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The Airspace Concepts Evaluation System Architecture and System Plant

The Airspace Concepts Evaluation System is a simulation of the National Airspace System. It includes models of flights, airports, airspaces, air traffic controls, traffic flow managements, and airline operation centers operating throughout the United States. It is used to predict system delays in response to future capacity and demand scenarios and perform benefits assessments of current and future airspace technologies and operational concepts. Facilitation of these studies requires that the simulation architecture supports plug and play of different air traffic control, traffic flow management, and airline operation center models and multi-fidelity modeling of flights, airports, and airspaces. The simulation is divided into two parts that are named, borrowing from classical control theory terminology, control and plant. The control consists of air traffic control, traffic flow management, and airline operation center models, and the plant consists of flight, airport, and airspace models. The plant can run open loop, in the absence of the control. However, undesired affects, such as conflicts and over congestions in the airspaces and airports, can occur. Different controls are applied, "plug and played", to the plant. A particular control is evaluated by analyzing how well it managed conflicts and congestions. Furthermore, the terminal area plants consist of models of airports and terminal airspaces. Each model consists of a set of nodes and links which are connected by the user to form a network. Nodes model runways, fixes, taxi intersections, gates, and/or other points of interest, and links model taxiways, departure paths, and arrival paths. Metering, flow distribution, and sequencing functions can be applied at nodes. Different fidelity model of how a flight transits are can be used by links. The fidelity of the model can be adjusted by the user by either changing the complexity of the node/link network-or the way that the link models how the flights transit from one node to the other.

Windhorst, Robert↗

FACET: Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool

FACET (Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool) is an Air Traffic Management research tool being developed at the NASA Ames Research Center. This paper describes the design, architecture and functionalities of FACET. The purpose of FACET is to provide E simulation environment for exploration, development and evaluation of advanced ATM concepts. Examples of these concepts include new ATM paradigms such as Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management, airspace redesign and new Decision Support Tools (DSTs) for controllers working within the operational procedures of the existing air traffic control system. FACET is currently capable of modeling system-wide en route airspace operations over the contiguous United States. Airspace models (e.g., Center/sector boundaries, airways, locations of navigation aids and airports) are available from databases. A core capability of FACET is the modeling of aircraft trajectories. Using round-earth kinematic equations, aircraft can be flown along flight plan routes or great circle routes as they climb, cruise and descend according to their individual aircraft-type performance models. Performance parameters (e.g., climb/descent rates and speeds, cruise speeds) are obtained from data table lookups. Heading, airspeed and altitude-rate dynamics are also modeled. Additional functionalities will be added as necessary for specific applications. FACET software is written in Java and C programming languages. It is platform-independent, and can be run on a variety of computers. FACET has been designed with a modular software architecture to enable rapid integration of research prototype implementations of new ATM concepts. There are several advanced ATM concepts that are currently being implemented in FACET airborne separation assurance, dynamic density predictions, airspace redesign (re-sectorization), benefits of a controller DST for direct-routing, and the integration of commercial space transportation system operations into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS).

Bilmoria, Karl D.↗

Short-Term Forecasting Across a Network for the Autonomous Wind Farm: Preprint

In an autonomous wind farm, turbines will use information from nearby turbines to achieve wind farm-level objectives such as optimizing the overall performance of a wind farm, ensuring resiliency when other sensors fail, and adapting to changing local conditions. In this paper, the wind farm can be modeled as a network within which turbines (nodes) share information across designated communication channels, with a focus on turbines at the outside of the wind farm capturing local effects and sharing that information with downstream turbines. Understanding of varied inflow conditions can be especially important in complex terrain. This information can be used to monitor turbines, self-organize turbines into groups, and predict the power performance of a wind farm. In particular, this paper describes an autonomous wind farm that incorporates information from local sensors in real time to predict wind speed and wind direction at each turbine over a short-term horizon. Results indicate that the estimate of wind direction can be used to improve the knowledge of the wind speed and direction over the persistence method on a 10- 15-minute time horizon. These short-term forecasts can also be used to facilitate advanced control methods such as feedforward control within a wind farm.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Short-Term Forecasting Across a Network for the Autonomous Wind Farm

In an autonomous wind farm, turbines will use information from nearby turbines to achieve wind farm-level objectives such as optimizing the overall performance of a wind farm, ensuring resiliency when other sensors fail, and adapting to changing local conditions. In this paper, the wind farm can be modeled as a network within which turbines (nodes) share information across designated communication channels, with a focus on turbines at the outside of the wind farm capturing local effects and sharing that information with downstream turbines. Understanding of varied inflow conditions can be especially important in complex terrain. This information can be used to monitor turbines, self-organize turbines into groups, and predict the power performance of a wind farm. In particular, this paper describes an autonomous wind farm that incorporates information from local sensors in real time to predict wind speed and wind direction at each turbine over a short-term horizon. Results indicate that the estimate of wind direction can be used to improve the knowledge of the wind speed and direction over the persistence method on a 10-15-minute time horizon. These short-term forecasts can also be used to facilitate advanced control methods such as feedforward control within a wind farm.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Fabric controls on fracture surface roughness of an architected rock material

Fluid flow through fractures is intimately linked to the fracture surfaces that define the void geometry through which fluids flow. Thus, an understanding of what controls fracture surface roughness is essential to the development of models for predicting fluid transport through fractured rock. The difficulty in predicting surface roughness arises from the complexity of rock which is inherently heterogeneous and nonuniform in composition, fabric, and structural components, even when samples are acquired from the same rock mass. Here, a benchmarked-simulation approach motivated from geo-architected 3D printed synthetic gypsum rocks is used to provide insight into the competing contributions from fabric and layering on fracture roughness formation. Simulation results from a discrete element model (Particle Flow Code, Itasca Consulting Group, Inc.) clearly indicate that the relative orientation between mineral layers and in-layer mineral fabric, and the variability in mineral bonding strengths determine whether anisotropic corrugated surfaces or isotropic surfaces are formed. Weak mineral layers oriented perpendicular to the applied load resulted in strong roughness anisotropy. Peak failure loads were found to vary up to 30% depending on the strength of the mineral fabric at the location of fracture initiation, which provides insight into the observed high variability in strength values of natural rock. The uniqueness of induced fracture roughness and peak failure load is intimately linked to layering, mineral fabric, and their distribution in the rock. These findings have important implications for any architected material fabricated through serial printing of layers with local compositional heterogeneity.

3D printed rock↗

Plasma-Surface Interaction Studies on DIII-D and Their Implications for Next-Step Fusion Experiments

Unique diagnostic and access features of the DIII-D tokamak, including a sample exposure system, have been used to carry out controlled and well-diagnosed plasma-surface interactions (PSI) experiments. An important contribution of the experiments has been the ability to link a given plasma exposure condition to a measured response of the plasma-facing surface and to thus understand the interaction. This has allowed for benchmarking certain aspects of erosion models, particularly near-surface particle transport. DIII-D has empirically quantified some of the PSI effects that will limit the operation availability and lifetime of future fusion devices, namely, net erosion limiting divertor plate lifetime and hydrogenic fuel retention in deposit layers. Cold divertor plasmas obtained with detachment can suppress net carbon divertor erosion, but many low-temperature divertor PSI phenomena remain poorly understood: nondivertor erosion sources, long-range particle transport, global erosion/deposition patterns, the enhancement of carbon erosion with neon impurity seeding, the sputtered carbon velocity distribution, and the apparent suppression of carbon chemical erosion in detachment. Long-term particle and energy fluences have reduced the chemical erosion yield of lower-divertor tiles. Finally, plasma-caused modification of a material’s erosion properties, including material mixing, will occur quickly and be important in long-pulse fusion devices, making prediction of PSI difficult in future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Finding Uncertainties that Cause the Age Dependence of Dose Limits to Be Immature

Space radiation permissible exposure limits (PEL) are intended to set acceptable levels of cancer risks, and avoid any clinical significant non-cancer effects. The 1989 recommendation of the National Council of Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) recommended a strong age dependence of dose limits that departed drastically from the then mature 1970 dose limits recommendations from the National Academy of Science, which were independent of age. In 2000, the NCRP recommended revised limits that showed a similar trend of risk with age to the 1989 report. In this model, the cancer risk per Sv varies by more than 2-fold for ages between 30- and 50-yr. Therefore for galactic cosmic rays exposure, astronaut age has a larger influence on risk then radiation shielding mass or material composition, vehicle propulsion method, or position in the solar cycle. For considering the control of mission costs and resources, the possibility of using astronaut age as a trade variable in mission design could be considered. However, the uncertainties in describing the age dependence on risk have not been fully explored. We discuss biological factors that influence the age dependence of radiation risks, including susceptibility, expression and latency, and radiation quality. These factors depend not only on the individual s age, but also their genetic sensitivity and interaction with other environmental factors. Epidemiological data is limited in describing the age dependence on risk. The 2005, BEIR VII report recommends an age dependence for cancer risk attributable solely to the life-table disagreeing strongly with the NCRP model. However, BEIR VII also noted the limited power of human data for concomitantly describing both age and age after exposure dependences of cancer risks. Many experimental studies have shown that high LET radiation (e.g., high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei and neutrons) display reduced latency compared to low LET radiation, suggesting distinct biological factors are important. We discuss potential molecular mechanisms that would influence the age dependence of radiation risks. A probability distribution function for the uncertainties in age-dependence of risk models is described and predictions for Mars missions discussed. Our report suggests that theoretical considerations based on new experimental studies are needed to ensure the correct age dependence in space radiation risk models and the resulting Astronaut PEL.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗

Suppression of diffraction in deep-inelastic scattering on nuclei and dynamical mechanism of leading twist nuclear shadowing

Abstract Using the leading twist approach (LTA) to nuclear shadowing, we calculate the ratios of diffractive and usual parton distributions for a heavy nucleus (Pb) and the proton,$$ {R}_{A/p}=\left({f}_{i/A}^{D(3)}/{f}_{i/A}\right)/\left({f}_{i/p}^{D(3)}/{f}_{i/p}\right) $$ R A / p = f i / A D 3 / f i / A / f i / p D 3 / f i / p , for coherent and summed (coherent plus quasi-elastic) nuclear deep-inelastic scattering. We find thatR A/p ≈ 0.5 − 1 for quarks as well as for the ratio of the diffractive and total cross sections$$ {\left[\left({d\sigma}_{\textrm{diff}}/{d M}_X^2\right)/{\sigma}_{\textrm{tot}}\right]}_{eA}/{\left[\left({d\sigma}_{\textrm{diff}}/{d M}_X^2\right)/{\sigma}_{\textrm{tot}}\right]}_{ep} $$ dσ diff / dM X 2 / σ tot eA / dσ diff / dM X 2 / σ tot ep andR A/p ≈ 0.5 − 1.3 for gluons in a broad range ofx, including the kinematics of the Electron-Ion Collider, which reaffirms the difference from the nuclear enhancement ofR A/p predicted in the gluon saturation framework. We demonstrate that the magnitude ofR A/p is controlled by the cross section of the interaction of hadronic fluctuations of the virtual photon with target nucleons, which explains an enhancement ofR A/p in the color dipole model and its suppression in LTA. We argue that the black disk limit corresponds toR A/p = 1 and$$ {R}_{A/p}^{\textrm{coh}} $$ R A / p coh = 0.86 for the summed and coherent scattering, respectively. Relying on an intuitive definition of the saturation scale, we show that the ratio of the saturation scales of a heavy nucleus and proton$$ {Q}_{sA}^2(b)/{Q}_{sp}^2(b)\approx 1 $$ Q sA 2 b / Q sp 2 b ≈ 1 at small impact parametersbdue to the strong leading twist nuclear shadowing and diluteness of the nuclear density.

Physics↗

Model-Based Detection of Coordinated Attacks (DCA) in Distribution Systems

The fast-paced growth in digitization of smart grid components enhances system observability and remote-control capabilities through efficient communication. However, enhanced connectivity results in heightened system vulnerability towards cybersecurity risks in the cyber-physical power system. Coordinated cyber-attacks (CCA), when undetected, lead to system-wide impact in terms of large disturbances or widespread outages. Detecting CCA in the cyber layer is critical to thwart cyber-attacks in real-time before the attack impacts the physical system. The challenge of locating CCA stems from the complex grid dynamics, making it difficult to distinguish between normal operational variations and cyber-attack impact. CCA often employs multiple attack vectors targeting geographically distributed components, further complicating CCA identification. Existing research in intrusion detection is primarily focused on the transmission network and limited to detecting individual attacks. In this paper, a novel proactive DCA strategy is proposed for early detection of CCA by establishing correlations among distinct attack events through model-based reinforcement learning that utilizes abductive reasoning to conclude the attacker goal. The solution includes understanding the system model, learning the system dynamics, and correlating individual cyber-attacks to extract the attacker’s objective. The developed learning algorithm identifies the most probable attack path to reach the attacker’s objective by predicting the next attack steps. A DNP3-based cyber-physical co-simulation testbed is developed to test the proposed algorithm using the IEEE 13-node test feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Numerical study of groundwater flow cycling controlled by seawater/freshwater interaction in Woodville Karst Plain

Seawater intrusion due to sea level rise and climate change could significantly contaminate coastal groundwater resources, particularly in Florida, the flat low-land state in the United States. Based on the field investigation and hydrological measurements, a three-dimensional SEAWAT model is developed to evaluate the groundwater flow cycling and seawater intrusion to freshwater system in the Woodville Karst Plain (WKP), a typical karst groundwater system in the Floridan aquifer. The karst conduit network in the aquifer acts as fast flow pathway for groundwater flow and solute transport, so seawater could deeply intrude into the aquifer. Wakulla Spring, an inland spring 17 km from the coast and a coastal submarine spring, Spring Creek Spring Complex are connected through the conduit network. The flow direction between the two springs switches under various rainfall conditions in this region, thus the discharges at two karst springs are used to estimate the location of seawater/freshwater mixing interface. The SEAWAT modeling results indicate that the mixing interface, defined as 2 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit), intrudes 3 to 5 km through the subsurface karst conduit during the dry season and severely contaminates nearly 1 km width of groundwater around the conduit. The salinity distribution and the distance of seawater intrusion through the conduit system are very sensitive to precipitation variation and the sea level boundary condition. Furthermore, predictions are made for seawater intrusion to the aquifer under various sea level rise, precipitation scenarios and water pumping. The results show that the seawater intrusion could reach and contaminate inland freshwater systems if sea level rises 1.0 m or during a long-term no-precipitation season. Finally, this study provides insights for modeling and predicting the vulnerability of a coastal karst aquifer through the simulation of variable-density flow.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Higher harmonic control analysis for vibration reduction of helicopter rotor systems

An advanced higher harmonic control (HHC) analysis has been developed and applied to investigate its effect on vibration reduction levels, blade and control system fatigue loads, rotor performance, and power requirements of servo-actuators. The analysis is based on a finite element method in space and time. A nonlinear time domain unsteady aerodynamic model, based on the indicial response formulation, is used to calculate the airloads. The rotor induced inflow is computed using a free wake model. The vehicle trim controls and blade steady responses are solved as one coupled solution using a modified Newton method. A linear frequency-domain quasi-steady transfer matrix is used to relate the harmonics of the vibratory hub loads to the harmonics of the HHC inputs. Optimal HHC is calculated from the minimization of the vibratory hub loads expressed in term of a quadratic performance index. Predicted vibratory hub shears are correlated with wind tunnel data. The fixed-gain HHC controller suppresses completely the vibratory hub shears for most of steady or quasi-steady flight conditions. HHC actuator amplitudes and power increase significantly at high forward speeds (above 100 knots). Due to the applied HHC, the blade torsional stresses and control loads are increased substantially. For flight conditions where the blades are stalled considerably, the HHC input-output model is quite nonlinear. For such cases, the adaptive-gain controller is effective in suppressing vibratory hub loads, even though HHC may actually increase stall areas on the rotor disk. The fixed-gain controller performs poorly for such flight conditions. Comparison study of different rotor systems indicates that a soft-inplane hingeless rotor requires less actuator power at high speeds (above 130 knots) than an articulated rotor, and a stiff-inplane hingeless rotor generally requires more actuator power than an articulated or a soft-inplane hingeless rotor. Parametric studies for a hingeless rotor operating in a transition flight regime and for an articulated rotor operating at the level-flight boundary (high speed and high thrust conditions) indicate that blade parameters including flap, lag, torsion stiffness distributions, linear pretwist, chordwise offset of center-of-mass from elastic axis and chordwise offset of elastic axis from aerodynamic center can be selected to minimize the actuator power requirements for HHC.

Nguyen, Khanh Q.↗

Integrated modeling of RF-induced tungsten erosion at ICRH antenna structures in the WEST tokamak *

This paper introduces STRIPE (Simulated Transport of RF Impurity Production and Emission), an advanced modeling framework developed to analyze material erosion and the global transport of eroded impurities originating from radio-frequency (RF) antenna structures in magnetic confinement fusion devices. STRIPE integrates multiple physics modules: SolEdge3x for scrape-off-layer plasma profiles, COMSOL for 3D RF rectified sheath potentials, RustBCA for erosion yields and surface interactions, and global impurity transport for 3D ion energy-angle distributions and impurity transport. The framework is applied to an ion cyclotron RF-heated L-mode discharge (#57877) in the WEST tokamak, where it predicts a thirty-fold increase in gross tungsten erosion at antenna limiters during the transition from ohmic to ICRH operation. Additionally, under ICRH conditions, a tenfold enhancement in erosion is observed when comparing RF sheath effects to purely thermal sheath conditions. High-charge-state oxygen ions ($\mathrm{O}$ 6+ and above) are identified as the dominant contributors to tungsten sputtering. To validate the model, a synthetic diagnostic tool based on inverse photon efficiency (S/XB coefficients) from the ColRadPy collisional-radiative model enables direct comparison with spectroscopic measurements. Model predictions using a plasma composition of 1% oxygen and 99% deuterium show good agreement with observed W − I (400.9 nm) emission for discharge #57877, supporting the accuracy of the STRIPE framework. This study focuses specifically on gross erosion calculations to demonstrate STRIPE’s capabilities. Future extensions of this work will incorporate net erosion, re-deposition, self-sputtering effects, and whole-device modeling of sputtered tungsten impurity transport. STRIPE is also being applied to other RF-heated linear and toroidal devices, offering valuable insights for antenna design, impurity control, and performance optimization in next-generation fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Random Sampling Process Leads to Overestimation of β-Diversity of Microbial Communities

The site-to-site variability in species composition, known as β-diversity, is crucial to understanding spatiotemporal patterns of species diversity and the mechanisms controlling community composition and structure. However, quantifying β-diversity in microbial ecology using sequencing-based technologies is a great challenge because of a high number of sequencing errors, bias, and poor reproducibility and quantification. Herein, based on general sampling theory, a mathematical framework is first developed for simulating the effects of random sampling processes on quantifying β-diversity when the community size is known or unknown. Also, using an analogous ball example under Poisson sampling with limited sampling efforts, the developed mathematical framework can exactly predict the low reproducibility among technically replicate samples from the same community of a certain species abundance distribution, which provides explicit evidences of random sampling processes as the main factor causing high percentages of technical variations. In addition, the predicted values under Poisson random sampling were highly consistent with the observed low percentages of operational taxonomic unit (OTU) overlap (<30% and <20% for two and three tags, respectively, based on both Jaccard and Bray-Curtis dissimilarity indexes), further supporting the hypothesis that the poor reproducibility among technical replicates is due to the artifacts associated with random sampling processes. Finally, a mathematical framework was developed for predicting sampling efforts to achieve a desired overlap among replicate samples. Our modeling simulations predict that several orders of magnitude more sequencing efforts are needed to achieve desired high technical reproducibility. These results suggest that great caution needs to be taken in quantifying and interpreting β-diversity for microbial community analysis using next-generation sequencing technologies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction of Calcium Oxalate Stone Risk with Interventions

Introduction Mitigations intended to reduce bone mineral loss in-flight also influence the level of renal stone risk to astronauts. Extending a recent study completed by our group [1], we investigate the likely influence of combined fluid intake and Ca excretion mitigation strategies. Methods A computational biochemistry model representing CaOx crystal precipitation, growth, and agglomeration [2] is combined with a probabilistic analysis to predict the in-flight CaOx renal stone incidence risk ratio (IRR) relative to pre-flight values using 1517 astronaut 24-hour urine chemistries. The output of this simulation is used to assess the combined impact of controlling fluid intake and Ca excretion on maintaining IRR < 1.2 for > 95% of the population, a threshold determined from initial analysis of the model output compared to referent populations [1]. Results and Conclusions Figure 1 illustrates the simulated in-flight astronaut population (n=40000) with CaOx IRR > 1.2. The red lines indicate the known clinical risk boundary of each factor, and the white box is considered the area of high combined clinical risk. The simulation and identified risk threshold conform well to the expected clinical risk boundaries. The results, assuming insensible water losses equal or exceed 0.7 L/day, imply mitigations achieve risks similar to pre-flight levels when either Ca < 150 mg/day or fluid volume intake > 3.2 L/day individually, or combined Ca < 200 and fluid volume intake > 2.5 L/day. We continue to investigate similar compounded effects and look to apprise engineering trades by informing relative risk changes during mission design. References [1] D. A. Goodenow-Messman, S. A. Gokoglu, M. Kassemi, and J. Myers, Jerry G., “Characterization of Astronaut CaOx Renal Stone Incidence Rates to Quantify In-flight and Post-flight Relative Risk,” npj Microgravity, in review, 2021. [2] M. Kassemi and D. Thompson, “Prediction of renal crystalline size distributions in space using a PBE analytic model. 1. Effect of microgravity-induced biochemical alterations,” Am. J. Physiol. Physiol., vol. 311, no. 3, pp. F520–F530, Sep. 2016, doi: 10.1152/ajprenal.00401.2015.

Debra A Goodenow↗

Thermodynamic and Kinetic Modulation of Methylammonium Lead Bromide Crystallization Revealed by In Situ Monitoring

Hybrid organic–inorganic perovskite (HOIP) crystals are promising optoelectronic materials, but little is known about either the thermodynamic and kinetic controls on crystal growth or the underlying growth mechanism(s). Herein, we use fluid cell atomic force microscopy (AFM) and solution nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to investigate growth of the model HOIP crystal CH 3 NH 3 PbBr 3 (MAPbBr 3 ) and to determine how formic acid (HCOOH) modulates the thermodynamics and kinetics of growth. The results show that growth of MAPbBr 3 in dimethylformamide (DMF) proceeds through the classical pathway by the spreading of atomic crystal steps generated at screw dislocations on the {100} surface. Temperature dependent step velocity measurements demonstrate that with increasing concentration, HCOOH decreases both the solubility of MAPbBr 3 and the kinetic coefficient (b) of step movement. 1 H-NMR measurements indicate that HCOOH increases the lifetime of the methylammonium (MA + ) ions and promotes the association of MAPbBr 3 , thus tuning the solubility of the perovskite. HCOOH also alters the molecular tumbling motion and bulk diffusion of the MA + ions, possibly via H-bonding. Further, our findings establish a direct correlation between the mesoscale crystal growth kinetics and the molecular-scale interactions between organic additives and constituent ions, providing unprecedented insights for developing predictive syntheses of HOIP crystals with defined size, crystal habit and shape, and defect distribution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Identifying multiscale zonation and assessing the relative importance of polygon geomorphology on carbon fluxes in an Arctic tundra ecosystem

Abstract We develop a multiscale zonation approach to characterize the spatial variability of Arctic polygonal ground geomorphology and to assess the relative controls of these elements on land surface and subsurface properties and carbon fluxes. Working within an ice wedge polygonal region near Barrow, Alaska, we consider two scales of zonation: polygon features (troughs, centers, and rims of polygons) that are nested within different polygon types (high, flat, and low centered). In this study, we first delineated polygons using a digital elevation map and clustered the polygons into four types along two transects, using geophysical and kite‐based landscape‐imaging data sets. We extrapolated those data‐defined polygon types to all the polygons over the study site, using the polygon statistics extracted from the digital elevation map. Based on the point measurements, we characterized the distribution of vegetation, hydrological, thermal, and geochemical properties, as well as carbon fluxes, all as a function of polygon types and polygon features. Results show that nested polygon geomorphic zonation—polygon types and polygon features—can be used to represent distinct distributions of carbon fluxes and associated properties, as well as covariability among those properties. Importantly, the results indicate that polygon types have more power to explain the variations in those properties than polygon features. The approach is expected to be useful for improved system understanding, site characterization, and parameterization of numerical models aimed at predicting ecosystem feedbacks to the climate.

Wainwright, Haruko M.↗

Controlling Subsurface Fractures and Fluid Flow: A Basic Research Agenda

From beneath the surface of the earth, we currently obtain about 80-percent of the energy our nation consumes each year. In the future we have the potential to generate billions of watts of electrical power from clean, green, geothermal energy sources. Our planet’s subsurface can also serve as a reservoir for storing energy produced from intermittent sources such as wind and solar, and it could provide safe, long-term storage of excess carbon dioxide, energy waste products and other hazardous materials. However, it is impossible to underestimate the complexities of the subsurface world. These complexities challenge our ability to acquire the scientific knowledge needed for the efficient and safe exploitation of its resources. To more effectively harness subsurface resources while mitigating the impacts of developing and using these resources, the U.S. Department of Energy established SubTER – the Subsurface Technology and Engineering RD&D Crosscut team. This DOE multi-office team engaged scientists and engineers from the national laboratories to assess and make recommendations for improving energy-related subsurface engineering. The SubTER team produced a plan with the overall objective of “adaptive control of subsurface fractures and fluid flow.”This plan revolved around four core technological pillars—Intelligent Wellbore Systems that sustain the integrity of the wellbore environment; Subsurface Stress and Induced Seismicity programs that guide and optimize sustainable energy strategies while reducing the risks associated with subsurface injections; Permeability Manipulation studies that improve methods of enhancing, impeding and eliminating fluid flow; and New Subsurface Signals that transform our ability to see into and characterize subsurface systems. The SubTER team developed an extensive R&D plan for advancing technologies within these four core pillars and also identified several areas where new technologies would require additional basic research. In response, the Office of Science, through its Office of Basic Energy Science (BES), convened a roundtable consisting of 15 national lab, university and industry geoscience experts to brainstorm basic research areas that underpin the SubTER goals but are currently underrepresented in the BES research portfolio. Held in Germantown, Maryland on May 22, 2015, the round-table participants developed a basic research agenda that is detailed in this report. Highlights include the following: -A grand challenge calling for advanced imaging of stress and geological processes to help understand how stresses and chemical substances are distributed in the subsurface—knowledge that is critical to all aspects of subsurface engineering; -A priority research direction aimed at achieving control of fluid flow through fractured media; -A priority research direction aimed at better understanding how mechanical and geochemical perturbations to subsurface rock systems are coupled through fluid and mineral interactions; -A priority research direction aimed at studying the structure, permeability, reactivity and other properties of nanoporous rocks, like shale, which have become critical energy materials and exhibit important hallmarks of mesoscale materials; -A cross-cutting theme that would accelerate development of advanced computational methods to describe heterogeneous time-dependent geologic systems that could, among other potential benefits, provide new and vastly improved models of hydraulic fracturing and its environmental impacts; -A cross-cutting theme that would lead to the creation of “geo-architected materials” with controlled repeatable heterogeneity and structure that can be tested under a variety of thermal, hydraulic, chemical and mechanical conditions relevant to subsurface systems; -A cross-cutting theme calling for new laboratory studies on both natural and geo-architected subsurface materials that deploy advanced high-resolution 3D imaging and chemical analysis methods to determine the ;rates and mechanisms of fluid-rock processes, and to test predictive models of such phenomena. Many of the key energy challenges of the future demand a greater understanding of the subsurface world in all of its complexity. This greater under- standing will improve the ability to control and manipulate the subsurface world in ways that will benefit both the economy and the environment. This report provides specific basic research pathways to address some of the most fundamental issues of energy-related subsurface engineering.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗