra has to be carried out. Without that, the sensitivity of the searches for $\mu^- \rightarrow e^+$ and $\mu^- \rightarrow e^-$ might be severely limited by unknown probabilities of RMC transitions to the exclusive low-lying states of the daughter nuclei.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rare Lepton Decays and Differentiable Hadronization Models - From Signatures of New Physics to Data-driven Event Generation

This dissertation is partitioned into two parts: phenomenological studies focused on rare lepton decays as probes of heavy and light new physics, and the development of differentiable, data-driven hadronization models. Part I develops the phenomenology of new physics signatures stemming from rare charged lepton flavor violating decays probed by experiments at the intensity frontier. These include interactions mediated by both high-scale effective operators and light new physics, manifesting in multi-lepton final states ($\mu \to 5e$), elastic nuclear transitions ($\mu \to e$ conversion), baryon-number-violating muon capture, and time-dependent signals from ultralight dark matter ($\mu \to e \phi, \tau \to \ell \phi$). Part II develops two distinct strategies for advancing differentiable and data-driven hadronization models. One involves comprehensive reweighting frameworks for hadronization that enable efficient uncertainty estimation, facilitate parameter tuning, and interface naturally with differentiable programming paradigms. The other introduces machine-learning-based methods for extracting microscopic fragmentation dynamics directly from macroscopic observables through the deformation of existing models -- effectively providing solutions to the inverse problem of hadronization. Altogether, these studies advance the interpretability, flexibility, and precision of theoretical predictions for both high-intensity and high-energy experiments.

Menzo, Tony [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000022013457↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heavy Elements and Electromagnetic Transients from Neutron Star Mergers

Compact binary mergers involving neutron stars can eject a fraction of their mass to space. Being extremely neutron rich, this material undergoes rapid neutron capture nucleosynthesis, and the resulting radioactivity powers fast, short-lived electromagnetic transients known as kilonova or macronova. Such transients are exciting probes of the most extreme physical conditions and their observation signals the enrichment of the Universe with heavy elements. Here the current understanding of the mass ejection mechanisms, the properties of the ejecta, and the resulting radioactive transients are reviewed. The first well-observed event in the aftermath of GW170817 delivered a wealth of insights, but much of today's picture of such events is still based on a patchwork of theoretical studies. Apart from summarizing the current understanding, questions where no consensus has been reached yet are also pointed out, and possible directions for the future research are sketched. In an appendix, a publicly available heating rate library based on the WinNet nuclear reaction network is described, and a simple fit formula to alleviate the implementation in hydrodynamic simulations is provided.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

3D printing of void-free glass monoliths: rheological and geometric considerations

Direct ink writing (DIW) is a versatile additive manufacturing technique capable of printing 3D architectures from a broad range of materials. The key advantage of DIW is the ability to spatially control both the architecture and the composition of the printed part, which enables the production of components with previously unachievable combinations of functionalities. One emergent application space for DIW has been in additively manufactured glass optics, where a “green body” is patterned layer-by-layer by extruding a silica-based slurry through a microfluidic nozzle and then thermally consolidated to transparent glass. A critical aspect of the process is ensuring that the printed part is completely free of voids that can occur in the interstitial spaces between the extruded filaments. This outcome is governed by the interplay between ink rheology and strains imposed by the printing process and geometric packing of the filaments. Here, we explore the strain- and rate-dependent deformation events in the DIW process to determine conditions that enable the printing of void-free monoliths without sacrificing shape fidelity. We focus on yield stress fluids consisting of fumed silica nanoparticles dispersed in organic solvents at varied volume fractions to control the rheological properties. We investigate the printability of these ink materials as a function of print process variables and devise the appropriate dimensionless parameters that capture the geometry-dependent and rate-dependent effects on the deformation of the extruded ink. Lastly, we use these scaling arguments to construct a phase diagram for void-free monolith printability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mapping Philadelphia's Floodscape: A 35‐Year Analysis of Coastal Urban Flood Hazards and Drivers

Low-lying coastal urban cities face significant flooding risks from river flooding (fluvial), storm surges and high tides (coastal), and intense local rainfall (pluvial). Accurately assessing these hazards requires modeling frameworks capable of capturing both the individual and combined effects of multiple flood drivers, as well as the diversity of flood scenarios that can arise from their interactions. In this study, we implemented a physics-based, high-resolution modeling approach to assess flood hazards in Philadelphia, PA, a coastal city exemplifying multi-driver flood risks over multiple decades (1985–2019), by simulating a wide range of flood events at a 10-m resolution. By integrating watershed, coastal, and urban flood models, we explicitly resolved the interaction between fluvial, pluvial, and coastal processes across the city. From these simulations, we identified flood hazard hotspots and systematically attributed the primary drivers of flooding for each event. The results suggested that 44% of Philadelphia's flood events were compound floods, primarily driven by fluvial-surge and fluvial-pluvial combinations. Notably, 77% of these events involved fluvial flooding, either as a single flood driver or in combination with other drivers, underscoring the dominant role of riverine processes in the city's flood hazard. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of a comprehensive, process-based approach for urban flood hazard assessment and highlights the importance of considering the full spectrum of flood scenarios to inform targeted and adaptive flood management strategies in coastal cities.

Compound flooding↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atmospheric-river-induced precipitation in California as simulated by the regionally refined Simple Convective Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) Version 0

Abstract. Using the regionally refined mesh (RRM) configuration of the US Department of Energy's Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM), we simulate and evaluate four meteorologically distinct atmospheric river events over California. We test five different RRM configurations, each differing in terms of the areal extent of the refined mesh and the resolution (ranging from 800 m to 3.25 km). We find that SCREAM RRM generally has a good representation of the AR-generated precipitation in CA, even for the control simulation which has a very small 3 km refined patch, and is able to capture the fine-scale regional distributions that are controlled largely by the fine-scale topography of the state. It is found that SCREAM generally has a wet bias over topography, most prominently over the Sierra Nevada mountain range, with a corresponding dry bias on the lee side. We find that refining the resolution beyond 3 km (specifically 1.6 km and 800 m) has virtually no benefit towards reducing systematic precipitation biases but that improvements can be found when increasing the areal extent of the upstream refined mesh. However, these improvements are relatively modest and only realized if the size of the refined mesh is expanded to the scale where employing RRM no longer achieves the substantial cost benefit it was intended for.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗