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At least 991 records · Page 55

Leonid Storm Flux Analysis From One Leonid MAC Video AL50R

A detailed meteor flux analysis is presented of a seventeen-minute portion of one videotape, collected on November 18, 1999, during the Leonid Multi-instrument Aircraft Campaign. The data was recorded around the peak of the Leonid meteor storm using an intensified CCD camera pointed towards the low southern horizon. Positions of meteors on the sky were measured. These measured meteor distributions were compared to a Monte Carlo simulation, which is a new approach to parameter estimation for mass ratio and flux. Comparison of simulated flux versus observed flux levels, seen between 1:50:00 and 2:06:41 UT, indicate a magnitude population index of r = 1.8 +/- 0.1 and mass ratio of s = 1.64 +/- 0.06. The average spatial density of the material contributing to the Leonid storm peak is measured at 0.82 +/- 0.19 particles per square kilometer per hour for particles of at least absolute visual magnitude +6.5. Clustering analysis of the arrival times of Leonids impacting the earth's atmosphere over the total observing interval shows no enhancement or clumping down to time scales of the video frame rate. This indicates a uniformly random temporal distribution of particles in the stream encountered during the 1999 epoch. Based on the observed distribution of meteors on the sky and the model distribution, recommendations am made for the optimal pointing directions for video camera meteor counts during future ground and airborne missions.

Gural, Peter S.↗

Isolating Curvature Effects in Computing Wall-Bounded Turbulent Flows

The flow over the zero-pressure-gradient So-Mellor convex curved wall is simulated using the Navier-Stokes equations. An inviscid effective outer wall shape, undocumented in the experiment, is obtained by using an adjoint optimization method with the desired pressure distribution on the inner wall as the cost function. Using this wall shape with a Navier-Stokes method, the abilities of various turbulence models to simulate the effects of curvature without the complicating factor of streamwise pressure gradient can be evaluated. The one-equation Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model overpredicts eddy viscosity, and its boundary layer profiles are too full. A curvature-corrected version of this model improves results, which are sensitive to the choice of a particular constant. An explicit algebraic stress model does a reasonable job predicting this flow field. However, results can be slightly improved by modifying the assumption on anisotropy equilibrium in the model's derivation. The resulting curvature-corrected explicit algebraic stress model possesses no heuristic functions or additional constants. It lowers slightly the computed skin friction coefficient and the turbulent stress levels for this case (in better agreement with experiment), but the effect on computed velocity profiles is very small.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗

Providing Effective Access to Shared Resources: A COIN Approach

Managers of systems of shared resources typically have many separate goals. Examples are efficient utilization of the resources among its users and ensuring no user's satisfaction in the system falls below a preset minimal level. Since such goals will usually conflict with one another, either implicitly or explicitly the manager must determine the relative importance of the goals, encapsulating that into an overall utility function rating the possible behaviors of the entire system. Here we demonstrate a distributed, robust, and adaptive way to optimize that overall function. Our approach is to interpose adaptive agents between each user and the system, where each such agent is working to maximize its own private utility function. In turn, each such agent's function should be both relatively easy for the agent to learn to optimize, and 'aligned' with the overall utility function of the system manager - an overall function that is based on but in general different from the satisfaction functions of the individual users. To ensure this we enhance the COllective INtelligence (COIN) framework to incorporate user satisfaction functions in the overall utility function of the system manager and accordingly in the associated private utility functions assigned to the users agents. We present experimental evaluations of different COIN-based private utility functions and demonstrate that those COIN-based functions outperform some natural alternatives.

Airiau, Stephane↗

Providing Effective Access to Shared Resources: A COIN Approach

Managers of systems of shared resources typically have many separate goals. Examples are efficient utilization of the resources among its users and ensuring no user s satisfaction in the system falls below a preset minimal level. Since such goals will usually conflict with one another, either implicitly or explicitly the manager must determine the relative importance of the goals, encapsulating that into an overall utility function rating the possible behaviors of the entire system. Here we demonstrate a distributed, robust, and adaptive way to optimize that overall function. Our approach is to interpose adaptive agents between each user and the system, where each such agent is working to maximize its own private utility function. In turn, each such agent's function should be both relatively easy for the agent to learn to optimize, and "aligned" with the overall utility function of the system manager - an overall function that is based on but in general different from the satisfaction functions of the individual users. To ensure this we enhance the Collective INtelligence (COIN) framework to incorporate user satisfaction functions in the overall utility function of the system manager and accordingly in the associated private utility functions assigned to the users agents. We present experimental evaluations of different COIN-based private utility functions and demonstrate that those COIN-based functions outperform some natural alternatives.

Airiau, Stephane↗

Effects of Tropospheric Spatio-Temporal Correlated Noise on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

The standard VLBI analysis models the distribution of measurement noise as Gaussian. Because the price of recording bits is steadily decreasing, thermal errors will soon no longer dominate. As a result, it is expected that troposphere and instrumentation/clock errors will increasingly become more dominant. Given that both of these errors have correlated spectra, properly modeling the error distributions will become increasingly relevant for optimal analysis. We discuss the advantages of modeling the correlations between tropospheric delays using a Kolmogorov spectrum and the frozen flow assumption pioneered by Treuhaft and Lanyi. We then apply these correlated noise spectra to the weighting of VLBI data analysis for two case studies: X/Ka-band global astrometry and Earth orientation. In both cases we see improved results when the analyses are weighted with correlated noise models vs. the standard uncorrelated models. The X/Ka astrometric scatter improved by approx.10% and the systematic Delta delta vs. delta slope decreased by approx. 50%. The TEMPO Earth orientation results improved by 17% in baseline transverse and 27% in baseline vertical.

instrumentation errors↗

Effects of Tropospheric Spatio-Temporal Correlated Noise on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

The standard VLBI analysis models measurement noise as purely thermal errors modeled according to uncorrelated Gaussian distributions. As the price of recording bits steadily decreases, thermal errors will soon no longer dominate. It is therefore expected that troposphere and instrumentation/clock errors will increasingly become more dominant. Given that both of these errors have correlated spectra, properly modeling the error distributions will become more relevant for optimal analysis. This paper will discuss the advantages of including the correlations between tropospheric delays using a Kolmogorov spectrum and the frozen ow model pioneered by Treuhaft and Lanyi. We will show examples of applying these correlated noise spectra to the weighting of VLBI data analysis.

thermal noise↗

Occultation Modeling for Radiation Obstruction Effects on Spacecraft Systems

A geometric occultation model has been developed to determine line-of-sight obstruction of radiation sources expected for different NASA space exploration mission designs. Example applications includes fidelity improvements for surface lighting conditions, radiation pressure, thermal and power subsystem modeling. The model makes use of geometric two dimensional shape primitives to most effectively model space vehicles. A set of these primitives is used to represent three dimensional obstructing objects as a two dimensional outline from the perspective of an observing point of interest. Radiation sources, such as the Sun or a Moon's albedo is represented as a collection of points, each of which is assigned a flux value to represent a section of the radiation source. Planetary bodies, such as a Martian moon, is represented as a collection of triangular facets which are distributed in spherical height fields for optimization. These design aspects and the overall model architecture will be presented. Specific uses to be presented includes a study of the lighting condition on Phobos for a possible future surface mission, and computing the incident flux on a spacecraft's solar panels and radiators from direct and reflected solar radiation subject to self-shadowing or shadowing by third bodies.

de Carufel, Guy↗

Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

design↗

Detection of Chlorophyll and Leaf Area Index Dynamics from Sub-weekly Hyperspectral Imagery

Temporally rich hyperspectral time-series can provide unique time critical information on within-field variations in vegetation health and distribution needed by farmers to effectively optimize crop production. In this study, a dense time series of images were acquired from the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Hyperion sensor over an intensive farming area in the center of Saudi Arabia. After correction for atmospheric effects, optimal links between carefully selected explanatory hyperspectral vegetation indices and target vegetation characteristics were established using a machine learning approach. A dataset of in-situ measured leaf chlorophyll (Chll) and leaf area index (LAI), collected during five intensive field campaigns over a variety of crop types, were used to train the rule-based predictive models. The ability of the narrow-band hyperspectral reflectance information to robustly assess and discriminate dynamics in foliar biochemistry and biomass through empirical relationships were investigated. This also involved evaluations of the generalization and reproducibility of the predictions beyond the conditions of the training dataset. The very high temporal resolution of the satellite retrievals constituted a specifically intriguing feature that facilitated detection of total canopy Chl and LAI dynamics down to sub-weekly intervals. The study advocates the benefits associated with the availability of optimum spectral and temporal resolution spaceborne observations for agricultural management purposes.

Houborg, Rasmus↗

Investigation of the Potential for Lidar & Polarimeter Combined Aerosol Retrievals Using Various Instrument Combinations

As a scientific community, we are motivated to achieve better observational capabilities for aerosols, to reduce uncertainties about aerosol’s role in climate. Encouraged by the National Academies Decadal Survey, many are looking to the synergy of lidar and polarimeter as a means of achieving improved measurements. Polarimetric observations of total-column radiances have excellent sensitivity to aerosol size distribution and absorption properties. Active lidar measurements have fewer wavelengths and view angles and therefore more limited sensitivity to aerosol microphysical properties such as complex refractive index. Yet the advantage of vertically resolved profiles is game-changing, especially given that models contain significant uncertainty about the vertical distribution of aerosol and that polarimeter and other passive retrievals must make assumptions about vertical distribution which can impact performance. To optimize the synergy, a joint polarimeter + lidar mission requires a joint retrieval. However, the exact instruments that will be launched on a future satellite are unknown, and the capabilities of polarimeters and lidars cover a large range. In this study, we perform information content analysis for a range of nominal instrument combinations. The methodology is ideal for assessing the impact of measurements and a priori information (assumptions and constraints) with respect to the desired retrieval products, and for comparing measurement systems. It has advantages that make it useful in advance of or in parallel with retrieval development, such as producing quantitatively useful comparisons even for retrieval scenarios that are significantly underdetermined and therefore impossible to retrieve without significant assumptions, and it is not impacted by retrieval-specific sources of error such as incomplete or incorrect convergence which can complicate the interpretation of a retrieval performance analysis. Here, we will derive the expected uncertainty in retrieved aerosol concentration, effective radius, fine mode fraction and single scattering albedo, for a combination of a polarimeter with various grades of lidar, from an elastic backscatter lidar, similar to the pathfinder CALIOP on the CALIPSO satellite, to a multi-wavelength high spectral resolution lidar.

Sharon P Burton↗

Adaptive Aerostructures for Revolutionary Civil Supersonic Transportation

To enable commercially viable civil supersonic transport (SST) aircraft, innovative solutions must be developed to meet noise and efficiency requirements for overland flight. This research effort consists of a multidisciplinary team of academic and industrial experts exploring for the first time the potential of small real-time geometric outer mold line (OML) reconfigurations to minimize sonic boom signatures and aircraft drag in response to changing ambient conditions, thereby enabling noise-compliant overland supersonic flight. The team utilizes recent advances in supersonic computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods, new noise prediction tools, and new design approaches to consider embedded highly energy-dense shape memory alloy (SMA) actuators for local shape modifications to an SST aircraft leading to optimal low boom signature and low drag in different environments. This university-led program will provide strategic leadership toward technology convergence that advances NASA's Aerospace Research Mission Directorate's (ARMD) research objectives with regard to Thrust 2: “Innovation in Commercial Supersonic Aircraft” by exploring for the first time enabling low-boom operation across a range of flight conditions via structural adaptivity, and will promote education of the next generation of engineers. The overall research strategy is to pursue three critical areas: the design of configurations for reducing boom, SMA material development and modeling, and technology feasibility demonstration in a relevant environment. Initially, the team will identify potential applications where structure or geometry adaptivity provides a benefit in noise or drag across the entire flight envelope. For selected applications/structural locations, required OML geometry changes will be determined based on analysis of sonic boom ground signature and drag reduction using new design tools, trade studies, and atmospheric sensing techniques. Designs will be developed and evaluated against requirements on loading, stroke length, and operational temperature. New alloy formulations will be developed tailored for both autonomous and controlled actuation modes. As the SMA material development matures, integrated system-level factors will be investigated. Optimized designs for small-scale distributed adaptivity applications of maximum benefit will then be matured and tested, moving toward demonstration of the innovative technology approaches at a TRL 4-5 and showing that sonic booms can be reduced by reconfiguration on demand.

Koushik Datta↗

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optimization of the number and locations of the calibration stations needed to monitor soil moisture using distributed temperature sensing systems: A proof-of-concept study

The single-probe heat-pulse (SPHP) technique combined with the Fiber-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) technology can offer novel high-resolution measurements of soil moisture (θ) over spatial scales ranging from several centimeters to several kilometers. However, the key limitation of this method is in obtaining the calibration relationship between θ and soil thermal conductivity (λ) across a specific field. In a previous study, a new methodology using a Gaussian processes model was presented to account for the spatial variability in the λ-θ relationship. The model aggregated θ measurements from soil moisture sensors scattered over the SPHP transect with the corresponding DTS λ measurements at their locations. In this study, a novel methodology is tested to optimize the number and locations of soil moisture sensors required to account for the spatial variability of the λ - θ relationship to achieve higher accuracy from the SPHP technique. The proposed methodology utilizes hierarchical clustering to analyze the information contained in the spatial structure of the SPHP measurements as the soil dries from a nearly-saturated condition. The proposed methodology was tested using data from a field in Oklahoma. Monte-Carlo simulation was performed to validate the performance of the proposed methodology. The predictions obtained from the proposed methodology resulted in θ measurements accuracy comparable to those obtained from the 10% best Monte-Carlo iterations of randomly assigned soil moisture locations. Further, this study demonstrates that the proposed methodology is more efficient than the traditional practice of randomly spreading calibration soil moisture sensors along the SPHP transect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trajectory Shaper: A Solution for Disrupted Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control

Cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) can effectively reduce energy consumption, alleviate traffic congestion, and enhance safety. However, communication-related constraints and uncooperative vehicle users can disrupt CACC during real-world operations, significantly undermining the putative benefits of CACC. To alleviate the negative impacts of disrupted CACC, this study develops the trajectory shaper (TS) methods as backup solutions for two scenarios: (i) communication between vehicles is infeasible, and vehicles execute adaptive cruise control (ACC) using local sensor measurements; (ii) follower vehicles reject forming a cooperative platoon and execute their local distributed controllers using the information attained via communication. When communication is infeasible, a distributed TS is devised on each vehicle to modify the sensor measurements, enabling safe and efficient ACC operations. When communication is available but uncooperative agents are involved, the lead vehicle of the platoon executes a centralized TS to modify the information shared with uncooperative agents, achieving optimal platoon-level performance. The centralized and distributed TSs are implemented based on the model predictive control algorithms to yield optimal modifications on input information. Robustness is also factored to tackle model uncertainties during TS operations to ensure safety and efficiency. Numerical experiments validate the control performance of the proposed TSs.

Zhou, Anye [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301455579)↗

Multiscale simulation of integrated energy system and electricity market interactions

Accelerating the deep decarbonization of the world's electric grids requires the coordination of complex energy systems and infrastructures across timescales from seconds to decades. Here, we present a new multiscale simulation framework that integrates process- and grid-centric modeling paradigms to better design, operate, and control integrated energy systems (IESs), which combine multiple technologies, in wholesale energy markets. Traditionally, IESs are analyzed with a process-centric paradigm such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) or annualized net revenue, ignoring important interactions with electricity markets. This framework explicitly models the complex interactions between an IES's bidding, scheduling, and control decisions and the energy market's clearing and settlement processes, while incorporating operational uncertainties. Through two case studies, we show the importance of understanding and quantifying complex resource-grid interactions. In case study 1, we demonstrate that optimized bidding from one resource shifts the profit distribution for all energy systems in the market. This result suggests new and more flexible IES technologies can disrupt the economics of all market participants, possibly leading to accelerated retirements of less flexible resources. Interestingly, the optimized bidding has little impact on grid-level aggregate statistics, such as total generation costs and renewable penetration rate. While aggregate modeling strategies may remain valid under some IES adoption scenarios for analysis focused on regional outcomes, direct comparisons of IES technologies at specific locations without considering these interactions may lead to misleading or incorrect conclusions. In case study 2, we consider the design and flexible operation of IESs that hybridize conventional generators with energy storage. Through a sensitivity analysis, we find that as the size of the storage system increases, the total number of start-ups for coal- and natural gas-based IESs reduced by 25% and 33.6%, and the total thermal generator ramping (i.e., mileage) reduced by 86.5% and 62.5%, respectively. This shows the primary benefit of storage may not be reduced operational costs (which do not change significantly) but fewer start-ups and less ramping, which may greatly simplify the design, operation, and control of carbon capture systems. The new modeling and optimization capabilities from this work enable the coupling of rigorous, dynamic process models with grid-level production cost models to quantitatively identify the nuanced interdependencies across these vast timescales that must be addressed to realize clean, safe, and secure energy production. Moreover, the proposed general multiscale simulation framework is applicable to all IES technologies and can be easily extended to consider other energy carriers (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia) and energy infrastructures (e.g., natural gas pipelines).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Adaptive hyperparameter updating for training restricted Boltzmann machines on quantum annealers

Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) have been proposed for developing neural networks for a variety of unsupervised machine learning applications such as image recognition, drug discovery, and materials design. The Boltzmann probability distribution is used as a model to identify network parameters by optimizing the likelihood of predicting an output given hidden states trained on available data. Training such networks often requires sampling over a large probability space that must be approximated during gradient based optimization. Quantum annealing has been proposed as a means to search this space more efficiently which has been experimentally investigated on D-Wave hardware. D-Wave implementation requires selection of an effective inverse temperature or hyperparameter (β) within the Boltzmann distribution which can strongly influence optimization. Here, we show how this parameter can be estimated as a hyperparameter applied to D-Wave hardware during neural network training by maximizing the likelihood or minimizing the Shannon entropy. We find both methods improve training RBMs based upon D-Wave hardware experimental validation on an image recognition problem. Neural network image reconstruction errors are evaluated using Bayesian uncertainty analysis which illustrate more than an order magnitude lower image reconstruction error using the maximum likelihood over manually optimizing the hyperparameter. The maximum likelihood method is also shown to out-perform minimizing the Shannon entropy for image reconstruction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A second-order distributed memory parallel fast sweeping method for the Eikonal equation

The Eikonal equation is used to calculate wave propagation and distance fields, and due to its complexity requires numerical treatment for its solution. In this work, we present a second-order distributed memory parallel fast sweeping method. The second-order solution switches on a two-point stencil when two upwind points are available, and reverts to first-order otherwise. In all examples, the second-order method improves the solution over the first-order, allowing for significant savings in memory while achieving the same accuracy. Parallelization over distributed memory saw good weak scaling with optimal convergence. The computational time for second-order was approximately 2.5 times slower than first-order, where the largest amount of mesh points ran on 144 cores (512 GB) was ≈20 billion. The savings in memory from the second-order method combined with the distributed memory algorithm result in the ability to solve problems much larger than are possible with the serial first-order method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗