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DOE OSTI2022

Analysis Program 2021 Annual Progress Report

During fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021), the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) funded analysis projects supportive of VTO’s goals to pursue early-stage research in vehicle and mobility system technologies to reduce petroleum dependence, increase energy reliability and security, improve transportation affordability, and promote economic growth. VTO analysis projects result in a foundation of data, analytical models, and applied analyses that provide insights into critical transportation energy problems and assist in research investment prioritization and portfolio planning. This document presents a brief overview of VTO analysis efforts and progress for projects funded in FY 2021. Each of the progress reports includes project objectives, approach, and highlights of the technical results that were accomplished during the fiscal year (FY).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

FECM/NETL Offshore CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model Version 1 – QuickStart Guide

The purpose of this QuickStart is to assist users in operating the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management/National Energy Technology Laboratory (FECM/NETL) Offshore Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM_Offshore) Version 1. This manual outlines the major outputs, provides an overview of how the outputs are calculated, and provides a more detailed understanding of how a user can edit the inputs to affect outputs for the purpose of evaluating a storage project aimed for conducting operations in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) of the Gulf of America (GOA).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable and Cost-Effective Solution to the U.S. Housing Crisis: A Case Study on Locally Manufactured Modular Multifamily Housing

This case study assesses waste management efficiencies in modular buildings compared to traditional construction methods. We focus on the modular 1-bedroom Model/Z unit by Model Z Modular, LLC. As part of the collaboration between Model Z Modular and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we analyzed waste metrics from design through construction, contrasting these findings against conventional stick-built and site-built multifamily buildings. The Model/Z unit is part of a strategic effort to address affordable housing shortages in South Los Angeles, where household income challenges are pronounced. The unit is produced in a state-of-the-art 150,000 sq. ft. modular manufacturing facility located within the city it is serving, and has so far supported the production of over 1,500 affordable housing units. Model/Z units have been used in projects with as many as 195 units, achieving large economies of scale and time. Our analysis demonstrates that modular construction reduces waste compared to traditional methods. This reduction is achieved through precise prefabrication techniques, the implementation of new framing methods, the concentration of workforce expertise, and streamlined logistics, which optimize material use and greatly reduce on-site handling. Additionally, local manufacturing minimizes transportation needs, improving overall project efficiency. The Model/Z unit exemplifies a scalable solution for enhancing housing affordability by optimizing resource utilization and minimizing associated costs. These methods support the delivery of high-quality units at reduced expenses, addressing critical urban housing shortages effectively. This case study underscores Model Z Modular's commitment to producing affordable, quality housing while fostering economic opportunities through job creation and training programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy Improvements of Fire Station 71

Since 2018, the City of Shawnee, Kansas has completed two phases of the State of Kansas Facility Conservation Improvement Program (FCIP), an initiative that guarantees operational cost and energy savings through targeted construction improvements on City facilities and infrastructure. The City is currently in the third phase of this FCIP, where one of the projects included an investment in energy improvements for Fire Station 71 (FS 71). The City partnered with Navitas, an Energy Service Company (ESCO), to implement a Photovoltaic Solar Array on FS71. The purpose of this project was to invest in sustainable building improvements with Energy Conservation Measures (ECM) to bring cost savings to the City and to provide sustainable benefits to the residents of Shawnee. In the first task of the project, Navitas collaborated with the City of Shawnee and the Community Development Department to determine the optimal layout and schedule for the installation of the solar array on FS 71. In the second task of the project, Navitas installed the 99.8 kW DC Photovoltaic solar array system. This system installation comprised of racking, inverters, optimizers, load center, and disconnect, which were all installed at a total ECM price of $\$$247,948. The third task focused on start-up and commissioning of the array. Navitas installed a real-time data analytics information management system integrated with utility meters, which evaluates the operations of the utility system and verifies operation of equipment and ensures optimum operation for energy efficiency. In the final task of this project, this analytics system was used for monitoring and verification, which will continue to be used to evaluate the success of the project for the coming years. The primary goal of the project was to install the 99.8 kW DC PV solar array at FS 71 to demonstrate the viability of solar energy systems in essential municipal facilities. Fire stations are energy demanding structures, as they require a constant intake of power and have a high baseline energy usage. The success of solar arrays on a fire station exemplifies their energy efficiency and effectiveness and displays their potential for application on other city facilities. By installing a solar array at such a facility, the City sought not only to offset electricity usage but also to serve as a model for ECMs in other municipal facilities and infrastructure projects. From an economic standpoint, this project demonstrates the feasibility of renewable energy at the municipal level. The total project cost of $\$$247,948 was split evenly between city funds and award funding, minimizing financial risk while ensuring guaranteed long-term savings. Any excess savings that are beyond the guaranteed minimums remain with the city, which enables future investment in sustainable energy initiatives. This project provides many benefits to the public. In addition to reducing the environmental footprint of city operations, it lowers taxpayer-funded utility spending and improves the energy security of a critical facility. The knowledge gained from this implementation motivates the City to focus on similar efforts across other public facilities in future FCIP phases and other City projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deployment Feasibility Futures Analysis of Natural Gas Combined Cycle with Carbon Capture in Five U.S. Regions

A broad suite of technologies will be required to enable the United States to meet the current goal of a zero-carbon power sector by 2035, while continuing to provide the U.S. consumer with reliable, secure, stable, and affordable electricity. This study was conducted to evaluate the competitiveness of a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) with carbon capture and storage (CCS) in five independent system operating areas, the PJM interconnection (PJM) regional transmission organization, Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), Western Electricity Coordinating Council’s (WECC) Northwest Power Pool (NWPP) region, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC) in the 2030 to 2035 time horizon. The modeling and simulation efforts focused on determining the dispatch characteristics and the economic feasibility of constructing an NGCC plant with CCS in each of those regions. The analysis indicates that a NGCC system with CCS can be economically viable in the ERCOT and PJM regions. Additional revenue stream and/or capacity payments are required in MISO, NWPP, and SERC to enable successful commercial deployment of a NGCC with CCS.

Pickenpaugh, Gavin↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Blending into Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure: Review of the State of Technology

Hydrogen is an energy carrier that could play an important role in reducing emissions associated with difficult-to-decarbonize sectors including peaking and load-following electricity and industrial heating. Blending hydrogen into the natural gas pipelines has been proposed as an approach for achieving near-term emissions reductions and early-market access for hydrogen technologies such as electrolyzers. Numerous challenges and uncertainties complicate this approach to natural gas decarbonization, however, and this review summarizes current research on the material, economic, and operational factors that must be considered for hydrogen blending. First, this review explores previous research regarding the effects of blending hydrogen on gas mixture fluid and thermodynamic properties, pipeline materials and equipment performance within transmission and distribution networks, and supporting facilities such as underground storage and end-use hydrogen separation. We also investigate and summarize studies that developed mathematical models of natural gas pipeline networks with hydrogen blending, and the operational and techno-economic findings of these network studies. Finally, we discuss notable hydrogen blending demonstrations and their key outcomes. Many blending demonstrations internationally have proven that low hydrogen percentage blending is feasible under very specific scenarios with limited end-usage applications on both high-pressure transmission lines and low-pressure distribution lines. This report summarizes findings from literature into key areas of consensus and disagreement. Research gaps and disagreements between the literature are highlighted to provide directions for future hydrogen blending research.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis of Data-Driven and Transactive Approaches for Resilience Enhancement

As extreme weather events lead to more frequent power outages, understanding and enhancing grid resilience is critical to mitigating economic losses and non-energy impacts from service disruptions. Here, this study introduces a novel techno-economic analysis framework for evaluating resilience enhancement mechanisms. The framework combines grid response modeling with a co-simulation approach and valuation methodology to provide a comprehensive assessment. We apply this framework to a realistic case study of the Texas grid during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Two advanced resilience strategies are analyzed: a data-driven rolling outage mechanism and a transactive energy (TE) based allocation scheme. The rolling outage scheme selectively serves customers based on real-time curtailment needs, while the TE scheme allows customers to trade energy allocations according to their preferences. Our findings show that both the rolling outage and TE schemes significantly outperform conventional methods (i.e. controlled outages) by reducing the amount of energy not supplied to customers by 41% and 64%, respectively. These approaches also enhance flexibility and customer satisfaction, while improving energy utilization for greater resilience. Additionally, they maintain thermal comfort about 3.5 times better and substantially lower customer risk exposure. A key contribution of this study is addressing both utility and customer perspectives while considering both energy and non-energy impacts. The techno-economic analysis indicates that implementing these resilience enhancement strategies would incur an additional 1.1Bto1.6B in utility costs but has the potential to avoid 17.3Bto18B of customer losses as compared to existing solutions, thereby underscoring the value of investing in advanced resilience, as it provides significant societal benefits to customers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Resource Assessment for Distributed Wind Energy: An Evaluation of Best-Practice Methods in the Continental US

Current wind resources within the United States (US) indicate a potential to profitably install nearly 1,400 gigawatts of distributed wind (DW) capacity. This amount is equivalent to over half of the United States’ current energy demand from electricity, making it enough to power millions of homes and businesses and replace countless fossil fuel-based generating plants. Despite the potential growth of DW in the US, deployments are presently hindered by a lack of confidence in resource estimation methods. One potential challenge is that smaller-scale turbines, with hub heights of 40 meters or less, are disproportionately impacted by obstacles such as buildings and vegetation. These obstacles may produce complex wake effects, best modeled with high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models that are too computationally expensive to use for routine siting and resource assessment. Thus, installers today make use of heuristics and simple equations to approximate the impact of obstacles while also leveraging long-term resource data from commercial or publicly available atmospheric models. This study evaluates these historical and commonly used methods alongside new lower-order obstacle models produced from CFD simulations and measurement-based bias correction. The preliminary results from this study show the importance of taking care in the choice and application of mesoscale atmospheric models and the significant value of bias correction using measurements from nearby meteorological towers. Detailed obstacle modeling provides only modest additional gains in performance and, in some cases, can add error, especially at sites where turbines have already been located to avoid obvious impact from upwind obstacles. These findings reinforce the importance of collecting in situ measurements and suggest that obstacle models may be better applied in practice to automated or computer-aided siting, rather than in economic wind resource assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

FORCE Development Status Update: Vertical Integration and Benchmarking of System Dynamics

Recent efforts to establish effective models for grid energy analysis, especially given the increase in variable renewable energy (VRE) sources and the economic challenges faced by traditional nuclear energy, have generated new technological considerations. One effort to improve the economic viability of nuclear power involves investigating integrated energy systems (IES) which include secondary energy systems that introduce flexibility and secondary market possibilities to existing and perceived future nuclear energy generation technologies. To analyze the technical and economic potential of IES, the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite was developed through a collaboration among national laboratories. Within the FORCE tool suite, the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) provides algorithms for analyzing the long-term viability of potential IES technologies, while HYBRID provides algorithms and models to achieve high-resolution analysis of coupling physics over a short time period. Continued maturing of the FORCE tool suite requires further interconnections between the various tools in the suite in order to ensure consistent analysis. Analyses performed by applying HYBRID to transient process modeling should be easily harvestable as inputs to HERON analyses. The first item in this status update is a demonstration of an automated data pipeline for loading data from HYBRID into HERON analyses. Application of HYBRID results to HERON, as part of using the FORCE tool suite, relies on robust modeling assumptions for the various models included in HYBRID. The second result of this status update is the benchmarking and validation of cost and operational data, with a particular focus on natural gas energy generators. These generators are benchmarked with a focus on contrasting them with proposed thermal energy storage (TES) technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Technical and economic feasibility of an integrated ethanol and anthocyanin coproduction process using purple corn stover

The coproduction of high-value anthocyanin extract in the cellulosic ethanol process would diversify the co-product market, increase revenue, and potentially improve the economics of the process. The high anthocyanin concentration in the cob and structural carbohydrates in residual stover make purple corn stover an attractive source for anthocyanin and ethanol coproduction. In this study, we aimed to develop simulation models for processes integrating ethanol production and anthocyanin extraction using purple corn stover, to evaluate their techno-economic feasibility, and to compare their performance with the conventional ethanol production process using corn stover. The annual ethanol production for plants processing 2000 MT dry feedstock / day was 148.6 million L/year for the integrated processes compared with 222.6 million L/year for the conventional process. Anthocyanin production in the modified processes using dilute acid-based and water-based anthocyanin extraction processes was 1779 and 1099 MT/year, respectively. Capital investments for the integrated processes ($\$448.1$ to $\$443.8$ million) were higher than the conventional process ($\$371.9$ million). Due to high revenue from anthocyanin extract, the ethanol production cost for the integrated process using acid-based anthocyanin extraction ($\$0.36$/L) was 34.5% lower than conventional ethanol production ($\$0.55$/L). The ethanol production cost for the integrated process using water-based anthocyanin extraction ($\$0.68$/L) was higher than conventional ethanol production due to low ethanol and anthocyanin yields. The minimum ethanol selling price for the integrated process using acid-based anthocyanin extraction ($\$0.65$/L) was also lower than the conventional process ($\$0.72$/L), indicating an improvement in economic performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Open-source microreactor design models for technoeconomic assessments

Technoeconomic analyses for advanced nuclear technologies are essential for identifying cost drivers which allow for optimizing the technology to achieve better economic performance. Microreactors are emerging as a promising and reliable-energy solution, offering inherent safety, low capital investment, and rapid deployment capabilities. Past studies have conducted technoeconomic analyses for microreactors, but there remains a need for open-source technoeconomic models that can enhance collaboration, transparency, and consistency when performing this type of analysis. The present article introduces an open-source technoeconomic model for microreactors based on bottom-up cost estimation. Since no real cost data for microreactors exists, this model leverages cost data and insights gleaned from the Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) project. It estimates the first-of-a-kind cost of two microreactor technologies and can also calculate the N th of a kind (NOAK) cost via accounting for learning and mass factory production. The two technologies considered in this paper are the liquid–metal thermal reactor (LTMR) and the gas-cooled microreactor (GCMR). In conclusion, the goal of this study is to demonstrate bottom-up cost estimation of these microreactor technologies and provide the cost estimation models that other users can leverage for various applications such as design optimization and financial planning.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data from Economic Perspective of Ethanol and Biodiesel Coproduction from Industrial Hemp

In this study, the economics of producing biofuels from an industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa) genotype – 19m96136 was investigated. A lignocellulosic biofuel plant, hourly consuming 85 metric tons of hemp biomass was modeled in SuperPro Designer®. The integrated bioenergy plant produced hemp biodiesel and bioethanol from lipids and carbohydrates, respectively. The structural composition of the industrial hemp plant was analyzed in a previous study. The data obtained was used to simulate feedstock composition in SuperPro Designer®. The simulation results indicated that Hemp containing 2% lipids can yield up to 3.95 million gallons of biodiesel annually. On improving biomass lipid content to 5 and 10%, biodiesel production increased to 9.88 and 19.91 million gallons, respectively. The breakeven unit production cost of hemp biodiesel with 2, 5, and 10% lipid containing hemp was $18.49, $7.87, and $4.13/gallon, respectively. The biodiesel unit production cost when utilizing 10% lipid-containing hemp was comparable to soybean biodiesel at $4.13/gallon. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis revealed the possibility of a 7.80% reduction in unit production cost upon a 10% reduction in hemp feedstock cost. Furthermore, industrial hemp was capable of producing between 307.80 and 325.82 gallons of total biofuels per hectare of agricultural land than soybean.

Conversion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China

China has committed to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060 to combat global climate change, which will require unprecedented deployment of negative emissions technologies, renewable energies (RE), and complementary infrastructure. At terawatt-scale deployment, land use limitations interact with operational and economic features of power systems. To address this, we developed a spatially resolved resource assessment and power systems planning optimization that models a full year of power system operations, sub-provincial RE siting criteria, and transmission connections. Our modeling results show that wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with one plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions in 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today. Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind is constructed within 100 km of major load centers when accounting for current policies regarding land use. Large-scale low-carbon systems must balance key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs. Under more restrictive RE siting policies, at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand, where utility-scale deployment is limited by competition with agricultural land. Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China’s climate goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage: An optimization study on techno-economic analysis

Here, this study performs a techno-economic analysis of hydrogen underground storage systems for grid electricity storage, evaluating their economic viability at the plant scale using dynamic optimization. It explores the feasibility of various system configurations and revenue models in the context of volatile electricity prices and the necessity for multiple revenue streams. The hypothesis tested is that large-scale hydrogen storage, despite its low round-trip efficiency, can be economically viable with the right mix of revenue streams. This study uses scenario-based analysis to assess the impacts of different system configurations, including engaging in time-shifting arbitrage, ancillary service markets and blending hydrogen with natural gas. Results indicate potential annual net cash flows of up to $\$$1.5 million from ancillary services integration and $\$$5.2 million from natural gas blending, contingent on specific system sizes. The study concludes that hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage can be profitable, and emphasizes that proper system design and precise electricity price forecasting are crucial for optimizing system performance and economic returns. This research sets the stage for further investigations into the scalability of hydrogen storage systems and their broader implications for grid electricity storage and energy market dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

IM3 Data Center Driven Grid Stress Dataset for the U.S. Western Interconnection

This dataset provides projected grid stress and reliability results (including all model inputs and outputs from an open-source grid operations modeling framework - GO), for the Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project, under varying levels of data center demand growth between 2025 and 2035 in the U.S. Western Interconnection. The scenarios and sensitivity experiments are combinations of different data center demand growth rates and energy, weather, population and economic pathways. Data center demand growth projections were sourced from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The data center demand growth projection names are: Low (3.71% annual data center demand growth) Moderate (5% annual data center demand growth) High (10% annual data center demand growth) Higher (15% annual data center demand growth) Energy, weather, population and economic pathways are informed by two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) following the hotter general circulation model (GCM) forcing group from a set of perturbed thermodynamics simulations. The resulting pathway names are: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The main scenarios and sensitivity experiments are detailed below. Reference scenario: The projected grid stress and reliability results for the U.S. Western Interconnection from a previous study. This scenario does not consider data center demand growth explicitly. Data center scenario: Building on the reference scenario, this scenario considers various data center growth rates and how they impact the U.S. Western Interconnection. Data center loads are modeled as flat 8760-hr profiles. This scenario does not consider new generation and transmission capacities specifically designed to meet the new data center demands. The related folder is named "flat". Delayed generator retirements sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different levels of natural gas and nuclear generator retirement delays. The resulting scenario names are: (1) postponing 100% nuclear retirements; (2) postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements; (3) postponing only 50% natural gas retirements; (4) postponing 100% nuclear and 50% natural gas retirements; (5) postponing 100% nuclear and 75% natural gas retirements; and (6) postponing 100% nuclear and 100% natural gas retirements. The related folder names are: no_gen_retire_0_gas, no_gen_retire_25_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas_only, no_gen_retire_75_gas, and no_gen_retire_100_gas. Demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different participation and compensation levels of data center demand response. The resulting scenario names are: (1) 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (2) 5% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; (3) 5% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation; (4) 15% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (5) 15% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; and (6) 15% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation. The related folder names are: dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5, and dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_15. Combination of delayed generator retirements and demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: The impact of combining postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements with 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation is simulated. The related folder is named "dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5_nuc_100_gas_25". Please refer to the README file for a detailed description of the dataset including individual files and references.

Artificial Intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pragmatic Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Inverse Estimation of Structural Dynamics Parameters given Material Property Uncertainties and Limited Sensor Data

In this report we demonstrate some relatively simple and inexpensive methods to effectively account for various sources of epistemic lack-of-knowledge type uncertainty in inverse problems. The demonstration problem involves inverse estimation of six parameters of a bolted joint that attaches a kettlebell shaped object to a thick plate. The parameters are efficiently inverted in a modal-based model calibration using gradient-based optimization. Two material properties of the kettlebell are treated as uncertain to within given epistemic uncertainty bounds. We apply and test interval and sparse-sample probabilistic approaches to account for uncertainty in the estimated parameters (and various scalar functionals of the parameters as generic quantities of interest, QOIs) due to uncertainties in the material properties. We also investigate the error effects of limited numbers of vibration sensors (accelerometers) on the kettlebell and plate, and therefore abbreviated excitation/response information in the parameter inversions. We propose and demonstrate a Leave-K-Sensors-Out “cross-prediction” UQ approach to estimate related uncertainties on the parameters and QOI functionals. We indicate how uncertainties from material properties and limited sensors are treated in a combined manner. The economical combined UQ approach involves just three to five samples (i.e. three to five inverse simulations), with no added complication or error/uncertainty from use of surrogate models for affordability. Finally, we describe a related economical UQ approach for handling potential parameter solution non-uniqueness and numerical optimization related precision uncertainties in the estimated parameter values. Indicated further research is identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

HYSPLIT/MACCS Atmospheric Dispersion Model Technical Documentation and Benchmark Analysis

The nuclear accident consequence analysis code MACCS has traditionally modeled dispersion during downwind transport using a Gaussian plume segment model. MACCS is designed to estimate consequence measures such as air concentrations and ground depositions, radiological doses, and health and economic impacts on a statistical basis over the course of a year to produce annualaveraged output measures. The objective of this work is to supplement the Gaussian atmospheric transport and diffusion (ATD) model currently in MACCS with a new option using the HYSPLIT model. HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling has been implemented, with HYSPLIT as an alternative ATD option. The subsequent calculations in MACCS use the HYSPLIT-generated air concentration, and ground deposition values to calculate the same range of output quantities (dose, health effects, risks, etc.) that can be generated when using the MACCS Gaussian ATD model. Based on the results from the verification test cases, the implementation of the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling is confirmed. This report contains technical details of the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling and presents a benchmark analysis using the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling system. The benchmark analysis, which involves running specific scenarios and sensitivity studies designed to examine how the results generated by the traditional MACCS Gaussian plume segment model compare to the new, higher fidelity HYSPLIT/MACCS modeling option, demonstrates the modeling results that can be obtained by using this new option. The comparisons provided herein can also help decision-makers evaluate the potential benefit of using results based on higher fidelity modeling with the additional computational burden needed to perform the calculations. Three sensitivity studies to investigate the potential impact of alternative modeling options, regarding 1) input meteorological data set, 2) method to estimate stability class, and 3) plume dispersion model for larger distances, on consequence results were also performed. The results of these analyses are provided and discussed in this report.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗